I believe that we can accept a single-digit % increase, and then that's going to impact our order values and also pieces per order, so we will monitor these factors closely. Sorry, just to build on my question about the shipping costs, what you gain from the users and then what you pay to the delivery company, so would you say that they would offset? So I won't be able to talk about it much in detail, but we would like to partially offset that by passing over parts of that to our users. So another question, so the movements of the active members seems a bit weak looking at it from an external point of view. You mentioned that you're going to focus on the young segment and the families.
As initiatives, when would we be able to see these initiatives come to fruition, so would we be able to expect them to come to fruition soon? So it's not like they will come in in the short term instantly, but they will start to show. So.
The temperature is coming up, although we did experience slight drops, slight decreases. The temperature is coming up, so I think we'll be able to pick up on momentum soon. Yamaoka-san, thank you very much for your questions. Next, Kazahaya-san, go ahead.
Hello, Kazahaya from UBS Securities. Thank you very much. For letting me question, so sorry for going into details, but, this year's promotion-related costs, how should I think of it against the GMV? What's that premise, may I ask? Sure, thank you very much for your question. So I'd like to give you our answer for your first question. The promotion-related expenses against GMV ratio will pretty much be the same or similar as last year, so it's, roughly around 4%, a little or, or a little over 4%. Okay, thank you. Second question is about the budget.
So Yamaoka-san asked about this as well, so you mentioned that the average retail price is expected to go up, and then I guess the average order value will also go up along with it, but would you say that the number of shipments you don't expect that to grow so much? So Kobayashi-san, would you be able to answer that? Sure, thank you very much for your question. So as Sawada mentioned, the price increases by the brands is still continuing slightly, so the average retail prices are expected to go up, that is factored into our budget, but if you also factor in the increase of average order value, that could be a little bit risky to factor it into our budget, so the premise of our plan is that this remains unchanged. Okay, that makes perfect sense, thank you.
My third question is this: it's probably better that I ask this to Hirose-san. ZOZOCOSME has reached JPY 10 billion, congratulations on that, and how much did budget for this fiscal year? Would you be able to inform me of that, please? Sure. So this year's cosmetics budget is roughly around JPY 13 billion. As Sawada mentioned, I don't think we will be able to aim for further growth just with link sales with other fashion items, so we want to really establish our awareness rate for cosmetics. So ZOZOTOWN, for ZOZOTOWN people are coming in to check out fashion, so maybe we can offer, like, daily campaign or some kind of an initiative to attract people to come to ZOZO to check us out on a daily basis for cosmetics. I see.
My last question is this: as Yamaoka-san mentioned, I want to check for GMV for 4Q, so, it seems as though, March was a bit cold and you can sell much. I thought that that was the message, so, we shouldn't worry too much about it once the temperature goes up. Would it be the right way to think of it? And then about LY, third quarter and the fourth quarter it grew significantly, and then I didn't want to see cannibalization, so may I ask about the risk related to cannibalization, please? Sure, so I'd like to answer that.
But first of all, about Yahoo Shopping, LY commerce data, and our data, when you cross-reference these two and see how much cannibalization there is, this is something that we're monitoring constantly, and then we open our shop in LY and then that ratio has not really changed much, so we can say that cannibalization is not really happening. Actually, the number of those who buy from both platforms is growing, so LTV is growing. And then for the third quarter and the fourth quarter, for LY sales, the amount of promotions, the volatility is quite high depending on the promotions they do, so it fluctuates. So if I may say it in a favorable way, there's great potential still, so the customers of LY respond quite positively to the promotions still. Got it, thank you.
So, when it comes to active members, you did mention that, so would you say is it safe for me to understand that once spring comes, the number of active members would not be affected negatively anymore? Well, I think you are on the right track on how to think of it, but what we expect doesn't happen. It doesn't happen, so when it comes to seasonality. So, we only have May to sell spring clothes, so there is a chance that we are going to continue to be impacted by the seasonal factors, so there is no change to our policy to take agile actions, which is unique, you know, which is special that we can do online. Got it, thank you. Thank you for your questions. Next, let's go to Sato-san. Hello, Jefferies, Sato.
Kazahaya-san asked pretty much all the questions, so I'm just going to limit myself to one question. LYC, ID Connections, LINE, Yahoo, what was it, LYP Premium members, so in October and November there were lots of activities that took place, and so through these LINE events, would you say that customers are coming onto your platform? So last time we talked about this, you mentioned that you wanted more traffic coming in from LINE, so through these events, would you say that we're starting to see, like, the traffic lines becoming more visible coming in from LINE? I'd like to answer that. So first of all, are we talking about ZOZOTOWN, the main ZOZOTOWN platform, or ZOZOTOWN on LY Commerce?
So for LY Commerce, we're not really taking actions to bring the traffic from LY Commerce, Yahoo Shopping, sorry, LY Commerce, ZOZOTOWN, to the main ZOZOTOWN. So far, they have no correlation, but there's ZOZOTOWN that we open on Yahoo Shopping, and then, we are seeing a positive effect of LYP on that. So you're saying that for main ZOZOTOWN, one of the challenges from for the main ZOZOTOWN, this is something that you're going to tap into in the future, right, so LYP members, when they come to the main ZOZOTOWN, there's nothing, you know, there's no advantages, there's no merits that they can enjoy.
So we want to do is to have something in place so that they'll, that the LYP members will be able to have some advantages when they come and make a purchase on the main ZOZOTOWN platform. Yes, perfect sense, got it, thank you. Kawano-san, go ahead.
Hello, Kawano from Goldman Sachs. So lots of questions have come out already, so I just want to talk about two questions, maybe they're more medium term. So the first one is this GMV JPY 800 billion, so how do we aim for that?
So, Sawada-san, you explained this before, and then this 50 million of active members, if we progress, I feel like we can reach these targets, but I think what is more difficult is increasing the ZOZO expenditures within fashion purchases, and I'm sure you're taking on different initiatives to do this, but in order for you to reach JPY 800 billion, would you say that you want to increase more of the active members rather than to focus on the frequency, purchase frequency, or would you say that it is difficult to hit that target unless you, you know, get 1 out of 4 purchases being ZOZO Town purchases? So how confident are you, and then what are ways to think about these parameters? Okay, well, let's see.
In terms of the impact, the X-axis is going to give us faster results, I believe, so 1 out of 5 changing to 1 out of 4 times, and then for that to happen, I believe that we need to have new initiatives, so there's where and now. So, you know, as I have been repeating myself, we're taking on different initiatives to increase the upstream contacts, and then on the Y-axis, that's more about increasing active members, and then that's really about focusing steadily on promotions. Sorry for repeating myself, but for this, we need to narrow down and zero in on segments, so which is more difficult? I feel like they are different in nature, so I think we need to sort of change and think outside of the box for the X-axis, and then Y is, you know, us taking on steady efforts.
So I feel like, they're at the bar level in terms of the difficulty. So JPY 800 billion of GMV, would you say that there's, this is well achievable? Are you confident? Well, we need to hit JPY 800 billion.
I see.
Another question is going forward.
There're, you know, you talked about the expansion of the cosmetic category and then the next category, you've already selected the next category. When I heard about cosmetics, I felt like there was a good affinity with fashion, and then it seems like there was a potential number of users as well, but, you know, just based on what you can talk about, I feel like the box that you had on the right-hand side of cosmetics was a little bit smaller than the cosmetic category, so could you give us some hints on what would work for the youngsters or what could work on the females? Is there anything you can share with us at this stage? Thank you.
So out of what I can talk about, well, so ZOZOTOWN is now used by many users in the field of fashion, and that's because we've been able to understand the psychology of users, and then in the future, when we expand into other categories, we don't want to randomly go into categories that we don't know much about, because if we go in that direction, then we would not be different from Yahoo Shopping or Rakuten. So we need to carefully select the categories to go into. We need to be able to propose to our dear users what they want to have, so that's the type of areas we want to go into. I don't know if that answered your question, I apologize. So preparation is taking place. I think you have selected a category or categories and you're preparing already.
Would you plan to launch this this fiscal year? So hopefully we'd like to complete the preparation this year, so that we'll be able to explain this in full next fiscal year, so that's how we're preparing for it. All right, I'm looking forward to that, thank you. Thank you. Kawano-san, thank you. Next, Murata-san, go ahead.
Hello, Murata from JP Morgan. So lots of questions have come out already, so I just want to ask some supplementary questions. So for the fourth quarter, main ZOZOTOWN average pieces per shipment, it has gone up by 4.8%. This is thanks to promotions. So you talked about, with the purchase of JPY 12,000, there will be free shipping. It seems as though they were quite price sensitive. Could you elaborate on this? And then for FY2024, would you say that you will continue to have the same type of policy around it? Okay, so Kobayashi-san will answer that. So this free shipping activity and the impact of that that consists of a big portion, I believe.
So two years ago, for the fourth quarter, the free shipping initiative did not really take place much, but for this FY23, we conducted a total of 10 times of free shipping, and I believe that our users responded quite favorably to this. Okay, and would you plan to do it in the same way for this fiscal year? So we need to monitor the sales and how it develops. Got it, thank you. I have another question, which is, in your explanation, you mentioned that you're taking on a wide range of audience, including young people, so when you think of, like, low-priced fashion online players, there's, like, SHEIN and other players that are growing, so how do you see them? And what is your competitive against, competitive edge against those competitors?
And if you're taking some actions to fight against them, what are they, may I ask? Okay, you'd like to answer that. So we tried out increasing the recall rate among the young people, and then honestly speaking, we found out that they respond to our actions. So when we say teens, we're actually saying 18 years old, 19 years old, so that's really like the lowest age of our target, and it is true that the competitive players are also growing, so we're kind of using that as a backdrop to lower our target segment generation or you know the age. And then we could see that we have more young people coming into us, so it's going rather steadily, and what is happening to the competitors?
We don't have their numbers, so it's hard to say or make a comment, but, I feel like, the result is rather positive. So what you're saying is that you're, when you implement, like, promotions and campaigns, they respond favorably, so would you say that you're not negatively impacted by the competitors? Right, okay, got it. And then my third question is the following about the cost. FY2024, I believe that the rent expenses and the shipping fee will go up, so how do you think about that? And then also, there was, much inventory coming in from the brands to ZOZO, so you rented, a warehouse to store inventory, so would you say that the problem is resolved already? Mm-hmm, I'd like to answer that, or maybe I can ask Yanagisawa-san to answer that. Okay, I'll answer that then.
So in terms of depreciation for the third and the fourth quarter, it took place, and then that's going to have an impact on the first and the second quarter of this fiscal year, and then that will continue into the third and the fourth, and then for the rent expenses, it's the same. So Tsukuba rent expense will come up, will be reported from April this year, but that's really those are the only significant factors. So for depreciation, you have our planned figures on page 14. Oh, I didn't notice that, apologize. And then high level of inventory is no longer a big concern for you, so we had the sales, and then we started to sell down the inventory in the spring and summer season, so it is coming down, the inventory level. Got it, thank you. Murata-san, thank you very much for your question.
We are getting close to the ending time, so we'd like to finish with the four people who have raised their hands. Kanamori-san, go ahead. Hello, Kanamori from Nikko Securities. I'm sorry, I do have quite a lot of questions, so if you can just answer briefly for Yahoo. Actually, in the fourth quarter, it grew, and then I think that was the case for last year, but it remained to be strong this year for Yahoo Shopping. So the fourth quarter and also third quarter comparison, was there any initiatives that worked strongly? What worked favorable for ZOZO? Sure, Hirose-san, would you be able to answer that? Okay, so we're talking about Yahoo Shopping, right?
So as it was explained, we had a series of ZOZO Festivals, so in the last fiscal year, we had 2 in January and 1 time in March, and then we had this for January, February, and March, and then February was quite solid, although the timings were different, the effect was great, and also there was LYP Premium members-only point return initiatives that we had this year that we didn't have last year, so that's why it pushed up the GMV growth. Got it.
In relation to that, for this year, LINE Yahoo GMV grew by 10.2%, and then, I believe that you expected this to be 0% growth, so you're seeing 10.2% growth, and then the first half was strong because there was not much promotions, and then in the second half, the volatility of the advertisement was greater, so you didn't really expect growth, so how do you look at the year? So I'd like to answer that.
So the growth expectation for Yahoo Shopping was 0%, and that's because we didn't know how much promotions they were going to implement, so that's why we said 0%, but they continued to strengthen their promotions, so that's why we were able to have this result, positive result, but for this year, we're expecting a little over 10% of growth, given the premise that they will continue to have the same promotions, and then for the first year, for the first half, you expect the same as last year? Yes, and if you go to slide 25, when you talked about the recall rate among the young people, young segment, this recall graph indicates the top four, and then if that's the case, I believe that you're number two. Did you extract the top four players on this chart, or no?
And then, you know, SHEIN came up. Is SHEIN included here? And you mentioned that you implemented initiatives to fight against the competitors. Would you be able to briefly talk about what you did? Sure, I'd like to explain that. So for page 25, we selected companies that are similar to us, so it's not the top ranking ones. That's not what we had in mind when we created this, and then there were players that had real stores in the beginning, but we excluded them, and then we just narrowed down to the ones that have a similar business model. And then is SHEIN included here? So when you look at the changes, I feel like you can sort of guess whether it's included or not, and then what did we do to fight against them?
So we're taking different initiatives, actually, so we are co-sponsoring events as we have explained, and then we haven't aired commercials, but we have posted video ads, and then there's also, like, student discount service, I wouldn't really call it service, actually, but so if you can prove that you are a young person, we give points to them, so we're doing numerous things. I see, and page 28, I want to know about the traffic to niau, so it says the number of visits within 30 per 30 days, so I can understand how people could be excited right after going to niaul ab, but how are they reacting 6 months in time or, you know, 1 year in time? So I'm sure we are monitoring, but I don't have the data.
On the spot right now that I can share. Okay, so in the GMV plan, you mentioned that you don't have any special plans included. You did talk about the evolution of WEAR, and you're planning on having a press conference. Would that have an impact on your business, or would you say that WEAR is not to monetize, so the renewal is a big thing, but you don't think that that's going to have a direct impact on GMV or profit? So I thought, you know, you're holding a press conference on this, so what's the impact of WEAR, I wondered.
Okay, so WEAR monetization just with WEAR, that's not the objective, and this has been the case, and going forward, yeah, we may be able to place, we do have placements of ads, we are generating a little bit, but compared to ZOZOTOWN, the amount of sales we're generating is rather small, so it has a different role for WEAR, which is to really catch the demand, and so people are actually coming to WEAR, and then they also come to ZOZOTOWN, so that traffic line exists already, so we want to strengthen that, and then we'll go into details on that, on the 9th of May. Got it, thank you, Kanamori-sama, thank you. Next, Okumura-sama, thank you, you're up next. All right, thank you, Okumura from Okasan Securities.
Just one confirmation, so the OP guidance and the cost, sorry for repeating the question, but for the margin for this fiscal year, you believe that it's going to be the same level as the same as last year, but there's going to be depreciation and rent expenses of the new logistics base, and I think that amounts to about JPY 3 billion in fixed costs, but you also mentioned that the promotion cost is going to be the same, and then the shipping fee is going to be offsetting each other, so why do you think that is the same? Would you expect for cost control, further cost controls elsewhere? So Yanagisawa will answer that.
Okay, so we are planning to suppress the personnel cost to a certain level, so in terms of cost controls or cost reductions, it's the payroll, the personnel cost that we are planning to curb, so would you say that that's going to be about JPY 3 billion-JPY 4 billion impact? I can't really give you specific numbers around it. Okay, no problem, thank you, Fuminori-sama, thank you for your question. Next, Oliver, go ahead.
Oh, hi, thank you, just a question on cosmetics. You mentioned you have a NAS now from Shiseido, congratulations. Could you explain what, where you think you are in the acquisition progress from when you started versus where you want to be? Are you like halfway there, or is it going to, you know, are you like 70%? Just a rough guess of where you are.
I think there's still a lot of brands you can add, but I want to just feel that, and then maybe could you comment in terms of the cosmetics kind of, conversion purchase? I think, you're learning a lot of things. How is the conversion rate going versus when you started to now? Thank you. [Foreign Language]
Thanks, it's David Gibson from MST Financial. Two questions. Firstly, on the shops, the number declined, quarter-over-quarter by about 10. Can you tell me how many were new, how many actually churned? Perhaps provide any details on that churn and what proportion, were from the consolidation to brands, and do you think this will be ongoing into this fiscal year? The second question, similarly, the number of employees actually declined quarter-over-quarter in the fourth quarter.
Could you confirm why, and what are your hiring plans for fiscal year 2025? Thank you.
All right, sorry, for the second part of your question, what decreased?
The number of employees declined.
The number of employees, got it. Thank you. Got it.
And the hiring, what is the hiring plans for this year?
Got it. Thank you.
Thank you.
This is David Gibson from MST.