Dear ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the conference call of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG. At our customer's request, this conference will be recorded. As a reminder, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. After a short statement, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. If any participants have difficulties hearing the conference, please press star key, followed by zero on your telephone for operator assistance. I will now hand you over to Stephan Sweerts-Sporck, who will lead you through this conference. Please go ahead.
Hello, good morning, and welcome on the part of MM Group. My name is Stephan Sweerts-Sporck, Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications. It's a great pleasure to have you joining this Q&A conference call on our 2021 annual results, which we released this morning. Besides our press release, a video statement by the management board has been published on our website, mm.group. Please have a look at it if you couldn't do so far. In this call, we want to provide you now with the possibility to direct questions on today's communication to Peter Oswald, our CEO, and Franz Hiesinger, our CFO. Since this call addresses an international audience, we would very much appreciate your questions to be asked in English. Before we go for that, Peter Oswald will give you a brief summary of our key messages.
Peter, may I ask you to start with your summary?
Thank you, Stephan. A warm welcome to everyone to this conference call about our results 2021. We've seen a significant increase in sales and profit thanks to our acquisition of Kwidzyn and Kotkamills. As a consequence of that, we will propose to increase the dividend to EUR 3.5 per share after EUR 3.2 per share last year. We see a very strong demand across the board, so both for board and paper and virtually in all packaging segments. We are continuously fighting strong cost inflation, which we can pass on, but sometimes with a delay. Strategically, we are very pleased with our acquisitions, Kwidzyn and Kotkamills.
The integration is on track, and in terms of synergies, I think we are sure by now that we will exceed our original plans. The orientation of our group towards a sustainable long-term growth strategy has proven successful, and we want to pursue it further. Very important also, ESG and sustainability, which is in our DNA. We've made a good progress on a number of topics. Our reporting will be much better, as you will see in our annual report. We've really a strong focus on it, especially with regards to plastic waste avoidance. Before I hand over for questions, a few remarks on Ukraine. Our overall exposure to Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine in terms of EBITDA is 7%, so it is rather important.
We have stopped cartonboard deliveries last week to Russia. In terms of the operations, our two plants in Russia are producing. We cannot foresee really over the next weeks and months how this will develop because it's a question, do we get the input material, cartonboard, inks, et cetera? This is unclear. With one plant in Ukraine, which we have stopped because that was the order in Ukraine when the war broke out on the 24th of February. We have started up the infrastructure and plan to have production by today or tomorrow. However, it's very unclear if logistics will work out.
Obviously, some of our local customers are in war zones and we cannot deliver anymore to them, and we will reorient most of the production to be delivered to Western Europe. It's a real tragedy, and it's quite unclear at the moment what will happen. I think with this introduction, Franz Hiesinger, our CFO, and myself are looking forward to your questions. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin our question and answer session. If you have a question for our speakers, please dial zero and one on your telephone keypad now to enter the queue. Once your name has been announced, you can ask a question. If your question is answered before it is your turn to speak, you can dial zero and two to cancel your question. If you are using speaker equipment today, please lift the handset before making your selection. One moment please for the first question. The first question is from Matthias Pfeifenberger, Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, gents. Three questions from my side, please. Firstly, I think in terms of what we've seen from others, like Mondi and statements from the Russian administration, what if you have to stop operating because you're lacking, I don't know, spare parts or energy is becoming too high, you have to mothball or suspend production and t he risk of nationalization. Can you also remind us of the asset values at risk in Russia? Also maybe just to update us on absolute energy cost for the group, the energy mix, and then also some hedging or forward purchasing that you have engaged in. Lastly, the contract structures in packaging, but maybe also in cartonboard. How will you disrupt those? Will they go from semi-annual and annual to quarterly? Is that the plan? Thanks a lot.
Thank you very much. With regards to logistics, Russia is a big importer of cartonboard, so they only produce a limited amount themselves. The question will be here whether cartonboard can be delivered from China. That's the big question. My gut feeling is that, who knows if this prediction is right, that in two to three weeks, we have to reduce our production substantially because we will not have enough cartonboard, and problems with some other materials. I would expect that we can continue to produce just with a reduced capacity. Obviously it's so complex in terms of logistics and also some other material.
Let's say if the machine breaks down, we probably not get the spare parts. That's a risk. You see on nationalization. I mean, your guess is as good as my guess. We simply don't know what was done. There could be because we have stopped to deliver cartonboard to the country. We've clearly shown that we on which side of the fence we are. Equally, we continue producing because our products go to food, to pharma and we would immediately even if we ordered it to be stopped, I think it would be continued. We have no insight if there will be a nationalization or not.
In terms of our assets, it's all our assets in Russia and Ukraine are below EUR 100 million. A second question in terms of hedging. We have some more hedge, obviously, with energy. We do not want, for competition reasons, to give an exact number because otherwise others could exactly determine what prices could help us or could work for us. On contract structures, if we differentiate here between board and paper on the one hand side, and packaging on the other hand side. In that with regards to coated recycled boards or coated WLC, we continue with quarterly contracts. Our customers need some visibility on it, and I think that works.
With FBB, some players in the market have a lot of one-year contracts. We've basically cut them down to a single-digit percentage of our overall sales. Typically we have here quarterly or half-yearly contract, but also with clauses to add energy surcharges, if necessary also in this period. In packaging, we do have a number of three-year contracts, and they are partly already negotiated, or they will anyhow run out. The improvements we have to make is that, first of all costs are included and not just cartonboard costs, because also energy, ink, chemicals, et cetera, are important in the converting process. Secondly, the adjustments have to be maximum every quarter and not any longer periods. In this way, we get more flexibility.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question is from Markus Remis, RBI. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Can I maybe start first with the pricing side in cartonboard? You said that as of Q1 price increases have been implemented, like another one for the second quarter already. I'd be interested to get a sense about the magnitude. Related to that, maybe you can also remind us of the price hikes you've implemented in the last year and kind of how much growth will purely come from the pricing side, kind of the spillover of 2021 plus the new price increases of 2022.
We've increased prices last year, anywhere between EUR 200-EUR 300 , based on a price basis of between EUR 550-EUR 800 . It was fairly significant. This is not improving our profits because the cost increases have been very substantial, more or less everywhere, whether it's pulpwood, energy, paper for recycling, you name it. Now we have had an increase in the first quarter of around order of magnitude also EUR 100-EUR 150 . In the next quarter, it will be more.
It's a bit difficult to generalize because it depends on the product structure, with, in some cases, price increases and then with energy surcharges. The energy surcharges are sometimes very transparent towards our customers, with the clear link, especially to the gas price, where we say, if the gas price is so high, then we have so much surcharge. It's a bit difficult to say exactly how high the price increase also will be, because we would like, say, for the second quarter, that's your price increase for various stuff from transport to chemicals, et cetera. There is another energy surcharge, which is monthly adapted to where the gas price is. That makes it a bit complex.
You're absolutely right that there is a strong price inflation, which in the average, I'm now looking to our CFO, is currently about 240%, something in that range.
Okay, thank you. That's very helpful. On the energy cost, following on Matthias' question, if you could help us, maybe give us an idea of the total value of your energy purchases in the last year so that we have some sort of base to start from.
Last year, on a restated basis, if we assume, because that's more useful, I think, for you, that Kotkamills and Kwidzyn had been in the group for the total year. On a like-for-like basis, it's about a quarter of a billion EUR.
A quarter of a billion. Okay.
Yeah.
Okay.
In round terms, EUR 250 million.
Yeah. Okay. Thank you very much. Can you break that down into natural gas and electricity as well?
Yeah. I mean, I don't want to break it down in details, but the biggest chunk is gas and but also electricity and also coal, you know, for our Kwidzyn mill are the important factors.
All right.
We shouldn't forget that we produce our own energy with our recovery boilers, and that's obviously not included also in the energy cost.
Yeah.
That would be even higher. With biomass is also a substantial part, but it's not included because we use it from our own forest residues.
Okay. Coming to Kotkamills. You stated that basically you're happy with the synergy and that you will exceed the original plans. I mean, is that to a significant extent? I recall, if I'm not mistaken, it was about 3% of the cost base you intended to take out. Is the synergies or the more upbeat wording mostly related to cost synergies or is it, you know, also top-line synergies?
No, we're only talking about cost synergies. We have taken out basically the distribution network of Kotkamills and Kwidzyn. In terms of Kotkamills worked a lot with agents, and we've replaced them with our own sales force. Obviously, given our size, so to say, we don't need a proportional increase of our sales force. A lot is in procurement, which is obviously these days very tainted because you have no real basis to calculate it from. But it's also internal deliveries, fixed costs, taking out fixed costs, et cetera. We will achieve. I mean, we never gave a precise figure. We only said it's for Kwidzyn a double-digit mid-teens number.
Let's call it EUR 15 million, and Kotkamills was planned around EUR 10 million. EUR 25 million, and we will in year three run rate obviously linked also to one-off costs and some CapEx. We are confident to achieve this year between EUR 15 million and EUR 20 million run rate. However, offset to a certain extent with one-off costs and also some CapEx. For instance, going back again to our agents, you have to pay several years' fee to terminate an agent, which were mostly done last year. Also this year, we have some one-off costs, redundancy costs or changing costs for computer systems, et cetera.
All right. Okay. That's quite a preview to my next question. Any further restructuring of your industrial footprint plant, anything, of significance?
It's difficult to say. I mean, at the moment, markets are very strong. Equally, we do have some underperforming plans, and it's not foreseen for the first half years, but I wouldn't want to make any commitment for the second half.
Okay.
I mean, we are just constantly looking at our footprint and want to get bigger sized, more competitive plants. This may require restructuring, but not in the first half year.
All right. Okay. Last question from us would be on the sourcing from the war regions or Ukraine or Russia. Any dependence on, certain supplier, any sourcing apart from the whole energy topic?
Yeah. We have stocks from Ukraine, and we have to replace it, and we will replace it. It will come at a certain cost.
Yeah. Okay. Thanks. That's it from my side.
Thank you.
The next question is from Michael Marschallinger. Erste Group , your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I would do them one by one, but first, going back again to this Russia and Ukraine situation. Could you give us a top-line number in sales exposure you have in these countries? You said in two to three weeks you have to reduce production substantially if it's ongoing situation. So do you also see, then, in this moment, there are already some situations where you have to adjust the goodwill or the asset base there? Or how long can the situation with you go on until you have to adjust here?
Yeah. I think that's a bit too early. We are obviously in close contact with our auditors on this subject. For the time being, we have running plans. It was a bit too strong. I didn't say we have to substantially reduce in two, three weeks. I think the downside risk is that we have to adjust it substantially. At this point in time, it could well be that the material is organized. We simply don't know it. As you know, any write-off or so. First of all, we will be always on the conservative side. In question, if there is doubt, we write it down.
It's simply too soon to assume that whether it's so to say permanently unprofitable or even nationalized or something. We will give obviously for the first quarter, but especially after. I think we won't be so much smarter in the first quarter. After the first quarter, I think for the half year results, we will look very seriously into how the war and the sanctions and everything has developed. We will have learned by then whether our production reduced by 50%, by 100% or by 20%. With very conservative value, we said all the assets there, including Ukraine, are below EUR 100 million. We will take them into our books as required.
In terms of sales, our sales, it's a bit difficult. One has to differentiate between the sales which we are generating in the country. There we are in order of magnitude of EUR 150 million. I'm always talking about Russia and Ukraine, but by far the biggest part is Russia. We have or we had sales, I have to say from today's point of view of cartonboard. That was very substantial. This is reduced to zero for the time being, but we could place it in other markets already. For the time being, that's not a problem.
Then we also sell some packaging products to Russia, which we think we will lose, but again, we will look for other markets. There will be a negative effect. If it's more substantial or less, it's very difficult to predict.
Mm-hmm. Okay. Understood. Second question, were there any integration costs from companies including the fourth quarter? Can you remind us what was the amount of integration for the financial year 2021?
Yeah. I hand over to Franz Hiesinger now.
Integration costs depends what you comprise under that, but was about EUR 25 million, including inventory valuation at the acquired plants.
In the fourth-
This is what we've identified also in our report as, so to say, extraordinary. Of course, we also had operational extraordinary costs, like terminating our agency agreement, which we do not show. This is under normal operating items. It is only what is in this number are the taxes, transaction taxes, which were very substantial, especially in Poland, the lawyers, et cetera, investment banker, lawyers, et cetera, plus the purchase price allocation.
No, the purchase price allocation.
Yeah. Purchase price allocation effects, but not the long-term ones. That we have to write off our customer base, for instance, is not included under extraordinary, because it will be there for the next 10 years. But the costs of the order book and the inventory, which is really a short-term one of a couple of months, that's included in the number which Franz Hiesinger mentioned of EUR 25 million. The other costs that we are under normal expenses.
Mm-hmm. Okay. One last question. After the Kwidzyn acquisition, you gave a pro forma EBITDA number of EUR 550 for the group. How should we think in the current environment with cost inflation on the one hand side, on the other hand, you said synergies are exceeding expectations. What should we think about that number in the current environment?
Yeah. It's a difficult question. The issue is that at the moment, everything we do with regards to fixed cost reduction, so to say, it's peanuts in the overall scheme of things, because if gas prices go up by,
Mm-hmm.
By EUR 50, EUR 100 in a day, it's like a multiple of our cost savings over the year. We do not exactly know in this, I would say, race between cost increases and our pass on of the costs, what will be bigger, so to say, because we increase, like for a quarter, the costs, and then we are either surprised because if you could tell me where the gas price is in the third quarter and the electricity costs, et cetera, then we could say if our costs, our price increases were higher, lower, or exactly on at the same amount. You are right that the pro forma EBITDA would be around close to EUR 550, so to say, on a pre-acquisition basis.
We always highlighted that in Poland we have, so to say, there were some energy subsidies and so which were running out. It was always clear that we have a headwind, a strong headwind, which we have to overcome with, amongst others also CapEx, which will take some time. Whereas the improvements, so to say, or the run rate in Finland is, so to say, something to be quicker improved.
Mm-hmm. Okay. Thanks for answering my questions.
Thank you.
The next question is from [audio distortion] . Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hello, good morning, everybody. We've seen a production stop in one of your paper mills in Bruck right now. Do you have any scenarios like this for any of your plants outside of Russia and Ukraine? Are there any scenarios you could stop the production?
First of all, I'm very disappointed you are not asking about sustainability and ESG, but I hope you have another question on this. I understand this is a very hot topic now. If you say any scenario, of course, any scenario could happen, like there is no gas anymore. Under normal circumstances, so to say, with 90% probability, we would not stop any of our cartonboard mills, simply because we are partially hedged, and we can pass on the price, and we are overall competitive.
I think what we will see in this crisis is that those mills which are very marginal, making hardly any profit in normal times, and which have a less developed energy system, let's call it this way, and maybe also are not hedged, they might have to close for a certain period of time. Whereas stronger mills which are generally profitable, who have a good energy system, like for instance our mill in Frohnleiten. I think a lot of other industry players had to shut before we've to shut. Let's put it this way. I think it, from today's point of view, it's highly unlikely.
Okay. Perhaps it's at the moment, not really a live question, but is it a good time for looking for other competitors you can buy perhaps in one or two years?
I mean, first of all, we've said it very clearly in Board and Paper, the absolute focus has to be on the integration of the plants and the realization and hopefully overachievement on our synergies. Generally, we would not consider any acquisition on Board and Paper also given the adverse of the fluctuating volatile markets, but one should never exclude something if a good asset became available at a very reasonable price. However, we will look maybe more on the converting side, but so for Packaging, that's a more attractive area. Their acquisitions are also typically much smaller. If there are opportunities in this crisis, I think we will look very thoroughly at it.
Mm-hmm. Your plants at the moment, they are all going under full capacity?
All our plants are under full capacity.
Yeah.
Our biggest fear at the moment that we have due to COVID. One or the other, there's constantly one plant every week which is at the borderline to be temporarily shut down because of too many people in quarantine. It hasn't happened, but that's a constant risk we are facing. We are fighting with all sorts of supply chains, so we don't get enough transport. We do not get whatever, enough wood. We do not get chemicals. We have constant issues to keep our production.
So far, knocking on wood, it has worked very well, but it cannot be excluded over the next weeks that we had short-term to stop something simply because I don't know a repair team doesn't come on time or a special material we run out of it, of even an auxiliary chemical product or whatever.
Mm-hmm. Of course, the sustainability topic, do you get pushes from the market at the moment? Do you see really perhaps in the food industry that they change their way of packaging and they move to Mayr-Melnhof?
Yes, we see this trend. However, it's at the moment not very strong simply because we are sold out. Some customers, the big multinationals for whom we provide ice cream. We have the bio coating for ice cream they want to change. We do supply them, but we simply don't have the volume for them to make a bigger change. We simply have to wait until things calm down. We're also busy working on some capacity increases both on the packaging side as well as on the board and paper side with our investments. Up until these capacities come up, we simply can't supply them enough. Yes, there is continuous interest.
Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. Are you happy with the high oil prices, and the plastic will become more expensive?
The issue is, in theory, I would be happy about high oil prices because of plastics becoming more, but then also gas prices are higher, and this means that we have to pay more. It's a double-edged sword. Overall, I like continuity, the best would be if we had whatever an oil price of EUR 70-EUR 80 being fairly constant instead of going up and down every day.
Mm-hmm. Okay, thank you.
Thank you.
Before we go to the next question, just a brief reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press 0 and 1 on your telephone keypad now. We do have a follow-up from Markus Remis of Raiffeisen Bank International. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks. Two short follow-ups, please. Firstly, regarding the expansion plans for your capacities, if you could give an indication how much you would spend in the next two years. I'd be interested specifically in the packaging division, but how much you will expand your production footprint, so in kind of tonnage terms, and how that also kind of develops over the course of the next two years.
Yes. I mean, it's a bit difficult to generally answer it. Let's say as a rough figure, we will expand our capacity by around, let's call it 10%, really as ballpark number, over the next two and a half years, so until end of 2024.
All right. Okay.
We have also some debottlenecking, just to say our growth.
Yeah.
It could be a bit higher because we do, of course, also some smaller debottlenecking in various plants which are not included in our overall. The bigger projects will add about 10% in very rough terms. The reason is a bit difficult because you have, like in pharma, it's very low tonnage but high value. Then you have other products in food which are higher in tonnage, but so is it tonnage? Is it euros? Is it square meter printed? It's all a bit different, but 10% is a good number I think.
Right. Okay. We haven't talked about recovered paper. I mean, there has been a bit of a glut in recent months from already elevated levels. Or if you could share your thoughts on the general supply situation and then of course, I mean, transportation costs are shooting up. To what extent that is going to kind of add further to the current price levels we're going to see?
Yeah, I mean, what we're seeing in recovered paper is that every quarter experts said will now be the peak and now it will go down, and that hasn't happened. They have marginally increased, even now in the first quarter. Let's say they are constantly flat on a historically high level of, for let's call it EUR 200, it depends on the grade. You're absolutely right, one of the input factors. We always calculate the costs delivered to our mill. One of the effects is that, as transport costs go up, even if recovered paper costs go somewhat down at where they originate, delivered to the mill gate, they might go up because of transport costs.
We expect them to stay at an elevated level for some time. The reason is simply that there is less and less graphic paper which is from virgin fiber and can be recycled then several times. Therefore, I think supply will be stretched and tough.
Okay. Very clear. A final question, please, on coming back to energy again. If you could kind of just outline the general, kind of forward buying strategy, how that is, kind of, shaping up. What are your, kind of, key parameters here? Is it on a rolling forward basis? Is there also any opportunistic element to it?
Yeah. I think we generally try to hedge and not to be too smart to speculate whether things stay there. In regular intervals, we hedge. Obviously, we play the market to get days where they are cheaper. Equally, we believe in longer term elevated prices, generally speaking, even though there will be some pullback also to certain points in time. It's at the moment very difficult to make forward contracts because prices are very high and one is unsure whether one should lock in, and we will just hedge our bets. We'll stay completely out of the market, but we also don't see prices where we say, now is the great time to fully hedge 2023 or something like that.
We'll also have to be careful on you. You never can exactly predict the output of the mill, so you cannot get 100% hedged.
Yeah. Can you kind of indicate how much of your volumes are secured already for this year and for next year? Just a rough indication.
As I said, we don't want for competition reasons because if prices sharply go up. I would be extremely interested what our competitors are doing because then I could calculate back what prices we could offer. Exactly for this reason, it's competitive. It's from a competition law perspective, we cannot share it, and it wouldn't help you because it makes a huge difference have we hedged six months ago or have we hedged yesterday.
All right. Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
The next question is from Cole Hathorn, Jefferies. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Morning, Peter. Thanks very much for taking my question. I'd just like to understand how folding boxboard market dynamics are gonna look in 2022. I mean, you've done very well consolidating the market, and I think you improved the mix of Mayr-Melnhof becoming more virgin. But can you talk about the exports that go into Russia and how the European market can kind of balance that folding boxboard? And maybe a little bit of color why folding boxboard has been so strong in 2021, and how you see that into 2022, because I don't believe that the imports from Asia are gonna be coming back anytime. That's the first question.
Yeah. Yeah. Thank you, Cole. First of all, Folding Boxboard has increased less, and also CRB less than, for instance, liner. So we are in a more stable market, and the reason simply that our products are qualified with individual customers, so they cannot change so quickly. So it's difficult to say where we are going and if there will be a recession or anything. But overall, history has shown that our product is very resilient because it's really food, pharma, tobacco. Beauty actually is the most volatile of all segments, but it's a fairly small segment. So also people spend a certain amount if there's a recession, more time at home, which is positive for cartonboard demand instead of dining out.
We believe that demand will stay very strong. You're absolutely right. All big players in FBB, in CRB, we were more or less the only exporter, I think, to Russia or the only major exporter to Russia with no problems to repatriate it. In FBB, we are taking out of Russia and selling to Europe now at a much higher volume. The same happens with our two big competitors in the Nordics. So far, we haven't seen any negative effect. Let's say, I'm very worried, especially with regards to some capacity expansions which far exceed any growth which is possible. We are in FBB. It's a market of EUR 2.4 million in the European Economic Area.
First now we have to bring in EUR 400 million also delivered to Russia, EUR 400 million, EUR 500 million will go into this region, which would mean that there needs to be a growth of 15% to absorb that. Exports to The U.S. are strong. On the one hand, you have the favorable exchange rate situation right now, but equally, The U.S. has now a big leg up in energy costs especially. Will these exports be as easy? If I then hear that both of them plan a big expansion of their capacity, that is something to worry about.
One can only hope that at least one decision which is not yet taken will not be taken, because then we have much too much volume in Europe. On top of that, now without elaborating that too much, we've seen huge capacities in China coming on stream, and will come on stream. So we talk about 5 million tons, more than 5 million tons new. That's twice the total capacity of Europe, and they will export. As the European industry is exporting to Africa, Asia, et cetera, there will be a lot of competition. So short- term, I don't see any problem. Demand will be strong. I think if someone destroys the industry, then it's ourselves.
Peter, then I suppose following up on that, on your expansion plans, would you mind just giving a little bit more color of what's entailed there? I know, you know, expansion is probably a really good deployment of capital 'cause it's higher return. But if we think about your Poland facility, you know, the recovery boiler coal potentially going to biomass, how are you thinking about that to improve the environmental footprint of that mill and the expansion? Would you mind giving us some detail of when you expect to have the greater boxboard capacity out of your either Kotkamills and your Poland plant, just to understand the timeline of when that phases out. Thank you.
Yes. In Kotkamills, we are gradually debottlenecking to increase our volume from 300,000 to close to 400,000. That we have now the period of two years. But that's so to say, existing capacity, which we just by debottlenecking need to build because we lack at the moment second packaging line and things like that. Increasingly, we currently have no expansion plans with the boxboard, exactly for the reason that I fear overcapacity in this industry. There it's more about we've successfully now transformed the one machine, the PM3 now fully and up and running, producing kraft paper for medical segment, generally flexible packaging segment. That was very successful.
We have to think about the two other mills over time. Given the current circumstances and uncertainties, we are so to say for the time being delaying any big expansion projects. What we will do, however, is investments in biofuel boiler in order to get to green energy; that we will do without any delay. A bigger expansion is at the moment, so to say, we first have to wait and see how the situation works out. Again, on FBB, I'm worried about overcapacity, and therefore we will not put in new capacity. We will just fill our existing ones.
Perfect. Peter, thanks for the color. Just one last question on, you know, your office paper and your kraft paper business. How does the Russia dynamics impact that? Because I see you've got Sylvamo, for example. They've stopped one of their mills on kind of the border to Finland. Office paper is a really tight market at the moment. So just wondering how you're benefiting from that near term and as well as in kraft paper. Stora Enso, you know, mostly sack kraft are probably not competing with you, but they're probably gonna be out of the market for Europe for a little bit. So just wondering if that business that you've acquired, actually your end products are better placed than what you thought six months ago. Thank you.
Yeah. Yes. I think you gave the answer. We have a surprisingly tight market in office paper. What the longer term solution is a different issue. Short-t erm, it's so tight, and as you said, Sylvamo is out. Others are out. I don't want to name them because they can't afford the energy costs. It's an extremely tight market, and that must be used to restore the market, which is very difficult in this industry because everyone has become so used to low margins that it's like a pandemic to fight. We will increase our prices to get a normal to a normal margin.
Thank you.
The next question is from Cameron [audio distortion], Acamo Capital. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Thanks for the call. I think most of my questions have already been answered. I was wondering if you could elaborate a bit more on the potential drivers of the recycled paper price in the next months to understand supply and demand dynamics.
Yeah. I'm not sure it's about the next month, so I see it more structurally long-term. Factor number one is the fact that there's more and more tissue and less and less paper and writing paper leads per se to a shortage of recycled fiber because tissue is not recycled and graphic paper is recycled. The second trend is there is a move from B2B to B2C, so more and more boxes are not delivered to the Tesco et cetera of this world, where they are properly more or less 100% recovered, but more to B2C, where the recovery rate is just lower because some of it ends in the general waste bin.
We see a somewhat higher demand, I think, from Asia, where more and more of these recycling partners are built, so outside of China in order to supply China. They will lead maybe to an increase in exports again. After this demand shock from China, we might see now actually a returning to a more normal world where there's more export. For all these reasons, I would be very cautious to predict any reduction of paper for recycling. Short-term, there can always be all of a sudden some ad hoc moves, but it will be, I think, a limited supply for years to come and actually getting worse.
All right. Thanks. In terms of cartonboard, you know, of cartonboard mills, could I ask you, hypothetically, if you were not hedged, what gas price, what energy, what rise in energy prices could have made you stop production in some of your mills? Considering all the price increases you've already applied. If it were not a matter of hedging, could you say, "Okay, at this level, it could have become uneconomical," or sort of a
Yeah. I can't really answer it because we would do it in agreement with our customers. You see, it's at the end of the day, if let's say the gas price moves to what should I say now as an example EUR 400 or EUR 500, we've seen some forward rates at this level, then most likely it becomes unprofitable and then we would simply speak to our customers because it isn't then a problem of MM versus other competitors, but it would be more or less as bad for everyone in the industry.
Either our customers is I accept a certain price surcharge for a limited period of time in a completely transparent way, or they say, "No, it's too expensive. Our customers won't pay for it." You shouldn't forget some of it is pharma, et cetera, so basically you can pass on any price. To a certain degree that sounds stupid, but that's what it is. The question is then just what is the difference between various mills? If you have a mill which has a worse mix, then you might be in trouble. That's actually the reason to stop it. It's not because of a high price, but because of the high price plus your strong exposure to it.
All right. No, thanks.
Thank you.
We haven't received any further questions at this point. I hand back to the speakers.
Again, thank you very much. Thank you for taking the time to stay with us. I think we are in extremely challenging times, where basically one is used every morning to wake up and has to review what the plan of yesterday was, because of all the situation. Equally, I think that the advantage of MM is that we are in food, pharma, tobacco, which are extremely stable markets that with overall very competitive mills, that was exactly our strategic transformation, which we had last year. There are short-term all sorts of problems of getting something, not getting something, so one never knows even what next week's results will be.
The structural forces, I think we are in a very strong position. It's very helpful that we are forward integrated into packaging. Packaging is extremely stable. That we are also more flexible to react to different circumstances. Our strong balance sheets are very conservative and long-term financing. Our business model, I think we feel comfortable that whatever this crisis may bring, we are in a strong position to survive and to thrive. With this, Stephan, do you want to add anything?
I just wanted to add that we will release our Q1 results on the 26 of April. We will be back with more, I would say update, or the next update in this year. For the rest of this day, we wish you all the best, and thank you for your interest. Thank you for participating in our call.
Thank you. Have a good day. Bye.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attendance. This call has been concluded. You may disconnect.