Tokyu Corporation (TYO:9005)
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May 13, 2026, 3:30 PM JST
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Earnings Call: Q4 2024

May 14, 2024

Masahiro Horie
President, Tokyu Corporation

I am Masahiro Horie, President. Allow me to remain seated. Thank you for taking time out of your busy schedules to attend this financial results briefing. First, I explain the results for fiscal 2023 and our forecast for fiscal 2024. Then I will explain our financial strategy, shareholders' return, major topics, and initiatives to enhance the value of Tokyu. Please proceed to page four. Here are the main points of the fiscal 2023 results: operating revenue was JPY 1,037.8 billion, operating profit was JPY 94.9 billion, and net income, profit attributable to owners' parent, was JPY 63.7 billion, due mainly to recovery of demand in railway and hotel business and an increase in condominium sales and railway fare revisions. Operating revenue was up JPY 106.5 billion, and operating profit was up JPY 50.3 billion year- on- year.

Net income rose chiefly due to an increase in share of profit of entities accounted for using equity method. Against the February forecast, operating profit rose by JPY 4.9 billion and net income by JPY 3.7 billion, mainly due to higher commission rental income in the real estate leasing business. Performance indicators for fiscal 2023 financial results. The upper row shows EPS of JPY 105.84, ROE of 8.3%, and business profit ROA of 3.6%. The interest-bearing debt divided by Tokyu EBITDA multiple was 6.2x, achieving all the targets in the previous medium-term management plan. Please refer to page six. Here are the key points of the results by segment based on year-on-year changes. The transportation business operating profit was up JPY 23.5 billion. Tokyu Railways benefited from demand recovery and higher passenger count as well as fare revisions, and also recovery was seen in Tokyu Bus and other businesses.

The real estate business profits increased by JPY 19.8 billion. In addition to a large profit increase in the real estate sales business due to higher condo deliveries, the real estate leasing business and hotels in mixed-use properties such as the Capitol Hotel Tokyu and Cerulean Tower Tokyu Hotel performed well. The hotel and resort business profit rose by JPY 4.8 billion due to higher ADR from demand recovery and added value creation despite the cost of opening new hotels in Shinjuku and Sapporo. In the live services business, both the retail and ICT media businesses increased their profits for a total increase of JPY 2 billion. Please refer to page seven. We show the comparison with the February forecast: better-than-expected results mainly in the real estate and live service businesses led to JPY 4.9 billion growth in operating profit. Next page.

This shows changes in operating revenue and operating profit since fiscal 2019. Owing partly to the structural reforms and added value creation undertaken since COVID, operating profit in fiscal 2023 was a record high. The next page shows segment information. Please read later. Page 10. I will explain our full year forecast for fiscal 2024. First, the assumptions. Continued favorable business environment is expected, including a recovery in demand for transportation and an increase in inbound demand. As for labor costs, we will improve employee compensation and raise wages including base salary and increase hiring to deal with demand recovery and to prepare for the future growth scenario. We also need to take into account soaring construction costs and rising interest rates. Assumptions and major KPIs for each business are described in the middle under forecast for each business.

In the real estate business, we expect lower condominium sales from the higher base in fiscal 2023, but we assume moderate increases in number of passengers carried at Tokyu Railways, sales at retail stores, and hotel occupancy and ADR. Based on the upward revision of the financial results for fiscal 2023, we have revised our forecast for fiscal 2024 upward from the first-year numbers in the three-year medium-term management plan announced in March. Please refer to next page. Main points about our forecast. We forecast operating revenue of JPY 1,055 billion, operating profit of JPY 88 billion, and net income of JPY 60 billion.

Year-over-year, despite an expected recovery in the number of users in the hotel and resort and live service businesses, condo deliveries will decrease and labor costs will rise, so we expect operating revenue to increase by JPY 17.1 billion and operating profit to fall by JPY 6.9 billion. Against the medium-term plan, operating revenue will increase by JPY 5 billion and operating profit by JPY 4 billion. The plan for fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026 remains unchanged at this time, but we are considering aggressively revising the plan in the future. We will update the figures for each fiscal year as appropriate, and we are starting to consider presenting figures for the next three years. Next page. Performance indicators. We forecast EPS to be JPY 100.14, ROE to be 7.4%, and business profit ROA to be 3.3%. Please refer to page 15.

The investment plan and cash flow will be promoted in accordance with the three-year medium-term management plan. Capital investment planned for fiscal 2024 totals JPY 140 billion, of which JPY 48 billion is for the railway business, JPY 45 billion is for existing businesses, and JPY 47 billion is for growth investments. The bottom half shows our cash flow plan. We will consider share buybacks flexibly and actively, separately from the JPY 40 billion in dividends to shareholders. Buying back shares is one form of investment, so we will be looking at the stock price. 16. Next, I will explain shareholder returns. We plan to pay an annual dividend of JPY 22 per share for fiscal 2024. This is an increase from the minimum dividend of JPY 21 per share in the medium-term plan, reflecting the upward revision of the earnings forecast. Page 17.

From here, I will explain the main topics of each business segment. Next page. About the transportation business. Upper left, the number of passengers carried on the Tokyu Shin-Yokohama Line, which opened March 2023, is around 70% of the plan. The number of non-commuter passengers is high, but it is taking time for commuter passengers to become established. We will improve convenience by revising the timetable and increasing service frequency so that commuter demand will take hold. Lower right, at Tokyu Bus, we implemented a 3.46% fare revision in March this year. To counter labor shortages, we will use the increased revenue to improve compensation and secure drivers. We will provide stable service and meet the expectations of our customers, which will lead to attracting more people to the areas served by our lines while at the same time improving our business performance. Next, page 19.

There are no major changes from the second quarter in our ongoing development plans for Shibuya on this page and for areas served by our lines on the next page. Soaring construction costs is an issue. We will closely examine the impact on profitability and make cost corrections as necessary. In Shibuya, the redevelopment efforts to date have created a virtual cycle with a concentration of office space eliciting interest from even more companies. For Shibuya AXSH, which is scheduled to open in the summer of 2024, all office tenants are finalized. Among the five central wards of Tokyo, Shibuya has the least office supply while demand remains robust, so we will continue to promote development to meet that demand. Development plans for the areas served by Tokyu line.

By promoting these projects, we aim to increase the population along the rail line and thereby improve the profitability of the businesses along the line. Next page. Talking about the real estate sales business in Japan and abroad. In Japan, we will work to acquire business opportunities mainly along our railway lines to host population growth. We also expect our overseas projects, particularly in Vietnam, to contribute to stable earnings. Lower right shows the business profit trend in real estate sales, and stable profit contributions are expected from both Japanese and overseas operations. Page 22. Hotel business initiatives. To further improve ADR, we are renovating hotels and collaborating with entertainment services. We will not simply raise ADR but rather provide services commensurate with the price to improve customer satisfaction and capture repeat guests.

Also, through our involvement in assets based on hotel operation know-how and real estate development and management capabilities, we will capture business opportunities and expand fee business. A private real estate fund was set up in April 2024 through investments from multiple domestic institutional investors for The Park Front Hotel at Universal Studios Japan. We are involved in both asset management and hotel management contracting, aiming to secure fees and expand our network as a hotel chain. Also, we opened STORYLINE SENAGAJIMA, a hotel condominium-type accommodation facility that operates condos as hotel guest rooms during periods when buyers are not using them for their own personal use in April of this year. This new offering allows us to recover funds quickly through the sale of condominiums and at the same time secure fees from hotel management contracts. Page 23.

Here, I talk about the collaboration among our businesses utilizing the Tokyu Point. Our businesses are diverse, and achieving collaboration among them creating synergy effects will be the source of the conglomerate premium. We will further expand the Tokyu Point customer base by increasing opportunities to grant points. Then, by promoting collaboration between businesses, we will increase the value of the area and expand profit earning opportunities. In April of this year, we began granting points for railway and bus services, which have the broadest customer bases of all our businesses. We will deepen the point service from the current retail-centered and limited customer base to one that connects customers in all age groups and segments. Through these efforts, we aim to attract a majority of the population in the service area to become Tokyu Point members by fiscal 2030.

We will also strengthen group marketing activities that leverage our customer base and increase point-mediated sales within the consolidated group. Page 24. Next, about inbound demand initiatives. According to data released by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government last September, Shibuya, where we are based, is one of the most popular areas visited by tourists to Japan. Shibuya Sky and observation facility in Shibuya Scramble Square has become a popular tourist spot and is visited by many foreigners every day. Foreign guests ratio for our four hotels in Shibuya with 1,200 rooms is about 75%, and duty-free sales at our commercial facilities are also growing steadily due to the increase in inbound visitors to Japan. We believe that many customers also visit our non-tax-free establishment, including restaurants.

In the railway business, we are introducing ticket gates for contactless payment by credit card to capture inbound demand, such as for sightseeing in Yokohama on the Toyoko Line and for access to the Shinkansen on the Shin-Yokohama Line. Page 25. I will now explain our ESG initiatives. In the transportation business, Tokyu Railways already operate on 100% renewable energy. In the real estate business as well, we have set targets such as requiring environmental certifications and switching to 100% renewable energy for offices, commercial facilities, condos, and rental housing. To achieve these goals, we are promoting the Tokyu Smart Green Concept. We utilize PPA and invest in solar power plants to promote the concept of self-production and self-consumption of renewable energy at group assets, including railways, buildings, and hotels.

We will continue to promote ESG initiatives in addition to solving business issues to enhance corporate value while solving social issues. Page 26. From here, I'd like to explain our initiatives to enhance the value of Tokyo. On page 27, let me explain the business model we are aiming for. I will skip the details as this has already been discussed in our three-year medium-term business plan meeting, but we are aiming for a long-term cyclical business creating synergies among businesses with transportation and real estate as core and also with life service, hotels and resorts, and new business areas. Next page. Let me summarize the positioning and characteristics of our business. We are a regional conglomerate that operates a wide variety of businesses in areas centered along the Tokyu Line.

With transportation and real estate as our core, we will combine life services and hotel and resort businesses, which require relatively low capital investment and can expect high returns to enhance services, our value, and profit expansion. Next page. Our vision for the future level of consolidated ROA. Although the scale of invested capital, risks, expected returns, and ROA differ for each business, we will aim to achieve ROA of over 4% in the medium to long term by combining our various businesses, collaborating among them, and utilizing capital gains from real estate sales. From here, based on what I have explained, I'd like to delve deeper into our business model. First, our business model is based on the TOD, a transit-oriented development.

We are proud that we have developed this TOD model in a unique way and have become the largest private sector urban development company in Japan and the world. Our own unique TOD approach to urban and community development has two characteristics. The first is that we conduct regional conglomerate management. We develop business in multiple layers at each location and provide various services that will enhance everyday life from a long-term perspective and generate revenue from that. The second is our ultra-long-term commitment to the areas. By promoting urban development primarily in Tokyu Line areas and upgrading areas from the long-term perspective, we realize a series of unique and attractive communities. Through these efforts, we will realize a conglomerate premium.

The right-hand side shows the results of our efforts to date, showing we have performed well above the benchmark in terms of number of passengers carried, demographics, and real estate value. Next, I discuss maximizing returns in the real estate business. In the real estate business, in addition to development, operations, and sales, we will also conduct fee businesses such as management and brokerage to improve total returns. First, in development, we will actively participate in good projects. By upgrading Shibuya and Tokyu Line area continually through Tokyu-style cyclical and cumulative reinvestment, we will continuously upgrade the community and improve the value and competitiveness of the entire area. We will then recover this investment through our asset business. In addition to securing a stable income from leasing, the cyclical investment will raise the rent level as the value of the area improves, enabling us to further increase returns.

Selling the asset will realize capital gains and quick return on capital and increase asset efficiency. This will allow further acceleration of cyclical reinvestment whereby, as the value of an area increases, the Cap Rate decreases, and the value of the area increases further, creating a virtual cycle. Our cyclical reinvestment is a unique and highly leveraged business model that creates a competitive advantage and improves returns by concentrating investment in an area. In addition, by combining non-asset fee-based businesses that require less capital investment, such as property management, retail, brokerage, and consulting, we can capture profit opportunities and further improve ROA. In this way, in the real estate business, we will take a comprehensive approach to maximize returns and improve ROA. Next, regarding maximizing returns through collaboration among businesses.

Our company is characterized by the provision of the wide variety of services that create added value for residents and visitors to our railways, including the life service and the hotel and resort businesses. The strengths of these services attract populations to the area and strengthen the foundations of the transportation and real estate businesses and further enable us to invest in hub areas mainly along the rail lines. The services we provide need to make life along the railways more convenient, rich, beautiful, and enjoyable, and to increase the attractiveness of the area compared to other areas where we can demonstrate our superiority. In other words, we need to secure return and yield on our business after paying market rents.

From an urban and community development perspective, the value of an area can be enhanced by combining the services directly operated by the group with services entrusted to quality businesses outside the group. In the group's directly operated business, we will receive rental income in the real estate business and also enjoy revenues generated from business operations, capturing the upside in revenues. On the other hand, in the tenant leasing model, in addition to enjoying stable rental income, tenants will provide a variety of services that the group cannot offer, thereby contributing to the enhancement of area value. We will appropriately combine both models and aim to maximize returns through interbusiness collaboration by growing the group's directly operated model centered on the life service business. Let me explain the previous page with numbers on page 33. The left-hand side shows real estate rental income.

26.3% of the total, or JPY 28.8 billion, comes from rents generated by the business operations of our consolidated subsidiaries. The right side shows the business operation side. Although it is often pointed out that the operating profit ratio of the retail business is low, the company's group earns operating profit after paying rent to the real estate business. Taking Tokyu Store as an example, when rents and other property costs are excluded, the operating profit ratio rises to 5%. We also believe that the results of business opportunities should be evaluated by ROA. Since we invest in development through our real estate business and operate business through a separate company, we are able to operate business with relatively less assets. The ROA of Tokyu Store Chain is 8.4%, which is relatively high in our group, and we believe it contributes to raising consolidated ROA. Page 34.

In light of the collaboration among businesses and regional conglomerate concepts I have explained, I believe it is necessary to examine returns from the perspective of area segments in addition to business segments in the future. We will deepen our regional conglomerate management so that we can clarify which regions are earning money and which businesses are contributing, allowing us to make appropriate investments. A concrete example of a regional conglomerate is shown using the Shibuya area. In the Shibuya area, in addition to having multiple assets, we manage large floor areas, including management consignment for properties owned by Tokyu REIT. In these properties, we roll out diverse businesses such as offices, hotels, retail, and entertainment. There are also a number of businesses that are conducted on a whole-area basis, such as security, property management, and advertising agencies.

Access to Shibuya from other areas is provided by transportation services such as railways and buses. As the attractiveness of the Shibuya area increases, transportation users will increase, and additional revenue opportunities could be captured. In addition, the company has a large customer base through its membership system, Tokyu Point system, based on these businesses. As I mentioned earlier, we began granting points to transportation users from April 1st. This will greatly expand our point customer base. In this way, we are conducting regional conglomerate management to build a revenue base, enhance area value, and increase profits by reinvesting in the hub areas where we operate.

We will continue to make concentrated investment in our core areas, such as Shibuya and the areas along our railway lines, to develop a wide variety of services and to sustainably link our customer base to active area growth and increase our corporate value as a regional conglomerate. Lastly, I'd like to explain our policies to increase corporate value. As explained in our three-year medium-term management plan, we will strive to improve capital efficiency and promote management with a strong awareness of the cost of equity capital. We will enhance corporate value by improving ROE and optimizing cost of equity capital. Higher ROE will be based on the improvement of ROA. We will consider share buybacks in a flexible and proactive manner but will not rely on an excessive increase in financial leverage and make sure we retain financial health.

We will also be conscious of securing flexible investment capacity, allowing us to invest as a contrarian. We will optimize the cost of shareholders' equity through a variety of measures, including the creation of high area value and a stable portfolio with growth potential. Please refer to the reference page at your leisure for more concrete policies and major initiatives to achieve these goals. This concludes my presentation.

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