Thank you very much for the kind introduction. I am Kengo Sakurada, Group CEO of SOMPO Holdings. The emcee said the presentation will take 30 minutes, but I will try to be brief so that we can allocate more time for Q&A. I'd like to first thank all the participants for taking time out of their busy schedules to join our IR meeting today. Our first- half results and revised full-year guidance for fiscal 2021 were announced on November 19. What I'd like to achieve today is to help you understand the progress of the midterm management plan that started this fiscal year. After my presentation on the progress of the management targets and the various initiatives carried out so far, we will have some time for Q&A. Please turn to page three.
First and foremost, I'd like to share my thoughts on SOMPO purpose-driven management as a Group CEO and seek your understanding on this concept. This slide illustrates how the pursuit of purpose will lead to sustainable growth for SOMPO. At SOMPO, we believe that the pursuit of the theme park vision is the very essence of our purpose. In other words, pursuing the theme park for security, health, and well-being will guide us to solve social issues and ultimately contribute to a sustainable society. In addition to conducting businesses that contribute to security, health, and well-being, such as insurance and nursing care, we will build our proprietary Real Data Platform, or RDP, from these businesses. By evolving the RDP into a monetizable business model, we will increase corporate value. I think this is the way for us to meet the expectations of the investors.
Through these initiatives, we would like to enhance the corporate value and accelerate the cycle of reinvesting the value generated from the theme park vision. You may find something similar to this diagram presented from the other companies, except for the RDP component. SOMPO is unique in that we have a nursing care business. We are very exceptional in that sense, even in a global context. We have real data generated from the nursing care and insurance business, and the second-to-none ability to analyze the data sets. We'll capitalize on this strength to realize our purpose and achieve sustainable growth. As you can see in the center of this diagram, it is the group's employees who have their own personal purposes that underpin the realization of these goals. Each employee is required to clarify personal purposes while enhancing engagement.
From the Nominating Committee and the Remuneration Committee, I have been mandated with a few missions, and this is one of my important missions. I will explain how we are working on it later. Please turn to the next page. This slide shows the overall picture of the midterm management plan and summarizes the progress made in the first half on the three strategies and the underlying business foundations. I will give the details later, but in general, we have made steady progress. As I explained in May, we have been sharing among the management team the intent of showing results of each initiative set forth in the plan to the investors quantitatively with evidence, and I believe that led to a good progress. Please turn to the next page. As announced on the 19th, we achieved record- high profit for the first half of the year.
We have also revised up our full-year earnings guidance. We are off to a very good start toward reaching our midterm management plan target of JPY 300 billion in adjusted profit. It's only been six months since the start of the midterm management plan. We will continue to show our progress objectively based on these group management targets. From the next page, I will go through our group strategy. Please turn to page seven. Scale and diversification is one of the three core strategies under the midterm management plan. I will explain the details of each business later, but the top- line growth has been outpacing the plan. This is due to pricing measures and new product launches in the domestic P&C business, and rate increases in the overseas insurance business, which stands out with its very good growth.
In the domestic life insurance business, we expect top- line growth triggered by the launch of a new cancer product. We expect the growth to be higher than the expectation. The combined ratio, an indicator of profitability, is still far from the level targeted in the midterm management plan. This is mainly for the insurance business. The combined ratio from the insurance business is still far from the level targeted under the midterm management plan. We will thoroughly execute the profit structure reform in the domestic P&C business and profitability improvement measures in the overseas insurance business. Please turn to the next page. We are expanding the scale of our insurance business, both in Japan and overseas, backed by the progress of various initiatives including rate hikes. We have been achieving a high annual growth rate of just under 7%.
In this first half, a high year-on-year growth rate of just under 10% was achieved. In particular, the growth overseas has been remarkable, and the business has more than tripled compared to the period before the acquisition of our former Endurance, now known as Sompo International. Furthermore, the ratio of the overseas insurance business is increasing against our total business portfolio. Despite the general perception of the insurance industry being a matured industry with no prospects for future growth, SOMPO has actually achieved such strong growth. We would like to lead this to steady growth of bottom line. This will be an important measure for us to achieve our vision under RDP. The overseas business ratio and risk diversification ratio, which are the numerical targets for diversification, are showing a strong start.
We expect the overseas insurance business to contribute more to adjusted profit in the current fiscal year than the last. The overseas business ratio is steadily progressing toward the FY 2023 target of 30% or more. At the results meeting in May, we explained the five focus areas in the roadmap for RDP, which will be the pillar for creating new customer value. Our goal in terms of business size is to exceed JPY 500 billion in the medium to long term. With this roadmap, the nursing care RDP is expected to spearhead the overall initiatives. As of today, I will shed the spotlight on the nursing care RDP and explain the current status. This slide illustrates the RDP business model for the nursing care business. Japan is facing the modern social issues of declining birth rate, aging population, and shrinking working population.
Against such a backdrop, SOMPO is taking on the challenge of creating new value to solve social issues using the nursing care business as a POC verification opportunity. That you will have a better picture of our initiative, we made a video showing the significance of working on nursing care RDP with Palantir, our RDP partner, and the details of our efforts at nursing care facilities. After the video, I will provide more details on the next page. Please take a look at the video.
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That was how we are using the Real Data Platform in our nursing care business, and I hope you now have a better image on what we are trying to achieve. Let me also share the development status. Product development is underway for this product in three steps. Data visualization. Systematization of expertise. Getting the know-how and the expertise from able, experienced caregivers. Using those data, we would like to make nursing care predictable . I said these are the important steps that we are taking under development. We have already deployed the product to 25 facilities within our group, and the development is aligned with the needs and workflow on site, achieved through approximately 1,000 hours of internal dialogue with Palantir, our partner, and with ABEJA's talented engineers. ABEJA is a [budget company] when it comes to IT.
At this point, we have already developed eight modules, and half of them are planned to be commercialized after verification and validation. We are also working to create solutions that are truly necessary for nursing care providers by having external nursing care facilities actually use the system and give us feedback from the user's perspective. There are about 60,000 nursing care homes, and we hope that we can offer a necessary service to those facilities. We have been able to shape the nursing care RDP to a certain extent through a process of trial and error and agile development. We have confirmed that there are still a number of issues to be addressed before we can commercialize the nursing care RDP. Setting the price is one of them.
We believe that the 20% productivity gain can save labor costs by JPY 10 million-JPY 20 million per facility for an average fee-based nursing home. Predictable care function will be offered as an additional value proposition, and we plan to set an appropriate price in commensurate with the benefits that can be delivered. As the initial step, the target launch of the nursing care RDP is set for FY 2022. By combining solutions with real services for nursing care facilities, we aim to create a business worth several tens of billions of yen. As the next step, we will form an ecosystem with nursing care peripheral businesses and provide solutions or receipts with the aim of achieving a medium- to longer-term target of JPY 100 billion.
In addition to the nursing care RDP, we will continue to provide objective evidence of our progress in other areas as well and contribute to the resolution of social issues as the one and only Real Data Platform, while aiming to achieve our medium- to long-term target of being a globally well-known company in this space. We are aiming for JPY 500 billion in terms of size. Nursing care business is a challenge for the government, and there has been many policies and initiatives considered. Enhancing service efficiency and the level of solutions is necessary for an improvement in the nursing care business, and also to offer this abroad. We believe SOMPO can spearhead this kind of initiative to be the role model in this market. We decided on the capital allocation of JPY 600 billion as growth investment in the current midterm management plan.
The capital will be spent to increase the certainty of achieving management targets and to further promote RDP, and we expect to use it actively. We will definitely focus on discipline while investing with a firm eye on long-term future growth. The bottom left shows our investment performance to date. We have only made two relatively small overseas deals so far, and we will continue to seek opportunities for overseas M&A to ensure that we achieve our adjusted profit target of JPY 300 billion under the midterm management plan. We have a list of many opportunities that we are screening with discipline, including ones in the magnitude of a few hundred billions of yen. In the digital domain, we have been investing to create new businesses. Our CDO, Mr. Narasaki, is well-versed in the digital business, obviously, and is deeply embedded in the human network of the industry.
We are making progress in collaborating with our investees by leveraging our discernment in various digital fields, including that of our CDO.
Digital investment is intended to use the tech company's technology for our business. As you can see on bottom right, the financial value of our investments is also expanding as the investors' businesses grow. As a tech-oriented company, that is the goal that we are aiming. In the recent global executive committee, we had a thorough discussion on this topic. Please turn to the next slide. On the left side of the page, the direction of risk by area during the midterm management plan is shown. Results for the first half of the fiscal year were in line with the sense of direction. At present, we are communicating more actively than before between holdings and group companies to establish the optimal way of risk-taking for the group as a whole.
In the middle of the slide, you could see that we are making steady progress in reducing domestic interest rate risk and strategic shareholdings, which we disclose numerical targets on. We will continue to improve the capital efficiency of the entire group and aim to achieve our target of 10% or more adjusted consolidated ROE. Please turn to the next page. As indicated in May, SOMPO's shareholder return policy is to return 50% of adjusted consolidated profit as basic return and to provide supplemental returns flexibly depending on circumstances. This is the first time that SOMPO has decided to buy back JPY 20 billion of its own shares as a supplemental return for the interim period. As shown in the center of the diagram, this amount will be added to the basic return to be determined in May next year based on the current fiscal year's financial results.
The reason for the supplemental return is that, as indicated in the lower left frame, due to the partial sale of Palantir shares, the company's immediate capital surplus is expected to stably exceed the level at the time the plan was formulated. We will continue to provide attractive returns to our shareholders, taking into account the business environment and capital situation while emphasizing capital efficiency. Please turn to the next page. Regarding the new way we work, which is one of the three basic strategies of the midterm management plan, we would like each and every employee in the group to overlap their My Purpose with SOMPO's purpose. This should lead to the realization of the overall purpose through engagement and overwhelmingly higher productivity.
One of the key initiatives to enable the group's employees' My Purpose and SOMPO's purpose is to hold town hall meetings with employees. Since the start of the meetings in September, we had seven of them, and I personally was a part of it, communicating with a total of about 10,000 people viewing the communication I have had with the group employees. I felt firsthand that these efforts would build up to improve employee engagement. This is something we learned from COVID-19, which was a new way of communication and a new management tool. I was able to feel this firsthand, and I also felt this was the new normal. Going forward, I would like to continue on to use this tool in a proactive way.
In addition to this increased engagement, further growth for SOMPO requires innovation in which diversity and inclusion is inevitable, or inclusive diversity is inevitable. By accelerating D&I, we will accelerate our efforts to achieve innovation and growth. As a real data platformer, we would like to ensure we are able to realize this vision. Please turn to the next page. Regarding SDGs and business management, we have established materiality KPIs that are linked to our strategy for realizing the purpose, and we are working on them. I am sure that our investors are already well aware of the contents, but we have fundamentally revised the annual report this year, positioning it as an important information disclosure tool for communication to investors and other stakeholders. We hope you take a look.
We believe that the annual report is an important information disclosure tool to deepen understanding of SOMPO unrealized financial value. The value to resolve social challenges will eventually turn into cash through monetization in the future. That is what we believe in, and we would like to ensure that we are able to have people understand this in a deeper way. We will continue to brush up the contents of the annual report to make it more appealing to our investors. Please turn to the next page. With regard to the change of the overseas insurance business from John Charman to James Shea, the transition was carried out with speed and without confusion based on the succession plan as of September the 1st. In addition, we launched the Value Communication Team in August, called VCT. This goes back to improving our unrealized financial values.
We will collaborate within the group to improve unrealized financial value through purpose-based management and the promotion of sustainability. We will engage to resolve social issues. We would like to communicate, which is our mission to engage with our stakeholders. The VCT will partner with divisions internally in order to effectively communicate. With that, they will work to enhance our brand value and corporate value with our multi-stakeholders. That's it for the group strategy. I'll now explain strategies by business. For your reference, page 20 shows the progress of KPIs by business. Please turn now to page 21, where we talk about the domestic P&C insurance business. The results of earning structure reform have been steadily reflected in the progress of business performance, with particularly good progress in the measures against high losses. The results have already exceeded the initial plan.
So far, the impact from natural disaster losses have been trending within our assumptions. For the top line, we continue to make progress in our efforts to optimize premium rates. In addition, sales of packaged products for small and medium-sized companies, which cover various risks surrounding them, have expanded, contributing to steady growth. Regarding earning structure reform, we are working on improving underwriting by utilizing Palantir, our partner's technology. The effects of these efforts are steadily materializing. We will continue to have good expectations going forward. From the next page onwards, the progress. Please turn to page 24 next. In contrast to the domestic business and the overseas insurance business, it has been a year of major natural disasters ever since 2017, including major hurricane landfalls and flooding in Europe.
Even in such an environment, we expect to achieve the initial plan for our mainstay SI Commercial P&C business. Although the pace is slowing down, the insurance market continues to harden against the backdrop of frequent natural disasters and the ultra-low interest rate environment. In SI Commercial, the hard market is proving as a tailwind. Top line is growing strongly. In addition, by diversifying the policy portfolio and improving profitability, SI Commercial continues to generate profit growth as a growth engine for the group. The following pages describe SI Commercial's top line and profitability, including a comparison with peers. I hope you could refer to the momentum that the business has. Please now turn to page 27, where we talk about the domestic life insurance business. Adjusted profit in the domestic life insurance business is making steady progress here as well.
In addition, efforts to reduce interest rate risk, which I mentioned earlier in the capital policy section, are also progressing well. Annualized new premiums appear to be lagging slightly against plan, as the plan had anticipated the start of sales of the new insurtech-type cancer insurance product in the second half. However, on the other hand, compared to the level pre-COVID-19, NP is trending favorably, and even when compared to Q1 disclosures from peers, we have exceeded their results significantly. In October, we made a good start by launching a new insurtech- type cancer insurance product as planned. We are promoting initiatives to make it a catalyst for the second half of the year. On the next page, we explain the progress of key indicators. Now please turn to page 29, where we talk about the nursing care and seniors business.
Due to the state of emergency declaration, there was a slight delay in the progress against numerical targets in the first half. On the other hand, the environment is improving at present, and we will accelerate our efforts in the second half of the fiscal year on the premise of the safety of our users and employees. One of our KPIs, occupancy rates, are expected to exceed the beginning- of- year forecast of 90.8% by a wide margin due to greater sales activities. For initiatives in the nursing care and seniors business, apart from nursing care RDP, please refer to the next page for your reference. Now please turn to page 31. For digital. In the digital business, we established SOMPO Light Vortex as a core company.
We have started to work on the commercialization of digital solutions such as product development, sales, et cetera, by collaborating with startups with cutting-edge technologies. Also, as a group, we were selected as one of the DX companies to watch in 2021 jointly by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and the Tokyo Stock Exchange. We will continue to engage in dialogues with digital technology partners and actively promote the group's digital transformation. Like I mentioned earlier, we will strive to become a tech-oriented company by generating a track record.
Finally, please turn to page 33. Here is the link to the nursing care RDP video, which we showed earlier. The video is posted on Palantir's website. I hope you can take a look. The next page and following pages are reference materials, including various data and excerpts from the first- half financial results disclosed on the 19th.
This concludes my presentation. Now, I'd like to take any questions you may have. We will continue to do our utmost to achieve the management targets of the midterm management plan. We will report our progress to investors in an objective and evidence-based manner. Thank you very much for your attention. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Mr. Sakurada. This will conclude the presentation from our side. Now we'd like to move on to the Q&A session. The first question is from Mr. Watanabe from Daiwa Securities.
This is Watanabe from Daiwa Securities. I have two questions. The first one is on page 15 regarding your supplementary return. Your ESR is within the target range. Why did you decide to do an additional return? With the proceeds of Palantir's sales, did the ESR go up? Is that the reason, or is the additional return due to an increase in cash balance? My next question is on page 18 regarding the succession plan. Also, for the overseas insurance business, you had a change in the CEO. I think the market appreciates the strong leadership of Mr. Sakurada, but do you have any comments of your own succession plan? Do you have any candidate to succeed your position?
This is Hamada, the CFO. Watanabe, thank you very much for your question. Let me respond to your first question. We decided to do an additional return of JPY 20 billion. This is partially due to the partial sale of the Palantir stocks, but we looked at the total capital base to decide on this return. The key point was that there was some capital surplus, we had looked at the capital surplus position versus our JPY 600 billion investment plan. Rather than the cash balance, we have looked at their capital base. With Palantir's stock sales, we gained proceeds of over JPY 50 billion in cash. This was partially used to the SOMPO Light Vortex company; the cash is reinvested for our next growth.
With the capital surplus, we felt that if there is room for us to return the capital to the shareholders, we will do so, that was the basis of the current decision. Let me respond to your second question. As you know, we have a committee-based governance structure, including the succession plan, the nomination of a CEO, the resignation of the CEO will be decided by the Nomination Committee. They have the full authority for that. Just to give you some facts, myself included, all of the leadership here today, all the business owners, both overseas, domestic P&C, domestic life business, and nursing care business. Regarding the candidates for the respective business owners, we have a list which has been submitted, discussion is taking place.
When, who, at what timing, I don't have the authority to share that information, we don't have the Chairman of the Nominating Committee, so we will not be able to offer you the answer. We will appoint the right person at the right time. That is all I can say. To that date, I will try to fulfill my role. Thank you.
The follow-up on the first question. In that sense, even if the ESR is within the target range, there is a possibility for you to conduct a supplementary return. Is that right?
Yes, that is the right understanding.
Thank you very much.
Thank you very much for your question, Mr. Watanabe. Next, from SMBC Nikko Securities, we would like Mr. Muraki to ask a question.
This is Muraki from SMBC Nikko Securities. Thank you for taking my question. My first question is about page 13. You mentioned Palantir as well as other investments in other digital areas, and you talked about capital. My question is about how much capital you are considering on deploying. On page 14 for non-insurance businesses, you said that capital allocation is going to happen at a certain degree. One year ago, for Palantir, from a risk management point of view, you started discussions on what you are going to do, and one year after, you sold about 20%. Going forward, on an ongoing basis, are you going to continue to reduce risk? That's one question.
For other investments, I think you do have quite a lot of unrealized gains. By recycling it, are you going to move it towards new investments and new partnerships? Can you share with us your thinking around this? That's my first question. My second question, if I may go on. My second question is about the international business. For page seven and the top line, it seems the top line has exceeded your expectations quite substantially, but so has the loss rate as well. It has been exceeding plan. Since you formulated the midterm plan, not many years have passed yet. For upward revisions, for whether it be top line for revisions of the combined ratio to lift it higher, do you think there will be a need to do so? That's my question.
Well, this is Hamada. I will take your first question then.
First of all, for page 13 and the JPY 600 billion growth investment that you pointed out, by a certain degree, we will be investing into the insurance business as well as into the digital areas as well. For Palantir shares and the way we are going to treat it going forward, as one single stock name, the weight in our portfolio is still quite heavy , so there is stock fluctuation risk. Therefore, over the medium term, Palantir shares need to be reduced. That is our view. However, at this point in time, to be honest, we don't have a plan to divest shares even more. We do share this with Palantir, but in order to build RDP, the unrealized gains, if possible, can be deployed. That's one of the options, so that we could use it for other digital investments.
We will look at which areas we can invest in as we decide to make further reductions of Palantir shares. As shown on page 13, financially, we have been successful in other non-Palantir investments as well. We have established SOMPO Light Vortex for this reason actually, meaning that for digital investments, we would like to collaborate with new technologies. That is the aim of doing this. Because we are able to benefit financially, we would like to circulate that so that we could deploy it for the next digital investment. That is why we set up SOMPO Light Vortex. Do you have anything to add, Mr. Narasaki?
I would like to make some follow-on comments to what Mr. Hamada said. Looking at the right-hand side of page 13 and at the bottom, there are some numbers available here.
Ex Palantir: we have been making total investments worth approximately JPY 30 billion in the past, and the current equity value is approximately JPY 60 billion, and it has been calculated in a conservative way. We do invest into startups as well as venture capitals as well. The aim of our investments is a strategic return that will contribute to RDP. For investees or venture capital, I should withhold giving you the exact numbers, but the return comes to double what we have initially invested. Also, for the startup investments, some of the investees have already went to market and IPO'd. Wejo, that is on the screen, has went to market and is now publicly traded. There are other investees where an IPO exit is already visible. In a conservative way, the startup part can also double our investments.
To your point, as you rightly said, we would like to recycle our investments so that we could reinvest into other areas. We would like to recognize the gains while we invest in other areas so that we could pursue further strategic returns. At one time, we are trying to achieve three things. That's all from me. Thank you.
Mr. Muraki, for the overseas business, I would like to respond to your question. This is Okumura speaking. For top line, the rate- increase environment is favorable, and we are trying to leverage that, and we have been able to see so far a top line that exceeds our plan. For the combined ratio, it is relatively high compared to our plan, as you said. One reason is because of cat losses. Compared to our expectations, it is exceeding by JPY 10 billion.
That is what we're assuming. For the fourth quarter, we haven't been seeing that much yet, so it might go below our expectations in the end, but the loss ratio has been going up due to this reason. Our plans going forward, there are some positive factors, and there are some factors that we need to watch out for. For the positive factor, as Mr. Sakurada mentioned earlier, the rate- increase environment: we were a little bit pessimistic about it, but it's becoming tighter again lately . It is exceeding the level of loss cost. One thing we need to be cautious about, there are two. One is cat trends natural disaster studies, especially hurricanes. We need to have a close watch on them.
We're not just going to estimate numbers in a conservative manner, but we also need to revise our portfolio, whether it be geography or line of business, or attachment points, and increasing the attachment point. We are taking various types of countermeasures. The other is inflation, as well as social inflation, and past- year underwritings, and the loss developments from past years. We need to strengthen our reserves. That may be the case, or we may have to close it early by strengthening claims handling. Inflation and social inflation might turn out to be negative factors, but we believe the rate increases that are happening now, as well as the margin improvements, will be able to offset the negative factors. This year in May, we did explain some numbers, and we do believe there is a high probability of achieving them next year as well.
Thank you very much. Just wanted to confirm some numbers. It might be centered around Palantir, but according to your calculation, ESR should go up if unrealized gains are realized. It's hypothetical, but how much should ESR go up if all the unrealized gains were recognized? Is it going to be 10 points, or is it going to be otherwise? You also talked about past underwritings and the developments if there were to be cost inflation. When do you do reserve studies at SI, and when are those results reflected in your P&L?
For ESR, first of all, Palantir alone, if the full amount were to be divested, ESR should go up by 15%. If you were to include other elements, it would be within 20 points.
Okay. Thank you.
For SI reserves, we do it by quarter.
Actuaries, the claims people, as well as our management, our underwriting people, check the data, and we come up with our best estimate. If that's the case, for the revised plan and risks associated with it, I guess it's not that significant for this year. The numbers that we have set forth at the interim period should not be that different from the final results. Q4 hasn't yet closed, so we would like to closely monitor the trends.
Thank you very much.
Thank you for the question, Mr. Muraki. Next is from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley. Ms. Tsujino, please.
You mentioned about JPY 600 billion for investment for growth. You mentioned some surplus on ESR. I think at this time it was 255%, and your target range is from 200%-270%. Whatever exceeds 200%, is that the surplus? You have JPY 770 billion at present. Vis-à-vis that, you have a buffer, and you can still secure JPY 600 billion. Is that your thought process? Could I confirm that? If that is the case, I think the biggest sensitivity is on the interest rate, because even if the equity price drops, it does not have a material impact. I guess that means that you do have substantial room as a surplus.
Based on that, how much share buyback can you expect for the year? It seems like it's kind of your intuitive feeling to decide on that, but can you elaborate on how you make that decision? Overseas, the top line is growing substantially. I guess it's partially due to the rate hike. Except for the net cat loss, the combined ratio has not come down significantly. I guess you are taking new risks, so the risk amount is increasing. But with this kind of a risk increase on a consolidated basis, even with the rapid growth, this risk increase will be offset by diversification. Is there going to be a need to allocate further capital to Sompo International going forward?
Yes. This is Hamada speaking. I will answer your first question. The rough calculation that you pointed out is correct.
We have just the capital of JPY 3.5 trillion, and the risk is about JPY 4 trillion. If we say 200% is the minimum, then JPY 700 billion will be the capital surplus based on ESR. I think we explained this when we changed the target range. We are monitoring our ESR so that we can avoid the rating agency to downgrade us. At this point, in our view, the capital surplus may be relatively small. The thinking behind the additional return this time is that originally, we had allocated JPY 600 billion for growth investment. To maintain this, every year, we will have to look at the profit growth, and the capital increase, and how the risk amount is increasing. We do this simulation every year.
For this fiscal year, the original simulation versus the original simulation in the first 6 months of the year, we had the sales of the Voluntare stocks. We had seen an increase in the unrealized gain substantially. Roughly speaking, we had an additional JPY 50 billion in the capital base versus our original plan. We could have returned all of that, but the market price portion will be impacted if the equity market comes down. Based on that, we decided to do an additional return of JPY 20 billion.
This is Okumura speaking on the overseas business. The top line is growing for sure, and the loss ratio is relatively high, and this is because of the cat loss. The portfolio is shifting from global cat to global casualty. That is why the loss ratio is slightly higher than expected.
Regarding the sufficiency of the capital base, we made the midterm management plan and our own business plan for the next three to five years. We are using the internal rating calculation for ESR or the ECR based on the Bermuda calculation. We will be exceeding 150% by a fair margin. In terms of organic growth, based on the current business, we thought that we do not need to ask for additional capital. If we are going to do a bottom M&A, or if we are going to accelerate the risk-taking, then between the holdings and the other businesses, we may discuss every potential capital infusion.
On a consolidated basis then, even if the overseas business grows this much, the risk increase will be offset by diversification. Is that right?
Also, it means that you had significant exposure to natural catastrophe overseas, but you are trying to shift the portfolio. How much are you going to reduce the cat exposure?
First, on the overseas insurance business, in the real terms, yes, it is increasing. In terms of percentage points, looking at our business portfolio, the cat risk weight is decreasing. For example, with the reinsurance global cat in 2017, when we acquired the business, the exposure was about 14%-15% within the total portfolio. Now in 2025, that exposure is close to 5%. With the Hurricane Ida, when a similar net cat was hit, and comparing our net loss and the industry's loss, our net loss this time is much lower compared to the past. This is due to the revised underwriting policy and also our reserving policy.
Also, on a quarterly basis, we monitor if the portfolio structure is what we intended it to be. We do not have a clear target or threshold, but looking at the annual earnings, we want to make sure that the cat loss will be within the annual earnings for our portfolio. Did that suffice your question, Ms. Tsujino?
The overseas risk is increasing, but on a consolidated basis, the risk amount for a consolidated basis will be offset by diversification. Is that right?
Y es, that is right.
Okay, thank you very much.
Thank you, Ms. Tsujino. Next person is Mr. Otsuka from JP Morgan Securities.
This is Otsuka from J P Morgan Securities. Thank you for taking my question. If it's possible, I would like you to take one question at a time.
Yes, that's fine. Please go ahead.
My first question is about page five. I'm looking at page five right now. For the risk diversification ratio, which you have started to quantify from this midterm management plan. My question is about page five. As you set forth here, the improvement rate as well as the level is what I would like to ask about. Looking at what you're doing from the outside, you are saying you're making steady progress. In the next six months, are you going to be able to see 1 percentage point of progress each, and would that mean that you're making steady progress?
My question is about speed of improvement. You are already making improvements against fiscal year 2020 actuals, which is your goal for the final year. How high do you think you can go if there were high net losses overseas or in Japan? From the outside, how can we feel assured that you are making up for it through other businesses? Can you give us some flavor on that? That's my first question.
Thank you, Mr. Otsuka, for your question. For the risk diversification ratio, we're talking about scale and diversification, which is one of our core strategies. As we set this as one of our core strategies, we thought about how we can show how we have diversified. That is why we introduced this ratio. Regarding the ultimate level we are going to go after, we actually haven't yet come up with an answer.
We would like to constantly be able to have a strong diversification in the business so that we can be a well-diversified group. That's how far we have come so far. Of course, in 2023, according to our simulations, we are able to see where we are going to reach, but we are not sure yet if that's going to be the ultimate goal we want to reach. This may not answer your question, but we just want to say at least that we want to see the results be better compared to the previous year, and we are not able to quantify the final goal yet.
For example, diversification of business through large M&As or through RDP and value creation, and more contributions from that, theoretically speaking, you should be able to see a higher risk diversification ratio, right?
Yes, that is correct.
Thank you very much for that confirmation. My second question is about page 10. I'm looking at page 10. Six months ago, at this kind of briefing, I think you discussed this as well. You have five focus areas of RDP right now, and with respect to the speed of business and the response you're feeling from your engagement is what I would like you to share with me. For the nursing care area, I did get the impression that you are making good progress. For the other focus areas, such as disaster prevention and mitigation as well as mobility, how much response or progress are you making? For the speed you are seeing in each of the businesses, do you think the rate of how you're progressing is fine, or do you think you need to accelerate your efforts?
Thank you very much for your question.
This is Narasaki speaking. I will take the second question you asked. We did explain a lot about nursing care RDP, and you might be wondering if we're doing well on the other focus areas. The feeling we have is that I actually joined the company five years ago from the outside, when it comes to Sompo Japan Insurance or the P&C business and mobility and resilience RDP, the business processes of Sompo Japan is extremely large in scale, and I'm really feeling that firsthand. What I mean by that is RDP is a product. Before we develop it to sell it externally, we have Foundry for internal digital transformation and for better productivity. We are utilizing Foundry quite a lot, and what we would like to do through this is we would like to ensure that we have been seeing contributions to the bottom line already.
We are working on that, and as we work on the developments to create it as a solution product in the area of mobility and resilience. We are putting together a lot of creative triggers together with Sompo Japan. We were trying to generate effects internally so that to outside customers and to outside markets, we have started to gain visibility that the product has far more impact on the external markets and customers. Whether it be Sompo Japan or Sompo International, in the area of agriculture, we have a product called AgriSompo, and a new solution product that we can add on is being developed right now.
For the details, we haven't been able to give you specific examples at today's IR meeting. After the nursing care RDP, we believe RDP products that are comparable to nursing care RDP or even better than nursing care RDP products are currently in the works. We would like to ensure that we thoroughly use the products internally first to generate good results, and then turn it into a solution product. It is taking a little bit longer time than the nursing care area, that's how gravity it has. That's all from me. Thank you.
If that's the case, it seems that the feeling you're getting is that, compared to six months ago, you were talking about monetization by selling it externally, and you were talking about the four phases that you would like to go through. The final stages are Level 3 and Level 4. I guess you are now prepared to leapfrog to Level 3 or Level 4.
Yes. You could view it that way, because we are already at the end of the third quarter. Now we are at a stage where the product can be shared as a product, presumably next fiscal year than this fiscal year. That's the rate at which we are working right now.
Okay. Briefly, one more add-on question. In the area of mobility or disaster prevention and mitigation, when you look at other companies, whether it be domestic or overseas, when it comes to data analysis, I am sure that each and every company does that. Are you seeing intensification of competition, or do you continue to have an upper hand? If you can briefly take that question too. Thank you.
Well, some parts of it is confidential. I'm not able to give you the details of this. Personally, I can say that we are one or two steps ahead of other competitors.
Understood. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Mr. Otsuka. Next, Mr. Sato from [SMBC Nikko Securities], please.
This is Sato from [SMBC Nikko Securities]. Can you hear me? Yes. I have two questions. The first question is, for the final year of the MTMP, you are aiming for JPY 300 billion for adjusted profit. After six months, I think the progress may imply that there could be some upside. Do you agree with that? As I'm not asking if this is going to be far higher than JPY 300 billion, but I'd like to look at the situation closely to see in which part of the business you may be outpacing your plan. For example, on page 22, you talk about the profitability structural reform, and you have partially revised the guidance for this fiscal year. Therefore, if this is not front-loading the future impact, I think you can continue to enjoy a positive upside.
Also overseas, the rate- hike environment is better than your original pessimistic view. I think you've been able to increase the top line for this fiscal year. Given that, is that going to have some upside impact on your final target for FY 2023? My second question is on a specific topic. With the revised plan, looking at your Brazil business, it seems that the loss expectation was lowered quite significantly. I think this is backed by many factors. I think you're planning to build up the reserves. In this way, for the emerging markets and the retail business, it's now under SI Holdings. What are the new challenges that you expect, and what kind of countermeasures would you need to deploy? Are there any business units outside of Brazil that seem to be challenging, or do you have to take on some countermeasures?
Yes, this is Hamada speaking. Thank you for the question. Let me address your first question. Your understanding is broadly right. The biggest driver for our profit is the earnings structural reform and also growing the top line for overseas. In the previous six months, the progress was better than expected. I think that's a positive factor. For this fiscal year, the net cat loss was very moderate. We cannot foresee how this will trend three years from now. In the current situation, intuitively, the current accident rate, I know that today there is some impact coming from COVID-19. Going forward, with the resurgence of Go To Travel, the traffic may come back again. Ultimately, I think with the changes happening in society, the loss ratio will not come back to the previous levels.
What we can expect three years from now, I think this part will be a positive factor. That will be the changing assumption for three years out.
On your second question regarding the revised guidance for Brazil and also the impact on the retail business, this is Okumura speaking to address that question. For our business in Brazil, we had to revise down our guidance. By the end of this fiscal year, we will be cleaning up the balance sheet. The resolution and revision of the accelerated amortization depreciation will be completed. The retail companies are shifting under SIH, and that happened back in 2019. After that, the SIH function leaders, like the CFO and also the internal audit person, are directly communicating with the retail business.
After the issue happened in Brazil, obviously, the results are audited for each of the businesses; the issue that we saw in Brazil happened. We are now doing an overall review for the whole business. At this point, we do not see anything like Brazil, where we have to do the reserve for the prior- year development.
Thank you very much. That is very clear.
Thank you very much, Mr. Sato. Next person is Mr. Niwa from Citigroup.
This is Niwa from Citi. Thank you. I have a question about the RDP, the Real Data Platform, as well as overseas retail, which might be similar to the previous questions. First question is about page 12. On the left-hand side, you show a diagram. In the CEO's comment, you were saying several tens of billions of yen in fiscal 2022 as well.
My question is, how much is the unit prices going to be, and how much of number of operators are you assuming? Is it going to be 400? Is that the basis of your calculations? If you have any numbers that you have for this fiscal year, I was just wondering how we should estimate the size of the business and how we should break it down. Six months ago, at the briefing, you were saying that you would like to make a comment at an appropriate timing regarding profits. RDP for nursing care or for the overall RDP segment, can you give me more commentary on it? Next is for overseas retail, which is overlapping with Mr. Sato's question. For the overseas retail segment, can you once again walk us through the positioning of it?
You were saying that you are promoting earnings structure improvement for Brazil as well as for Turkey, where there are an unsteady outlook in the geopolitical situation, should we look at this business through the view of applying insurtech and so forth going forward? Please share with us your expectations.
Thank you, Mr. Niwa, for your questions. First of all, on page 12, Mr. Sakurada was referring to we are going to launch nursing care RDP in fiscal 2022. Ultimately, we would like to reach several tens of billions of yen, not necessarily for fiscal 2022. I think reaching several tens of billions of yen in fiscal 2022 is something we cannot commit to. Regarding our assumptions for page 12, we did have internal discussions on our side too, of course, we did not want to put in numbers that were inappropriate.
As Mr. Sakurada mentioned in his presentation, by implementing this per facility, how much cost can be reduced was what we tried to work out, and how much pay are we able to receive in return. We looked at that, and also for the number of operators. We do know the total number of operators nationwide. For digital devices or ICT, we thought about the operators who can actually go through the digital transformation. That is why our initial target is 400 or so companies. Our calculations are based off this. When you do the calculation, it doesn't reach JPY 100 billion yet, but as we show under others. In the non-RDP peripheral areas, we are expecting to generate some income as well as developing the business overseas and so forth.
If I may follow up on that. This is Mr. Tsuji.
Thank you very much for your question, Mr. Niwa. As was just explained, I would like to talk about the current status of the business. For nursing care RDP, we have a CDMO team who is engaged in marketing. As Mr. Sakurada mentioned in his presentation, currently, there are eight operators to which we have been proposing plans. We are having discussions with them. The teams are starting from there individually. As a next step, we would like to transform to pool-type marketing. For example, having booths at exhibitions or doing digital marketing. These are the things we are currently planning for. That's the stage we're in right now. For the monetization schedule, it is exactly as Mr. Hamada explained. Thank you.
My second question was about overseas retail.
This is Okumura. I would like to take your question.
As you know, in the past, we used to support Japanese corporations in going abroad. That was one of the reasons why we were going overseas. Whether it be developed or emerging markets, or commercial and retail. Now their missions are to generate profits as well as to diversify risks and contribute to our performance. Turkey is the most advanced in their skills and culture. We are trying to develop that out to the other retail markets. As you pointed out, there is geopolitical risk, and there is something like currency rate depreciation, like what happened two days ago. Single- company efforts are not able to control that kind of risk. Thinking about what we can do, one is scale expansion as well as diversification when looking at the overall retail business.
In doing so, what we are engaging in right now is new channels and new markets. We are trying to advance into them together with insurtech companies. Developing new channels as well as new markets is what we're working on. Whatever the case may be, when it comes to currency rate depreciation, which is a huge headwind, and when you're doing business on a U.S.-denominated or yen-denominated way, it is hard to figure out the growth prospects. Overall, we would like to think about risk diversification from the retail business as well.
Thank you.
Thank you, Mr. Niwa. Next, Ms. Tatsuo Majima from Tokai Tokyo Research Center, please.
My first question is regarding purpose-driven management. Employees' engagement is something that you'd like to enhance, and I think visualization of that is a key challenge for you. What kind of measures are you taking to visualize employees' engagement? Also, Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance has a Motivation Cloud, a linked Motivation Cloud. What measures are you taking? My second question is regarding digital. Another pillar for digital will be AI. How are you going to utilize AI as part of your digital strategy?
In regard to the usage of AI, it may be slightly behind. For the insurance business, for P&C claims handling, AI is used to detect the fraud claims payment. What is your thoughts on using AI? Regarding Foundry, I think you put the priority on utilizing Foundry for the nursing care business. In the second half of the year, the nursing care business is important. With the COVID-19 situation, I think analysis on the pandemic is something significant for society. New cases have stabilized. I guess utilizing Foundry for COVID-19 analysis may not be needed. Is that the case? Those are my two questions.
Regarding the first question. The need for engagement and also the purpose-driven management within the board members, which are mostly outside directors, we had a very thorough discussion.
My mission, or three mission from the Remuneration Committee, the engagement is one of the key missions that was provided to me. Regarding the measurement of engagement, there was no particular instruction. If we use our own KPI to measure the level of engagement, it may not be significant as a data point. We're using the Gallup's data sets, and we are simply measuring engagement to share the level of engagement today. What's important is the background which led to such results. For example, within the headquarter, the engagement index may be high, on-site for digital or nursing care or the insurance business, the on-site engagement, if it is low, that is going to be an issue. That's the kind of discussion that is taking place.
We are using the Gallup's tool, and the result that will be used, I think, is going to be the key for implementing purpose-driven management for different companies. We will try not to be self-centered on that point. On your second question, I think Mr. Narasaki would like to answer your question. Taking a long time, I will try to answer that simply .
This is Narasaki speaking. I was surprised that you said for AI initiatives, we are behind, because among the three mega insurance companies in Japan, I think we are most advanced. To give you a very simple example, we are partnering with ABEJA, who is the top company in deep learning globally. We are the largest shareholder for ABEJA. We are using ABEJA's AI and deep learning internally. I think other companies will also have some partnerships.
The relationship is not as deep as ours. On your second point, regarding the data analysis, I hope not to be misleading, but AI and data analysis is not two separate things. The data analysis is not done by analysts. It's done with AI and deep learning. Palantir's Foundry is a type of AI, in a way. For this, with the spread of COVID-19, you mentioned about the analysis on the spread of COVID-19. With Sompo Japan and SOMPO Group as a whole, Foundry was introduced to Kanagawa Prefecture, this was used to analyze the COVID-19 situation in the prefecture. We also have the government, which is utilizing these AI capabilities. To the other many municipalities, this is penetrating as a service.
As the data analysis, not just on the COVID-19 situation but for other purposes, is something that we are already providing.
Yes. That's very clear. Thank you for that response. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Mr. Majima. We are drawing close to our given time, the next question will be the final question. It will be a question from Mr. Sasaki from BofA Securities. The question is through the chat box. I will read his question on his behalf.
For nursing care RDP, I felt that the path to profitability has become clearer. In order to accelerate your efforts to scale, do you have any intention of receiving external capital or bringing it to market? Will that be a part of your discussions? Especially if you're going to export it out to overseas, you will probably need an overseas partner. Can you share us your views? Thank you.
Maybe I should take that question. Thank you very much for your question, Mr. Sasaki. It is exactly as you've just pointed out. I'm not saying with who; I'm not going to say any company name, but there are many inquiries that are being presented to us. What's important here is before we scale up, we have had this discussion thoroughly at our board; we need to put priority on quality. If we focus on quality, we believe we'll be able to expand in quantity as well. For nursing care, too, we believe we have now gained visibility around what nursing care RDP is all about. We still have lots to do. Ultimately, we would like to export in the future, we would like to create a marketing and research team.
We do already have that kind of team available, and I think it's going to happen mainly in Asia, but we are working on it as we speak. There are many challenges we are facing. However, there are a lot of opportunities. Compared to when we were just doing insurance, I can say we are getting quite a lot of inquiries these days, although I am not going into detail right now. Thank you very much for that question.
Thank you very much, Mr. Sasaki. As time has come, we would like to bring the meeting to a close. If you have any additional questions, please present your questions to our IR team. Thank you very much for participating today. Thank you