ATN International, Inc. (ATNI)
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Sidoti Small-Cap Virtual Conference

Mar 14, 2024

Brad Martin
CEO, ATN International

Our new CFO, Carlos, maybe a couple of comments?

Carlos Doglioli
CFO, ATN International

Sure, you know, Brad, great to be here. I joined, you know, for people that doesn't know, I joined in early January the company, very excited about the prospect of, you know, with joining. You know, I joined basically because, you know, with the retirement of Justin that was announced in November. My experience before, I spent close to 10 years with a tower company that had operations in America. And before that, I had extensive experience in the telecom industry as part of the CLEC and after you know with Fidelity Investments of the private equity group. So very excited to be here.

Brad Martin
CEO, ATN International

Great. Great. So thank you, everyone. And we're going to spend about 10 minutes taking you through an overview of ATN, and then we'll open up to Q&A. So thank you again for taking the time. So at a glance, ATN is a leading provider of critical infrastructure and communication services in rural and remote markets. We are divided almost equally between an international segment where we operate in Bermuda, Cayman, Guyana, and the US Virgin Islands, where we operate, really, you know, all those markets, you know, wireless, broadband, voice and video, so Quad-Play type services. In our domestic operations, again, another half of the revenue of our business, it's in the Western States, in Alaska, and there's a significant amount of business on the wholesale, fiber backhaul services, consumer enterprise broadband, and what we call carrier-managed services.

So these are things like tower services, tower rents, backhaul, to support big major mobile network operators like AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile. You can see some of the statistics at the top. I won't go through all of those. For the 2023 figures, we had a solid year in 2023, with $762 million of revenue, adjusted EBITDA at $189 million. A couple of important dynamics here, 32% insider ownership in the business, so very much aligned with long-term value creation for our shareholders and with a very long operating history in the markets that we operate, so 35 years of operating experience. At the core of ATN are three primary pillars of how we operate. We specifically target, you know, some key dynamics that create sustainable competitive advantage for our company. And primarily, they consist of these three primary areas, so targeting underbuilt market segments and underbuilt markets.

This focus that we have really is trying to manage unmet demand, and trying to meet the need of a major macroeconomic demand for broadband services. Something that is definitely a distinction to where we operate. We have been doing this for a long time, and we found that we can create really trusted relationships, long-term sustainable revenue cash flows, revenue flow, and sustainable cash flows. We target a deeply localized operational expertise. This really provides, again, localized market knowledge, knowing how to operate in these areas, and this is connecting with stakeholders, customers, governments, business communities. Tremendously important for long-term sustainability in these more remote markets, and we've got a very long, strong history of doing exactly that. We align with major growth trends.

This is something that we've talked about, and I'll speak to more on the next slide, our focus on expansion of infrastructure, and we call it Glass and Steel and First to Fiber. But these are significant global trends around the need for broadband services to everywhere, ubiquitous, whether you're at home and you're in your business. Rural markets need to operate and have the same demands you'd have in urban and suburban markets. So it's something that we always stay on top of, and it's important that we can deliver that value to our customers. So again, building those trusted relationships, creating win-win value propositions with localized operational knowledge, which leads to stable recurring revenues and durable cash flows in the long run.

We're in a unique period, at ATN, and, you know, a distinction as we're coming into 2024, we're coming out of a three-year, a pre-announced three-year investment phase. We can call Glass and Steel and First to Fiber, and I'll speak to a little more of what, you know, what the some of the nuance behind each of those. But Glass and Steel is really around digital infrastructure, digital assets, towers, fiber, making sure that we can create all of the infrastructure needed for long-term, digital connectivity needs in the markets that we serve, and capitalizing on available programs with governments, which is primarily a U.S. dynamic, and advanced services. So we can provide not only the infrastructure but services on top of those infrastructure, the infrastructure we invested in to, again, create and adapt and expand the value beyond just the hard assets.

First to Fiber is exactly what it sounds like, being able to be the first to the best broadband infrastructure that we can provide, which in many cases is exactly that, being the first to put fiber in the ground in some of these markets, do overbuilds of DSL networks, overbuilds of HFC networks, hybrid fiber coaxes, which we've done that, across the Caribbean, and we started to do that in the last couple of years, in Alaska as well with our first buildouts in Anchorage and Fairbanks. And really, First to Fiber in the more remote rural markets, if it's not direct fiber to the home, it's fiber-fed assets like advanced fixed wireless, potentially gigabit-style fixed wireless solutions that provide in some of these areas the right returns, the right reach for being able to provide these same services in the long run.

So we've been building this foundation, and we're coming into the last year of that, and we have put a significant amount of capital to work in the last few years. We're now moving to a period where we are ramping down a bit of our capital, and our projections for 2024 represent that. We're going to be able to really drive accelerated free cash flow generation across the business exiting this investment phase. This chart here, these charts show some of those dynamics. So you can see the capital spend history for the last three years, which is a dynamic of this investment phase I just described. Importantly, on the right-hand side of this chart, you see some of those infrastructure measures. Obviously, you invest the capital, you're going to see things like fiber miles, broadband homes passed, expand significantly.

But what importantly, we're seeing significant addition of high-speed subscriber growth. We're seeing additional growth in our international mobile subscribers. So all of those antecedents to revenue and free cash flow, we're seeing based upon the investments that we've made. So we are very pleased with the work that we've been able to accomplish in the last couple of years. And we expect to continue to see, you know, additional growth here, based on these investments that we've made. And I do want to distinguish a bit on our CapEx. We operate in three U.S. jurisdictions, Alaska, the Southwest, which is typically primarily in five states, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, and Nevada, and in the Virgin Islands. All of those U.S. territories and states participate in U.S. government subsidies for infrastructure grants.

We do have, and we've announced, in 2023, we announced $90 million of infrastructure grant wins for our U.S. operations. We've announced prior to that, in 2022, $155 million of infrastructure grant wins. So those grants are going to continue to augment our ability to expand our infrastructure without our organic capital. This is other sources of capital to continue to expand. And those, those numbers are outside of what you see here on these, on these charts on the right left-hand side of this page. So the combination of our own, organic capital, which for 2024, we've guided to a range of $110-$120, so you can see it coming down significantly from the $163. And we have these government programs, which, the programs I just spoke to will be building out in the course of 2024, 2025, and beyond.

So another important way to manage expansion of our infrastructure, leveraging government programs. And these are our key priorities for 2024. So we are, you know, we have completed the first phase of this investment strategy that we spoke of, Glass and Steel, First to Fiber. We've got a great expanding footprint. We're going to leverage that footprint and available grant funding to continue to augment our network expansion and really focus the business around business around ongoing margin improvements, which we've shown and continue to show some great progress around EBITDA expansion, adjsted EBITDA expansion, and to manage our balance sheet and to maximize cash flow. So, you know, we're coming on a period where we really think we're going to position ourselves to reap the long-term benefits of the investments that we've made, to deliver sustainable, you know, shareholder value in the long run.

And lastly, you know, to summarize, you know, we're really poised. You know, why would you invest? Why is ATN interesting? You know, we really believe this. You know, why are we poised as a good partner in these markets is we are here ready to see the benefit of these cash flows as we complete this three-year investment strategy. We've got a sustainable business model. We've got long, you know, reliable and lasting financial performance in the business. We're positioned to significantly increase our cash flows based on the work that we've done and the rampdown of capital. And we're very aligned with shareholder interests, with, with the programs you see here, significant stock buyback, program, you know, the we increased our dividend at the end of 2023, and, the significant inside ownership. We're all aligned here with returning great value to our shareholders.

So, look, I'm excited about the business. I've been here for six years now, taking over as CEO. Yeah, I was a pretty important architect of the work that's gone on the last six years at ATN. And very happy to take the reins. And I think, you know, Michael and Justin, the long-term duo at CEO and CFO in the business, have built a great platform, and we're ready to take that, you know, platform to move forward in the future. So, with that, Greg, we can open up for questions.

Greg Burns
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Sidoti & Company

All right, great. If anyone does have a question, just enter it through Zoom, and we'll pepper those in. But I'll kick it off here. You talked about, obviously, the Glass and Steel, First to Fiber strategy.

Could you just first level set us on the broader transformation of the domestic operations? I know you did a lot of restructuring with some of your major wireless customers to change the structure of those agreements. So can you just walk us through kind of what that business was and what it looks like now and how that might, you know, impact the domestic business going forward?

Brad Martin
CEO, ATN International

Yeah, so on that front, our Southwest business, Commnet, was a very large wholesale roaming partner for, and we still are, a pretty large wholesale roaming partner for the major mobile network operators. So we had about 215,000 sq mi of coverage over the rural Southwest. So, going back, I think ATN acquired Commnet in 2005. So this was, you know, a very good business for ATN in the long run.

The roaming industry, the roaming business has been changing dramatically. We are converting that legacy wholesale roaming to what we call carrier-managed services. Several years ago, we announced a very large contract with AT&T to provide effectively these carrier-managed services to about 300+ sites, about 350 sites, for their FirstNet rollout. Those carrier-managed services include tower leases, includes tower backhaul, includes tower maintenance. They're leveraging our maintenance crews to climb towers, do maintenance, tune antennas. It's a combination of those three core services that make up what we call these carrier-managed services. And these are long-term contracted revenue streams with AT&T for 10 years with multiple renewal periods. We announced our next major contract there, which was an important pivot, this past year in 2023 with Verizon.

Where we announced a contract on 300 sites to do a very similar type of a service under carrier-managed services, converting our legacy roaming to this service. And the primary distinction for everyone is in roaming, you don't have network core visibility. On the new service, the mobile operators get to have actual true packet-level core visibility. So they get real, it looks like they're a network completely. It's not a roaming network. So they get native network coverage. And we get the benefit of serving that with backhaul services, tower rents, and tower services, maintenance, and manual support.

Greg Burns
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Okay, great. And I guess from your perspective. Took a declining, like a kind of a secular declining revenue stream and gave you fixed visibility into the future to build off of. Okay.

Brad Martin
CEO, ATN International

That's right.

Greg Burns
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Okay.

And then in terms of the Glass and Steel investment strategy, can you just talk about your expectations? I think you've laid out some revenue and EBITDA growth targets. Can you just talk about, you know, what your expectations are for the return on those investments?

Brad Martin
CEO, ATN International

So generally, you know, and this is one dynamic I think is important, especially in an area where government grants are becoming pretty pervasive in rural America. And the BEAD Program, which is really just starting to roll out in some states, ATN has a very long history of receiving those government grants and really positioning them and using very strong disciplines on the business value of those grants. So it's aligned with our shareholders.

But we, you know, we are targeting on all of our programs, we have specific hurdle rates that we look for in any major infrastructure development program. But we always target, you know, rates that are, you know, in the high teens to 20s as a kind of minimum threshold. And that is, again, a discipline we apply at every level, whether it be organic programs, inorganic. And that's what can create disruptions in these markets when you have lots of funding coming from sources like the federal government. You get a lot of irrationality. We saw a bit of this in the RDOF auction. And we expect we'll see some of that in BEAD as well. Again, ATN has been a recipient for a long time with these grants.

We use a lot of discipline around how we select those grants. We've turned down many grants in the past where it didn't make economic sense for our business. So, but it is, you know, we are looking forward to our capital, our capital numbers coming to a little more normalized telecom rate of that 10%-15% window of revenues. And that is, that will be our organic revenue to help sustain and continue to grow our current businesses. It will augment that with our government program funding in our US jurisdictions. So Southwest, Alaska, and the Virgin Islands.

Greg Burns
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Okay. All right. Maybe we could talk a little bit more about those government funding vehicles like the ACP funding.

Could you just talk about the, I guess the amount of funding that's out there, the amount of funding that maybe is targeted towards your specific geographies or where you're operating? And then maybe also, could you just talk about the structure of those deals? Are they CapEx, CapEx offsets, OpEx supplements? Like how are those funding vehicles structured?

Brad Martin
CEO, ATN International

Yeah, so it's an important point, Greg. So, you know, there are a lot of different funding mechanisms. You mentioned ACP, which is a service subsidy. I mentioned grants that we won in 2023 and in 2022, $90 million in 2023 and $155 million in 2022. Those numbers actually reference build subsidies. So they're very distinct. The build subsidies actually are building infrastructure.

The service subsidies like ACP and CAF, and there's another program called A-CAM, those are subsidies for service. So there's a distinction between the two. We certainly participate in all. And it's something that we mentioned on our last earnings call. We renewed our EACAM. This is, again, a Connect America funding program in the New Mexico areas of New Mexico. We extended that funding program over 15 years at $118 million total program. So that's an example of one program that we have won as a 15-year window. And it's really continued funding at existing levels. So it's just an extension of funding. So there is a distinction in all of these required discipline around how you're evaluating those grants, how they fit into your strategic profile for your business.

Certainly, the BEAD funding that everyone has heard of, the $42 million BEAD program, which is going to serve fiber and high-speed broadband services, 100 megabit or better to rural America. That's a $42 billion funded program. The states that we operate in are the six states, primarily Alaska, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah. It's about $4.2 billion that have been allocated to those states, with a lion's share, I think, between Colorado and Alaska. Yeah, we are in position to compete for that. That's certainly. Certainly, there is a lot of dynamics. The states all have different rules and regulations they're putting out. Some, Louisiana and California, you may have read recently, are trying to put in price controls, service price controls with their BEAD funding. We have to evaluate each of these.

And if there comes with price controls, it has to pencil out to a good business model for us in the long run. Or it's a grant we may not choose to participate in. So there is a, you know, tremendous amount of opportunity. We will be able to compete for portions of that funding for BEAD. We've already won that $155 million in 2022, $90 million in 2023. And those are specifically infrastructure expansion grants.

Greg Burns
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Okay.

Brad Martin
CEO, ATN International

Did that answer your question, Greg?

Greg Burns
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Yeah, yeah. And then I guess from your perspective, it just you have to be able to justify the expense from an ongoing operational return on investment perspective. So do you need to in order to get there in a lot of these areas, does it need to be complementary to your existing operations, your existing footprint?

Do you need to be able to leverage it in more than, I guess, maybe one way, as like maybe a greenfield build? You know, how does that work?

Brad Martin
CEO, ATN International

Yeah, so it's an important question. And the key to being able to really extract value out of these assets in the long run is to have critical mass in certain areas. So certainly, the first view we look at for grants is, is it strategic in locality to our existing customer base, our existing asset base? That's typically step one. It doesn't mean we will not look at an area that's outside, certainly adjacencies and within our current operating footprint, which is a pretty big area in between Alaska and the five states in the lower 48.

But that is a critical item we look at and evaluate. And that is the way that you start to, again, expand services to existing customers, existing localities. You get that benefit of the local operating expertise that I mentioned as one of our core value pillars, is that you can expand that in all directions. And what's important for us, when you go into a rural market, you need to take advantage of the entire ecosystem of telecom services. So that's servicing local governments, servicing the consumer, servicing carriers, servicing the federal government. You need to be able to go after the entire ecosystem to maximize those returns. Okay. We've done a great job of doing that.

Greg Burns
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Sidoti & Company

All right, great. There's a question from the audience around leverage. You know, what's your view on your leverage levels?

I think you just reset your guidance for 2024. So can you just talk about, you know, given the amount of cash flow that I guess you're projecting to generate now coming out of this build cycle, what's your view on the balance sheet and leverage?

Brad Martin
CEO, ATN International

Sure. Carl, let Carlos speak to that.

Carlos Doglioli
CFO, ATN International

Yeah, I guess, you know, if you let me take this one, Brad. So, Greg, we provided guidance that we're going to end the year at around $225, 2.4x on leverage. This is due to some of the elements that we've been learning, you know, through the years of our strategic investment plan and, you know, the higher interest rates and the dynamics of some of the government programs and the reimbursement programs and impact on working capital.

Having said that, as we've said in previous cases, you know, on the earnings call, etc., we've been reiterating the fact that our focus is on improving margins, improving our cash flow to bring the leverage closer to 2x over time. But, you know, per the guidance, for this year, we expect to end at, you know, 2.2x-2.45x at the end of 2.4x at the end of the year.

Greg Burns
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Okay. Then I guess maybe another financial question in terms of your guidance for this year. I think the revenue guidance is flat to up, maybe modestly low single digits, which is below kind of you've targeted maybe more of a 4%-6% range. Can you just talk about, you know, maybe what's driving that tougher comparison in 2024 from a revenue perspective?

Carlos Doglioli
CFO, ATN International

Yeah, and I'll start and, you know, I'll let you know, Brad, chime in if he wants after I say a couple of words. But from our perspective, it's a tale of two markets. You know, on the international side of our business, we've been able to stay closer to those targets. I think in the case of the US, obviously, the termination of the ECF program has a significant impact on the business. When you take out the impact of that determination of that program, what we talked about in the earnings call is about, you know, around like $20 million starting Q2, then you take that out and then the segment gets closer to those targets that we have.

Greg Burns
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Okay. And that program was a COVID-related subsidy?

Carlos Doglioli
CFO, ATN International

That's exactly right. Yeah, that's exactly right.

Greg Burns
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Okay. All right. Okay.

We got a little bit of time left. Could we maybe just flip over to the international side of the business for a little bit? Can you just, I think most of those are more mature kind of developed markets. But maybe can you just talk about the, I guess, the dynamics in that business, in that market? You know, is it more of a margin opportunity story, a growth story, maybe both? You know, maybe just give us a little bit of color on the international side.

Brad Martin
CEO, ATN International

Sure. So our international markets, Greg, to your point, these are markets that are certainly a little more mature.

We do see some growth opportunities. We operate in Guyana, which is a country on the north shore of. It's a Caribbean market, but it's on the north shore of South America. It is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. We've been in Guyana for 30+ years. So we're one of the longest U.S. investors in that market. So that is an opportunity for growth. So there are some macroeconomic tailwinds there as well as in Cayman Islands. Cayman Islands is another market in the Caribbean that's actually growing. And we have other markets that are relatively stagnant from a growth perspective. So a little bit of growth from macro, but really significant opportunities to continue to focus on margin, consolidation of process, leveraging everything you hear about good companies doing every day.

We're well on the way on digital transformation, AI capabilities, robotic process automation. So we're well down the path to consolidate and optimize those businesses, consolidate process and optimize the businesses. So that is, you know, what primary driver for even expansion there will be around margin improvement in the companies and leveraging commonality wherever we can. Okay. But maybe the dynamic in those markets too is that we've invested a tremendous amount. We've got, you know, we've got gigabit-level services to anywhere from 70%-99% of every market, every household in those markets. So we've got a lot of great infrastructure. We've got 5G networks now in most of those markets up and running.

So, you know, we've made a lot of investment, and we can now leverage that investment to expand our free cash flows in those markets.

Greg Burns
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Sidoti & Company

I guess it's going to vary market to market. But what's the competitive landscape like internationally? Are you typically the number one or two operator? Is there opportunity to gain share from a customer perspective, subscriber perspective, or is it about driving more ARPU into your existing subscriber base? Like, how do you think about that?

Brad Martin
CEO, ATN International

Yeah, so it's certainly there are different segments, different service lines where we've got room to grow. Generally, across the Caribbean, there are two primary Pan-Caribbean competitors. One is a Liberty company called Liberty Latin America. And the other is Digicel, which has started as a mobile operator and has expanded their wireline operation.

So both are formidable competitors. We compete head-to-head in every market we operate. There's pretty much one and two larger players. And it's typically us and one of those two players. And then there are always some smaller independent competitors. But our goal is to be number one in each of these markets. And in many cases, we are that. And if we're not number one, we're a very close number two. And we've shown that that's a business model that can sustain and return great value to shareholders in the long run. And ATN has been doing that, you know, for the entire lifespan of the company, starting in the Virgin Islands, then Guyana. It's where we got started. So we know the markets well and have a great track record of delivering value in those markets.

Greg Burns
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Okay.

I guess with the idea of margin expansion internationally and I guess obviously looking for that domestically too, can you just talk about maybe the EBITDA margin target, you know, what the goal is for the business and, you know, what your path is to getting the re?

Brad Martin
CEO, ATN International

Yeah, so go ahead, Carlos. Are you taking that?

Carlos Doglioli
CFO, ATN International

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, I was going to say, I think, you know, you we had some targets. We've been pretty close to those targets over the last years. We've seen improvement of close to 100 basis points to our adjusted EBITDA in 2023. Our guidance for 2024 continued to be along that path. And, you know, we remain committed to continue to expand margins and get closer to some of the other industry benchmarks that we see.

Greg Burns
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Sidoti & Company

Okay.

All right. Well, it looks like we are at the end of our allotted time. So I just wanted to thank Carlos and Brad for presenting. Everyone else for listening in. If you didn't get your question answered, hopefully you have a one-on-one. You could get it done in person. But with that, we'll wrap it up. And thanks for being here this morning.

Brad Martin
CEO, ATN International

Thank you, everybody. Appreciate the time.

Carlos Doglioli
CFO, ATN International

Thank you so much .

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