Calix, Inc. (CALX)
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Needham 19th Annual Technology, Media & Consumer Conference

May 16, 2024

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Good afternoon. Welcome to Needham's 19th Annual Technology and Media Conference. I'm Ryan Koontz. I cover the comm tech sector here at Needham, which includes cloud communications and broadband networking. We're really pleased to have Calix with me today, who delivers a broadband platform and managed services that are enabling their customers to improve life one community at a time. Really happy to have with us today Chairperson Carl Russo, and Head of IR, Jim Fanucchi. Welcome, guys. How are you?

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Great!

Jim Fanucchi
Head of Investor Relations, Calix

Great.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

It's been a good conference.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Excellent. Glad to hear that. A lot of satisfied customers. So, if you're watching on-

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

I can't, I can't speak for that. I enjoyed it.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

If you're watching on the conference platform, feel free to submit questions via the link, and we'll try to get to those toward the end. But we'll start with some planned Q&A with myself and the team. Well, I'm gonna assume most of you are familiar with the recent results from Calix. We don't need to recount those. You're familiar with what Calix is doing in the market. Let's start with something more interesting. You know, we're really seeing the industry go through all kinds of turmoil, ups and downs. Feels like more turmoil than I've seen in the 30 years I've been in the business in the last 3 years, but it's quite a whipsaw. So, you know, if you're...

Carl, I mean, I guess the simple question is, if you're an investor, you know, what is the pitch to invest in Calix? You know, what is driving your business today? Talk about your appliance play, your software play, how you monetize that, and where are you in the evolution to truly becoming a, you know, a software play on appliances?

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Well, I mean, I guess I would back up and say that... And you got a lot of things in there, so we may, we may spend the rest of the time on this one, which is fine, so let's do that.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

I would back up, actually, and encourage investors to look at investing in Calix the same way our customers invest in Calix.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

That may come as an odd statement because our customers don't buy shares in Calix. But actually, when you look at the service provider space and what we do, everything that we do with our customers has very long life cycles, 5, 7, 10, 12, 15 years, and Ryan, you have a history in this space, so you understand what I'm saying. When you're making that kind of a decision-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yes, they don't come around often.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... It's not purchasing.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Those decisions don't come around often.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

And it's not a purchasing decision on their part, because they're not only making that decision one time, they're gonna be living with it for a long time. The equipment is not static. The software is evolving, the features are evolving, and so they're relying upon their choice to not only be there, get it installed, make sure it's working, but to keep them on the leading edge of the marketplace for the duration of that product deployment.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Sure.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

And so they look at those decisions as investment decisions, and they're making decisions around a whole number of factors. By the way, you could say first and first, let's just start at the balance sheet. Are these guys... You know, if I talk to Cory, are these guys gonna be here? Do they have the staying power? Those are the financial things. Those are actually the easy things to look at. The harder things are actually what you actually highlighted, which are around the platform, cloud, and managed services. Because ultimately, what we're helping our customers deliver is the lowest cost per bit per mile infrastructure, with the highest potential for revenue, lowest customer churn, highest Net Promoter scores.

So it's a very, very different investment decision on the part of our customers, and if you understand the way they look at us, then you'll understand the long-term return on investment that ultimately investment in Calix will yield. So let's, maybe we should start there and go off in whatever direction you wanna go off in. But that's why I would say, invest in us. It's not a short-term investment. There are certainly trades you can make around the stock price as it relates to the intrinsic value of the company, but I think if, if you're gonna trade in the stock, you sort of have to do the work to understand the long-term value, so you understand how to trade around it.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah. And it's not, you know, it's not altogether different from the way networks were designed in the past. I'd say it's... But it is more about software optionality, right? So in the old days, you upgraded hardware with cards, and you bought a platform from a supplier, and you were married to that guy for a long time. And, obviously, you know, Calix is really changing the marketplace, leading the marketplace, and shifting your innovation into the software domain. And it's the same model, it's just moving from hardware to software-

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Well-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

-so.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Well, let's take that analogy for a moment because it's a great-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... point. You know, we all used to call our chassis a platform.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Right.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

They're not.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yep.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

They're a chassis.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yep.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

The reason you know that is every time you change it, it takes you three years to change it.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Your customers then bring it into their lab. By the way, you build it, you make the addition, you add some software, you test it. Oh, you broke something. You fix it, you integrate it, you test it again, and you go through these cycles. Eventually, you re-release it to your customer. The customer then puts it in their lab.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

They test it, because guess what? You've given them stuff in the past that probably had a bug in it or two. They go through their integration cycles, then they decide, "Yes, it's ready for deployment." Then what do they do? They integrate it into their OSS/BSS stack. Five years later, the feature makes it to market.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

That's not a platform. That's a bunch of complex systems being integrated.... What we've actually done is quite literally built a unique OS that's a platform that's separated from the hardware, that we actually iterate on every 91 days.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Our customers get out of the integration business. So get this, when we release new features or new systems, our customers can turn them up in a matter of hours or a couple of days, and be delivering that innovation to their subscribers every 91 days.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

The rate of innovation that our software platform delivers is otherworldly compared to what they used to do, and so now they actually can get out on the innovation front edge. And rather than them being the last to offer a new thing to their subscriber, they're the first.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Changes utterly their stance to their subscribers. So that's just one dimension. We still have systems underneath it, we call them appliances, 'cause that's what they are.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

We don't have a lot of SKUs, so it's a vastly simplified model, but the platform that's been built is at the OS layer, and then everything above it is literally abstracted from everything below it.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

That's pretty analogous to what's happened in the data center, and what we see happening in the cloud, really. I mean-

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

There is an analog, but there's a key difference, and here's the key difference: when you hear hardware abstraction in the data center.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... it's not quite as complete or as sophisticated as what AXOS and EXOS do, and here's why.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Okay.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

In the data center, everything is meshed and redundant.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Right.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

In the subscriber network, nothing is meshed or redundant. It's in and out. It's a point-to-point PON network.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

In the data center, when your fabric, your compute, or your storage go down, there's no impact on what's going on.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Right.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

They wait until the next morning, they print out a list of things that failed, and Cory, who's the technician, goes out there with his cart and replaces the stuff. In the subscriber-facing network, if anything goes down, you have one, 10, 100, 1,000 or more subscribers out.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Right.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

AXOS is actually an always-on operating system, and so it's, it's quite a bit different than the way it's instantiated in the data center, because the operating systems and the software in the data center are single binary. What we've built is actually a multi-binary OS. I won't bore you with the details, but it's a very, very different beast, and there's only one of, one of them in the world. And it's that which everything else is built on top of.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Right, and that AXOS is. It's your core software kernel, so to speak, your platform that you've built-

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Correct

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

... your middleware. You sell it on a license basis, and maintenance on top of that, right?

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Well, to your point, as an example, Verizon has built their entire One Fiber Intelligent Edge Network. It's built on AXOS. And that's how they've gone forward, and it's sole sourced. But as soon as you understand it's that OS that makes the difference-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... it's not like you're dual sourcing boxes. You wouldn't have two operational models that are different.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

They actually literally took advantage of it and put an entirely clean sheet, brand new OSS/BSS on top of it. Here's the other piece that makes it very different: there's no orchestrator, because-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... there's no need. So it's a very, very different model that's enabled them to literally collapse their multiple offerings onto a single consolidated network and rip-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... operational expense out of that network. As you go forward, the percentage of the network offering that is hardware depreciation has continued to go down.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

The percentage of the network cost that is operating expense has continued to go up.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Where do you wanna reduce it? You wanna build a unified workflow, simple network, like AXOS enables you to do, and that's why you see the traction that we have with customers. It's a completely different operating model at the network, and we haven't even started to talk about the cloud and managed services that you can then put on top of it to go at the subscriber offerings.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Well, well, let's go there. Let's talk about from an investor perspective. I think-

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Mm-hmm

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

... very clear from a customer perspective why you want that. And so from an investor perspective, you obviously wanna buy a successful company's stock, but, financially, what does that optionality bring the investor in terms of your ability to sell into that appliance footprint?

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Well, so we're an appliance-based platform, cloud and managed services business, and so your question is, "Well, tell us about the platform, cloud, and managed services value.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

It's extraordinary, and the reason it's extraordinary starts with what our customers are doing with it for their subscribers. They end up with an unparalleled subscriber experience-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... virtually no churn, hugely high NPS scores, very high take rates on the network they've built. Then they have a set of value-added service offerings, which are packaged up for them. They label them themselves. Nobody knows about Calix.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

It's not the subscriber never sees Calix, and we don't wanna be known by subscribers.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

White label to your customers.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

They have a set of literal high-value, high-margin offerings that they just lay on top of their network.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... and sell to their subscribers. So they derive very high margins and incremental revenues-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... over the lowest cost per bit, per mile model with no, no churn, it's a beautiful thing. And when you can do that with your customers, they're willing to share it with you. So we're very focused on helping our customers succeed. When you hear, when you hear the term market share inside of Calix, we're not talking about stuff we do. We're talking about the subscriber share that our customers are taking.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Right.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

What's their market share? That's what we focus on. There's the value, and ultimately, if you follow that through, we end up with a lot of high-margin recurring revenue that ultimately builds intrinsic value ultimately for our, our investors.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah. Great. And where, where are you guys in that journey now? Where would you say you are as a company in... you know, I know telecom is a slow-moving beast. Been in it a long time.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Yeah.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Um-

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Second or third inning, we're learning a lot.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

But there's so much opportunity for expansion in just our existing footprint. This disruption, you know, you said earlier you haven't seen rates of change like this in your career. You're right, and here's why. The shift from formerly horizontal models, wireline, cable, wireless, with an adjunct internet offering...

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

...to a consolidated, converged BSP that provides all services to their subscribers, is a disruption that's going on now. It's in its second decade, and it's still early days. If you combine that disruption, which is really... By the way, you can see it in the market, and here's how you see it. Even though most of the BSPs that are actually building these new models are private-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... you can see it in the public numbers of the service providers that report them. They're losing internet subscribers.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Well, all you gotta do is stop and say, "To whom?" Well, they're losing them to our customers, but they're private, so you don't see it, but you know they're going somewhere. So you're seeing that from a service provider standpoint. But here's the second piece. From a legacy systems provider standpoint, that are in those legacy service providers, the pandemic has done terrible harm to balance sheets.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

There's been a lot of damage done to balance sheets. So, yeah, there's a ton of disruption that we have an opportunity to take our next-generation BSP model to the legacy providers now, and we have a very solid company with a very, you know, frankly, a pristine balance sheet and balance sheet metrics. Customers know that we're not going anywhere, that we're gonna be there for the long haul, that we're innovating on an every 91-day basis.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

That they can turn these things up. So there's a huge opportunity to go across the chasm and lay a new footprint.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

And so with the recent kind of slowdown in adoption and creates more focused sell-in effort from you guys to-

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

For sure

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

... continue to drive software sale?

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

For sure. But, look, every day we get up, job one, job one, without a doubt, is... Look, we have our board dashboards, we have our internal KPIs. We focus on the premises deployments, who's coming onto the network, and then the platform, cloud, and managed services deployments on top of that. So job one.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Job two is, in this time, you better go land new footprint because it's there to land.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yep.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Job three is working with our customers to make sure they're taking advantage of all funding sources. By the way, private equity, BEAD, other government sources. We can't control that, but we can certainly help them. But make sure it's clear, job one, platform, cloud, and managed service expansion. Job two, landing the footprint. Job three, let's make sure our customers are well-positioned for all funding, and that consequently, we might benefit from that as well.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah. Excellent. And, Cory, how does all this translate to the income statement for you guys? You know, revenue stalled out a little bit here, but you guys are still making, I think, great progress on the gross margin line, and do you see some leverage there?

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

Throughout the disruption, what you've seen, including through the pandemic, is on the platform, cloud, and managed services just continuing to grow.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

That, that hasn't stopped. It continues every single day.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yep.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

All our software, cloud managed services are priced on a per-subscriber basis, and so as long as our customers are adding subscribers, you're adding to that product ship.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

In the near term, we've got some choppiness associated with our appliances.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

But even there, you know, that hasn't had an impact on our gross margins. It may change the rate that it grows quarter to quarter-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

... but ultimately, it's up and to the right, and, you know, guidance for the quarter was to be north of 55% this quarter.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah. That's impressive. In a business that historically has not been anywhere near that, outside of your own business. So in terms of KPIs, Carl, what would you point to for investors to kind of monitor your progress?

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Yeah, I mean, I was sharing with you our dashboards internally, right?

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm. Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

We don't share the dashboards internally externally.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

But that's what we look at. To try and help investors understand what's going on without disclosing footprint numbers that competitors might wanna understand-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... there are two things that I look at every shareholder letter, which is RPOs, so the revenue performance obligations. And our RPOs are, you know, software and services. They're not hardware.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

So I have noted with some humor that folks have started reporting RPOs with hardware, and yet, no, that's not RPOs. And then the other is-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Well, backlog

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Sort of orthogonal to that are the platform cloud and managed services deployment by customers.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Right, um-

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Right. And so if you look at those two, you can sort of get a sense for the progress. Look, directionally, they give you a clear indication. On an absolute number basis, you can't just sit there and go, "Okay, well, that means their recurring revenue is blank per quarter.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Our long-term investors typically build their own models internally.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

What they're doing is they're doing a simple algebraic equation. They're guessing at what the margins might be on the appliance side, because you've got a lot of systems companies you can sort of think about.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Right.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

They're guessing, although we've given a little bit of insight into what the margins look like on the software business.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

If you do those two margins, you can start to figure out what the revenue mix might be.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

That's what everybody's doing. And so that, that's what I would point everybody to, and we don't have any planned changes in the near term to that. So, Cory, I don't know, if you want to add to that, feel free, but that's what I would point people to.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Nothing to add, Cory?

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

No, no further add.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Hmm. All right, and on that, on that customer, so we look at that customer count, want to break that up a little bit.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Mm-hmm.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

You know, how would you characterize that count as far as early adopters, people that are just starting to deploy a little bit of it, and customers that are, like, all in, buying it all? I mean, or is it kind of all across the board? I mean, you've got 1,000 customers there.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Yeah.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

How would you spread them across the breadth of adoption? My question.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Yes. I mean, literally spread them across the breadth of adoption, and we're learning. So the adoption focus starts with not adoption of us. It's actually trying to help them get their subscribers to further down the path.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

If you work it from the subscriber and then you work backwards, you're pulling everything else through.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

So we do have some customers that are end-to-end Calix from the network to the premise, and bottom to top from the platforms through the cloud to managed services.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yep.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

And they're driving higher value for their subscribers and their communities, and they are reaping the benefits of it themselves.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

But they are still the pathfinders out in front, and it's a smaller percentage. And then you have folks all the way across that spectrum, which, by the way, is the exciting part of the business, 'cause there's just huge opportunities on those journeys to create a lot more value. But by the way, we're also learning things, because some of those customers that are back here have tried certain things, it hasn't worked, so you're swizzling this or you're working on that-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Sure

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... or there's a different go-to-market, or, "You know what? Package this up separately, or help us get to this." We can go on and on and on. You know, Michael and Cory have made the mistake of allowing me access into the internal system, so I still watch everything.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Sure.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

I'm just telling you, it's a huge kick to watch the rate of learning and evolution inside the company at the face of the subscriber with the customer. It's really cool.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah, when you're at the bleeding edge, trying to do things in a whole new way, I'm sure you gotta, you know, fail a few times and, you know...

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Yeah, but here's what's cool-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Make a counter move.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Right. But here's what's cool compared to our past. In the past, you were doing it to the customer.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Right. Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Now you're doing it with the customer, trying to help them yield a better subscriber experience.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

So it's, you're sort of around on the other side of the table, and when you're a box vendor, you know, you get up every morning having recorded whatever revenue you recorded last quarter, you're starting over again, and you're on this relentless, "Let me see how I can separate my customer from their cash this quarter.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Right.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

This is very different.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Um-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

The customer is more with it.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... you're trying to help them be more successful with their subscribers and their communities. So it's a very collaborative, energizing environment. It's quite different.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah. Awesome. Let's shift gears and talk about BEAD. There's been some progress, at least, on-

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Oh, I'm gonna turn that over to Cory. Go ahead.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

... onwards in the last few weeks, I've been happy to see. I mean, you know, I don't want to rewind everything, but we can talk about just kind of some of the latest updates here. Looks like some states got some approvals, and we're, you know, putting one foot in front of the other at least, and we don't seem to be completely stalled out.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

For sure. Yeah, so, we go back to the beginning of April, that you just, you had one state-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Right

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

... still approved, Louisiana, and we're now up to seven states, plus the District of Columbia.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Yeah.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

That cohort represents $6 billion of the $42 billion, so-

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Yeah

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

... it's on its way, and the importance of that is by the NTIA's form itself, those states have a year to get back to them. So-

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Yeah

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

... you've got a year, so by May of next year, $6 billion of the $42 billion will have been awarded to folks. So that just gets the ball rolling, which is what we've been saying all along-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

that this will begin in 2025, and obviously everybody's kind of looking at that pitch on the ramp.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

I've been kind of consistent in saying, "We don't need all 52 states. That's just gonna-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Right

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

... you know, accelerate things and create more of a, you know, a concern around whether I can now get the supply, and can I get ahead on other people, and so forth.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

So the great news is this is all gonna be limited by labor-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

... permitting.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Definitely.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

Right? So, some of these early access states that get out will probably have a more-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

The market's not gonna grow 100% next year, right?

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

Right.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

This market's not gonna grow 100% next year.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

Right.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

It's just, it's just not. Footprint can't grow that fast.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Oh, oh, by the way, to your point, anything that requires labor takes longer. Anything that requires labor to get in a truck and drive in the outside plant takes longer still.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Only so many months a year you can go do that, yep.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Well, but it just takes longer.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

I mean, if I'm in a data center, I can sit here and swizzle a whole bunch of racks together pretty quickly.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Bust a bunch of guys in and build it.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Right. If I'm in the outside plant, you know, there's a whole different deal. And by the way-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Right

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... if you're in the outside plant in Texas... So let me help you understand, driving across Texas is not a job, it's a career. So whole different deal.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

And in terms of this, on that labor point, the skills required for these guys to do their job and splice fiber and put it in the ground, I mean, there's some big companies out there that do that, like Dycom, right, and a bunch of little guys, too. Are you hearing much from your customers about their concerns about access to that labor at this point yet?

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Sure, and you still hear it.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

All right.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

And by the way, there's a skill required. I can't do it-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... unless you don't want it to work. And so there are clear skill-look, I mean, the state of craftspeople in the United States, that's a whole different discussion. But there's lots of room for more craftspeople, but you don't just turn that knob either. There's time, training, et cetera.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yep.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

And so, look, over time, you'll see more labor come to the fore. But it's still gonna be a market that's lens-shaped.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

It's not gonna do this. It just, there's just no way.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah. So people always ask me, like: "When do you think the government subsidy spending or associated BEAD, what year do you think that peaks?" We talking, like, 2028?

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

You got a dart? You got a mirror?

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Uh-huh.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Throw it over your shoulder and see which... Look, we've been resolute. It's gonna start first quarter of 2025.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

The ramp, the shape of that curve, et cetera, you know, my suspicion is there won't be really a peak year, that it will probably ramp up and then stay flat for a number of years.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... and then tail off. But again, it raises the dais upon which we function. But it, in and of itself, is not the reason you should be investing in Calix. It's that business model that matters. Are we excited about more funds coming in and building fiber deeper and getting more internet subscribers on? Of course.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Of course. That's more subscribers that we can help build a model on top of-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... it's recurring revenue. For us, unlike Calix 1.0 or other box providers, the revenue doesn't end when you ship it, it's actually beginning.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah. Right.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Right? So, cool.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

OLT footprint, customer prem footprint, selling-

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Then recurring revenue. That's right. By the way, so let's go back. Dycom-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Clearfield CommScope-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yep

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... us-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

That's right

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... and then recurring revenue on platform, cloud, and managed services. That's right.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

That's, that's the order of the world.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

That's the order of our world.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

That's right. Yes, sir. And in terms of BEAD, one last question, any updates on, from the small customers on relief? Are they getting any messages from D.C. on, you know, some relief from the heavy-handed regs yet? Any updates there?

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

I'm not aware of any relief at this time.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Okay.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

I'll give you a-

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

We don't know that-

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Yeah, I'll give you a different update.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

I was gonna say-

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Yeah, sorry, Cory, go ahead. Sorry.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

I was gonna say, what is clear, though, is the NTIA is specifically looking for those smaller service providers to step in to do the work.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

We were just at a meeting of about, you know, 10 state broadband offices, hosted by Ready.net.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

It's very clear, right? They're out there soliciting these small customers to step in and provide the work.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

So, anything we can do to help them facilitate, will that ultimately give them some relief from some of the regulations? To be determined.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Yeah, I mean, we're going through territory reviews right now, and I've been listening to the recordings of some of them. What's starting to happen now is that there are more states where folks are showing up, going, "Yeah, okay, we're gonna... yeah, we don't wanna let this funding go to someone who's gonna come in and compete with us. We're gonna go figure out how to compete." To Corey's point-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... it's a state-by-state program. It's not a federal government program.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yep.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

So if you have money in the state, you probably wanna have that money go to people that are based in your state, not necessarily nationwide players. It doesn't mean it won't.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

So there's a lot of reasons why it's probably going to move that direction... but stay tuned. I have not heard-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yep.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

any lessening or loosening of the requirements yet.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

And Cory, this Ready.net you mentioned, this is a consulting firm or something you guys have partnered with to help operators-

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

Yes.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Work with the broadband office?

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

Yeah, so Ready.net is working with the state broadband groups-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yep

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

to help them create the infrastructure for completing the challenge process and the bidding process.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

They're connected at that local level.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

And so we are working with them, and have other areas where we will partner with them on marketing, on go-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

forward services in the future as they go to the next steps.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yep.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

The whole goal is, again, to help enable our customers to make it easier for them to get access to the funds.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

That's correct.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

I wanted to touch on a news item that's come up since your, Brent,

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

That I'm as handsome as you think? Was that... Never mind. Go ahead.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Okay. About just, you know, T-Mobile looking to get into fiber business. I think that was pretty-

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Oh, boy! Yep.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

... head-turning. And you know, the fact that they're forming this JV, they're acquiring this Lumos company. Can you tell us a little about that, about your thoughts? It's clearly a great validation in the whole market opportunity, but can you tell us any specifics about, about Calix and, and how you feel about, Lumos and that deal?

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Yeah, so, we can. Lumos was formed up a few years back, bought some assets-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yep

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... put them together. Funding came from EQT Partners. They built a board of folks that understand the industry. They have a very strong leader and leadership team.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

A couple of years ago, they basically went end to end from the network to the prem with Calix and went bottom to top platform, cloud, and managed services, and they have just been knocking the cover off the ball-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Wow

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... with subscriber adds, not homes passed, subscriber served-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Wow

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

and what they're selling to them. Look, this is an example of what we can enable, but I want to emphasize the team's got to do it. That team's been a standout on just going after it.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Your team or their team?

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

No, their team.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Oh, their team. Their customer team.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Obviously. Oh, yeah.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Look, I mean, you can't push, they got to pull, and they've pulled hard. The customer success teams are there helping them, no doubt. All the marketing, which, I mean, everything we do is there.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yep.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

But they've really gone to market hard and have had tremendous success. The T-Mobile thing sort of came out of left field.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

But if you think it through, T-Mobile's a wireless provider with, you know, a technology. It's not a business model in the future. You've got to get to the subscribers-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... and they've got to find partners to do it.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

1. 2, I think they had an opportunity with Lumos and EQT to basically acquire it, but then reconstitute it and double up on the funding. 'Cause if you follow what happened, they bought it, then they sort of put it back in a joint venture-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... and EQT is putting more money in-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Right

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... to go even, to go even faster. From a general market standpoint, it sends a very clear message as to valuation, which is, if you are building a dumb pipe for a price model, you haven't yet had a liquidity event at any multiple.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

If you're building a subscriber-focused, community-oriented model like Lumos, you actually had a liquidity event at a very high multiple. That's gonna get people to go, "So wait a minute, what are they doing that we're not?" And we're already seeing those conversations. The other piece is, T-Mobile, to me, represents a broader scheme, which is there's gonna be more than one, like T-Mobile, folks that are gonna be interested in gaining access to subscribers but don't want to take on the burden of building the whole infrastructure.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Right.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Stay tuned for how this shapes out.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

No, we should-

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

You don't have to think real, you don't have to think real hard about lowest cost per bit per mile, Verizon's network, and what we've done with AXOS, and what you might do as an infrastructure play. It's, it's fascinating where this might go.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

So I guess I'll leave it at that. It's all good, but it really does reinforce the value of a subscriber experience-centric model and that value.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah. We just have a few minutes left. You know, Cory, let's chat balance sheet a little bit and you guys have been real successful, building up a nice cash position and lots of liquidity. What are your thoughts on, you know, capital allocation here and you know, any thoughts around M&A?

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

Sure. So, we have a share repurchase plan-

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

The idea is that this is programmatic. It is how we are giving cash back to shareholders, very rigorous process that we look at every 91 days with the board.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

We create a trading plan, put that in the marketplace, and just kind of let it go and operate. It's funded by free cash flow, right? So the fact that we generate free cash flow every quarter is that what allows us then to continue to have that program and to maintain it. So yes, it exists. Yes, we'll continue to use it, and it's not a temporary thing. It's something that's built into the way we're looking at our allocating capital.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Okay.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

On the M&A front, when you've built the platform in this disruption, there's nothing to acquire. There's nothing out there like what we've built. So no, there's nothing like a box company that we would go acquire, right?

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Mm-hmm.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

We'll continue to be an organic grower.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Solid. Mm-hmm.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

That said, you know, there could be a piece of technology that we would like to have in our stack that we would then go buy. But most of the time, if possible, we'll partner first.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Yeah. I mean, it's at the very best case, it's a software nugget that's a technology tuck-in-

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

Yeah

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... that you might not even merit seeing in a 10-Q.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

Mm-hmm. Yeah. Got it.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

On the balance sheet, one last item, the balance sheet is what enables us to go through this little bit of a wintry season that everybody's experiencing.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

Yep

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

... and hold our OpEx investments constant, so we can go take new footprint, while everyone else has got real challenges.

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

Yeah.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

We will always covet the balance sheet, balance sheet metrics, and run a clean shop.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Yeah. Great stuff. Well, it's great to have you guys. Just in wrapping up, anything you wanna say in closing up, Carl?

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

I love the way you're dressed.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

You're the best. Excellent, pal, buddy.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Now, very quickly, I would harken back to where you started, which is the reason you invest in us is the reason our customers do, which is over the long term. I would always encourage, frankly, long-term investors to trade around the position, depending upon how the stock runs hot or cold. But if you're thinking about investing in Calix, know that this is something that should create enormous value over the long term, continuously, and that's what we're focused on. So very much appreciate the opportunity, Ryan. Cory, any last words?

Cory Sindelar
CFO, Calix

Nope. Thank you, Ryan. Appreciate the time today.

Carl Russo
Chairman, Calix

Yeah, very much.

Ryan Koontz
Analyst, Needham

Thanks, guys. Always a pleasure. Thanks, Ryan

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