Gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I am Alexander, your operator today. Welcome, and thank you for joining the AT&S conference call on the results for the first half year of the fiscal year 2023 to 2024. Throughout today's recorded presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. The presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, you may press nine and the star key on your telephone. If any participant has difficulty hearing the conference, please press zero and the hash key for operator assistance. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Philipp Gebhardt. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Alexander. Good afternoon or morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the AT&S Q3 2023, 2024 conference call. With us today are Andreas Gerstenmayer, Chief Executive Officer, and Petra Preining, Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Gerstenmayer will start with a brief overview of the key developments as well as a market update. Afterwards, Ms. Preining will comment on the financial figures and our guidance. As Alexander mentioned, the presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. Now, I would like to hand over to Mr. Gerstenmayer. The floor is yours.
Thank you very much, Mr. Gebhardt. A warm welcome from my side as well to our Q3 earnings call. Let us immediately jump into the first slide. What are the key developments we are looking back during Q1 to Q3? First of all, what is obvious from our numbers and also our recent ad hoc announcement is that Q3 did not really show unfavorable demand development. Compared to Q2, we had to consider and recognize that, especially in certain market segments, the market was not in favor to us. First of all, it was over the last quarters, the outlook from the market analysts were significantly deteriorating in regards of server substrate demand. I will come to that later about the numbers.
Second, the mobile device business, which is in some turbulences already quite a while, also showed certain weaknesses, which ended up in a not so favorable product mix for us, and also due to the available capacity and the low demand, the price pressure has also gone up over the last quarters. So this finally impacted mainly our top line. This was also the reason why we had to readjust our revenue outlook for the running fiscal year from the previous EUR 1.7 billion to EUR 1.9 billion, down to EUR 1.6 billion. Basically summarizing, the entire market is still quite volatile. As you can see, the changes between Q2 and Q3, there's a lot of changes ongoing every other day.
Visibility is limited, and as you can also see, that market analysts are also struggling with interpreting the demand and the forecasts. I can also show you later a little bit the uncertainties that are there. Nevertheless, we could finally confirm our margin, our EBITDA margin guided. I think this is by the negative message on the top line, the positive message on the bottom line and margin. Why are we able to do so? Details later, mainly driven by our excellent execution of the efficiency and cost reduction plans, projects, and this is heavily supporting it. As every cycle, every crisis has sometimes an end, we continue to prepare ourselves for the market recovery, which is now expected by all sources available for the second half of 2024.
We still continue to prepare our plans in Kulim and Leoben. The projects are nicely on track. Probably you have seen from the media, the opening ceremony of Kulim last week, and we are continuing to prepare for the ramp end of the calendar year 2024. The other good thing, the good message is, our medium guidance is still confirmed, and we will go later to that detail as well. So moving on to the next slide. Here you can see some details about our two pillars of the savings program. The one is the OpEx program, the other is the CapEx program. The OpEx program, which is, a program for two years or eight quarters, will show an impact of EUR 440 million savings in the two subsequent years.
As you also can see from that graph, I know it's just simplified, but visualizing the progress, we have gone through the first three quarters, and we are completely on track with our targets. So the first three quarters are fully implemented and showing results, as you also can see from our bottom-line margin generated and reported. So we are confident that we will continue that successful execution, and that will also help us to be prepared for a more competitive re-ramp after the business will improve again. On the CapEx part, also two things. The one is real savings, so that we really turned around each and every project, reviewed each and every project to the minimum we really need to invest.
Saying that, it's also important to, to highlight that this is not impacting any commitment to any customer, not any commitment for the future growth. It's an efficient and effective usage of CapEx allocated. And the other one is also a push out of not needed investment that we will most likely do in a later point of it, at a later point. So some impressions about a very important milestone, which is the opening of Kulim. For us, it was really a pleasure that it was first time our big important customer showing commitment, showing presence in front of politics, our employees, and media.
So I think this also could show and make us confident, and AT&S people, it makes proud, that we have developed in collaboration with one of the big players in the semiconductor industry, another big player, and that is also committing publicly to AT&S, with the reasons why AT-- AMD is interested and motivated to work with AT&S due to the performance already shown, the quality level, the technologies available, and. So this was really a very nice event, and I think can also give us all confidence that we have a new, strong partner on our side. Some details about the campus, what is now opened. On the pictures, upper right, you see the office building. This is necessary. The lower one is the production plant, which should generate business finally.
We have now the first plant opened. We invested so far in the location, in the entire campus, and it's not just the factory building, it's a lot of site buildings for waste, water, whatever treatment, and EUR 1 billion. At the end of 2024, when HVM starts, we have around about 2,500 employees on site, 1,500 blue collars, 900 white collars. White collars mainly composed out of engineers that drive the processes, they qualify, they take care about the quality. As said, HVM starts end of 2024, and the main product groups we will produce is IC substrates or ABF substrates for server applications, including cloud service, artificial intelligence applications, and so on.
Also there, if you remember back, we were able, couple of months ago, to communicate that AT&S is an important supplier for the MI300 platform, so this is directly addressing the AI segment of the market. Also, Leoben is progressing quite nicely. Main tools have been moved in. At the end of the calendar year, when we start HVM there, it's around about 450 employees. The split in blue and white collar is a little bit different there. Main reason is that we have also the R&D center on site, and therefore, we have more need for blue, for white collar than for blue collar, and this is the reason why this split looks different than the one in Kulim, which is a real high-volume manufacturing site. We have achieved phase ready , which is clean room in condition and specification.
The first qualification lots have been successfully run through the first machines and equipments, which is also showing nice results. By the way, this is the same for Kulim. And also there, we see a significant faster ramp of yield than we have in the past 10 years ago, seen in Chongqing. So we see clearly the learning curve we have run through in Chongqing and transferred now all the know-how to the new locations. Products beside R&D activities and technology development is, again, IC substrates for smaller customers, and also application including cloud server and others, which is nicely fitting to our technology strategy. Talking a little bit about the markets that are underlying the recent numbers and the performance we have shown, starting with the PCB market, I think the slide should show familiar.
It's just the update of the slide we have shown the last quarters already. Here you can see that, in the PCB communication consumer computing market, I would say it's kind of stabilizing the situation, which has shown a significant downturn before, but it's stabilizing more or less on the same levels. Expectation for the future is there will be recovery and, average growth rate for the coming years of around about 5%. On the automotive, industrial, medical, aerospace part, the dip was not that big in 2022, and, more or less, a stable development, in 2023 as well. Moving on to next slide. This is just one level deeper, deep dive into smartphone market globally, and it's now really smartphone, it's not PCB, worth to mention.
Here you can see, comparing Q4 2021, where we have been in the midst of the COVID crisis against Q4 2023. We see a 12% decline, which is already an indication about usage of capacities available in the market. And also, if you compare Q1 2022 against Q1 2024 expectation or forecast, again, 9% down. Also there, it's worth to mention that still 2022 was COVID time, so and now what we see is traditional seasonality is back, which shows the impact in Q1, Q2 calendar quarter, traditionally, and now all these special effects are gone, and we need to prepare ourselves for a more intense seasonality for the future.
But this is what we have always experienced for the last 20 years, so it's coming back, and we know how to handle that. Moving on to next slide, we talk about the substrate market. Here, you can see what I mentioned before, some uncertainty between different market analysts. First of all, let's start the development in 2022 for server shipment server substrates. It was 16% decline. Expectation for 2024 is between 7%-17% rebound, so it depends which or whom of the analysts you ask. From there, they have a common understanding that the growth for the next three years can be or will be around 8%. On the right-hand side, you see the notebook market, which showed already the impact in 2021, with 19% decline.
Another decline in 2022, 13%, and somehow stabilizing on that lower level now, which is not so far away from the 2019 numbers. In future, there will be around about 4%-- or is expected to be around about 4% recovery and growth. But, for AT&S, it means we anyhow focusing on the left-hand side, which is the more important market segment for us in future. This was all unit numbers. It's important to mention that, because on the next slide, we talk about value, and this shows significant better picture. This is now the average market. We, we do not have available, differentiated market numbers in value for server and client markets, so it's the combined, market value. Here you can see the dip in value was even larger in 2023.
The reason is what I said before, exactly the downturn in the server market, which caused the decline in the value, because it's overrepresented by higher value per component. We expect, and the market expects, a value growth from to next year for 7%, and in average, for the next three years, of 16%. Keeping in mind that we have shown on the previous slide, unit number growth of eight and a value growth of 16, so it's double. We can clearly see what we have always been talking about, the products getting more complex, the products getting more expensive, so the market is driven by value and not by unit numbers so much.
This is form factors, this is layer counts, and, by the way, all that trends, besides the increased value, it's also more capacity consumption. So the capacity that are already available in the market and that are under preparation, will be needed for these larger form factor products in future. Yeah, I think this was a very brief, fast run through what has happened over the last, especially third quarter. What are the impacting factors? What is our market environment? And I'm now happy to hand over to Ms. Preining to run you through the numbers.
Thank you very much, Mr. Gerstenmayer, and a very warm welcome also from my side. The year-to-date, quarter one to three, twenty twenty-three/twenty twenty-four results, summaries, data at a glance. The revenue we were able to report at EUR 1.2 billion, which is a decrease by 19%. Please keep in mind that the previous year was heavily impacted by a very strong first half, hence the delta is has been also reported about in the last quarters. The result of EUR 1.2 billion turns into EUR 268 million EBITDA. From the decrease, you can also see a stronger decrease in EBITDA than in revenue, which is a translation of the heavy price pressure which we currently face in the market.
Overall, that adds to EUR 7 million net profit. In the lower part of the slide, you see, in the graph, the still very high volatility we do have in the market. 7% year-over-year from Q3 2022/2023 to Q3 2023/2024, and a -14% from last quarter to this quarter we talk about. The last quarter delta, Mr. Gerstenmayer has referred to that earlier, is also based on the seasonality we have seen in the past. Overall, the situation, as you do know, is heavily impacted by macroeconomic trends, as inflation and interest. ECB has not decreased the interest in January. We will see how that will turn out over the year. It is still expected to be reduced, however.
Turning the page, looking into the business unit Electronic Solutions, we see a revenue decline year-over-year by 22%, which equally splits into weaker product mix volume and price pressure, and a 7% decline from the Q2 to Q3. The latter, the quarterly delta is, as already said, impacted or was impacted by seasonality, which we have seen before, driven by mobile device, but as well, by weak macroeconomics, in particular for industrial products. The margin is a result of the price pressure and the volume decline, and we have the same trends year-over-year as well as quarter-over-quarter. Quarter-over-quarter, due to the seasonality, also an unfavorable volume mix effect is part of the decline. Turning the page, the business unit Microelectronics show a slightly different trend.
Here we see a positive deviation from Q3 of the previous year to this quarter three by +46%. The volume growth overcompensates the price pressure, which then on the margin also explains the decline in margin. Quarter-over-quarter, the -23%, we see an unfavorable volume mix effect due to the still very high server inventory throughout the supply chain. This is also the effect that drives the margin down from Q2 to Q3. On the next page, we show our usual slide on cash, cash equivalents, and unused credit lines, and the development since March 2023.
Overall, I have to say, and we have a slide on that, and you will see that on the working capital management, that we very carefully deploy our resources, so also our liquidity to also improve our liquidity situation. Given the strong CapEx deployment, the deviation from March to December is mitigated, so we are still on a very solid financial structure with EUR 1.231 billion cash, cash equivalents, and unused credit lines. The maturity of outstanding debt instruments, we have slightly changed the view because of many requests we have received. It was rather difficult to read, so we now show the bars on fiscal year level. And hence, that might deviate slightly from what you used from the past.
We similarly to the past, we have roughly 40% of debt instruments at fixed interest rates, where we do see, however, not surprisingly, a big change in the current financing cost or at 4.5%. Just as a reminder, at the same time last year, we talked about 2%. We also will see a question which we regularly receive, further customer prepayments. On the working capital side, and this is something I already spoke 2 slides earlier about, you can clearly see the high management focus, and also therefore the effect. Knowing, however, that based on the calculation method, this is inflated by the fact that we compare the current status to the last 12 months of revenue. However, the trend clearly is improving.
A lot of management actions are gone into that. You can see that on the inventory levels, on the accounts receivables, and also compensating by accounts payable status that is kept rather flattish. So we are quite proud of the achievements that have been reached over the last couple of quarters. However, roughly 8% is not the target range we will see forward-looking. On the reduced or shortened balance sheet summary, we have rather flattish total asset structure with a decline in equity. Hence, the equity ratio got burdened by little shy of 4%, reached 24% by 31st of December, 2023.
As already communicated several quarters that we anticipate that below 30% during the high CapEx deployment time. Our net debt, the leverage has reached a ratio of four point one thereof. Cash flow, you can see the cash flow from operating activities compared to last year, is driven by very strong working capital management. We had seen that on the slides before. On the investing activities, we run slightly behind the comparable quarters of the previous year. In total, the CapEx amount is by roughly EUR 100 million shy of what we have had last year. Nevertheless, the EUR 1.1 billion, which we have stated, is the target for this year.
The effects you have already seen on slides before, as Mr. Gerstenmayer spoke about, our two large CapEx programs. Second but last slide, our current year guidance was adjusted lately to EUR 1.6 billion, from initially EUR 1.7 billion to EUR 1.9 billion. The margin grid of 25% to 29% is still the range we target and feel quite comfortable with. The startup effects in Kulim and Leoben are unchanged, and so are the CapEx protection forward looking. On the midterm guidance, Mr. Gerstenmayer has already taken it in his intro slide. The midterm guidance of EUR 3.5 billion for the year 2026, 2027, as well as the profitability and other KPIs remain unchanged.
With this, I have come to an end of my presentation, and we're looking forward to receiving your questions. Thank you very much.
Yeah. Thank you, Mr. Gerstenmayer. Thank you, Ms. Preining . We will now start the Q&A. In order to give everyone the opportunity to raise questions, we would like to ask you to limit yourselves to two questions. Once we are through, if there are still questions and still time, we will start another round. Now, I would like to hand over to Alexander to handle the session.
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press nine and the star key on your telephone keypad. In case you wish to cancel your question, press nine and the star key again. Please press nine and the star key now to state your question. The first question comes from George Brown, from DB. Please go ahead.
Thanks, guys, for taking my questions. I have two, if I may. So you've reiterated the medium-term guidance, but given these weaker than expected trends in some of your key end markets, what gives you confidence in reaching this guidance in fiscal year 2027? And then secondly, do you have any update on the capital raise situation? Any details or updates on that would be great. Thank you.
Okay, I take the first one. So thank you very much. What gives us confidence? I think the confidence is generated out of the running projects. We just reported that we had the opening ceremony in Kulim. There we see good progress. We see also good communication with the customer, and, yeah, our confidence level, once Kulim, and if Kulim keeps the schedule, what is expected by us, then, this is a big contribution to the to reaching the midterm guidance. The other one is for sure [uncertain], which is a smaller one, but still a contribution. So capacities are all in place. Interaction with customers is good, and there is also no reason that we should anticipate that markets will not get back stronger.
As I said, we expect a strong value-driven growth, so capacities are there, execution good, and the markets will recover because the components are needed.
Okay, then I take the second question. As you do know, on the back of the ad hoc announcement of thirteenth of November 2023, the executive board is still considering increasing capital from authorized capital up to a maximum of 50%. So the situation compared to the ad hoc remains unchanged. These considerations also supported, if you like, by the ad hoc, now have added additional key interest from potential investors of the capital market. The company is currently evaluating the various options and is holding talks with various interested parties. These discussions are, of course, conducted under existing confidentiality agreements, and therefore I have to ask for your understanding that we are currently unable to provide any further information.
Any capital measure is still subject to approval of the supervisory board, and naturally, once this has happened, either way, we would inform the market accordingly.
Perfect. Thank you.
The next question comes from Patrick Steiner from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Good morning, it's Patrick Steiner. Thanks for taking my questions. First question: you mentioned, you mentioned heavy price pressure in the market. Can you elaborate a bit further on this in terms of the magnitudes of price pressure in the different end markets? I know you, you can't really communicate any, any numbers, but maybe some kind of ranking or something like that? This would be the first one.
Yeah, it's difficult to talk about the magnitude because it's quite different in different applications already. So what I can tell you is, the reason for the price pressure, for sure, it's the capacity available in the market that is not utilized currently. This is normal, like, you always see it in such market situation like it is. But now, going into really the magnitude, it's really too complex. We would need to run through all the applications of the portfolio because it's very, very different in different applications.
Mm-hmm. Okay, thank you very much. Second one from my side. On page ten in the presentation, you said basically market so the substrate market growth expectations in 2024 are, like, 7%, expected the market analysts. I guess your mobile devices business is likely to shrink as they weak in 2024. So what does that mean for group revenue growth in 2024, 2025 compared to 2023, 2024?
I would like to start with the mobile phone part. As you can see from slide seven, this is referring to the PCB. We do not foresee a shrinkage of the PCB markets. What I explained was the number, unit numbers, that was or is forecasted for the smartphone business. So it's different because the question is always, and again, sorry to jump back, this is the average smartphone market globally. So the question is: What is the exposure of AT&S in this market? Is it more on the high end or on the mid or on the low end? What products are used there? And so on and so on. And on slide seven, it's not units, it's a value of the PCBs.
So as you know, AT&S typically positions itself on the higher end of the PCB market, which is typically also the higher end of the smartphones. The development can be different. So be careful with, with, drawing lines between PCB directly to the smartphone market. I just wanted to explain how the entire market around us is evolving, and, yeah, there's different segments as well there. Coming to the substrate market, what was the question? Maybe 7%, you meant, I think.
Yes, exactly. On page 10, it says, 7% growth.
Yeah, this is value growth, which the expectation is that this is also coming in parallel with the recovery of the server market and higher valued products. So as I said before, today, we have, or in the last quarter, we have seen a unbalanced mix that was mainly driven by client products, which are definitely the lower valued products, and the server ones are the higher valued. So we foresee a shift in the midpoint of the mix for the next fiscal year, and to come recover also the average pricing there.
Okay, perfect. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Gustav Frohberg from Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions as well, two also from my side. First is on midterm guidance. Again, we're talking about price pressure, as you see it today. To what extent does your midterm guidance rely on prices, rising again? Any color on prices and midterm guidance would be great. And then the second question is on, your leverage profile. Could you remind us, about your covenants, on the debt that you have, and whether or not you feel comfortable with your current liquidity situation, notwithstanding any capital increase? Thank you.
Okay, I start with the midterm guidance. As I tried to explain, for sure, there is an impact of prices on top and bottom line, but there is still on this slide 10, which we already referred several times today, the expectation that the value growth due to higher valued products is coming because we need it from a technical point of view. The market will need it from a technical point of view, otherwise, the performance of the processor packages will not be realized. Our confidence level is quite high that there will be recovery, especially once the server demand kicks in again, and the new technologies are kicking in. Because we see already the new technologies in front of us, which we run in prototypes today.
These are significant larger form factors and higher layer counts, as I said, and underlying the values of the components is higher. So with that, we did the simulation of the midterm guidance, and we do it constantly. And also there, the results show that this is still the situation that we can confirm the midterm guidance.
Well, then I take the question on leverage. As the leverage has been above 4x, it will not come as a surprise to you that in that current situation, with this high spending on CapEx and the current market situation, the leverage will remain high over the next two quarters, for sure. In particular, the leverage of four point one is, please keep in mind, you always calculate four quarters. The last quarter of the last fiscal year, we had an EBITDA of zero, hence, once that has grown out of the system, if you like, that will slightly improve.
But at the same time, we keep investing, and as already stated in the previous analyst calls, the last year and this year will be the highest spend on CapEx due to the growth programs we have at stake. Now, we have also said and shown that we have roughly EUR 1.2 billion on cash, cash equivalents and unused credit lines. The cooperation with our financing partners is very, very strong, and we keep, of course, the liquidity to a certain amount, which is benefiting AT&S. We also do see interest from financing parties and partners to increase their position with us.
So far, and I think in due course, there will be also a press release on the latest statement. Overall, you do know that we have a step up, but no hard covenants, so there is no breakup fees. But this is something I think you're already aware of, because that question comes regularly. So I think that is known to the market.
Thank you.
And the next question comes from Daniel Lion from Erste Group . Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thanks for letting me on as well. I would like to understand a little bit more about the dynamics that you would expect sequentially when moving out of the December quarter development and the market recovery shapes. Of course, I would assume that as you focus on the high end in both of your segments, that you should do better than the average market that you showed us in your slides. But it's really, really hard to put it down into figures and to model the quarterly or sequential recovery going forward with respect to demand, capacities, pricing, and yeah, maybe you could help us a little bit on that.
Yeah. This is basically the crystal ball we all have in front of us. I tried to explain a little bit. So for the coming period of time, as we said, the recovery is expected to peak in second half of calendar year. So this implicitly says that the next two quarters, at least, should not be expected to be that strong. There is also still kind of inventory correction needed. Yeah, what should I say more? So the visibility is our problem, as I said in the very beginning already, in markets like that, and even also the market analysts are struggling with that. I cannot really give a satisfactory answer on that. We need to work through the next quarters. I think this is what it is.
So it's driving on site level and driving forward our efficiency programs and manage the things like they appear.
So would you have visibility on the recovery in the second half year? Is there any, at least a range, or do you have any feeling if you'd be able, throughout the next fiscal year, to come close to your available capacities? Or is this. Are we still actually, do we need to see also the recovery just building up in the course of the next fiscal year in order to become stronger than in the year thereafter? Or just to get a feeling of what's realistic. It's not about giving us a precise number. We all know that the market is rather lumpy at the moment, but. What are you seeing and what's yeah.
This is what we built in our slides we have shown before. So the best we know is built in there. So if we have, or if we assume that recovery starts second half of the year, and we can anticipate either in units, in different markets, a growth. When I take an example for server IC substrates between 7% to 17%, then this mainly will be created out of the second half year demands. The same is true for all the others. Finally, this is what we know best today. Will it be the same number in the next quarter? I don't know. We're constantly observing the market. There is no written guarantee that it is happening like that, but it is our best assumption we have today.
So, the numbers are there. I think you have at least annual numbers, also in value for the substrates. Breakdown in quarters is for sure, we have our assumption underlying, but I think this is what the market analysts provide us.
And then the second one on your CapEx. You mentioned you have invested now EUR 1 billion in Kulim, which, doing the math, there should be some EUR 350 million to be still invested in order to finalize the plan, at least based on your initial investments plans and deducting the interfacility. So what's left actually in Leoben then? And how do you expect this to be split in the coming quarters?
These are not.
Yeah, well, I mean, we have still one quarter to go. As the number that has been shown refers to Q3. There is the overall programs, I think, are known. We don't split, or we don't give guidance on quarterly CapEx data so far, but we just do that on an annual basis. Given the numbers that have been announced already, I think you have quite good overview on what is still to come. The building and infrastructure is basically ready in both on both sides. We do have wind and water tight for plants too. And currently, equipment has been brought in or is on the way to be brought in.
Qualification has happened, so there is some equipment still to move in to complete the site. But please do understand, and I'm sorry for not answering it. On a quarterly basis, we have not yet, or we have never disclosed CapEx on quarterly basis.
Oh, okay. Let me put it differently. You reduced your CapEx spending in the quarter compared to the first two quarters of the year, slightly. Is this expected to, as a new run rate, going forward, as you moved already, basically close to finalizing the plans? Or is this just a lower number because payments will happen later?
It's a little bit of both, right? So there are fluctuations depending on the actual equipment that are brought in. So that cannot be timed on a daily basis, so that happens as we go. And on the other side, yes, I think it's a valued opportunity to also negotiate with our suppliers on payment terms when it comes to CapEx.
Okay. Thanks a lot.
The next question comes from Jürgen Wagner, from Stifel. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good afternoon. Thank you. I have a question on your gross margin. When I look at the year-over-year dynamics, how much was... So the decline from close to 20% to now around 6% or 7%, how much of this decline is due to pricing and underutilization? Can you quantify that? Thank you.
I mean, what I've already said in my presentation, year-over-year, and we have it also on slide 13, for the business unit ES, Electronic Solutions, the revenue decline of 22% equally is split, in, if you like, volume and price. On the business unit ME, the volume increase is significantly higher than the price pressure. However, we have benefited from the quantities we have on stream. The price pressure, however, is still very high when it comes in the quarterly comparison, Q3 of the previous year to Q3 of this fiscal year. We do not split it in under consumption and mix out of the customer orders, however.
Okay, thank you.
The next question comes from Teresa Schinwald , from Raiffeisen Bank International. Please go ahead.
Thank you, good afternoon. My first question would be on the new term guidance, your confidence regarding the adjusted EBITDA margin for the full year, translating to a minimum of EUR 400 million. Is there anything that we might be overlooking? What, what makes you that confident on, given the seasonality, or is there also maybe some bullet effect from the cost savings program?
Typically, what we are doing is we are every quarter calculating a new forecast. Our latest numbers, input numbers from the forecast showed us that on the top line, we will not reach this one, the original guidance, EUR 1.7-EUR 1.9. But we see due to the impact of the cost saving programs, that our guided margin range is achievable. So it was guided 25% to 20%.
Nine.
9%, thank you. In this range, according to our numbers we have available from our latest forecast, we will achieve that.
Let me add to that. The guidance is on EBITDA adjusted, as you have already addressed. So if you like, if you add to the EBITDA, which we have reported right now, the startup cost, then there is not that much left to the EUR 400 million EBITDA you have just mentioned. So are we confident that the Q4 lies within the 25% you've mentioned is now the floor, that this can be achieved? Yes, because this is what we have guided. This is the best of knowledge we do have at current state. But yes, we feel confident.
Okay, great. Appreciating very much that one of your customer is okay with being named. The customer having kind of disappointed on some product line that you might be involved in. How do you feel about the customer guidance of expected revenues in his AI business? Upside risk, downside risk, where you're leaning?
Are you now talking about a specific customer or?
Yeah, about AMD.
Yeah, you know,
I'm still so used to not naming customers.
Okay. Yeah, but, you know, there's always movement in the portfolio of customers. In overall, I think we have already read it, this customer is quite confident in his, in his business. He sees himself well positioned in the most important market segments. And, yeah, I think if there is, there's always sometimes a project canceled, a new one kicks in. Yeah, I think this is, this is the underlying story, and this is how the, how the whole thing, how the whole thing works. So now it's a bit more, more transparent with that customer, but, yeah, this is what we do for the last 30 years, myself, for the last 14 years.
Okay. Thank you.
We have a follow-up question. It comes from Patrick Steiner. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you very much. Two questions. First one would be about the midterm guidance. I mean, this is roughly EUR 2 billion more in sales than you will generate in the year 2023, 2024, basically. How large will be the contribution from your existing large substrate customer? And is it, is this coming only from better utilization of existing capacities, or are additional capacities from that customer included in the guidance as well? And also, how much it come from AMD, roughly?
Okay, so this is what we don't disclose, specific customer numbers. What I can tell you, the underlying story under that, we calculate the midterm guidance is for sure we have a certain utilization of our existing plants, which is combining PCB plants and substrate plants. We have also assumed that Chongqing III, which is still not fully ramped, will be ramped. We have Kulim on stream, but it's only plant one. It's not assuming that plant two is already on stream. This would be in addition, and we have additionally the [uncertain] or the Leoben plant up and running. So this is the composition of capacities and output to reach the midterm guidance, assuming a certain product mix, assuming a certain price mix of the products.
But for the time being, and as we do that regularly, we see that this is a good chance that we will achieve that.
Okay, thank you very much. Maybe one more. Talking about average financing costs, this is really something you report on a quarterly basis. It went up again to, I think, some 4.5%, at the moment, if I'm not mistaken. Some questions—what kind of cost of debt or interest rate do you currently finance and refinance, and where does that number go with the next couple of quarters?
Thank you very much for the question. It's a very good question. It's also in line with what we all of us see, the interest curve is depressing. So, we carefully plan between fixed and variable interest rates. And we would assume, and this is now not AT&S or me talking, but similarly to what you also hear from the analysts, that we will or might see movement from Fed and ECB during that year. Maybe in the first half already, there are between different bankers, different bets ongoing. But for sure, they all expect at least one, maybe two, and the very bullish ones, three steps down during that year.
Allow me to say that the overall interest planning is we adjust to the situation on the market. But you're very rightfully said, it's 4.5%, given the current market environment, which is significantly higher than what we have seen last year. I don't think that this comes as a surprise. We carefully manage this or overview the situation and adjust as we go between the split of fixed and variable interest.
Okay, thanks. And what's your, like, a rough number of your current financing costs? Is it, like, 6%, 8% for refinancing and financing your?
Currently, if you would sign up now, it's four point five plus a certain spread, as you do know. And allow me to not disclose, because we do have still old, we were able to finance certain parts earlier. So it's a mix, but I don't think that this comes as a surprise. If you would ask the market and the bank the question, so what you're heading is whether our leverage appetite is our financing cost. Now, it will not come as a surprise, but it doesn't help. That's for sure.
Mm-hmm.
We are very lucky that we had, with EUR 1.2 billion cash, cash equivalents and, and this credit line, quite a nice buffer, which we can use, forward-looking.
Okay, perfect. Understood. Thank you very much.
So we have one minute left, so one last question from Daniel Lion from Erste Group . Please go ahead.
Thanks for giving me the opportunity to ask the last one. I would like to just follow up on what you mentioned regarding further payments of client payments. It has increased again in the current December quarter. How much would you still expect to come in the coming quarters, in total, roughly, as a ballpark?
Well, uh-
Is it 50? Is it 100? Is it more?
You put that very elegantly because you do know us so well. I mean, we very transparently disclose the customer prepayment we receive. We also have always stated that roughly EUR 850 million will be received. The overall number at, let's say, at the end of this next fiscal year, will be slightly higher because we do have the plans to get a bit more, but it will be along that ballpark number. And now I'm telling you a bit more, you will also see by the end of the fiscal year, another step up on that part.
Perfect. Okay, thanks a lot.
Yeah. Thank you for your participation and questions. If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact our IR team, Johannes Martin and myself. Thanks again, and goodbye.