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Earnings Call: Q3 2019

Nov 7, 2019

Speaker 1

Greetings, and welcome to the AMC Entertainment Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, John Merryweather, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed, sir.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Latanya. Good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone to AMC's 3rd quarter 2019 earnings conference call. With me this morning is Adam Aron, our Chief Executive Officer and President and Craig Ramsay, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before I turn the call over to Adam, let me remind everyone that some of the comments made by management during this conference call may contain forward looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations.

Numerous risks, uncertainties and other factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those that might be expressed today. Many of these risks and uncertainties are discussed in our public filings, including our most recently filed 10 ks and 10 Q. Several of the factors that will determine the company's future results are beyond the ability of the company's

Speaker 3

control or predict. In light of

Speaker 2

the uncertainties inherent in any forward looking statements, listeners are cautioned to not place undue reliance on these statements. The company undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events. On this call, we may reference measures such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted free cash flow and constant currency, which are non GAAP financial measures. For a full reconciliation of our non GAAP measures to GAAP results, please see our earnings release issued earlier this morning. In conjunction with our earnings release, we encourage you to review the supplemental financials for the 2019 Q3 that we published this morning on our website in tandem with the earnings release.

After our prepared remarks, there will be a question and answer session. This morning's call is being recorded and a webcast replay will be available in the Investor Relations section of our website at amctheatres.com later today. With that, I'll turn the call over to Adam.

Speaker 3

Thank you, John. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining us this morning for a review of AMC's strong results for the Q3 of 2019, our enormous optimism for the coming 6 months ahead as we finish 2019 and start off 2020 both with a bang and a progress update on several key initiatives in support of achieving the product, customer engagement and financial targets that we laid out for you at our Investor and Analyst Day in April of this year. The Q3 of 2019 was another strong quarter for AMC. In Q3, AMC continued to outperform the industry on revenue and attendance per screen.

In so doing, we drove significant top line, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow growth versus the year ago quarter. I'll share more details on our results shortly, but first, let's start with a quick look at the industry's impressive performance in the 3rd quarter. The domestic industry box office for the Q3 of 2019 came in, as most of you know, at $2,800,000,000 3.6% higher than last year's Q3 and 4.1% higher than the average Q3 over the past 5 years. Like in the Q2 of 2019, we continue to see a greater number of family friendly films led by The Lion King, which is as of this moment the 2nd largest movie of the year. As a reminder, family friendly films tend to drive greater attendance in our suburban U.

S. Theaters. In Europe, the industry box office also showed real strength in the Q3 of 2019, up 13.7% in the countries served by Odeon and Nordic on a constant currency basis. All in all, the cadence of the industry box office in 2019 is tracking exactly as we at AMC predicted a year ago. Starting with a weak first quarter, but followed by an impressive stretch in quarters 2 and 3, ultimately culminating in what we expect to be a very strong 4th quarter, which includes the release of a whole host of superb movies, including Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.

As always, while we are encouraged by the industry performance of the 3rd quarter, optimistic for the 4th quarter and note that there should be a significant spillover effect into the Q1 of 2020, it's important to remember that there are natural fluctuations in the box office at an industry level between weeks, between months, between quarters. Therefore, our activity at AMC is geared to optimizing our performance relative to our competition regardless of the ebbs and flows of the box office at large. To that end, we believe that AMC is extremely well positioned and is behaving as the leader in our industry in having assembled the largest network of theaters globally, in which we have prominently invested in guest enhancement after guest enhancement after guest enhancement, combined with world class marketing activity and our being in the midst of nothing less than a digital transformation of our company as we increasingly and seamlessly engage with our guests before, during and after their visits to our theaters. So let's turn back to AMC in Q3, in which we had an impressive performance, as evidenced by AMC's continuing to well outperform the industry. In our U.

S. Markets, AMC set a new 3rd quarter record in U. S. Attendance, up 3.8% this quarter to more than 61,000,000 theater visits. And for the 6th consecutive quarter, we noticeably outperformed the rest of the industry, the rest of the industry being defined as the approximately 3 fourths of the industry that excludes AMC.

On an attendance per screen basis, AMC indeed beat the rest of the U. S. Industry on attendance by 2 70 basis points. U. S.

Average ticket price grew a healthy 3.3% versus the year ago quarter, benefiting both from strategic price increases and a greater mix in IMAX and Dolby Cinema attendance. The result of our continued attendance outperformance, along with robust average ticket price growth, was that AMC outperformed the industry on admissions revenue per screen for the 3rd consecutive quarter, this time in Q3 by 560 basis points. Let me repeat that statistic. AMC beat the pack on admissions revenues in the United States per screen by 560 basis points. The story is similarly a good one in our international markets, supported by AMC's commitment to an improved guest experience with our proven guest initiatives and theater amenities at our European theaters, along with improved marketing activity by our company in international markets, our international attendance was up 9.3% compared to last year's Q3.

Incidentally, the almost double digit growth in European attendance, combined with a record U. S. Attendance, also means that we set a global 3rd quarter attendance record for our company this quarter in Q3 2019 of 87,000,000 guests, up 5.4% versus the year ago quarter. In total, Q3 AMC admissions revenue globally was up 6.1%, up 7.6% in constant currency. The AMC's 3rd quarter story is not only bright on admissions revenue, but also we continue to see strong growth in record setting concession spending, with 3rd quarter consolidated AMC food and beverage revenues per patron growing 3.4 percent to $4.82 and up 4 point 7% on a constant currency basis.

Breaking this down by region, food and beverage revenues in the United States increased in Q3 some 4.7 percent to a 3rd quarter record for AMC of $5.35 per patron, higher than any other major operator. While our international results in constant currency also grew by 7.4% to $3.77 which was an international third quarter record for us. In addition to our ongoing food and beverage initiatives, this strength in F and B revenue capture was supported by a sharper focus on innovation in the menu choices we offer to our theater guests and strategic pricing actions taken in the latter half of 2018 and throughout 2019. As we've said previously, we believe that we're still in the early to middle innings of capturing increased food and beverage opportunities and expect to continue improving food and beverage spend in both the United States and in Europe in the years ahead. On a consolidated basis, AMC generated 1,317,000,000 dollars of total revenue dollars, an increase of 7.8% compared to last year and up 9.3% on a constant currency basis.

In addition to our going for the gold in driving revenues, we also have been watching our costs and our margins. Accordingly, as a result of achieving company wide 3rd quarter attendance records and generating record food and beverage spend and marrying that with cost management, our margins did expand in Q3 of 2019 compared with a year ago. And AMC generated 3rd quarter total adjusted EBITDA of $156,500,000 which is up a healthy 11.4% in constant currency from the year ago quarter and up a particularly noteworthy 33.1% on a constant currency basis after adjusting out the non cash impacts of ASC 842 on lease accounting Adjusted EBITDA up 33.1 percent year over year. So in Q3 of 2019, AMC generated $56,600,000 of cash flow from operations, a $69,200,000 improvement over the year ago quarter, again after adjusting for the impacts of ASC 842. Likewise, adjusted free cash flow grew by nearly $51,000,000 year over year.

It really was a very positive quarter for AMC. I want to take a moment here to note that the 3rd quarter trends to be a seasonally low quarter for both cash flow and ending cash balance as our working capital items are impacted by the timing of certain studio payments. We expect these working capital items to normalize in the Q4. Said another way, we expect healthy cash flow generation in the Q4 of 2019 and a strong ending year end cash balance. Add to it a wholly undrawn revolver, we have now and will have at year end ample liquidity right in line with the expectations we have previously conveyed.

Again, trying to encapsulate for you why AMC continues to over perform the competition. We believe that these pretty wonderful Q3 results are directly tied to what we've been calling with you this year, the AMC platform. AMC is delivering a personalized and targeted end to end experience for our guests, leveraging modern technology and using data driven insights from our popular AMC Stubs loyalty program, which literally this very week should cross 22,000,000 U. S. Member households, totaling over 50,000,000 people on whom we have significant purchase histories at our theaters, along with our loyalty programs comparable to Stubbs within Europe.

As part of the MC platform, we're deploying innovative consumer engagement practices and state of the art theater experiences. This all creates a positive flywheel effect that encourages incremental attendance and incremental revenue and which holistically and synergistically drives incremental value for our guests, for our studio partners and for AMC. Before we turn to your questions, I'd like to briefly comment on 6 topics. 1st, on ASC 842 and lease accounting, as we've been telling you for many months, we continue to believe that a considerable disservice is being done to investors by the rapid confusion in the market for followers of AMC and for the many other companies with a large operating lease portfolio. The data services, Bloomberg, FactSet, Capital IQ, continue to wildly overstate our debt and are doing so inconsistently with U.

S. GAAP. As some of you have written extensively, ASC 842 caused us no change in cash, no change in interest payments and no change in the operations of our business. We'll continue to work with the data services, pushing them to give investors more accurate information. In the meantime, we would encourage investors to take 1 of 2 approaches when looking at AMC's leverage and valuation ratios to ensure like for like historic comparisons.

Either debt excluding operating leases should be compared to our reported adjusted EBITDA or debt including operating leases should be compared to our reported adjusted EBITDA, but adding back into adjusted EBITDA our rent expense. Our Finance and Investor Relations team is happy to discuss this further with any of you if you want more clarity 1 on 1. 2nd, as we've done in past quarterly calls over the past year or so, let's talk about A List. We are now in the enviable position of being able to give you a superb update on the rip roaring success of AMC Stubs A List. We are well aware that owing to the spectacular collapse of some others in this space, Some investors were fearful when we initially launched what we were convinced would be our sustainable and successful AMC A List program, they were not quite as confident.

I'm so pleased to report to 1 and all what a winner AMC has on its hands with A List. We continue to have over 900,000 members and A List membership is now at an all time high. This is light years ahead of our original membership goals. A List members currently represent about 16%, 16%, 16% of AMC's total U. S.

Admissions. Given our confidence in consumer demand for A List, earlier this year, we had the intestinal fortitude to increase the A List monthly price by 10% to 20% across the country to most of our members. That price increase went into effect for new members as of January 2019, but hit the 600,000 members who enrolled last year in A List only in the second half of this year, as last year when we launched A List, we guaranteed no increases to membership pricing for 12 months from date of initial enrollment. Remember too that we are charging more than double for A List what it costs to join Cinemark's Movie Club. And then in the summer of this year, Regal finally launched its own subscription offering.

There were some who speculated that the combination of our price increases, Cinemark continuing to dramatically undercut us on price, and a new Regal program could hurt us. Not the case. Our membership base is solid, loyal to AMC, growing and importantly profitable. As important as are the membership numbers, given the fixed monthly price, so too is the frequency of visits to an AMC theater on a per member per month basis. You'll recall the frequency level was 2.86 in the Q1 of 2019 and 2.848 in the 2nd quarter.

It was 2.4 in quarter 3, 2.4. We have previously indicated to you that when combined with all the other consumer behavior dynamics in A List of incrementality, high margin food and beverage spending and take along tickets at full price, the A List program should be handsomely profitable if member visitations per month are in the sweet spot of 2.5 to 3 visits per month. And that's where we are, right in the heart of Central Sweet Spot Bill. As a result, we can confirm to you that we are about 18 months ahead of schedule on A List profitability. At the time of the program's launch back in 2018, mid year, we originally postulated that we would breakeven on A List in 2019 and make money on A List, but not do so until 2020.

Now we can confirm that A List was nicely profitable in the just completed Q3. We also now expect that A List will contribute $15,000,000 to $20,000,000 to full year AMC operating income in 2019. And we can reaffirm our previous commentary about the run rate profitability for A List looking ahead on a per member per month basis by the end of this year 2019. What's more, we are finding ways to significantly enhance the A List program for members, but without but doing so without it materially increasing our where multiple members, including where multiple members, including family and or friends, can link their accounts. That way, one person can make a movie reservation and reserve specific seats for all in their entourage in just a single quick and easy booking transaction.

Previously, each member had to book on their own. So before Entourage, if, say, your spouse grabbed seat H5 for the 7 p. M. Screening of Paramount's Rocketman, you would separately have had to rush out and then try to grab seat H6. Our guests being able to book multiple seats at once is so popular that already in just the first two weeks, more than 60,000 A List members have enrolled in Entourage and linked up multiple accounts.

And speaking of more to come in A List, just a week from now, we will also introduce for the first time A List gifting, where someone can buy a 3 month, 6 month or 12 month A List membership for a family member, friend or business colleague without having to disclose the credit card information of the giftor to the giftee. It's no accident that we're launching A List gifting just in time for all those Christmas stocking stuff they need. In summary, on A List, we remain ecstatic about the continuing ahead of expectations, ahead of schedule positive and profitable performance of A List and the increased loyalty to AMC it has created. It's not the only reason for the surge in our U. S.

Theater attendance, but it is certainly one of the major reasons. For the 3rd topic to comment on briefly, I'd like to give you some more color on the $50,000,000 profitability improvement program that we announced on the last quarterly call mid summer. As you might recall, at our Investor and Analyst Day back in April, we set out to you a goal to improve AMC's operating margins by up to 200 basis points. As a part of our commitment to achieving this target, we announced a profit improvement plan that we believe will contribute $50,000,000 or more of operating income to AMC in 2020 through a combination of revenue and cost initiatives. There are literally dozens and dozens of identified line items to fund the cost savings and revenue opportunities outlined in our profit improvement plan, let me share with you a few examples to put some meat on the bone of achieving our goal.

During the just completed Q3, we took the difficult step of implementing a reduction in force at our corporate headquarters in Kansas City to right size our corporate headcount by more than 10% to be more consistent with our vision of a leaner, but not meaner AMC. In Europe, to cut out costly duplicative above theater overhead, we rationalized 7 separate geographic territories, each with their own centralized staffs to 3 geographic regions: UK, Ireland based in Manchester Northern Europe based in Stockholm and Southern Europe based in Barcelona, where in each we already had a large and effective staff presence in place. Both in the U. S. And in Europe, those steps represented significant payroll savings.

Another ingenious example, our marketing programs are so pervasive, our communications efforts so constant, and our mobile technology now so much more in use that very quietly, we have been successfully able to modestly shrink some of our theater operating hours during the most off peak of off peak times. This appears to be getting us considerable savings on utilities and labor costs at our theaters, but in the grand scheme of things, not depriving us of revenue. There just may be no need to start a movie screening at 11:10:10 p. M. On a Wednesday night and ending at 1:30 a.

M. In Oklahoma City, or for that matter in New York City, when thanks to our improving technology and growing brand loyalty, we can now convince a guest to cheerfully attend 10 pm or 10:40 pm show start for that same movie instead. But in that illustrative hypothetical, a theater gets to close a half hour or a full hour earlier. That saves us money and our staff gets more sleep, which in turn may lead to better customer service over time from more well rested and less stressed theater teams. In the 3rd quarter, we reduced show starts by 4.1% in the United States reduced show starts by 4.1% in the United States, and yet we achieved an all time attendance record for that same quarter and had the biggest increase in reported market share of any chain in the country.

This dynamic scheduling cuts both ways though. Getting smarter about knowing when to cut show times in the off peak means we also are getting smarter about adding show times in the peak. So when Star Wars opens in December, you can be sure that AMC will be going around the clock without interruption for days on end at major theaters all across the country. And more examples in the profit improvement plan. Just by adding an I'm not a robot security feature to our gift card database, that's pretty obscure, it miraculously saves us 100 of 1,000 of dollars annually.

Putting some of our vendor relationships out for competitive bid is also expected to save us 1,000,000 without reducing the quality of the goods or services that we procure. I'll spare you every line item on the profit improvement plan, but I can tell you that we are on track to hit and potentially exceed the $50,000,000 target for 2020. 4th topic, AMC continues to be committed to innovation. By the start of the just completed Q3, all of our U. S.

Theaters in the AMC and AMC Dine In Place offered reserved seating, which is immensely popular for our guests. At the start of Q3, we also launched our new Artisan Films concept, which puts a halo and extra marketing around what we're calling contemporary curated films into which we're leaning in heavily. Yes, we show 10 poles, but there are plenty of really intriguing movies out there that we are especially highlighting, like Universal's Yesterday, Warner's The Joker, Disney Fox's Ford versus Ferrari, Sony's Once Upon A Time in Hollywood And movie after movie after movie like Judy, Bombshell, The Good Liar and The Current War to name just a few of the many artists and films that we are trumpeting. More innovation in Q3. We started showing professional football games on Sunday afternoons at about 100 of our U.

S. Theaters. The early returns on our blockbuster pricing test, which launched on August 2 in 4 major cities across the country, are going very well and are experimenting with blockbuster pricing will continue. As we do in Europe, we are testing charging a small surcharge of $0.50 1 dollars 1 point $5 depending upon the theater on certain really big movie titles, at least for the 1st week or 2 of their run. And again on innovation, just 2 weeks ago, we introduced on our website and smartphone app, AMC Theatres On Demand, the ability for our AMC Stubs members to rent or buy more than 2,000 of the latest released movies for home viewing.

We're the 1st and only U. S. Theater circuit to participate in more of the movie ecosystem by allowing us to participate in revenue streams at the home and in the theater, and we have the enthusiastic support of all the major studios in our doing so. Leaders lead and innovation at AMC therefore will continue. In Q4 or Q1, we expect it will start testing home delivery of our own AMC Perfectly Popcorn and other menu items via Postmates, Grubhub or Uber Eats.

What I'm suggesting with all these various concepts, many that are just in the design stage, some that are now being tested and some that are now being widely deployed, is that there is real imagination and energy and vitality at work and on display at AMC. There are in fact reasons why our attendance and our revenues are outperforming the competition. As I said, leaders lead. Innovation, along with adaptive, creative new thinking, is part of the very ethos of AMC, especially as we transform ourselves digitally and engage with our guests more and more in offering a quintessential 21st century style moviegoing experience. Topic 5, just to hit quickly on our CapEx plans.

As you may recall, on the last quarterly earnings call, being very mindful of our desire to generate adjusted free cash flow and to deleverage, we introduced new guidance last quarter for 2019 CapEx of $415,000,000 down from $450,000,000 the target that was outlined earlier in the year. We also introduced 2020 CapEx guidance of only $300,000,000 which is reflective of the natural conclusion of the domestic CapEx cycle and in line with the long term targets we set out in our April Investor and Analyst Day of $250,000,000 to $300,000,000 over a 3 to 5 year timeframe. We are reaffirming those two numbers $415,000,000 $300,000,000 today. Indeed, the CapEx is not expected to exceed $415,000,000 in 2019, nor to exceed $300,000,000 in 2020. One of the reasons why we're comfortable containing CapEx at these levels as we look ahead is that we already have recliner seats installed in 78% of our AMC branded and AMC Dine in theater locations in the United States.

By the very nature of the AMC Classic branded theaters, with ticket sales usually in the lower end of the range between 200 to 1000 tickets sold per day, visitation levels that are these are smaller theaters are simply not high enough to get an attractive financial return from sizable investment in added theater amenities. We operate and compete differently among theaters within our classic brand. So adding our own CapEx monies together with landlord and partner contributions, we're still able to commit significant resources to continue investing in our technology and to continue to investing in our large theater network to make our theaters more attractive to consumers, especially doing so in Europe and the Middle East. As we identify growth opportunity and attractive high ROI returns, we intend to continue to capture them. And finally, topic 6.

I want to wrap up our prepared remarks in this call with a salute to 2 individuals by name, for whom I have the greatest respect. This comes in conjunction with a well earned retirement by our CFO, Craig Ramsey, at the age of Nabolibov, he won't let me say his age actually, who will hit his 25th anniversary with AMC on February 1, 2020. I think the world of Craig, as do many of you, who has a storied history with AMC, having served as CEO of this company for some 2 decades. Craig, in front of the people who know you, I cannot thank you enough for your sage counsel, your confidence and your high integrity, for your long standing service and many contributions to AMC over the years. You have many friends, you will be missed.

Craig and I have been working together on his eventual transition for some time. As a company, understandably, given the crucial nature and potential impact of the role, the CFO role, if filled well, AMC devoted great effort to identify and recruit Craig's successor as CFO, namely Sean Goodman, who joins us on December 2, just a few weeks from now. Sean is the CEO of Fortune 500 Asbury Automotive Group, like AMC also an NYSE listed public company. He is a CPA with auditing experience at Deloitte, both in South Africa and in New York and a Harvard MBA. He worked for Morgan Stanley in London as an investment banker for many years and led several senior staff finance functions at Home Depot in Atlanta for many years as well.

He is as smart as smart can be, a keen strategic thinker and a nice person to boot. I welcome him here to partner with me in Guiding AMC and especially to help us build back our share price to levels that we believe are far more commensurate with the potential earnings power and the bright future that lies ahead for our company. Sean and Craig will overlap together for about 3 months, making for what we all believe will be an easy, painless and orderly transition. Undoubtedly, they will get out and about during that time period and will be able to meet with many of you. In summary, as we conclude, AMC had a strong 3rd quarter.

We are well positioned for the future. And operator, we are now ready for questions.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our first question comes from David Miller with Imperial Capital. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 4

Yes. Hey, guys. Congratulations on a great print. A few questions. I'll get to kind of the nitty gritty first and then add just an overall philosophical question.

Adam or maybe Craig, the non cash expense entry on the NCM service agreement looks like it cost you guys about $0.08 a share. I'm surprised you guys didn't call that out. If you could just kind of describe that entry for us that would kind of help flush that out. And then it looks like rent expense was up 17.2 percent year over year. How much of that was ASC 842 and how much of that was just pure organic inflation?

And then I have a follow-up. Thanks.

Speaker 3

We'll have to get back

Speaker 5

to you, David, on the Congratulations.

Speaker 3

You stumped us on the Yes, on

Speaker 5

the NCM non cash. I mean, there is some amortization. We'll have to get into it and look and get back to you on that. Your question about the ASC eight forty two, the charge in the comparable adjustment in 2018 for ASC eight forty two would have been about $23,000,000 on a consolidated basis, probably about $12,000,000 of that domestically and the balance on the international side.

Speaker 4

Okay, fair enough. And then Adam, do you still believe that the U. S. Box office will end at a record this year versus last year? It looks like it's going to be very close.

It's probably going to come down to Star Wars. But you did, I think, make that statement perhaps 2 quarters ago, wondering if you're willing to stand by that again. And then also, just wondering if you could size up the Saudi Arabian opportunity. To me at least, this looks like a huge multiple expansion opportunity for your stock price and just yet another massively under served market around the world. And if you could just maybe couch some of the population statistics about the fact that it's just a younger audience and they want to go to the movies and so on and so forth, that would be helpful for us.

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thank you. On the box office, we're really not people are trying to forecast 2020. It's hard to forecast 2020 when you still can't quite forecast 2019, and it's hard to forecast the next 2 months of 2019 when we're all trying to figure out how next weekend will do. We're really not going to know where 2019 ends up literally until Christmas New Year's week. The film volumes are so big in December.

We know the quarter is going to be a big one. I think it's very unlikely that 2019, the domestic box office anyway will finish below $11,500,000,000 I think it's unlikely that we'll finish above $11,800,000 $11,900,000 We'd hope at the beginning of the year, this might be the 1st year to hit $12,000,000,000 It seems pretty unlikely it will do that. We're in that range, 11.5% to 11.9%, 11.6% to 11.8%, it really settles in. It really all depends on how individual movie titles gross over the next 7, 8 weeks. As for the Middle East, I was just there last week.

I'm going back in 6 weeks. The story has enormous promise for us. We have a single theater open in Riyadh. It's currently doing 11 times the revenue of a traditional AMC screen in the United States or Europe, 11 times. The average seat utilization per year at that theater in Riyadh is more than double, the highest grossing theater in the United States, which happens to be an AMC theater, by the way, Empire 25 at Times Square.

We've signed a joint venture agreement with the Public Investment Fund, an affiliate of the Public Investment Fund, the Sovereign Wealth Fund in that country to develop at least 40 to 50 theaters over the next 4 to 5 years. Our second theater, a 10 screen theater, will open in mid December. We expect to have somewhere between a dozen 20 theaters open by the end of next year, 2020. Remember, this is an affluent country of 33,000,000 people. It has the 20th largest economy in the world.

They like going to movies. They do it now by driving to Bahrain or flying to Dubai to see movies. They see movies when they travel outside the country. They see movies at home by satellite dish. And as we've proven, when we open theaters, they come to our theaters in huge numbers.

We agree with you. It's a significant opportunity for us. And we've done it in a capital light way. Most of the capital for our expansion in the Middle East is being provided by our Sovereign Wealth Fund partner.

Speaker 5

David, I actually now focused on your question a second. You're back to NCM? Back to the NCM non cash charge. Really, what's going on there is when the company was formed years ago, there were some upfront payments that were collected by the forming partners, one of which was AMC, of course. That money was deferred and amortized over the term of our ongoing agreement with National CineMedia.

Last year, the accountant said, you need to break out an interest component of that amortization. So really nothing has changed, whereas the amortization was formerly in our expense category, a piece of it is now pulled down into interest expense. So there's really no substantial or change of substance there. It's just a reclassification. And most importantly, it's a non cash item.

The cash was collected long ago. This is a non cash charge that's coming through.

Speaker 4

Got it. Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from Megan Durkin with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 6

Hi, good morning, guys. I'm wondering if you've had any very early learnings on the AMC On Demand product? And why do you think AMC can be successful in the VOD space given Walmart is exiting this business? And then, is I wanted to dig into your comment about around optimizing the box office versus competition. What are the levers you can pull there and how can we have confidence that you'll outperform the industry in 2020?

Speaker 3

Let me do the second question first. Why should we continue to outperform the competition? Because we've been outperforming the competition depending upon which metric you're looking at, 3 quarters in a row or 6 quarters in a row. And if you look at all of the marketing programs that we have, we're just so out in front of the pack. Stubs, it had 2,500,000 member households 3 years ago.

It's going to hit 22 and it wasn't growing either. We redesigned the program. 3 years later, it's going to hit 22,000,000 households this month. We used to communicate to our guests, e mails and the like, 50,000,000 to 100,000,000 times a year when I say used to, back when Stubs had 2,500,000 member households. We are now communicating to our guests via email, text, SMS, mobile push notifications, about 1,500,000,000 times a year.

About half of our total AMC clientele now is enrolled in our loyalty program, Stubs. And we're making it very easy for them to buy our product through our upgraded website and smartphone app. Under the old website that was here when I got to AMC 3.5 years back, we were being visited on the web or on our smartphone app just under 100,000,000 times annually. Depending upon the volume per month, our website or smartphone apps are being visited between a low of 50,000,000 times a month and 90 and a high of 90,000,000 times a month. We should be pushing in 2020 somewhere between 750,000,000 and 1,000,000,000 visits through our website and smartphone app.

We're all reserved seating, making it much more convenient for our guests. Our theater network is in better shape. More theaters having been renovated, more theaters having been installed with recliner seats. I could just go on and on, but it really is this what we've been calling the AMC platform, it is working. A List is just doing phenomenally well.

And we're just so out and far in front of our competition. By the way, it's not easy in an industry that's mature to move market share around, and we've had the biggest reported market share gain increase in the country. So that's what we've been doing. That's what we'll continue to do. We'll continue to do it well.

We're constantly innovating. And I believe that all that is going to cause us to continue to be out in front of our competition. As for AMC On Demand, AMC Theaters On Demand, we've only been out 2 weeks. It's a little early to give you any forecast over 2 weeks. We always thought that we would start out very slowly.

We had very little cash invested in this thing, a few $1,000,000 to program it. We're not spending a lot of money marketing it. We don't quite think we're going to scare iTunes or any of the people in the space already. But here's what we do think. If somewhere between 50,000,000 and 90,000,000 people a month who are interested in movies are already coming to the AMC website and are already coming to the AMC smartphone apps.

And if we can make it really easy for them to rent or buy movies on demand for home viewing, phone viewing, tablet viewing, You fish where the fish are. And since we've got so many people interested in movies already coming to us and exploring our website, we think that just by accident, we're going to see a substantial number of transactions on each of which we make a positive contribution overhead. So that's why we think we'll be successful. And yet, we think the business will be very small, at least when we start. And we'll see how we build over the quarters and years ahead.

But why not do it? It was easy for us to do. And we launched and we ask all of you, just you got to be a Stubs member, you got to be enrolled, but go to our website or go to our smartphone app. There used to be 2 buttons at the top of every page, in theaters and coming soon. There are now 3 buttons at the top of the page, in theaters coming soon and on demand.

We think that what we've designed is a really attractive, slick looking guest interface. We look every bit as professional as every as other major players in this space. And as I said, it costs us next to nothing to do it. We'll see how much revenue and profit it winds up adding to the bottom line. Studios are and lastly, and studios are very happy with us doing it because it's just one more player coming in and helping in the ecosystem of their home entertainment business.

We already have great relationships with all of our major studio partners to the extent that we can do more things that make their lives better, making their lives better ultimately makes our lives better in the long run.

Speaker 6

Got it.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from Chad Beyen, Macquarie Group. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 7

Hey, guys. Good morning. This is Aaron Lee on for Chad. Thanks for taking my questions. First, you talked a little bit about Regal subscription plan.

Since Regal launched their program, have you noticed any attrition in the markets where you guys compete? And then can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing from a labor or a payroll standpoint in cities? And do you think that's putting any pressure on your margin initiatives? Thanks.

Speaker 3

On the first question, Regal's Unlimited program. No, we haven't seen any impact, really. A List is healthy, strong, resilient, profitable. How many wonderful adjectives can I come up with to describe A List? It's driving great incrementality in moviegoing.

It's driving great incrementality in food and beverage spending. A List members are bringing people along at full price. We think we know we've got a very strong program on our hands. We also would note that while let me put it in right. We also note that we launched A List at a time when other unmentionable people were out there.

We thought we designed our program in a really smart way. We know that we've been managing our program in really smart ways over the past 18 months. There was a reason why we put in a limit of 3 movies per week in the A List program. And in the Regal Unlimited program, theirs is truly unlimited. So if somebody wants to see 25 movies a month, they can.

Honestly, when you're only charging $20 a month, dollars 22 a month, dollars 24 a month, somebody wants to see 25 movies a month, we're happy to give all those people to Regal. They're going to have every single one of them. But to answer your question, no, there's been no competitive impact on us. We're strong and we're healthy. As for labor and payroll, Craig may have more detail.

But yes, there's no doubt, we're on a multiyear trend of political decisions being made to raise minimum wage all over the country. That is costing us money. But that's one of the reasons why we're looking so hard to drive savings, real savings, through the profit improvement program. And I gave you several examples where we are really cutting costs, and there are dozens and dozens more examples that I didn't laboriously take you through. But net, we're ahead of the game when you look at cost reduction efforts against labor and payroll expansion efforts.

Speaker 5

Yes, I'd say that the wage minimum largely due to the minimum wage changes that Adam referenced was probably somewhere between 7% to 8% in the quarter. I think on a go forward basis, we'd expect them to be around 5%. So yes, we're seeing it most notably, not to repeat Adam, but I think example of how we really took a hard look at show starts as an example of optimizing our operating envelope without sacrificing revenue because we still outperformed on a revenue basis. Even with some cost pressures, we managed our business smartly and we saw margin improvement. And I think that's really the answer.

Yes, there was wage cost. We did the right things to manage our business under those circumstances and we still improved our profitability.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from Mike Hickey, The Benchmark Company. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 8

Hey, Adam, Craig, John, congrats on the quarter guys. And Craig, you'll definitely I guess just two questions. It looks like your A List subs sort of held through the first price increase. But I guess as you sort of think as the price increase, I guess hit some later adopters, the impact you would expect your total subs if you can continue to grow that or if you expect a mild decline? And then second question on one of your partners, National CineMedia, changed their deal with some of their founding partners, including Cinemark, to allow ads post Showtime, which I think is pretty common in international markets.

It's also, I think happening with the competitor domestically with the screen vision. And you guys are pretty vocal that that's not something that you wanted to participate in. So I'm just sort of curious your thoughts there and why they decided not to do that.

Speaker 3

Sure. So let's talk about A List first. Yes, it's all good for A List. The membership growth is way ahead of where we expect it to be at this point. I would expect that we would continue to grow our A List membership.

I don't think we've flattened out to a point where we'll decline in membership. But I do think the growth going forward is going to be much slower than it was in the 1st 6 to 9 months when we were in a ramp up phase. The price increase is a factor, competition is a factor. I think the biggest factor is just how big this market size is. When we launched the program back in June of 'eighteen, I actually speculated that if we got to 1,000,000 members, it would take us 2 full years, but that we might not ever get to 1,000,000 members because I had sized the market at about 800,000 members for AMC.

We're already well ahead of that. I think we'll continue to grow, but not at the exponential pace that we saw in the 1st 9 months. As for NCM and advertising, There were 2 things that were in the NCM announcement. One is they're showing ads 5 minutes after the official Showtime start. And the official Showtime start is actually 20 to 25 minutes ahead of when the movie actually begins because there's a big trailer package that shows in the 20 minute period prior to a movie start.

And a second issue, which is 1 to 2 trailers before the movie actually begins. So call it 2.5 to 4 minutes before a movie actually begins, they were going to be inserting another a 62nd ad right at the middle or the end of the trailer package right before the movie starts. We don't have any problem really with showing ads 5 minutes after the showtime start. It's a long time before the theater before the movie begins in theater. But this thing about showing commercials right before the movie actually begins in the middle of the trailer package.

That trailer package is extremely valuable real estate. And I would so much rather be advertising movies. The value of what we earn, both from the paid trailers where we are receiving income from studios and from all the extra tickets that we sell for future coming attractions, That's so much more than what NCM offered us to show an ad for Tide detergent. We also think that and know that our customers like seeing movie trailers, and we think they're going to find it quite jarring to see an ad for an unrelated product just before Showtime. So it's commonly done in Europe, but consumers are used to it in Europe.

We don't it's not commonly done in the United States, and we think U. S. Consumers are going to react pretty negatively to it. So as the leader in the industry, we passed.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 3

And I just might add, I'm convinced we're going to make far more money from the sale of trailers to studios and the sale of tickets to films. By the way, we deploy our trailer time. We'll make far more money from that than we would make if we accepted what NCM had offered us to show unrelated third party advertising in that space.

Speaker 1

Thank you. We have time for one more question. And our question comes from Eric Handler with MKM Partners. Please proceed.

Speaker 9

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Adam, you haven't really talked much lately about the success of the receipts in Europe and how those are fared. I think by now we're sort of a number of them have sort of anniversaried the 1 year mark. And I wonder if you could just give us some color on how those are performing?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Eric. The resets in Europe continue to be off the charts successful. We said on prior calls, we were seeing ROI returns of 50% or more, 70% or more. We're seeing theater revenues go up in half. We're seeing theater revenues double.

There's no new news that makes us any less bullish on our investment in theater and many programs in Europe. You'll notice that even as we've brought CapEx spending down in total for the company, we've said over and over again that we continue to see significant ROI opportunities, especially in our European and Middle Eastern theatres. I would expect we'll do at least 15 theaters in the UK in 2020, for example, with full blown theater renovation, including recliner seats. The whole investment thesis behind our buying Odeon in the first place was to take a circuit with a strong brand name and great physical locations, but a fleet of theaters that were pretty rundown and invest significantly in improving the quality of those theaters, bringing AMC style proven guest initiatives over to Europe. That's what we've done.

We've got about 30 theaters done. We're going to add another 15 more next year, and we're off to the races. This has been a very successful initiative for AMC. It's made us happy to have grown in Europe, and it's an all good news story. One that will continue in 2020 beyond.

Speaker 9

Great. Thank you. And just a quick follow-up with the UK market. It seems like View continues to have very irrational low pricing in a number of its markets. Wondered how that's been impacting you lately?

Speaker 3

So yes, one of our competitors has been pretty stupid, especially in the UK. We fortunately have been renovating theaters in the UK. So there's been no need to match their lowball pricing. As we've insulated ourselves somewhat by improving the quality of our theaters, there's a reason why we can charge a dramatic premium. When we launched Avengers: Endgame at the Odeon Leicester Square in London, we have variable seat pricing commonly in Europe.

We were charging $40 a seat to see Avengers Endgame at the Odeon Leicester Square. And if you sat in the royal box, which is like 24 seats, I think, 18 seats, I don't know how big the royal box is. We're charging $52 a seat to watch Avengers: Endgame at the Odeon Leicester Square. So you can differentiate yourself via the quality of your theaters, not just on price. But in others of our theaters, we got tired of them picking our pocket.

So if you look, for example, at 3rd quarter pricing internationally, you'll see that the price increase we picked up in the States, we did not pick up in Europe, but are getting down and dirty and slogging it out with them is one of the reasons why we had a 9.3% increase in attendance in Europe. And the end result of it was growing attendance, growing theater admission revenues, growing EBITDA, growing margins. So we think we got the formula right. Craig, do you want to add?

Speaker 5

Yes, I might add some context to with a couple of data points. I think we mentioned that Adam mentioned on his call, his former remarks that Europe, our industry was up a little over 13%. Our recliner segment of our circuit outperformed by in Europe outperformed by a factor of 3 times that. So that's the they're driving a lot of the growth we're seeing. And there's that's clearly a portion of our circuit.

I mean, it's 25, almost 30 theaters. So it's not it's a growing more important piece. It's the fastest growing. And we're certainly not forced or pushed to take price reductions there. In fact, we're optimizing our price because of the big demand that we're seeing on those remodeled reseated theaters.

We are matching prices in some of our other theaters where it makes sense to us strategically to take some lower price, but not certainly not on the remodel piece.

Speaker 3

Folks, we know that this is a big earnings season day. There are a lot of companies reporting. We want to let you get off the phone. Thank you for participating and joining with us today. And to sum it all up, AMC had a very strong quarter.

We are extremely well positioned looking ahead. We have every confidence in our future and hope that you do too. Thanks much.

Speaker 1

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. And thank you

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