Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, at the results conference devoted to Q1 2025. I'd like to welcome all our guests, journalists, analysts, and representatives of companies and management boards of companies belonging to our group, and those of you that have joined us online. The host of this event is Grzegorz Kinelski, President of Enea, Dawid Gefert, Vice President of Enea for Corporate Affairs, Marek Lewandowski, Vice President of Enea for Financial Affairs, Bartosz Krysta, Vice President of Enea for Commercial Affairs, Artur Wasilewski, Deputy Director for Lubelski Węgiel Bogdanka. Now over to Grzegorz Kinelski.
Good afternoon once again. Welcome, ladies and gentlemen. I'm thinking about one of the films, and it seems that we have a lot of light in this room. I will try still to persevere, and I hope you will have many questions because I am blinded by the lights.
The beginning of the year was very positive, and no doubts that we keep realizing the strategy we adopted last year, both in financial and operational terms. All of the investment projects in renewable energy sources and the project that we had been planning have been on a good track. This also is about expanding our generation park and modernizing of our assets. All this in order to make our system secure. Still a lot of work ahead of us, but the very first months of that year have demonstrated that we are able to build a low-emission energy mix and that this will be our main objective. The results we've been able to achieve in Q1, you will see the slide in a moment, will be described by the management board in more detail, but I think that they form a solid foundation for further development of the company.
I dare say that Enea right now is very well positioned in terms of its financial standing. We are ready to start carrying out the investment project that will be funded by our funds and by external funding. Today we have been able to demonstrate that there will be other funding coming to our portfolio, PLN 9 billion that we will have received from BGK. This is all done in due care of the environment. The point is also to take care of local communities where we operate. That is an area that maybe is not that visible, but believe me that we do take care of our end customers. We want them to be supplied with energy, not just the energy in the installation, but so that they really feel well taken care of.
That also refers to our employees, to whom I'd like to thank very much before we start that conference. Big thank you to all of our teams for these results. Our team is strong, and 18,000 employees, that's our workforce, includes many experts in different areas, different domains. Hence, we are able to really well perform in terms of implementing our projects. We are self-sufficient in many areas thanks to our experts. Please accept my words of gratitude for Q1's results. Now, ahead of us, many tough quarters, many tough projects in the pipeline, but we are hopeful and we believe the future is bright. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for coming to this conference here in person. We can always count on your attendance, and I do hope you will keep attending our events. If anything can be improved, we do try to do it.
Please contact our communication team if you have any feedback. Now let me move on to the presentation.
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome. Let me present some data with respect to the market conditions in Q1 2025 and the current market situation. We still see drops in the energy prices on the commodity market, wholesale market. Right now, it's about PLN 415, and this price even went through the record-breaking level of PLN 400 on the base market. In terms of the spot market listings, the prices are quite low, lower than in the same period last year. It's below PLN 400 per MWh with a lot of fluctuations. Just in Q1, we had 40 instances of negative prices on the spot market and over 200 still, that's the balancing market.
We did expect this, which reflects the installed capacity in renewable energy sources and the way we operate our renewable facilities. There are hours of the day where the energy cannot be contained in the system, which then is reflected in spot prices and forward market. In terms of emission allowances, for some time now, we see a side-by-side trend. It is ranging between EUR 60-EUR 80. At the end of Q1, the level was quite low, oscillating in the area of EUR 60. Now it is about EUR 73 per ton. Also, when it comes to CO2, the situation is stable. It is similar for coal prices if you look at global indices. Now, when it comes to the national prices and domestic price rates, then the price is lower than in the same period last year. A final piece of information, quite important one, it is about the level of profitability.
The margin and the clean spark spread, these two indicators for some time now, over one year, have been going hand in hand. Unfortunately, CDSs are negative, and gas prices went down recently, and also this spread is slightly positive. All that refers to our base products, to the base load band.
Thank you very much for these results. Summing up, Q1 was stable, which marks a good beginning of the year. We see a drop in the revenues as compared to last year, which is due to energy prices only, which does not affect our business listings. EBITDA is a little bit higher than in Q1 2024. We had one-off event in Bogdanka that we are going to discuss in a moment. Hadn't it been for that event, that result would be a bit lower.
An increase in the EBITDA margin, this is because we have a better result and fewer revenues, and the net result is a natural consequence of good EBITDA result. We have ever better net debt result as compared to EBITDA LTM. This reflects the costs related to CO2. If these outflows had been corresponding with CO2 consumption, then the result would be a bit different. Now, from the viewpoint of how these results are broken down to individual business segments, we can speak about a very good result in Bogdanka, PLN 232 million more than in extraction year on year. There was this one-off event of about PLN 40 million. Artur will mention more in a moment. Now, generation here, the situation is worse, minus PLN 381 million. That is the consequence of the market situation.
Energy prices are dropping, and that translates directly into the margin that we can create for generation distribution. Stable upwards trend. We showed these results on our annual conference and investment projects in the distribution area. From the viewpoint of the tariff, we pay a lot of attention to the tariffs. We want them to be at the level of the regulations or even better. Now, sales, that's the information everyone has been waiting for. The sales recovered to the expected level. So the profitability right now has been reflected in these results. In the other areas, maybe they are less interesting from the viewpoint of the scale of the operation of the group, has also improved, also in terms of heat. Now, moving on to other segments. Now, when it comes to extraction, the result was PLN 549 million. This also PLN 150 million, that's the revenues from balancing capacities.
That product, just to remind you, was launched last year in June. In Q1, that product was not reflected last year. PLN 150 million of cleansed results. PLN 124 million, this is resale of energy and foreign exchange differences. They also led to a positive deviation here. The resale and foreign exchange, in those two items, we do not see such a big difference in terms of the forward prices and the spot prices, where we do not produce and can buy the energy back. That difference is not as big as it was last year. That result is not so impressive. However, we always had that buyback item, but there may be more of such instances because of the development of the renewable energy sources. There will be differences in day prices of energy. We will be active in that area.
In a moment, we will tell you more about extraction. Now, some more information about generation. Conventional market, this result stems from lower energy prices. In Q1, generation was actually higher in our main plants. Now, renewables, this is still a low contribution, but that result is a bit lower than it was last year because we had less production from hydro plants than we did in the previous quarter. These were the main important factors in terms of biomass firing, coal firing here. Energy prices also played a role. Now, distribution, very much related with the fact that we had a very good WACC result because distribution invests, this segment has invested a lot in the power grid. These projects, on the other hand, also fuel our growth. When it comes to the other elements, looking at the tariffs, they are slightly on a positive side.
We are coming back to the reality from prior to the energy crisis. Our assumption is that these results will show a market-oriented margin. There is a risk in Q4 related to the new tariffs, but that risk went down because we were not asked to come up with a new tariff for the second half of the year. Now we know that the tariff will be changed in Q4, so the risk was reduced essentially. Since prices are dropping of energy, that will not be such a painful event. Looking at cash flows, apart from EBITDA, taxes, investment expenditures, just like you heard from our President right now, we are achieving our plan in terms of the cash flows. Some other interesting highlights, the revolving capital, so CO2 settlement.
In the books, we showed CO2 costs, but we purchased those products in the form of our back-and-mark products. That means we purchased forward products, but then they will be paid in March. It is about PLN 1.4 million. On the other hand, we paid for CO2 for last year. In terms of stocks, the coal price went down, so the value of the stocks also went down, which is positive from the viewpoint of cash flows. In terms of liabilities and receivables, we still have some compensation fees that are yet to be paid, and there are taxes to be paid. One more thing that we have now, we have created a deposit, and the respective rates you will find in the presentation.
Thank you so much, ladies and gentlemen. Now a few words about the situation in the industry and on the market.
As you can see on the slide, the quarter data, our operational data on revenues, for example. Excuse me, I think we went too far. When we look at coal production or the sales, it is quite stable, and it seems that the volume that will be for the next coming years, the same that was for Q1, it is different when it comes to the price quotes. Drops again. 2024, in the beginning of this year, they have been noting price drops, and global indices show the same. Polish index is one year back towards global markets. After this peak that was due to the war in Ukraine, the prices were dropping in 2023. 2024 was the year of stabilization. As you can see, we are one year behind.
In 2024, there were drops on the market, and this year we've been noting drops, and it seems that the market will be stabilizing at this level, more or less. Now, the situation in the industry affected financial results because when you look at the bottom part of the chart, our operational data, you can see high dynamics in terms of production and sales. When it comes to revenues, there was a slight increase of 7%, and this is the result of the price drops. As we've been repeating, this is a capital invested industry, so volume matters a lot. This volume had a positive impact on costs of generation in terms of units. We have a higher margin. You can see the dynamics on EBITDA over 45%, so twice as much in terms of profitability of EBITDA in comparison to the previous quarter.
Let me just remind you that the net result, that's what Marek said, we had this compensation due to the liquidation and the elimination of the asset as there was this overflow of underwaters. The last chart right now that you can see here is how specific factors impacted EBITDA. Yes, huge volume, which had a very positive effect and which had compensated fully this drop in prices, a small change in terms of costs because of a smaller volume of sales. The last blue column shows you the result of this one-off. The quarter is we evaluated as very good as the Management Board. Once again, we can see that you can earn money on coal in Poland if you are effective and cost-effective as well.
Now, let us move on to generation. These are some typical indicators.
The sales at the level of 6.9 TWh and very high production levels. That was 20% higher in comparison to the previous year for three reasons mainly. The first one is renewables conditions, less wind and hydrological conditions, but the demand for power at our power plants, the power plants hubs, but also our competitiveness when it comes to merit order and when it comes to the offers that were made have allowed us to generate more, one TWh more almost. When it comes to other sources, cogeneration, biomass, and renewables, it did not have any impact. Basically, cogeneration, very small share, but it will be on the increase. Right now, we have prepared four out of six units in Połańiec power plant. There will be biomass cogeneration just to reduce emissions below 550 kWh .
This investment is to be finished by October so that we are ready for the year 2026. Let me just remind you that we won an auction on the Capacity Market. The cogeneration will be more important. We have a drop in the margin, PLN 449 million EBITDA, and this is due to worsening spreads when it comes to Clean Spark Spread. We also have this visible negative dynamic, the drop of electricity prices for some cost items such as coal and CO2. Now, renewables, from the perspective of installed power, installed capacity, we are at the same level. Not a lot has changed year on year. Only three photovoltaic plants at the end of the previous year. They started their generation. The generation is lower, as I have mentioned. As I have already said, this is mainly due to hydrological conditions.
We had smaller activity of hydro plants and less wind, which translates into smaller generation of generation. It was 91 GWh . Let us now move on to renewables development and our projects in the pipeline. That is the continuation of what was happening at the end of 2024, beginning 2025. This is something that is already part of our portfolio. It is already operational. There will be 20 MW more this year for our photovoltaic projects. There was increase for wind, one acquisition. I will mention that in a moment. We expect further development and expansion of renewable projects. We have informed you and the market about two acquisitions in March this year and in April this year. We purchased two farms, basically two wind projects. One consists of six farms and the other one is one farm.
Altogether two projects, Zefiroves and Pelplin, with a total capacity of 166.7 MW. This is two and a half times more than what we had last year, until the 27th of March, which is when the purchase of these two projects happened. The total amount of energy that will be produced in these farms annually is over 430 GWh . As I have mentioned, this energy will be for the retail portfolio in order to sell it to final recipients, both to businesses and individual clients. Next, what's in the pipeline in terms of our projects? 1.28 GW, and this makes up 580 for photovoltaics, 520 storage facilities, 180 wind. We are working on two acquisition projects. It's still in the process of being planned.
We have been looking at all the projects in a very reasonable way because renewables are cheaper on the power market. We purchase projects, but we also develop. The point is to be as effective and have as high return on the investment as possible.
When it comes to distribution, we showed you a lot during the conference on annual results because many factors have an impact on it. That is the regulated value of the assets, which results from high investments. This regulated value of the assets has increased a lot in comparison to previous years and the average weighted cost of capital. Let me just remind you that additionally this year we have this additional incentive to invest. 35% of our investments this year has already been taken into account into the tariff, into the remuneration.
WRA and WACC, this needs to be added to the balance. The rest is in compliance with what we have planned. We are monitoring the costs and investments to be able to deliver at the end of the year so that we can do everything as planned. Right now, another point that we wanted to mention to our customers, generation plants are very much interested in it, and it has also an influence on energy transformation. This important indicator is part of our strategy, how much renewables are connected to our grid. 2.1, there is this increase in comparison to the previous year, that is in this quarter, to 1,000 more, 41 MW. Right now we have 7.4 GW connected to the grid, 194 sources, 1,000 sources.
Something that we did not show you recently, something that's already been accepted between us and the customers, the agreements, connection agreements signed and the conditions for the connection that have been issued. As you can see, this gives an additional 6.4 GW. There is one new thing that we've been trying to meet the expectations of our customers. We want to inform our clients about renewables just a bit so that they can submit their proposals in a more precise way so that they do not place an order if there is no chance, as this can delay the whole process for other clients. This optimizes our processes as well as the processes on the side of the customer. As you can see, the left-hand map shows you the renewables intensity concentration in specific districts.
You can see how much energy is needed in the specific district as well. This is what gives us the average result of 2, 7.4 divided by 3.5. In some districts, it is 0.1. This is the lowest indicator. That is almost no renewables. In other districts, it is 14. There are some parts, some areas where we are present. This is where the renewables power is 14 times more than what is needed. This clearly shows what this energy transformation is about. It used to flow from high to low voltage, and now it is produced in 2,000 places, and we have to deal with this energy. This is this component of distribution. These are the kinds of expenditures in the distribution that we want to incur to face this energy transformation, to make it possible to connect more sources.
This map also shows you some limitations in terms of the connection to the grid because some entities are denied simply because the grid is simply not able to consume the energy that is generated. Next, the map, which shows you where the power is still available. If this dot is empty, this means there is no capacity, and it will not be there in the next couple of years. I would like to encourage you to take a look at this map online. We have information for renewables generators, producers, and you can look at the map to really better understand the situation in which we are in. Also, it is good for investors to know that to make better informed decisions. One more thing, right now we have over 1,200 requests for connection conditions to the tune of 13.6 GW.
That's the scale that we are talking about. That's the transformation. Now, in terms of quality parameters, SAIDI and SAIFI, they've been improving. Have a look on the left-hand side, including disaster events. We see that these statistics are getting ever better. You see on the right-hand side that we, without excluding the disaster situations, every quarter the situation is ever better. Let me reiterate what we said last year. Last year, we had the best parameters in Poland looking at quality outside of this capital city operator. It is the capital city. It is a different league, and we are dealing with a more diversified area. What are the highlights in terms of distribution? Prior to that conference, we had a true highlight because with BGK, we signed an agreement. This makes us really proud. Many of you were also there.
Many of you took part in that process from Enea team. Congratulations to all of you. We know how much effort that required. We are talking about PLN 9.13 billion. That's the fund that we will receive. Let me just remind you that for distribution, we would spend some years ago like PLN 1 billion. Now this will be nine times more. This is really a lot of money. The central thing is that we spend that money wisely for the most important thing because our grid is very underinvested and really requires a lot of projects. That is not it because we are looking at other projects such as Afir Power EU, where we do not want any more cheap loans, but here we want to apply for subsidies. Some of them we have already received, and we can demonstrate you some success stories.
This is presented on the slide. We hope that with these programs, we will receive more funds so that we can have more CapEx spending. Looking at CapEx, these processes are very complex. Spending PLN 3 billion, ladies and gentlemen, is not a simple thing because you want to make sure that you spend the money wisely at good prices. That also requires improvement of processes on our side. What the customer will see is that if in 2031 we will have achieved our development plan, then the cabling will go up to 40%. And right now it's much less. We are talking about areas where cabling is so necessary because there is a lot of wind there and posts get destroyed very quickly. That's why we prefer cable lines. The next topic is automation of the grid. Next year, the grid will be automated to 100%.
We will have also 26 years until 2026 that we will reach 100%. The average age of lines and transformer stations will decrease to 26 in 2031. Talking about flexibility and the number of sources connected to the grid, we already have signed agreements and customers want more connections. Let me say we have many such requests. Apart from the technical setup, we want to launch new products. We are the first operator in Poland that offered that you can draw more active power than agreed as a limit. The same applies to passive power. It really boils down to wise consumption of energy. We want energy to be used right where it is generated instead of just sending it and transmitting across the whole country through the transmission operator lines.
Moving on to sales now, sales in electricity.
First, let me say how I welcome the fact that we are coming back to the right track. Look at our EBITDA, PLN 214 million for Q1. PLN 213 million relates to the retail segment. This is electricity supply to individual and customers. That's the adequate level. Margin 5%-6%. That would be the level that we find very decent. This is what we generate in the retail segment. We want to keep it this way. How come we increase the margin? This is related to two factors. The first thing is that the year 2025, we no longer need to freeze prices for medium-sized and small companies. Just let me remind you that last year, many customers were allowed to a price freeze, which reduced our margin by over PLN 200 million. This year, there is also more revenues coming from the tariff.
The reason is, you might recall that last year, the tariff rates went down beginning from July 1 to PLN 622 roughly, and that was issued for 15 months. This year, part of the losses in our revenues will be compensated. Margin, EBITDA 4.3%, whereas in the retail area, 6.2%. Sales is very comparable to last year. It is a negligible difference of just 5%. Five percent really is a small difference that is not an outlier. Now I am moving on to our products strategy and how we approach the market. We want to be a driving wheel behind the transition. It is the customer that is in the center of attention. We were able to sell about 600 GWh of energy in the so-called Eco-Offer, Eco-Offerta, both to business and individual households.
These are several long contracts, 3 and 5 years old, 3 and 5 years respectively, and that product is still being sold. We have been consistently carrying out our assumptions. We say every MWh produced, both in our renewable sources and in the assets held by Enea Group and contracted from other producers, will be dedicated to end customers, both businesses and households. Also, Enea Smart is a tool that has been developing in a very positive way. We have four new packages devoted to making generations, optimizing, and increasing safety for customers. This tool has been quite popular. 46% is the growth rate year on year of Enea Smart. We have put a lot of effort into making that happen. That refers also to SMEs. We had many loyalty-boosting actions, many actions promoting green products, but also energy supplies bundled with other products.
Customers are no longer protected by some state price freezes. Hence, we try to come up with a price rate that will be similar to the price rates which are there on the market. We have been very active here. The same applies to those customers that represent SMEs. They need to file special declarations on receiving state aid, and the deadline was prolonged until the end of June. Those clients must file that declarations. Otherwise, they will be required to return the money they received. In a nutshell, our green window to the world is called Enea Eco. It is now a company with an official concession, a concession officially licensed to make PPA contracts and to deliver green energy, mostly to big clients. We are running talks on a product called Renewable Installation Plus. Installation Plus. Installation Plus Maintenance and Servicing.
We want to be a partner. We want to be a consultant and an advisor to the client. That is not our core business. That consulting and advisory part shall be a complementary function to drive sales of energy. This is all aimed to educate customers to have more partnerships so that customers know more what this is all about. Hundreds of customers have attended the webinars that we have organized so far devoted to that topic. Actually, we want to come up with something like a transformation on Netflix so that customers can be self-educated watching these footages. The point is to educate the customers so that then they can benefit from relevant projects. This is how we have been developing Enea Eco.
Ladies and gentlemen, some information on the investment expenditures.
As you heard from our President, we've been delivering our strategy, even though you might have the impression that the expenditures in Q1 were not delivered. It is because sometimes we need to transfer certain transactions. Huge acquisitions that were planned to be made in this quarter did not happen in quarter one. As you heard, they have been delivered. In upcoming months, you will see proper execution. I would like to add one more thing here. On the last conference, I shared with you about PLN 8 billion of the planned investment outlays. This year, this forecast is still valid. It will be executed as planned.
By the way, the agreement that we signed today, whose value is over PLN 9 billion of a cheap loan for distribution, actually mobilized us to take up optimization efforts in the group so that we are able to deliver everything on time. Let me remind you that these are not simple projects. Most of the transactions that we make are part of the public procurement. That requires a lot of organizational efforts. We need to streamline our processes. We need to come up with wise plans, and we need to contract proper deliveries to make sure that we execute all that in the end. Right now, as I said, we are on track with our strategic plans. We have over 180 projects running now in all of the areas.
40 of those are strictly strategic projects, which are monitored by the group every quarter and every year. The efforts we have been making are all reflecting our plans. If you look at the distribution investment outlays, most of these expenditures go to connect new customers, make new connections. That is actually how we develop the grid, which is necessary to execute our strategy. Thank you very much. That is it from me.
Ladies and gentlemen, just briefly about some perspectives for our capital group. Looking at the whole supply chain, the challenges and trends that we expect in 2025, we do count that the level of production and sales of coal will be stable. The price of coal hopefully will be more stable and will stay at a more rational level. Right now, it is quite lower than average extraction costs, looking at Polish mines.
Now, Bogdanka Plant, Bogdanka Mine copes quite well, and they will have a good result. So plant extraction and sales amounts to 8 million tons or even more. That's what we desire, and we believe it's also realistic. In terms of distribution, we see a growth in WRA, and also we see we get the bonus for reinvesting. This is WACC. Also, we told you how active we are in finding external funds, such as today the one that we've acquired from the recovery plan. We are talking about huge amounts of money, but now we need to invest them wisely. This is a challenge. That year, ladies and gentlemen, will be quite central looking at legislative changes, CSIRE, but also the capacity market, additional capacity auction in July, complementary capacity auction, and CSIRE that I mentioned before, Central Energy Market Information System.
Kozienice project, these are blocks that are not supported by the capacity market for the year 2026. Apart from that, there are many pieces of regulation that speak about biomass fuels, Red III directive that in a couple of days will have been adopted officially. It will become a valid act. That will mean many challenges for us. In terms of generation, what we expect is that spreads will be negative and that we can generate profit on the buyback. We really need to be very watchful when it comes to the margins. Margins might be negative in some instances. We will need to look at other areas such as systemic services where we can make more money. In some hours of the day, there is an oversupply, and we will have more wind and PV sources. Excuse me.
Right now, we have over 23 GW of energy from these sources. There will be several GW that will be added to that grid for sure. Yeah. There will be some tendencies in terms of price fluctuations that will be reinforced, especially in those hours where PV facilities are running. That means we will need to react in a very flexible way to the behavior on the market. Finally, sales. As I said, I believe the market has returned to its normal situation from before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. It's like mid-2021 price level. That's the price rates that we believe are acceptable, comparable.
Even though we are a bit more expensive on the wholesale market than in other countries, still we hope these levels will not require any interventions from the state, any freezes so that we can play by market rules and we can develop the sales sector in a competitive way. That is what we need very much because there are so many challenges, product-related, technology-related. Hence, this is very positive motivation for us. We really want to have a good business case. Thank you very much.
Thank you so much. Thank you for this detailed discussion of all the results. President Kinecki mentioned that it is good to see interactive maps on the website of Enea Operator, which show the concentration of green energy as well as network availability. You can take a look at it now.
Czy wiesz, że Enea Operator jest nie tylko jednym z pięciu największych operatorów systemu dystrybucyjnego w Polsce, ale też najbardziej zielonym? Blisko 40% energii, która przepływa przez nasze sieci, to energia zielona. Zajrzyjmy na naszą stronę internetową. Publikujemy tutaj interaktywne mapy nasycenia OZE. Każdy zainteresowany może sprawdzić poziom nasycenia OZE z podziałem na powiaty. Przedsiębiorcy zainteresowani inwestycją w OZE na naszym obszarze mogą sprawdzić, czy i gdzie są dostępne moce przyłączeniowe, nie tylko w czasie teraźniejszym, ale także w perspektywie kilku lat. Określamy poziom aktywności w transformacji energetycznej za pomocą specjalnego wskaźnika. Jak to zrobić? Wystarczy podzielić wartość mocy zainstalowanej OZE w sieci Enea Operator przez wartość maksymalnego zapotrzebowania odbiorców na energię elektryczną w danym roku. Obecnie moc przyłączonych OZE na naszym terenie wynosi ponad 7.4 gigawata, a moc zapotrzebowania to blisko 3.6 gigawata, czyli wskaźnik nasycenia OZE to ponad 2, a dążymy do 4.5.
Będzie to możliwe, bo w niektórych powiatach na terenie Enea Operator wynosi on już nawet 10. Poziom wskaźnika aktywności w transformacji energetycznej dla konkretnego powiatu w danym województwie również można sprawdzić na naszej stronie internetowej. Dzięki wprowadzonym innowacyjnym rozwiązaniom nieustannie zwiększamy potencjał OZE w generacji. Oczywiście do wejścia na stronę internetową.
Of course, you can visit our website. Now, it is probably this part of the conference that the journalists have been looking forward to. Over to you now. We can ask questions. Nie odbieramy głosu, absolutnie nie. Raz, dwa, trzy, próba mikrofonu. Działa teraz? I hope it works. Dzień dobry, Paweł Puchalski.
Good morning. Puchalski from Santander. I have three questions. First of all, congratulations. Dziękuję za rekomendację dywidendy. On dividend recommendation. The question is, will the dividend be recommended in the coming 10 years? Is that a one-off thing?
Given this rising net debt and EBITDA, will that be limited or withheld? Secondly, the second question. 2025 has seen many regulatory asset-based in the distribution sector. In light of your CapEx plans and others. Wiemy, że nie wiemy dokładnie, na jaki może. We do not know that exactly, but what kind of RAB increase are we talking about? Will that be similar or different? The third question. Recently, you have annexed the contract with your extractor, and I am not sure I understand all the provisions correctly. There is this additional option available, and it is fine. Will the volumes, once this additional option is on in Bogdanka, be really higher in comparison to the previous year or rather flat? The second question related to this one is that in the contract, there are some long-term values of contracts indicated.
Do these contracts take into account this additional option for the year 2025 and 2026 or not? Because this is a key thing.
Let me get back, get started with the dividend. You could say that we are back to our commitments towards the market. Our dividend policy says that when the company has a net result and has financial capabilities to pay out the dividend, then it is between 30% and 60%. The answer is that we want to get back to this policy. That is the first step. If we have these possibilities, if we have a net result, this is what we will recommend. Let me remind you, this is not the decision of the Management Board, but this will be our recommendation. In terms of RAB, it is a recommendation. It is due to our investment expenditures and also amortization.
I believe that the RAB level will be increasing when our investment expenditures will increase. Last year, it was around PLN 1.8 billion. It's almost PLN 1 billion more this year. So probably RAB will be on the increase as well. I don't want to make a guess right now, but we can tell you what we expect because we can see the level of investment expenditures. We just need to calculate the amortization, and this will give you the regulated assets value for next year.
The annex, one more question was about the annex. When it comes to the annex, the option and the increase of the volume means that the increase will happen this year. Will that be stable? We know that the demand for the raw material for coal will be depending on the profile of the production. It will also depend on the specific months.
Given coal consumption in the first, you could say, four or five months, May is not over yet, but we know what the demand was very precisely. Looking at that and at production scenarios until the end of this year, it seems fair to say that there is this space to increase the volume. This increase will be for this year, only for this year.
I would like to get back to my question. Are we talking about this increase because there is this additional option? My question is whether after the option, the volume for 2025 will be higher than the volume in 2024. I mean, Enea purchases of coal.
This is not an option. It has been contracted. It was an option, and the annex that was signed made it the reality. The option is part of the plan.
It will be reflected in Bogdanka sales, but also in the plan of coal use of Enea. It's not an option anymore. It's a fact. This coal will be used.
Just the second part of my question about the values in the communication. Are these values presented taking into account this?
Yes. Yes, of course. The price, the values that you can see in the communication, they do correspond to the volume which takes into account this higher demand and more deliveries of coal from Bogdanka to the Enea Group. Thank you.
Next question.
Thank you. Michał Kozak. I have a few questions. I will go one by one. The first very short question about the dividend. You said this policy will be continued if the situation allows us. You talk about the net result mainly.
When you look into inflows and the CapEx base was very low in 2024, there will be a lot of expenditure this year in Kozienice. With this optics of expenditure and the flows, will maybe this year be uncertain in terms of the dividend?
The answer, of course, the situation is pretty complicated because it is a model for many years, designed for many years. I cannot be very precise right now. Even if I knew various scenarios, I will just reiterate that if in a given year there is this net result and if the situation of the company allows that, and by that I mean also if we take into account this model for the future, we recommended the dividend for the previous year against the background of very good cash results in 2024 and 2023.
We were fully aware when we issued that, when we issued the recommendation. In the coming years, if we generate the cash flow that is sufficient enough, and if it allows us to close the model, if we take into account what we need for our activity and for investments, this will meet the condition and we will be able to afford the payout of the dividend. We will take a look at the model, at the scenarios. This will be the basis of our decisions.
Thank you. Now, gas. That is in the present presentation. Polanic Gas Company was incorporated. My question is, will we have the new gas power plant for the year 2030, what size will it be?
CCGT and OCGT, without the steam component, this is more flexible, it's cheaper in terms of the unit cost, and it would seem more adequate given what will happen with the system with the rising share of RES. Why do you want CCGT and not more flexible OCGT?
I will put it this way. I don't want to argue about technology, but CCGT was selected, it was well thought about, and it is adequate from the technological investment and business point of view. It's also available to all investors, and there are quite a few investments right now. They go into this direction. Yes, in Połańiec, we are planning that. We want to build two CCGT units, maybe very similar to the ones in Kozienice, maybe a bit smaller. We'll see. We are conducting analysis all the time. We want to enter the capacity market in 2030.
In light of the accessibility of gas, in light of these conditions in Kozienice and in Połańiec, we are considering units in the open system, or another technology for gas pickers. The capacity is around 500-600 MW for both locations. We are still conducting analysis. We do not have precise numbers yet. Yes, indeed, we are considering that. We have been planning that.
Clean Spark Spread, when you look at that, is not that a simplification when it comes to these units? Are you maybe not assuming positive margins, but maybe you are just assuming power auctions?
The spread that we are presenting is kind of a simplification. Let me remind you that this spread refers to the basic stripe, and effective price is another issue. It is not about 8,776 hours, but let us say 5,500.
As you can see, gas units are very efficient, so prices are much higher than the basic price. We think that the spread will be positive. Of course, this is not the only revenue source. Of course, this is very important for the capacity market. We also want to give balancing and provide balancing services.
Okay, thank you. The last question about distribution. When we look at contribution of specific elements to EBITDA, then we have WACC and WRA, but there are also effects in Q1 on the additional return on investments and other effects. Will that be the same in other quarters, or was that a one-off event in Q1, and it is not to be expected in the coming quarters?
This return on investment, this is something that we can really expect to happen again because it is for the whole year.
Other elements can vary depending on costs, distribution costs in the coming quarters. As I have said, our ambition is to have it on the positive side. That is, we do not want to consume these model elements that are set for such a company as ours, that is a distribution company.
Do we have any more questions? Okay.
Thank you. Piotr Dęciołowski, CitiBank. Congratulations on the first quarter. Amazing results. I have a few questions. First about retail, because you have made a profit on the sales, and it was all from retail sales. Now, if you divide EBITDA through the volume, it turns out, I do not know if I am doing the maths correctly, but it is PLN 180 per 1 MWh consumer, right? If you divide that correctly. The question is, what about the margin for next year?
Because historically speaking, the margin was pretty low. It was one digit. Half is on the tariff side, the other half is on the market. That is one question about the sales. Secondly, why did you not generate any margin from the business? Because PLN 1 million, 5 TWh . I do not know if I am doing the maths correctly. My question is about the sales.
Let me put it this way. The margin on the retail side is the margin on the whole sales to final recipients, both households and business consumers. Both big, small, and medium recipients, business recipients. This is the whole portfolio of final recipients. That is what it is about the retail. The rest is about wholesale trade. It is about the way that we manage the portfolio and energy in the group. There is a very small margin that was made on the wholesale trade.
The whole of the margin, 214 or 213 million, this is the margin from the sales.
Okay, so by retail, you understand everything, right? Not only tariff G. The answer. If you have EBITDA 213 for Q1, then at the same time, we sold 6.2 TWh . You have 34.
Question. All right. I thought that by retail, you mean retail, but it is my fault. I have other questions as well. Now, when it comes to distribution, if you have 12% return on equity or capital, what is the cost of the loan from BGK, from the recovery resilience plan? Is there any chance that someone will come and ask, how come that you earn 12% from being a monopoly and the cost of financing is much lower and the spread seems to be the best in Europe? The second question about distribution.
When you plan that you will spend billions of Polish zlotys in 2030, what will be the distribution cost per unit? What will you charge? Will the bills be higher?
Let me say two facts. The first is that EBITDA is not a success guarantee, but the cash flows, cash flows that are generated, that is more measurable. We want to really underline this. Looking at our strategy until 2031, we will have spent PLN 40 billion in distribution. That will be more than the EBITDA that we will have generated in that area. From the viewpoint of the result, the EBITDA in that great margin, in fact, means we will have spent more money in that period than we will have generated in the result. Plus, we need to pay taxes on top. From that perspective, that loan will put less burden on our clients.
These mechanisms are adopted to support transformation, to make it more digestible for businesses and for customers. The block fired, the gas fired block, the energy market has been changing. It's no longer just the sales. We are talking about capacity sources that will be part of the system, and they will be necessary to be commissioned and to be used when there will be no wind or sun. For that, a new capacity fee will be charged. That's the new market configuration. As I said, it's only PLN 9 billion, and our plan is to spend PLN 40 billion. On top of that, we need to pay the money back. If you deduct taxes and expenditures on our side, not that much money will be left, in fact. I mean, it's a great business. It's stable. It's regulated.
A lot of money in the years to come, we will need to spend. It is not like a great regulation that will produce loads of money. We are talking about a comprehensive market transformation and creating value. We will create value, but we will not see that much free cash, I am sure.
Mr. Marek, you have not answered my question, sir. My question is, what is the risk? I mean, I understand your logic, even though I beg to differ. What if the Energy Regulatory Office knocks at your door and says, you have 5% WACC or other very favorable, whereas in other areas, the spread is much different than in your case? They will ask for justification. What will be the charge in the end?
Such risk exists, obviously. If there is such action taken, we will react.
Our group can't afford to pay more than what we make. That would mean we would need to reduce the money for transformation. I understand the current President of the Energy Regulatory Office understands the current mechanisms. He knows we need to adjust the distribution situation to the market. If we limit the money, that will slow down the transformation. It's as simple as that. Now, how does that translate to end customers? Of course, that's important. We can't forget about this. How such loans, like from BGK, will mitigate the influence on the customer. Remember, however, that in the distribution fee, our fee is just one of the elements. The rest will be capacity fees for gas sources and other products which require investment, and that will be included in that fee. I can't answer that question because I don't have the full picture.
I don't know how much money will flow to us in the end and how that will impact the distribution tariff. We can do what we can. We will optimize our own costs so that we can limit our impact on the tariff. I know that at a certain level, some charges won't be accepted anymore by households.
Hi, Irina Kinecka, Virtualny Przemysł. My question is about those complementary auction efforts that you mentioned. Have you any idea about the capacities and your contribution in the May auction? When you think about the full auction, you mentioned Kozienice blocks that would be launched. Can you be more specific here? Which blocks actually do you mean? Talking about the autumn auction, what would be the dependence between the result of the auction and the future of the blocks that you will declare in that auction?
If the scenario is negative, maybe they will not be commissioned. Would they be decommissioned, or will they still be kept active?
Let me start with the last question you asked, sir. To be fair, I am quite convinced that that complementary auction will take place in September and that its parameters will allow us to contract a portfolio of capacities in coal for 2026 so that we can deliver on our plans. I can hardly imagine a situation where some conditions would cause some blocks to be excluded from the capacity market. That would mean that they have no rationale in existing on the market. The exact configuration is not clear yet. We do not have one clear scenario. We will offer several blocks during the auction in September. We have an open position with respect to 10 blocks, eight 200 class and two 500 class blocks.
We need to come up with a configuration that will provide us with a backup option for those entities that will be operated in the capacity market. We keep analyzing that, looking at which configuration of blocks should be offered for the capacity. As I said, the 200 and 500 blocks. We need to have a proper backup, whether all micro farms will be included and how we will cover our fixed costs and the investments for restoration projects. These analyses are ongoing. However, I am sure that looking at the criticality of that situation, the parameters of the future auction will make it possible to create the proper return and to get the return on the fixed cost so that we do not need to decommission any block from the system.
Briefly about the complementary auction for 2025, yes, we did apply with our green unit and we won the auction. It is 200 MW in Połańiec.
The final question, please.
Robert Maj, IPOPEMA Securities. Right, talking about the sales segment, you mentioned 6% margin of EBITDA as the adequate one. Can you expect then that in Q4, once you have the new tariff, it again will be 6%? Thinking about 2026, will it be the same? One more thing about the distribution, the 12% WACC. Do you expect that it will stay like that in the upcoming years?
Let me start with the sales topic. The margin of 5-6% on the whole portfolio of sales, to me, seems to be a fair and adequate one.
I'm not talking about the portfolio of small customers, where the level of margin should be actually higher because we have higher costs for servicing such clients and more costs are allocated there. So the margin should be covered by those costs. Looking at the entire portfolio of 25 TWh , a 5% or 6% margin rate would be a good, a desired, and a fair one, I guess. Now, in terms of Q4 and the G tariff, that might be reduced, I have a hard time responding to that because all in all, I welcome the fact that the deadline was postponed. In July, we will know more of the costs for the previous seven months.
We will be in the position to precisely specify the regulated revenues that we need to generate in 2025 in order to achieve what is allowed by tariff parameters and also to cover the loss, the loss in the revenue that we incurred because the tariff was reduced in 2024. It's hard for me to say right now what the exact configuration will be, but we will be calculating that and we will have more precise information in two months' time. The year 2026, I believe this will be a year where no regulation, no freezes will be necessary and that the price rates will be regular, that they will be those that we see on the market in normal conditions, both in terms of strategic customers, SMEs, and individual clients.
In terms of WACC, the one thing we can be sure about is that 8.5%, that's the commitment that was accepted by the President of the Energy Regulatory Office. On the other hand, we hope that URE President will show his understanding because we need to have the money to be able to fund our investments, and the costs are very, very, very high as compared to previous years. So WACC, in fact, is one of the factors that very much drive these results.
Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen, also those of you that followed us online. Thank you to the Management Board for presenting the results and for delving in detail. See you on the next conference for Q2 2025.