Greetings. Welcome to Asure Software's Third Quarter Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during today's conference, please press star zero from your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. At this time, I'll now turn the conference over to Patrick McKillop, Vice President. Patrick, you may now begin your presentation.
Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Asure's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Following the close of the markets, we released our financial results. The earnings release is available on the SEC's website and our investor relations website at investor.asuresoftware.com, where you can also find the investor presentation. During our call today, we will reference non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe to be useful to investors, and exclude the impact of certain items. The description and timing of these items, along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to their most comparable GAAP measures, can be found in our earnings release. Today's call will also contain forward-looking statements that refer to future events and as such, involve some risks.
We use words such as expects, believes, and may to indicate forward-looking statements, and we encourage you to review our SEC filings with the SEC for additional information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. I will hand the call over to Pat in a moment, but I just wanted to take a moment to remind folks of some upcoming investor relations activities. We will be participating in the TD Cowen HCM Conference tomorrow, November 14th, with virtual 1-on-1 meetings. On November 15th, we will be attending the Roth MKM Technology Conference in New York, and on November 16th, we will be attending the 14th Annual Craig-Hallum Alpha Select Conference in New York, plus participating in the 13th Annual Needham Virtual SaaS 1-on-1 conference.
The management team will use a split squad to cover both events on November 16th to make sure we can accommodate all investors' meeting requests. Investor outreach is very important to Asure, and I would like to thank all those that assist us in our efforts to connect with investors. Finally, I would like to remind everyone that this call is being recorded. It will be made available for replay via the link available on the Investor Relations section of our website. With that, I would now like to turn the call over to Pat Goepel, Chairman and CEO. Pat?
Thank you, Patrick, and welcome everyone to Asure Software's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. I'm joined on this call by our CFO, John Pence, and we'll provide a business update for the quarter and our outlook for the remainder of 2023, plus our guidance for 2024. Following our remarks, we'll be available to answer your questions. As you can see from our reported results, our strong momentum continued in the third quarter, with strength coming from solid execution across the business. Our revenue growth in the third quarter was 34% versus the prior year period, which was almost entirely organic. Recurring revenues grew 19% versus the prior year period, and our non-recurring revenues were up by $3.6 million versus the prior year period, once again, driven by ERTC revenue strength.
We will discuss more detail on ERTC once we get to our updated guidance, which we gave in today's press release. Our HR compliance revenues and Asure Marketplace revenues both showed very strong growth during the quarter versus the prior year period, and we're very excited about the future for these business lines. Over time, we believe that the Asure Marketplace can become 30% + of our total revenues, and it is a high-margin business, as is the HR compliance business. Additionally, interest revenues contributed to the growth in the quarter, and we're able to benefit from the rise in the yield curve, plus we benefited from consolidation of bank accounts, which drives higher investable balances.
We continue to build on our momentum by advancing our technology through leading partnerships and launching strategic sales initiatives, such as the bundling of our 401(k) products with payroll to drive new client additions. This particular initiative was launched a short time ago, and the reception we have received thus far has been very enthusiastic. Many small businesses traditionally have not had the resources to offer 401(k) retirement solutions, but approximately 22 states in the United States have mandated 401(k) plans for small businesses, and we expect more to pass similar mandates. The U.S. Government SECURE Act 2.0 aims to increase employee participation in retirement plans by funding the setup of employer-based retirement plans while providing the funding they need to do so, and Asure has the solutions employers need to set up the plan.
Our sales efforts in the third quarter produced a 26% increase in new sales bookings over and above the 91% increase we delivered last year. We've expanded our sales force during the year and been very pleased with the quality of the new hires we made. We're supporting our sales efforts with digital marketing, which is driving higher levels of sales leads and productivity in 2023. Based on our performance and our current expectations, we're guiding for fourth quarter revenues to be in the range of $25 million to $27 million, which excludes any potential revenues from ERTC filings. We are expecting our 2024 revenues to be in the range of $125 million to $129 million, with EBITDA margins of between 20% and 21%.
Our 2024 guidance also excludes any potential contributions from ERTC filings, but does include our plans to resume acquisitions in earnest. As many of you are aware, the IRS placed a pause on the processing of ERTC claims back in September to clamp down on some bad actors that were filing claims which should not have been filed. Asure is a processor of claims only, and we refer our clients to their tax advisors to see if they qualify for the ERTC credit. We continue to await further clarification from the IRS and expect the program will likely be resumed. However, given the uncertainty, we want to be conservative in our assumptions on ERTC revenue going forward. Now, I would like to hand it off to John to discuss our financial results in more detail. John?
Thanks, Pat. As Patrick mentioned at the beginning of this call, several of the financial figures discussed today are given on a non-GAAP or adjusted basis. You will find a description of these GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations in the earnings release that was made available earlier today. Reconciliations themselves are also included in our most recent investor presentation, posted in the Investor Relations section of our website at investor.asuresoftware.com. Now, on to the third quarter results. Revenue reached $29.3 million in the third quarter, rising by 34% relative to prior year period. Recurring revenues rose 19% relative to prior year period to $24 million. Third quarter recurring revenues grew on the strength of our HR compliance solutions, Asure Marketplace, and increased interest with revenues, with the average client balance exceeding $200 million in the quarter.
ERTC revenues were recorded in professional services, hardware, and other category in the current and prior year period. Non-recurring revenues saw an increase of $3.7 million on the strength of ERTC processing activity. Net loss for the third quarter was $2.2 million, a $2.3 million improvement over the prior year's loss of $4.5 million. Gross margins rose by 10 percentage points to 72% in the third quarter relative to the prior period, while non-GAAP gross margin rose 8 percentage points to 76%. EBITDA for the quarter was $3 million, up $1.7 million from prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA rose by $4.4 million relative to the prior year to $6.2 million, and our adjusted EBITDA margin reached 21% in the quarter, compared with 8% in the prior year period.
Margin expansion was driven by growing high-margin revenue streams, continued progress with our efficiency initiatives, and scale benefits from our growth. These gains more than offset the investments we are making in the expansion of our sales and marketing activities. We continue to believe there is substantial margin upside over the longer term as the business scales. We ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $32.8 million. During the quarter, we completed an equity capital raise for net proceeds of $43 million. We also paid off $30.9 million, which we had with Structural Capital. This payoff substantially enhances Asure's cash flow and is accretive to earnings and creates financial flexibility as we execute our stated strategy to deliver double-digit revenue growth by growing both organically and inorganically.
Now, in terms of guidance, for the fourth quarter, 2023 and 2024, we are guiding the fourth quarter revenues to be in the range of $25 million to $27 million, which, at the midpoint of the range, would equate to 19% growth year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter is anticipated to be between $2 million to $3 million. Revenues for the full year, 2023, are still expected to be in the range of $81 million to $120 million, with EBITDA margins between 19%-20%. Moving on to the 2024 guidance. We expect revenues to be in the range of $125 million to $129 million, with adjusted EBITDA margins of between 20%-21%.
As Pat mentioned in his comments earlier, each of these new guidance figures exclude any contribution from ERTC revenues, but assume a resumption of acquisitions. We are awaiting further clarification from the IRS pause that was placed on processing claims in September, and we feel that being more conservative is the best approach. We believe that the program will resume with some modifications to make the application process more stringent, and so there is a possibility that ERTC will contribute to revenues in 2024. The growth from our HR compliance, Asure Marketplace, as well as float revenues and our newly introduced 401(k) solution, are all expected to continue being strong contributors going forward. Additionally, our payroll tax management product has multiple shots on goal, with the platform being offered as a service to large enterprises as well as HCM vendors.
While the above mentioned are strong contributors to our growth, we also expect to drive growth through inorganic methods by acquiring businesses that we feel are attractive. Our growth profile going forward will be a mix of both organic and inorganic, which, with the recent capital raise and debt payoff, we have the flexibility to resume making smart, profitable acquisitions. In conclusion, we are pleased with our performance in the third quarter and the momentum we have built on the strength of product development, technology, and sales. This gives us confidence in our forward-looking guidance. We are excited about the remainder of 2023 and are looking forward to 2024 as potentially a breakout year for sure, in driving profitable growth and leveraging the initiatives we have implemented across the business to drive sustainable growth and creating shareholder value.
With that, I will turn the call back to Pat for closing remarks.
Thanks, John. We're pleased to continue to deliver growth in the third quarter, achieving 34% revenue growth. We achieved this growth by investing in products and technologies that make a difference for our clients. It's really gratifying to see the positive reception by our clients to our solutions, as it tells us we're creating value for them and enabling them to focus on their core businesses. Asure Marketplace is just getting rolling, and it's expected to contribute to our growth for the longer term. Its results to date have been meaningful contribution to our overall performance, and there's lots more to come. As I previously mentioned, the SECURE Act 2.0 gives small businesses the funding they need to implement 401(k) plans, which many states are mandating now, and we expect more to pass mandates as well.
Our recent sales initiative in bundling 401(k) with payroll has got an enthusiastic reception thus far, and it's only early days into that effort. We also anticipate demand for our HR compliance solutions will continue to be healthy, as businesses increasingly seek to supplement their internal capabilities with external experts who can help them navigate the increasing complexity of doing business day-to-day. Our guidance in the fourth quarter and 2024 both reflect our expectations for continued growth, which will be delivered with a combination of organic and or inorganic growth. Our margins have continued to improve as the business has scaled, and we have focused on improving efficiency across the business, which helps improve the cost structure.
In 2023, we've expanded the sales force as well as invested in the marketing initiatives, and we now feel the business is right-sized for future success as we enter 2024. We'll continue to provide innovative human capital management solutions that help small businesses thrive, human capital management providers grow their base, and large enterprises streamline tax compliance. Thank you for listening to the prepared remarks. So with that, I will send the call back to the operator for the Q&A session. Operator?
Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question at this time, please press star one from your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Thank you. And our first question is from the line of Joshua Reilly with Needham & Company. Please proceed with your questions.
All right, thanks for taking my questions, and, nice job on execution here in the quarter. I guess maybe starting off with the topic du jour here. Can you help us understand how you're thinking about and preparing for the range of possible outcomes with regards to the ERTC claims that you've already submitted and the accounting and cash flow, ramifications included in these expectations? And maybe some more color on how that impacts the 2024 guidance as you highlight in the press release.
Yeah, Josh, I'll take a first shot, and Pat can add to it. We have obviously seen a little slowdown in terms of cash coming in from the IRS and to our clients since September. Receivable balance is actually down quarter-over-quarter, so felt like we did a good job on the third quarter at least in collecting some of the prior monies that we had recognized for ERTC claims. As Pat said, I think we're trying to be pretty clear with regard to our guidance. For the fourth quarter, we've not included any revenue in the numbers that we guided to in terms of revenue, $25 million to $27 million.
F or the fourth quarter, for 2024, the $125 million to $129 million guide that we gave in terms of revenues also includes no incremental ERTC revenues. Now, we think that it's going to get turned back on, so there'll be some upside potentially to that guidance, but we didn't want to take it into account in terms of the near term, just because of the uncertainty as to when it's gonna get turned on and how it's gonna get turned back on. But that's kind of how we played it in at this point.
I would say a couple things. One, just I wanna point out, in our press release, the guidance was 125-127. We, you know, there was a typo there. It's 125-129, and verbally, we said that. We'll make that correction as quick as possible. As far as the guidance with ERTC, we're gonna follow the IRS's guidance. And, you know, we do believe that the program probably will turn on, but we'll wait for their guidance, and we wanted to take it out of the numbers just so there was no ambiguity and take a very conservative stance. That being said we are filing paperwork as we get it.
You know, we know that on behalf of our clients, it's in the queue, and when and if that resumes, you know, we'll process according to the IRS regulation.
Yeah, and put a little bit finer point, too, just on the fourth quarter guidance. If you think about last year, fourth quarter, without ERTC, we were roughly $22 million. There was approximately $7 million in the fourth quarter of last year. $2 million of it was in recurring and five million in the non-recurring line. So we're looking at $22 million, kind of relative to the $25 million to $27 million guidance. So we think, you know, the midpoint of that's kind of in the mid-teens growth. So it's kind of 14%-23% is what we're guiding towards in terms of growth quarter-over-quarter from prior year when we exclude ERTC.
So that's the. I think that's the real compare that we want people to kind of focus on is, if we're gonna take it out of the guide, you also need to take it out of the prior year compare. So we feel like we're a pretty healthy growth, but it is a little bit of a muddy story.
Got it. And then just another follow-up on the Q4 guidance. If you look at the implied Adjusted EBITDA margin, it's down sequentially, as you would probably expect, with a little bit of loss of leverage from the lower ERTC revenue. But why would it bounce back, maybe you can help us, in 2024 to kind of that, 20%-21% range? Thank you.
W e've been pretty consistent in this messaging. It's a scaled business, and we think if the revenue breaks, that's where we generate the adjusted EBITDA, right? W e're back in our guidance, in that again, for 2024, revenue guidance is $125-$129. We think that as those revenue breaks, we should be at 20%-21% adjusted EBITDA company. T his year's guide was $118-$120 in total for the year, producing 19%-20% adjusted EBITDA. So the, the composition of the revenues is not the, the key. It's really the absolute number, the absolute amount of revenues.
And so, you know, we're getting a little bit of that impact in the fourth quarter with the decline in revenues as a result of that, you know, lower ERTC revenue. But we think in absolute numbers, as that revenue gets back into that size, we can produce that amount of adjusted EBITDA.
A nd Josh, just as a footnote to that we make decisions six months ahead of, in many cases, of w here we're gonna go. Clearly, with ERTC, and if you think about the summertime, we know we wanted to expand the sales force to 120. We knew we wanted to do potentially a raise to get more aggressive in replacing ERTC revenue. We didn't know ERTC at the time was gonna happen so quickly. So, you know, our path doesn't change. The fourth quarter, we have made investments in salespeople, in tax filing. We've made investments in the technology area, and all that was planned, investments that we started to make over the summer.
When ERTC was halted or paused on September 14th, what we did is continue those investments, and we're really happy with the raise and the ability to play offense. But what that did in the fourth quarter is put a little pressure temporarily on EBITDA, and so we've called that out now that we've taken ERTC. And as John mentioned, as we get back to the revenue numbers of the 125-129, that EBITDA snaps back very nicely because it is a scale business.
Got it. Very helpful color. I'll pass it along the queue. Thank you.
Thank you, Josh.
Our next question is from the line of Bryan Bergin with TD Cowen. Please proceed with your questions.
Hi, guys. Thank you. Appreciate you providing an initial 2024 outlook here, just the middle of the uncertainty. As we try and unpack an apples to apples recurring growth rate implied in that 2024 outlook, can you give us a sense of what the grow-over pressure combined from the ERTC and the float revenue will be as you turn the calendar from 2023 to 2024?
Yeah, I think, you know, from my perspective, float shouldn't have a lot, it should be kind of flattish. In terms of ERTC, for the first nine months of this year, it's roughly $17 million that we have to grow over. So if you kind of think about what we're doing in terms of the guide and that $17 million of ERTC, we're probably 100, 102-ish exiting this year in recurring revenue or revenues. And so that 125 to 129 we're talking to really is a, you know, 25%-29% growth next year, again, just, and I think we made the point clear in our prepared remarks, that's gonna be a combination of both organic and inorganic.
So we've started putting, you know, some of the raised money to work, and we're gonna do some more of that in next year. So I think we've been pretty transparent on that. It's pretty consistent with the model we've been talking about over the years, right? It's in the IR deck. We expect to kind of be an inorganic and organic grower over time.
A nd the only thing I'd say, Bryan, is if you think about the $100 million or so that John mentioned, and then if you think about second quarter, it was a little over 20% repetitive growth. If you think about lapping into tough compares around, float you may have about 6% or so headwinds on the float. But as far as momentum in the business this quarter continued close to that 20%. Float would be a headwind, and the marketplace might be a little bit of a headwind on, on lapping growth compares.
But we feel really good about the sales motion and the repetitive revenue, and then that's why we've been adding to it, and feel that we can lap the year TC, compares with a combination of the organic, growth engine that we built, as well as, the tuck-in acquisitions that, you know, we're in a unique position to execute, and that's why we did the raise.
Okay. Okay, that makes sense. And I guess as you think about that organic versus inorganic, is it kind of relatively even mixed according to the long-term strategy, as you think about that 2024 view?
I think so. It'll be lumpy, right? It's not perfectly linear, so you're never gonna see it just line up 100% even, because you'll spike it once in a while with an acquisition. When I think about it, I do think it is a pretty healthy mix of both.
A nd we have really good visibility to double- digits organic growth. So, you know, we will, one of the reasons we did the raise is we wanna get aggressive with inorganic growth, and we feel like we have a pipeline of some pent-up demand. So while it might be lumpy, there's pretty good certainty on the revenue going forward.
Okay. Very good. If I could just squeeze one more in. Can you just comment on how client employment levels trended in the quarter?
Really about flat. I t's interesting. Small businesses still have more jobs than people, and there are certain industries that cannot get people hired, even today. What I would say is, there is a little bit of a white-collar recession, and there's pressure on that higher end. But I would say in small business, you know, we've had a mixture of some of pressure around the technology area and some of the higher- end employment. But I would say that blue-collar employment or in the areas of restaurant, in the areas of even trades, they can't get enough people. So, you know, the overall hiring's been about flat.
Seasonally, we would've expected maybe a little bit of an increase, but clearly, there's a want there to hire more employees if they can, if they can get them.
Okay. Thank you.
Our next question is from the line of Richard Baldry with Roth MKM. Please proceed with your questions.
Thanks. Can you talk about sort of the M&A pipeline then, seems to be factored in for 2024? You know, are you seeing reasonableness in what sellers are looking for and interest levels to take action on it? And just any sort of characteristics around that. And then maybe, you know, given we took down a lot of the debt in the quarter, when you look forward, what kind of terms or structures are you really trying to focus on? Would it be a lot less on the debt side, more on the cash and stock? How do we think about that in terms of equity dilution? Thanks.
Rich, a lot of questions in that question, so I'll try to unpack and John will jump in as well. But when, when I think about, first of all, the environment of small business payroll companies, the environment's pretty tough. First of all, our regional banks have stopped lending, so access to capital is, is the number one concern. Two, the payroll industry in general is getting regulated more and more by state money transmitter licenses, KYC, which is Know Your Customer, AML, BML, which is anti-money laundering, et cetera. So, you know, small businesses have a tough time keeping up legislatively. They have a tough time keeping up with the changing landscape of the laws.
They have a tough time keeping up with capital needed, and in some cases of ACA, some of the banks are requiring deposits that, you know, are tough to fund, especially if debt levels are tough to get. So the backdrop is that what I would say is, also, when you think about, you know, how they're gonna grow their business and what they look like, and interest rates going up, you know, very often they might be looking for a different exit strategy at this point in time to counter what they're going through, and, you know, we're a logical exit strategy for them. So we've had some conversation over the last couple years. We get with our retailers, and we get with our trusted partners a couple times a year, and many times you can telegraph that early on.
We did a subsequent acquisition that we put as an extension of the queue in October already. We do believe we have a pipeline. As far as multiples, you know, the multiples are reasonable and, and feel that they're starting to pull in given the backdrop. And then, you know, people are worried about potentially a recession or potentially a slowing down of the economy. So, we think it's the right time to continue to grow. And then for us, you know, we've been purposeful about, you know, kind of growing this business and calling out it's a scale business. The operational and technology initiatives that we've done to improve the bottom line and really grow margin here 10% over the last couple years, we're ready to handle that volume.
And so in many cases, luck is preparation meeting opportunity. We feel it's really a good time to go and be aggressive here. And, the pausing of ERTC has given us a catalyst as well to do that. So, those, you know, are some of the things of how we think about it. And then as far as, your last question around, you know, lending or cash or stock, you know, for us, we, you know, we have three levers. We have, cash, we have a seller note, which is important to us because it's a low-cost note, and it protects us on indemnification. And from a stock perspective, only if we feel that the acquisition could add value to us long term will we look at stock.
But we also, you know, have a little over $30 million in cash and feel that we have the ability to make some acquisitions. We do think the lending market, over time, will be more reasonable than it is, so that's a lever that we could add. But, some kind of cash, stock, and indemnification of a low-cost loan will continue to be our model.
Maybe flipping back to organic, you posted up a, I think it was 26% increase in bookings on top of 91 a year ago. Can you talk just generally about, you know, average tenure sort of capacity you feel like your utilization is, what's left, can you continue to grow, or do you think you really have to focus more on adding headcount to try to keep up the organic growth now? Thanks.
Yeah. Thanks, Rich, and, you know, we are adding from 100 sales reps to 120, and one of the reasons we're adding is, you know, we get people successful. We're gonna have over 50% of them at the summit that we have would say that, you know, that's a record number for us that, you know, are gonna go to the summit, and they've been successful. The training program we put together, the hiring of people, we've been able to attract really good what I'll call athletes in Asure, they've been successful. We also have a culture of mentoring, and it's done a really good job bringing people into the organization. So there's gonna be no slowing down of continue to grow.
And then, as you look at the model, and we've improved margins here, almost doubled margins the last couple years. Because we're starting to get scale, we wanna not only invest in our talent, but then also add more. And we believe that as we add more and get the more gross dollars, not only from productivity, but new people and the quality of the new people, that adds to the bottom line. So it's a multiyear commitment, but we feel really strong about it, and we're fortunate to be in a position to be able to do that.
Thanks.
Our next question is in the line of Brad Reback with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.
Great. Thanks very much. Heading back to 2024, the guide. From your commentary, is it correct to assume about $10 million-$15 million from acquisitions is in the $125-$129?
Yes.
Great, and the employment trends that you're modeling for 2024.
Put in, it's just flat. We've not taken anything down. We've assumed our employers are gonna stay relatively flat for 2024.
That's great. That's all I got. Thanks very much.
Thanks, Brad.
The next question is from the line of Jeff Van Rhee with Craig-Hallum. Please proceed with your questions.
Great, thanks for taking the questions. Pat, just, on the SECURE Act, maybe you talked about early traction. Can you put a little, a little oomph behind that? Any quantification, a little more color there would be helpful. And then on the, 26% growth in bookings, does that include or exclude ERTC? If it includes it, what was it ex-ERTC?
Yeah, just a couple things. First of all, your first question, Jeff, what's around? I apologize. Say that again.
The SECURE Act, you said you were off to a good start.
SECURE Act, and I'm sorry. You know, shortly after September 14th, which put a pause on ERTC, we've already begun to pivot towards SECURE 2.0 Act. And those that don't know about SECURE 2.0 Act, it's you know, really, as Social Security is gonna be challenged over the future years with retirement funding, you know, there's still many Americans out there today that don't have access to a 401 plan. And already now, with the SECURE 2.0 Act, the government will provide funding, not only to set up a 401 plan, but also provide funding in the area of tax credits to employer matches. And so we get people starting to save and create some independence in addition to Social Security, and that sliding scale of a match goes over five years.
That program's been adopted by 22 states already, and we anticipate that it will continue to be driven. And if you think about, you know, the data that we sit on, which has 401 deduction codes, and it also has forms like the 5500 to go over the plan, we're pretty, you know, pretty visible, and our offering already is around compliance. And from a compliance perspective, whether it's minimum wage, sexual harassment training for those states that require it, our HR compliance, our payroll taxes, our payroll wage and hour compliance is what we do and what we're skilled at. So we're going after those clients and those prospects in the states that have mandatory 401 plans.
We're excited to partner with Vestwell, which is also partnered with J.P. Morgan Chase, which we're partnered with on another company around our treasury management system. And so, you know, we're gonna go after 401 in a big way. I anticipate that, you know, we'll do in, you know, over 700 plans here next year. We'll already probably do something like 10% this year, and we have visibility around 70+ plans to sell here in the fourth quarter. I wouldn't be surprised if we beat that. The marketing qualified leads, the sales qualified leads, the interest level is really, really high, and we've only been doing this in a little bit over a month. So, people are pretty excited about the program.
As far as sales numbers, you know, the 26%, we have ERTC, and we'll start reporting bookings ex ERTC. We'll also do some with ERTC. Some are standalone. Going forward, you know, if we do book an ERTC deal, it would be a current client with a current product, so we'll provide a bigger breakout of that. But suffice to say, the 20%, 6% on ARR is really largely without ERTC because, you know. And we'll provide a bigger breakout of a definition of ERTC, because in it itself, ERTC was more of a one-time event than an ARR event. It did get kind of packaged, and we'll have to kind of more have a nuanced breakout for you in future quarters.
The 26% ARR bookings is on top of what we booked in ARR, which, implicit in that number, did not include ERTC.
Okay. All right, great. And then, on Marketplace, did it ramp as expected, and any more precise thoughts or bounds around what it might do for 2024? That's my first question, and the last would be gross margin, John. Just what, how should we think about gross margin for Q4?
Do you want to go first?
Yeah, yeah. I'll go first on the Marketplace. First of all, 401, we were looking at the big category of Marketplace. With the SECURE Act 2.0, we pulled it out of the Marketplace and really have it as a separate category with payroll. So that'll perhaps take from the Marketplace, but it's gonna be a huge initiative going forward. We announced Lendio in the Marketplace this past quarter, because small businesses do need lending options that aren't regional banks, so that'll be a good one. The Equifax relationship has gone very well into the fourth quarter, and momentum's building across the Marketplace. We'll provide a more fulsome update, because we got a lot of partners that we're working on right now and as we speak into the first quarter of the following year.
But suffice to say, we're starting to lap some tougher compares. By the same token, we're gonna grow the Marketplace, and pretty excited about it. And then, 401(k), we're gonna take as a full category, and we'll take that out of the Marketplace, just because we think the traction level is gonna be pretty high pretty quickly.
On margins, I would say that the way I think about it, would be to think about just kind of the cost of goods sold. I believe that fourth quarter cost of goods sold will be in line with the previous three quarters. So if you take a, a blend of it, I think we did, like, 87, 84, 88. You know, so it's gonna be in that range, right? Somewhere between 87 and 88. So I think that's a fair way to think about. And that, you know, the revenue will just generate the, the gross margin based on that cost of goods sold.
Okay, great. Thank you.
Thanks, John.
Our next question is from the line of Eric Martinuzzi with Lake Street. Please proceed with your questions.
Yeah, you gave us the nine months on the ERTC. I'm curious, can you give us the Q1 and Q2 revenue contribution?
Yeah. So, are you talking about this year?
Yeah.
The 23? Yeah, I'm going from memory. I can dig it out of my notes here, but it was roughly, I believe, $5 million in the first quarter and $7 million in the second quarter, and then about $5 million this quarter, so that's a total of 17. So testing my memory.
A lot of the one-time revenue or professional services revenue in Q1, Q2, you know, a vast majority of it was ERTC.
Okay. So was there any recurring revenue in Q1 and Q2? I know there was in Q4, but didn't you-
I think there might have been $200,000. There might have been $200,000 in Q1, but yeah, it was we had a contract that we changed early in Q1 of this year that was gonna look like a recurring contract, and then it morphed as we modified it.
Gotcha.
So the real, the big quarter that we had, that the ERTC was in the fourth quarter, recurring to the tune of about $2 million. As we changed that contract, there might have been a couple hundred thousand that bled into Q1, but the vast majority of ERTC is in the professional services line.
Okay. And, and John, you said $5 million for Q3, but I had $3.7 million from your prepared remarks. Is that? Did I have that?
That's the increase year-over-year, I believe. So I think we did 14 in Q3 of last year. So the 37 is just the increment. Five absolute.
Okay. And then, last question, the sales headcount, I know you're targeting 120 by year end. Where are we now?
About 110 or 112. Let's say we have commitments to 112, I think, as of today, so that's where we're at.
Got it. Thanks for taking my questions.
Thanks. Appreciate it.
The next questions are from the line of Vincent Colicchio with Barrington Research. Please proceed with your questions.
Yes, Pat, I'm curious, did direct sales productivity meet your expectations in the quarter?
I would say slightly behind, but all in all, it was a good quarter. Obviously, when the IRS paused the ERTC on September 14th, it caused a little bit of pivoting and just understanding and sales cycle disruption. By the same token, we were already well on our way to pivoting and working through the SECURE 2.0. So, you know, maybe we lost a couple weeks in that area, but all in all, we were very pleased with the quarter. We've been very pleased with the sales staff and the organization. We think we have the right leaders and the right people in place, and you know, I'm pretty excited about the pipeline going into Q4.
So, you know, maybe a blip that we had some change management, but all in all, I was very pleased.
Any changes in the competitive environment, particularly interested in pricing?
No, I would tell you, you know, I first of all, I think, we're focused on, you know, ARR and repetitive revenue. Getting a customer, you know, is tough. I mean, we have good companies and that we compete with, and we get after it, and I'm very pleased, you know, in how we position and how we get our clients. I think we're winning our share, which is important, and we're getting to clients that with value propositions that, you know, are probably more valuable than our competitors and broader in some respects, especially around compliance and legislation. So, I feel really good about where we are.
You know, in general, it's a tough sales environment and, you know, people, depending where, you know, if you're bullish or not or you're seeing a recession and all that kind of stuff. But, you know, we block out the noise. We have a value proposition that we feel is very, very robust, and we're getting our share of business and I get excited and energized talking to our salespeople 'cause they're successful, and they're gonna stay that way.
Thanks, Pat.
Thanks, Vincent.
Our next question is from the line of Greg Gibas with Northland Securities. Please proceed with your questions.
Hey, Pat and John, thanks for taking the questions. Wanted to follow up on assumptions with occurring versus other revenue in 2024 guidance, and, and maybe what could ERTC contribute next year if, you know, if not excluded? Like, how much did you take out from guidance reflecting that uncertainty?
I think, the majority of that, guidance for 2024 is recurring. We've not forecasted a nominal amount of non-recurring. You know, how much ERTC could it be? That's kind of speculative. You know, we were running at a pretty nice clip, as you could tell historically. I don't know if it was gonna keep at that clip, going into 2024. So I think if you were gonna ask me that question maybe two or three months ago, I probably would have said, maybe $10 million or so for the year. I don't know what that looks like now, just based on all the uncertainty. That again, that's why we didn't put it in the guidance. But to answer your first question, the current guide, the $125 million, the $129 million, assumes almost all that being recurring.
Greg, just if you look through even our past numbers of last ERTC, we're somewhere around $1.5 million professional services or so, if that. a nd that's a quarter. So let's say if you wanna include that or straight line it as a number, that's $4 million to $6 million maybe, of professional services. M entally, I was coming into this year over the summer saying I had to replace, 8 - 10 million of ERTC. You know, the program is gonna change a bit. I think it's gonna be more stringent, which is actually good, and we support that, 'cause I think there'll be a flight to quality around vendors, et cetera. But that's what I had thinking that we would replace.
I f that's mentally where our head's at, and then, you know, what is to come, we hopefully have taken a conservative stance, and as we get revenue, great, but by the same token, we gotta run our business in a way that we can optimize and get the best value proposition to our clients, and this is what we're gonna do.
Great, very helpful. I think it makes sense to exclude it. Just great to get a sense of that potential upside, or how you were thinking about it. I wanted to follow up, too. I t sounds like leads still remaining strong. Like, are you seeing any slowdown there? And maybe anything, if you could comment on retention, any trends you're seeing there as well.
W ell, we meet every morning, and we talk about retention, and our retention numbers have been pretty positive. R eally, since COVID, we probably had an improvement around 2% that was strictly related to COVID, and then probably a 2% improvement that wasn't related to COVID. So our retention numbers have been very positive. Our cross-sell components around HR compliance and tax and some of the other products and services that we're able to layer on have been very positive. So we feel like, you know, the things that we can control, we're doing a great job, and we'll continue to build on the momentum. As far as the economy, I think, you know, if you turn on the TV, sometimes there's doom and gloom and the recession this and recession that.
But when you look, talk to Main Street America, they still find they want access to capital, they wanna grow their businesses, they wanna provide a value proposition to get better employees and more employees, and there's still more jobs than people. And, you know, some of that, might change over time, but even if it does change, I think it'll bring more people to the workforce. With COVID, about 5 million Americans dropped out of the workforce. I don't think we're fully back there yet. And, if you think about where we are in a cycle as a country, where you have people retiring maybe faster than people coming into the workforce and very little immigration, there's gonna be pressure to bring people to the workforce.
If you do have a slight recession, if you will, it'll bring more people back to work, and I actually think that's good for small business America. So we're pretty bullish, pretty excited. I'll tell you we're gonna grow over ERTC here, and when you look at a repetitive revenue company that's at $100 million, that's talking about guiding to $125 million to $129 million next year and do that, and not include any ERTC revenue, you feel really good about your business. And we think we have a lot of momentum, and we think the value proposition that we have on behalf of our clients will stand the test of time.
So, thanks for the question and, but that's how we're thinking about it right now.
Thanks. That's helpful.
Thank you. At this time, we've reached the end of our question-and-answer session, and I'll hand the floor back to management for closing remarks.
Yeah, I was just thinking about it, 14 years I've been here. I started we had to do pay cuts, and we had less than 50 employees, and we were $10 million, losing $10 million and $0.10 a share. And you know, what I would say is, when I look forward to turning a page on the calendar year, I couldn't be more excited about what we're building and what we're doing. We're starting to get capacity and scale in this business. We have access to people that are phenomenal. We have access to clients that we couldn't get in our early days. We're growing as a business, and we're growing by leaps and bounds, and I'm very optimistic in the future.
T here might be some uncertainties here and there on the economy or ERTC or what have you, but, you know, the things that really matter at the end of the day is, you know, growing your business, helping your clients, helping your employees succeed, as they build families. And, you know, we think we have a lot of momentum. So, as investors, sometimes the scoreboard is the share price, and I get that, but I also believe that as we've done over time, is build value in the share price. And yes, when you look at the scoreboard, it can be frustrating at times, but the best days of Asure are the best days that are gonna happen here in 2024. So appreciate you listening in, and, look forward to seeing you next time. Thank you.
This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.