I'm Craig Aaron, CFO, and Pat Nolan from Investor Relations. You know, Craig, we were just sort of, you know, chatting right before we started. You're coming up on almost a year of being in your new CFO role. I'm not gonna ask you to sort of rate your performance, but I guess just as a company, like, how would you sort of view, you know, performance over what's really been a quite challenging year in the industry? And, you know, what were some things you think BorgWarner has done well and execute against? And what are some areas where there can still be, you know, some potential room for improvement?
Yeah. First of all, really happy to be in the role. This is, I'm very passionate about the company. I've been with the company for going on 18 years, so this is really a dream position for me.
Mm-hmm.
So, I'd start there. As you mentioned, you know, from a top-line perspective, it's been a bit of a challenging year when you look at industry production, first half, second half. Two different stories. First half, kind a flat industry production. Second half, more down 6%.
Mm-hmm.
year-over-year, so two different halves. You know, from my perspective, I think the company's done an exceptional job of controlling what we can control. You know, we're really focused in three areas. Let's make sure that we outgrow industry production. So even though the industry might be down 6%, we need to outgrow industry production. And when we look at the full year, we expect outgrowth of 200 to 300 basis points. I think that shows our focus on technology, on supporting our customers, having great products for each of the industries, each of the different segments that we serve. And then it's about increasing operating income, increasing margin, well, we've done that this year in a pretty big way.
Well, you know, if you look at kind of the midpoint of our guide, we expect that to be up about 30 basis points year-over-year. And when you compare that and exclude Eldor, we're actually up about 60 basis points. So we're focused on controlling our costs. We're structuring the business productivity. We're structuring savings, etc. And then it's about delivering cash. And we're expecting about $525 million in free cash flow this year. We indicated earlier in the year that we're gonna deploy all of that cash to shareholders, which we've effectively already done. We've repurchased about $400 million of our own stock this year. And we're paying about $100 million in dividends with our fourth-quarter dividend payment just around the corner here.
From my perspective, I think we've executed extremely well in what has been a pretty difficult market with overall industry production down about 3% year- over- year.
Yeah. I guess, you know, and that was super helpful as we sort of think about, you know, the guidance that you sort of just laid out here. You know, we have three weeks left in the year, maybe, or at least three production weeks, maybe even less, given some of the shutdowns. You know, we've obviously seen some news. There's been some production announcements sort of here and there, as there typically is. Is there anything that sort of has really caught you off guard or that relative to sort of how you saw the rest of the year playing out?
Yeah. I mean, I think I have to be careful on what I can say about 2024. But as I mentioned, you know, overall industry production is a bit challenged in the fourth quarter.
Mm-hmm.
And so it really goes back to we have to just focus on what we can control.
Mm-hmm.
Our focus is on our cost structure, you know, making sure that we're executing those various savings initiatives so that ultimately we're really proud of our margin profile.
Mm-hmm.
Let's make sure that we can deliver that quarter in, quarter out. That's what we're focused on.
Yeah, completely recognizing that you're not gonna sort of, you know, drop 25 guidance on us here, although.
Yeah.
If you want to by all means, but just at a high level, and then, you know, understanding that BorgWarner's goal is to sort of grow faster than the market. I mean, how do you see the market playing out? Because, you know, and maybe even if you could provide some commentary by region, there's been a lot going on, across the three major sort of theaters of the world, whether it's, you know, stimulus in China, whether it's, you know, some challenges in Europe, and then obviously election here in the US.
Mm-hmm.
Has that sort of changed at all over the past month? Like, how do you begin to, I guess, set the backdrop for how you want to plan to execute again in 2025?
Yeah. I mean, I think, looking at the back half of the year, that down 6%.
Yeah.
You know, when you take a look at that and what does that mean for the first half and into 2025? I think, you know, we wanna be, I would say, cautiously optimistic.
Mm-hmm.
But we need to see a change from that Q4, Q3 call it second half run rate.
Yeah.
To, you know, get to what we would call, you know, a reasonable market next year, whether that's flat or slightly down. So, you know, we're coming off a difficult Q3 and Q4.
Mm-hmm.
Let's keep our eye on it. Right now, we're focused on just making sure that we can meet customer demand for the fourth quarter and beyond.
Yeah.
But industry production is certainly a challenge in the second half of the year. And.
Yeah.
We'll take a closer look at that as we get into early 2025 and provide guidance.
As we think about, you know, the two sides of the business, right, the Foundational, you know, call it ICE-related side and sort of the e-product side, you know, again, there's a number of things happening as we sort of think about 2025 and beyond, starting with, you know, higher CO2 regulations in Europe, but also in the U.S., you know, maybe a further sort of push out of, you know, EV growth. So, how are you, well, I guess, not so much how are you playing for it. What are your conversations with your customers about how they are sort of going about some of these challenges? You wanna take that one?
Yeah. I mean, I think it varies by region, but I think the one that you're probably most focused on is getting a lot more headlines, what's gonna happen to Europe next year. I mean, the conversations with our customers, our customers have products that are ready to go, right?
Mm-hmm.
You can look at how many launches or wins that we've announced in Europe, and there's five of them that are launching next year.
Mm-hmm.
They're across the portfolio and inverters and cooling plates and other products. There are clearly new products ready to launch in Europe next year. Still TBD, ultimately, are the regulations gonna be enforced next year?
Mm-hmm.
Is there gonna be some easement? We'll see. The products are there. Our preference would be obviously we'd like the new products to launch. That always is a good thing for our outgrowth.
Mm-hmm.
But that being said, if they don't, it's probably.
Right.
Better for our foundational business. So I think I kinda Europe's a good snapshot of that resilience, okay, if things don't go faster on the electrification side, what's gonna benefit the foundational side of the business and vice versa?
If they do change, I mean, it seems like they're gonna have to sort of at least start to try to sort of comply because it doesn't seem like things are changing in the near term. So if they incrementally push, you know, the EV portfolio and at the same time, you know, make fewer ICE to sort of get that mix in the right spot, is that still, you think, a fairly neutral outcome for BorgWarner given that portfolio resiliency?
I think we'll have to wait and see the details. Obviously, when you think about it in the context of market will be what it's gonna to be, right? We can't control that part of it. But if there is compliance and those new products are coming, that should be beneficial for the e-product side of our business.
You had mentioned on the third quarter call that there were a bunch of eProducts launches in the quarter and more coming in the fourth quarter. Is that the same stuff you were just talking about in terms of sort of the launches for 2025, or is that sort of separate from what's beginning to ramp up here in the back half of the year?
Okay. Do you wanna start?
Yeah. Maybe I'll start and unpacking that one. So yeah, we have a lot of launches, particularly in our Power Drive Systems business unit.
Yeah.
It's occurring in the fourth quarter, but also in Q1, Q2, and into 2025. The good news is they're across the globe, so North America, Europe, Asia, we have a lot of activity in all regions. Ultimately, though, what it will come down to is consumer demand.
Right.
What our customers pull from us. We're focused on getting ready for those launches, but as we sit here today, all of those programs should be launching in 2025.
Yeah, and like you said, though, that will come as a result. It starts in Q4. Those volumes.
Yeah.
Obviously have impacts throughout 2025, and there are additional launches in 2025 as well.
I guess if we take a step back and just sort of, again, think about, you know, you sort of talked about out, Craig, in the beginning about outgrowing.
Yeah.
You know, the market, and you've done that, right?
Yeah.
What if we sliced it a little bit differently and said, okay, well, here's the ICE or sort of the Foundational market. What's the outgrowth there? Here's the, you know, electric portfolio, e-products portfolio. Here's the outgrowth there. And, like, backing out the battery, you know, the battery business. Like, how would you sort of, what kind of range would you sort of put as sort of reasonable targets for each of those businesses?
Yeah. I would say we wanna see outgrowth on both sides of the business. You know, when we look at our outgrowth this year, we're in the 2-300 basis point range. And when I think about the Foundational side, where is that outgrowth coming from? It's in our Drivetrain and Morse Systems segment. It's coming from strong export sales coming out of China into Southeast Asia.
Mm-hmm.
So we're seeing strong pull for that Foundational business, again, exporting into Southeast Asia. On the other side of the portfolio, it's really coming from the battery business.
Mm-hmm.
This year, we had a couple challenges in the Power Drive Systems business. There was a program in North America, a program in Europe.
Mm-hmm.
I'm sorry, in China that didn't materialize like we had hoped.
Right.
But we'll wrap that into next year, and I think, you know, that will provide a benefit as we look into 2025.
So even if the battery business into 2025, there's hope for even if it didn't occur this year. There's hope for outgrowth in the battery business on the E-products.
Absolutely. I mean, when you think about our Power Drive Systems business unit, that's gonna be the future growth of the company.
Mm-hmm.
A lot of the launches that we just talked about are in that segment.
Mm-hmm.
You know, when you think about BorgWarner going forward and the growth aspirations, it's gonna be in the E side of our portfolio. Our goal there is grow above industry production, convert that growth in income in the mid-teens on an all-in basis.
Mm-hmm.
Grow income, grow margin. That's our focus.
You know, one of the things you've been able to do here, right, is, you know, I'm going off memory, so don't. I'm sure you'll correct me, but I feel like there was one year where you were increasing, you know, R&D for E-products about $100 million. And then I think there was another year that was order magnitude similar, maybe even a little bit higher.
Mm-hmm.
Since that's sort of been pulled back, like, if we like, given, I guess, how would at what year level of R&D are we sort of back out given sort of some of the push-outs you've seen right now?
Yeah. I would look at it a couple ways. You know, first, where have we been historically from an R&D perspective? And we've been at more elevated levels, like you just talked about, for a couple years, right? And I'd say that mid-5%, 5.5% of sales.
Mm-hmm.
We're navigating more towards call that 5.2-5.3 range. And I would expect us to get down to more of our norm, which is 5% as we kinda move forward.
Mm-hmm.
But when we think about all of that, you know, how are we managing the business? It all comes down to we're gonna outgrow industry production. We gotta take that outgrowth and convert it into income in the mid-teens%, inclusive of R&D, and generate cash.
Yeah.
You know, and that's really where we're focused across the portfolio.
What was that when you were increasing R&D, was that really driven by your customers and, or was that an internal effort to sort of try to develop product for your customers? Like, how much was.
Yeah.
True, I guess, R&D versus sort of engineering for, you know, awards one?
We don't have a lot of people just sitting around thinking about the next XYZ. What we do is the R&D is basically application and engineering.
Okay.
It's supporting launches that we have around the globe. We announced a number of programs, and we were supporting those programs with a lot of engineering investment.
Mm-hmm.
And then obviously things changed on us. And so that's what caused us to do the Power Drive Systems restructuring.
Right.
We really ensure that we couldn't wait for that revenue to come. We had to get our cost structure right. That's why we announced the PDS restructuring in the summertime, right around July.
I'm assuming there's been conversations with those customers about failed volume commitments.
Yeah.
and I think you even maybe you've alluded to some sort of recoveries for that. Or are those conversations persisting and are they ongoing? And what shape does that take, you know, because clearly, you know, they didn't deliver on some promises, but they also sort of have, you know, the offer of new potential business. So how does that sort of manifest into sort of the BorgWarner financials?
Yeah. It's a dynamic conversation. Obviously, you know, we did announce in the third quarter that we had some, you know, pretty sizable recoveries in the Power Drive Systems segment.
Mm-hmm.
It related to what you just talked about. You know, so we're gonna continue to have those conversations annually as we get into 2025 and volumes to materialize like we expected for 2024. We're gonna meet with our customers, have those discussions. They can come in various forms. They could come from a lump sum reimbursement, which we've seen. It can come from a piece price increase as we move forward.
Mm-hmm.
We just navigate those with our customers. But I would say we've been very successful at getting cost recovery actions when they're appropriate.
Yeah. So we touched a little bit on some of the changing landscape. And while let's I sort of wanna focus on, you know, two topics that have really come up in North America and the U.S., I guess, sort of post-election. One is sort of like just the EV outlook here, for North America for the U.S. And if you're able to sort of provide any sort of like high-level views of how you see either what your own or BorgWarner's views of that progressing are, or even more valuable, I guess, would be the types of conversations that you've been having with customers in the wake of slower uptake for EVs?
Yeah. Maybe I'll start and you can.
Yep.
You can add on. You know, well, it's very early.
Yeah.
It's very early days. You know, when you think about any of our markets, North America, Europe, China, it takes time.
Mm-hmm.
For these things to take hold. What I think why BorgWarner is really uniquely positioned is because we have two great portfolios.
Mm-hmm.
We have the Foundational portfolio that's gonna support highly efficient combustion engines that go into a hybrid vehicle, that go into a combustion vehicle. And then we have the product portfolio that's gonna go into hybrid vehicles. It's gonna go into battery electric vehicles.
Mm-hmm.
So if it's a little bit slower in the U.S., that's okay.
Mm-hmm.
We'll just provide Foundational products. These are mature products. We're number one or number two in the markets that we serve. So we'll be highly successful that way. If E moves a little bit faster, then maybe what we expect as we sit here today, knowing the new administration is coming in, we'll provide E products and we'll ensure that we convert that growth into income in the mid-teens. So that's what I say. I think no matter how it plays out, BorgWarner will be successful. Pat, anything else?
The only thing I'd add is if there's any silver lining to the election from that regulatory standpoint, it's maybe it brings some clarity because.
Right.
The EV slowdown in North America didn't just happen a couple weeks ago with the election. It started.
Right.
A better part of a year ago, and our customers have been struggling about what their new mix is ultimately gonna be.
Mm-hmm.
Now, hopefully, we'll get some regulatory certainty. They can just decide what their portfolio is gonna look like going forward. And then we're happy to help them whichever direction they wanna go. If they wanna go down the Foundational path of improvement, great. If they wanna do it advanced hybrids, awesome.
Mm-hmm.
If they wanna do a full dev, we can do that too. So I think that's the way we would think about it. I don't think it's nothing has necessarily changed in North America from that standpoint because it already been weaker based on consumer demand. Hopefully, we now have certainty of what the portfolio is look like going forward.
Are there more customer conversations on advanced hybrids, plug-in hybrids, EV range extender-type vehicles? And maybe just for the benefit of the audience, you can remind everyone sort of what parts of the BorgWarner portfolio from each side of the business sort of really gets on that type of vehicle?
Yeah. So you should think about it in terms of that parts of the portfolio. All of our Foundational products apply to hybrids.
Mm-hmm.
Turbochargers, timing system. All those products will still be on advanced.
On a plug-in as well?
Yeah.
Yeah.
It's maybe slightly different specs.
Mm-hmm.
But still, you would have that.
Mm-hmm.
And then our eProducts also go on those hybrid vehicles. When you think about our business today on the eProducts side, if you X out the battery business, about 40% of our eProducts business today is for advanced hybrids.
Mm-hmm.
Well, why is that? If you look at the NEV market in China, it's in that same zip code in terms of that split, so these advanced hybrids have been out there in the market. It's been mostly in China, then coming in Europe, and now if they come to North America, it'll be good. There are conversations with customers, then and there's specific programs. They haven't gone to the RFQ phase yet.
Okay. I mean, I guess, like you said, it's still sort of early, but so it is the pace of inquiries increasing? Like, what type of urgency is there, I guess, from your customers? And has that actually steadily increased throughout the year, irrespective of the election?
I would say we saw an increase throughout the year. Hopefully, the election will drive some of those programs that are.
Will drive some of those.
We're in this kind of let's do the RFQ, but they haven't been awarded yet to anyone, but hopefully, that'll push this over the finish line.
Is there, do you think there's, you know, historically, some of the customers, especially in North America, take some time from, you know, RFQ to sort of actually getting the product and, you know, SOP? Do you see any given that this sort of it seemingly leverages existing.
Mm-hmm.
Power plants, etc., right? Like, you could take maybe an existing engine and sort of, you know, add it to some sort of hybrid. Is there the potential for those programs to move faster, or you think it's status quo?
Still gonna even if it moves faster, it's still gonna be three-plus years before the vehicles are in the market.
You know, the other thing on, coming out of the election on investors' minds, obviously, is trade and tariffs. And, you know, I know you've got a footprint, you know, in the U.S. and sort of Mexico. I don't want to say this is a BorgWarner issue. I think it's sort of an industry issue, especially when you look at sort of where, you know, final assembly capacity is located and really even beyond you, a lot of other sort of supply, content come from. But, just remind us of sort of your footprint and, you know, what could potentially happen if it was in place and if you're even able to offer a view as to where do you think anything will happen there?
Yeah. Important to just remember, from a regional basis, typically, we produce in the region where our customers produce. There can be cross-country borders, but generally, on a regional basis, we're producing within the region. If you were to think about our specific exposure, I'm assuming you're asking related to Mexico.
Yeah.
Our revenue in Mexico last year was $1.76 billion. So it's not immaterial, but it's not the biggest number. In general, most of our sales in Mexico are to plants in Mexico. There is some that goes north over the border. There are some products that come south over the border. But in general, it's exposed to our customers in that region. Largely all of our products are produced on both sides of the border. So there's flexibility there. But I think we're ultimately gonna have to see what our customers decide.
Yeah.
Because we're ultimately serving those plants, and if those plants need to move or they decide to move them, we'll adjust accordingly. There's cost and time that comes with that, though.
Of course. Just I mean, understanding that, but like, and understand that this would ultimately end up into sort of, you know, one larger negotiation with your customers. But just if for argument's sake, the tariff is put in tomorrow, right, and the product was shipped across the border.
Mm-hmm.
Who is actually bearing the cost of that right now? Is that clear, or is it not clear?
Depends on who the importer record is.
Okay.
And that can be. It can vary by contract. It can vary by customer.
Okay.
It's not a uniform.
Not uniform.
Like it's data.
It depends how the contract is written. Okay.
It takes possession when?
Okay. And it's written, and there's contracts that go both ways, it sounds like.
Correct.
Okay, and what is there any components from any European facilities that end up in vehicles made in the U.S.?
I'm sure there's some, but I don't think that's a material number.
Okay, let's sort of turn our attention to China a little bit. You know, you've talked about 90% of your E products' revenues with domestic players. So obviously, some good traction there, especially when we've seen how some of the foreign players have fared there. What's, like, can you just sort of go over the competitive dynamics and, you know, what, why does someone choose a BorgWarner versus a domestic supplier, especially since it does seem like there's not a, it's not sort of necessarily forceful, but it does seem like there's a push from within China to sort of use more of a domestic supply chain?
Yeah. So I think you need to start with we've been in China for a very long time. We have deep customer relationships that go back decades and decades. So we have a lot of credibility with our customers. I think winning in that China market, which we've done really successfully, comes down to speed.
Mm-hmm.
Speed is very much appreciated in leading with technology.
Mm-hmm.
We have a very strong China team that lives those beliefs, leads with speed and technology. I think that's what's resulted in us being very successful in China on both sides of the portfolio, whether it's the Foundational portfolio or the E product side of the portfolio. I think that's been our secret.
Mm-hmm.
Thanks, and we'll continue to execute in that way.
Is there one on the eProducts side? Is there one product, whether it's inverters or something else, that has sort of resonated better with the domestics or w?
I think all of our products have done reasonably well. We've announced inverter wins. We've announced IDM wins.
Mm-hmm.
Anything else you would add?
No, the only thing I'd add is they certainly could source individual components, but there's probably more of a propensity to source full system solutions in China than there are in other parts of the world. And I think that stems from their preference for speed.
Mm-hmm.
The phrase off-the-shelf is not the right description, but they're using known technologies that they can make small adjustments to to allow them to get to market faster, so they like some more of those system solutions because it ultimately increases that speed to market.
And on the Foundational side within China, you know, if you run sort of the numbers like a little bit more, you know, more weighted towards, still, I think, more sort of domestic than foreign, but a little bit more foreign exposure there as well. You know, how do you sort of managing your footprint there as maybe some of those customers might be in structural decline? And then on the domestic side, maybe this is difficult for you to exactly know, but it does seem, what you alluded to earlier, that that's at least been buoyed by some of the exports of ICE vehicles from China to whether it's Asia, other parts of Southeast Asia or South America. So, is that a trend you expect to continue?
If their customers begin to localize, is that something you would look to follow them into those regions?
Yeah. I mean, we're gonna continue to look for growth opportunities, and if they localize in different regions, we're there to support them. You know, we have a global footprint already established in most major regions of the world. So I think we have the ability to support them right away.
Mm-hmm.
You know, from an export business perspective, it's really encouraging that we've seen that the last couple of years. You know, as I sit here today, I don't see any material change, but we're ultimately, it's gonna come down to what our customers pull.
Mm-hmm.
In various regions. So I think we have great technology across our portfolio, and it's obviously not only supporting the China market, but it's also supporting their plans as they move outside of China and export to other regions of the world.
Maybe just, you know, one other thing that's sort of been on investors' minds and certainly when we sort of look at, you know, when the phone rings or when they look at the inboxes, it seems to be there's greater concern now about some of the Chinese suppliers, you know, moving into Europe or maybe moving into North America, which I don't think we've seen a ton in North America, but correct me if I'm wrong. Europe, maybe we've seen a little bit, but that's a sort of very broad statement, you know, sort of supplier statement. What have you seen from a BorgWarner competitive perspective? And do you see that all as a sort of a credible threat for the Chinese to become larger players on a global scale?
I think if you look at our business in China, I mean, you referenced the eProducts mix, but even our overall mix in China, we're with 70% with the local OEMs as our business there. We're more or less in line with them, maybe slightly overweight how the market shifted the past year. I think that really speaks to our competitiveness in that market. You're right that there are Chinese suppliers that have increased their capabilities over the past several years, but I think if you look at our performance, that market has shown our ability to be able to compete with them.
Mm-hmm.
If and when they expand into other parts of the world, I think our competitive position would be as strong or stronger than it is in China.
Have you seen any of that yet, in Europe or North America or else?
No. No. I don't think I've seen that.
Not yet, but.
In China, for sure, but not outside of China.
Yeah, and I think it's very logical. If we're winning in China, which we've demonstrated.
Mm-hmm.
We have. We already have the capability in place in other regions of the world. It seems very logical that we would be a great partner for them.
Yeah.
Let's see how that materializes as we move forward. Can we just, like, I know you've done some restructuring. You sort of mentioned that, but how would you sort of assess your overall footprint? I guess I'm specifically focused on Europe and China because in Europe, right, you can see sort of production is still 20% below prior peak. Things have structurally changed, and that has become moved from a net export market to a net import market.
Mm-hmm.
You know, you might have additional challenges on some of the European vehicles into the U.S. or other markets if tariffs, you know, come into play. And, you know, a lot of those customers are struggling. So one, is there do you think there's needs to be further work done with your footprint to stay ahead of what challenges you see in Europe? And then in China, I guess I'm just curious, you know, as you sort of seen the shift between domestics and foreign, are you just sort of shifting the allocation within your facilities, or is there an opportunity for maybe for some consolidation, or other work to be done on the footprint side?
You want me to start?
Yeah. Sure.
So, if I just come back to me if I missed it.
Yeah. Yeah.
Try to remember those. So in Europe, you're right. Europe was part of our cost reduction efforts over the past several years. I think when you think about our footprint in Europe, you should not think about a BorgWarner plant dedicated to one OEM. If one OEM loses or gains share, that's gonna materially most of our plants are serving multiple customers. And I expect if you see some of those newer customers moving to Europe, they'll supply those customers as well. There's also inherent flexibility between our Foundational and eProducts business. Seven of our plants in Europe today can produce either Foundational or eProducts. So I think you have flexibility from a customer standpoint. You have flexibility from an end product standpoint. And I think that's ultimately how we're gonna manage it.
I don't think I'd said describe BorgWarner's footprint in Europe as, when you talk about below peak, that we're sitting on 20% excess capacity. We're gonna.
Yeah.
You see us typically adjust our costs.
The only thing I would add is we take a proactive approach.
Mm-hmm.
Kind of what you indicated in your commentary.
Yeah.
To restructuring our business.
Yeah.
We announced actions in 2023. We announced actions in 2024, so we're always looking ahead.
Right.
It's an important lever that we need to continue to drive efficiency in our business to deliver that incremental teens conversion.
Yeah. I guess the question was, is it were some of these actions taken sort of more in response to some of the challenges or looking ahead sort of so you don't get burned by some of the challenges?
It's always proactive, meaning we know we need to continue to focus on getting costs out of our business.
Mm-hmm.
To stay competitive.
Mm-hmm.
To win business and then to deliver that incremental income.
Yeah.
So.
As it relates to the Chinese capacity, though.
Right.
Keep in mind that is a business that's been growing.
Right.
I don't think it's a situation where we were doing with one customer switching to the other customer. Our mix has shifted over time.
Mm-hmm.
So back in 2016, our mix foreign versus domestic was closer to 40% domestic. Now it's 70% domestic versus global. So I think yes, there's flexibility within the plants, but you have to keep in mind it's been a net growth business, so you've actually been adding capacity in that market.
And presumably the comment you made in Europe is similar for China in that it's not plants dedicated to customers. So even if there's shifts within the customers, you can sort of reallocate capacity there.
Mm-hmm.
Why don't we just pause to see if there's anything in the audience? Is that a question? No? All right. The battery business, I think you're targeting about $700 million in sales this year. It sounds like the capacity build-out that you've done is sort of mostly complete. So do you sort of hit full sort of run rate ramp in at some point in the fourth quarter? And is that sort of a good jumping-off point to think about 2025 for that business?
So you're right. The business is tracking, we said around $700 million. That's at the low end of our forecast that we had going into the year where we're seeing a little bit of weakness within North America versus those original expectations. As far as the capacity expansion, you're pretty much done now as we move through the fourth quarter. That capacity, don't think about it as that's 2025 capacity. Now the capacity we're putting in place was to support the original aspirations for that business through 2027.
Mm-hmm.
But how I would describe the business today, where if you would ask us a year and a half ago, we would have said we were capacity-constrained. Today, I think we have sufficient capacity to meet our customer needs.
Mm-hmm.
Ultimately, those customer volumes and that customer pull is gonna drive the trajectory of that business over the next couple of years rather than we're turning on a line, and that's how it's gonna drive the revenue higher.
Right. And so, you know, I know that sort of business provides a mix of, you know, trucks and buses. Is there any, like, presumably it's, you know, the Europe plant is for Europe, the North America plant is for Europe. Is it more buses versus trucks in North America and a different sort of mix in Europe, or is it pretty similar across both theaters?
Heavily weighted towards bus in both regions.
Buses. Yeah. And, you know, from a competitive standpoint in that business, how do we sort of see the landscape, for commercial vehicle battery packs?
Yeah. So our business is mainly North America and Europe or.
Yeah.
Total North America and Europe today. We're the last independent battery supplier left in the Western world for that part of that market. So we're effectively solving a solution for our customers. Portion of that market's gonna be in-house. We think it's.
Mm-hmm.
It's gonna be about 50/50 in-house versus outsourced. And for us, it's coming down to the same thing as in our light vehicle business. Are we delivering that value to our customers?
Can you just remind us when the FinDreams sort of portion kicks in?
Yeah. So today, our battery packs are all NMC-based.
Yeah.
We're now going through the phase of we have our partnership or agreement with FinDreams, and that business can supply battery packs outside of China to the commercial vehicle market with LFP. We're in the process of getting those packs ready now so that they can meet all the Western standards, and we have to now approach our customers with that. We haven't got an award yet. When you get an award, it's probably a couple of years out when the revenue comes, but we're getting to the phase now where we can start talking to our customers about the product.
How are the lines in the facility set up flexible enough to sort of accommodate either/or, or would there be a need to be a specific portion of the plant set up to accommodate the LFP cells?
It would be a different line. It's a different cap, it's slightly less capital-intensive of a product than the NMC programs.
Mm-hmm.
But obviously, we have footprint. Just like we did with the NMC products, we'd find somewhere in the BorgWarner Network too.
Right.
Seneca is a great example.
Right.
Today, they do transfer cases, and that's where we added our North American capacity.
The capacity expansion was all NMC.
Right.
It wasn't LFP. But is there room left in those plants to accommodate LFP or if not?
We have space if.
Okay.
We were if we needed it.
Okay. I guess, you know, maybe to sort of, you know, close here, you know, you've resegmented the business into four segments. You've got, you know, two which sort of lean more Foundational, two which lean more E products now. I guess it's not too different from sort of how you thought about the business before, maybe just a little bit more neatly aligned. But.
Mm-hmm.
Given that this is sort of still relatively new for investors, maybe just at a high level, we could sort of take a quick tour through those segments and sort of what are the growth and/or profit drivers for each of those segments over, not in a very specific, you know, I'm not talking about 2025, just over sort of the midterm here.
Yeah. Yeah. So when you think about our business, this is the first time since I've been with BorgWarner where our internal segments and our external segments are completely aligned.
Mm-hmm.
That's really positive from my perspective. We have two primarily focused, or I would say two focused Foundational business units. It's Turbo and Thermal Technologies and Drivetrain and Morse Systems, two different segments. Those are Foundationally focused business units. The products that are incorporated into those business units are number one or number two in the markets that they serve. These are very mature businesses, highly profitable businesses. They deliver a lot of profit and a lot of cash.
Mm-hmm.
It's about 80% of our revenue today between those two segments. The other 20% of our revenue is our Power Drive Systems business unit and our Battery & Charging Systems business units. Those are eProducts business units. Those will be the future growth engine of the company. We fully expect that those business units will continue to grow. We fully expect that as they grow, they will convert in the mid-teens on an all-in basis.
Mm-hmm.
So that's how you should think about our business as we move forward. You know, we feel like we've given now investors really strong transparency.
Mm-hmm.
To both sides of our portfolio in a more meaningful way. And that's why we did the resegmentation.
Yeah. Maybe just to close here, Aaron, you know, you alluded to earlier the strong free cash generation and sort of returning of all the cash. You know, it doesn't seem to me like you need, based on our conversation today, sort of a ton new incremental capital, you know, expenditure sort of, you know, or an increase, I guess, in sort of what you spend annually. Then, you know, the market's gonna do what the market's gonna do, but you seem very focused on sort of converting in there. So to the extent you sort of, you know, are still able to sort of generate strong cash flow, like, how do you sort of view the priorities for that cash going forward?
Yeah, so I view priorities first as making sure that BorgWarner has a really strong balance sheet.
Mm-hmm.
You know, we're an investment-grade credit company. I think that's a competitive advantage for us, and I think it's important to maintain that strength. So when you think about liquidity, the first priorities are liquidity and leverage. For liquidity, we target about 20% of sales. From a leverage perspective, we target two times on a growth basis. When I look at our balance sheet at the end of the third quarter, I put a check mark next to both of those items. We indicated, you know, coming out of the July call, Fred said, "Hey, I don't see any M&A materializing in the near term," meaning the rest of 2024. So that's why it was important to take that free cash flow, call it that $525 million, and return it to shareholders.
Mm-hmm.
So our priorities after the strong balance sheet is M&A. With no M&A in sight, we bought back $400 million of stock and paid $100 million in dividends. That's effectively all of our free cash flow.
Mm-hmm.
This year, we're gonna continue to follow that same disciplined approach as we go into 2025.
Maybe just on sort of M&A and sort of the pipeline, I understand that there's nothing sort of immediate, but is it possible that either on the Foundational, would you at this point consider a Foundational tuck-in M&A, or would it sort of more be on the eProducts side where you'd consider it?
I think we're more leaning. I mean, we would move more on the E side of the business. That's what you've seen us do.
Mm-hmm.
Over the last several transactions. You know, M&A is still an important aspect of our businesses. It's still an important priority for us. But I would say our priorities and our thresholds have changed maybe a little bit than they have the last several years. You know, we're really focused on maybe three things. It's, "Hey, does that asset bring product leadership to BorgWarner? Does it help improve our portfolio? What's the margin profile of that business? Is it gonna dilute our margin profile?
Mm-hmm.
It's something that we're really sensitive to because we're really proud of our margin profile. And then we're gonna have to run a lot of different scenarios from a discounted cash flow perspective.
Mm-hmm.
To make sure we're paying a fair value for that asset. There's a lot of volatility.
Right.
On the E side of the business, we need to make sure that we're paying a fair price for what we see. So I would say that's the metrics. That's the items that we look at to make sure we're transacting.
I know we're coming up on time, but just to close that thread, I guess what I'm wondering is if you maybe it's too early to see this, but do you think there might be somewhat of a loosening or sort of, maybe even sort of changing valuations on that E product side in light of sort of potential push-out or elongated EV adoption?
I think it's always an individual conversation. You know, the businesses that we tend to acquire, usually aren't public.
Mm-hmm.
They can be private. And so, you know, do you see eye to eye with that owner of that business?
Mm-hmm.
Some still have valuations that are here, and we think the value's here.
Mm-hmm.
You gotta have a perfect marriage where, you know, the value that we see and the value that they're willing to sell for makes sense.
For the benefit of those online, his hand was lower for where he had thought the value was.
Yeah.
And his seller's hand was higher. But, with that, Craig and Pat, thanks so much for joining us. I really.
Thank you.
Really appreciate it.