Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corporation (TYO:3289)
Japan flag Japan · Delayed Price · Currency is JPY
1,223.00
+1.50 (0.12%)
Sep 30, 2026, 11:30 AM JST
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Earnings Call: Q2 2026

Nov 14, 2025

Summary

Full-year earnings and dividend forecasts were revised upward on strong real estate and investor sales. Key segments, including Urban Development and Real Estate Agents, delivered robust profit growth, while the renewable energy portfolio expanded.

Speaker 1

Please refer to the financial highlights fiscal year 2025, second quarter ended September 30th, 2025. Please turn to page five. First, I will explain the current situation and initiatives aimed at achieving our midterm management plan. We have revised our full-year earnings forecast upward to an operating profit of JPY 160 billion and a net profit of JPY 90 billion. This revision reflects stronger than expected performance in our real estate agents business and sales to investors compared to our initial projections. We have also revised our ROE target to 10.7% and anticipate an EPS growth rate of 16% for the current fiscal year. We recognize that progress is proceeding smoothly in the first year of our mid-term management plan. Please turn to page six. In line with the revision to our earnings forecast, we have also revised our annual dividend forecast, increasing it by JPY 2.5 to JPY 44.5.

We expect the dividend payout ratio to be 35.3%, the same level as our initial forecast. We will continue to increase dividends in line with our profit growth. Please turn to page seven. This is the logic tree for enhancing corporate value, as explained in our mid-term management plan. During this mid-term plan period, we are advancing initiatives to further increase ROA across each business segment. This aims to maintain and improve ROE while reducing financial leverage. We will now explain the current status and initiatives regarding the Greater Shibuya Area strategy and fee income expansion. Please turn to page eight. In the Greater Shibuya Area, our group's stronghold, we aim to further enhance the city's appeal and expand our group's profits. The Greater Shibuya Area remains highly popular, especially among young people, as a desirable place to work, and office supply and demand continue to be tight.

All office rent revisions in the Greater Shibuya Area this fiscal year have been agreed upon with increases, achieving an average rent increase exceeding 10%. We will continue supplying high-quality offices, residences, hotels, and other properties in the Greater Shibuya Area. We will also persist in initiatives that further enhance the city's appeal, such as the collaboration with Netflix outlined here. Please turn to page nine. We will now explain our Real Estate Agents business, which has been growing significantly in recent years. Operating profit for the Real Estate Agents business is projected to reach JPY 51.5 billion this fiscal year. This represents approximately 3.8 x the level of five years ago. Furthermore, the operating profit margin has also increased substantially compared to the past. Tokyu Livable's real estate brokerage transaction volume exceeded JPY 2.2 trillion last fiscal year, securing the top position in the industry for the second consecutive year.

This increase in transaction volume is not solely due to rising real estate prices. It is also driven by a substantial increase in the number of transactions handled. Tokyu Livable continues to open new offices. Furthermore, the number of transactions handled per salesperson has also increased, creating a virtuous cycle of expanding resource investment and improving productivity. Please turn to page 10. Tokyu Livable's growth stems from the organizational culture reforms we've pursued for over a decade. We have thoroughly implemented the practice of sharing acquired real estate information companywide rather than having individual departments hoard it, enabling us to respond more accurately to customer needs. In addition to acting as intermediary in real estate transactions, we also develop income-generating properties by effectively utilizing acquired real estate information.

For example, there are numerous cases where Tokyu Livable has developed rental housing on land with challenging topography that would otherwise be difficult to sell. For example, we have numerous cases where Tokyu Livable developed rental housing on land with poor topography that would have been difficult to sell as is, then commercialized it as income generating real estate, making the sale possible. This mindset of maximizing the value of real estate information is deeply ingrained in employees, and we recognize this as Tokyu Livable's greatest strength. Please turn to page 11. We will explain our company's challenges in enhancing corporate value. The graph on the left plots the figures for seven major domestic real estate companies with ROE on the horizontal axis and PER on the vertical axis. Our company is shown in green, while the average of the other six companies is represented by the dark gray circle.

Although our ROE is relatively high, our PER remains low, and we recognize improving this as a key challenge. To improve our PER, we will pursue high growth and efficiency while enhancing our resilience to market fluctuation. This will further strengthen the sustainability of our high EPS growth rate and ROE level. Please refer to the graph on the right. Our EPS achieved average annual growth exceeding 30% over the three years of the previous medium-term plan period. Furthermore, we anticipate 16% EPS growth for the current fiscal year. Going forward, we will continue management focused on EPS growth, while of course ensuring the continued achievement of ROE that reliably exceeds the cost of equity. Please turn to page 14.

Regarding the business environment, while the outlook remains challenging due to rising construction costs and interest rates along with the impact of U.S. tariff measures, we anticipate no significant changes in the near term. The status of each business segment is as previously described. We recognize that the office market is accelerating its strong performance. We will pay even closer attention to changes in the business environment. Please turn to page 16. Regarding the second quarter results for the fiscal year ending March 2025, revenue and profits increased primarily driven by Urban Development with strong performance in sales to investors, et cetera, and occupancy rates at offices and commercial facilities, as well as Real Estate Agents with robust real estate brokerage business. Please turn to page 18. This is an overview of the balance sheet.

Compared to the end of the previous fiscal year, fixed assets and land and buildings for sale have increased due to progress in investment and are progressing in line with expectations. Please turn to page 20. Please take a look at the investment results in the table below. Capital investments have mainly been in renewable energy power generation facilities and hotels, while investments in land and buildings for sale have focused mainly on rental housing and logistics facilities. We are making steady progress towards our full-year plan. Please turn to page 21. We have revised upward our full-year earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2026, anticipating strong performance in our brokerage business and sales to investors. Please turn to page 24. Trends in sales to investors.

The graph on the left shows that operating profit from sales to investors in the second quarter reached JPY 17.4 billion, primarily from rental housing and offices and commercial facilities representing an increase. For the full year, we plan to achieve a slight increase to JPY 53.1 billion from the initial forecast marking a year-on-year profit increase with over 60% of sales already secured through contracts. The right side shows the Balance Sheet BS and total investment amount for sales to investors. With total investments of approximately JPY 1 trillion, we have prepared a well balanced and broad range of assets including offices and commercial facilities, rental housing, industrial logistics facilities, and renewable energy. We will systematically sell this JPY 1 trillion worth of properties held for sale. Please turn to page 26. Next I will explain the overview by segment. First regarding the Urban Development Business segment.

For the second quarter we achieved increased revenue and profit compared to the previous year and we planned for similar results for the full year. The segment continues to perform well overall, driven by improved occupancy rates for offices and commercial facilities particularly in the Greater Shibuya Area and an increase in sales to investors. Please turn to page 27. The vacancy rate graph is shown below. The vacancy rate at the end of September was 0.6%, remaining extremely low. The average office rent is JPY 30,930 per tsubo per month. Due to rent increases centered on the Greater Shibuya Area, the average rent is trending upward. Please turn to page 31. Sales indicators for condominium units. For the fiscal year ending March 2026, the total number of units recorded is 899. While the number of units decreased from the previous period, the plan focuses on higher priced properties.

The gross profit margin shown in the lower left graph is projected at 31% for the full year, revised u pward by one percentage point from the initial forecast. The high gross profit margin is expected to continue. Sales of condominiums remain robust with contracted units progressing to 91% of the sales forecast. Please turn to page 32. This is our land bank for condominiums. Sales have already begun in Osaka Umeda, Osaki, Kitanaka, Toyosu, and Nishinomiya and other locations scheduled to be recorded from next fiscal year onwards and are going well. The balance of contracts secured for the next fiscal year and beyond has risen to approximately JPY 130 billion. Investments are also progressing smoothly with our land bank totaling approximately 10,300 units from next fiscal year onwards and construction has already begun on all large scale projects for the first three years of our medium-term management plan.

In addition, redevelopment properties which we have been focusing on in recent years account for most of our land bank. Please turn to page 33. Regarding rental housing for sale to investors, we are strengthening our rental housing business for sales to investors primarily targeting sales to REITs sponsored by Tokyu Land Corporation against the backdrop of a robust market where the pace of rent increases is accelerating. We are advancing the acquisition of properties in prime locations primarily within Tokyo's 23 wards and steadily promoting their development into marketable assets. We are striving to enhance added value such as introducing shared area services to strengthen the competitive advantage of our rental properties. Please turn to page 34. Regarding Strategic Investment Business segment, the second quarter saw a decrease in revenue, but an increase in profit compared to the previous year.

The infrastructure and industry business segment recorded a decrease in profit due to the absence of proceeds from investor sales. The overseas business segment saw an overall increase in profit as the U.S. business improved its interim results. For the full-year forecast, we anticipate increased revenue and profit based on the expected improvement in the U.S. business and increased proceeds from sales in the industry business segment. Regarding the overseas business, which continues to operate at a loss, we plan to reduce the deficit as shown in the table on the upper right, driven by factors such as the reversal of prior period valuation losses in the U.S. and improved interim profitability. Please turn to page 35. This is about our renewable energy business portfolio.

As of the end of September 2025, we had a total of 293 projects with a rated capacity of 2,674 MW, making us one of the largest in Japan. Furthermore, the FIT ratio is approximately 80% for projects already in operation and approximately 70% for projects that have been secured, making this a stable long-term business. Please turn to page 36. This page shows the electricity sales performance and future plans for our renewable energy business. This is a graph of facilities already in operation. For the fiscal year ending March 2026, we are planning for a gross profit from electricity sales of JPY 9.6 billion, an NOI yield of 9.4%, and an ROA of 2.7%. Regarding the facilities which have been secured, for fiscal year 2030, we expect gross profit from electricity sales to grow to JPY 13.6 billion, with an NOI yield improving to 11.2% and an ROA of 3.8%.

Please turn to page 37. Regarding the value chain of renewable energy businesses, O&M, which is expected to grow going forward, currently has steadily expanding managed contracted capacity with an external contract ratio of 75%. To strengthen non-FIT business, we are actively developing new customers. For offsite PPAs, we are steadily expanding our client base, including companies like ASKUL and DNP. We will focus on expanding our non-asset business to solidify our foundation for generating revenue across the entire renewable energy value chain. Please turn to page 39. Regarding the income and expenditure characteristics of renewable energy businesses, a key feature is that they possess a significantly different income and expenditure structure compared to the real estate leasing business.

The book value of power generation facilities is almost entirely capitalized assets, and since they are generally depreciated over 20 years, as shown in the graph on the upper right, ROE improves at an accelerating rate over time. We will pursue profit growth as a highly efficient and stable business. Please turn to page 40. I will now explain the logistics facility business. We have achieved sales at high profit margins and are making progress in acquiring new projects in prime locations. This has enabled us to increase both the investment balance of secured facilities and the total investment amount. Please turn to page 42. Regarding our U.S. business, we will strengthen investments in preferred equity and long-term holding projects, which account for approximately 20% of the total investment balance of about JPY 200 billion to secure stable profits and improve profitability. Please turn to page 43.

Regarding our Asian business, we are advancing multiple projects in various Asian countries, including Indonesia, in collaboration with excellent partners. Please turn to page 44. This is about the Property Management business segment. in the second quarter, revenue increased, but profits decreased year-on-year. The decrease in profits was due to sales to investors, et cetera. For the full year, we are forecasting increases in revenue and profits year-on-year. We expect profits to increase due to continued strong performance in the hotel business, et cetera. Please turn to page 45. Tokyu Community's Property Management business provides high-quality services that leverages its know-how in a wide range of business fields, and it also undertakes property management contracts from outside the group, boasting an industry-leading track record. Please turn to page 46. The occupancy status of Tokyu Stay is shown in the lower left.

Driven by factors such as expanding inbound demand, the average RevPAR for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 ending March 2026 increased by 10% compared to the previous quarter, continuing the trend of high occupancy and higher rates. Please turn to page 47. This is about the Real Estate Agents business segment. In the second quarter, we saw increased revenue and profits due to strong performance in brokerage and real estate sales, and we expect the same to be true for the full year. Please turn to page 48. Let me break down the growth in sales brokerage. This shows the breakdown of commission income growth for the retail brokerage business. Through productivity improvements and an increase in sales personnel, we have achieved growth in both the number of transactions handled and the transaction volume, leading to a significant increase in commission income. Please turn to page 49.

We have similarly broken down the wholesale segment into its components. Through intensified efforts on large-scale projects, the average transaction price is trending upward. As shown in the pie chart on the right, we handle diverse real estate assets and meet a broad range of customer needs. That concludes my explanation.