Everybody for joining us. I'm Ben Bienvenu, I cover the food and agribusiness sector here at Stephens. The Andersons is here with us today to talk about their business. The Andersons, you know, they, they occupy assets across the value chain from originating grains, processing grains through their ethanol plants, and then running a robust and growing plant nutrient and fertilizer wholesale business. From the company today is Brian Valentine, CFO, and Bill Krueger, CEO and President. Thrilled to hear your insights today.
Sure.
Thanks for your time. This will be a Q&A format that I'll lead the fireside, but if there are questions, feel free to chime in and we'll accommodate those certainly. So I think, you know, maybe a good place to start, when we were here this time last year, we were talking about your thoughts on where we are in ag cycle. Fast-forward a year, we're seeing some things loosening, but still weather is at play in a couple different geographies. Maybe help us think about where you think we are in ag cycle broadly, and your views on kind of the duration of what's to come.
Sure. That's a good place to start. Welcome, everyone. Thanks. I would tell you, as ag cycles kinda ebb and flow, we're, we're certainly off the peak where producers were getting $6-$6.50 on farm price for their corn. And, you know, today, we're, we're forecasting the next couple of years to be just right at $5, maybe slightly under, which is still a lot higher than we were 2017, 2018, 2019, where it was $3.40-$3.50 a bushel. So, so we feel like we're still somewhere on the upper 2/3 of the cycle.
A few things that have us thinking that this current cycle will last longer is simply the fact that we're adding a lot of soybean crush to the United States somewhere around 20%-25%, which will create more domestic demand for soybeans. Corn exports, I'm sure we're gonna talk about that here later, you know, still hanging in somewhere around two billion bushels. So it feels like ag cycle with the increased demand, ongoing weather issues, we can talk about South American weather later, but it still feels like it's pretty it's gonna be pretty good for the next two to three years.
After that, you know, there's a lot of questions around RD, renewable diesel, and the demand pull for soybeans, the supply of soybean oil, and what that's gonna unfold. But today, I'd tell you the next 24-36 months feels pretty good.
Maybe just to add to that a little bit, one of the things that we would say, and Ben, you've heard us talk about this before, so it's hard to believe it's been almost five years since The Andersons' acquisition of Lansing Trade Group. But that has really been a really complementary asset and investment for our portfolio, because really, The Andersons historically was predominantly, call it 2/3 grain assets and grain origination, and more eastern grain belt centric, whereas Lansing was probably 70%-80% point-to-point trading and merchandising, and more western footprint. So the complementary nature of that, we feel like sets up the business to perform well in either type of market. So you think about wheat, where basis income is coming back into play.
And so between that trading and merchandising and that carry, we feel like our, we're set up to perform well really in either of those conditions.
Yeah, that turned out to be a well-timed, great acquisition for the market we've had, looking back the last few years. Maybe thinking about the market that we have, prospectively coming in the next few years, talk about the asset base and how you would compare and contrast The Andersons and what you bring to bear for investors relative to the other big public ag options out there.
Yep. So over that same time period that Brian was just talking about, I feel like we've done a good job of eliminating or disposing of our assets that were either duplicative in nature post-transaction, or assets that we just didn't think fit our footprint going forward. Today, with around 180 million bushels of elevation space in North America, we feel like we're right-sized. The assets that we have are performing. As Brian and Ben just talked about, the move from an inverted market where your grain elevators don't pay the returns, to a carry market where we have very nice carries in the soft wheat market today, we have decent carries in corn. You know, that's gonna really benefit the investors with the elevation capacity that we have.
Along with that is the customer base, the end user base that we have, primarily in North America, still needs to buy as much of their commodity inputs as they did previously. So we feel like, going forward, although some of the merchandising opportunities might not be quite as good, when you couple our end user base and our elevation capacity, we feel like we're set up really well, for what does look like it'll be a carry market, for the next two years.
I think when we think about some of the things that are unique, and we think about some of the other large public ag companies, obviously some of them are 10, 20 times our size, right? They're enormous. We're not big into soy crushing and processing. Yes, we have the ethanol plants, but we do go across the whole North American ag supply chain. I mean, if you think about it, if you go from fertilizer inputs, and then you go into corn origination, you go all the grain handling, and then you take that all the way through renewables and processing. So it's really that end-to-end in the North American ag supply chain.
We are more North American centric, and then so we don't have the massive global footprint, but I think that's that uniqueness of being across the whole, the whole ag supply chain is something that we, that we think is, is a good thing.
So you've pruned assets and portfolio over the last several years, you've de-leveraged the business. You've begun to deploy growth CapEx into the business. You've ramped up M&A a bit as well.
Mm.
How should we be thinking about capital allocation over the next several years, particularly as you look to, you know, achieve your goal of $475 million EBITDA by 2025? Help us think about your priorities within your businesses that you have today, and the sort of returns that you're looking for.
Yeah, that's, maybe I'll start off, and then.
Sure.
Certainly Bill can provide a lot of color on the businesses. We feel really good about where our balance sheet is positioned today. We've really, as you said, Ben, I mean, we tend to look at long-term debt to EBITDA as a capital structure metric that we target. We target to be below 2.5x . We're currently closer to 1.5x . You know, we tend to look at the long-term portion because our short-term revolver borrowings can be used to fund a lot of short-term working capital needs, and if we think about the seasonality of our business. Our capital expenditures this year, we expect to be in the range of $125 million-$150 million.
I will say we'll probably be toward the higher end of that range. About half of that is maintenance capital, the other half is growth. And we really feel really good about the pipeline process that we have in place. We have The Andersons' growth process, we call it. It's not anything scientific, it's a stage gate process, but it really brings that discipline, 'cause we have our teams really focused on the right projects that will drive earnings and cash flows and appropriate returns for our investors. And there's a lot of projects that go through that pipeline. Some of them get killed really early, some of them go far along, but we're not gonna overpay. There's been a lot of competing dollars over the past several years, especially when interest rates were lower.
Now, we're seeing some of that tightening up a bit. But we're gonna make sure that we're making the allocation decision and it's gonna be in our core verticals. Bill can talk about more of some of the projects in a second. I would say it's a balanced approach. You know, if we think about that target that's out there, we've said that we expect about half of that growth in EBITDA to come from organic growth and some of the growth capital projects, and half the other half from M&A. Like I said, we have a lot of projects that go through that pipeline. It's frustrating at times when you aren't able to bring them home, but at the same time, it's the right answer for shareholders, and we need to maintain that discipline.
Maybe, Bill, you want to talk about some of the key projects?
Yeah. Brian's spot on with where we've built our balance sheet to. We're very excited. And one benefit of coming off of the peak of ag cycle is that our balance sheet is very strong, and we think that there will be opportunities for us to be able to make acquisitions, maybe at multiples that feel more comfortable to The Andersons, driving higher ROICs for our investors. Specifically, in trade, we're staying with the plan that we've had the last four years, which is really focused on increasing our ag supply chain. Asset light investments that bring value to both our merchandising business and our current asset footprint. That's our focus. On the renewable side, for us, it's pretty simple. Anything low CI for our ethanol plants, we're very interested in.
We also really like the renewable diesel feedstock business. As Brian mentioned, we're not going to be the largest soybean oil supplier, but in terms of all the other feedstocks, primarily the low-CI feedstocks, we feel like we have a competitive advantage and we'll be able to grow, specifically in those two areas for our renewable space. On plant nutrient, we really wanna grow our farm center presence in the Eastern Corn Belt. We would like to grow either our wholesale and/or, depending on the acquisition, our specialty liquids business, kinda anywhere in the U.S. With our western presence today, we feel like there's opportunities there. We have deep roots in the East, with our wholesale fertilizer and specialty liquids business. So those are kind of the three paths that we're staying focused on.
And I think even, you know, we have had some successes over the past few years. If you think about, t here's some of it that could be done more internally. If you think about the way the renewable diesel feedstock profit center has started to evolve, you know, that's, that was a place where it would be fixed asset light, it was done internally. You bring some of your really strong talent together, and they build that. And, you know, last year, we traded and merchandised nearly a billion pounds. And we have a goal to target to get that to two billion pounds. But then you think about some of the things that we've talked about in the premium and pet food ingredient area, where we talk about Bridge Agri and ACJ International.
Some of these, you know, sometimes we'll hear Pat talk about them as singles and doubles. These are smaller businesses, but when they're complementary to each other and they fit well together, suddenly you have a $5 million or $10 million or $15 million EBITDA business that you just kind of keep successfully bringing those together.
Mm.
And make progress toward the goal. So.
Do you find a lot of competition in the marketplace for those size assets? Yeah, how would you characterize that?
I think the answer is, it depends. When they're an auction-type situation, that we tend not to do as well in those types of situations. But when they're somewhere where we've had a long-term relationship, or maybe it's a family owner who really wants their legacy to continue, and maybe it's something that fits, whether it's geographically or it's complementary to some of our current portfolio, those can fit really well. And sometimes it's somebody that wants to stay on and continue to work a few more years, and then maybe it's structured as an earn-out, so they have some upside potential. So I would say when it's that person who wants that legacy to continue and wants their business to remain intact with a really good company and owner, then those work well.
Auctions, probably not as much. I don't know, Bill, if you have anything to add to that.
Yeah, we're always looking for a culture fit with acquisitions and then the complementary nature to our current businesses.
Okay. So I wanna pivot a little bit and talk about some of the fundamentals in your business that we've been seeing. Maybe just starting with what has been a pretty sizable move in corn basis from 3Q to 4Q. How are you positioned in relation to that across your businesses, and what does that portend for your results in, you know, fourth quarter and first quarter of next year?
Right. You know, our 4Q and 1Q, always of the following year, is always a when do you get the corn in? You know, we were talking this morning, the U.S. corn crop is 88% harvested. Michigan, where we have a large presence, and Northern Ohio, is 30%-50% harvested. So, you know, we need, we need to make sure that we get the corn crop finished. We're very excited about the size of the corn crop in the Eastern Corn Belt this year. But you are right.
You know, much like the last couple of years, we've seen the eastern corn basis really get soft coming into harvest, and it's continued to get weaker, while the western corn basis, again, with all the excess or increased demand that we've had, we've already seen it kind of bottom out and start to rally back. And that's, again, not to always talk about the same thing, but that's one value that The Andersons brings, having real strong merchandising and operations in both the Eastern Corn Belt and the Western Corn Belt. So, you're spot on, on how the corn basis has kinda ebbed and flowed.
I would tell you that, for our ethanol plants in the East, the corn basis today, the value of the corn, when you look at board crush, has been very good for us.
Yeah, and we talk about the, y ou know, three of our four facilities are located in the East. And you think about also where they're located with regard to all the end user demand and draw. So that's—we feel really, really good about that once again.
Okay, you've got now a market backdrop as well, where wheat market's in a carry, corn market's in a slight carry. Maybe talk to us a little bit about how you expect to realize returns against that, and what your expectations are for that sustaining into this next year.
Yep. So the wheat market, as many of you may know, you know, the soft wheat or Chicago wheat deliveries for The Andersons is one of our key pillars of focus. And, with the current storage rates on the CME, that's very good for The Andersons. In fact, we had a very nice, a big, soft wheat crop that was good quality that we were able to buy, and, you know, we've been able to take advantage of that. And, on the corn side of the equation, the more the corn that we can get at harvest with the carries that we see today, should provide a lot of value into 2024 for the company.
We're very strategic in how much corn we buy and at what values we buy it at.
Okay. Maybe talking a little bit about the demand that you're seeing. I know Brazil was very competitive this last year. Now there are weather concerns around planting in Brazil. What are you guys seeing? You know, we've seen big upticks in soybean exports as of late.
Yep.
And, and demand. Maybe talk a little bit about that and, the things that you all are really focused on as we move through the next several months.
Right. You know, one other point that I didn't hit on as much on the export side of the business, the difference between us and the large multinationals is, you know, we don't have nearly the size of export business that many of our competitors do, and we view that as an asset. You know, you have years like we just finished with the Brazilian corn crop. Brazilian corn was very, very competitive pretty much everywhere in the world, other than U.S. domestic demand. So, you know, you're right on the fact that we're very dry in the northern part of Brazil, the Mato Grosso area. We're very wet in the southern part of Brazil. Argentina's dry in general.
One thing that the market's not starting to talk about yet is the Safrinha corn crop, the second corn crop that comes off. There's no doubt in our mind that that crop's going to be smaller. It's just a function of how much smaller, and what that will do for potential increased U.S. exports, demand globally. So that's probably the number one area in the corn market that we're paying attention to in South America right now. On the soybean side of the equation, you know, it's really going to, in our mind, focus on the amount of soybean crush capacity coming online, most of it in the later parts of 2024.
What that's gonna do with the increased meal and driving the U.S. soybean meal market to export parity with Argentina. You know, that's still has to be played out. Soybean meal, w ell, the whole soy complex has already reacted to the weather situation in South America. So as that unfolds over the course of calendar year 2024, we're really excited about some of the opportunities it's going to provide us.
I wanna talk about ethanol, but.
Mm-hmm.
Before we do, I'd love to hear you talk a little bit more about the specialty ingredients, specialty grains business. There are a couple, those were a few of the singles and doubles.
Mm-hmm, right.
Of opportunities. Maybe talk about the margins associated with those businesses, the relative stability, and then just how big is that bucket of opportunity to go after relative to some of the other opportunities you have?
The one of the areas that we really pride ourselves in is focusing on what our customers want and need.
Mm.
You know, whether, you know, it's the CPG companies really focusing on, sustainability, traceability back to the, producer, or even just improving, the quality of grain that they're buying. We're focused more on pet food, in, in that area. We do have a nice food corn business, that, also, provides the exact same, process. So that's probably one of the shifts that we've seen over the last two years. One other shift, and this has been real interesting for us, is the amount of premium pet food.
Mm-hmm.
That's getting sold is reducing to more of the generic pet food, and it's, much of it's related to the inflation.
Mm.
And what the consumer is able to pay for their pet food. Other areas that we've been focused on for a number of years is the pulse crops. And again, we focus primarily on the pulse crops going into pet food with a little bit of human consumption contracts. But the size of it is, it feels like it continues to grow more and more each year. To Brian's comment, there's still a lot of smaller private companies in that space that can provide a consolidation opportunity.
But I think one of the things that's been nice in our premium ingredient and pet food ingredient business is that it's been really a balance of the growth. So there's been a few acquisitions that have happened that we've talked about, but there's also been some internal growth projects, like some food-grade corn and some corn cleaning up, and yeah, et cetera, et cetera, corn cleaning. There's been a nice mix of internal growth capital projects together with some of these singles and doubles acquisitions that have been. It's been nice to see, and we just have to keep that, that momentum going in that area.
You touched on the veg oils trading desk, the renewables feedstock business. As you seek to grow that, is that a human capital investment? Is that a hard capital investment? And what are the governors or gating factors on continuing to build out that business? And then I'll ask a follow-up just on how you see the growth curve on RD, because there's been fits and starts thus far.
Mm-hmm.
Yeah.
The first part of that question is we see a lot of runway in the RD feedstock business, and it is going to be a combination of human capital, fixed asset capital.
Mm-hmm.
Again, most likely, focusing on pretreatment, focusing on the aggregation of low CI feedstock. We really think that runway runs at least through 2027, with higher margin results than, you know, some of our other core businesses. It is very dynamic. And the one thing that sometimes people don't consider when they're talking about the low CI RD feedstock is the international part. This isn't just a play in the U.S., this play is global. We're focused on Europe also. So this is much more than just focusing how to go from, t o answer your question, you know, we estimate about 3.5 billion gallons of production today.
Currently running somewhere in the 78%-80% range is where we believe the RD plants are running. We think that's gonna grow to just under 60%, you know, 55%-60%, depending on a number of factors. You know, we suspect that the plants will always try to run at 80% or more. So yeah, that's one of the areas that we have a lot of focus on and feel like we bring a competitive advantage.
I think at the macro level, and Bill said this earlier, we'd like to see it be a combination of both. I mean, if you think about, yes, there's the renewable diesel feedstock trading and merchandising, but then there's also the corn oil production, there's the corn oil pretreat and cleanup, and, you know, some of the things that we're doing there. So I think we'd like to see it be a nice balanced combination of all the above in that space, 'cause there's a lot of activity and momentum.
To follow up on a point that Brian made earlier, you know, this business was at zero for The Andersons three years ago. In 2022, we merchandised a billion pounds. In 2023, we're gonna be very close, if not exceeding two billion. So when you see growth like that in a company like The Andersons, it gets a lot of attention, and we're excited, and we're putting the right resources towards it.
Okay, maybe shifting gears a little bit and thinking about the ethanol business. Fundamentals have been still good.
Yep.
And into the fourth quarter, certainly relative to historical seasonality.
Mm-hmm.
Maybe talk a little bit about the environment that you're seeing and, you know, the degree of sustainability that you view. If I think about characterizing you historically, you've probably been more cautious than optimistic. So where do you sit on that spectrum today?
You are correct. 2023 has been a very interesting year from where we started to where we got to over the summer. The key fundamental to being successful in producing ethanol is plant efficiency. Minimizing your run times, making sure that you have the plant in top operating condition, and you're able to manage your expenses. And then when you couple what The Andersons' core skills are in procuring corn at the lowest possible price, understanding the feed market for the distillers, understanding the DCO market, i.e., renewable diesel and the feed market, and then having a seasoned track record of selling the ethanol, you know, it is a good spot for The Andersons to be.
And, and we have a pretty, pretty strong focus on what we're gonna do with ethanol plants going forward. So, yeah, I, I, I am positive. I do think that as we continue to increase our blend rate, we're gonna finish somewhere around 10.4%, maybe a little higher this year. As that continues to increase, and we do believe it will, continue to increase, and as long as we don't see a major shift globally, we believe that we're gonna continue to see exports from the U.S. increase. So, the, the fundamentals for ethanol today, as long as you can run your plants properly, I, I think it's very strong.
Yeah, I mean, there's so many factors to go into the ethanol, you know, the profitability and the ethanol prices, right? And so, yes, we talk about a lot about corn, and we talk about corn basis, but there's energy costs, and there's plant running costs, and there's driving demand, and on and on and on. I think, you know, as Bill said, we wanna run the most efficient plants as possible and have them be low-cost producers, have them be top quartile, top decile type plants, and be well located. And then obviously, longer term, continuing to take steps to reduce the CI scores for those plants. And I think if you do that, the other question that comes to mind, and we don't know the answer to that, you're right, the past few years have been really robust.
The question is, is that with some of the new demand drivers, is there just, call it, a new floor at some point as things like all the RD feedstock and SAF and all these things come into, come into play? And, you know, time will tell on that. But again, we're gonna continue to, to focus on, on maximizing our facilities and, and production.
That's a perfect segue to the next question. I wanna ask a little bit about the Inflation Reduction Act, your views on kind of the key milestones that we need to see for you to feel more solidified in your optimism around it, and how you see your asset base benefiting from this. You know, if you could talk about the CI scores of your facilities, the opportunities you have to lower the CI scores, and yeah, just generally your views on the IRA.
Yeah, it's changed a lot of ethanol companies' strategy. And, you know, the one thing that I always caution people on is the IRS has not drafted the rules yet. We think that it'll be done, most likely in the last half of 2024. But knowing what we know today, we are advancing kinda on all four of our plants, and we'll talk about growth opportunities later. But I really, I think that the IRA, whether you wanna talk about the 45Z, which is the $0.02 a gallon for every point below 50, or the 45Q, which is focused on carbon sequestration and utilization, it's a real opportunity for the ethanol industry to reduce its CI.
You know, knowing that sustainable aviation requires the CI in ethanol to be substantially lower in order to get the SAF, the total product below 50. It is a real focus and a real opportunity, but until we know exactly. So your stage gate is for ethanol specifically making sure that you have a path to a lower CI, making sure that you understand, is the 45Z going to end in 2027? And those are all the different focus or specific stage gates that we need to continue to commit more and more capital. But we do think it will happen.
We feel like we have a pretty good pulse on what the IRS is gonna end up driving in their regulations. So yeah, it's gonna provide a lot of opportunity.
Yeah, I mean, it's clear that there's a large driver to have sustainable aviation fuel become, you know, a replacement. And, renewable diesels, diesel and ethanol, I think both have a key role in there. It feels like ethanol is an important factor, and as Bill said, I mean, it's gonna, I think, Bill, is it fair to say, it'll take carbon sequestration to be able to drive the CI scores down.
Yeah.
Where they need to be to meet the needs of this? And so it's, but it's a lot of unknowns. I mean, Bill talked about the 45Qs and 45Zs and the timelines, and, you know, there's gonna be questions about where they're reported above the line, below the line. But at the end of the day, there's a lot of opportunity for some meaningful returns and good cash generation from this.
You all made some progress on increasing your corn oil yields in your ethanol facilities. Can you talk a little bit about where you are on the evolution of that? We've had a softer veg oil market as of late. Maybe if you could offer your thoughts on what we're seeing there, and then maybe how that, if at all, impacts any decisions that you make around continued kind of oil extraction initiatives.
Yeah, we're pretty much, w ell, we are baked at all four plants.
Yeah.
The process that I talked about last year at this conference, the TruDCO.
Mm-hmm.
Which takes the metals out of the corn oil and helps in the pretreatment process for RD. They're implemented at all four plants. They're commercialized, they're contracted. So we're kind of baked on our process for increasing the value of DCO. You're right, with the RD market kind of starting and stopping, starting and stopping a little bit with plants, it's created some downward pressure. I think there's some other factors including imported product that is driving some of that. Feed demand is somewhat consistent. But yeah, again, our thoughts are, as long as you are as competitive as anyone else in the space in each of the different factors, as Brian mentioned, you're gonna be successful over the long haul.
Mm-hmm.
We've kind of demonstrated that. We think that this TruDCO process is something that has an extended shelf life until we get pretreatment at more of the RD plants.
Maybe thoughts on why we've seen softer soybean oil prices and veg oil prices as of late?
Yeah, I'd again, it's kind of the same thing. It's been the focus on RD demand, a little bit on exports and feed demand, but I really think that that's been the main driver of the entire veg oil landscape.
You know, the renewables segment, you know, if I'm not mistaken, the veg oils trading desk sits inside of that segment.
Mm-hmm.
You know, irrespective of the growth of that business, you know, if, if I'd surveyed you three or four years ago, you maybe, that wouldn't have been a segment you would have been allocating a disproportionate amount of capital to.
Right.
How are you thinking about allocating capital to that segment today, and rank ordering your priority?
Yeah. Ethanol plants that are 140 million gallons or, you know, 120 million gallons and above, that have an opportunity to figure out a way to sequester carbon, it is something that we're very interested in. We, we see a pathway where there's gonna be continued demand for ethanol, whether it's in SAF, driving demand, and so we just—exports, we, we believe that that's a good place to deploy capital. That's gonna be cost dependent on, on the renewable side, is it more efficient, more volume of ethanol, or are we gonna continue to build out our RD feedstock business? It's really gonna be a little bit price dependent because we feel like both of them are core competencies.
I do think it was probably two years ago at this conference we did set up a strategy—actually, I'm wrong there, it was in 2021, of figuring out ways that our renewable business can grow outside of the four walls of the ethanol plant. We talked about that, and, you know, that strategic move has kind of gotten us to where we're at today in the renewable space.
Maybe as an addendum to that, do you think it's possible we see the industry build more ethanol capacity as SAF becomes more material factor, or is it way too premature to say that?
It is too premature. Will you see ethanol plants add capacity? Yeah, I think we're already seeing that. New build ethanol plants are gonna be very expensive in 2024 dollars. So I guess I'd be surprised on new builds. I do think that plants will continue to figure out ways to add capacity where they can produce a low CI ethanol.
Okay. We touched on SAF as a big, you know, kind of sea change driver for your business. Maybe help us think about the timeline when you see that becoming more material, and then in relation to that, your willingness to move early versus, you know, more slowly in relation to that factor.
The timeline is, it's kind of a guess. We need to continue to improve the technology on ethanol to jet. And today, HEFA, which is the product that comes out of the RD plants, is more competitive. Now, there's size constraints in the amount of HEFA that we believe the RD industry can provide to the airline. And so the first stage is gonna be understanding the sequestration process or any opportunities to reduce CI coming out, CI in the ethanol, and the biggest one is sequestration. Utilization, which we have three of our plants have utilization contracts already for a percentage of our CO2. But so it's gonna go understanding sequestration, understanding the reduction of SAF over that continuum of time. We know technology's gonna get better.
There's just too much focus on it today. Then, you know, our partner, Marathon, has a pretty keen interest in understanding of that market. So I think telling you what day or what year that there will be material ethanol to jet for the SAF industry, I think is a, it's a, it's a little premature, but it's not before 2027. And it may be, I, I'm talking scale. So 2027, 2028 is, is, if I had to guess today, then I, I think it will be material.
And I think to your point, Ben, but from a technology perspective, we're not gonna be the technology leaders in some of this stuff. We're gonna be fast followers. We're gonna be well prepared. I mean, I was gonna say it feels like it's probably three to five years out, which kind of aligns in that timeframe. So it's not here yet today, but we're gonna continue to invest in our facilities and improve yield and gain efficiencies and lower the CI score, and just keep doing all those things to scale so that we're well positioned. And then, you know, even if the industry does further build out, again, the facilities that are gonna perform the best are gonna be the top top-tier facilities with the low CI scores.
Yeah. Okay. I don't wanna leave out the plant nutrient.
Yeah.
Industrial business. Last but not least, can you talk about the opportunities you see there to deploy M&A capital, grow organically? I know you've had success with farm center growth as well. Maybe give us some sense of where that stands.
Yeah. Today, I would tell you, the biggest area that has M&A opportunity is farm centers, farm centers in the East. Our ability to grow organically with our specialty liquids business has been pretty impressive, and I think we're gonna continue to do that. On the wholesale side, it's gonna be a combination of organic growth, applying some of the characteristics of the combined trade group to our wholesale fertilizer business, and then looking for the one-off opportunities to add just more capacity, more products. Focusing on some of the more carbon-friendly fertilizer plays is an area that we're doing a lot of research.
We haven't made any acquisitions yet of size, and so that's an area where we're, o ur R&D is really focused on trying to understand the overlap around the less carbon-intensive fertilizers.
I mean, we tend to be very focused. If you think about the wholesale and farm center portion of that business, it's that Ohio, Indiana, Michigan footprint area. We'd love to do more to continue to expand that footprint. We'd love to see a network of, you know, eight, 10, 12 farm centers. We're not gonna compete on scale with, you know, Nutriens of the world or anything like that, and that's not what we're aspiring to do. We feel like there's a lot of good, unique opportunities there, but again, we're gonna continue to stay focused on the ones that are fit. Why are we a better owner of the asset? How does it fit with our footprint, and how do we drive the right returns?
And then maybe lastly, I'd love to hear your view on the outlook for that business as we move forward. I know maybe it's a difficult time to kind of comment on the outlook, but if not for kind of the external factors, what initiatives are you driving to be, you know, more efficient, drive profitability in that segment?
Yeah. The external factors are a very large driver.
Yeah.
Of the outcome. I would tell you that the key focus on just driving more efficient operations in our turf and contract carrier business, driving growth with the current human capital base that we have. I think that that business today can grow in areas without adding a lot of overhead and finding the right deal. So I would tell you, it's more about widening our lens on more geographic and more different products that we can grow in, because I believe that we have the right setup inside the company today. We've had a lot of changes in that business over the last three years, and it feels like we're right sized for the management team to grow.
Yeah, and I would say if we think about some of the projects and focus areas we have, there's still a lot of, call it manual work that's done, and the economics, call it maybe five years ago, didn't make sense to put in automation in some of the plants. Now, some of those projects are making a lot more sense, and so there's real efficiency opportunities from an automation perspective in some of our facilities that we're taking a hard look at and moving forward on.
Okay. Great. Bill, Brian, thanks for your time today. Appreciate it.
Thank you, Ben. Appreciate it.