Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. Welcome again. We are starting today's meeting with the management board of Grupa Kęty. We have all members of the board and Rafał Lechowicz, Head of the Board of Alupol Packaging S.A. Today's meeting will be dedicated to the results after the third quarter of 2021 and the prospects for the new quarter as usual. The meeting will be opened by Dariusz Mańko, the CEO, then the Heads of the segments will give their presentations. Then we will have financial details and move on to the Q&A session. Right now, I will share the presentation on the screen so that you can see it and we're starting.
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome. The last time I said that we will probably have a live meeting, it seems that we are approaching the fourth wave of the pandemic, there will be no opportunity to receive your congratulations personally from you for our results. Well, that was a joke, the results of the third quarter, as we informed you before, the results are very good, that's why we've corrected our prospect for 2021. All results connected with EBITDA and net profit had to be raised, I think these are the good information. In addition to the good info, we can say that we are fully booked, we are working at full speed. This is what is happening in many companies.
We are not the only one beneficiary of this a little bit crazy demand, but with all the joy that we have right now, we cannot forget about what is happening around the world. Here we must remember about the resources because this is unusual. This is not normal. This is not a natural demand growth, 100% or 200% and 300% growth of demand for metals, for instance. We are a little bit concerned because this is a wildly growing prices of raw materials and that leads to problems, issues because we have to keep telling our clients why we have to raise our prices. Everybody is concerned and that does not help good relations with our customers because some pathological situations are involved.
Somebody will buy something at a good price and then sell it again and win but it is not a sustainable development because in our world, security is important. We are quite concerned here. This is one thing about the market. Another thing is the inflation. I've went through a lot in my company, through many crisis and other issues, but with low inflation, the comfort of our operation was completely different. We were able to actually stop discussing problems with our trade unions because we were able to actually work on the budget and we could achieve a stable growth of the budget for our employees. Right now, all companies will have to have discussions and we are coming back to a situation that we had 10 years ago and the trade unions actually come over.
They say there is inflation plus. For instance, we will have to have the salary growth of 9%. This is the inflation scale and it's spinning out of control. This is a very bad information, a very bad piece of information and very bad situation. Next year, we will have a lot of work. We are all wondering how this will continue, whether our government will be able to respond to this spiraling inflation. There is a lot of work ahead. This is the backdrop. We are working on our budget for the next year. We've been here in this company and working professionally for many years. This is nothing new for us. We are actually realizing the fact that we have to plan the budget, think about the aluminum prices, the USD prices, the carriers also prices.
For instance, the energy prices are growing as well, the fuel prices are growing as well. If we have to pay for energy, well, with the growing prices, we will have to actually accommodate it into our product price, final price. The time is very interesting right now. It requires a lot of work from us. Well, we've went through a lot already. We have a lot of experience and we are having everything under control. I believe there are many companies that are not really prepared for that and they will be hit by the situation. I hope they will be able to manage and in the end, win. We hope for only good information that will be shared by us quarter- by- quarter. Other important messages.
Well, we've just finalized the verification process, the analysis process of the Flexible Packaging Segment, searching for possible investor. Nothing is happening here. Nothing new is happening here. Well, please do not feel disappointed. This is a very good segment, delivering very good results. We have a lot of hopes for the future and we will continue operating as three segments, and we will present you next year's budget based on three segments as well.
I think we can move on to details right now. Extruded Products Segment and Piotr Wysocki, please go ahead.
Well, I will actually tell you what is the situation right now. Metals and aluminium is at $3,050 but there were also the levels of $3,200. Metals are lower right now, $3,050 right now but over huge growth of per price. Last time I saw it was 10 years ago, a very high level. That is also connected with the prices of the U.S. dollars. The billet market is really crazy. This is what we use for our aluminum profiles for extruding it and right now this is PLN 1,450. This is the price. With this high level of market, well, we want to have some hedging, some leverage here. Additionally, what has happened in the recent weeks is the crazy situation with the magnesium and silicon. Well, aluminum profile requires alloying additives, including magnesium and silicon.
Today, the magnesium is PLN 16,500. This is the price. This is a crazy price right now. PLN 16,500. This is the price. This is a cosmic growth that happened within a few weeks. Now it seems stable at this level, but this is a record-setting level and silicon over PLN 8,000. Nobody had any forecast like that. Nobody could have thought about it. Silicon and magnesium, we don't purchase a lot of those elements but we are unable to function without them. We have to fight to have both silicon and magnesium for our alloy. The third quarter was very good for Extruded Products segments. Our sales 3,500 tons more. 3,500 tons more sold. High dynamics of the value of sales but this is also connected with the price, aluminum price on the stock exchange. It seems that everything is becoming very expensive.
Despite that, we also recorded a very good margin result. This is 17.8%. We continue selecting the customers who are able to pay, who want to work with us long-term. We raise the prices because we are forced to do so, because the raw materials are actually becoming more expensive. Well, with production, with high volumes, we work at full capacity, so we are able to improve our efficiency and the effectiveness. As I've said, the sales during the third quarter is a record high and export takes a big share, especially in Germany. We have a strong position there. It's our biggest export market. The prices are really good. In Italy, same situation, big demand in Italy. There are a lot of producers on that market. Despite that, our export is growing at really satisfying prices.
The production, as I've said, we are working at full capacity 24/7, four shifts. Naturally, we cannot increase it, and we will be continuing our investments in November and December, and our production capacities will be increased. Well, I am smoothly going on to the investments. We are investing in presses. For instance, 40 MN, all is according to the schedule, and we can safely say that in November we will be able to sell products of the small press, and then 40 MN will be actually launched in 2023. Everything is according to the schedule, despite the crazy situation and very tough situation on the construction market. It's very hard for long-term planning. Interesting things. Well, I'd like to tell you about the Automotive segment. The development of e-mobility, we wanted to join that as well, and our position is very strong there. Let me say this.
Our Slovenian company started supplying the aluminum components for American Fisker electric cars. We forecast that the project duration is 2023, 2029, and number of aluminum profiles will be 2,000 tons per year. On the pictures here, you can see what we are manufacturing and how it is used. This is a photograph of a car. All those profiles are produced by our company, AK EMMI. The green profiles are capturing the energy. They are very important for the vehicles. Another important event was the Polish Aluminum Association that was registered in July this year. It will represent the interest of the companies that operate in the Polish aluminum industry. These are the leading producers. This is a forum to exchange experience, information, and we can discuss all things connected with the market, with what is happening, the current situations.
This is an additional source of information for us. Also, legislative issues, customs issues. We're fighting also for the duties. This will be an organization that will support the development of aluminum industry in general. That's all from me. Thank you so much.
We are moving on to Aluminium Systems. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Well, about the troubles we've heard previously, all those troubles affect us as well, our trading operations. Well, we became more purchase company, so the domestic and foreign sales is undisturbed, but to purchase the raw material at a good price, this may prove problematic. Everybody has this kind of problems. This is not just about aluminum and the price, but silicon, for instance, resins, and other elements that are important for us to manufacture elements. These are the troubles that we have to face this year.
Next year, we plan to introduce new interesting products to our portfolio. Unfortunately, the situation forced us to shift this and postpone it until the next year. We have just one solution for window doors, and we hope this will be very popular, and other solutions will be presented in the future. Now just the sales. Well, traditionally, several selected buildings that we've recently won contracts for, just the city center of Warsaw that was actually won earlier. You can actually see how that is growing in Warsaw. This is a very positive effect in this situation where there is more demand for loans, and that translates onto small and medium-sized buildings, apartment buildings, family houses, single-family houses. Well, we can see that, and the effect is very good. The negatives.
Well, the unstable prices because one thing is the price of raw materials, but also the fluctuations, the lack of stability of prices means that the work on the market is destabilized. We cooperate with construction companies, the contracts are for many years. The situation on the market can destabilize the smooth work, and we are one of the elements of the whole process. We are forced to increase our prices. This year we had this increase twice already. Next year we will have another price increase. We will respond to the situation accordingly in the future. Now foreign sales, interesting photographs as well, some exotic markets. We are very happy about our presence that is growing on the markets that we've been present for many years. Belgium, the Netherlands. We have interesting situation in Ukraine and an interesting project here.
We are showing you the biggest Slovakian project. HB Reavis, this is our first project together, and they are doing one of the very big projects in Warsaw as well. We are very happy about this cooperation. We have a positive situation on new markets. I am talking about China, Vietnam, Algeria, Kuwait, and I hope that in the future, we will be able to tell you more about those markets and the situation on those markets. Similarly to our domestic market, no stable prices again, and that destabilizes the cooperation with our customers on European and world global markets. The whole situation connected with raw materials, with the prices, did not translate into worse results. As you probably saw that in our message, our segment in the third quarter and after the nine months, the growth is over 20% in each field.
Sales, domestic or foreign sales, also EBITDA grew and EBITDA margin grew as well. The structure sales breakdown by products, no big differences here. Over 60% of our sales is taken by our domestic sales, 60% architectural systems, the rest are external roller shutters and others. Now, investments. We would like to tell you that the construction of both halls in Opole and in Bielsko are almost finished. Opole has already all the furnitures. In Międzyrzecz, the hall has been accepted and now the equipment assembly has begun, and we plan to obtain an occupancy permit in January 2022. Thank you so much.
Now we are moving on to Flexible Packaging Segment, and Rafał Lechowicz will give us some information.
Welcome, ladies and gentlemen. Rafał Lechowicz, I represent Flexible Packaging Segment. Ladies and gentlemen, we've just completed the third quarter of 2021. Very good. Not as good as third quarter in 2020, when we were actually selling a lot because there was a lot of panic initially and a lot of purchases in the beginning of 2020. Well, the past quarter was very good, not just for us, but full of challenges connected with some shortages and the necessity to purchase the components that are necessary for our production. Well, we are operating in the times when the contracts may not mean a lot, and we can base only on the raw materials that are physically in our storages. Ladies and gentlemen, during the third quarter, the granulates prices became quite stable. These are our basic raw materials. However, the prices of other components is changing.
There is a lot of demand for polypropylene, BOPP foil is in high demand. This is very easy to recycle, for instance, and that is connected with the green pressures on the market. What is driving the BOPP foil well affects also other segments. We are under high pressure. This will be continued. During the third quarter, our segment grew the sales by 30% year-over-year. This is due to BOPP and the raw materials. EBITDA dropped. That is connected with a very high base in 2020 that was connected with the panic on the market. After nine months of this year, this parameter is higher by around 30% as compared to the past year. This is more already than in the record-setting high last year. EBITDA will be around PLN 280 million. The level seems to be not in threat.
As you can see in our table, with a high base of 2020, BOPP business did very well, 3% up. Packagings were not doing as good. This parameter dropped by 15%. Ladies and gentlemen, 50% share of BOPP in the total sales is continued, more exported goods than sold in Poland. In the future, we will still be under the pressure of highly processed products, this is connected with the structure and the green trends. More popular become less processed products. Simplified technological manufacturing process helps to compete successfully with big producers, small companies, resulting in a price war on the market. Well, a different situation is in BOPP segment, which is doing very fine and actually much better than the Packaging segment.
Ladies and gentlemen, as you can see, during the third quarter, the capacities grew, and they are nearly all at the level of 90%. The investment plan is continued according to the schedule. We are maintaining our manufacturing potential. That's all from me. Thank you so much.
Now we are moving on to the financial details, and Director Warpechowski will be presenting his materials.
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. As it was already said, the third quarter was a big challenge for us because of the fluctuations on the market, fluctuating macroeconomic factors. There was a strong demand in all our segments, therefore, sales was up by over PLN 300 million. EBITDA was PLN 245 million, which is higher year-on-year. There were no one-off significant events. There was a normal profit tax. Net profit was PLN 167 million plus 30%.
After 9 months, we've reached the level of PLN 466 million. That was again, a very good quarter, similar to the best one so far. According to our earlier forecasts and seeing the horizon until the end of the year, we've decided to correct the forecast for this year. According to the message from July, we increased our revenues by PLN 300 million, and EBITDA was increased by another PLN 90 million. EBITDA compared to last year is up by PLN 90 million. Extruded Products are responsible for at least half of it too. Aluminum products and packagings are also responsible for that. Net profit, as I've said, very good. Now cash flow. Well, operating cash flow is higher, PLN 132 million, but I need to say we've included the demand for the working capital.
That is all connected with the raw materials and the scale of our operation. CapEx around PLN 45 million. That will mean that during the fourth quarter we will spend more money, the expenditures will be higher and the cash flow in the third quarter, the lower diagram, we can see that the debt also grew. We are talking about PLN 300 million. This is all connected with the dividend payment. In previous years, well, the payments were happening in the fourth quarter, and now this is earlier and the debt grew. The financial situation is very secure, very stable. All levels are very stable and secure and because of the high EBITDA, the debt is PLN 800 million but the indicator, the net debt to EBITDA ratio is still 1, so very safe. We can see the financing structure with the stable financial structure.
Last year we also diversified the maturity deadlines so that our debts are not maturing in one quarter, so it will be more diversified. We are showing you how the debt changed throughout the nine months. Over PLN 300 million flows, PLN 700 million generated cash but over PLN 300 million we've spent on the working capital because of the growing scale of our operation and the growing prices of raw materials. We paid the tax and PLN 324 million was left out of operating. EBITDA PLN 430 million and the debt was on the level of PLN 840 million. Now moving on to the last part. This is our forecast. We can see that the forecast for the fourth quarter means that we expect that the fourth quarter will be better year-on-year by approximately 30%. The situation will be very tough.
We will have really high prices, but the demand is looking very good, so we believe that this will be a good quarter. Hence, if nothing new happens, the results will also be very good. We will have to base on our operations, on our capacities, to use the opportunities on the markets. Well, operations and investments, investment plan, it will also be a challenge, very important challenge for us because the spendings will be twice as high. Around PLN 100 million. The yearly forecast for CapEx, we will probably not use the whole PLN 180 million, but in total it will be around one-quarter of a billion. Loans will be renewed. I mentioned that we are starting a budget process under very difficult circumstances, so some changes to strategy.
We expect that the prices will be as high next year. As regards the strategy, we will have to spend more for investment plan. Thank you so much, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you.
Thank you for the presentations. We've actually finished the part dedicated to presentations. We will move on to the Q&A session. I have received several questions online in our chat box. I will read them and you will answer. The first question is as follows:
Historically, the fourth quarter has always been not as good. This is connected with the second half of December. Are you thinking that it will be changed? Maybe the situation will be standard?
Yes. The situation will be standard. It is always a period that gives us an opportunity to check our equipment. It will be a better quarter compared to last year.
Recently, we've heard that the passenger cars production manufacturing in Europe has been withheld. How will that affect the Extruded Products in the fourth quarter of 2021? Maybe if it is forwarded to next year, will that affect you?
A very good result this past quarter. Very good without automotive share. The manufacturing plants are not operating, we did quite very well. That's a positive information for us because automotive companies say that they would like to come back to production, we will see whether we have capacities for that. Without automotive, we were doing quite well, if automotive comes back, it will be fine as well.
Now, Flexible Packaging. How about the profitability reaching 19%? Will that be under pressure during the future quarters, maybe this is a normalized level for the future?
Well, it's hard for me to say what will happen in the next quarters, but we should not be under pressure in the nearest future. We are quite well-balanced. If one segment is not doing as well, well, the other one is working better. It's like with a way. If converting is not doing that well, then the raw materials are balancing that and doing better.
Another question.
Capacities that the segment already has, are they related mostly to packaging or maybe BOPP?
Well, the free capacities are only in packaging area. BOPP is fully booked.
Now financial question.
The increased interest rates, how that can affect the results of Grupa Kęty?
We are talking about 40 basis points. I guess this is all connected with our loans. Well, we are paying market interest rates, and it's not problematic at all.
What will be the growth of capacities in the Extruded Products Segment after the presses are launched?
Well, this investment will be also connected with some modernization. We are talking about 20%-25% growth. Slight increase in the first quarter. We are talking about 4,500 tons yearly availability since the first quarter. This is to increase the efficiency of work. We will be working with higher volumes and the end of year, November, new presses.
How about the parameter at the level of one, so the ratio, will that be maintained in 2022? Or maybe the ratio, EBITDA to net debt, will be higher next year?
Unfortunately, there are many factors involved here. We expect that the spendings will be higher next year. We will see what will happen. I said that mid-year or between the end of the year and the beginning of next year, we plan to finish this process, and we will actually inform you about it. According to our strategy, the levels should still be safe. It may grow with the CapEx, accumulated CapEx, and with the prices of raw materials. I need to remind you that the growths were happening during the third quarter, significantly, so we may not have a full picture here. Of course, as the CEO has said, with the profit PLN 560 million, well, this is all.
Okay, another question.
The current forecast for 2021 implies the EBITDA that was included in the strategy for 2025. Will you be updating the strategy objectives or maybe the result in 2021 should be treated as unique and the next year will not be as good?
Well, let's not say that the results this year are unique. We do not say it anymore because there are so many events happening, so the limitations in raw materials availability and capacities and so on, there are many elements involved. Because we were able to deal with this tough situation, we generated really high profits. On the other hand, for the future, we have to remember about the energy cost. This is the recent change, and this may actually impact the situation in the future.
Well, the next year's budget will be based on the objectives, current objectives, and premises. Well, if there are bigger differences, we will come back to the strategy. Well, a lot of things are happening quicker, so when talking about the yearly forecast, well, we will think about the strategy as well. This will not happen before mid-year next year.
Well, I don't really want to use the word unique because we were able to actually deal with it, that actually shows you the potential, how that may work. All the elements worked well for us, for our company, and, well, this may not be the situation next time. Let's wait with the strategy until next year so that we can announce something. I hope that the pandemic is actually ending because we have to remember about the pandemic because the fourth wave is hitting Poland, and we don't know how this will affect the market. Well, the question is good. This is actually a good question because we may stick to our strategy, we would like to achieve a better comfort when we talk about stabilization.
Now a technical question.
What is the average, in kilograms, the use of silicon and magnesium per ton of aluminum profile?
Magnesium, the hard alloys we're talking about, we buy around 20 tons of magnesium per month, and silicon, we must buy around 50, 60 tons, depending on the types of alloys, with 8,500 tons of sales. These are not really big values, but without 20 tons of magnesium, we will not be able to produce as much monthly. We are talking about monthly amounts, 20 tons monthly. 20 tons of magnesium monthly and 50, 60 tons of silicon. As compared to 8,500 tons of sales.
Again, a question for you.
Despite the growing prices of raw materials and other costs, the EBITDA per ton grew significantly. Is it because of hedging or cheaper inventories, or maybe the premium for processing?
If the prices are dropping, will EBITDA per ton decrease, improve, or stabilize? It depends on the scale, because this is a complex question. Of course, we have some inventories because we have to actually order everything earlier. We have to sign contracts ahead of time. That also affects our EBITDA. That is also connected with the prices that we increase. We match the situation on the market. We've done already several increases this year, an aggressive price policy on the market. We use the situation. There is high demand on the market. We increased our prices, and the prices already are very high. We are not planning with the prices farther than one quarter ahead. We observe the situation on the market well. This is the whole process of price increases, and we are talking about monthly increases, for instance.
We also heard about hedging, so earlier purchases. There is no speculation here. Of course, we have inventories, but they are rotating. For instance, billets that were used for production were, for instance, a little bit cheaper, but there is no speculation here. These are operational inventories only. In this EBITDA, you don't see any financial hedging effect. This is just our operation and work.
EBITDA margin on BOPP dropped by 15%. Is it a model kind of margin, or maybe we should expect more decreases to the level of 10, 15%?
We should not expect further decrease, and the margin is similar to last year, and it will be over 20% on the level of EBITDA. You have to remember that this is an export business, so we respond to the situation on the market. Sometimes the margin is 40% on EBITDA level, sometimes 13%. We do not follow just short periods like 3-month periods. In October, for instance, we expect that the margin will be 20%. Only good things are happening.
Could you tell us more about the price war on the market?
This is what I've said during my presentation. In packagings, there is a green trend, a simpler packaging is more popular. Highly processed, several-layer packagings are replaced by simpler, unified packaging driven by the green trends. We have more competitors because if there are more companies producing the same product, there always can be a price war. The price war is also the effect of surplus, production surplus on the market. We've dealt with the situation very well so far. We have a good balance between BOPP and packagings.
Now the question about energy and gas prices.
We'd like to hear your comments on the forecasts for 2022. What kind of expenditures are you planning to have? The budget has not been published yet, maybe we could hear what will be the percentage growth? What will be the scale?
Well, what we've seen in recent weeks on the markets are very dynamic changes, but we purchase gas and energy in advance, we break this down into tranches in order to stabilize the price for us. We continue this policy, and the growth will not fully translate onto our operations, but we are talking about PLN 50 million-PLN 60 million. If we treat the very high prices today as stable prices, so the missing hedging will be according to today's prices. We are partially secured until the third quarter. After the winter period, especially as regards gas, maybe the situation will improve.
What kind of salaries, what kind of growths are you expecting here?
Yes, on the budget level, 6%, one-digit growth, but not below 5%, surely. In August, Russian aluminum was supposed to come with a 15% duty.
Who's covering the cost, the buyer or the seller?
Well, the conditions that were given to us were very hard. Well, this is the situation on the Ukrainian market. We've only had this situation in Ukraine, well, 15% duty that affected us, and then we translated it into our clients. Yesterday, in Metal Courier, this is a Russian Metal Bulletin, they say that the duties will be removed as quickly. They'll be lifted.
Another question.
How about the guarantees? The fluctuations in additives, can they affect the consistency of production, volume of production?
Well, we are safe here. 80% of magnesium on the European market comes from China. The question is, there are inventories in Europe. We cooperate with five suppliers. Until the end of the year, we are not afraid of the situation because we have inventories, and then we will see what will happen with this high price and what will happen in China. So far, continued work.
Taking into account the price fluctuations, availability fluctuations of aluminum, and potential problems for companies processing aluminum. If there are any opportunities to take over such companies, will you take that into account? Or do you stick to the idea of the fourth leg of your business, taking into account the relatively low level of debt?
We are checking our suppliers because when we talk about billets, this is the problem, the supply problem. Recently, a billet-producing company has been closed down recently. The competitors. Flexible approach to the market. If there is an opportunity, a good opportunity, then we can think it through, definitely. They must have really good technology, good plant, so that we can deal with it. New and cheap. This has to be a very good opportunity and flexible approach to investments. This is what we have. We keep watching the situation. The fourth leg. In general, the same applies. We have several projects on the table, and this is what we are going through. I can't really say anything right now because we are not involved in anything specific right now. Thank you.
Another question.
Should we expect that the volumes will grow in the fourth quarter across all segments?
Yes.
Director Lechowicz, did you hear the question? We've heard that the volumes will be higher in their segments. How about the packagings? Can we expect higher volumes as compared to last year?
No, not in packaging, propylene, yes.
Now the question for Aluminium Systems.
How about the clients? Do they accept higher prices? Where is the threshold that will result in smaller demand and more demand for substitutes?
We believe that there is a threshold for the growth of prices, while the biggest problem is the contracts that are signed several months ahead because it's very hard to introduce a price increase. This is where we have the biggest problems. The client who continuously sells the product translates that directly into end customer quite successfully. Today, there is no tendency that the customers who were able to pay for aluminum product and give it up and to go for cheaper wood, for instance, or plastic. We don't see that, but it may happen that the retail customer says no, or a customer who would like to build office building will not be able to do it with the prices.
There is a threshold, but we will see how high. How about the current situation in construction industry? Does that affect you?
No. Well, against all odds in our segment, well, the flow has been really the best in years.
Are there any problems with the availability of subcontractors?
I can only say that only what I hear from our customers as far as I know when it comes to the assembly companies, the situation has not changed. It's not worse nor better. Our customers are the subcontractors. They have quite a lot of work. There is no huge problem there. Thank you so much.
That was the last question from our chat. There are no other questions that were emailed to me. That means that we've exhausted the Q&A session. I'd like to thank you so much. I'd like to thank our viewers, I'd like to thank our Management Board. Again, I'd like to, as usual, I'd like to invite you to the next presentation after the fourth quarter. Thank you so much, ladies and gentlemen, and goodbye.