Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. (TYO:9107)
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Sep 11, 2026, 3:30 PM JST
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Earnings Call: Q2 2025

Nov 5, 2024

Summary

Q2 FY2024 saw strong revenue and profit growth, with net income up 200% year-on-year. Full-year guidance was raised, driven by robust logistics and containership performance, while shareholder returns and investments were also increased.

Speaker 1

Financial highlights brief report for second quarter fiscal year 2024. A, financial highlights for second quarter fiscal year 2024. A.1, financial results for second quarter fiscal year 2024. In the second quarter of fiscal 2024, operating revenues increased by JPY 81.6 billion year-on-year, up JPY 5 billion from the previous forecast to JPY 538 billion. Operating income improved by JPY 16.9 billion year-on-year, up JPY 1.1 billion from the previous forecast to JPY 61.1 billion. Ordinary income improved by JPY 104.7 billion year-on-year, up JPY 20.8 billion from the previous forecast to JPY 187.3 billion. Net income attributable to owners of parent for the first half increased by JPY 122.4 billion, or 200% year-on-year to JPY 183.2 billion, representing an increase of JPY 21.2 billion from the previous forecast.

One point to note is that in the second quarter, we recorded a JPY 15.4 billion foreign exchange loss, which was due to one-time factors and did not affect cash flow. This resulted from a revaluation of foreign currency denominated cash and deposits, as well as receivables and payables. Equity capital was JPY 1,580.8 billion. Interest-bearing liability was JPY 287.8 billion. Debt-to-equity ratio was 18%, and equity ratio was 76%. A.2, financial results for second quarter fiscal year 2024 by segment. Overall, compared to the same period last year, Dry Bulk and Containership business contributed to profitability. Compared to the previous forecast, however, Car Carrier business and Containership business were the contributors. As for individual segments, as I just mentioned, a foreign exchange loss of JPY 15.4 billion was recorded in the second quarter.

This was due to the revaluation of foreign currency denominated cash and deposits, as well as receivables and payables. This loss has been allocated to each business segment based on a set of rules, which makes it difficult to see each segment's actual performance clearly. Therefore, I will provide an overview of each business segment later when discussing the full-year outlook. The foreign exchange loss, which did not impact cash flow, was due to the yen's sharp appreciation against the dollar. The dollar-yen rate went from the JPY 161 level at the end of the first quarter to the JPY 142 level at the end of the second quarter, a nearly JPY 20 change. B, forecasts and initiatives for fiscal year 2024. B.1, forecasts for fiscal year 2024 and key factors.

For the full-year forecast for fiscal 2024, operating revenues are expected to increase by JPY 72.1 billion year-on-year, up JPY 10 billion from the previous forecast to JPY 1,030 billion. Operating income is expected to improve by JPY 21.9 billion year-on-year, up JPY 4 billion from the previous forecast to JPY 106 billion. Ordinary income is expected to improve by JPY 107.3 billion year-on-year, up JPY 20 billion from the previous forecast to JPY 240 billion. Net income attributable to owners of parent for fiscal 2024 is expected to increase by JPY 133.1 billion, or 130% year-on-year to JPY 235 billion, representing an increase of JPY 25 billion from the previous forecast. The actual exchange rate for October was used as the assumed rate for the second half. However, for November onward, including the end of the fiscal year, we are basing our earnings projections on the rate of JPY 140.

The assumed average exchange rate for the full fiscal year is JPY 147.17, with the assumed bunker price at $624 per metric ton. For reference, a JPY 1 fluctuation in the exchange rate is expected to impact profits by JPY ±1.6 billion, and a $10 fluctuation in the bunker price is expected to impact profits by JPY ± 30 million. I will talk about shareholder returns later on. B.2, forecasts for FY 2024 by segment. For the full-year forecast by segment, ordinary income for Dry Bulk is projected to improve by JPY 9.5 billion year-on-year. However, it is expected to decrease by JPY 2 billion from the previous forecast, resulting in an ordinary income of JPY 13 billion.

In the market for Dry Bulk, compared to the previous fiscal year, market conditions were stable in the first half of the year due to very strong demand for bauxite and iron ore transport using Capesize vessels. For the second half, we expect domestic Chinese demand for steel and other materials to decline, mainly due to the slump in China's real estate market, and the volume of iron ore shipped to China is also likely to decrease to a certain extent. Based on this outlook, a temporary softening of market conditions for Capesize vessels is expected in this half of the year. Turning to Panamax and smaller sizes, China saw a good grain harvest in the first half, and demand for grain transport from South America, primarily for corn, are below expectations.

Although the market softened temporarily, it is expected to recover somewhat as cargo movements shift from corn to soybeans going forward. As for the medium and long-term outlook for Dry Bulk, concerns remain regarding a potential slowdown in China's economy. Nevertheless, we expect demand growth from emerging markets, particularly India, combined with limited new vessel orders, especially for Capesize vessels, to provide underlying support to the market conditions. For Energy Resource Transport, we forecast an ordinary income decrease of JPY 2.5 billion year-on-year, JPY 1 billion below the previous forecast, resulting in a projected ordinary income of JPY 5 billion. This forecast is based on one-off factors. Even so, other vessel types are generating stable earnings, primarily through medium to long-term contracts, and most of our current investments are expected to start enhancing profitability starting around FY 2026, mainly for LNG carrier business.

For Product Logistics, we anticipate an ordinary income improvement of JPY 98.9 billion year-on-year, JPY 23.5 billion above the previous forecast, with a projected ordinary income of JPY 227.5 billion. Within this segment, ordinary income for Containership business is expected to improve by JPY 99.2 billion year-on-year, JPY 17 billion above the previous forecast, resulting in an ordinary income of JPY 145 billion. This means that other businesses under Product Logistics, including Car Carriers, are expected to improve by JPY 6.5 billion above the previous forecast. For Car Carrier business, transport demand remains strong, particularly from Asia to North America. Supply and demand is already tight, and the security situation in the Red Sea has forced us to reroute vessels via the Cape of Good Hope. We estimate this is reducing overall supply by about 6%. Accordingly, the approximately 45 new vessels being delivered this year should help to bridge this gap.

We're also keeping a close eye on the impact of the EU's extra tariffs on Chinese EVs, which took effect in November. Based on conversations with various customers, EV makers seem to be taking a range of response measures. These include shifting away from battery EVs, which are subject to the tariffs, and focusing on other types, such as hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and gasoline vehicles. We will keep monitoring the situation to assess the impact. As I already mentioned, the supply-demand situation remains very tight. Even if it is not necessary to reroute vessels via the Cape of Good Hope, our outlook would remain unchanged. In other words, we expect a tight supply-demand balance to continue through the end of 2025 and into early 2026. By fully utilizing our new eco-friendly larger vessels, we will work to restore freight rates, secure liftings, and expand earnings.

Fiscal year 2024, second quarter result of Ocean Network Express, ONE. Looking at container ship business in the first half of the fiscal year, although consumer spending recovered, particularly in North America, there was uncertainty ahead of talks scheduled for October with the International Longshoremen's Association, ILA, which is the union representing port workers on the East Coast of North America, to renegotiate their labor agreement. Meanwhile, shipments to Europe continue to be affected by the Red Sea security situation, which has required the rerouting of vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, significantly extending voyage days. In order to avoid this, scheduled shipments were brought forward in the first half of the year, with cargo movements remaining strong and the short-term freight rate market rising.

As a result, ONE's after-tax profit for the first half increased by about $2 billion year-on-year to $2.778 billion, compared to $700 million in the same period last year. Fiscal year 2024, full year forecast of Ocean Network Express. For the second half, we expect the usual off-season coupled with the impact of early shipments in the first half. This will likely lead to a decrease in transport demand and a certain level of decline in the short-term freight rate market. We've also factored in some temporary costs related to an anticipated alliance restructuring around February next year. Profit for the second half is forecasted at $317 million, with a full-year profit projection of about $3.095 billion. C, status and progress of the medium-term management plan. C.1, capital policy. Capital policy progress and corporate value improvement.

I would like to give you a progress update on our medium-term management plan. Since the start of the plan period, we have been focused on enhancing our earning power and profitability. In May of this year, we raised the ordinary income target for the final year of the plan from JPY 140 billion- JPY 160 billion, an increase of JPY 20 billion. As mentioned earlier, our latest forecast for the current fiscal year is now JPY 240 billion. Operating cash flow is also projected to increase by approximately JPY 100 billion from the initial forecast, reaching a total of JPY 1.5 trillion over the plan period. Meanwhile, we are still committed to conducting and accelerating essential investments that improve corporate value without relaxing our investment discipline. The investment target remains at JPY 740 billion, unchanged from the figure announced in May.

Regarding our optimal capital structure, we will continue to assess the necessary capital levels for K Line's own businesses and container ship business. As we have consistently emphasized, our basic policy remains the same. We aim to balance financial soundness with capital efficiency, and based on cash flow, we will pursue the growth and investments necessary for improving corporate value, while also distributing shareholder returns using a flexible approach. As a result of the increase in operating cash flow, we have raised the cumulative shareholder return amount for the medium-term management plan period from the previous level of JPY 700 billion or more to JPY 730 billion or more, an increase of JPY 30 billion. Specifically, for fiscal 2024, we have planned a JPY 15 increase in the dividend per share, bringing it to JPY 100.

We will carry out a share buyback of JPY 90 billion as an additional shareholder return, in line with our flexible approach. This follows the buyback of JPY 90.8 billion worth of shares from May to July this year. We are now planning a further share buyback of up to JPY 90 billion, or 36 million shares. As I said earlier, we will continue to strengthen our earnings power, enhance profitability, and improve capital efficiency, aiming to consistently achieve an ROE of 10% or more. In this process, we will also reduce our cost of capital and aim to return to a P/B ratio of one or more, while maintaining and improving it. C.2, capital policy. Cash allocation. Regarding cash allocation, operating cash flow has increased by JPY 100 billion since the announcement in May of this year. We now expect a cumulative total of JPY 1.5 trillion for the medium-term management plan period.

As a result, regarding our cash flows, we have decided to increase our cumulative shareholder returns from JPY 700 billion or more to JPY 730 billion or more. C.3, capital policy. Shareholders return policy. We plan to increase the dividend by JPY 15 per share to JPY 100 for the current fiscal year. We will also conduct a flexible additional return through a share buyback of up to JPY 90 billion or 36 million shares. The share buyback will be carried out through off-auction own share buyback trading, ToSTNeT-3, and auction market on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The buyback period is from November 6, 2024 to February 28, 2025. The repurchased shares will, in principle, be canceled. This concludes the update on our shareholder return policy for fiscal 2024. C.4, business strategy. Three businesses that will drive growth and new business areas. Growth strategy progress.

Let me give you a progress update on our business strategy. In the coal and iron ore carrier business, we are steadily replacing older vessels. This includes the acquisition of eco-friendly vessels such as those powered by LNG, including Capesize vessels. The aim is to maintain and expand our stable earnings base. This year, we took delivery of a 200,000 metric ton Capesize bulk carrier powered mainly by LNG, a first for K Line's dry bulk carriers. Stable operation of this vessel has begun under a long-term contract. Meanwhile, after thoroughly confirming demand, we are progressing with orders for additional vessels. Acquisition of medium to long-term contracts is also advancing. We are focusing on long-term charter contracts of LNG carriers.

The number of LNG carriers we operate is expected to grow from the current 46 vessels- 65 vessels by the final year of the medium-term management plan in fiscal 2026, and to 75 vessels or more by fiscal 2030. As for the current level of progress, we signed contracts for 12 LNG carriers with QatarEnergy last year, and four new contracts this year, bringing the total to 16 vessels. Furthermore, we are accumulating contracts one by one, so the 65-vessel fleet by fiscal 2026 is now almost in sight. We are now intensifying efforts to enhance earnings growth toward fiscal 2030. In Car Carrier business, we are working to further enhance our recovered profitability by steadily replacing vessels with competitive, eco-friendly, LNG-powered larger vessels. As of this fiscal year, five new LNG-powered larger vessels have already been delivered, with more on the way.

These vessels help us reduce our Scope 3 CO2 emissions. Further contracts supporting these efforts are in the works. Since all of these are larger vessels, we are taking advantage of their larger size to improve liftings and transportation efficiency. By incorporating more high and heavy cargo and large non-motorized cargo, we aim to further strengthen our earnings base. While shipping remains our core focus, by utilizing the experience and expertise we have accumulated in the maritime industry, we're also developing new business areas that can help reduce CO2 emissions and achieve a decarbonized society. Regarding the new business of liquefied CO2 transport, our project with Northern Lights, the world's first full-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) operation, is finally set to get underway this fall.

We have signed a third charter contract with Northern Lights and are actively pursuing further business expansion in Europe while securing new contracts. Meanwhile, we are exploring into offshore wind turbine support vessels, which are expected to be constructed in Japan going forward. We have established a marine geosurvey vessel business as a joint venture with a British company. These vessels are for conducting marine geotechnical surveys, which are essential for the construction of offshore wind turbines and cable laying. One Japanese-flagged geosurvey vessel has just been put into service. We look forward to the success of these project.