Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the conference call on third quarter 2024 results of VERBUND again. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. You can register for questions at any time and press star one on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star zero. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Peter Kollmann, CFO. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Let me welcome you to the presentation of VERBUND for the first three quarters 2024. Let me thank you for joining today's conference call. Before we move into the analysis of our business development, let me make a few general comments. The past quarter was characterized by exceptional weather conditions, which once again impressively demonstrated the impact of climate change. Parts of Austria experienced localized flooding in September. At the same time, we experienced a hot and dry summer intensified by the exceptionally warm Adriatic Sea, which led to severe storms and extreme weather phenomena. These developments make it clear: climate change is happening, and it affects us all. In order to address this, VERBUND is pursuing its VERBUND Strategy 2030.
With this strategy, we're not only sending a clear signal for climate protection, but are also making a significant contribution to the security of supply in Austria. We are investing in the further expansion of Austrian hydropower generation, primarily in flexible storage power plants, in order to be able to compensate for the increased volatility in the electricity markets. We are also investing in the expansion of the Austrian high voltage grid in order to integrate the increasing renewable electricity generation into the Austrian and European electricity system. And we are investing in the expansion of new renewable electricity generation from wind and PV in our defined target markets. Investments in large battery storage concepts to stabilize electricity supply and our hydrogen initiatives should make a significant contribution to decarbonizing our energy system. Now let's move on to the details of the first three quarters of 2024.
At the beginning, let me highlight and summarize the most important influencing factors for the results development. After the extreme price fluctuations in 2022 and 2023 due to the war in Ukraine and Russia, wholesale prices for electricity have gradually fallen again, but are still significantly higher than before the outbreak of the war. Following the development of wholesale prices and based on our hedging strategy, the average achieved contract price strongly decreased by EUR 62.2 per MWh to EUR 113.8 in the first three quarters 2024. That is a significant decrease, which we have never seen historically within such a short period. The hydro coefficient determining the generation from our run-of-river hydropower plants was far better than last year and above the long-term average. It was 1.07 versus 0.93.
The generation from wind and PV was also up, mainly driven by new assets, which we acquired in Spain and Germany, as well as in Austria. Thermal generation also increased compared to last year. Contributions from new renewable segments were lower due to lower achieved prices, despite slightly higher production volumes. Our contributions from the sales segment improved strongly due to lower procurement costs as a result of the decline in wholesale power prices. The grid segment contributions declined due to lower contributions from Austrian Power Grid, as well as from Gas Connect Austria. Finally, we had lower contributions from flexibility products. Now, the impact of these influencing factors on the key figures of VERBUND in the first three quarters is as follows: EBITDA decreased by 26% to EUR 2.625 billion, and the reported group result decreased by 30% to EUR 1.387 billion.
The adjusted group result decreased by 25.7% to EUR 1.485 billion. The operating cash flow also decreased to a level of EUR 2.332 billion. The free cash flow after dividends was negative at a level of minus EUR 392 million. Net debt increased by 34.8% to a level of just below EUR 2.4 billion. Because of a better-than-expected business development in the first three quarters, we increased our guidance for the full year 2024. Based on average hydro, wind, and PV generation in the fourth quarter 2024, VERBUND expects a reported and adjusted EBITDA between approximately EUR 3.2 billion and EUR 3.4 billion, and a reported group result between approximately EUR 1.7 billion and EUR 1.8 billion for 2024. The payout ratio will be between 45% and 55% of the adjusted group result between approximately EUR 1.8 billion and EUR 1.9 billion. Now, on the next page, you see the chart with our hedging volumes.
Let me go into more details on that, and let me start with both hedging volumes and hedging prices. As you know, one Euro ± of higher or lower average achieved prices has a sensitivity of approximately ± 25 million EUR in the EBITDA line. You see the strong sensitivity of our business model to power price fluctuations. The development of our average sales price is influenced by the Ukraine-Russian war, and it's a factor of the gas prices and is a consequence of causing the wholesale price for electricity. After having achieved an average price of approximately EUR 55 in 2021, average sales prices skyrocketed in 2022 and 2023 to a level of EUR 115 , so more than double of 2021, EUR 115 in 2022, and EUR 167 in 2023 on the back of rapidly increasing gas prices and enormous market uncertainty.
Now, price levels are normalizing, which is reflected in our future sales prices. However, be aware, price levels are still substantially higher compared to the price levels before the outbreak of the war. Now, let me go into mark-to-market for 2024, 2025, and 2026. In 2024, as you see on the chart, we have a mark-to-market price of EUR 116.2 with a hedging level of already 96%. For 2025, we have a mark-to-market of EUR 106.5 with a hedging level of 59%. And for 2026, we have a mark-to-market price of EUR 80.8 with a hedging level of 37%. Now, on the next page, we discuss the hydro segment.
At 1.07, the hydro coefficient, which, as you know, is an index quantifying the hydropower generation of the run-of-river power plants, was seven percentage points above the long-term average, and this is a significant 14% above the level of the first three quarters of 2023. The positive effect from the higher hydro levels on our EBITDA as of the end of Q3 was approximately EUR 70 million. Let me add that the latest developments in the water supply in October show the continuing positive trend. In October, the hydro coefficient was at very high 1.43%, and therefore 43 percentage points higher than the long-term average. For today, the hydro coefficient is 1.10. The production from annual storage power plants increased by 1% on production from hydropower, therefore overall increased by 2,961 GWh, so 12.8% to 26,000 GWh compared to the first three quarters 2023.
Lower average achieved prices, as I explained before, are the main reason for the decrease in EBITDA. In addition, lower flexibility products, especially the products for congestion management, but also for controlled energy, had a negative effect. In total, EBITDA in the hydro segment decreased by 26.9% to EUR 2.276 billion. Our strategic focus in the hydropower segment is to increase efficiency in existing hydropower plants and to increase flexible generation capacities in order to cope with the increasing volatility in the grid system from the renewables build-out. The CapEx reflects our strategic focus. Our main hydro projects under construction are the 480 MW Limberg 3 pumped storage power plant project and the 45 MW Reißeck II+ pumped storage power plant project, as well as the 14.3 MW Stegenwald run-of-river power plant project. The relatively small run-of-river project one started operating beginning in October 2024.
Now, let me come to the new renewable segment. The new renewables coefficient, here it is an index quantifying the generation from wind power and PV, has decreased and amounted to 0.92 in the first three quarters 2024 compared to 1.04 in the same period last year. Generation from wind power, however, increased by 54.2% or 465 GWh and amounted to 1,323 GWh in the first three quarters 2024. The reason for the strong increase in generation is the start of operation of new assets in Austria, Germany, and Spain. Generation from PV increased as well and amounted to 360 GWh, so 25.4% plus in the reporting period, stemming from PV installations in Austria and in Spain. The increase in generation volumes in the new renewable segment has not led to an increase in EBITDA, which decreased by 21.7% to a level of EUR 123.4 million.
Now, what is the reason for that? The lower EBITDA is a result of lower achieved power prices, particularly impacting our unhedged generation volumes, which is approximately 25% across the total renewables portfolio. Our strategic focus in the new renewables segment is to increase our renewables generation to 25% of our total generation by 2030. In order to reach that target, we are constantly developing our asset portfolio. Now, let me move on to the sales segment. In the first three quarters 2024, the EBITDA contribution in the sales segment overall is still slightly negative, but it has improved strongly to a value of -EUR 1 million. Last year, it was -EUR 164.6 million. This improvement in EBITDA was mainly due to lower power prices, i.e., lower procurement costs for electricity and gas in the end customer business.
This positive effect was, however, partially offset, and particularly by negative valuation effect for energy derivatives in connection with future energy suppliers. In detail, the EBITDA contribution from the retail business is a negative -EUR 76 million. The contribution from the trading business is a positive +EUR 75 million, including a negative valuation effect from energy derivatives of -EUR 70 million. Now, what is our focus in the sales segment? We obviously want to increase profitability in the retail business by various measures like an optimized hedging strategy, cost-cutting measures, and an improvement in the service business, and want to be back in positive territory again in 2025.
We want to constantly optimize the sale of our own generation volumes with our portfolio and trading capabilities by, among other measures, strengthening the storage business in order to be able to offer a constant 24/7 renewable electricity supply, which is gaining importance. The next segment is the grid segment. The EBITDA contribution from the grid segment overall declined by approximately EUR 156 million- EUR 257 million. The EBITDA contribution from the electricity grid business, according to IFRS, fell by EUR 55 million to approximately EUR 186 million. Now, the reason for the decline are lower contributions from auctions and lower national grid revenues due to volume and tariff decreases. The regulatory account will increase again from EUR 494 million to EUR 542 million in 2024.
With regard to the result contribution of Gas Connect Austria, we report a strongly decreased EBITDA by approximately EUR 100 million to approximately EUR 70 million for the first three quarters of 2024. The main reason for the decrease are lower transmission revenues, particularly from the commodity tariff because of a tariff-related overcompensation in 2023, because at the time, as you might remember, gas prices were extremely high. The strategic focus on the high-voltage grid is to implement the ambitious grid development plan, which foresees investments of approximately EUR 9 billion over the next 10 years. The growth in CapEx will result in a constantly growing regulatory asset base and, as a consequence, in an increase in the regulated return, very steady increase in regulated returns.
With regard to the development of the regulatory account, we are aiming towards an accelerated decline in 2025 with a planned reduction of approximately 70 million EUR. Now, the strategic focus in the gas grid is to isolate Gas Connect Austria from any future volume risk, which is achieved by a change in the regulatory system to a pure cost-plus system starting from 2025, and to prepare for a future hydrogen transport system, which will be a result of a hopefully developing green hydrogen system in Europe. Now, with that, I will hand over to Andreas Wollein, who will discuss all other segments and the key financial figures. Please introduce yourself.
Yeah, thank you, Peter. So quick remark to all other segments.
So despite the fact that thermal generation grew by about 120 GWh to 500 GWh, the EBITDA contribution decreased to a level of approximately EUR 17 million, mainly because of a negative valuation effect from energy derivatives in connection with future energy deliveries. The contribution from flexibility products in this segment decreased by EUR 13 million. Okay. So I continue. Okay. So I continue. I'm not sure how much you heard. I heard that the line was broken. So let me start again with all other segments. So I mentioned already that despite the fact that the thermal generation volumes grew to 500 GWh, EBITDA contribution decreased to a level of approximately EUR 17 million, mainly because of negative valuation effects.
The contribution from our equity consolidated participation in the provincial utility Kelag increased strongly from EUR 46.9 million to about EUR 80 million, mainly due to the improved water supply in the province. In addition, a higher trading result and an improved result in the end customer business contributed significantly to this increase. Finally, let me inform you that with regard to CCGT Mellach, we have to inform you that the power plant was not contracted from Austrian Power Grid for congestion management services. So as a consequence, the asset will be operated on a market-driven basis. The district heating power plant Mellach, on the other hand, was contracted by APG for this period. Now, moving on to slide 9 and slide 10, we go quickly into the development of the key financial figures. Because of the aforementioned developments, EBITDA decreased by 26% to EUR 2.625 billion.
Depreciation increased by 10% to EUR 427 million, mainly due to the acquisition of Spanish renewable generation assets and increased investments into the high-voltage grid. The financial result strongly improved from -EUR 18 million to +EUR 46 million. This development was attributable to higher earnings contributions from interest accounted for using the equity method, mainly Kelag. Higher interest income and lower interest expenses, mainly caused by the repayment of the so-called Schuldschein Darlehen in November 2023 in the amount of EUR 500 million, as well as lower interest expenses from money market transactions. Taxes on income decreased by 36.8% to an amount of EUR 480 million following the decline in results. The reported group result, therefore, decreased by 30% to EUR 1.387 billion. The group result after adjustment for non-recurring effects was down by about 25%.
Finally, I would like to mention the decrease in additions to tangible assets in total from about EUR 1 billion in Q1 to Q3 2023 to EUR 780 million in the respective period of 2024 due to a big acquisition in Spain in the third quarter 2023. On the bottom left, you will find the additions into tangible assets of Gas Connect Austria and APG, whereas on the bottom right, you will find the additions into tangible assets in the renewables business and others. Yeah, with regard to our cash flow situation and the gearing, for both operating cash flow in the third quarter strongly decreased to EUR 2.33 billion, mainly due to lower average achieved prices, as well as significantly lower inflows from margin payments for hedging transactions in the electricity business. In addition, higher income tax payments contributed negatively.
The significantly lower operating cash flow was also the main reason for the negative development of the free cash flow after dividends. Furthermore, dividend payments increased compared to the previous year. In Q1 to Q3 2024, we paid a total of EUR 2 billion in dividends to VERBUND and minority shareholders. The free cash flow after dividends, therefore, showed a decline from EUR 1.475 billion to a level of -EUR 392 million. Net debt increased from EUR 1.758 billion to EUR 2.37 billion at the end of September due to the negative free cash flow. Gearing, correspondingly increased to a level of 22.2% compared with 15.7% at the year-end 2023. So with that, let me hand over to Peter doing the last chart, which is the outlook.
Thank you, Andreas. Yeah, always at the end of our results presentation, our outlook, and always at this point, we want to highlight the sensitivities.
2024 as of the end of the third quarter, a deviation of plus minus 1% in the generation from hydropower has an impact of plus minus EUR 3 million. A deviation of plus minus 1% in the generation from wind power and PV has an impact of plus minus EUR 0.4 million, and a deviation of ±one Euro in the wholesale price has an impact of EUR 0.7 million in the group result for 2024. Now, based on the positive business development, we have increased our guidance range for the full year 2024, mainly because of better-than-expected results from the electricity grid, around EUR 30 million, and from flexibility products, there around EUR 45 million. Our increased guidance for 2024 is as follows.
We expect the reported and adjusted EBITDA of approximately between EUR 3.2 billion and EUR 3.4 billion, and a reported group result of approximately between EUR 1.7 billion and EUR 1.8 billion, under the assumption of average hydro, wind, and PV generation in the fourth quarter 2024, as well as, of course, the chances and the risk situation of the group. For the financial year 2024, we plan to pay out between 45% and 55% of the group result after adjustment for non-recurring effects of approximately between EUR 1.8 billion and EUR 1.9 billion. Now, with that, let's move on to our Q&A session.
We'll now begin the question and answer session. If anyone wishes to ask a question, may press star and one on the telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. If anyone has a question, may press star and one at this time.
The first question is from Wanda Serwinowska with UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi, Wanda Serwinowska, UBS. Two questions, and the one asked for me, as always. So the first question is on your solar development in Spain. If I look at the map in the presentation, solar is the key market for you to develop new renewables to reach this 25% renewables share in the generation mix. But when we look at the Spanish or Iberian renewables market, it's becoming more and more tricky. That can be used basically that the deployment of new renewables becomes a bit uncontrolled, and we have more and more hours with the negative power price or zero negative power price. So my question is, what makes you confident you can deliver in terms of work and what you can do in terms of the securing PPAs because the competition is pretty fierce there?
That's question number one. Question number two, on the Austrian elections that happened at the end of September, is there anything happening in Austria, or is there any focus from the politicians on the energy course or anything that may impact VERBUND that would be helpful? And Peter, the last ask, if you can disclose the latest hedging with our market, and what do you expect on the surplus and the regulatory account by the end of 2024? Because you raised the guidance for APG. That would be much, much appreciated. Thanks a lot.
Okay. Great, Wanda. Now, I will start with the last question on the up-to-date hedging levels per the 5th of November. We have hedged for 2024, 98% at a mark-to-market price of EUR 117. For 2025, we have hedged 60% at a mark-to-market price of EUR 107.
For 2026, we have hedged 37% at a mark-to-market price of EUR 81. The next question you had was on the elections. At this point in time, there is not a lot I can say apart from there are coalition negotiations among the parties at the moment, particularly between the Conservative Party and the Socialist Party. Media speculate that there is a high chance for a triple coalition, i.e., between the Conservatives, the Socialist Party, and a party called NEOS. The party which has gained the highest popular vote, which is the Freedom Party, is currently not part of the negotiations. At this point in time, no matter which constellation we are going to see, we don't expect any negative political decisions on the energy market at this point in time. Your first question is a perfectly rational one on solar development in Spain. You're right.
The market is indeed challenging. You called it more and more tricky. Yes, tricky because we have obviously a large build-out of renewables, particularly solar. At the same time, you mentioned negative prices. Yes, that is true as well. Low prices, zero negative prices, and the PPA market is very competitive. We have a relatively large pipeline of solar projects in Spain, slightly below 2,000 MW. Those 2,000 MW will be built, and the way we see it, the future of solar in Spain is in combination with other technologies. So that could be any kind of baseload, but it could also be storage. As you have probably seen, storage is getting more competitive. We also think that a number of Asian producers could come out with a new generation of batteries, which have a higher density and a lower price.
Now, if solar were combined with battery storage, that would be an opportunity to create not really synthetic baseload, but almost synthetic baseload. If you then combine it with wind and, for example, hydro, you should have a more stable production.
Then, Wanda, I think the last question was regarding the surplus of the regulatory account in APG. Yeah, so this year, I think there is another increase in the regulatory account. It's not a big one, but it is an increase. So we started 2024 with a negative of EUR 494 million. Now, the regulatory account will increase according to our latest planning to about EUR 540 million at the end of this year. For next year, we are pushing for, as Peter said, an accelerated, let's say, reduction in the regulatory account.
That's why we are currently assuming a net decrease next year of around EUR 70 million.
Thank you very much. Peter, just a quick follow-up. Do you have the hedging price without mark-to-market? Because I think you gave me the blended price. And the second one, when you talk about combined PPA, solar, wind, and batteries, when I look at your plans, you have 1.7 GW target 2030, but this is solar. You only have 400 MW in wind. You have no batteries, or this is not included in the current plan. You don't have any hydro. So should we expect more cooperation with other utilities or other players, or should there be more M&A in Spain?
Well, both is possible. No, all three are possible.
On the one hand, we obviously continue with our organic growth on the execution of the existing pipeline, which we have acquired a couple of years ago. That is number one. Number two would be that we are going to increase our CapEx in battery storage, and the cooperation with other utilities and/or electricity users through PPA or other arrangements is a possibility as well. And in terms of the more detail on the hedging levels, for 2024, I mentioned 98% is hedged. That would be hedged at 117. The 60% for 2025 that are already hedged are hedged at 119. And the 37%, which are hedged for 2026, are hedged at 79. And you're right, the prices which I gave you before are mark-to-market, i.e., blended prices.
Brilliant. Thanks a lot.
The next question is from John Campbell with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, everyone.
Thanks for taking my questions. First one, I wanted to ask you about gas prices, so specifically related to Ukraine. What I'm interested in is sort of what is your outlook for gas prices, particularly in the context of the recent U.S. presidential election, and do you see upside from gas flows from Ukraine? Second question relates to special dividend optionality. So you've got EUR 2.4 billion now of net debt relative to EBITDA that's sub one. What is your appetite, basically, or what's your latest appetite for the topic of special cash returns? And then I'd be interested also in any comments you can have on the sales segment. So I think you previously said you saw a loss of EUR 100 million. Your nine months is just minus one. So what should we sort of expect for the full year now in that specific segment? Thank you.
Sure. Yeah.
I'll divide up your questions. I will discuss gas prices with your special dividend. Andreas is going to cover the sales segment. Yeah. I think your question on gas prices is highly relevant for all the generators. You might remember that we have been discussing gas prices in previous conference calls, and you might also remember that I have been forecasting lower gas prices as a result of an oversupply coming to Europe starting in 2027. That oversupply is a fact because we already know about sort of the contractual agreements, particularly on the LNG side. We know the capacity of the regasification plants, etc., etc. Now, what could change with the elections? I think that is not just a speculation, but that is a relatively rational opinion that is developing in the market.
If we have more flows coming from Russia into Europe as a result of some sort of an arrangement between Ukraine and Russia, that would mean that we have even more supply coming into Europe that could already start earlier than the LNG supplies, which I have mentioned, and that in combination with higher supplies which have developed during the war coming from Norway and higher supplies coming from Northern Africa, of course from Nigeria, through Italy, all the way up to Europe, when you put all that together, there should be downward pressure on gas prices going forward.
Now, so if you assume that gas prices would normalize to levels which we have seen pre-war, and if CO2 prices don't go up from the current levels, I think today they're around 64, so let's just assume that they would stay somewhere between 60 and 70, even 60 and 80, you would also, as a consequence, see lower power prices. On your second question on the special dividend, we currently have no plans for a special dividend. And Andreas, maybe you could comment on the sales segment.
Yeah, the sales segment for the full year. So we currently expect for the retail business still a negative EBITDA contribution of around minus EUR 100 million. Then we expect for the trading business an EBITDA contribution of plus EUR 80 million, which results in a total minus of EUR 20 million.
But the trading business includes also a negative valuation effect of around -EUR 95 million. So these are the figures.
Thank you very much. That's very clear. One more, if I just could quickly. When I look at your full year guidance, right, you've upgraded the EBITDA 3.2 to 3.4 billion. Is that entire guidance range predicated on the concept of hydro being at one hydro coefficient? If I understood properly on the call, you said that October was at 1.43, and you said that the latest is 1.1. So is that entire range of guidance predicated on 1.0?
Yeah. It is the entire range of guidance. There are obviously positive effects, but also negative effects, which could be relevant until the rest of the year. As a result, the guidance which we have given encompasses all the influencing factors on the results until year-end.
Thank you. Very clear.
The next question is from Jeffery Olly with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Two questions. So one, just following up on that answer you just gave on the guidance. My understanding historically, whenever you've given updated guidance during the year, you do assume the hydro coefficient of one is the key for. So just to clarify that, what you've done in this case or not. And then with the extra October hydro bonanza you've had, I'm assuming that's probably like an extra terawatt hour, so maybe an extra 70 million EBITDA. So perhaps the midpoint, if you assumed a hydro coefficient of one for this guidance is not at the midpoint of 3.3, it's probably the upper end of the range. So your views on that would be great. And then the second question is on the sales segment.
So could you help us think about how that can evolve over the next couple of years in the context of, as power prices and gas prices start to come down, is there some correlation between those two segments, or are they very much independent and it just varies from year to year? So how do you think about that sales segment progressing in the context of changing commodity prices coming down for the next couple of years? Thank you.
Yeah. I'll start with the second one, and then move on to the first one. On the second one, what we are currently seeing is that with procurement prices and previous hedges for our retail business, the result is constantly improving. So when we look into 2025, we think that the results of the sales segment for 2025 will definitely be better than 2024.
Coming 2026, if prices continue to be lower, we should see results improvement there as well over the medium term in that business. You might remember that I mentioned a number of measures which we're taking in the sales segment. In terms of the guidance, I mean, you're right. What we usually do is we take the existing hydro coefficient, and for the rest of the year, we take 1.0. Now, yes, in October, we had a very strong hydro coefficient. What is the coefficient going to be in November or December? We don't know. If there were, and this is a singular piece within our guidance, there are other influencing factors as well.
But if the hydro coefficient were very high or high in October, November, December, particularly now November, December, because I already mentioned how much it was in October, then of course, that would be a positive within the guidance range.
And then just to clarify, could October have been an additional EUR 70 million? And on your comment on the sales segment, is that talking about the underlying business, excluding the intention improvement evaluation effect? Or is your comment taking into account that valuation effect reducing, and therefore that's why you would see a positive increase in the sales segment?
No, everything I've said in terms of the sales segment, the short and medium-term development is excluding any effects in terms of derivatives' mark-to-market valuations.
And on the October being potentially EUR 70 million positive, would you agree with that, or is that too much perhaps?
The October number is somewhere between 50 million and 70 million.
Please let us know. Thank you.
The next question is from Williams Harrison with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi there. Thanks for taking my questions. So two from me. Firstly, could you give us an update on your expected net debt to the end of the year? I think previously you guided to 0.8x EBITDA, but clearly you've increased EBITDA today. So an update there would help. And following on, what would be your longer-term gearing level that you are targeting or happy with? Maybe the timeline you look to get back to that level. And then the second question, just a confirmation on the regulatory accounts again. Can I confirm you said the accelerated unwind of that would be EUR 70 million in 2025? And is that the reasonable number to expect going forward beyond that as well?
Thanks.
Yeah. Okay. Good. Let me start with the debt level at the end of the year. It's approximately 0.7 net EBITDA. In terms of our target, our target is a net debt EBITDA of around three. That is something if EBITDA comes down with lower power prices and we continue with our CapEx, that is a number we could get to within the next few years, which is fine because the three is what we consider a normalized net EBITDA level. Also, something we have discussed over the years with the rating agencies, so this is perfectly acceptable. 0.7 is a low net EBITDA, which gives us room in terms of the CapEx, which we have been planning. On the regulatory account, yes, it is around EUR 70 million, which we are planning to reduce in the regulatory account between 2024 and 2025. And what was your third again?
Your third question.
The run rate beyond 2025 is EUR 70 million , kind of the, yeah, the run rate we should extrapolate into 2026 and beyond.
Can't really say that because it really depends on the regulator. I would not assume that automatically because we don't know what the regulator is going to decide.
Sure. No, that's clear. Thanks very much.
You're welcome.
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star, then one on your telephone. Next question is from Thibault Dujardin with Bernstein Société Générale. Please go ahead.
Hello. Thank you very much for taking my question. My question regarding new renewables and the impact of capacity addition, in particular in Spain. And I guess you mentioned that 80% of production is hedged. May I ask if you have more granularity per countries just to have a view on run rate EBITDA?
Yeah. On the PPAs, granularity per country, I cannot give you more detail. So far, we have decided to give you sort of the overall percentage of our contracted levels, which is around 75%. In terms of the new renewable developments, when you look at the EBITDA development, EBITDA has come down. That is something I mentioned in my presentation, despite the fact that we have a large percentage of contracted business. So around the 25% non-contracted business have suffered from lower power prices. That is also in line with some of the questions which we have discussed before. Now, with a continuation of lower power prices, we actually think that EBITDA next year in the new renewable segment could actually be either the same or could come down, but that really depends on the power price development.
So the new renewable segment somewhere moves in line with the hydro segment with the obvious exposure to power prices.
Thank you very much.
The next question is from Piotr Dzieciołowski with Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon. I have two questions. So the first one, I wanted to ask you more a little bit technically when you think about creating this combination of a solar plus battery. When you have a typical project called a 10-MW solar in Spain, what type of batteries would you have to add to make it to the base load? And when you think about this base load price, what kind of a levelized cost of energy you get at the end of it by kind of making a combination of these two assets? So that would be the first question.
The second question I have on your hydro in Austria, have you tried to lock in a long-term PPA prices for your output for another 12 hours? Your competitor from Nordic is trying to do a marketing of this power, but I wanted to ask you how it looks on your side.
Yeah. Piotr, on the first one, I cannot give you an LCOE on a combined solar and battery. What I can tell you is that when you combine solar with batteries, you should go for four hours. There were discussions around sort of one hour, two hours, but what you really need is the four hours in order to compensate for the very low prices when the radiation is strongest. As a result of that, the CapEx for a four-hour battery is obviously higher than the CapEx for a two or for three-hour battery.
There needs to be a smart approach to the combination of batteries, solar, wind, and hydro in order to optimize the LCOE. On your second point, hydro, we have decided that we are going to enter long-term PPAs on our hydro business. However, we have not yet seen price levels for long-term hydro PPAs that we found attractive enough. As a result of that, we have not concluded any significant PPAs. However, should there be developments for premium being paid for very constant green base load energy the same way we are seeing it in the U.S., then we would certainly enter such PPAs.
It's harder to be so persistent, but your unwillingness to give these LCOEs comes from the fact that it's different for different setup of assets, or that's because it's a competitive advantage and nobody talks about it yet?
Would the two prices, your long-term hydro PPA, would not be equivalent to exactly this amount?
Okay. Now, actually, could you say the last sentence as well when you mentioned hydro PPAs?
So I just thought, I mean, you either have a combination of a solar plus battery plus wind, whatever the combination is, and that is a green base load PPA. So LCOE on this price would be equivalent to your expectations of your hydro PPA because the product is the same. It's just differently produced. But I mean, is that the way you would think about your long-term attractive PPA price?
No. Two different markets. When I talk about our solar pipeline and the combination with batteries to achieve an attractive LCOE, there I'm talking about the Spanish market and obviously the price development in the Spanish market.
And when I talk about hydro PPAs, I'm mainly talking about the Austrian and the German market where we have our hydro power plants.
Sure. No, I understand. Look, thank you very much. Yeah, I'm happy with the answer. Thank you.
You're welcome. Thank you, Piotr.
We have a follow-up question from John Campbell with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Yeah. A couple more follow-ups. So one investor I was chatting with mentioned that I believe Acciona, according to Reuters, were considering selling some hydro assets, and in their view, they felt that it's quite rare for hydro assets to come up for sale. Again, it was in Reuters. I think it was a EUR 1 billion price. Is that something you would look at or have looked at, number one? Number two, German elections.
So one of the comments we found from Chancellor Scholz was, in terms of disagreement with his finance minister, rising electricity prices. So any comments you could give on the politics in Germany, whether that impacts you very much or not? And maybe lastly, just could you give me a reminder? So you said very clearly, right, you've got this EUR 70 million reduction in the accounts or whatever it is for APG. How will that affect the sort of the earnings that you report? Because I know there's some sort of a difference between GAAP and the way you report your earnings, etc. So could you just maybe remind me just for my benefit of that EUR 70 million effect for 2025 earnings?
Sure. I will start with the first one.
Yes, we look at hydro assets in Europe, and we would look at the hydro assets, which you have mentioned as well. The second point is Scholz and his comments, which he has made within the last 24 hours and previously, and some of the disagreements. I think it is important because it could be the basis for coalition negotiations next year. Sort of like a working hypothesis would be that there could be elections towards the end of March, maybe beginning of April. I think that those negotiations will probably be between the Socialist Party and the Conservative Party, the CDU. There seems to be a consensus in Germany, which is quite rational, that everybody, the entire industry, retail, everybody wants lower power prices. The pressure is huge because Germany is not doing well.
The industry is not doing well, and the industry has very much focused on power prices. And power price is not the only culprit. There are many others, but that is an easy one to sort of point out because everybody understands. So I think that there will be negotiations around that point. The problem is you have a conundrum. You have a real conundrum because on the one hand, with the build-out of renewables, you get lower power prices. At the same time, in order to integrate renewables and in your system transformation, to move from a decentralized, sorry, to move from a centralized to a decentralized system, you need a tremendous investment into transformer stations and into the grid. Those investments need to be shouldered, and those investments are going to be part of the energy price. So how are they going to resolve that? I don't know.
The only approach that would make sense and would be smart is to look at the entire system transformation, look at all the components, and try to really find a fully synchronized transformation, which also includes the base load issue. I don't know if you know, but yesterday we had a situation where we had no sun and we had no wind. Germany was in a, I wouldn't say in a traumatic situation, but in a difficult situation. It had to import base load as much as possible in order to avoid the fact that instead of 20,000 MW potential wind, there were only, I think, 600 or 700 MW. It was at 5:30 P.M., 6:00 P.M. in the evening, and obviously there was no sun. So the entire basel oad availability was required without imports. That would have been a real problem.
So that is just another sign how important it is to fully synchronize renewables build-out, base load availability, availability of flexibility products, and then, of course, net transfer capacities from other countries. So that is going to be a big topic, and if to take it seriously, should be a major part of the new policies coming out of a new German government early next year.
Oh, the regulatory account. Yeah. Now, yeah, the regulatory decreases in the regulatory account will have an impact on the earnings coming from the grid.
Perfect. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to the management for any closing remarks.
Yes. I would like to thank you for, as always, a very interesting discussion, which Andreas and I really appreciate.
Today is a very important day because of the U.S. elections and the geopolitical impact, which is very hard to grasp and is very hard to anticipate. We have seen the German coalition falling apart yesterday, last evening, with many open points in the future. The geopolitical side continues to be difficult and will bring volatility. We have discussed it in connection with the gas prices. If you take all that, we think that we're going to have, let me put it positively, we're going to have very interesting six to 12 months ahead of us. And in that context, I obviously appreciate your interest and your valid contributions in the discussions which we're always having at those conference calls. Many thanks and have a good day.
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line. Goodbye.