Thank you. I'm Michael Lassner, the Hard Line, Broad Line, and Food Retail Analyst. We are very excited to have AutoZone with us. AutoZone is a powerhouse in the auto aftermarket. For those who are not familiar, to my far left or far right, sorry, is Tom Newbern, who's Executive Vice President of Store Operations, Commercial Loss Prevention, and ALLDATA . I don't know that there's anything else in the business. He covers a lot. To my immediate right is Brian Campbell, who really needs no introduction. He is the VP of Tax, Treasury, and Investor Relations. We're super excited to have you with us today. As a reminder, please feel free to shoot up questions. We will weave them into our conversation. The auto parts business, for what seems like a very stable sector, has been, over the last few years, very volatile.
Part of that seems to be that the business is a bit more weather sensitive. Do you think that's the case, Tom? Why has that been the case?
Actually, I don't think that is the case. I've been doing this for well over 30 years. The impact of the business by weather is no different today than it has been. Over the last couple of years, maybe only once in the last 10 or twice out of the last 20 years, we've actually been impacted by some very mild weather for multiple years in a row. I think that's kind of where we were in 2017. In general, the weather is going to be what it's going to be. Over the course of a year, it'll equal itself out. It can, on a quarter-to-quarter basis, definitely have an impact on our results.
One of the topics for this year is we've seen some bouts of cold, we've seen some precipitation. Do you think there's been enough cold weather to drive the industry for the rest of the year?
Yeah, without suggesting that I can tell what's going to happen for the balance of the year, we would say that we found the last couple of seasons to be seasonal.
Yeah.
Yeah, it's been a cold winter, but not extreme. When I say that, I'm looking across 50 states. The people in Minneapolis would disagree with that. It's been very extreme. In Boston, for example, it's been fairly mild. I would call it seasonal, and I think that I would say with regards to the industry and sales in the industry, it's not going to be a headwind, and if you were to get an extreme heat in the summer, could possibly be a tailwind. As an industry, I think that it bodes fairly well for us over the next 6-12 months.
This is also just a period where tax refunds can be influential. AutoZone's been talked about that in the past. If we see a normal cadence of tax refunds, the weather, do you expect this to be a pretty typical season? Given some of the headlines about delayed tax refunds, does that strike a tone of caution?
If you would've asked me that question 3 weeks ago, I probably would've had a little panic in my voice because the remittance season absolutely started off way behind last year. As we've moved through, it's kind of leveled out. It's still a little behind last year, but nothing like what we were looking for early in the remittance season. We expect it's going to be, over the course of 8 weeks, it should be exactly what we expect. Timing, week to week, can change, and we've seen that, but I wouldn't anticipate any major changes. The only thing that could influence that is, as it's a lower-end consumer that we count on the most, and if we get too late in the season and it's still fairly cold across the country, it could impact our industry, as that consumer will spend the money.
You're just hoping that they're spending it at AutoZone. If the weather's right, they will. That's primarily on the DIY side. On the Do It For Me side, you don't have that type of volatility.
We saw that last year where it was wet and cold late into the spring season, and the-
It ran late.
demand was delayed.
Right. Yeah.
I guess that the good news is it sets you up for an easier comparison when we get into March and April of this year.
That's a good way to think about it.
Yeah. Another hot topic in the industry has been about tariffs, and AutoZone's had a slightly different perspective on tariffs than some of the other players. The other players have said, "Look, we've been impacted by the tariffs. We passed it along. The industry has absorbed it. There really hasn't been a impact to unit demand." AutoZone's been more of the view, look, we've managed through tariffs. It really hasn't had much of an impact on pricing. Tom, do you have a view on why there's been contrasting perspectives within the industry?
Yeah. I think it's an interpretation issue. I don't think that there's really that much distance between what one of our larger competitors said and what we've said. One of the folks said that they thought there's about a 200 basis impact from inflation. We said it's 100. I think if you have to clarify, are you talking about a 200 basis points change in cost or a 200 basis points change in retail? Then you'd have to ask us the same question. I will say that a straight 10% change in tariffs will not impact everybody the same. We buy from different countries. Different countries are having different tariff issues now. Over time, I would also tell you that who cares whether it's 100 basis points or it's 200 basis points? The fact is, this industry has always been able to pass those costs along.
Even if there is a pullback, which has been a question from a number of you, it's less likely that you'll have to pull back from those price increases. The reason is, in this case, these tariffs are on steel. We're primarily talking about a hard part piece, which is turning less than one time a year, so the consumer doesn't have the transparency that they would have if it were a commodity.
Yeah. I think we heard that from one of your competitors today that the tariff piece, if it rolls back, while there might be some different changes within the industry, some players might look to roll back. By and large, these prices have gone through and they're based on many different factors, tariffs being one of those. Is that consistent with your-
Yeah, I think that's right. I think the disconnect is in the interpretation of the answers and how the questions are being asked. Historically, there's been no reason for there to be a disconnect between any of the top four.
Yeah. AutoZone's been a regular at this conference for a while, and we thank them for that.
You know what? We would appreciate a swag bag.
Yeah. We're working on that. We're working on that. It may say Four Seasons on it. It may come in the plastic variety, but that's fine. For as long as you guys have been here, we've talked about your commercial business, and some years you've seen more traction than others. It seems like the last few quarters, something has happened that's really injected a lot of life into your commercial business. Just for those who aren't aware, 80% of AutoZone's business is DIY, 20% is commercial, and your sales per commercial program is quite lower than your peers. This is critical to your story.
Can I tuck a question in here?
Can you give us a sense for what's catalyzed this faster-growing commercial business in the last year?
I think that the 13 that we produced last quarter has gotten everybody's attention, but I'm not, and nor does our leadership team, look at it on a quarter-by-quarter basis. I think if you look back certainly over the last four, but you could go back further than that, we've been very focused on a few cultural things with regards to commercial. We've been very focused on the level of engagement by our in-store AutoZoners, this is not a one or two-quarter change. We've been building the foundation for a long time, and we've really focused in on a few specifics over the last 24 months, I think we're starting to see the benefit from that. We're very excited about it because we don't think it's a one-quarter step change or a one-quarter phenomenon.
We think that we've built a foundation that we can continue to build on.
Give us a sense for, on a deeper level, have you changed the store manager compensation? Have you given them more training? Has the messaging from the home office to the field been any different?
Yes, on all of the above. No radical changes in compensation. If I can take a little time to explain.
Please.
Our store managers are responsible for the P&L inside the four walls. That includes the 80% of DIY business and the 20% of commercial business. Most of our stores have very tenured managers who have been focused on DIY for most of their career. It's not an easy change when you're trying to convince somebody to engage in 20% of their business at a rate that's higher than the 80% driving their P&L. We've spent a lot of time on training, as you mentioned. We've spent a lot of time on corporate communication. While we didn't change their comp structure, with regards to their variable comp, we weighted commercial at a much greater than 20% rate.
Yeah. How has that helped AutoZone overcome two obstacles that stood in the way of it becoming a bigger player in the commercial business, one of which was the perception that AutoZone is more of a retailer or a DIYer, and we know that perception matters in this sector. Two, the fact that so much of its assortment is built off of the Duralast brand, which may not have always resonated with that commercial customer, and in turn, you might have had to carry more products, one of which being the Duralast and the same product being a brand that relates to the commercial customer.
Well-
Are those fair obstacles?
I think they're fair. I don't necessarily think that they're accurate.
The fact is that we have predominantly been a DIY player. That's where we started, and it is the mothership of AutoZone. Without DIY, a lot of other things can't happen. Over time, one of the larger players and competitors, Advance, was absolutely a retail player. They made that transition via acquisition. We chose not to. Over time, we have overcome that. At the end of the day, if you provide a great customer experience and you execute on your plan
They're going to get past that.
I'm sorry.
No, go ahead.
With regards to Duralast and the role that Duralast plays, not only in commercial but in DIY, those are old tapes. It's primarily driven, quite frankly, we've always led with the Duralast brand, and quite frankly, our competitors have sold against that over the last 10, 15, 20 years, because it's been easy, because they happen to have brands in their back room, and we had the Duralast brand. The fact is now, if you ask, Duralast is 50% of our sales, or represents about 50%. If you ask our competitors what percentage of their sales are in a private label or a house brand, you're going to find that the growth rate in those brands for everyone has changed so dramatically, they're no longer able to sell against us with that.
We're overcoming that, and with regards to Duralast, what's our total revenue in Duralast right now, Brian?
It's somewhere between $4 billion and $5 billion.
Somewhere between four and five, call it four, possibly five. A $4 billion brand in the U.S. makes Duralast one of the largest brands out there.
Yeah.
Certainly one of the largest in the automotive market.
If you had to guess, do you think your Duralast brand has grown faster with DIY customers or faster with DIFM customers?
I think that it's the only brand that we offer, really. We have a couple of others, but I don't think there's a difference. We have built a very powerful brand, a lot of name recognition, and we're getting credit for quality. Our merchandising team's done a fantastic job and our marketing team building that brand.
Have customers become more brand agnostic over time, or it's just that the quality of Duralast has improved so much that it could compete against anyone in the industry?
I will go with the latter.
Yeah.
Certainly, the quality of the Duralast brand stands on its own. I also think that the market's becoming more agnostic because more and more of the product is coming from China and is in a private label brand.
Yeah. You said the recent performance in the commercial business hasn't been a surprise to you, but it may not also be, and I'm paraphrasing, may not also be linear. You don't expect it to go from 10 to 13 to 15. Is that the right?
Regardless of what I expected, I wouldn't answer that.
Okay. Yeah.
we are-
It's worth a shot, for sure.
I appreciate the try.
Yeah. Where you're seeing the growth in the commercial business, is it new accounts that you're calling on, existing accounts? How are you finding the success?
It's across the board. We measure what we call mature PINs, which are customers that have done business with us for over a year. That business is strong and growing. We have a very strong national account business, which is also growing. We're getting more share of wallet from existing PINs, and we're getting new customers as well. As I said, and I'll go back to your attempt to get me to commit to a sales number, we're very happy with the foundation that we've built, and we feel like upon that foundation, we can build success over time.
Yeah. Brian gives me the sales number offline, it's all good.
Perfect.
You now have 30 mega hubs in place. This industry's all about having the right inventory, right place, right time. It seems like your mega hub strategy has been critical to helping you to deliver some of this success. Can you talk about the near-term and longer-term impact of your in-market availability?
Yeah, I think what we said was 27. Is that right? With the possibility of going to 40 with regards to mega hubs. I would say that's our stated objective right now. I can't imagine that we won't get there, and if we see the type of success we've seen thus far, I would not be surprised if it goes beyond the 40 number. We'll deal with that when we get there, but it's been one of the most successful initiatives that we've executed at AutoZone in a long time.
Is it one of those that once you open a mega hub, the impact is almost immediate?
Absolutely. The minute that we start providing access to the satellite network, they can see that availability in the mega hub through their system in their store. Once we flip that switch and the trucks start moving, we see improvements there.
Yeah. Tom, you're a longtime AutoZoner. What are your observations around AutoZone's technology infrastructure, where it is today, where it needs to be, particularly to have some of these key unlocks, like more inventory closer to your customer?
Yeah, I think that like every other company out there's always an opportunity to improve on your IT systems and execution, that we're not exempt from that. We have, as we said several quarters ago, decided to invest some of our tax savings back into our IT infrastructure. We're in the process of doing that. That would certainly be weighted heavily towards commercial. That's not through the pipeline yet. We're not seeing the benefits of any of those investments just yet, but we certainly expect to. To the extent that we do see benefits, that's not to say that we won't continue to invest. Possibly at an accelerated rate if the return is adequate. We're very mindful, and I in particular remind people all the time, it's easy to spend a lot of money on IT and the omni-channel, and it's much more difficult to measure quantitative returns.
We'll see.
Have there been clear areas where the investments that you've made, that AutoZone's made, have produced returns? Can you give some specific examples?
We've not talked about any of that publicly, and if we happen to find something that knocks it out of the park, we certainly are not going to talk about that publicly.
Yeah. O'Reilly said the same thing earlier.
So-
It's never too early to start.
I'll leave that to someone else. Again, we've got a lot of energy, a lot of effort, and we are investing real dollars. Again, it has to drive a return for us.
One of the areas you are investing is in e-commerce, as you mentioned. Have you been surprised at the rate of e-commerce adoption in this category?
I would have to get you to define for everyone, e-commerce.
Yeah.
We're investing in the omni-channel, really not investing towards e-commerce. If a customer wants to do business with us that way, that's fantastic, and we want to be able to accommodate that. Our objective is to drive traffic into our brick-and-mortar stores. We have a wonderful platform with tremendous amount of information from parts availability to how-to video. Our objective is to have somebody walk in our door. The fact that 85% of the population is within five miles of one of our stores, that's what happens with us. E-commerce in and of itself is not a material part of our business, and hasn't been.
With that being said, AutoZone is making investments, whether it's next-day delivery through its partnership with some of the logistics providers out there, or in-store pickup. How do you see this omni-channel initiative playing out? If right now your e-commerce sales are low single digit even, very small percentage of your total sales base, where's that going to grow to over time?
Again, I don't think that we're really focused on e-commerce sales. I think we're focused on e-commerce influenced sales.
Yeah
which is an entirely different number, and quite frankly, a much more important number to us. That's where our investments are going is how do we use this e-commerce platform to influence sales? Primarily through our brick-and-mortar stores. Again, if a consumer wants to buy electronically, that's fantastic. We do have next-day availability. It's the only type of availability in this industry. We happen to partner with a very good neighbor of ours in Memphis, and through their logistical expertise and our product availability and distribution nodes, if you order something in Los Angeles, California by 10:00, it could be on your doorstep by 10:00 the next day. Again, that's a very compelling differentiation, but it's still not changing the world because you could also drive five minutes and have somebody talk to you about the product.
For the last several years, the threat of Amazon impacting the industry has been a topic of a lot of debate. Well, that conversation was a little hotter two years ago when industry trends were a little slower. That seems to have been tempered down more recently as growth has accelerated.
Who do you see as the customer who might be going to buy an auto part on Amazon, and how does that compare to the core DIY customer who's shopping at AutoZone?
Well, for our core DIY customer, our customers come to us out of economic necessity. They need that vehicle to be back on the road today.
Yeah.
Not only today, this morning. You're not going to be able to do that. Where we see is a much more discretionary spend is what you see through some of the larger e-commerce sites, I won't say Amazon specifically, from vehicle appearance, floor mats, specialty parts, like if you're building a specialty car or you're building a performance car. That's not really the heart and soul of our industry's business. It's there and it's real business, but it's really not dilutive to what we do day to day, either on our e-commerce site or in our stores.
One of the keys to AutoZone's success is its ability to attach, sell that whole transaction-
to the customer. What is it about your store operations that are able to lead it to that outcome?
We have great systems to start with, and our people have tools in our stores that can help them know exactly what's required to do the job right. It can help them. We encourage interaction between the customer and our AutoZoners, and our selling tools can help them engage the customer. Really, it's about hiring and retaining the right people. People that enjoy cars, people that enjoy being around people, and people that enjoy our culture. We spend a lot of time talking about that culture and making sure that they live it every day.
Because two-thirds, three-quarters of the volume you're doing online is picked up in store, have you had to evolve any of those practices to make sure that when that customer does come in store, you're able to have the complete basket, the complete transaction, like you might get if that's a store-originated transaction?
That's a real risk with buy online, pick up in store. If that customer made that purchase because they're in a hurry.
Yeah
you're much less likely to get that attachment to the basket. Our opportunity, unfortunately, is, again, these buy online, pick up in store transactions, while they're the biggest part of our e-commerce, and they're certainly the fastest-growing, they represent a few transactions a week in a store.
It's hard to create processes and practices around something you do twice a week and be very good at it. We still have an opportunity there to improve the customer experience with regards to that.
This is my last question on the e-commerce front.
No worries.
When you pulled back on website promotions a couple of quarters ago, it did cost you a little bit of comp growth.
What did you learn about that composition of that customer who does self-select to want to buy online?
Well, first of all, it's very difficult to get facts, and empirical facts around exactly what changed in that behavior. What did we say that was in basis points?
Thirty.
30. Again, it's a real number, you can't tie that from an IP address back to a sale that occurred or didn't occur in a store. What you end up looking at, in many people's opinion, is that promotional activity created a perception about price that ultimately led to somebody coming in a store. That 20 basis points or 30 basis points, we believe, because people just don't take advantage of it, we believe it could've created a price perception that drove them somewhere else as opposed to coming to AutoZone.
One of the topics we talked to O'Reilly a little bit about earlier was that the DIY segment of the market's pretty well consolidated. They were mentioning stats that they thought top players in the DIY side have about 70% of the share. On the commercial side, it's closer to 50%. A, do you think those are reasonable statistics, and do you agree with those? B, as the largest player in the DIY business, where is there room for you to continue to take market share?
I'll start with the first question, and I don't want to suggest I don't believe them, but I don't know where they got those from, and those are significantly different than the way we see share-
I didn't see it, yeah
on both DIY and commercial. I'll say I'm not sure that I agree.
Yeah.
Won't disagree without facts. There continues to be a tremendous amount of opportunity. One of the biggest opportunities we have is continue to educate and train our AutoZoners, because technology is changing, and customers are wanting our expertise, so we have to make sure that we stay on top of that and not only provide the best service but retain the best people, and I believe that continues to allow for opportunity on DIY. There continue to be greenfields across the country. We're opening about 150 stores a year, have been for as long as I can remember, and don't really see that changing, certainly not in the near future. A large part of those greenfields still remain on the coast-
in some large urban areas. We still find that, to our own surprise often, that our store density is incredible, and we have the ability to open stores two to three miles away in some of these larger urban areas and still have a lot of incremental sales growth. We're encouraged by the number of people that are coming into DIY, that remain in DIY. I personally think that unlike what a lot of people say, the change in technology and information available, I believe, makes DIY easier today than it ever has been. I have a living example of that. My 22-year-old son asked me to help him do something on his car. I told him no. He went-
Because you were coming here
he went to AutoZone, and he bought the part, and I went out in the garage and looked at him, and he had his iPad open, and he had taken care of it in about 10 minutes. I could never have done that 35 years ago. There's an argument to be made that DIY is more accessible today than it ever has been. I think information's a big part of that.
Based on your answer, it seems like you're saying, look, there's still more share for AutoZone to be gained on the DIY side within the traditional competitive set of players that you're against today.
Both traditional and non-traditional, I would say.
Non-traditional. Do you see the smaller players, who maybe only casually participate in DIY, some warehousers or independents.
Mom and pops.
Mom and pops, they're going to continue to consolidate and maybe the mass merchants or lesser-tier players as an opportunity to gain share?
Certainly. Regardless of whose numbers you believe with regards to the combined share, there's a lot left out there. There's still a lot of smaller independent players. There's a lot of players out in some rural markets where we're not participating. We believe that the opportunity continues to exist, and we plan to have industry growth of about 3% a year.
I think there is starting to be a conversation that's percolating about when do we reach that saturation point of the industry where AutoZone's got 6,000 stores, O'Reilly's got 6,000 stores, Advance has 6,000 stores, is that the point? What are you looking for from an internal metric perspective to say, "Hey, we're getting closer to saturation?
First of all, we're not worried about anybody else's 6,000 stores but our own. We continue to find opportunities, not only to expand in markets where we currently don't play, but in our existing markets. All I can tell you is that the number where we thought saturation was 20 years ago was wildly different 10 years ago, and where we thought it was 10 years ago, we believe there's more opportunity today. I just don't think that I can answer the question.
Yeah.
We look at it.
Yeah.
We just haven't found it yet.
Because at the same time, you are planting the seeds for future growth within the international markets.
Yep.
Mexico, Brazil. Can you give us a sense of what you've learned early in your life cycle in these markets? How is the profitability of these markets going to unfold over the next few years?
I would go back and say about the domestic market first, that one of the things that continues to provide tremendous opportunity for our organic growth is the fact that we have such a small share in commercial.
As we continue to grow that commercial base and that percentage, that mix of business changes, it will open up additional opportunities for us domestically as well. With regards to international, I'll go to Brazil first. We have 18 stores, I think, 20 maybe, that are open now. We're going to open another handful. It's a test. We hope to be wildly successful, but where we are right now is testing our model. The good news is that the consumer loves us.
Yeah.
We were able to successfully take the model that we have in the U.S. and transplant it into Brazil. The consumer loves it. There are a few other things to work out. If you've ever done business there, it's a tough environment. With regards to Mexico, we've been there for 20 years now, Brian? Maybe a little more. We are very happy with that business. There are complications with the exchange rate and a few other things, our model works. I could take you and drop you off in a store in Brazil or Mexico or Philadelphia.
Yeah.
Other than the language, you probably wouldn't notice a lot of difference.
Yeah. You see still a lot of room for growth within that?
That is absolutely what we're hoping.
Yeah. Back on the domestic market, you've made some investments in your SG&A. Part of that is to deal with some rising labor costs. Can you give us a sense for what you see from a labor perspective today? Is it more so because we're just in a tight labor market, or is there more competition amongst the players, particularly for really good talent?
I would back that up and I would say it a little differently. We made a decision to invest SG&A in our people, not as a result of the market itself. There's been some inflation in the wage market over the last couple of years, which has been a bit of a change, particularly from minimum wage requirements in some very large markets like California, New York, from some of the larger retailers like Walmart, Target, saying they're going to pay everybody X amount an hour. We've kind of gotten past that, and we're back on a normal glide path now.
Yeah.
The SG&A that we invested was targeted directly at some very important players in our stores. Primarily, our commercial sales managers. Secondly, our parts sales managers. Not only those very specific positions, but also those AutoZoners with the most experience in those positions. We're just trying to make sure that we are able to hire and retain the best help in that parts specialist position.
You've obviously earned a pretty healthy return on some of those investments in light of the commercial growth, in light of the success you're having. Do you see there is an opportunity to further push on that such that you consider this more of a longer-term strategy?
We'll see. We are a retailer and we do have turnover. We took quite a risk in making that investment. So far, I would say that we're very happy with the decision we made. If we see that the results follow, maybe we'll do something else and maybe we'll push it further. I can't answer that question right now.
Some others in retail are talking about using technology to try and replace some of the more basic tasks that a person in a store does as a way to offset some of that rising pressure on wages. Where do you see the opportunity within the AutoZone store to use technology to make the store more efficiently run?
First of all, we're a small-box retailer. On any given hour, we may have less than three people in the store.
Yeah.
It is going to be imperative that we figure out how to create efficiencies in the store. I think that one of the examples is through the omni-channel. If we can push more of the work and allow our customers to do more of the work from their laptop, their mobile device, then when they get to the store, if they're more educated or maybe they're buying it at home and buying online, picking up in store, that'll create some efficiencies. There will absolutely, for all small box retailers, if things continue to progress like they are, to find a way to create efficiencies and offset some of that labor cost.
Brian-
Artificial intelligence.
Are you scratching the surface of that right now?
We're looking at everything, yeah.
Brian's gotten off way too easy.
No, it's fine. I'm enjoying myself.
A little bit of a soft ball.
I understand that.
One of the more compelling elements of AutoZone's financial algorithm is that it maintains a consistent leverage ratio, which provides debt capacity. As long as you're growing your adjusted EBITDA, that provides more and more capacity. At the same time, your AP to inventory ratio is north of 100%. You just turn out free cash flow. In a rising interest rate environment, how do both of those elements of the model change?
Interest rates are a cost of input for everyone. For us, obviously, higher interest rates for our cost of borrowing, both short and long-term, will go up, and that will have an impact. We have to manage that accordingly. We've laddered out our debt. We have, it just escaped me, I believe nine publicly traded bonds. It's potentially 10. They all stagger. Usually one a year comes due. Those future rates, we have to model and we plan for slightly higher interest rates. Now, interest rates are bouncing all over the place. You guys see it every day. It's like one minute Treasuries are higher, one minute are lower. We have to assume and budget for a steady increase. It's just that'll be managed because the way we've laddered out the debt. With vendors, we have the same sort of exposure.
They will come to us with those questions as well and say, "Hey, our cost of input are higher. Can we pass that through?" We have to negotiate that. It's all sort of in the sauce. It's cost of doing business.
If interest rates were to rise, you've planned for that, or you can manage through that, and there really shouldn't be any major change to your algorithm.
Well, for doing business, we like rates lower. I think all of you would agree with me. We also understand and appreciate the fact that rates are rising, and we must plan for it. We have no choice. We have to manage that.
Well, please join me in thanking AutoZone for their time and insights today. It's been a really good conversation.
Thank you.