Good morning, everyone. I'm Robbie Marcus, the med tech analyst at JP Morgan. Really happy to kick off day two of the healthcare conference. We're starting off with a presentation by Becton Dickinson. I'd like to introduce Tom Polen, the CEO, do a quick presentation, then I'll join him with some others from the company for some Q&A. Tom?
Okay. Thank you, Robbie. Okay, good morning, everyone, and again, thank you, Robbie. We appreciate everyone's interest in BD. I'm pleased to update you today on the strong progress we have made advancing our BD 2025 strategic goals. This includes consistently exceeding our durable 5.5% revenue growth profile and driving three-year base organic revenue growth of nearly 7%, inclusive of our FY 2024 guidance. This has been achieved by systematically shifting our portfolio into higher growth spaces, both organically through CapEx and R&D, and inorganically through M&A and active portfolio management. I'm pleased to share that we're pacing ahead of our targeted 2025 WAMGR by at least a year, having increased our WAMGR by approximately 75 basis points from FY 2021 to nearly 5.25% today.
While we have many platforms with strong growth, you can see our strategy playing out in the performance of 6 key platforms that I'm going to highlight today. These platforms are all growing high single digit to double digit, and we expect these key platforms to continue to drive our growth as we progress through the balance of BD 2025 and beyond. Additionally, through our simplification programs, we plan to have delivered about 440 basis points of margin expansion through FY 2024. We are well positioned to achieve our FY 2025 margin target of 25% and have visibility to continued opportunity beyond fiscal 2025, with an emphasis on gross margin programs that I'll comment further on in just a bit.
Since FY 2021, our revenue growth and our margin progression has led to a 3-year average base reported EPS growth of 14%, which is above our double-digit average growth target. Our performance to date reflects our strategy in action, the strong market-leading portfolio we've built, alongside with our simplification programs, which will continue to support durable, strong growth and value creation for all of our stakeholders. Before we move on, I just want to remind you that I will be making some forward-looking statements today, and I encourage you to read the disclaimer in today's slides and disclosures of our SEC filings, which are available on our IR website. So for those maybe a bit new to BD and starting to learn about us, for over 125 years, BD's been advancing healthcare across the care continuum.
Our solutions are concentrated in medical discovery and the diagnosis and treatment of disease. In BD Life Sciences, we serve dynamic end markets like single-cell analysis that are at the forefront of advancing areas like cell therapy and immuno-oncology. And in diagnostics, we're the leader in sample collection, clinical microbiology, molecular diagnostics, and point of care. Our BD Medical segment is focused on making medication delivery safer, simpler, and smarter, from the hospital to the pharmacy and into the home. And in our Interventional segment, we work side by side with physicians and surgeons, advancing healthcare with solutions that can dramatically improve the lives of people living with chronic disease, conditions like peripheral vascular disease, cancer, and incontinence. We serve these end markets through a balanced portfolio of market-leading, durable core solutions and new transformative solutions that create a stable and resilient business that delivers durable, consistent growth.
Today, about 76% of our revenue is in our durable core, which consists of products that are the backbone to delivering much of healthcare. These are products like catheters, PICCs, infusion pumps, IV sets, Vacutainer tubes, and hernia mesh. We're the leader in nearly every major category we serve, touching more patients than any other med tech company in the world. In fact, about 90% of all U.S. hospital inpatients receive care using a BD device. Our leadership is enabled by world-class manufacturing technologies and processes, resilient local supply chains, and a consistent cadence of customer-focused innovation, all done at unmatched global scale. With an 85% recurring revenue base, this generates durable revenue growth and cash flows. Leveraging this foundation, we've been very thoughtfully rebalancing our R&D and M&A investments to build leadership in new transformative solutions in adjacent higher growth spaces.
We now generate nearly 25% of our revenue from these spaces, which is up from 20% just two years ago. This is an important part of our growth strategy, as these spaces generally are growing high single digits or 2x our durable core markets. We're focusing these investments against three irreversible forces that we see reshaping healthcare not just today, but continuing to do so over the next decade. First, we're integrating robotics, artificial intelligence, and other advanced technologies to improve the efficiency of fundamental healthcare processes. We're automating the pharmacy and the laboratory. We're improving nursing efficiency through an integrated end-to-end approach to medication management using advanced informatics, connectivity, and AI. Second, we're bringing to market new technologies that are enabling care to shift to new settings, including more directly empowering patients at home....
These include solutions such as our urinary incontinence platform, blood collection in new care settings, and enabling patients to self-administer biologics and other drugs at home. Third, we're expanding our role in addressing significant chronic diseases like peripheral vascular disease and improving outcomes in tissue reconstruction. As part of our Investor Day in 2021, we shared our BD 2025 strategic framework for sustained value creation through five key actions that you can expect from us. First and second, we're focused on delivering a consistent, strengthened 5.5% targeted revenue growth rate by building new leadership positions in high-growth markets through targeted organic and inorganic innovation. We complement that with active portfolio management, which I'll comment on in a bit. Third, we're executing a broad simplification strategy to drive a double-digit EPS CAGR and continued margin expansion.
Fourth, we're maintaining disciplined and balanced capital deployment to enable growth and strong free cash flow generation. All of this is enabled by making BD a great place to work and attracting the best talent to advance our strategy and deliver shareholder value. I'll spend a few moments going through each of these in more detail. I'm very proud of our team's execution since we laid out our BD 2025 strategy. First, aligned with our strategy, we've been very actively transforming our portfolio by refocusing our innovation pipeline and M&A strategy towards higher growth markets that I discussed. Over the last 2 years, we've launched 50 new key products, with 60% of our R&D dollars invested towards higher growth spaces.
In addition, our organic R&D progression, our CapEx investments to increase capacity in attractive areas like pharma systems, and our tuck-in M&A strategy have both been impactful in transforming our portfolio. We deployed over $2 billion towards six tuck-in acquisitions, all of which were allocated towards higher growth markets. We have also been active in managing our portfolio, focusing our resources in the highest growth markets where we intend to continue to build scale and leadership. This includes us completing the spin of Embecta into one of the world's largest pure-play diabetes companies and divesting our surgical instruments platform. Both portfolio actions were accretive to revenue growth and support portfolio simplification. Second, we progressed our Project Recode simplification initiative, which are targeted to deliver approximately $300 million in savings as we enter fiscal 2025.
This includes achieving our portfolio simplification goal laid out at Investor Day two years early, streamlining our SKU offering by 20% compared to 2019. We're seeing the benefits in our manufacturing plants and with customers, and we will continue to advance this initiative as we execute BD 2025. We've also advanced our network optimization efforts to generate savings beginning in fiscal 2024. We have multiple site consolidations, either completed or underway, to reduce our footprint by approximately 20%. These are designed to reduce our complexity and costs while ensuring we have the right products made in the right places to support future growth. And lastly, we initiated our operating model simplification efforts with early positive results from the launch of a global business service model with a third-party vendor to help optimize certain back-office processes.
We also enabled growth and simplification through our focus on improving free cash flow conversion, and we delivered a step-up in fiscal 2023, with free cash flow increasing by over $600 million. This included intentional choices around inventory management and continued discipline around CapEx investments through efficiencies gained that enable a focus on the most strategic programs that support growth. We're planning another step improvement in FY 2024 and expect free cash flow to increase double digits this year, driven by continued progress in these areas. We believe we remain well positioned to achieve our long-term cash conversion target of around 90%. Lastly, we delivered on our number one priority, obtaining FDA clearance for the updated Alaris system. We're excited to deliver the benefits of the updated Alaris system to our customers and to their patients.
Alaris brings to customers the power of one integrated infusion platform with a single user interface for all major types of infusions. It's the market's leading EMR and interoperability, and our HealthSight software is the market's only system that connects data from the pharmacy to the nursing station to the pump, enabling safer, simpler, and smarter end-to-end management processes for patients and for nurses. We're making strong progress bringing our fleet of Alaris pumps up to the newly cleared device. While we do not normally comment on product revenue, we are feeling increasingly confident in our progression. And at this point in time, we believe $200 million is the floor on revenue in fiscal 2024. That said, it is still early days, and our focus remains delivering for our customers and delivering outstanding service.
Our strategy has driven solid results, and we're on track to deliver on our BD 2025 financial commitments, which, as a reminder, exclude the impact of COVID-only testing. Inclusive of our fiscal 2024 guidance, we're positioned to deliver both strong top and bottom line performance above our targeted growth profile and achieving 80% of our targeted margin expansion by the end of FY 2024. While it's still early in our process and report our Q1 financial results in February, we remain on track to deliver our full-year FY 2024 guidance. Based on what we know today, specific to Q1, there are a couple of items to highlight. First, the quarter sales growth played out as expected, other than one dynamic with respect to the timing of the respiratory season. For the full year, we continue to expect a normal-sized flu season.
However, we do see a timing shift relative to our original expectations, which translates to the movement of approximately $30 million of flu testing revenue from fiscal Q1 to the remainder of the year. In addition, we now expect a modest, favorable shift in our tax phasing due to the accelerated timing of a discrete item that was planned for this year and does not change our full year anticipated ETR. Again, we remain focused on executing and remain on track to deliver against our full year plans. Through our focus on investments with the potential to move the needle in terms of growth, we're at least a year ahead of schedule on achieving our FY 2025 WAMGR target, having strengthened our WAMGR to nearly 5.25% today, further strengthening our durable 5.5% targeted growth profile.
As we move forward, you can expect us to continue executing our value creation framework. This includes investing over $1.1 billion in R&D to advance what I believe is the strongest pipeline in the company's history, with multiple high growth opportunities. With another 25 key product launches planned for fiscal 2024, we're well on track to achieve our target of over 100 new product launches by FY 2025, and that's a good indicator that we're also well on track to double the incremental revenue from new products by FY 2025, creating a new wave of margin accretive growth for BD. Our approach to accelerating our growth profile through purposeful, organic and inorganic investments is evidenced in the six highlighted growth platforms we've been investing behind, and that I'd like to highlight here. Let's start with BD's PureWick portfolio.
It's now the market's leading platform for non-invasive urine management. We see this as a billion-dollar opportunity in a market growing double digits. We began with PureWick for females in hospital settings and launched this into the home with PureWick DryDoc. Last year, we launched the male version for hospital settings, and this is on track to be one of the fastest-growing product launches in our history. Later this year, we plan to launch male PureWick into the home setting, and we have a series of additional line extensions in our pipeline to expand to new additional patient groups. Through the acquisitions of GSL and most recently, Parata Systems, we've built the world's leading pharmacy automation business. At nearly $700 million in revenue, BD Pharmacy Automation is one of the largest robotics and healthcare process automation businesses in medtech.
There's never been a greater need for improving pharmacy labor efficiency and for technologies that enable the trend towards mail-order pharmacies and solutions for patient compliance. In Pharm Systems, at the start of our BD 2025 journey, right in the middle of the pandemic, we made a bold decision to invest $1.2 billion in additional capacity for prefillable syringes. Today, we're seeing this capacity investment, along with several new innovations we've brought to market, paying off as we're ideally positioned to enable delivery of the large wave of biologics coming to market, including GLP-1s. Our investment in technology, such as our on-market Vystra pen and future Libertas wearable injector and Evolve wearable infuser, create new ways for patients to self-deliver injectable drugs for chronic disease at home.
In our BD COR and BD MAX molecular diagnostic platforms, we continue to leverage our growing install base through investments in menu expansion that include our new vaginal panel and our Onclarity HPV assay for ThinPrep on BD COR, and now greater than 20 assays on BD MAX. During the COVID pandemic, we also shared that we reinvested a portion of COVID testing profits to accelerate our R&D pipeline, and the number one space for those investments was our bioscience business, where we now see a super cycle of innovation. These include our new-to-world BD FACSDiscover S8 cell sorter with CellView image technology and Horizon spectral dyes and antibodies. These apply novel technologies like high-speed cell imaging and AI-led assay optimization to provide researchers new insights into the immune system and advance discoveries in areas such as cell therapy and immuno-oncology.
Just last month, for the first time ever, the first-ever 50-plex flow assay was run by using these new technologies, will be published shortly. We expect multiple additional FACSDiscover instruments and Horizon reagent launches. Lastly, in our peripheral vascular disease platform, we leveraged our strong commercial channels to expand our served markets by over $900 million through a series of acquired products, such as the Rotarex atherectomy system and Venclose RF ablation catheter for chronic venous insufficiency, while expanding proven products like Lutonix and Venovo in new geographies. These solutions help to address an area of high unmet need for the 10 million patients each year who are suffering from venous disease. To give you some perspective, back at Investor Day, these platforms represented about $3.5 billion in revenue.
Today, these six platforms represent approximately 25% or about $5 billion in revenue, and all have the potential to deliver high single- to double-digit growth, which combined, contributes approximately 200+ basis points to BD's overall growth profile. We expect to keep driving these areas as important growth catalysts. Combined with our durable platforms where we have strong leadership positions and a mid-single-digit growth profile, this is, gives us confidence in delivering our 5.5%+ targeted growth profile. Moving on to simplicity and our strategy to continue to drive EPS expansion or EPS growth. To date, SSG&A has been the primary driver of our margin progress as we leveraged our strong revenue growth profile, executed our Recode portfolio simplification program, simplified our operating model, and established our global shared services outsourcing partnership for optimizing back-office efficiency.
Our progress also reflects modest gross margin improvement after offsetting over $1 billion in outsized inflation. Looking ahead, we believe we are well positioned to achieve our fiscal 2025 margin target. In addition to continued benefits from strong revenue growth and portfolio simplification, our Project Recode manufacturing network simplification program will begin to deliver savings this year, and the relaunch of BD Alaris Infusion System is expected to drive positive leverage, particularly in FY 2025. We're also beginning to see benefits from deploying the BD Excellence system alongside BD 2025. Last year, thousands of BD associates participated in BD Excellence Kaizen events across the globe, and this is continuing to scale, with the number of events and participants tripling again in FY 2024.
Beyond fiscal 2025, we are confident in continued momentum with an emphasis on gross margin programs that we've begun to advance as we realize the full benefit of existing programs and continue momentum of BD Excellence. The foundations we're building now will be catalysts for the next phase of performance beyond BD 2025. In summary, while I'm pleased with the progress and results we've delivered to date, I'm even more excited about the future. You can expect to see continued execution of our BD 2025 and our framework to drive profitable growth and value creation. First and second, we're focused on delivering a consistent strengthened 5.5% growth profile through executing in our core business and building new leadership positions in targeted high-growth markets.
Third, we're executing a broad simplification strategy to drive double-digit EPS CAGR and continued adjusted operating margin expansion to 25% by FY 2025, with visibility to continued margin expansion beyond that period. Fourth, we're committed to disciplined and balanced capital deployment that enables growth and strong free cash flow generation, and all of this is enabled by our team's focus on execution and delivering sustained shareholder value. So thank you for your continued interest, and I look forward to providing our Q1 results on our February earnings call. Chris and I are now happy to take questions. Thank you.
Great! Well, Tom, Chris, appreciate it. You know, maybe, Tom, I'll start with you. Chris, feel free to jump in. Obviously, when I look at Becton's results the past few years after you issued the new long-range plan, we've seen pretty strong, consistent top-line growth, especially during a time when a lot of med tech peers were suffering during COVID. And you've been able to put together a bunch of consistent beat and raises on the top. If I look at this year, though, with fiscal 2024, and, you know, mid-single-digit organic sales growth, just right in the middle of the LRP. If I look down the P&L, I'm looking at 4%-6%, 4% and 6%-7%, with rounding, mid-single-digit reported EPS growth.
So maybe I could dig into this and address it in two parts, and let's start with that bottom line. What do you—how do you feel about Becton's ability to consistently deliver reported EPS growth in the double digits in line with the long-range plan, which does exclude COVID testing sales, but I feel like at this point, that's, it's a bit more de minimis?
Yeah, I think for 2024 going forward, as we said, we've just included COVID testing within our base business. It's not a call-out anymore.
Yeah.
It went from $500 million down to less than $100 million last year, so that was notable. Going forward, it was less than that, so going forward.
Mm.
Yeah, we feel really good about our ability to continue to drive strong EPS CAGR as we have been, and maybe I'll turn that to Chris, actually.
Yeah, sure. Yeah, thanks for the question. It's a fair question. Look, I do think it's important to note, I think, when you look at BD results over the past three years, obviously, in 2021, we had $2 billion of COVID-only testing that we had to jump over as we went into 2022 and 2023. The reality is, if you look back the past two years, and even if you include our current year guidance, we're well ahead of our Investor Day investments. And I think there, there's two things we've been very focused on. One, transforming our portfolio, right? We're doing that organically and inorganically. We talked about that in the presentation. You're seeing that show up in our strong growth rates. So our three-year growth rate, as Tom noted earlier, is almost 7%.
So well above the 5.5+ . That's an organic number. We're not dependent on M&A. What we are doing is driving an M&A strategy, where after anniversarying the assets that you add to your portfolio, you get the ongoing benefit because we're bringing in assets that are accretive to growth and actually accretive to margin. So growth is very much on track, intact. Margin also, when we actually launched our initial investor day, we talked about 400 basis points of margin improvement. We already achieved that in FY 2023. And then before FY 2023, we actually raised the bar to deliver over 500 basis points of margin improvement. With our 2024 guide, we'll be 80% on the way to that. So really strong progress on margins.
Matter of fact, as I look across kind of the landscape of healthcare in particular, I think there's only a few companies that have a combination of that degree of margin improvement coupled with getting back to pre-pandemic levels. So really strong performance, and by the way, that is inclusive of absorbing FX headwinds. And then when you get to earnings, I think this is where we have some of the most noise, and some of it is with the testing dynamic. If I just take the testing out, again, $2 billion of revenue that had a very high margin drop through, given the nature of testing, and really ask the question: What's your base doing with that growth, that kind of margin profile? And this is inclusive of any FX dynamics. We're 14% growth on our adjusted base earnings.
So again, we've done it the past 2 years. I know this year with the timing, mix, and dynamics of FX that played out really late in the year, FY 2024 looks a little bit differently. But when you think of things kind of on a, the long-term horizon and say, "Can BD do this?" The business is doing it. The business is healthy and strong. We've been advancing our strategy really well. As a matter of fact, I think we need. It's important to just kind of unpack the 2024 guide a little bit. Right, growth, to your point, of 5.75. If you take out the COVID-only testing dynamic, that's a quarter of a point. Really, it's 6%, so we're well above 5.5 plus. That includes absorbing some headwinds that we talked about as well in the market.
Margin, it's 50 basis points of improvement. That gets us to 80%, 80% of the way towards our 2025-goal . Again, that includes absorbing FX. So it's not like FX is causing us to go backwards from a margin standpoint. We'd be well over 100 basis points if you take out the FX impact. And then again, on, on earnings, on an FXN basis, I recognize the FX comment, we're 9.25. I think the important thing is we've made some very bold decisions throughout this journey, whether it be investing $1 billion in CapEx to keep driving our pharm systems business. But even in this most recent guide, there's 2 key things that we've done to drive cash, get our net leverage down, which will help drive, create future value. It's focused on inventory takedown.
That actually had a 50 basis point impact on our margin profile as well, that's absorbed in there, but it's generating excess cash. We expect to grow cash flow double digits again. That's following 40% growth in free cash flow in FY 2023. The other thing we did is, in the spirit of simplification and again, generating cash, creating accretive growth, accretive margin, is we divested our surgical business, our V. Mueller portfolio. And so again, that's about 75 basis points. The inventory alone has 200 basis points impact on EPS growth. So you know, we're strategically thinking about the business, and at the end of the day, cash is actually what creates value. And so while I know the earnings was a bit soft relative to that, we are generating really healthy double-digit cash flow.
When you look at it over a multi-year period, the business has definitely been well above double digits on an all-in basis, and I think that that's enough kind of historic proof point that the business keep performing at that growth level, continue to do that. Look, we're focused on executing the year. It's still early. I think importantly, that simplify slide that Tom presented, we have a strong portfolio of next level of opportunities that can kind of continue to create momentum within our PNL, that can fuel future growth, investment, capability building, and drive the margin improvement and get the double-digit EPS. So that's how we're thinking of it.
Great. Maybe same sort of question, but on the top line here. Guidance is for 5.25%-6.25% organic sales growth in fiscal 2024. I guess two parts here. One, how do you feel about the sustainability of that mid-single-digit growth going forward over the long range plan? And then, part two of it, you know, in fiscal 2024 specifically, how do you feel about the current economic environment, macro conditions around the world, and the health of the hospital systems?
Yeah.
Great, great question. We feel very good about durable 5.5% revenue growth, and as Chris mentioned, we've been doing that. If you include even our FY 2024 guide in, it's 7% CAGR is expected since we've launched BD 2025. You know, that's been driven by exactly what I described. We've been very active in portfolio management, moving out some of the lower growth areas to be focused on independently as standalone companies, or providing, for example, spinning out our selling off our surgical business to a group that's gonna focus on that. Both accretive moves to the company. At the same time, we've been highly focused in reallocating our R&D investments, as well as our CapEx investments into the highest growth opportunities.
And so you've seen, you know, those six platforms that I described, very active, components of our strategy come to life in those. So, you know, PureWick, bringing that into the home, bringing the male version, bringing that into the home, and then other applications in our pipeline. It's been a great area of focus, again, creating one of the fastest growing platforms in company history. We're really excited about that and its ability to drive growth. That's a tremendously unserved population space, both in the U.S. and globally. You know, our pharmacy, pharmaceutical systems business obviously has been doing extremely well. Normally, med tech is what's the negative of GLP-1s going to have in the med tech industry. For us, it's a little different. We're a beneficiary of that because most GLP-1s are in a prefilled syringe, of which-...
We're by far the market leader with 5-6x the capacity of the number two player, right? And so if you're launching the biggest drugs in the world's history, you know, we are the largest capacity provider and the best, most advanced technology in that space. You know, our bioscience business, you're seeing it continue to deliver very strong growth, catalyzed by a whole new wave of innovation. It's a whole new category of flow cytometers in FACSDiscover, and we're seeing those do extremely well in the marketplace. And as more and more publications are coming out, like the one I mentioned, the first ever 50-plex assay in the history of flow being published because of this new technology, it's creating more and more interest in scientists to get a hold of this technology because it's unlocking new discoveries.
But we're seeing the same thing, I won't go through other areas, but, you know, our pharmaceutical automation business, labor shortages are going to persist, right? To your point, customers have financial pressures, and labor is a key component of that. And so robotics and automation that are helping them solve that are important. You know, now with a $700 million global pharmacy automation and robotics business, we're extremely well positioned to serve that space. That's been growing double digits. We expect that to continue to grow double digits. And there's other categories that I haven't mentioned, but I think key message is, we've been very purposely building large-scale growth platforms, and I walked through 6 of those, which are really starting to fuel the growth of the company, right?
Those six platforms by themselves are 200 basis points of company growth that goes on top of our durable core base performance. And we're gonna continue to double down in those spaces, potentially some near adjacencies, but we see lots of growth opportunities ahead. Continue to expect us to pull our tuck-in M&A lever, as well as very purposeful CapEx investments and prudent R&D investments as we've been doing to fuel that growth and to do so profitably.
Great. Chris, since the November earnings call, currency, which you guided 75 basis point headwind on the top line, 375 basis points headwind on the bottom line-
Yep.
You're exposed globally to a lot of currencies. They've been shifting around-
Yeah
... pretty meaningfully in some areas. You know, any update on the mark to market of, of where currency stands for the year?
Yeah, it's, it's a little premature, obviously, right? Because a good portion of our, our currency is more still a forward-looking view and, and, you know, I wanna be thoughtful about continuing to watch it before we give a formal guide. We're in our quiet period. Look, the good news is, I certainly don't see downside with where things move, but I will say that there's, there's been puts and takes, like, so they've been on kind of ebb and flow throughout, and I don't see anything material, but I don't see any downward pressure. Obviously, that's as of this moment in time, but we'll, we'll share more of an update on the quarter call.
A couple interesting incremental updates in the formal presentation. Maybe we could start with first quarter. It sounds like you're reiterating your view on the year, first quarter, which in the guidance you already gave, is the low water mark for the year, both on the top and the margins. And it sounds like flu season, $30 million, is moving out to the rest of the year. So maybe you could just walk through some of the dynamics and then also tax, maybe coming in a little better. So maybe walk through some of the dynamics. Does this lead to maybe something below guidance in first quarter or more in line? And I know just how we think about that flu season revenue and why the shift?
Yeah. I wanna be careful again. We're in a quiet period. I don't wanna share too much. The one thing that we said, just to reiterate, we remain confident in fiscal year 2024. There was a couple of dynamics that we wanted to call. Flu season is always, like, high interest, and if you look at the time that we guided when the flu season started, it was really tracking more similar to last year, which had this, like, quick peak, fell off a bit. We hedged that a bit, somewhere between that and kind of what I would call a normal timeline. As you look at the CDC data, et cetera, it's clearly playing out like more like a normal respiratory season, which we talked about being approximately a $30 million shift. It's more for, you know, awareness.
I wouldn't view that as material. The good news is actually there, there's confidence in how the season is playing out. Sometimes those seasons, right, can have downward pressure. You're seeing a normal, strong, healthy season. So I would say nothing substantive there, maybe just a modest shift in some revenue timing from Q1 throughout the year. There's puts and takes across the P&L. We're still in our closing process. Honestly, the only thing that I am aware of that I wanted to signal was we had a 6% tax rate last year, right? And so we signaled that if you just kind of do normal equal phasing, that creates kind of a quarterly headwind dynamic, as you guys were setting up your models for the year.
The good news is, every year you've got various discrete items that are planned. It's just a question of timing, of getting those substantively completed, with regulatory authorities, et cetera. We see that moderating a bit, which could be basically maybe, at least those two could be kind of an offsetting dynamic. But the good news is, as Tom said in his prepared remarks, the quarter's tracking very much in line with expectations, so...
Great. One of the other positive updates in the presentation was Alaris went from a target of $200 million in fiscal 2024 to now a floor. So maybe spend a minute on the remediation efforts, how that's going, how much you've done, how much you have left to do, and just remind everyone sort of what you were doing in Alaris pre recall.
Sure.
... So just as a reminder, we were at about $400 million run rate on Alaris, and, you know, having gotten that cleared in Q4 of last year. It takes time to be able now that you can begin talking about a product, capital equipment sales are typically 6-12 months, and so, right, it takes time for those to ramp up, which is what we've been communicating. And we see really 2024 as that ramp-up year, as we get to more of a full-year run rate back at historical levels in 2025. And so, again, just being back into the market, we put out our target of in our guidance, said we expect about $200 million in revenue. The discussions with customers and our remediation have been going very well.
We've been very focused on serving those customers, remediating our customers. We're seeing customers, you know, drive standardization to the Alaris platform across mixed houses. All of that gives us confidence that we see the $200 million number as a floor as we look forward to the balance of FY 2024. We'll continue to give updates on Alaris, but you know, again, it's still early in the year, early in the process of continuing to launch, relaunch Alaris and service our customers, but we're making good momentum.
You're the market share leader in the pump market, and the recall impacted roughly 3, 3-plus years.
Yeah.
What happened during that timeframe, and how do you feel about your share today versus pre-recall, and where can this approval now take you moving forward?
Yeah. You know, we're obviously very focused on servicing and remediating our current customer base. You know, prior to the ship hold, of course, we've been taking share every year since BD and CareFusion had come together. As I described, it, the product is still the market leader by far in the space. It is by far the leader in interoperability and connectivity. It's the only platform with one integrated interface for all types of infusion. It is the only system that allows someone to actually look at what's happening from their pharmacy to the when drugs are deployed to the floor, to how nurses are administering it to patients. And that's something we see customers valuing. And so again, as I mentioned, I think it's actually quite impressive.
I'm not even aware of many analogies where, to your point, a product was on hold for several years, and there's very, very little change in category share because of, right, how that product is embedded and beloved by our customers, and particularly nurses. And so again, we're seeing very positive feedback as we're back in the marketplace, and we'll continue to comment as we go forward, as we focus on remediating our current customers.
Maybe a last question here before we run out of time. Becton's done a number of small tuck-in deals over the past few years, materially higher cadence than the previous few years. How do you view your strategy around M&A, and, and what's... You know, how do you use it as a tool at Becton Dickinson? What's your end result you're really looking for with M&A?
Sure. You know, so, I think it was very clear through the discussion of how we've built those six growth platforms, many of which tuck-in M&A has been a big part of that. And we've been highly disciplined when it comes to M&A, so you know, we look for accretive growth, accretive margins, and you haven't seen us announce dilution for many of those acquisitions, right? We've been very prudent and diligent. We walk away from certainly as many or more acquisitions than we complete, as part of just being disciplined in that process, including in the middle of, you know, bids. Well, if it doesn't make sense from an investor perspective, right, we don't do that. But you've seen us, first is, how we're reshaping from a growth profile perspective, and I'd say also a margin profile perspective.
That's been the number one catalyst in spaces that we know really well. You haven't seen us venture into entirely new spaces. Don't expect us to go into cardiac or ortho. We've got a lot of very attractive spaces that we're in today, that we continue to leverage assets, salesforce channels, manufacturing capabilities that we know well, and that's when you really get value creation happening, right? When we already bring something to the table that we can leverage, that is very unique versus competition. Because of whether or it's not, it's our scale of our commercial channel, let's say like pharmacy automation, a space we already knew very, very well, or what we did with our serial acquisitions in the vascular space, or in the surgical space with our resorbable mesh, which is doing outstanding.
Those are the types of deals that you're seeing, and you'll continue to see those again in high-growth, attractive markets.
Great. Unfortunately, we're out of time, but thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you, everybody, for listening.