Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. (TYO:6098)
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Apr 28, 2026, 3:30 PM JST
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Earnings Call: Q4 2024

May 15, 2024

Riko
CEO, Recruit Holdings

Hi, I'm Riko. We are pleased to announce our financial results for fiscal year 2023. In FY 2023, the number of job openings in the U.S. continued to decline significantly, as we had anticipated. This was the first time since job openings have been tracked, that there was a reduction of more than 3 million job openings, despite not being in a recession. This is, of course, due to fluctuations in demand before and after COVID-19 pandemic. However, we believe that it is also associated with demographic changes in the U.S. as well. In the U.S., the population is aging. As you can see in the chart, the working-age population is not growing as strongly as it had been until around 2010.

Partially because of this, although there was a large drop in the number of job openings, the unemployment rate did not rise as much as in the past. While revenue in the U.S. declined in this environment, our global consolidated revenue for FY 2023 was flat year-on-year. By prioritizing operational efficiency in anticipation of the worst economic downturn, Adjusted EBITDA and net income reached record highs. As I mentioned last year, we have always been dedicated to improving efficiency in every downturn. We believe that we have been able to increase our revenue in the past by acting a bit early in the stages where the economy seems to be bottoming out, rather than starting to move after it has been confirmed that the economy has hit bottom. Of course, financial market stress is increasing under high interest rate conditions, and economic uncertainties remain high.

As I mentioned earlier, against the background that the supply of workers to the job market in the U.S. is not increasing significantly as in the past, and even if a recession occurs, we believe that it is unlikely that the number of job openings will decline by another 3 million or so from the current level. We assume that the number of job openings in the U.S. will hit the bottom after decreasing for another 18 or 24 months. In FY 2024, we would like to operate in the year zero of the economic cycle, in the sense that the decline in job demand may bottom out and the trend may turn up in the future. Of course, it is extremely difficult to predict when the economy will improve, and it is also possible that the economy will deteriorate further in the future.

However, we believe improving efficiency should not be done just as a recession countermeasure, with the goal of improving profit margins only. Rather, we would like this year to be one in which we complete the transition to build a structure that will enable us to increase revenue with even greater speed when decline in job demand bottoms out and the economy moves into a period of expansion. As Recruit Group, while it is important to achieve high margins, we believe that our top priority is consistent efficiency of monetization, which has been our focus in recent years. We hope to return to a positive year-on-year revenue trend in the second half of the fiscal year, even during a period of declining job openings.

In the HR market in Japan, we believe it is essential to further strengthen the collaboration between HR Technology and HR Solutions in Matching & Solutions, and to operate them in a unified manner. First, through Indeed PLUS, the job board business of HR Solutions in Matching & Solutions will be transferred to HR Technology, and both will be operated more efficiently. Adjusted EBITDA margin for HR Solutions in Matching & Solutions in FY 2023 was approximately 20.5% before allocation of corporate overhead costs. As the collaboration progresses, we expect there to be some additional costs. However, in the midterm, once the combined operation gets on track, we believe that we can improve the margin to a level that is not significantly different from the margin of HR Technology as a whole....

For Marketing Solutions of Matching & Solutions, we aim to achieve an adjusted EBITDA margin before allocation of corporate overhead costs of around 35%-40% in the midterm by improving productivity. In addition to improving operational efficiency, we also plan to further improve the efficiency of capital. We have continued to manage our capital conservatively, anticipating the worst economic conditions. However, over the next two years, we aim to reduce our net cash and cash equivalents level to approximately JPY 600 billion through strategic business acquisitions and continuing to return value to shareholders, mainly through share repurchases. Here is a summary of what I have just discussed. While it remains unclear whether FY 2025 will be year one of the global economic recovery phase, we want to ensure we are prepared for it.

We hope that FY 2024 will be the year to prepare for the economic expansion period, while also being ready if there is a recession. Now, Jun Arai will discuss the details of our consolidated and individual segment performance and outlook.

Junichi Arai
CFO, Recruit Holdings

Thank you, Riko. I'm Jun Arai. I'll start with a review of the fiscal year 2023 consolidated results and fiscal year 2024 annual guidance, followed by the result and outlook for each segment. The FY 2023 consolidated revenue slightly exceeded the full-year guidance announced in February. It decreased 0.4% to JPY 3.4 trillion, and by region, revenue was JPY 939 billion in the U.S., JPY 1.59 trillion in Japan, and JPY 886 billion in other regions, including Europe and Australia. Adjusted EBITDA increased 9.8% to JPY 598.3 billion, a record high, exceeding the outlook of JPY 585 billion announced in February, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 17.5%.

Operating income increased to JPY 402.5 billion, also a record high, despite one-time charges in each segment. Profit attributable to owners of the parent increased 31.1% to JPY 353.6 billion, another record high. Basic EPS increased 34.0% to JPY 225.99, and adjusted EPS increased 20.9% to JPY 241.11. The per-share dividend amount is JPY 11.5 for the second half and JPY 23 for the full year. ROE was 19.5%. Total amount of dividend and share repurchases was JPY 254.6 billion, for a total payout ratio of 72.0%.

Regarding consolidated balance sheet as of March 31, 2024, net cash increased to JPY 1.13 trillion, and net assets were JPY 2.0 trillion after expending cash for share repurchases, but substantially impacted by exchange rate fluctuations. The number of issued shares as of March 31, 2024, was approximately 1.65 billion shares after retirement of 46 million shares on March 29, which is equal to the number of shares repurchased during the fiscal year through March 15, through a several share repurchase program executed in FY 2023. The number of shares held as treasury stock as of March 31, 2024, was 105 million shares.

After excluding 54 million shares held in a Board Incentive Plan Trust and Employee Stock Ownership Plan Trust, the number of shares held as a treasury stock was 50 million shares, or 3.1% of the issued shares. Through the end of April, through the ongoing share repurchase program, we have repurchased approximately 23.7 million shares, equal to approximately 73% of the maximum total purchase price of JPY 200 billion. The total number of shares held by Japanese business shareholders who are pre-IPO shareholders, has been reduced to below 9% of the issued shares, excluding treasury stock. Regarding guidance, although we provided outlook quarterly in FY 2023, due to the uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, for FY 2024, we are providing full-year guidance in ranges.

Our foreign exchange rate assumptions for FY 2024 are 145 JPY per US dollar, 158 JPY per euro, and 98 JPY per Australian dollar. Based upon the outlook of each segment, consolidated revenue is expected to be in a range of JPY 3.3 trillion-JPY 3.5 trillion, which is equal to a decrease of 3.4% to an increase of 2.4%.... We expect Adjusted EBITDA to be in a range of JPY 570 billion-JPY 675 billion, equal to a decrease of 4.7% to an increase of 12.8%, and Adjusted EBITDA margin to be in a range of 17.3%-19.3%.

Operating income is expected to be in a range of JPY 390 billion-JPY 500 billion, equal to a decrease of 3.1% to an increase of 24.2%. Profit attributable to owners of parent is expected to be in a range of JPY 315 billion-JPY 400 billion, equal to a decrease of 10.9% to an increase of 13.1%. Basic EPS is expected to be in a range of JPY 206-JPY 260, equal to a decrease of 8.8%, to an increase of 15.0%. We expect the per share dividend amount to be JPY 12 for the first and second half, and JPY 24 for the full year. Next, I will explain the result and outlook of each segment.

U.S. dollar revenue for HR Technology for FY 2023 was approximately $7.0 billion, a decrease of 15.0%, slightly above our February outlook of a decrease of approximately 15.5%. On a constant currency basis, revenue decreased 15.2%. By region, revenue in the U.S. decreased 19.3% to $4.84 billion. Revenue outside the U.S. decreased 3.5% to $2.16 billion, of which Japan accounted for $500 million. In the U.S., while total job postings, which include both free and paid ads, continued to decrease, at the same time, in light of the changing business environment, we significantly reduced operational costs, including promotion and advertising expenses, and strictly controlled hiring.

In FY 2023, the total amount of sales commission, promotion expenses, and advertising expenses were approximately 11% of revenue. Employee benefit expenses, service outsourcing expenses total approximately 52% of revenue. Adjusted EBITDA was JPY 344.3 billion, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 34.0%, in line with the outlook announced in February. As for the FY 2024 outlook, revenue on a U.S. dollar basis is expected to be in a range from flat to an increase of 9.5%. Revenue in the U.S. is expected to be in a range from a decrease of 7% to an increase of 5%.

Revenue in Japan is expected to increase around 70% as revenue partially transfers from HR Solutions in Matching & Solutions due to Indeed PLUS, and the revenue in the rest of the world is expected to increase around 2%. On a Japanese yen basis, revenue is expected to increase 0.6%-10.1%. Earlier this week, in HR Technology business, Indeed announced a reduction of approximately 1,000 employees, or approximately 8% of its workforce. The primary purpose of this reduction is to simplify the organizational structure, to make it easier and faster to make the decision and execute that simplified hiring strategy. The estimated cost saving to be realized through this action is expected to be approximately $255 million for approximately 10 months during FY 2024.

The total amount of share-based compensation in FY 2024 is expected to be approximately $550 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be in a range of 33%-36%, and approximately $85 million related to this workforce reduction will be charged as one-off restructuring costs in Q1. Revenue in HR Solutions in FY 2023 increased 2.5% to JPY 305.0 billion, despite the continued decline in revenue in the job advertising service since Q2. Adjusted EBITDA margin for HR Solutions before allocation of corporate overhead costs was approximately 20.5%, significantly increasing from approximately 12% in FY 2022, and adjusted EBITDA was approximately JPY 62.6 billion.

Regarding the outlook for FY 2024, based upon the assumption that Japan's economic environment will be similar to FY 2023 and will not deteriorate significantly, revenue in the placement service is expected to increase. Revenue in HR Solutions in total, however, is expected to decrease in a range from 10%-23%, as revenue in the job advertising service continues to shift to Indeed in Japan, related to the integration with Indeed PLUS. Before allocation of corporate overhead costs, adjusted EBITDA margin for HR Solutions is expected to be approximately 16%-19% due to the impact of Indeed PLUS. We expect to unify the operations of HR Solutions, of Matching & Solutions and HR Technology in order to efficiently accelerate the transformation of the HR matching businesses in Japan into HR Technology business.

Starting from FY 2025 onward, we are considering combining HR Solutions in Matching & Solutions with HR Technology in a single reporting segment, allowing us to more effectively show the progress and evolution of the business to capital market participants. In Marketing Solutions, as in the first half of the year, revenue in a total of beauty, travel, dining, where the value added by a SaaS solution is most likely to be reflected, combined with SaaS solutions, accounted for approximately 50% of revenue in Marketing Solutions and increased approximately 15% to approximately JPY 246.9 billion, primarily due to a revenue increase in travel and beauty. Housing and real estate is the largest vertical in Marketing Solutions, and revenue increased approximately 5% to approximately JPY 143.6 billion, accounting for approximately 29% of Marketing Solutions.

Others, including car, education, bridal, and others, accounted for approximately 21% of revenue in Marketing Solutions. As a result, revenue in Marketing Solutions increased 9.0% to JPY 492.4 billion. Regarding the three KPIs most important to our Help Businesses Work Smarter strategy, the number of actions was approximately 480 million. Accumulative number of registered SaaS accounts increased to approximately 3.7 million due to growth of new business clients as of March 31, 2024. Gross payment volume in FY 2023 increased to approximately JPY 1.8 trillion. As all KPIs increased, we believe that we are making progress toward our goal of creating an ecosystem in Japan. Adjusted EBITDA margin for Marketing Solutions before allocating corporate overhead cost was approximately 28%, an increase from approximately 25% in FY 2022.

Adjusted EBITDA was approximately JPY 138 billion as we executed cost control measures. In FY 2024, revenue in Marketing Solutions is expected to increase in the range from 1.5%-9.0%, driven by a solid recovery and growth of the market post-pandemic, especially in beauty, dining, and housing and real estate. Adjusted EBITDA margin for Marketing Solutions before allocating corporate overhead cost is expected to be in a range from approximately 29%-31% as we focus on improving efficiencies while continuing to invest in SaaS solutions. For Matching & Solutions segment, revenue in FY 2023 increased 6.2% to JPY 807.8 billion. The total amount of sales commission, promotion expenses, and advertising expenses were approximately 23% of revenue.

Employee benefit expenses and service outsourcing expenses totaled approximately 40% of revenue. Adjusted EBITDA for others and eliminations was approximately -JPY 37 billion. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the segment improved significantly from 14.4% in FY 2022 to 20.3% in FY 2023, and adjusted EBITDA increased to JPY 163.6 billion. This improvement was a result of cost control and agile investment approach based upon the financial situation, allowing for quick responses to an uncertain business environment. For FY 2024, Matching & Solutions revenue is expected to be in the range from a decrease of 7.7% to an increase of 1.8%, and adjusted EBITDA margin, including others and eliminations, is expected to be 20%-23%. In the event of any sudden changes in our environment, we are prepared to respond flexibly.

Revenue in Staffing for FY 2023 was JPY 1.63 trillion, an increase of 3.1%. For Japan, revenue increased 9.9% to JPY 751.6 billion, driven by the increase in the number of temporary staff on assignment due to increased demand. Revenue in Europe, U.S., and Australia were JPY 442.5 billion, JPY 244.0 billion, and JPY 196.0 billion, respectively. A decrease of 2.1% in total or 9.2% on a constant currency basis, as demand for staffing services continued to slow down against a backdrop of an uncertain economic outlook. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 6.0%, and adjusted EBITDA decreased 4.2% to JPY 97.9 billion.

Revenue in FY 2024 for Staffing is expected to increase in the range from 0.1% to 0.9%. Revenue in Japan is expected to increase approximately 5% based upon assumption that there will be no rapid change in economic environment. For Europe, US, and Australia, we expect revenue to decrease in a range from 2.5% to 4%, as the outlook of the labor market environment in Europe and the US and its impact to the staffing business is still uncertain. We aim to maintain a 5.5%-6% adjusted EBITDA margin as we continue to operate efficiently. Finally, let's discuss capital allocation.

As Riko mentioned earlier, while continuing to further our business growth strategy, continuing to pay stable dividends in accordance with our capital allocation policy and with a focus on strategic M&As and further shareholder returns, we aim to reduce net cash or cash and cash equivalents less debt to approximately JPY 600 billion by the end of March 2026. This is expected to result in maintaining or increasing ROE and total payout ratio. As we step forward with our growth strategy as a global tech company, we are grateful for the understanding and support of our shareholders, capital market participants, and all of our stakeholders. This concludes my presentation. Thank you very much!

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