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2023 Barclays Eat, Sleep, Play Conference

Nov 29, 2023

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Grants Pass, Oregon , we have Christine Barone, who's the president, and Charley Jemley, the Chief Financial Officer. In the front row or second row, I can say that we have Joth Ricci, who's the current Chief Executive Officer. Congratulations are in order. For those not aware, Joth is passing the Chief Executive Officer baton to Christine. So Christine is up here, along with Charley, to address all of our questions. By way of background, for those not familiar, Dutch Bros is a drive-through beverage chain. They've now got 800 restaurants in the U.S., with future growth to be led by company-operated development. And with long-term guidance for mid-teens annual unit growth, management is confident in their long-term guidance for 4,000 U.S. units, and we know a number of beverage concepts that have way more than that, so it seems like there's potential opportunity there.

We wanted to thank Dutch Bros for joining us. I have a slew of questions, but I will stop toward the end and see if there's any questions from the audience. But with that said, we wanted to especially thank Dutch Bros, Joth, Christine, and Charley, for joining us. Thank you.

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

Great.

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Thank you.

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

Thank you.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Happy holidays.

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

Yeah.

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Thank you.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

So, appreciate you joining us. I know you've had a busy day of meetings thus far, so some of these questions you might have heard before. But with 2024 just a month away, and it seems like lots of changes afoot and a lot of new initiatives in place, I'm just wondering if you could think about, what are you most excited about for 2024 in terms of improvements to your business, whether it's sales or margins? Maybe on the flip side, what are you most concerned about, if there is something to highlight?

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Great. So as we look forward to 2024, I think we're really excited about the foundation that we have. So, as I come in, we have an incredible brand, really serviced by people systems and a passionate group of Broistas at our shop that really drive our growth. As we look forward, I think, we're making a number of investments in the marketing area, and as we continue to scale and grow, excited about our rewards program, which is now almost 65% of our transactions and everything that we have to grow through that rewards program. Excited about the real estate growth ahead, and some of the subtle tweaks that we've made to the real estate strategy.

And really just, I think we're continuing to lay the foundation for that future growth and think we have a lot ahead of us. You know, as far as, you know, what are we concerned about for 2024, I think, you know, just like everyone else, we're, you know, continuing to look at what's happening with the economy. I think we have had the same prediction that just gets forwarded by a month, each month. And so, you know, just setting ourselves up for whatever might come next year and being super flexible and understanding all the levers we have to pull in our business, if the economy or the environment around us does change in any way.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Understood. And, I mean, having been public now for two-plus years, and I guess this is for Charley as well as Christine, but, in your meetings over the past couple of years, what do you think is the biggest misunderstanding for the, for the Dutch Bros story? Because I'm sure there's a lot of people that aren't necessarily even familiar with the brand, being a more regional brand at this point, and obviously, in very high growth modes. But maybe what questions do you get that surprise you most, or what do you think is the most misunderstood?

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

You know, I think we get a lot of questions around, you know, why company-owned growth versus franchise growth and why are we pushing ahead with that model so much. I think, you know, when you look at our unit economics and how strong they are, it really makes a lot of sense to continue that growth with the company-owned growth. We also, I think, have such a strong brand that we've invested in, that actually, our beginnings and our franchise network are truly unique, I think, compared to other franchise networks, where everyone started as a Broista and really loves the brand. And so, you know, with that, I think that, you know, we're excited about the path ahead.

We're excited about the fact that we can really plot our own future and design the shops in the way that we want to design them, with all the company and growth we have ahead of us.

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

Yeah. I'd echo the ownership piece. I think a lot of these things early on are now well explained and less of an issue. Why are you doing a company-owned development? You know, we are a beverage company, not a restaurant with food, so how is that different? How does that model work different? The pace at which we're growing is really fast and a little. And a lot of people haven't seen that speed for a while, so they're not as used to the algorithm that happens when you're growing that fast and helping people through the patience of that. That the business, when it grew 50% last year, and it's gonna grow 30% this year, it's a little more unpredictable than something growing 10%. So just getting people to be patient with that.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Well, my guess is, not a guess, but you'll find it clearly goes in waves in terms of investor sentiment, one way or the other.

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

Yeah.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

So we cover, you know, a dozen 100% franchise companies and a lot of them that are growing fast and doing quite well. The question is: Why aren't you taking all these returns for yourself rather than letting franchisees have it? Our company-operated businesses are quite the opposite. You guys sit in a unique position that you're not a traditional fast food restaurant, you're not a traditional casual diner, so you're really treading your own path. You gotta stick with what works for you. You know, a question that we hear every day, all day, and Christine, you mentioned it perfectly, which is each month, people are anticipating a potential consumer slowdown.

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yeah

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

W ith all the headwinds we see. On January first of this year, I would've said, "This is not gonna be a pretty year. You better run and hide in something very stable and defensive." Every month, it ends up surprising us. We did see an industry slowdown, what we thought was one in August and September, a little bit. And there were a lot of investors that thought the headwinds were finally catching up to the consumer. Other companies came out and said, "You know what? It might just be a return to some seasonality that for the past couple of years we just didn't see, but historically existed, so maybe that was the explanation." Industry data at least did reaccelerate in October.

Still waiting for some of the November data, and it gets noisier around Thanksgiving and whatnot. But if you're just looking at your underlying business without all the macro headwinds, I mean, how would you describe the health of the consumer as we've moved through this year?

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yeah, absolutely, and I think we've shared our business up through the end of Q3. And, you know, as we look at kind of how we've gone through the year, we feel really great about, you know, the couple of quarters that we've had this year. We feel good about the traffic growth and, and where we've taken the business. I think that as you look at some of the focuses that we've had on the customer and, some promotions that we've done, we think we've done things like we call Fill-A-Tray, where you get four drinks for a certain price.

We love that because as we're growing a new brand, we have so many new states, new customers, and what that allows us to do is it allows us to have someone who really loves the brand, introduce that brand to their friends. And so that's just a super important part of what we do. You know, but overall, I think that as we grow, and as you mentioned, we've had a lot of bumpiness in general over the last couple of years. When you add to that our very high growth rate, and a lot of changes to our comp base, you know, I think that, again, just really proud of where we are, and I think, like others, feel like we could be returning to kind of what a normality could be at this point.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

If you were to see a slowdown in the consumer, which people talk about as the number one concern on their mind, what would you be doing differently if all of a sudden somebody was able to tell you that in the next three months, really gonna slow? Or would you be running the business, believing that the long term is what you're focused on and you're not going to make adjustments for the short term?

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yeah, I think, you know, a couple of things. I think, one, we're at the early stages still, even though we've been around for 30 years of building a much larger business. And so I think the most important thing during anything is to know what your strengths are, and so our strengths being our people differentiation. I think that across the country, the number one thing our customers say back to us is, "What an amazing service I've had at True Food!" I mean , not True Food, sorry, at Dutch Bros. And so I think that staying focused on that. I think we have an incredible brand that we're still building. We're really not a discount-oriented brand, but what we do do is do things like I shared, where we can do trial driving. we also.

I think it's very important that the rewards program is continuing to grow. One of the things I'm most excited about in coming into the new role is the underlying strength that we already have in the rewards program, and the fact that we're at the very early innings in what we can do with that program. So we made some changes in March to take some of the base discount down so that we could add to it with traffic-driving initiatives. And, you know, as we go forward into next year and, you know, something unexpected happens, I think that that actually creates a lot of runway for us, to, you know, help to adapt to different behaviour changes.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Yeah. I think what a lot of people are grappling with is, because you are in such high growth mode, and a lot of investors in the Northeast probably would say they've never been to one necessarily or haven't visited it frequently, it is so new to so many people. I'm just wondering, as you've expanded your geographies, you know, entering new markets, I mean, how has the brand travelled? How has been the consumer reception as the markets where you'd say, "You know what? That didn't play out the way we thought," maybe better, maybe worse? But how do you think about that? Because that's what people need to get comfortable with, to think over the next five or 10 years about how many new markets you're going to be going into.

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yeah. Well, I think, I think for us as a leadership team, one of the things we get most excited about is when you go into a new market, and we're at shop 800, and we still have these super long lines, like sometimes miles long, as we open a new shop. And that type of brand receptivity, at a concept, even at our size, I think is just super rare to have that. And I think that's just taken years and years to build. I think the popularity of, of, and uniqueness of our drinks, of our offering, having a really strong, base, not only in coffee beverages but also in energy beverages, is super important to our growth.

We also have monthly stickers that we share with our guests, and there's a lot of folks who collect those and have collections of the stickers at home. So, you know, I think that this is just a brand that's been built over a long time. And as we go into new markets, I think the thing that maybe has changed the most is just that when you go into a new market now, people already know who we are, and they're waiting for us to come, and they're gonna sit there in line for those first couple of days so they can experience us in their hometown.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

You know, being a part of the IPO a couple of years ago, I just remember visiting some stores and just the job you guys do before you even open up that first store and the parties that are going on in-

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yeah

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

... anticipation is, the drum roll of anticipation for the store to finally open. But the fact that over the past couple of years, at least through COVID, or on the heels of COVID, it seems like you're well-positioned selling beverages. That's a high-margin business. Beverage consumption is on the rise. Drive-through is or drive-in is a very attractive attribute for business. Do you find that there's a ramp-up in the competitive nature as you go to different markets? So there are more regional players that you see in some markets that pose more challenges, or do you feel like you're unique enough that there is a Dutch Bros there when you get there?

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yeah, I think as we enter new markets, I mean, there, there's definitely other beverage players who are there. I think just given the size and scale of a Starbucks or a Dunkin', that they're the folks that we most often see, not only on the West Coast, where we are today, but also as we move towards the East Coast. And, you know, I know that, given the strength of what we've done, and, you know, I think the popularity that we have with our customers, that there are a number of concepts that, you know, have more of a drive-through model that looks like us. I think we do encounter them in some markets, but again, I think we have a 30 year history behind us.

I think we have really differentiated ourselves from a service perspective, that every time we open a new market, we open it with an experienced operator. We have 325 operators in our pipeline, with an average of seven years of tenure with Dutch Bros. And so that passion and enthusiasm for the brand just really shows through, I think, as we go and open new markets, and it's very hard to replicate that.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

And I think you mentioned, just thinking back a few years, I remember there were punch cards as kind of a loyalty program, which if you got the right puncher, you could really advance yourself on your way to a free beverage. So, moving over to the Dutch Rewards program, it seems like it's three years old, and I think you mentioned 65% penetration, which I can only imagine the changes that that puts on your system when all of a sudden you have that level of data. So how do you feel about that program today, and what do you think are the opportunities to capitalize on what seems like a very rapidly growing kind of ecosystem?

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yeah, Jeff, I think it's, for me, one of the things I'm really most excited about in the brand and the opportunity that we have in front of us, that because we have so much data on our customers and also making that change we made earlier in the year to the rewards program, it just gives us a runway to one, introduce people to new beverages that maybe they would love but haven't tried yet, and then also can drive frequency, can drive activity at different day parts if they're not coming at those times. And so there's all different types of things that we can do with the rewards program. We're really in the process right now of moving from kind of mass rewards to many people, to personalizing those rewards over time.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

What's been—I mean, I guess, as a person with the app and whatnot, of a lot of different restaurants-

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yeah

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

... it seems like everyone's kind of figuring this out and sending you more personalized ads. What have you had the greatest success with, or is it still, I mean, obviously it's ever-changing, but what have you found to be the most successful in terms of incentivizing behavior?

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Well, I think it's, I think that it's, there's a bunch of things. So it's not only that we have rewards on the app, you can also redeem things to get new stickers, and so that's really, I think, unique to us and popular, that you can get a digital sticker. You can kinda change your background and change your stickers. You can personalize how your app shows up. So not only can you personalize your drinks, you can also personalize your app. And, you know, I, I think as far as success is, again, we're at the very early part of the journey, and so, seeing the response rate that we have, I think is incredible.

The other thing I think to keep in perspective is, with our rapid rate of growth, the fact that we have, you know, almost 65% of our transactions going through a rewards program, and that that rate is staying relatively steady between that 60% and 65% as we grow. We're adding new stores, so to keep that percent up, we're really adding a lot of new people to our rewards program each quarter.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Yep. Brenton, what's the number in terms of members in that program currently, the number you share?

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

Yeah, we haven't shared the number-

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yeah.

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

But-

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Okay, but it's 65% of the transactions.

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

65% of our traffic.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

X million number of people.

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yeah.

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

Yeah.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

And the ability to get that to 100%, I mean, is there a reason why, or do you see that now slowing down?

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

I don't know if we'll ever get to 100, but, you know, I think the next waypoint might be 75%. Probably a 75% level might be where you'd top out.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Yeah.

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

You just kind of can't physically get everybody in.

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yeah, one thing we do see is, we do see some differentiation in the penetration of the rewards program between markets we've been in for a long time and new markets. So certainly there's that opportunity, as our new markets mature, to look more like our more mature markets.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

It's interesting because I would think, you know, some companies say when they go into a new market or a new country, nobody really knows them very well, so they can instill what we are. So I would think you can go into a new market and say, "We are a digital... Join this loyalty program," for the first time, and you can get people to jump on and assume that that's what everyone does.

So it seems like

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

The uptick is pretty good.

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yeah.

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

Yeah.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Yeah.

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

We have a QR code, we feature it. So even those newer markets are not far away from that 65% average. There, there are some markets above it, too.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Do you see a higher average check for those people that are using the... Or a change in terms of behavior? I know some talk about obviously-

... it could drive, it can incentivize more behavior or whatnot, to spend more uptick.

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yeah, I mean, I think as we as we incent behaviors, we certainly see this. I don't think we've shared anything on differences in check between the program. And, you know, for now, our primary goal has really been more driving frequency rather than driving ticket with the program. And so, so that's our focus, and I think it's just a great source of data, too, to look at, you know, how things might change. So we break down our rewards customers by different cohorts, and so when they join the program, we also look at different frequency levels and how they change. And so, you know, again, I think as we go through the year, it's an awesome, you know, to have that level of data to see how the business is changing and evolving.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Yep... a couple of big moves, you know, over the past couple of quarters from a balance sheet and a liquidity standpoint. If you could just walk us through the high level thought process as to the changes that were made, and why now was the right time to do those things?

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

Yeah, we're really pleased with how we sequenced that. First, we went and activated to upsize our credit facility in August, and moved that up to $650 million in total. Then we started looking at borrowing rates and interest rates, and decided the window was open for us to do a primary equity offering, and took that cash in, wiped out our line of credit, and put some cash on the balance sheet. And really felt like with the, with the elevated build costs that we're experiencing, with the fact that we had done a lot more ground leases, which use a more capital per site, to be able to control our pipeline and execute it so cleanly through COVID, you know, we used more cash. That was a positive use of cash, but we used more cash.

It was an opportune time to kind of bolster the balance sheet. And, yeah, I think we were fortunate to get in a window where it was well accepted, the uptake on it, and now we're sitting there with cash on our balance sheet. Net debt is gone, and we have effectively $700 million of total liquidity at our disposal, which should take us through a long runway of growth.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

How should we think about... When we talk about kind of sales drivers, obviously, investors tend to focus on comps with the health of the business, but with your business, it seems like a whole lot should be the focus on unit growth, which, as you talk about, is tremendous. So from a mid-teens or greater type unit growth perspective, like, how do you decide what the right growth rate is? I mean, it seems like-

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

Yeah

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

... presumably you could go faster. Many would say, go slower and fine-tune the operations. Like, how do you decide, and now, Christine coming in, to say, "You know what? Maybe it should be at a different level." Like, what's the gating factor? What keeps you from going faster or slower?

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Well, the number one gating factor for us is certainly people and our people system, and so it is so critically important that we are growing from within. Again, every single market we open is with an operator that's been with the company for a long time. And, you know, when we look at that metric, we're actually in a really healthy space. We have a huge pipeline of operators who are ready to open those next shops, and so that is the biggest gating factor for us, is when are we ready, and when do we have someone who can go and operate and open a new state? I think when you take a step back to the next level, you know, we're looking really closely at how markets are receiving us.

What's the right pace and order in which to enter a market to grow the brand in the, in the best way? We've done a lot of work on brand awareness and looking at the health of our brand everywhere. And so we're really encouraged by the customer behaviors we're seeing, and know that in some of our new markets, we really have a great opportunity to continue to grow the brand awareness as we grow into these, into these new markets. But you know, I think that despite the rapid growth rate, we really have the people systems in place to support that.

You know, I've seen great, you know, not only great turnover rates compared to the industry for our employee base, also great satisfaction rates in our employee base, even as we go into new markets. All of those things are things we continue to look at and watch as we go into new markets. Now, we're also focused on, you know, on traffic and on our same-store sales. I would say, when you look at our growth, you know, this year, about 30%, that, you know, we're happy as we go into a new market to do infill and see some sales transfer out of that growth rate. Because if you're growing at about 30%, you see 200-300 basis points of sales transfer, it's a really good trade-off for us to make.

We do think as we're building sales, though, there's a number of different layers that we can still go after to build that traffic in our existing and in our new markets. So, you know, one, the rewards program is super important. Two, just looking at how we're doing innovation, and where can we use innovation to, you know, introduce new day parts or to really look at enhancing frequency with beverages that drive frequency in a different way. So we're looking at all of those things.

We're also looking at the way that we spend paid media, so to grow some of that awareness, especially in new markets, a little bit quicker, and going from a really retargeting-focused, kind of, paid media strategy to a broader reach paid media strategy, as we're so new in so many of our markets. So again, I think we're pleased with where we are on both fronts.

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

Yeah, and I would say operations, right, throughput, speed of service, we're always focused on that, and we'll chip away at that over time to be able to make things faster and more efficiently, so we can keep those lines moving or shorten those lines when they get long. That's a sales driver, too.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Yeah. You know, Christine, before, when you said that there's a line a mile long-

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yeah

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

... my initial thought is, these are people standing in line. Then I was quickly reminded, well, it's cars.

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yeah, it's cars.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

It makes it a little bit more manageable, but still, that is a tremendous line anymore.

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

It is.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

There are companies that say, "You know what? I wanna just further infill an existing market, because there's so many economies of scale from a people and marketing and, leverage standpoint." And others say, "No, it's great to plant flags in different places to prove out the brand." How do you think about, you know, the next number of years, whether it's a mix of stores in new versus existing markets or, you know, how you think about that versus we wanna get to, you know, the 50 U.S. states or?

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yeah, I mean, I think for us it's both, really. That because the, you know, beverage is such a habitual occasion, and it's something that people do really often, you also can put them very close together. And so even if, even as we're kind of moving to maybe put. As we go into a market, you know, put the stores a little further apart to start with, that's still actually compared to everything else, really close together. And so, you know, as we go into markets, even as we're looking at kind of widening a little bit before we go deeper, it still means putting, you know, a scale number of our shops in each of the markets that we go into.

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

Yeah. So 18 months ago, we were at 25% of our shops were going in and impacting another location. Now we're at about a 50% rate. You know, probably, you'd like to moderate that slightly, not go much past that, 'cause it just gives you a good balance. And to Christine's point, and we've described this in our meetings today, you know, you might do shop one, two, three, but the sequence of that, you might jump over to the third area first, space them out a little bit, then come back and hit the middle, versus in sequence, and allow these shops to season out a little bit better. We're not talking about long-term changes there. We're just talking about refinement that helps us move through the sales creation that we need to have in a new market.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Right. So not that long ago, it was 25% of stores were potentially cannibalizing, and you got it up to 50-

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

Yeah.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

which is infilling existing

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

A lot of it.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

In the middle is a reasonable text.

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

Yeah.

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yeah.

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

We went heavy in Texas for very good reason.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Yep, understood. The people side of things, you said, is the biggest potential gating factor. Well, first of all, you said there are 325 operators with seven years. Are those operators that are ready to take on another site, that's your pipeline of people?

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Pipeline of people, yeah.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

So you couldn't open up more than 325 next year because those are the people that you can apply or affect?

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yes. So each one of our operators is operating somewhere. When we first go into a market, they have a single shop, but they can get up to three to seven shops. And so that pipeline of 325 operators can open many more than 325 shops.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Yeah.

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

They sit just above store, but because we really want to invest as we go into new markets, we start them with one shop in that new market, so they can learn the market, learn the community, learn the schools that are around them, and really invest in building our brand and who we are in those markets.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Right. Only because people investments are getting a lot of attention,

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yeah

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

A nd inflation is outsized in the industry right now. I know you raised at least your manager wages in the most recent, on the quarter we're sitting in now, or effectively, that was when it was implemented. Just wondering, what was the rationale for now, whether or not that was proactive or reactive? And only because I'm sure you've gotten that question a lot, but just the California side of things and the idea that come April, fast food restaurants are paying a whole lot more in labor. Like, how do you think about that? How do you address a market like that in such a unique situation?

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yeah. So, I think, one, first, on the manager wage investments that we, that we made, our philosophy from a labor perspective is always to be proactive. I think that, we have really happy team members. Our turnover is in a great place, and when you look at that, I think you never wanna get behind in those areas. And so, for us, it's always proactively looking at where the markets that we operate, where are others sitting, how do we compare, and let's make sure that we stay in a place where we feel really good about where we are from a wage investment perspective. We also, from a development perspective, added some duties that were sitting kind of above shop into our shop manager duties.

Part of that is really to get them more ready for that next level in those operator jobs. So as our shop managers are sitting, getting ready, kind of giving them more of those responsibilities, so they'll be even more successful when they go into new markets. As far as some of the wage investments, you know, we're a West Coast brand, so we are very used to, you know, what's happened with minimum wages on the West Coast over time and kind of the frequent upticks in minimum wage. You know, in particular, in the California piece, what we're doing is, we've just done an extensive pricing study to really get ready, understand where our opportunities might be.

We are looking at what the rest of the market is going to do, and I think that with pricing, it's always great to be kind of in line with what others are doing and when they're doing it. And from a customer perspective, it makes a lot of sense when they know that a big wage move is going to happen. They're going to be expecting that that might show up kind of in their, in their local—what they pay for locally as well. And so just being thoughtful about that and getting that all, you know, ready to go for April.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

It seems like if you were trying to find a positive light to all of this, in California in particular, we've heard a number of companies say that, "Well, first of all, you're putting more money in the consumers' pockets, and that's your customer.

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Absolutely.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

That's not all bad things. And just the idea that, when you're in business or your segment, it seems like it's primarily independent, or there's a lot of independent operators selling beverages, it would seem like independents would have a tougher time managing through something like this. There could be, we've heard a number of concepts talk about how they expect the competition to ease, because some people just won't be able to run a business with one or three or five shops, with just that level, without taking up huge price increases. Hopefully, there's a way that you could benefit and perhaps go on our more market share. In an environment like that, that's tough for others.

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

No, I mean, I think that we would, you know, echo and always feel great about putting, you know, more money in our Broistas' pocket, and I do believe that, you know, we have a lot of customers out there who will be making more in California come April. You know, we're a small ticket indulgence, and so it's a fun place to go. And then, you know, as far as competition, look, I mean, I hope that, you know, everyone does well through this. I think in California, a lot of concepts have higher volumes, and so, you know, it'll be a good learning to see how it's absorbed and, you know, how this all plays out.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Yep. Got another five minutes or so. I've got a number of other questions, but we'll take a pause and see if there's any questions from the audience.

Speaker 4

Christine, Starbucks had some problems because they were almost every drink was customized, and it took a longer time, and it made it tough on the baristas, and they didn't have the interactions that they felt were important in serving their customers. How complex are your beverages?

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yeah, I would say our customers do like to customize their beverages. In fact, one of the things they like to do is, if they come through the line, tell the Broista, "Hey, you know, make me whatever you want today, and surprise me." You know, I think we've actually made it fun and been really thoughtful as we innovate. I think, you know, it's a super unique working environment, right? That we're a drive-through only concept, and so you get to greet the customer in the line, and you're greeting the customer through the window. But our work environment is enclosed, so you can listen to great music.

You know, you come to work oftentimes with, with friends and folks you wanna hang out with, and, you know, as we design and make beverages, it was really the original design was to be like a bar, and so you're kinda mixing things up and making it fun. And so, you know, we have, we have put in things like freeze machines and things that, you know, some of the more monotonous parts of the job that folks don't like as much, we have taken those pieces. But again, every single thing we do, the first question we ask ourselves is: Is this going to be a better environment for our broistas or not? And how do we, how do we process everything we do through that lens?

Because I think when you have happy folks greeting your customers, it's the best place you can be.

Speaker 4

Right. Thank you.

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Thank you.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Just in the last couple of minutes, from a profitability standpoint, the restaurant margins, how should we think about that going into 2024? The past couple of years have been tremendous with inflation and now easing of inflation and menu pricing and whatnot, but the steady state, should we think of... What year would you say it is the most comparable to? How should we think about commodity and labor inflation versus pricing going into 2024?

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

Well, a lot of change. I would say that we're well-prepared to get through 2024 because our margins are in a good place. I wouldn't say they're peaking. I wouldn't say, you know, I wouldn't say directionally which way they're gonna go. I would just say they're high enough where if we have to make some investments, like we just decided to do November 1 in shop manager wages, we're well prepared to absorb that. We should be in a more normal, outside of the wage moves we've made in the California piece, probably a more normal wage escalation environment. As we move east, our average wage moves downward, based on portfolio. It feels like a lot of the supply chain challenges we've had are starting to normalize and abate and come back to us a little bit.

So I'd just summarize it in, we're in a great place, but we'll be wise and thoughtful about whether it's appropriate for that to go up or for us to make some investments.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

On the pricing side of it, I mean, some management teams think that pricing is, you take whatever is necessary to offset the inflation in good times or bad, and others say that is not our... I'm just wondering how you think about the use of- what is, what's pricing's role in this whole situation? Do you price fully to offset inflation? Do you perhaps underprice to allow more traffic to grow? Like, how do you think about it conceptually now going into hopefully less inflation? So the past couple of years have been a unique example, but-

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

Sure. Yeah.

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Yeah, no, I would say, you know, I think pricing is a, is a complex topic, as it should be. So one, I think it's having the right data, so understanding where your customers are, how they feel about your price, understanding where your competition is, and where you're priced relative to it. I think it's really important to understand, you know, which beverages and which, which areas do you truly have unique products that it's hard to compare to others, and what are those like, reference points, like the gallon of milk in the grocery store? And so how do you think about pricing those in a way that's really signaling your overall price to the market?

You know, as far as, I think that, you know, being prepared for the environment and what it is, is always something worth thinking through, but we also have to be knowledgeable as, you know, where are our customers, and what's going to drive the most traffic for us, and where do we have kind of points where we think price could actually, you know, not serve what we're trying to do? And again, you know, to Charley's point, I think we feel great about where our margins are, and so, you know, feel good about where we are heading into 2024.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Great. Well, we've exhausted our full 40 minutes, but I wanted to take this time to thank Dutch Bros, and Christine, and Charley, and Jonathan, the audience and team for joining us today. I hope you had a good day of meetings, and thank you, everyone, for joining us.

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

Yeah.

Christine Barone
President and CEO, Dutch Bros

Thank you.

Charley Jemley
CFO, Dutch Bros

Thank you.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Thank you.

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