Among the largest dealership groups in the U.S., and truly one of the most consistent providers of returning capital to shareholders via a very consistent buyback and its terrific cash flow generation. We have Derek Fiebig here. He heads the company's Investor Relations team, but also we're very pleased to have Jeff Butler here. Jeff is the head of AutoNation Finance, which is somewhat of a new endeavor for the company, an acquisition of the company in 2022 as the company rolls out its lending platform. So it's great to have Jeff here, and we'll get right into Q&A with Derek as well. AutoNation is about a $6 billion equity cap company and about a $10 billion total enterprise value, so I'll sit down and we'll kick things off.
Thank you.
Derek, I guess just to start, let's talk about the overall environment in the new vehicle market that you're seeing right now from a demand perspective, and then we'll go into used, and then we'll start talking about AutoNation Finance because I think it's really important.
Yeah. So if you look--
I think you got to get close to the microphone for them all to.
Yeah. So the SAAR's been hanging in there pretty well. Historically, we were at a 17 million unit plus. Looks like we'll be high 15s for this year. We're still recovering from where we were. We're seeing better inventory availability across the board. Still light in terms of what we have on the import side of things, but some of the other brands are back to where they were pre-pandemic. We are seeing overall our GPUs, which we call PVRs, so how much we're making on the front end of the vehicle. We're at $2,800 a copy this past quarter. If you go back, it's probably up about $1,000 more pre-pandemic. And then we have CFS, which is our F&I side of the business. That's up probably $600-$700. We did $2,500-$2,600 a copy there.
So the market's shifted. ASPs are up from about $40,000 a vehicle to about $50,000. Some of that's a shift away from passenger vehicles into trucks, and there's more complexity to the cars. So we've seen where the prices have gone up, but healthy market. We just haven't seen the growth come back the way that some people were looking for it, but a good spot for us to play.
If we're thinking about this market now with a SAAR at about 16%-ish, 15.8%, and it's been three or four years, and it's been four years now since SAAR has been effectively under trend, how much of that do you think is creating pent-up demand for new vehicles versus maybe the other side of that is that vehicle affordability is putting a top on annual new vehicle sales with potentially a shift to used?
Quite honestly, I'll take this one. Thanks. I think it's the combination of the two. I think there's absolutely going to be pent-up demand, as Derek alluded to. There are certain OEMs that haven't had the supply return from a pre-pandemic position. And then there's obviously others you mentioned in the last session, Stellantis obviously being one that has probably more cars on the ground than they would like to have. But I think the other part of it is affordability in that as interest rates have risen the last couple of years and we see now what the Fed has done most recently and with the expectation of a continued rate drop, I think that will probably ease some pressure and put people back into the market to get the SAAR moving back in the direction we're historically been. But I do think it's a combination of both.
I think as interest rates moderate down, affordability does become a little bit more attainable for the average consumer. I mean, you look at new car monthly payments and where they've gotten to. As Derek mentioned, the average sale price, I don't think cars are going to get any less expensive. But obviously, as lenders in that segment of the business are able to return a more modest interest rate to that versus what we were seeing the last couple of years, I think that will unlock some of that pent-up demand. I do think incentives from the OEMs will help drive that demand as well. We've not seen a return to pre-pandemic levels with respect to rebates.
I do think leasing will continue to come back. Historically, it's been 30%. It's low 20s, I think, as the OEMs obviously incentivize, whether it's an APR perspective on a purchase or from a residual perspective on the leasing. Leasing obviously will unlock affordability to a much larger degree than we've seen the last several years.
I want to just ask one or two more on the new side before we really kind of dig into the finance initiative. We have seen automakers with varying degrees of success, I'll say, brand themselves as partners with dealers, but it certainly seems like there's a bit of an attempt to grab share of wallet that may have otherwise gone to the dealer through either subscriptions or app-based features. Can you talk about how that relationship is evolving with the OEMs as they look to really capture more of an after-sales perspective?
I think that business is still very nuanced in that a lot of it is indexed maybe more towards the premium luxury. As you said, certain OEMs have had greater success than others. I think as consumers continue to evolve and demand what they want, we'll potentially see how that business plays out. I think there's still a lot of viability around the franchise model. And one of the things that we hear and continue to see is that even though there's been consumers that have proven in the market that they want to transact differently than they've historically done, there's still a large segment of the customers who want to be able to engage with a dealer, be able to see, taste, and touch their car prior to execution. I think that will remain viable. How we continue to work through those relationships, I think, is meaningful.
We have those conversations with our OEM partners almost on what seems like a daily basis. But I do think the products that we traditionally offer from a CFS perspective drive probably a little bit more of a day-to-day value than some of the apps and features that are in the subscription model.
Last one for me on the new side is you mentioned gross per unit, which is, I think, really the battle with investors is on one side, you have the thought that these are going to continue to go back towards trend, and on the other hand, you have people like me who think that we have a higher floor. Maybe talk about some of the reasons why you're confident that we're not going to see gross per unit get back to pre-2020 levels.
Yeah, I think that a big part of that's just the inventory. We had over 4 million units of inventory in 2019. The number's 2.8 million or so. It's working its way back. The model worked really well for the OEMs in terms of their overall profitability with limiting some of the supply as opposed to stuffing the channels with too many vehicles, which we saw happen pre-pandemic. If we can continue to have that where inventory is a little more limited, discipline from the OEMs, it should support it. Don't ignore the fact that the ASPs are up quite a bit too. There should be some economics in for that being at a higher price there, Brian.
One of the things that I point to, though, is just the consistency that we've been able to deliver with the CFS. I'm sure we'll get into that a little bit later, but that's been a big change for us. And then the after-sales side of the business, which is our parts and service business, we've grown that by $500 million since pre-pandemic. And that's high retention, recurring revenue that you have with the consumer margins just under 50%. So it's great business.
Let's take a step back to 2022. AutoNation, with relatively newer CEO and Mike Manley, decides to buy CIG Financial out of California to create a captive finance subsidiary for used vehicles, a business that had been predominantly a subprime lender, and it's evolved quite a bit under your leadership, Jeff. Can you talk about the reasons to get into this business now for AutoNation, maybe size where it is now and the potential and what you see the opportunities are?
I think the primary reason, as we announced in October of 2022, was to support our used-only platform, AN USA. We have 23 of those stores now with a plan to continue to grow. What we've learned through the AN USA creation is that those stores do well in markets where we have good density with our franchise stores. It allows for cost synergies, asset allocation, along with sourcing of used car inventory that we can then strategically allocate across the dealerships that allow to hold margin to a greater degree than we previously would have. I think, obviously, with some of the competitors that have emerged over the last several years, it also proved that there are customers who are very comfortable transacting at a reputable used car-only operation. So to have that footprint, I thought, was smart for AutoNation to go down.
For those that may not know, AutoNation in its history started that way with only used car business and then kind of transferred towards the franchise model. So to get back to that, I think, was a smart play. I do think as we've gone through the last, call it, 18 months of integration, we saw the opportunity to pivot away from the subprime that you mentioned with CIG Financial. The initial thought process was to kind of originate in parallel. We would continue to operate as CIG in a non-AutoNation environment and support the AutoNation stores, as I just mentioned. As the subprime customer started to experience some significant challenges in late 2022, early 2023, we made the decision to pivot away from that business in whole. So we don't do that non-AutoNation business anymore. We moved into supporting the franchise.
What we've seen is, as we've gained market share primarily from existing lenders, non-OEM, that AutoNation had been working with for the better part of the last 30 years, and we've done the numbers over the life cycle alone, those loans will be 2.5x more profitable than if we had transacted those loans with a third-party lender and just gotten 30% of what we call the CFS PVR, where it's the dealer participation. So over the life cycle of those loans, now keeping that finance charge as we build out capabilities as the captive, those loans become two and a half more times profitable to the company. So we continue to look to grow that. The latter part of what you asked is, year to date, we've originated $700 million, which is ahead of plan.
The portfolio is quickly approaching $1 billion. By the end of the year, it was $400 million at the start. So I think there's been a lot of work done to incorporate ourselves into our stores. I think from a steady-state perspective, there's still multiple X opportunity for us to grow that business.
And talk about sources of funding for that growth. I think we had spoken earlier about how AutoNation being investment-grade is helping drive that business maybe even further potential than you otherwise would have thought.
So from a historical perspective, CIG was wholly owned by one individual, more of a family-run operation with not a lot of outside equity. So at the time of the acquisition, we originated and pivoted away from some of the equity contributions of the prior ownership and primarily funded the growth through AutoNation's balance sheet. As we've reworked our warehouse facilities with those partners and have gained scale and started to be able to emerge with some portfolio, we've renegotiated those warehouse facilities. So there'll be a shift as we leave 2024 away from what I'll call parental support and having the equity reside on the AutoNation balance sheet. It'll be a traditional warehouse facility with an ABS execution strategy.
We will be a programmatic issuer and have continued to have conversations about some other opportunities on how we fund the business outside of AutoNation equity and ABS with potentially some forward flow or things of that nature.
You have a unique perspective into the consumer, particularly in the used market, because these are predominantly loans that are being provided to used-only stores, which is a little bit of a different customer base than your franchise dealer. Maybe talk about the health of the consumer that you're seeing within the used market right now.
So over the last two years, we have pivoted from, as I mentioned, what CIG had been. Our average customer now is about a 680, 685 FICO. So it's trending much more in a prime direction. We continue to see a great start. I think used presents itself an opportunity in that as affordability, which we talked a little bit about. I think there's an increasing number of people who are looking at used cars as a viable alternative. The lower monthly payment, along with the reduced depreciation because of the dynamic you have at the time of a new car purchase, allows for a little bit more affordability, but also increased performance from what we've traditionally seen in the past. I think as the economy continues to stabilize, used rates continue to moderate down, I think that will only increase in its manifestation.
As you mentioned, about 85% of the loans that we're financing are used cars and allows us to strike a balance between our OEM partnerships, obviously on the new car side, along with growing the market share at the FinCo.
Just one reminder, again, open forum if there are any questions out there. You had an interesting perspective on your use at AutoNation Finance of AI in helping drive greater efficiency and also greater performance out of the organization. Can you talk about how you're using artificial intelligence to your benefit?
On the origination or underwriting side, we're at the initial stages of layering that in. And as we scale and gain market share from a cost perspective, along with an expectation of performance, layering in that technology is, I think, just smart to do so. We've grown automation. At the scale I mentioned, it just becomes unsustainable to do that as CIG had done it with a much more manual underwriting process. What I'm more excited about is that we have layered in two versions of AI into our servicing component. One is a real-time coaching aspect that the agents receive, partly what I'll call a Miranda adherence from a regulatory process that they will not be able to move forward without ticking those boxes. But the more impactful portion of it is real-time coaching to overcome whatever the objections or the circumstances the consumer is facing.
So based on word track, voice recognition, that coaching will be delivered real-time to those agents to be able to remind, coach, and train, and educate consumers on what options are available and how we solve for them, which I think, again, at scale is a piece that is hugely exciting. The latter part that we're, again, layering in is in an underwriting or origination environment, that initial understanding of the customer in a prime environment holds true for about 12-18 months post-funding of that contract, and then life happens. So what we're in the latter stages of assessing and going to layer in is what we call a Behavioral Scorecard.
And that basically takes into account payment activity over a period of time and will allow us to be much more strategic about which consumers need to be serviced at what point in time based on prior history with them. So if you think about it from a perspective of you can learn through payment behavior that a customer always pays five days after the due date. You don't have to start working on that loan as early as you would some others where you know you have that pattern developing on a much sooner basis.
It's like having a teammate that is always 10 minutes late. So you just tell them that the meeting starts 15 minutes before or anyway.
I have a golf buddy. I always build in a 20-minute hedge on the tee time.
Brian?
Yeah, thanks. So just back to the new car SAAR. So you mentioned here in a lot of the companies presenting this conference have talked about this squishy SAAR, off of a normal algo. So from your perspective, is it more demand or supply that's driving that on the new car side?
I think it's a bit of both. You have some OEMs that have had plenty of supply, and we've had to work through that with them, and you've seen some incentives coming to the market for it. The imports have been low. We ran for Toyota was probably at five days for a year or so, and it's come back a little bit, but it really gets to what the overall affordability is, Brian, in terms of what your monthly payment is, what people are seeing. And I think that's been keeping the market down a little bit. This first rate cut, we just saw the results of the October SAAR. That was the first time you've seen the full monthly impact of that, and headline was, what, up 2%, I think, but you had two more selling days, so actual units were up 10%.
So it was a pretty good turn there. We'll see what happens going forward. The car park just keeps getting older. We're over, what, 12 and a half years now in terms of the average age of the vehicle. And so we will see some more replacement coming in. But I think a lot of it is what Jeff talked about, where you're going to see more leasing. You're going to see some more incentives coming on, some rate cuts that help. And all those things should help to fuel better affordability for the vehicles going forward.
With respect to rates, is there a magic number that all of a sudden triggers better demand with consumers?
I don't know. You got an opinion, Jeff?
I mean, it's purely a personal opinion. I think a healthy SAAR at a historical number probably puts a prime customer somewhere in the 5% range. I don't think we'll get back to some of the rates that we saw with a Fed funds rate at effectively zero for such a long period of time. But I think if we can get down to 5%, my mind is drifting to people who work for me. And if you're a consumer in the last, call it, 15-20 years, you don't understand a 7%-8% new car rate for a prime customer. I think if we can get down maybe into the high fours, 5%, I think that is a good striking balance for a healthy SAAR, affordability, and a rate that, for the most part, just makes sense.
Carolyn?
I can't help being late to things, so I have two questions. One, our keynote today is going to be around electric vehicles. Can you kind of talk about how the disconnect maybe between electric vehicle demand and production schedules has impacted AutoNation and kind of how you're working through that? And then the second question, one of the largest electric vehicle producers out there has this kind of DTC model. Can you talk about how does AutoNation play or respond within that ecosystem?
I think, as all things in open and free markets, electrification will be driven by the consumer. I think there are certain OEMs that have probably learned that they went a little too hard or heavy into electrification, and there's inventory on the ground that is not moving at the rates that they would have liked to have seen, and I think there's going to be a need for incentives to drive the sales of that. I think there are other OEMs that went about it a little differently with plug-in hybrids that have proven to be a little bit more palatable to the consumer and open, what's the word I'm looking for, desirable, and I think how OEMs continue to moderate and strike that balance, I think, will drive ultimately whether they're accepted to the degree that we think they can be or not.
I mean, I think it's something that's coming. But I think as OEMs understand to a better degree what the consumer wants, I think you mentioned DTC, and obviously the success across the country, but especially in certain markets of Tesla, probably caused, in my opinion, an overreaction to move to full electrification. I think the biggest thing that holds electrification back is the network, the charging network. And I split time between Fort Lauderdale and California, so I get to see a huge difference in the support network in one state versus the other. And I think as the support network is there, longer range becomes a more viable option. I think electrification potentially has its place. Direct-to-consumer, I still think is a work in progress. There are others who have tried it and have not had the same success as the one I mentioned.
I think, as I mentioned earlier, with respect to a different question, there's still a lot of willingness and desirability to be able to transact at a franchise dealership.
Yeah. And just one thing to add to that is if you look at the leasing rate, we talked about we're kind of like 23% or so. Historically, that was 30%. On the BEV side of things, we're north of 60%. So that's been a nice way that the OEMs can come in and participate, help to manage the monthly payment for the consumer, and address some of the concerns you might have about residual value of the vehicle or shifting of technologies going forward. So it's been a big adjustment moving away from ICE engines for the industry. And some of the OEMs have done a little bit better job than others, but we're working with them and we're supportive of it. And it's going to continue. I think the hybrid side of things is really exciting for us, just given our mix as well.
Those vehicles are doing extremely well for us.
Andrew?
A bit of a niche question. Can you talk a little bit about your relationship with SiriusXM and maybe any incentive there? And then any change on consumer uptake or challenges in selling through that product?
Really don't.
Give me your number. I'll get back to you.
In terms of those products will be offered, obviously. I have a Cadillac, which it came with it for the beginning of having the vehicle. I really wish I would have had it last year for a trip when Michigan was playing football. It would have been good to have that, but I was able to look at it on my phone and made my wife drive. But let me see in terms of getting you a formal answer on that, sir.
The only thing I'll add to that, and this is more for comedic value, I have SiriusXM in my car, and my son makes fun of me about it. So I think there's definitely a disconnect between age of customer, so.
I love my SiriusXM.
I do too.
Yeah. We've seen a lot of your dealer peers branch out beyond the States to other continents, Europe, namely. Can you talk about maybe any ambitions that exist within the organization to move into non-continental U.S. from an opportunity perspective?
I mean, it's public knowledge. We did look at an M&A opportunity that was outside of the continental U.S. We will always be very aggressive and diligent about those opportunities as they present themselves. I think specific to the composition of OEMs as part of any transaction is hugely important to us that they align with our overall mix and model of strategy, and I think we'll continue to do so. I mean, as you opened and mentioned some of the highlights of AutoNation through the years, namely the share repurchase, one of the things that is absolutely a part of the strategy in moving to a traditional warehouse and ABS is to maintain that capital flexibility to be able to seize on M&A opportunities as they present themselves. We're looking at those opportunities pretty consistently. I have a team that is focused on that.
As those things continue to manifest, whether they're here in the U.S. or abroad, we absolutely will be a player in those conversations.
The DNA of this symposium has its roots in the aftermarket. Parts and service has been a tremendous driver of growth and subsequently cash flow for AutoNation. Maybe, Derek, talk about maybe some tools that you have now that didn't exist 5, 10 years ago that you can use to have a greater share of wallet capture in this aftermarket lifecycle for a customer.
Yeah. I'd start the complexity of the vehicles plays in our favor, particularly with electric vehicles where you really haven't had a build-out of the independent third-party aftermarket for that. We are seeing better loyalty on the electric vehicles as people come in. But one of the things that we're doing, and actually, Mario saw this when he was at our BMW dealership, is we're doing videos of it. So when your car comes in and we're doing a multi-point inspection, we'll show you what the video is. And we're actually running them. We're having our techs do it as opposed to our service techs because the thought is this is the guy who's fixing the car, who's the expert on it, and he's running you through what you have there.
Okay, this is where your tires are. You're going to want to take a look at these next time you're in because your treads come down or looking at where your calipers are for your brakes or different filters and just explaining it to you. And just having that video go out to people, we did it with pictures and with videos. We're seeing really good open rates by the consumer on that. And it forms that relationship with the service tech because when you buy a car from us, we want you to come back and service it with us. We want you to continue to do that. And then we want to buy that car back from you and give you another one. We'll sell you another one on the other end. So that's probably been one of the biggest pushes that we've seen from a technology standpoint.
I don't know. Anything else you'd add, Jeff?
We've just gone through a reorganization of what we call our BDC, Business Development Centers. I think that from a technology standpoint, we've layered in, again, a new phone system, things of that nature that are allowing a better relationship between the customer from a service perspective, and when I say service, I mean customer service, not necessarily the servicing of the car that I think will create some stickiness in that relationship to a greater degree than even Derek has mentioned.
Last one for me, just staying with this theme. Is this creating a situation where you're now seeing an older vehicle potentially than you otherwise would have coming back to AutoNation base?
It's funny you mentioned that. We're still pretty much at historic norms on the consumer that services at our dealerships. But shortly after the acquisition of CIG, AutoNation made another acquisition, which at the time was called RepairSmith, which has now been rebranded AutoNation Mobile Services. And as that business has continued to grow over the last, call it, 15-18 months, we've seen the revenue continue to increase. And that is attracting a consumer who historically is either a little further away from our dealerships and is no longer coming back to it or has an older car and no longer sees the value in coming to a franchise store, but absolutely sees the value in having the repair come to them either at home or work.
So we're excited about that business. It's very early in the growth of it, but we think that allows us to create some connectivity with the customer to a larger degree than AutoNation has ever had because there is a breakage rate at a point in time where that customer does not come back to the franchise anymore.
We're bumping up against time. I want to thank you, Jeff and Derek. Obviously, thank you very much for being here. A great opportunity with AutoNation stock as well, and look forward to seeing this AutoNation Finance business grow. Thank you.
Thank you very much.