I want to thank all of my panelists for joining, kick it off. Ida, I would love to start with you. As you sit at the center of capital from Hong Kong to the Gulf to New York, what does the world actually look like for your clients today?
Volatility is absolutely the new normal. As you can see, the last period of time post-COVID has been incredibly volatile for investors. In fact, the VIX has been up in the 20s, whereas in the prior decade it was in the low teens. Volatility is absolutely the new normal, but we're looking at three fundamental shifts in what's happening around the world. Number one, very important to have geographic diversification globally for investors. Today, the U.S. market makes up 65% of the global market index, so really thinking about diversification opportunities, especially given the bifurcation of U.S. and China.
Seondly looking at the unstoppable trends, you're gonna hear so much about AI, about technology here at Milken. It's important not to just think about AI itself, but AI and its, all of its peripheral industries as well. Think about the data centers behind it, the brains behind AI, the semiconductor side, as well as looking at the energy needed to sustain the growth in AI, looking at clean energy and alternative energy solutions as well. In addition to healthcare, which is an incredibly high-growing industry, especially given the aging population and the telemedicine.
The new generations are gonna live 10, 15, 20 years longer than all of us, so there's a lot of implications for that as well. Third, and very importantly, as Maneet said, where the wealth is heading. We're in the midst of the largest wealth transfer in history. $100 trillion is passing hands to next gen, to millennial. $30 trillion of that is going to women. This has massive implications on portfolio allocation and the way investors are investing, but I'm super optimistic about the future.
I'd love to hear from the rest of the panelists. I know I started off with Ida, but I saw you nodding. Why don't you jump in?
Oh, sure. Thank you. Ida, those are terrific comments, and we think that aligns with a lot of us here on the panel in a sense. One of the things that Abacus really focuses on is what you touched on, which was lifespan and longevity and the impacts of that to what financial planning looks like, what private wealth looks like. You know, it's really interesting to me just more generally, I'm reminded 20 years ago I saw Michael Milken present, and he was talking about why the United States doesn't have a bullet train. He goes, "It's, it's not the fact that we don't have the technology or the wherehow-
Mm-hmm.
... to build a bullet train. It's the tracks. When I think about private wealth going forward, we're focused on the tracks that have been established for a long period of time, and we think incorporating health, incorporating longevity into that plan is going to be probably the most biggest and most important piece when we look at what happens in private wealth and financial planning going forward. I'll leave you guys with this one stat, and I want everyone to comment on separate things.
You know, whenever I stand up in front of a group, I always tell them a couple fun things that they should be thinking about. Most of us think we are gonna live forever. I think as medical science stands today, that's probably not true. No one has. You know, there's never been a centenarian over 6 ft tall until Dick Van Dyke. Media got it wrong, and they should've been talking about that, right?
I got a financial plan put to me that took me all the way to age 95. You know how many 6 ft 5 in 95-year-olds have ever lived or existed in human history? Zero. I think that we need to really start adopting things that are really matter that people can really focus on. We have an incredibly low savings rate in the U.S. for retirement, and I think that we need to think about what really matters to people when they get there.
I think maybe one point that Ida made about markets and volatility, I think that, you know, there really hasn't been a major pullback since the financial crisis at all.
Mm.
Although there has been volatility, I do think there is a little bit of complacency around risk, and I think you're starting to see kind of what that means as different challenges ripple through, you know, parts of both public and private markets. The opportunities are immense, but it's really hard to find real diversification right now.
Taking that a step further though, in terms of geographic diversification that's showing up in portfolios, not just the rhetoric, Ida, what are you seeing?
As the U.S. and China, the first and second largest economies in the world, continue to bifurcate, there's a changing supply chain that's happened around the world, which therein creates opportunities for investors as you see some of the capital flows moving into Southeast Asia, for example, into India, into Japan. Having that diversification is gonna be incredibly important because as U.S. investors sitting here in the U.S., you tend to have a U.S. home bias.
As I just said, the U.S. markets are overweight the global market index, 65% are U.S. companies. As you think about the shifts, the acceleration of growth, the bifurcation that's happening, and the changing supply chains around the world, there are definitely opportunities for investors to think more globally, more diversified, not just about geographies, but also as you think about your currency exposures as well.
Anybody else wanna weigh in on the? Yeah.
Yeah, I think that's a super important point you make because we have to think global in these days, and that's basically what we do at EQT as being a global investor, being European by origin, coming from a family heritage. I think there's a few points that's was made here in terms of just how do you invest, how should you invest as an individual. There's also someone who has to do it, who is making the investments-
Right.
... and that's I guess what we are here for on the GP side. We very much agree what you said, Ida. Be global. Think about themes, big themes like energy transition. Energy transition's going to last for the next 10- 15 years at least, and it's going to need billions of dollars to make that happen. It's super important that we get behind these big trends and put them in the portfolio of our clients, but of course somebody has to do it.
Mm-hmm.
David, I'd love to get your quick snapshot on the big picture as well.
Oh, sorry, what was that?
I'd love to get your quick snapshot on the global landscape as well.
Yeah, I mean, I think that they make great points about diversification. I think one thing that I've always looked at is how we measure diversification. I think that domicile isn't the best way to think about it, and things like revenue and cash flows are better way to think about the benefit of different investments as part of a portfolio.
Shifting now to retirement preparedness, I wanna talk to you a little bit about the gap between what people have and what they'll actually need. This is something that you spend a lot of your time on.
You know, there's a lot of perspectives out there around retirement, and I think that most people aren't where they should be. We just did a survey last year and found that, like, 90% of respondents thought they were kind of on track for retirement, but only 30% had a financial plan. I think the issue is that Americans, as Jay noted, aren't saving enough for retirement. I don't think we have a retirement crisis. Someone might disagree with me here.
You know, if you look at the measures of retirement outcomes, people when they retire, at least in the U.S., are better off than they were. I'm not focused so much on the gap that's there or improving it. I think a larger issue is just decumulation. Giving people a pot of money when they retire and say, "Hey, go spend this," that's not working. I think that as we advance retirement globally, we've got to think about how do we help people actually decumulate their wealth to have the retirement they want.
How should we be thinking about it? Can you take it a step further?
I mean, I think that my example is you can't really turn ants into grasshoppers, right? If you spend 30 or 40 years of your life accumulating wealth, and at least in the U.S. you get a statement every quarter that has your balance on it, you don't wanna spend that balance. I think getting people into a spending mindset, into a lifetime income mindset, that eases that burden. I've done some research that talks about people, they don't spend their savings. They don't spend wage income, capital income, any of that. They spend lifetime income.
Mm.
How we frame and create solutions for investors, it needs to move beyond just, like, spreadsheets and projections to say, "Hey, behaviorally what actually moves the needle on spending, that's things like lifetime income.
You're nodding, Peter.
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah.
I couldn't agree more.
Yeah.
I couldn't agree more, Ryder. I think that's a super important point you're making. But I think there's a link between the way you make it happen, i.e., the vehicles, the plans, and so forth, the education that you need to do, then the investments. They have to go hand in hand because if you don't have the investments to make it happen, and if you don't have the plans and the education also to make it happen, you don't get the right outcome. There's has to be that balance.
That's why I think it's such an important point we're in right now for the globe that we actually get that right, so both we get the education right for the private individual, be that the young generation or the elderly generation in decumulation, but also the investments, take out the volatility in the market. No one likes looking at the volatility in the stock markets today. Going more private, longer term, and have that long-term mindset, that's really what is needed.
Can I add something to that?
Yeah. Please, please.
Just quick.
Yeah.
You go.
No, go. Go ahead.
It's just you're right. I guess my question is what drives the investment? What's the fundamental decision we should be making to say how I should allocate, right? That's when I keep coming back that if we're not looking at health, right, we're not looking at longevity and lifespan, right? When someone's thinking about this and they're saying, "Hey, I want income for life," what does that actually mean? Most people take too little income because they don't know how long they're gonna actually live. Number one fear in retirement is running out of money.
Yeah.
How are we not. This goes to ultra-high net worth.
Mm-hmm.
Everybody feels this way. They don't spend, David, you're right, and they should be. Right? People are taking 4% withdrawals. That's broken. It should be eight or 10 in some cases. We literally medically underwrite everyone, and we break it down to say, "This is actually what your probabilistic lifespan is," right? We're gonna talk about this massive $100 trillion transfer of wealth. Wouldn't it be nice to know when that's gonna occur? Right? Like, that's the types of things we should be dealing with. We would do a lot of work with pension funds and help them better understand unfunded liabilities-
Mm-hmm.
... because that's just a mortality distribution curve is all it is. I think that as we think about the tracks, right, as Mike pointed out, I think it should indicate things like part of the tracks are incorporating technologies and AIs and what all those things, global asset allocation. When I look at the pillars of where we're going with private wealth, the pillar is going to be health, and pillar applies to women, pillar applies to transfer of wealth, it applies to millennials. These are the things that they actually care about, and if we're not providing that information, we'll never get to the investments.
Jed, do you have a comment?
Jed, yeah.
Yeah, I mean, I was gonna make a comment on the investment side. I do think both in the accumulation phase and the decumulation phase, the broadening out of the capabilities that you have to help people solve those long-term goals is really important, and the rules there are in the process of changing. I mean, we've been investing in direct real estate in our target date funds for, you know, 20 years.
Yeah.
You have to do it with an eye towards what are the risks, what's happened when things go wrong, how do you manage an illiquid asset into something that offers daily liquidity. It's, I think it's a positive that that opportunity set is expanding. The DOL right now is in comment period around expanding the usage of kind of all sorts of alternative strategies in defined contribution plans, and I think that can support those longer term goals in both the accumulation phase and the-
Right.
... and the decumulation phase.
Real quick, Jed.
Yes.
Huge fan of the private real estate and target date funds.
Mm-hmm.
Just to push back gently on what Jay said. The American College did a survey that was completed 27 days ago, 3,000 U.S. consumers. Longevity risk was the fourth highest risk cited, no matter how you slice the data: age, income, and wealth. The number one risk was inflation, followed by healthcare expenses, and this emerging threat, which is U.S. changes to pension policy. Like, I agree that objectively longevity risk is the biggest thing to worry about when it comes to solving retirement for someone.
A problem we have though is it's not top of mind for retirees. I think that like, yes, it's a big deal, but the problem is we create solutions just focused on longevity risk, like the QLACs or deferred income annuities, longevity insurance. It's not going to be attractive for consumers or advisors because it's not what they're focused on when it comes to figuring out how to solve retirement.
But could the answer actually-
Yeah, Peter.
I like what you're saying-
Yeah.
...volatility and why people are not spending money. Could the answer just, this might be interesting, could the answer just be because everyone looks at the volatility in the public market, so they don't wanna spend?
Yeah.
Right-
Sure.
... our obligation is to take that mindset out, so the headline, the clickbait of the volatility of the stock market is out, and put money to bed in long-term investments.
Yeah.
David, I wanna follow up with you on a second. Help me out-
Decumulation. It's a fun word to say.
...cumulation. Fun word to say.
Yeah.
You write a lot about this. Is the U.S. individualization of retirement a global story, or do you feel that we're exporting our problem?
You know, we export lots of problems, I guess you could say that. I don't know. I don't think so. I think that, you know, I say that retirement is the most important purchase that most people will ever make, right? It's gonna cost millions of dollars. I think that when people ask themselves, like, "How much do I need?" That is a personal question, right? I think everyone wants a portfolio, a strategy, a plan that applies to them.
Mm-hmm.
I think that the movement towards defined contribution is, it's this global phenomenon. As I mentioned, I think that that's probably the right place for most people. I think that defined benefit plans aren't necessarily the best way to solve retirement for most people. I think that we do need to address some of the problems that emerge as we create this pot of money that folks just aren't spending.
Ida, you're nodding.
I just think that everything that's been said has been absolutely spot on. I think just taking a step back from our vantage point, working with some of the largest families around the world, is there's really two points that matter. It's when you get in and when you get out.
Mm-hmm.
Many of our clients are incredibly sophisticated global investors, and we've just gotta make sure that we're educating, we've said that a lot on the panel already, educating, empower, elevating their knowledge and awareness about how to achieve their life goals. In fact, HSBC puts out a Global Wealth Entrepreneurship Survey, and the number one concern on most of our clients' minds was, "What's gonna be my legacy?"
You know, "How am I gonna think about passing the wealth responsibly to the next generation, future generations, and how do I educate, how do I make sure they're well prepared?" Again, it goes a little bit beyond, you know, the specifics of what we're talking about here, but taking a step back, looking at global architecture of portfolios. You, no two clients are ever the same. We've just gotta make sure that we understand the each of the family's goals, purposes, ambition, and really help craft a portfolio that's endurable and sustainable for the long term.
That leads me to my next question about the advisor's job. Is it fundamentally different today than five years ago? You know, I think you guys have this 30,000 ft view, but then you're speaking to one-to-one to this incredible global client base across all of your firms. I'm curious to hear what the feedback is to them and how you're advising clients differently.
I'm not sure the goals are different. They're definitely more complicated when you're dealing with people living to 100 and 120.
Mm-hmm.
I think, you know, Ida talking about legacy and planning, I think the goals are similar. I think the tools that advisors have changed dramatically. I think that's across both public and private markets. You can start with, you know, ETFs. You know, $20 trillion ETF market. It's gonna be another year of record flows, record issuance, and record volumes.
Mm-hmm.
ETFs were synonymous with passive. You know, the passive industry is now over $20 trillion. It's quadrupled in the last five years. Active ETFs are now 10% of the ETF market and growing at about 30%-40% a year.
Wow.
ETF market is changing, and it's probably gonna be a $50 trillion industry by 2030, which is about $10 trillion-$15 trillion ahead of where people thought it would be. And then private markets, I mean, these are U.S. numbers and, you know, very similar to what's happening in Europe. You know, about five years ago there were about 200 strategies if you looked at interval funds, tender offer funds, kind of more advisor, retail-oriented strategies. Now we're launching about 100 of those every year, so 500 more in the last five years. You could argue that more choice is good.
Mm-hmm.
I will tell you, it does make it a little bit harder for, you know, the advisor and the consultant. I think you're gonna see returns kind of pushed together in the median in the middle, and then you'll have your high performers on the top quartile and the bottom performers. The spread in these asset classes is wider than any in normal periods versus public markets.
Mm.
It really widens out when things are challenging. Again, we haven't had a real prolonged challenging period-
Mm-hmm.
... since, you know, since the GFC. The goals and things I think are similar. The tools though that advisors have to solve them have changed a lot.
How do you deal with that on the advisor side? How are you-
I mean.
... dealing with that?
I do think, like one of your questions later, I'll-
Yeah
... foreshadow it, around, you know, what I think will change in five years. I think more will be centrally managed and kind of professionally allocated, you know, portfolio construction, risk management, stress testing, you know, all of those things that go into building something that's sustainable and diversified for the longer term, versus choosing manager A versus manager B.
So I would-
And, you know, just to-
Go ahead.
Sorry.
No, just to jump in quickly on that, what's changing, continues to change, is the evolution of AI.
Mm-hmm.
The efficiency that we're recognizing in the wealth management industry more broadly. It's going to be much easier for us to educate, right. Now we have AI to assist with that. We have so many processes that are becoming much more efficient on behalf of our teams around the world, the efficiency of dealing with our clients, the service offerings that we have for our clients are going to be much more streamlined. The process continues to improve, and the key here is just making sure that our teams are really well trained to work with AI and to work with the adoption of AI and how efficient that can be to unlocking even more value on behalf of our clients.
So-
David.
I was gonna say, I mean, Jed's talking about investments, and, like, I'm a portfolio manager. I love the fact that the investment suite is increasing dramatically, but when you ask about, like, what's gonna change with advisors over the next five years, it's the, it's the holistic suite of services they're offering to clients, right?
I mean, when I was a Financial Advisor, you know, 20 years ago, and it was analogous to stockbroker, right? Like, it was, that's all you did. You know, to me, what I'm excited about is that, is that the services advisors are performing for clients has increased dramatically. Like, AI can be a huge win here. I think that, you know, people don't come to advisors for efficient portfolios.
They come to advisors for accomplishing a goal. I think that there's this kind of radical redirection that's happening, that's been happening, where more folks are gonna work with advisors that help them accomplish that goal with a huge array of service and solutions versus just I will build you an efficient portfolio.
Yeah. I.
Yeah, Peter.
... what's gonna happen-
Yeah.
...is that I think, like what Jed said, more is going to be centralized, which is actually a good thing.
Mm.
What happens at the advisor end, the client is getting more and more informed, asking more and more difficult questions for the advisor. There will be some advisors that probably won't make it in the next five to 10 years, which basically will then drive that centralization-
Right.
....which is good, because the advisor that comes along, or the advisor that just looks at the stock market as well-
Mm-hmm.
... is not good for anyone. They change around their portfolios all the time. That's really not great if you have a 30-year horizon. I really much agree with Jed.
Survival of the fittest-
Of course.
... which is, you know, par for the course.
That's like any other industry.
Yeah, like any other industry. Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah, Jay.
I was just gonna add, you know, if you take any asset manager historically, over a 20-year period, they all look like they're 10%-10.5%, right? Like, ultimately, everyone falls pretty close to a mean, with the exception of alts, right? Whether you consider private equity in those alts. Ultimately, I think if you go out five years, you're gonna be in this world where you do see a compression of a lot of the good ideas that those advisors ultimately use with those ETFs.
You start to see kind of this outlay of different opportunities that they have within that investment space. I keep coming back to this because I think it's so important. We're missing it. We're missing it right now. David, I respectfully disagree with you. You can't judge 3,000 people who have an ACLI study and then call that fact. It's just wrong. There are millions of people who are faced with this every day, and when we give our clients their lifespan, you know what they say?
It's wrong. Do you know what they actually say? Zero chance I'm living that long. It's a total, maybe a different issue when we talk about healthcare and we talk about women and we talk about these things. The reason why they say it's not important is because we're not even providing them data. We're giving them nothing, right? Now, all of a sudden, we're starting to provide them data, and then their response is, "I don't feel well. I hope I don't live to 87." That should shock us.
Mm.
It's just a crazy fact that we should all pay attention to. You know what the age group is, leading cause of suicide in the U.S.? Over the age of 75.
Oh.
We're failing, we're failing because we're not talking about the things. Our financial advisors have to talk about these things around health and feeling better and what matters. Healthspan is gonna be, I think, the most important topic we talk about, how people not necessarily are gonna live forever, but instead how they're gonna deploy these assets in a way that they can live longer, more productive, and purposeful lives.
By the way, also invest with a longer time horizon-
Yes.
... because as I just said.
Oh, you've touched on-
Right-
... a great point. It's super important.
... the advancements that are happening today-
Yes.
...in healthcare-
It's super important.
... telemedicine, personalized medicine, it's expanding the lifespans of our future generations by decades.
Yeah.
Again, you know, the similar vein-
There's no question.
...investing for next generation.
Right. People are gonna be working longer
The importance of doing the basics right when you're young-
Yeah.
...not outliving your wealth, getting good advice-
Yeah.
... like, all of those things that we talked about. 'Cause I bet the driver of that not really knowing-
Yeah.
...is people outliving-
Of course.
...their wealth, right?
They don't wanna burden anyone.
Right.
They don't wanna move back home. It's not a multi-generational-
Right.
...opportunity here in the U.S. Ida, what you just said is maybe the most important. When you think about millennials today, which is the older edge of that is 40-50, 40-45 years old.
Yeah.
Right? They need to start thinking about what it's like to work to 72.
Mm-hmm.
They're going to live longer. We're providing that data back to our clients and say, "Listen, your lifespan isn't a straight line. It's an arc of probability, and you're in control." Right? What happens if you exercise? What happens if you do these things? What happens if you do a better job of managing your financial resources and having strong investments? Those things all matter, and that's when I look at the financial advice world, that's where it's going.
My WHOOP tells me I'm two years younger-
I was about to say.
...than I actually am.
Yeah.
I-
I'm, you know.
You're better off than me.
I'm doing better, I'm doing okay.
My WHOOP says-
Yeah.
... I'm in trouble.
I'm an elder millennial, I was not planning to work till 72. Thanks a lot.
Well, age coming. You know what, though?
We started early.
Yeah.
You're gonna feel great, Maneet. Like, you're gonna want to work to 72.
Okay.
Right? Think about the extra seven years, right? That's another full compounding at 10%. You've just two extra wealth.
Real quick.
Yeah.
Like, what Jay's talking about is longevity literacy, right? There's different dimensions that are problematic when it comes to individuals estimating their lifespan.
Mm.
The average 65-year-old radically underestimates how long they're going to live, okay? That's a problem. A bigger problem, though, is longevity literacy among financial advisors. I've done lots of surveys on advisors too, not as big as the last one you decided. Like, in my surveys, 80%-95% of advisors use a multiple of five as their retirement end date for their financial plan.
Mm.
Almost none of them personalize longevity based upon client expectations.
Sure.
Right? The gap in life expectancy for a 65-year-old, if we look at the top and bottom decile, is over 10 years today. To Jay's point, he is spot on. You know, if advisors who work with the wealthy aren't talking about longevity, they're not gonna understand how long they're going to live, and they're not gonna build the best financial plan.
And I think-
Peter.
...we still talk about these.
Mm-hmm.
I would say two different levels. 1 is the great advice, you know, that we need to give clients, and clients need to understand. They need to look after themselves, they live longer and so forth. Guess what? There's also people who need to invest then in the healthcare companies.
That's right. Oh, great point.
Just taking that back, right?
That's a great point.
Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. We need people that basically, or investors-
Right.
....GPs that spend the money-
Mm-hmm.
...also on growth companies, right? For innovation, looking after people's health and so forth. Not surprisingly, EQT is the largest investor in the healthcare sector globally. There you go.
Yeah. That's great. Great, great.
Jed, JPMorgan has been aggressive in building private markets for wealth channels.
Creative.
Creative markets.
I'm kidding.
Tell us what's working and what's actually the hype.
Kind of listening to all this, you know, on the kind of how we think about solving for these things as investors, I think it reflects what's going on in kind of the industry right now in terms of where capital's being allocated.
Mm.
It's a bit of a barbell. You have either investors really looking for portfolio resiliency.
Yeah.
inflation protection, diversification, income yield, or they're looking for high growth, they want to invest in AI, and they want to invest in healthcare. Some of that's reflected in what we're seeing in industry flows. Last year, infra alone was up 60% year-on-year in terms of industry flows. Going, like, deeper into infrastructure, 'cause there's a lot of different ways to invest in infrastructure, the area where we're seeing the most demand inside JPMorgan is what we would call kind of core plus infrastructure that's focused on essential services, contracted and regulated power, very predictable. Think about powering the world's data centers as opposed to owning and operating the data center itself.
These themes of increased energy demand, issues around energy security, obviously what's going on in the Middle East right now, and, you know, Europe's, you know, reliance on Russian gas and what that exposed, this whole idea of needing renewables to meet both the increased energy demand and have energy security and reliability is incredibly in focus. These themes are resilient, and they're not really correlated to what's happening in public markets. The other part of infrastructure which is a bit under-invested in is transport.
You know, think about that as kind of owning and leasing ships to investment grade, you know, lessees like a, like a Rio Tinto. Also another area that's kind of been a bit overlooked in this cycle has been real estate. Obviously, there were challenges post-COVID, but we're seven quarters into a recovery now, and I think probably real estate will be one of the best risk-adjusted return opportunities that we see in the next cycle. It's not just about a recovery in office and retail.
Mm-hmm.
It's sectors like logistics, industrial outdoor storage, student housing. You know, real estate has been through a number of cycles, and recovery periods tend to be long and very strong. The other end of the spectrum is high growth, and I know we're gonna kind of get to the AI topic here-
Mm-hmm.
...a bit more. The bottom line is companies are staying private for much longer than they ever have before.
Mm-hmm.
It's not just the companies that you read about in the headlines. It's true for most companies. In 1999, the average company went public after about six years of incorporation. Today it's about 14 years. I like using an example. Google was private for six years. Databricks has been private for 13. Palantir was private for 17. The compounding and growth and investment opportunity at that stage for these companies-
Yeah.
...is immense, and it's hard to even compute as you think about it as an investor in terms of the compounding of those types of growth rates. The opportunity to own those companies as private companies and then hold them through the public period-
Right.
... is also becoming a theme, you know, that's emerging more and more. It's really a bit of a barbell, risk diversification and high growth, and we're seeing opportunities across both.
Just to add on-
Yeah.
... to your comments there, we have, such large opportunities also. As you know, family offices-
Mm.
...are another key growth driver-
Mm.
...in wealth management-
Right.
... around the world. They control almost $10 trillion of global wealth today, and that's been doubling every five to 10 years. With the family offices, they behave a lot like mini institutions.
Mm-hmm.
They're looking for direct investments. They're looking for co-investments. They're looking for different types of way to express their views-
Yeah.
...with more direct investment opportunities. Therein lies this opportunity for entrepreneurs also to get patient capital.
Right.
You're seeing a lot of replacement in many cases of family office investments into entrepreneurial type endeavors as well. We're gonna see more of that going forward too.
If you're a founder-
You're 100% right. Yeah.
...there's no rush to go public. I mean, the private markets-
Yeah.
...are so deep and wide. Of course, there's reasons to go public, and you're likely to see some very big-
Right.
... you know, private market IPOs this year. When you talk to founders about their decision-making, a lot goes into that. You know, they're thinking about, well, do they wanna justify every acquisition that they do?
Mm-hmm.
Do they wanna be completely transparent about their strategy to the public market? There's an ability to do a lot more as a private company, but at some point there's a trade-off. I mean-
Right.
...back to your comment, Ida, I mean, we co-led the Databricks, you know, Series L.
Series L.
You know, that's a company staying private for a long time-
Yeah, yeah.
... and growing very fast. You know, the opportunities on the direct side are significant.
Could I add just one quick comment on that?
Yes, please, Jay.
'Cause I think I'm the only CEO that went public in the last three years I'm h ere
Done.
What you said is spot on. I have to tell you know, there were pluses and minus. I get asked frequently why we made that decision when we made it as a small-cap stock. You know, I could argue that, certainly looking backwards, amidst the investment we made, the cost of being public, the cost of being public to a small-cap company is incredibly, it can be punitive. Putting everything out transparently, learning that process. I will say this, like, one of the biggest things for us, we were.
You know, we had positive revenue. We, you know, positive EBITDA. We had cash flows. We had all the things that you needed as an ongoing, as an upcoming public co. With that said, I would make the strong argument why small-cap stocks should go public and not wait, and the main reason why is, I'm sorry, I don't think I'm bragging about our numbers, but, you know, we tripled top and bottom line over the last two and half years, I would argue because we were public.
The challenge is, however, it's not happening really, right?
Right.
That's the challenge.
It-
It's-
I do think that's why investing in a company-
Yeah.
...yours when they're private, being able to own it-
Oh, that I would get.
...when it goes public.
Yeah.
You should have caught us right before we did it-- like, that I think-
Yeah.
There's no doubt about it.
...that I think is what's changing the landscape.
There were some private equity companies that are still-
They're not as separate.
...that are still kicking themselves.
Yeah.
That, you know, didn't quite get to us. I would argue being on that side of the table though, it's not like I had great offers from private equity, here's why. It was always pocket aces, right? It feels unfair when you're an entrepreneur, you built a business for 20 years, and you've got a half a table filled with people and me, and you sit there and say, "What are they getting here?" I think that this is a real issue with small business owners who either look to go public or then wanna take advantage of this. Again, I'm a huge proponent of small-cap stocks going public because I've seen the results. Now, you need things. You need to be able to drive your business.
You gotta work, you gotta, you know, invest, and you've gotta have, you know, really bottom-line earnings 'cause if you don't, it's gonna be really hard for you. With that said, when I walk in with my 10-K or 10-Q and, you know, we're out soliciting new capital to raise, not necessarily in public co but in our funds, like we ran. We went from $50 billion in AUM to $3.5 billion in two years, and it was because we were a public company. There was a layer of trust there that institutions had more comfort investing alongside of us.
I'm curious though, when you're talking to investors, which asset classes are they the most excited about right now? Obviously, the private markets hold a lot of value. What stage in the private markets are they looking to jump in?
Well, one of the questions that you asked that I didn't answer is, like, you know, where is the money going and where's the hype? I think where the money's kind of going and where capital's being allocated, again, are kind of those barbells, and then what Ida mentioned is, like, directs, which is-
Yeah.
... you know, very concentrated right now, but it's not just the companies in the headlines. It's the AlphaSense of the world. It's the Rogo. You know, it's companies that are kind of playing financial services industry in AI. I think the hype that I worry a little bit about is investors having a bad experience with private wealth alts. A lot of investors, this is their first experience, and we have to make sure as there's more product proliferation, that, you know, you could result in a situation where the democratization of alts becomes the commoditization of alts.
Mm.
That impacts returns.
Yeah, yep.
That's kind of what we worry about inside, we think about, like, does everything that we launch meet, like, an incredibly high standard? What's the investment thesis? Just 'cause you've taken a liquid asset and put it in a liquid vehicle, it doesn't make the underlying asset more liquid.
Mm.
It just compounds the problem-
Yeah, yeah.
... in a more challenging scenario.
That's such a good point.
I just.
Yeah.
I think that, you know, we just have to make sure that we don't get overly excited and it just becomes product proliferation 'cause what made the returns that you talked about great is, you know, drawdown funds, institutional quality-
Right.
... and we've gotta make sure we can keep that quality high-
Great point.
... even in the democratization.
Yeah, I.
Peter-
Yeah, I.
Yeah, jump in please.
I couldn't agree more because we are actually just on that journey, right?
Yeah.
Where we take our institutional mindset, you know, 30 years of closed-ended funds, to the individual investor via evergreen funds. I would say our biggest challenge or when we look at the market, this evolution is, if memory serves, there's about 13,000 GPs, registered GPs, in the U.S.
Mm-hmm.
I would say on a good day, probably two handfuls of those 13,000 should have an evergreen fund because they don't. They have the deal flow, the operational rigor, and so forth also to weather the storm when it comes, and I think we've just seen a bit of it on the credit side. I think that's probably my biggest concern, so I very much share that with you, Jed. I just hope that all the good intentions that, where we need to bring private markets to the individual investor is not getting slowed down by some speed bumps, I guess, on the road because we'll have some headline from-
Mm.
...Evergreens who are not doing that well.
Yeah.
By the way, it should be noted that private equity and private market opportunities perform the best in market volatility-
Yeah.
...and market dislocation-
Mm.
... which is exactly the kind of market that we're in today.
Mm.
Actually, in all my conversations with the CEOs of the private equity firms and private market opportunities.
Mm-hmm.
They're telling me this is one of the most interesting markets they've seen-
Yeah.
...in recent history.
Your point too, family offices, gosh, they have been incredibly helpful for us as a new public co. They, you know, they wanna hear your story. They wanna deep dive in. They wanna take hold of everything that you're putting out there. I think that on a private wealth side, you're right. They're like mini institutions and great partners.
Yeah, and just double-clicking on that for a second. Yeah, to, just even from the journalistic perspective, I've never heard and had so much engagement with family offices that do wanna talk about direct investments. They're kinda operating more like a traditional venture capital firm. Publicly coming out and making investments.
Well, it's interesting, Maneet, because you have seen a major shift in family offices almost, I will say, complementing and displacing, in many cases, private equity investors-
Yeah.
...as well.
Yeah. I think it's the mindset of the family offices. They come often from having owned businesses, if not just one of them-
Yeah.
...several businesses, right? It runs in the family that that's the way they want to invest as well. Unlike the dentist in Texas, you know, they do something different. Right? Therefore, it is a different mindset if you're a family office.
Well, I was just gonna come to you about the dentist in Texas. It's like you read my notes here because I wanted to broaden out from advisory to pension funds. How does the advice shift? From the GP seat, what changes when your LP is a financial advisor to a sovereign wealth fund?
I think there's a huge onus on us as GPs, but also as HSBC or JPMorgan, Abacus, anyone, right? That when they speak to the end investor, it's really a very different conversation than speaking to a professional LP, a pension fund-
Mm-hmm.
... you know, a very large family office and so forth. What we need to do, we need to make sure we educate the financial advisors. We need to make sure that everything we do is explained in the right way so that can be conveyed to the end investor. I actually think that's one of the probably biggest challenges as well, is to convey why should you not go in and out of private markets, why should you stay and have a longer term view on private markets.
We need to get that to the client, so we don't see the headlines which we've just seen the last one or two months, where people want to get out of private markets. Guess what? They wanna get in again and out again. They just need to stay put for a bit.
Yeah.
That's an onus on us, but we rely on the likes of JPMorgan, HSBC, to make that education via the financial advisors.
I think what's a little different with the asset owners, to your point, is that, you know, they are very much professional buyers-
Mm-hmm.
... and they have teams that are doing direct investments-
Yeah.
...not just on equity, but, you know, credit, infrastructure, and also teams that are, you know, investing in our funds. I think, you know, not to generalize, but in certain sectors like infra, for example, you know, the funds have actually outperformed some of the direct investments. Like, direct investing is really hard.
Mm-hmm.
You've gotta have, like, a real kinda program to do it. I do think, you know, there are some large institutions that are rethinking the way they do their direct investing program, wanting to rely more heavily on the, on the GPs in the future, and what do they wanna keep and what do they wanna stop doing, because it's quite challenging.
I would just add one quick point to all of that.
Yes, please.
Just put a bow on the family office piece from my perspective. We ultimately went public with a family office-
Mm-hmm.
...not a traditional private equity firm. It was, it, you know, they committed to being a long-term investor, and they spent the time to understand the business, and it was a terrific partnership for us. I do think that that trend is really gonna continue, Ida, in a significant way.
Seems like you should have come to your private equity firm with a family office heritage.
Yeah. Well, you know, now it's go back private, honestly. That's what we hear frequently, is that you know, there's, even our public shareholders will push us occasionally to say, "Hey, what's your take on going back private?" That market's just gonna continue to evolve.
Well, next year we'll recreate this panel, but on family offices.
Yeah.
Sounds like it sounds great. David, I saw you nodding. I wanted to just hear if you had some thoughts you wanted to add to that.
I agree.
Okay. All right. Peter, I wanna go back to you. In the U.S., we talk about private wealth as the next frontier, but you're seeing pension reform conversations in Europe and Asia open up across the board, and I'm curious to have you weigh in on that front as well.
Yeah. I think as a global firm, we clearly look at what's all the discussions about DOL and 401(k) in the U.S. Huge topic. Let's not forget big markets like Holland, who's just going from DB- DC. Germany's having a pension reform.
Mm-hmm.
All of Asia, all the wealth that's being created needs to get into some kind of a pension plan, which they don't have today. I think that's super important to just look at the whole world, because what we have as an obligation, I think as investors, is to provide the right performance to all individual investors, not just one segment of one country.
Really what we see is that we want to become a provider via mostly the panelists here to the individual investor globally, be that in Germany, Holland, or in the U.S. Because we are, again, we are the ones coming with the performance, and we need the vehicle and the education to get to the end client, the retiree, via, you know, good institutions like the ones on the panel.
What's interesting about the pension reform in Germany is it's gonna be a catalyst for the direct investor. Because, like, what's happening is, you know, millions of people are gonna have individual accounts matched by the government.
Mm-hmm.
Companies like Scalable Capital-
Yeah.
... are creating ways to kind of capture that and allocate it. You know, obviously Revolut, obviously kind of, you know, firms like HSBC, JPMorgan, that provide advice. So much of those companies like a Scalable are focused on capturing the individual investor through these pension, you know, reforms, which is really interesting in a lot of ways, like a brand-new market.
Yeah. Now in the U.S., you should hear how easy a time you have in the U.S. with 50 states and just the same regulation basically everywhere.
Yeah.
Europe has, of course, very different regimes in every single EU country. Not only do they speak different languages, the regime is different. The change that's coming now in EU is what is called the ELTIF, European Long-Term Investment Fund.
Mm.
It basically creates an even playing field across all of Europe, and the pension reforms are built to basically absorb that model, the ELTIF.
It doesn't feel easy here, Peter. I don't know how.
Speaking of long-term, I wanna touch on future-proofing with you, Peter. What does future-proofing a portfolio actually mean right now for EQT?
Future-proofing is something that we. A term we use for a very long time, 'cause as I mentioned here jokingly, our heritage is from a family office, the Wallenberg family, which now runs in the 6th generation. What we really have tried, and the Wallenbergs have tried now for more than 150 years is, I think maybe akin to the Rockefellers here in the U.S., is basically to make sure that when we leave a company, i.e., make an exit, 'cause we have to, 'cause that's the model, we leave the company in a better state than when we bought the company. That's really what future-proofing is about.
If you go down to the detail, you'll say, "Oh, that's maybe logic." I think to have a repeat model as we have, what is super important is, for example, when we IPO a company, if that IPO is a bad experience for the investors, you'd get a bad reputation in the market, and it's not going to be a repeatable model. That's why when we future-proof a company, we make sure that when we IPO, the stock should also, that's what we try our best to do, future-proof, continue the growth in the stock market, 'cause that's super important for us. That's why we were the largest in the ECM markets in 2025. Because we have that. The banks believe in our model, that's super important.
Jay, I wanna shift now back to longevity for a second. How does longevity as an asset class fit.
Yeah.
The income replacement problem that we were talking about earlier?
Interesting. We use longevity as an asset management tool specifically around acquiring insurance policies. When we think about alternative assets, insurance is two and a half times larger, life insurance anyways, is two and a half times larger than the U.S. residential real estate market. 90% of those policies never pay a claim. What we do is get and speak to those policy holders. We create wealth for them by having them better understand how much longer they're gonna be in the contract.
Mm-hmm.
Very simple and common sense oriented, ultimately, when you own the asset, now you've got effectively a mortality-driven zero coupon with certainty around liquidity. We have offices in six countries. We have an office in Luxembourg. European investors love this strategy. As well as Asian investors and Middle East investors, predominantly because it's an uncorrelated yield, right? Regardless of what happens in the market.
Mm-hmm.
I think that, you know, from our perspective, it was very much around utilizing the core of longevity assets and then applying those to different underlying assets that make sense. I think you can apply a similar strategy, whether that's in mortgage or real estate, when you have early payoff concerns. I think capitalizing on the data related to longevity, healthspan, how long these assets are gonna ultimately be in place, provides you with a very unique perspective on what type of investments you can provide the institutions. I think, again, going out over the next five years. More importantly, let me back up. If we just look at over the last six months, institutional investors, going back even further, three years ago said, "You don't have enough yield. We're in this.-
Mm-hmm.
... 8%- 10% uncorrelated yield." They all wanted private credit. Now, all of a sudden, we're very appealing at an uncorrelated 8%- 10%, right? With this kind of you know, feature related to duration where we have some certainty around that. Our point is, how do you capitalize on data across the board, right? We haven't talked about AI yet, but the things we're doing in underwriting related to AI is changing things dramatically.
Actuaries can now read 1,000-page medical files in seconds because AI summarizes them very quickly, and then they can do an output. We can produce a life expectancy almost immediately. This impacts a lot of different areas, not just financial services, but, you know, we had some great talks last night, you know, around immunology and biomedical and healthcare. All those things really matter. Abacus happens to be in a very fortunate position where we sit on all the data.
David.
I was gonna say real quick, I mean, I think.
Yeah.
You know, if there's, I don't know, $40 trillion in U.S. retirement assets.
Yeah.
Like, less than 1% of it has any kind of, like, longevity protection.
Right.
I don't know what the right number is-
Right.
...it's not 1%.
Right.
Is it 10%, 25%? To me, there is this huge opportunity there for solutions that allow advisors to more easily incorporate longevity into that decision process.
Yep. I couldn't agree more. I think that's where it's going.
So I'm-
These markets-
Yeah.
...will need capital, and I do think to the point Peter made, this is one of the best opportunities we've seen in decades-
Mm-hmm.
... to invest in healthcare.
Yep.
I mean, healthcare basically returned $0 for five years up until the second half of last year, and there's a massive patent cliff coming, and basically what that means is the largest public healthcare companies will need to replace their revenue streams by doing deals.
Yeah.
We're on pace to do probably over 70 over $1 billion transactions-
Mm-hmm.
... in the healthcare space just this year. Again, these companies are going to benefit from AI, drug efficacy-
Right.
... faster development times, all of those things. You know, kind of all of this is, you know, really well, well-connected from an investor all the way through.
It's what investors want.
Yeah.
Right?
Mm-hmm.
Everyone is following this. We're all wearing WHOOPs, right? We're all, I don't mean to be commercial for WHOOP, but it could be whatever you choose.
It's okay, yeah.
The point being is that, you know, this is what investors are asking us for, right? I think that, you know, whether it's longevity and lifespan and health and healthspan, and all these things really tie in so beautifully to each other. Making a call on healthcare and being able to invest in those products, I think is gonna drive women in investing. I think it's gonna drive generational wealth, the wealth transfer, where they're gonna go. They're already inheriting real estate, looking at their health. I think you can see it, right? Youth are not drinking as much anymore. Like, this is a primary focus. Having investment solutions that match that just makes a ton of sense.
Yeah.
Just one point-
Yeah.
... on that, Maneet, also-
Uh-huh.
...I have to say that there's a huge trend as the money is shifting to next gen millennial women.
I was just gonna ask you-
Yeah.
...about that. Yes.
You know, whilst we're talking about healthcare, we're talking about AI-
Mm-hmm.
... we're talking about tech, we're talking about different investment opportunities, one thing we haven't spoken about yet is how next gen millennial women are shaping their portfolios-
Mm-hmm.
...what they care about. What they care about more so than ever is doing good with their money, investing with impact, investing with purpose-
Yeah.
... aligned with their goals and objectives. We're gonna see so much more of that coming to bear in the next decade as the wealth is moving-
Yeah.
... to very customized investment driven impact investment driven portfolios-
Yeah.
...in a serious way. I'm very optimistic about what's gonna happen as this money is changing hands.
What are you hearing from them as they're making these investments? Is it also about legacy, or what are their key priorities?
It's about legacy, but it's also about doing something good, not just achieving the absolute return or the absolute alpha over the index performance.
Mm-hmm.
Rather, what am I doing with my money? Am I making an impact? You know, we can be so customized in the conversations that we're having with our clients. It could be everything from green bonds, housing bonds, all the way through to private equity opportunities, customized portfolios to express clients' viewpoints. I had a client conversation, I think I mentioned this to you previously, Maneet.
Mm-hmm.
A client said to me, "Look, I think plastics are the nuclear waste of this century.
Mm.
Help me build a portfolio that expresses that view." You're seeing more and more and more of these types of customized portfolios coming to bear as well. Huge shift in the industry.
Yeah. Great.
I know we only have a couple of minutes left. I do wanna switch to AI, and then I know we have some audience questions. We're gonna shift into lightning round mode. Where is AI actually in production in wealth management today? Open for the whole panel.
I have two quick things I could tell you-
Yeah, tell me.
...right away. We've touched on how it's happening in underwriting, right? Like, that's happening in real time. We see it also, you know, AI is effectively, you know, providing if someone gets a financial plan from a financial advisor today, you know one of the first things people do is they run it through AI. They have feedback that relates back, right back to the advisor. With that said, AI is not going to replace the financial advisor.
Yeah.
Mm-hmm.
Right? Like, there's just too much at stake. It's, it's why I still don't take a Waymo. Forgive me, for those of you Waymo fans out there. I don't trust that this car is gonna drive me without somebody in front, right? Like, I need some hands on the wheel, man. Like, I gotta know there's a person there. I think that we're gonna fall into that same situation when we think about financial planning and AI. Terrific tool, makes us all better and smarter, enhances where we are, but doesn't displace.
Honestly, AI is fantastic at efficiencies, automation-
Mm.
...next best actions and so on.
Yes.
All the tools and training, but it doesn't replace the EQ component.
Mm-mm.
Mm-hmm.
You know, where you're sitting at the table with your families and multiple generations-
That's right.
... how they're feeling, how they're expressing what they want to do. You can't replace that human touch with AI today.
Yeah.
We have about 1,000 technologists that focus on our portfolio management system, research, trading, you know, risk management, obviously portfolio management, and we've got AI tools embedded inside of that. A couple of good examples, and one very relevant to what we were talking about, we have AI now scanning the research that we do on public companies and private companies-
Mm-hmm.
... allowing the analysts and teams to share that data, AI automatically redacts information that can't be shared across.
Oh, wow.
Oh, wow.
That's something that would take people-
Yeah.
...you know, days to do and read through-
Right.
... and very manual, you know, in nature. You know, we also have Claude Code and Claude Cowork deployed-
Right.
...in sandbox environments.
Mm-hmm.
I mean, doing things incredibly fast. We're kind of just getting started.
Mm-hmm.
As a quick follow-up though, do you feel at times though that AI commoditizes the advice, or you're able to tailor it for these bespoke solutions?
Yeah-
Yeah.
...you can tailor it. I mean,
Mm.
It's absolutely a person in the middle making the end decision. When I come in every day, you know, our Spectrum system has read 23 million documents in the system-
Yeah.
...including the 40 years of buy side research.
Right.
Based on how I use it surfaces new things to me. You know, I'm reading it, but it's making my morning and day-
Sure.
...way more efficient.
David? Yeah.
I mean, with AI, we can radically improve the percentage of people globally who get advice.
Yeah.
It's not always the best advice. A lot of folks will still work with an advisor, but to me, it's just a huge win long term because more people can get help that wouldn't get otherwise.
Yeah.
Yeah. I think, going back to the point I made a few times now, is that here is the advice, and then there's the investment. I think in terms of investments, Jed touched on it before, the dispersion of returns in private markets is massive compared to public markets. It's always going to be bigger because of AI.
Mm-hmm.
There'll be winners and losers.
Good point.
Right? That's super important. When you make your investment decisions, make sure you make the investment with companies that have AI on the forefront. Here I'm not talking about 1,000 people, young people sitting and doing stuff, but actually the whole company should be focused on AI. That's super important.
I know we only have two minutes left, but we have two great audience questions, so I want to get to that. Can you talk to the tension between central management and the need to deliver bespoke advice? What are wealth management firms and asset management firms doing to better serve the affluent and lower end of the high net worth market? Who wants to take that one?
We're in it. We made an investment in a firm called Manning & Napier, which would be, you know, Manning, 50-year-old business, typically focuses average client net worth is that $5 million mark versus the ultra-high net worth at $20 million-$100 million. You know, what we're finding is that the similar solutions that people want, again, There's investment portfolios, those make a ton of sense.
Mm-hmm.
I think as Ida highlighted, there is this distinct demand for what we bring from a services point of view. How are you managing banking? Somebody maybe wants some help relocating. Like, these types of services within the financial advice platform is gonna, I think, continue to be what separates you because, you know, we'll probably see some consolidation on the general asset management side, and there'll be winners and losers.
I think the winners will be the ones that look a far more holistic approach, not just to investing, but also to providing things like understanding people's health, understanding, you know, their families, what's the dinner table topics, am I moving, what's my banking look like? Like, those services that were typically reserved for ultra-high net worth. I mean, I think JPMorgan's doing it now and HSBC is.
Yes. Mm-hmm.
Right? They're offering private wealth solutions to people down the chain and that's terrific. That means that the technology's working.
And, and that's-
We bought-
... by the way, a fantastic point because-
Yeah.
...not just about the investments, although that's a key component.
Yes.
It's about balance sheet advisory-
Mm-hmm.
... it's about wealth planning advisory, and it's about advising their companies-
Mm-hmm.
... you know, along the way, because we have such a global institutional approach with our clients. This is one sleeve of it, but the rest of it is incredibly important and critical-
Yeah.
... as well. Very well said.
We bought a small fintech about five years ago, a company called 55ip up in Boston, and they do tax transition-
Mm-hmm.
... and tax management. When I think about delivering, you know, scale and real value to advisors and investors, they help automate that analysis of tax transition and tax management.
Mm-hmm.
That, you know, today is, you know, millions of positions, 10s of millions of tax lots. Imagine if we were deploying AI in the future, how flexible that can be and how much more scalable it can be. I think that's an example of where we're doing it today and an opportunity in the future.
We had 1 last question, and we have 25 seconds, but I wanna try to ask it for the person who asked it. High net worth clients are looking for concierge services from their financial advisor. How will lifespan be incorporated in that offering?
It must be my friend.
Yeah.
Nate. No, it will be, right? Concierge services are going to incorporate all the things that we've already spoken about, from tax advice to estate advice, and when you start thinking about healthspan, if that becomes a piece, right, of everyone's portfolio conversation, advisors will take this and understand it so much better. If they can look and get in front of their client and say I'll leave you the one last little fact on this. You know the number one cause of mortality in emergency rooms? Misdiagnosis. It's because you are willing to put together all of your assets on a single sheet of paper so quickly, but the most valuable assets you own are your medical records.
Hmm.
The fact that we don't provide those, supply those, have those at ready is, to me, a tragedy. What we talk about is, when I think about concierge, somebody comes in and says, "By the way, here's your medical records. Here's your lifespan. Here's all these things in a central location that are gonna matter to you and your heirs," so that it can help prevent some of those things. I think that's where we're going. Like, it's coming in real time.
That's where AI works.
Yes.
That's what makes it.
100%.
Why haven't we done that before?
Right.
'Cause it was too expensive.
That's exactly right.
Well, with that, I believe we're out of time. I wanna thank all of my esteemed panelists. I do feel better prepared to think about my retirement and financial security. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.