Trend Micro Incorporated (TYO:4704)
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Apr 28, 2026, 3:30 PM JST
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Earnings Call: Q1 2025

May 8, 2025

Kevin Simzer
EVP, Trend Micro

This is the first quarter summary result. The revenue has grown by 2%, and the operating profit has increased by 24%. The operating profit margin is growing nicely. We will be presenting another slide to explain this in detail. Out of this operating profit, due to the stock price increase, there are some remuneration linked to the stock price that is included here. If the stock price does not go up, then in practical, there is an increase of 34%. The recurring profit is minus 10%. The main reason is due to the translation loss of the exchange rate. Because of the lower dollar, higher yen, there was some translation loss, and that is posted here. The spread gap is minus 8%, and this is totally different from the previous quarter. What is happening is explained by using this slide.

That is mainly coming from the consumer business of minus 27%. The reason for that, already in the fourth quarter last fiscal year, as we have explained in the earnings result meeting, there is the EC payment processing company in overseas digital company, and this function is non-functional effectively. In order to avoid any inconvenience to our customers, we have extended the renewal license by two months. Two months in the first quarter for overseas, there is almost a non-sales posted there. In May, we have replaced with a new vendor, and the venue has started to be posted. We are going to go back to the normal in May. There are no changes after May. That is the major reason for this big drop in consumer. As I have mentioned earlier, the increase in the stock price. $1.2 billion.

This variable bonus or the remuneration is included here. In reality, there is an increase of profit by 34%. This is the full year forecast. First quarter, we are in line with our plan for the revenue and the operating income. The pre-gap, as I mentioned earlier, the fourth quarter last year and the first quarter this year, there is a very big gap. Kevin will explain about this later on. The revenue for the enterprises, there is an uncertainty in macro environment, and that has been impacting the first quarter result, we believe. Enterprise ARR, the subscription has seen a double-digit growth. The details will be explained by Kevin later on. The cash flow, this is growing nicely as well. The number of headcounts? I have made exactly the same comment.

The reason for this decrease in headcount is because of having a flat organization. Using the new technology, we are trying to turn our organization to be a more flat organization rather than a tiered organization to improve the productivity. This is the cost changes. Comparing this to the previous quarter, this yellow, that is the personnel cost. That is a very big ticket item in the cost. This bonus portion compared against the previous quarter, there is about a JPY 3 billion difference. The cost on the top part of this bar, stock options related cost, the reason why this is growing is because of this JPY 1.2 billion foreign exchange related cost. We are using cloud more effectively now. The highlight for the first quarter is, we have actually achieved the record high quarter operating profit, and operating profit margin is continuing to improve.

This is the full year forecast. As I mentioned earlier, this is in line with our expectation. There are some macroeconomic uncertainties, but this is the full year forecast or the guidelines that we are having. This concludes my presentation. Thank you very much.

Mahendra Negi
CFO, Trend Micro

Japan's enterprise business, as a highlight. Starting with domestic enterprise business, starting with Trend Vision One, although Japan was lagging behind the other markets, Japan too has seen the 305% increase in terms of the net sales coming from the new business. The major reason is that the customers are committing with the Trend Vision One with a multi-year contract has been increasing. With that, per customer sales or the purchase has been increasing. The second highlighting point is that the number of the customers for the Trend Vision One is growing nicely, growing by 36% year- on- year.

As was mentioned by Kevin earlier, the Vision One solution, the number of customers for implementing the multiple solutions are growing here in Japan too, increased by 26% year- on- year. As a low light, Japan, we do have a lot of the users. So CREM, SOC efficiency, by appealing this point more from the existing users and from the new users too, we think that there are more opportunities for us to migrate them over to the Trend Vision One, so we need to accelerate this effort. Next, this is the domestic SME businesses. As a highlight, this is something that we have been growing, but furthermore, actually we have actually achieved a 22% increase from the previous year in terms of the new net sales. It has grown sharply, increased by 39% from the previous year.

The number of customers is growing every quarter, and the same is true for the first quarter too. We have seen a 2.3% increase from the previous year. The one that started from the end of two years ago, that is the managed service provider partners, they have started our XDR services, and its service growth is growing nicely with a 6.49% year-on-year growth, and the number of licenses has increased by 28% year-on-year. Low light point, the local partners, their sales is dropping. What we would like to do is to catch it up and try to capture the volume zone. The last point is about this consumer business. First, about the beyond device security, the sales ratio here in Japan is 33% now.

Not only the antivirus, but integrated security sales, which covers many different products, is growing, to the 27% ratio in the total sales. The customer sales is growing as well. The anti-fraud or anti-scam solution, which we call the Fraud Buster here in Japan, the customer acquisition is growing too. The number of customers has increased to 2.3 times. For the education activities, 40 prefectures out of 47 prefectures, we collaborate with the police agencies, and we are quite active, including the local governments, companies, and the banks. We are educating the people for anti-scams and special scams. Trend Micro, its name has been spreading among the local governments and companies as well. The low light is that there is a challenge to further enhance and improve the awareness of this anti-fraud solution. That concludes my presentation.

Thank you, Matthew Henderson. I would like to ask a simple question about the first question. The enterprise business in the U.S., and you have said that there has been an effect of the smaller budget by the government. We seem to be seeing that. What was the actual size of the government budget, and do you see any room for improvement? If you could give us more detail about the government in the U.S.

Kevin, that's for you, I think.

Kevin Simzer
EVP, Trend Micro

Thanks, Mahendra. Yes. One of the things I love about Trend overall is how global our business actually is. The fact that we do business in close to 200 countries around the world, and our four major regions are pretty equally sized in the enterprise business. We have business around the globe. Within the U.S., though, your question, U.S. government specifically is approximately 10% of our overall U.S. business. Percentage-wise, it's actually quite a small direct share of our overall U.S. business. It is sort of not that big. What we ended up seeing is softness in Q1 in the U.S. government business directly. We also started to see some bleedover, some impact in other enterprises that are doing business with the U.S. government.

An enterprise transaction that we had, we had a multi-million dollar deal that was lined up for Q1, and that multi-million dollar deal was with an enterprise. That enterprise was building an offering, including Trend Vision One Cloud Security for the U.S. government. It also impacted some of our US enterprise business. Going forward, we're starting to see some of the uncertainty get a little bit clearer, and people are working their way through this. We remain optimistic, but it does represent some uncertainty that's out there as to what is going on within the U.S. government and the implications on U.S. government business and enterprise.

Akihiko Omikawa
President, Trend Micro

[Foreign language] ありがとうございます。2点目については。

Just to be honest, I had another question, and I would assume this is what Kevin Simzer is in the best position of responding to. I'm looking at page 23, the right-hand side. This is about the enterprise pipeline you have shown. Unless the pipeline is better, we will not be able to have optimistic earnings. Are there anything that you can tell us that would give us more confidence towards the future comparing from before?

Kevin Simzer
EVP, Trend Micro

Yeah. Thank you for the question. This level of visibility that I provided here, we do not typically provide. I wanted to just felt it was important to give a little bit more insight as to sort of the health of the overall business going forward. On the pipeline specifically, the number is growing. We continue to see our marketing campaigns and our work with strategic partners continue to grow that pipeline. As I was saying in my video presentation, I do not know if it was clear or not, but the pipeline for new business is within the typical metrics that we would look to see in terms of driving new business. We look for about a three-times multiple, and we are well within that three-times multiple for new business across the globe.

Thank you very much for that. In addition to that, last earnings call, the fourth quarter showed a very good pre-GAP compared to that. Pre-GAP enterprise, I am referred to.

We thought that there should be increase year- on- year, but the current situation is perhaps too strong. A fourth quarter has had this effect, I am guessing. Can you also give us your outlook beyond Q2?

Mahendra can chime in at the end here, but I'll just comment that, yeah, from a pipeline perspective, we feel like we've got enough pipeline for Q2 to drive the new business. When you do the year-over-year, our business is quite seasonal. Q4s are seasonally very high for us. That's why we like to give year-over-year comparisons versus quarter over quarter. Yeah, we see that the Q2 pipeline metrics look within the range. Mahendra reiterated that our guidance for the year remains intact. Like I was saying earlier, our net sales was a little bit above, a little bit above our internal plan.

Our operating margin was well above our plan number. We feel like this pre-GAP issue that we had with consumer and with enterprise, we will resume to some normalcy as Q2 and beyond starts to unfold. Mahendra, I do not know if you want to add anything.

Eva Chen
CEO, Trend Micro

This is Eva, and I just chime in. I think I understand that all the analysts and investors are trying to get some clarity of the future, but truthfully, it's really hard for any company to have a very clear future view of how the economy is going to be and how the tariff or the exchange rate change will impact any business. What I will want to say is that initially, I believe investors invest in Trend Micro is because of our post-gap that is composed with a lot of renewable business that provides the stability and predictability of our revenue. If you look at our post-gap and our guidance is on all this post-gap, but if you look at pre-gap, then that's, I think, lost the original reason that you probably want to invest in Trend Micro, which is that stability of the revenue.

We try our best to make sure that our guidance is intact. I just want to say, please, it's just overall the whole world is not sure about the future, and pressing Trend Micro to commit even more is not quite fair.

[Foreign language]ありがとうございました。私からは以上です。

Custom, arigatou gozaimasu.

Thank you very much, Dr. Chris Michael.

Matthew Henderson
Analyst, JPMorgan

Let's hear from the next person.

Kevin Simzer
EVP, Trend Micro

Excuse me, let me add my comment about this government-related business.

The impact to the government-related business, I presume that probably the Trump tariff policy, probably you may think that that is causing the challenge, but actually, that is not the case. The Department of Government Efficiency.

Seems like there is a revisiting of the business carried out by the government, and that is a stronger impact to our business.

That is a rippling effect to the private sector. That is the background. Not the tariff policy, but more of the DOGE-related efficiency effort by the government impacting our business.

Daisuke Tanaka
Strategist, Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanleyの田中です。よろしくお願いします。

Thank you, Tanaka, Morgan Stanley.

今、補足いただいたんですけども。

You have just provided a supplemental comment, but it still is not so clear. Your company for U.S., the percentage of government is small, and private businesses are trying to reduce investments indirectly through their government. If this has to do with security, which is very important, it does not make much sense that they might want to reduce their budget size. Also, for each region, there may be some impact of the consumer, but on the whole, it seems that your APAC, pre-GAP balance seems to be weakened. Maybe there were concentrations, but in fourth quarter, local currency plus 18% YOY. I do not think that there were any special factors. Can you tell us if there are any relationships between the strong fourth quarter and the weaker first quarter?

Kevin Simzer
EVP, Trend Micro

I think that was a two-part question. Yeah, Habarison did a nice job of trying to clarify my comments around the impact of the U.S. government. There are two different programs within the U.S. government. One is the tariffs and trade issues, but the other is DOGE and some of the moving budgets around, postponing, canceling some projects, etc., etc. That does impact directly US government, but it is a small part of our overall business. It does impact enterprises because many enterprises in the U.S. also supply services to U.S. government. If those budgets are frozen or canceled in the U.S. government, the enterprises are impacted. That is why the impact to our overall US business was both in U.S. government and enterprise. I'm sorry, the second question was.

Whether the Q4 strength had some impact also.

Yes. We did see, and I tried to explain that with our overall renewal business. We did see, as a result of finishing, very strong customers had an appetite to actually buy at the end of the year. We did see some pull forward. Some renewals end up pulling forward from Q1 into Q4 of 2024. That explains some of the hypergrowth that we saw in Q4. In the US, for example, we were up 24% year- over- year in Q4. It was a substantial pre-GAP increase in Q4. We did see some deals pull forward, and that is where I was talking about we will start to see that normalize out as Q2 and Q3 unfold.

Daisuke Tanaka
Strategist, Morgan Stanley

Thank you very much.

Q4 was extraordinarily strong, and you expect normalization going forward. The second question, Kevin Sim, and you have talked about this before, reducing multi-year deals.

Kevin Simzer
EVP, Trend Micro

Omikawa-san talked about how in Japan, the comprehensive multi-year deals are increasing in Japan.

Daisuke Tanaka
Strategist, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Okay. I understood. すいません、わかりました。はい、わかりました。ありがとうございます。以上です。

Thank you. My question has been answered. Thank you.

Matthew Henderson
Analyst, JPMorgan

それでは、次の方のミュートを解除させていただきます。

Let's hear from the next person.

Satoru Kikuchi
Analyst, SMBC Nikko Securities

SMBC日興証券、菊地です。

From SMBC Nikko Securities. My name is Kikuchi.

Eva Chen
CEO, Trend Micro

よろしくお願いします。

[Foreign language]

Satoru Kikuchi
Analyst, SMBC Nikko Securities

株主還元方針には変更がないということですね。

I understand that there are no changes to the shareholder return policy. Is that correct?

なかなかお聞きするのも難しいような感じですけど。

Seems like this is a little bit difficult to ask this question, but.

収入を見て自社株買いという。

You mentioned that you may consider doing the share buyback at a good timing when you were making announcement at the year end. I just want to know there are no changes to that policy. No changes to that policy. Thank you. That's all from me. Thank you.

Eva Chen
CEO, Trend Micro

ありがとうございました。その他にご質問はありますか。

Any other person with questions, please?

どなたも挙手されてないようですが。

I am not seeing anyone raise his or her hand.

Daisuke Tanaka
Strategist, Morgan Stanley

NTT Dataさんの本丸なんで、そちら。

You are eager to move on to NTT Data briefing, right?

Mahendra Negi
CFO, Trend Micro

あれはもちろん全社一丸となって、MCも含めて割と。

The entire company.

ないように。

Including MC.

しました。はい。

ちょっと時間があるから、私の方からも。

You have time, so let me add.

ありがとうございます。プリギャップだけ見て。

If you focus only on pre-GAP numbers, we are seeing larger projects recently. There will be more ups and downs. Post-GAP and ARR provide a more easy-to-understand explanation to what's actually happening, perhaps.

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