Pepco Group N.V. (WSE:PCO)
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May 6, 2026, 5:00 PM CET
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Earnings Call: H1 2025

May 22, 2025

Stephan Borchert
Group CEO, Pepco Group

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to this Pepco H1 result call. I'm Stephan Borchert, the Group CEO of Pepco Group, and I'm here with my Group CFO, Willem Eelman, whom some of you have already met at the CMD. Today, we'll talk about our H1 fiscal year 2025 results and a short update on our progress against the value creation plan presented at the CMD. We're now turning to page three of the presentation. What are the key messages of this H1 result call? First, Pepco Opco delivering on objectives. H1 EBITDA growth of +11% ahead of sales growth, with trading momentum continuing into Q3. Measures taken by new management under Barry Williams to improve Poundland performance, and Group continues actively exploring a potential investment of Poundland with separation expected by end of fiscal 2025.

Strong group balance sheet with EUR 150 million improvement in net debt position to EUR 279 million, 0.6x leverage. Fiscal year 2025 guidance for Pepco and Dealz maintained, but weaker outlook for Poundland. We're turning to page four. Please allow me to take a minute on recapping our CMD. As presented to you at the CMD, we have structured our value creation plan into five distinct pillars. First, simplify and streamline the Group portfolio. Secondly, continue to grow in CEE. Thirdly, win in Western Europe. Fourth, drive like-for-like sales by refocusing and digitizing our customer value proposition. And number five, upgrade our core platforms. We're making good progress on all five pillars. We will highlight a couple of them in the course of this presentation. We're turning to page five.

Now, apart from the adverse situation in Poundland, we see that new Pepco, as defined at the Capital Markets Day, has started to deliver on its objectives. Half one has shown positive momentum with revenue growth of 9% year-on-year, driven by strong volume growth based on our recent price investments, with an ongoing positive like-for-like momentum in H1 at +2.3% year-on-year, continuing positively into Q3, albeit partly benefiting from the timings of Easter. We've continued to defend our closing market share in Poland and have kept our gross margin stable at 48%. EBITDA growth was at 9% year-on-year. While we are within our fiscal year 2025 guidance, our ambition is, of course, to see higher operating leverage going forward. You've heard me talking about our volume growth.

Our price investment has started to show successful impact over the half-year, driving volume and leg-by-leg recovery at Pepco. This volume has, of course, to be handled operationally. Due to this year's wage inflation, we see a slight investment in operating costs in H1 impacting EBITDA. Our focus on H2 remains in creating higher operating leverage. EBIT growth for new Pepco is slightly behind full-year run rate due to one-off strategic investments in corporate, which will not repeat in H2. Please remember that new Pepco includes corporate cost. Supporting this, EBIT for Pepco banner is actually up 10% year-on-year. In addition, we have opened 106 net new stores in H1. As you know from past years, our store opening pipeline is accelerating in H2. We are now turning to page six. We continue to see improving leg-by-leg performance in our CEE markets.

Pepco Poland's leg-by-leg performance, however, is behind other CEE markets, albeit with an improving tendency. We are not fully satisfied with the situation and have taken further measures on strengthening management capacity, focusing on the store network modernization and in particular on the identified set of select underperforming stores, improving availability as well as marketing intensity. Just to put some flavor to this, excluding the select set of underperforming stores, our leg-by-leg revenue growth year-to-date April would be + 1.7%. With Q3 starting well, year-to-date total revenue growth is positive in low single digits, and our focus lies on further improvements for leg-by-leg revenue performance in H2. We're turning to page seven. We've made significant progress in short time on Western Europe. To recall, we are operating 586 stores in five markets, with Spain and Italy being the biggest by far.

Our concerted efforts have resulted in a strong leg-by-leg revenue growth quarter-on-quarter in H1 2025, and we see continued progress going forward in Q3. We announced the conversion of our Pepco Plus stores to regular stores at the CMD. This is well on track, and all existing Pepco Plus stores, except for a very minimal number of closures, will be converted by end of fiscal year 2025. So far, all converted stores are meeting or exceeding our revenue and store EBITDA expectations. Turning to page eight, I mentioned the launch of a digital agenda as part of our value creation plan at the CMD. We have since further detailed our implementation plan, and some core capabilities are expected to go live before the end of fiscal year, and we will continue to update you on progress.

Page nine, as part of our strategic plan to shift away from FMCG and focus on Pepco only, we have made progress with the separation of Dealz. The business has performed well in H1 2025, with revenues up 15% and EBITDA up 25% year-on-year. We have started to implement various work streams to optimize the value of this company and to create a self-sufficient setup. We are now going to page ten. We have informed you at the CMD on our intention to separate Poundland from our group. Despite the continued weak performance of Poundland, this process is advancing with a select number of bidders, still with the target of an exit within the current fiscal year. I will now hand over to Willem, who will talk about our financial performance in more detail. Willem, hand over to you.

Willem Eelman
Group CFO, Pepco Group

Next page, please. Let's move to page 12. Good morning to all in the conference call. Some of you I've already met at the Capital Markets Day in March this year or in meetings since. For those of you that I haven't met, I'm happy to meet you in this virtual way. My name is Willem Eelman, and I started as Group CFO at Pepco in November, in February this year, and it has been a very interesting time with the team. Stephan has already shared with you the progress for our strategy as presented at the CMD. I will now focus on the result which we have delivered in the first half of 2025. This page shows the key financial highlight at both Pepco Group level as well as the constituent parts of our business.

We're very pleased with the progress made in our Pepco and Dealz banners, where we see continued top-line growth with a blend between like-for-like and inorganic growth driven by store openings. Gross margins continue to expand compared to prior year, and we have seen a solid drop-through of gross margin into EBITDA post-IFRS 16. This contrasts with the performance in our Poundland banner, where we continue to see negative like-for-like persisting in the first half of the year. As Stephan has explained earlier, measures are being taken to address the weakness in part of the merchandise ranges and sell-out of non-performing and phased-out stock as we prepare for new merchandise consistent with the Poundland heritage for later this year. Next page, please.

Leg-by-leg growth in both Pepco and Dealz continues to show robust results with a material step-up to the negative growth we experienced in 2024, as clearly laid out on this slide. Let me now focus on the margin performance. On the next slide, gross margin improved 30 basis points to 43.3% for the period. This consists of two materially different performances, where Pepco and Dealz show an improvement in gross margin by respectively 180 basis points and 150 basis points, offsetting a material decline in Poundland by 430 basis points. The performance of Poundland was the result of adverse mix and markdowns linked to the stock clearance program together with lower volume-driven rebates. Next slide. Before Poundland, gross margin improved from 43.1- 44.5 in aggregate. Material contributors were improved intake margins reflecting positive negotiation outcomes from our buying teams and forex for both banners.

In addition, Pepco benefited from a one-off reclassification of a consumption tax into SG&A, approximately 50 basis points benefit in gross margin, with an offsetting negative in SG&A cost. An increased cost relating to the Red Sea challenges in the prior period. The impact of the 430 basis points decline in gross margin at Poundland, as I explained earlier, then represents a 130 basis points reduction at group level to 43.3%, an improvement year-on-year by 30 basis points. Next slide, please. First half underlying EBITDA post-IFRS 16 of EUR 460 million declined by -5.5% versus the first half fiscal year 2024 at EUR 487 million, driven by the performance in Poundland. Excluding Poundland, EBITDA would have been EUR 438 million, up 9.5% on prior half-year period, reflecting the top-line growth in Pepco and Dealz and gross margin expansion of 170 basis points across the two banners.

This was partly offset by increases in the store cost base, which I will comment on the next slide. Corporate cost was up by EUR 10 million from the same period last year, driven by investments behind the strategic initiatives in line with the strategy presented to you at the Capital Markets Day. We expect this to normalize going forward. Next slide. We have implemented a resetting pricing, driving our discount credentials and offering great prices for our customers, further strengthening our price leadership vis-à-vis competition. This has resulted year-to-date in a material volume growth above revenue growth. This is a cost driver for store and distribution costs. To underscore, in H1, we see a volume growth in pieces in our Pepco banner of 14%, with a -5% average unit price decline resulting in our reported 9% revenue growth.

In addition, relatively high salary increases driven by wage rate increases, particularly in CEE and store openings, are also two drivers in the operating cost line. Next page, please. SG&A were tightly controlled with an underlying increase of 2%, well below salary and other cost inflation. Reported SG&A is impacted, as I already indicated, by a EUR 10 million shift relating to revenue taxes, which has been reclassified. Next slide, please. On a 12-month basis, the business has continued to deleverage, with net debt reducing by EUR 150 million, driven by an unlevered free cash flow of EUR 165 million. Gross debt was reduced by EUR 30 million- EUR 620 million, with the cash balance increasing from EUR 221 million- EUR 341 million at the close of H1 2025.

The delivery of an unlevered free cash flow of EUR 165 million in the LTM25 underscored the progress we're making in disciplined capital allocation and is a good step towards our guidance provided in the Capital Markets Day for 2026 onwards of a sustainable unlevered free cash flow delivery exceeding EUR 200 million. There was an ambulance passing by. Next slide, please. Pepco Group continues to have a strong balance sheet with a net debt position of EUR 279 million at H1 fiscal year 2025, or a 0.6 leverage ratio pre-IFRS 16. A further progress from the same position at H1 2024, which stood at 1.0x . We're currently reviewing our financial structure, financing structure, and aim to address the financing cost and maturity profile of our external debt in the coming periods.

At the Capital Markets Day in March 2025, the Board announced it had authorized a share buyback capability of up to EUR 200 million to be available for use during fiscal 2025 and 2027. This allows the Board to consider the potential buyback of shares from time to time in accordance with the relevant authorization from the general meeting. We are currently actively reviewing with advisors the implementation of the share buyback program, considering the type of buyback best served in the Polish stock market and quantum and timing of any such program. We expect to provide a further update on this in due course. Next slide, please. Pepco and Dealz continue to deliver strong growth momentum in line with objectives.

At the CMD in March 2025, we outlined the expectation that the Pepco business would see full year 2025 revenue and underlying EBITDA year-on-year growth in the high single digits, which remain unchanged. Similarly, Dealz is also expected to deliver in line with previous disclosure, with full year EBITDA of around EUR 30 million. For Poundland, the business continues to face further trading challenges since the CMD, resulting in a revised outlook for the current financial year. Poundland now expects to deliver underlying full year 2025 EBITDA of around EUR 0 million-EUR 20 million, compared to previous guidance of EUR 50 million-EUR 70 million. The downgrade relates to highly challenging trading conditions, which have been further impacted by clearance of old stock and product availability issues. A turnaround plan is underway to rebuild on our core heritage category strength, particularly in general merchandise, while focusing on simpler in-store offer and price points.

In terms of store numbers in full year 2025, we're now targeting to open approximately 250 net stores across the Group, with new stores principally focusing on the Pepco brand and primarily in the CEE region. I now hand back to Stephan.

Stephan Borchert
Group CEO, Pepco Group

Thank you very much, Willem. Yeah, we go to the next chart, new Pepco medium-term ambition from 2026 onwards. As we already guided at the Capital Markets Day, we're looking at a revenue growth of at least 7% CAGR and an EBITDA growth of at least 9% CAGR for new Pepco. We confirm a gross margin of 48%, and we intend to open around 250 net new stores per annum. We aim at a greater than EUR 200 million free cash flow in euros, sorry, and a CapEx of EUR 160 million-EUR 180 million per annum. With that, our leverage, we're aiming at no higher than one and a half times pre-IFRS 16. Next chart, if I then may summarize our H1. We are strongly believing that Pepco and Dealz are delivering on our objectives.

Our Board and the Group are actively exploring Poundland separation options, and we expect an exit by or before the end of fiscal year 2025. I have a strong balance sheet with EUR 150 million year-on-year improvement in H1 on net debt, and we focus and continue to focus on shareholder returns with the just eluded EUR 200 million share buyback capability during fiscal year 2025 to fiscal year 2027. In summary, we are executing at pace against the new strategic framework with strong focus on sustainable value creation, and we are now open for the Q&A. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question on today's call, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. Again, that is star one for your questions today. We will pause for a brief moment. Our first question today comes from James Anstead from Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

James Anstead
Managing Director of Equity Research, Barclays

Good morning, Stephan. Willem, just one question from me regarding Poland. You mentioned the size of impact on sales growth of the underperforming stores in that market. Can you give any idea of how many stores would be in that underperforming group? Is there anything those stores have in common, whether it is the type of location or the age of the stores? Any color would be very interesting. Thank you.

Stephan Borchert
Group CEO, Pepco Group

Hi, James. Thank you very much, Stephan. Yeah, look, I mean, as Poland is an absolute focus for us, we really look deeply into this. We have identified a select number of stores, and we do have a pattern. It is clear with a portfolio of above 1,300 shops in such a country that there is a bit of internal cannibalization happening. Also, we are clear that we will accelerate our touch-up and modernization program there. We see that is one of the reasons. Please, rest assured, we have clearly identified the number. It's not a very large number in the big scheme of things, but it's a number that is now being addressed with a very intense focus.

James Anstead
Managing Director of Equity Research, Barclays

Okay, that's very helpful. Thank you.

Stephan Borchert
Group CEO, Pepco Group

You're welcome.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question now comes from Alison Lygo from Deutsche Numis. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Alison Lygo
Director of Retail Equity Research, Deutsche Numis

Thank you. Good morning. I was wondering if I could just ask a little bit more in terms of the regional color. Following on from Poland, obviously, it's a bit of a divergent like-for-like performance as we look across the Pepco regions. I'm wondering if you could talk a bit more about how you're sort of seeing the differences in terms of competitive environment across those markets and any differences really you're seeing in the consumer in the way they're behaving at the moment. Thank you.

Stephan Borchert
Group CEO, Pepco Group

Thank you, Alison. Yeah, of course, operating in countries, it is definitely a difference there. We see a quite strong performance in the southern part of CEE, and as you also see now in Western Europe, Italy, and Spain in particular. I would think that consumer sentiment surely is impacted by the political elements, whether that is Poland or Romania and others, also Germany. Overall, we feel very well positioned with our price-leading concept to also operate and serve customers in uncertain times. Clearly, Poland, we pointed out because that is an operational topic we're going to put focus on. Overall, we feel that all countries we are operating in right now, with a bit different stages of maturity, right, but are performing well and have also the chance of performing well in the future. No major elements to point out really, I would say.

Alison Lygo
Director of Retail Equity Research, Deutsche Numis

Great. Thank you. Could I just ask one more if that's okay? A lot of the story, if we look back a year or so, was around improving the sort of age and the quality of inventory coming through. How are you feeling about that as we stand today?

Stephan Borchert
Group CEO, Pepco Group

Yeah, it's a good question. I think we've guided last year, or we've stated last year on a major stock clearance due to all the disruptions we had with Red Sea and everything. This has, of course, smoothed out better. I also discussed at the Capital Markets Day that we have to further improve on our end-to-end value chain efficiency, and that's what we are doing. Overall, we feel that in terms of stock freshness, we are making progress. There is, of course, more to do, and we are implementing IT support and all these kinds of things. Overall, making progress, we are in control of our inventory and of our buying processes.

Alison Lygo
Director of Retail Equity Research, Deutsche Numis

Grand. Thank you. Just final one for me, if that's okay. In light of, I guess, the disruption we've sort of seen to China-U.S. sort of trade relations and what's happened there, I suppose one of the themes we're seeing a reasonable amount is in terms of the potential opportunity for European operators to be seeing sort of better factory gate prices. I'm just wondering whether that's something you're benefiting from, something where you see a kind of potential opportunity.

Stephan Borchert
Group CEO, Pepco Group

Yeah, no, good question. I mean, I would say, first of all, there's no direct impact on us, really. We are not operating stores in the U.S. and things like that. We are closely monitoring the transport side of things there because with the temporary spikes of reshipping into the U.S. and so on, that is definitely a topic we have, but it's by far not as serious as it was at the Red Sea situation. We feel we are in control there. On the FOB opportunities, look, I think Pepco has long-lasting supplier relationships in China, and we have always managed to create more efficiencies. As we said at the CMD, we're going to reinvest sourcing efficiencies into either price or quality of our product.

I think temporarily, there are some opportunities for European retailers, I would say, but I'm not sure how long-lasting that really would be. Therefore, I wouldn't put too much emphasis on it.

Alison Lygo
Director of Retail Equity Research, Deutsche Numis

Grand. That's really helpful. Thank you very much.

Stephan Borchert
Group CEO, Pepco Group

You're welcome.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, that is star one if you would like to ask a question today. Star one. We will pause for another brief moment. We just received another question from Peter Drozd from Verition Fund Management. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Peter Drozd
Analyst, Verition Fund Management

Yes, hello. Thank you for the call. I have two questions. The first one would be a bit more broad. I mean, I do wonder if you've had any interactions with Pepco South Africa and whether there are any material synergies you would see with that business in terms of the sourcing. I mean, this used to be one entity. If we think more broadly about the Steinhoff stakes, whether you could offer any views on if a tie between the companies could make operationally any sense. That's one question. The other one, maybe just a bit more color on the Poundland transaction. Obviously, we've seen the press allude to a number of potential buyers, and the commitment is to carve out Poundland by the end of the year, financial year.

Any more comments on that would be very helpful just for us to expect and how this plays out. Thank you.

Stephan Borchert
Group CEO, Pepco Group

Yeah, thank you, Peter, for your questions. Let me start on Pepco. I have to say there are really zero connections, neither on any financial level or on any operational level. I can't really comment and to say I think Pepco has probably also developed and evolved over time in the South African market. I can't really comment on it, to be honest. On Poundland, yeah, as I said before, look, we as a group are determined to proceed with our strategic directions to focus everything on Pepco going forward. Please accept that the process is at the moment very confidential and ongoing. In this respect, I can't comment much on it, but the Group is determined to find a solution for the best possible solution for the Group and for Poundland. We are advancing there, but I can't comment with further detail, really.

Peter Drozd
Analyst, Verition Fund Management

Understood. Thank you very much.

Stephan Borchert
Group CEO, Pepco Group

You're welcome.

Operator

Thank you. If there are currently no further questions, I'd like to hand the call back over to you, Mr. Borchert, for any additional or closing remarks.

Stephan Borchert
Group CEO, Pepco Group

Yeah, just thank you very much for your interest. Thanks for dialing into our H1 result call, and have a great day. Thank you very much.

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