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Goldman Sachs 2024 U.S. Financial Services Conference

Dec 11, 2024

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Okay, good afternoon everybody. Thank you for joining us for our next session. I cannot speak anymore. It's been a long day. Okay, I'd like to welcome the management team from Cboe. With us today are Dave Howson, Global President, and Jill Griebenow, the company's CFO. Cboe remains one of the faster-growing exchanges in the space, powered by its proprietary index options complex, as well as its robust Data and Access suite of solutions. We'll spend time with the team here on the progress Cboe's making this year and how you're thinking about 2025. Welcome both. Happy for you guys to be here this year again.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Thanks for having us.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Great. So why don't we start with a question on some of the strategic priorities, and really looking back at sort of the progress you guys made this year. I remember when Fred took over and he was sitting on the stage with us last year, there was a couple of things that he wanted to accomplish and you as a team wanted to accomplish. You know, a number of things, but more targeted approach to M&A, stabilizing operating margins, shifting capital returns, and allocation and reallocating resources, you know, kinda towards more core competency areas for Cboe, right? So it feels like a lot of that has been accomplished. So talk to us a little bit about what's next, what's on the priority list for 2025.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Yep. Thanks, Alex. You great coverage there of all the key pieces we talked about.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

I read fast, sorry.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yeah, cool. And really what you've seen us doing broadly there is lean into really creating operating efficiency and working out how we lean into our strengths. And as we look across the businesses, we like all of our businesses. We like the cash and spot markets, the FX markets. They've done nicely this year. And of course, the derivatives and the Data and Access Solutions business as well, which, spoiler alert, we've announced is now going to be called Data Vantage. So we've got a new name.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Okay.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Which we can all say incorrectly, including myself, for about a year's time.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

There we go.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

But really, when we look forward, the growth algorithm for us is really the growth businesses are the derivatives business and that Data Vantage, that data business. And then, when you break that down somewhat, you look at the derivatives business. It's three or four key pillars to that growth. It's the growth in retail utilization of options. And that includes, of course, the onboarding, the gradual onboarding of Robinhood. 4% of their users use options today. If you compare that to other retail brokerages out there, you know, it can be up to about 10%. And there's 24 million funded accounts there, a great runway of opportunity for us. Also thinking about what we've been calling the import business in the same vein.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

As well. So bringing that exposure, that need and desire for exposure, and managing that exposure to the U.S. economy. That comes in the form of retail brokers internationally, institutional players internationally, as well as around, you know, Europe and Asia Pacific as we think about the two specific regions. So bringing that import flow. And then finally, it's about exporting our IP and capability and market structure when we think about the European derivatives initiative, which is another longer view, longer burn. And then you think about the data or the Data Vantage business.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

We think about data. Everyone internationally wants access to the U.S. markets, the U.S. equity market. Data there, a real big growth driver for us as we think about Data Vantage into the future, and then as we deploy our technology capabilities, if you think about the strategic review, technology underpins everything we do, and we've been able to redeploy our skill, our horsepower back into the core technology platform, including a variety of access layer improvements in the equities business where we get to build ones and then deploy many around each one of our markets, and we're deploying, for example, Dedicated Cores into the U.K., Europe, and Australia after having a resounding, really solid uptake in the United States.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

I gotcha. I gotcha. Okay. That was very comprehensive and a lot to cover, so let's unpack some of these, some of the areas. I wanted to start with retail. The rise of retail has been kind of a continuous and very powerful theme in trading markets. You mentioned that as well. It feels like after the U.S. election, it got another boost, which you know may continue into 2025. People feel pretty enthusiastic about the state of the markets. How is Cboe positioned to capitalize on this trend? I know you talk about Robinhood and that's you know maybe somewhat of a low-hanging fruit, but what else are you doing to capitalize on retail, and aside from trading, there are other ways you guys could incrementally monetize this, whether again it is data or access or something like that.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Yeah, indeed. We think about retail really in three core strands. It's about access. It's about education. It's about product.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Product marketing. So firstly, on access, you mentioned Robinhood, as I did. That's really about accessing and penetrating more of that user base. That's more new users and new use cases within that. And then when we think about international retail brokers, we've brought on three retail brokers from South Korea, for example, this year. So it's new users in new geographies. So expanding the access to retail brokers and their customers around the world.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

We think about education. It's a lot about joint marketing, joint education with the likes of Robinhood and our other retail brokerage partners around the world. And we're investing in our own education platform, quite heavily to bring that internationally. And we're looking at ways of using new technologies, AI, to bring natural language, local language capabilities to our evergreen, options education content, which is tremendously important as people begin to understand how to utilize options as part of their portfolio management strategies.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Then coupled with that is the marketing of the product and really allowing folks to understand the benefit of a cash-settled European exercise product with, if you're in the U.S., potential 60/40.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yeah.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Tax benefits as well.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Is there a way to frame the addressable market when it comes to non-U.S. retail using some of your proprietary products? I'm assuming you're talking about SPX options largely.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Mm-hmm.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Maybe more. But, just to start with that, if you kinda were to draw a parallel between, what's available and what's happening in the U.S. but expanding outside the U.S., how much more material could that be in terms of the overall contribution of the business?

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Certainly, a solid demand. And it's SPX, it's XSP and to a lesser extent, VIX options for the retail.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Internationally, we're, you know, our key sweet spot of target customers. We've got six top priority countries in Asia Pacific. That's South Korea, Japan, Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan. A variety of levels of sophistication and user base in those countries requiring a bespoke, you know, method of engaging and breaking down those pathway barriers that exist to bringing flow back to the U.S. So, we don't really put out a target addressable market that we're going for there. But certainly, when you look at markets like South Korea and Taiwan, there's an active base of customers, Singapore equally there, that we're really looking to tap into that don't necessarily have access to the core proprietary products complex today.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Gotcha. Okay. Let's talk about some of the products, starting with SPX, an enormous growth driver for you guys over the years, really powered by 0DTE options over the last two years or so. It does look like the rate of growth is starting to moderate for 0DTE to some extent. And, you know, some of that may be the market maker adoption or the broker-dealer adoption that's been, you know, largely mature. But it does sound like you guys still see runway on the retail side of things. So.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Mm-hmm.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Help us understand, like, where is 0DTE in the maturity of its product? What would be sort of the next leg of growth? Would all of that be largely retail, or is there still some kinda institutional demand that you guys could drive into that product?

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Yeah, we certainly see momentum and opportunity in both the retail and the institutional categories there, in particular with the institutional, international institutional participants. When looking at the retail brokerage platform flow that we see coming through, we see anecdotal evidence of customers being more sustainable and actually honing and refining and expanding their strategies they're deploying. So for brokerages where we can see it, we see actually users expanding and growing their engagement with the core complex of products. That's new use cases within that. You mentioned retail. We've mentioned it before. The growth of new users within Robinhood's addressable market and internationally is also a key growth opportunity for us there as we think about that. And you mentioned data and insights from those activities. That's also something we think about as well in the previous question.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

When it comes to institutional, we see market makers coming into the complex that might have specialization outside of options and growing their activity in the complex. We see international institutional customers coming through as well. Institutional growth and adoption takes more time because of the.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Breaking down what we call the pathway barriers, whether that be clearing access or market data.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yep.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Distribution to those customers. That takes a little bit more time. But between the two, we see a really quite a rich mix within the complex, and we see them both, continuing to grow.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Got it. On Robinhood, do you guys have any data from them so far how the contract has been, you know, working, how is it they're adopting it since it was launched only, I guess, a couple of months ago?

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Yeah, it's a month or so ago. It's a slow roll in the Robinhood are rolling it out to their customers gradually.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yep.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

And rolling it out gradually on the legacy platform, so the mobile platform and the legacy desktop.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

I gotcha.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

It will be added to the new Legend platform, which has tremendously rich and diverse functionality.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Within it. That's later on into next year. So it's an early start and a slow roll, but encouraging signs with the index options products we hoped would be utilized.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

We're seeing some flow coming through there, but too early to give proportions or think about, you know, what that.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Okay, and that platform obviously is gonna be a lot more, you know, user-friendly for active traders who are more likely to use this product to begin with.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Absolutely. The cash-settling options.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yeah.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Right in the sweet spot of the user that they're going for.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yeah.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

More interestingly, taking a step back from this movement, it's a new leg of competition for the retail brokers.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Right. Right.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

And so they're gonna be competing on price. Robinhood lowered.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Sure.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Their price for index options.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yep.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

They're gonna be competing on functionality, education, and compelling, you know, providing compelling cases and smoother ability to trade. And that will, just as we see with exchanges or other areas of the financial services market, a continual evolution with the longer-standing players.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yep.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

And so ultimately, we could see that as a longer-term path of creating more active traders, more actively trading because of that functionality.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

I gotcha. Okay. Great. You mentioned XSP, so the smaller SPX contract, also an important factor in the retail story. So let's maybe dig into that a little bit. I think you said that product has grown about 18% in the third quarter. So pretty healthy growth. Where are you seeing the customer uptake in that product? How would you frame the addressable market within that? We've talked in the past about an alternative to SPY options. Is that still the typical kinda use case that you're going after, or there's something else?

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Yeah, there's certainly leading to the mission to bring every investment strategy to every wallet size.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

XSP is that one-tenth size exposure of SPX.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yep.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

We do see retail actually trading SPX only risking, say, $4,000 or $10,000 if they utilize various spread strategies. So it is still possible to access the bigger contract.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

But you're right. The XSP contract we think is really in the sweet spot of that onboarding, the maturation of, say, a Robinhood-style user base. The trends have been good, as you point out. We've been working on the market structure. We've been talking to our liquidity providers about improving the prices on screen so that when you pull up that screen, you see a tighter spread. We've been working on rebate structures and other pricing structures to make it more attractive and more amenable to trade the product. And when you couple that with the potential 60/40 tax benefits, it opens up a whole new set of use cases. And you talked about SPY there. You could override a long-standing SPY position with an XSP.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yep.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

call option and then have no risk of having a capital gains event on your SPY underlying position.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yeah.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Strategies like that become interesting.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yep.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Over this year, we've seen an increase in 0DTE trading as well as we've brought on new customers.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Started the year about 30%, trading on the day of expiration in XSP. Now, coming towards the end of the year, it's around about 40%.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

So all these things coupled together, the product, the users, the customers, and the growth with Robinhood coming together nicely to really have an interesting setup for XSP going into.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

2025.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yeah, and definitely nice compliment to the franchise. Let's hit on the VIX, just shifting gears a little bit. You announced two new strategies, two new products there, one being Variance Futures, and then Options on VIX Futures, which I believe were launched in October. Talk to us a little bit about the uptake so far. What are you hearing from the customer base, what the reception has been, and ultimately, what would you define as a successful outcome for these kinda 12-18 months from now, just to give us some guideposts?

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Yep. Yeah, so quick recap on the products themselves and the intention. These are complementary and additive products around that core S&P 500 index complex. They add new hedging tools to the toolbox, to the overall volatility toolkit that we have there. Variance Futures providing an interesting new exposure with the ability to capture realized volatility throughout time. Whereas you look at the VIX products, that's forward-implied volatility that you're trading through the VIX options and VIX Futures. So really, the Variance Futures, which is the effectively the on-exchange equivalent of a variance swap, allows you to avoid the need for market timing through time and allows you to hold the position and gain the benefit of those fluctuations and realized volatility. Really interesting for the tier two, tier three hedge funds that might not have the capital to trade OTC.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yep.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Really interesting to liquidity providers who want to take part in this market. Whereas if it's offered OTC, there's no place for the liquidity provider to play to provide active transparency and pricing in the product. So lots of interest from the buy side, good interest from the market makers. The waypoints for both of these products are quite similar. One of them would be vendor adoption. We launched these just before the election.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Thanksgiving, Christmas, and the holiday. Sorry, and...

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yep.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

The freeze periods that come with that. And so it's out there. We've only just had one of the clearing brokers add support for Variance Futures, and we're seeing a few hundred contracts a day.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Coming through there. So that product's gonna mature throughout next year into the middle of the year as time goes on. VIX Options on Futures, the value proposition there is to bring VIX optionality to non-securities-based users.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

International users, for example, broadening out the addressable market, the distribution of VIX options, VIX optionality, and then allowing the ability to trade five days in a row, expires five days in a row, to bring that shorter-dated exposure into the complex.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

As these products mature, we think about the market structure as well as we learn from customer feedback. Back on Variance Futures, we're adjusting our LMM schemes, adjusting the block sizes. You need to learn and go with your customers on the journey as you look at exactly how you optimize these products. That's gonna take us through into the new year, but really bullish with the feedback we get from the buy side and the appetite of the liquidity providers to support that incoming flow.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Got it. All right. We'll stay tuned on both of those. Let's talk about pricing for a little bit. You guys obviously run a proprietary suite of products. How are you thinking about your pricing power within those two? It doesn't feel like you've done a whole lot there in the last couple of years. But, you know, every time we see, you know, a couple of years go by and exchanges don't take pricing up on some of the proprietary product, it means it's due there for some level of pricing increase, maybe, maybe not. But.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Mm-hmm.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

How are you thinking about pricing, for both the VIX and the SPX?

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Yeah, we've certainly been very intentional about price increase.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

We're very cognizant of that push-pull effect.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Of pricing that could have on a product. It's not our growth strategy, it's worth saying that for a start.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yep.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Lowering pricing might increase some of the lower-edge activities. Increasing pricing might reduce some of it but result in a greater P&L. Our real focus right now is growing that user base, more users, more use cases, and stability in the pricing at this point is really important there. If you think about the Robinhood rollout, that competition we're gonna get in the retail brokerage space, if we tinker with pricing at this point, it might destabilize some of that ramp-up in the first part of next year. I'm not saying for 10 years, but I'm saying as we think about next year's ramp-up and we think about those international users, that pricing stability is something that's appreciated by customers as we think about it.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Because we think we've got a solid runway to be able to penetrate and we're not out of ideas and we're not out of a runway to help build that ecosystem.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

I gotcha. Okay. Great. Let's shift gears. I wanna talk about maybe some of the more competitive products in the Cboe ecosystem. U.S. equities and options, the multi-listed options business. It looks like the market share kinda continues to slip over the course of the year. Not by a lot, but it, you know, it's been coming down. At the same time, you did talk about bringing in non-U.S. customers into your markets, which should, theoretically at least, improve the market share. What's the disconnect there? And I guess, how are you thinking about the trade-off between market share and pricing? 'Cause there's obviously some flexibility out there as well.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Yeah, definitely. So talk about U.S. equities and multi-listed options as well.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Right. Yep.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Okay. So, the P&L optimization is the goal.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yep.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Market share and RPC are the dials in a blunt.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yep.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Kind of description of what we do every day in those two markets. Starting with U.S. cash equities first, over the year, that proportion of the total market that is trading off exchange, that TRF and the close, has just grown.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yep.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

It's, well, it's been the TRF alone has been over 50%.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

That's right.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

In recent times, so that squeezes the addressable market that we have to play in as an on-exchange.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yep.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

primarily an on-exchange player outside of the BIDS business that we have.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yep.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

In the on-exchange space, we've maintained broadly our share of that addressable market, around about 25%-26% of that addressable remaining market. We did change one of our venues in November this year, the EDG A Equities venue, to a Maker-Taker pricing model from an inverted price model based upon some of our customer feedback. That change has gone well. And then more broadly, as we think about the parameters that we compete upon, it's pricing, the month-to-month pricing changes we make, it's features and functionality, think about our new order types we've got across the exchange landscape there. And then it's technology.

That technology came this year in the form of Dedicated Cores, which was an access layer innovation, which had some really strong uptake from our customer base and allowed them to interact more precisely with our core exchange venue, as well as allowed us to generate new data insights, which we could then provide back to our customers. That technology investment is twofold: one, the direct value, and then the value from follow-on data and insights we can have to bring back to customers, which then allows them to optimize engagement in the core platform. That statement holds true for multi-listed options as well in terms of those technology advancements. Multi-listed options, we've been around about 24%.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yep.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Just a little bit above. It's gonna be a focus for us coming into 2025. We've got some new highs coming on. That technology resource, again, freeing up from those M&A integrations and migrations.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Focusing its minds on the data, those insights, and working with customers to work how to improve the interactions. The early example would be BZX Options in September, I believe it was. This year, we changed the access layer architecture to our price-time options market. That's actually changed quite fundamentally some of the dynamics in the market and allowed customers to be more efficient as how they interact with BZX Options.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

It's that type of thing that we'll be doing more of as we think about rollout, rolling out new capabilities into 2025 to really bring a bigger focus to our competitive position in multi-listed options.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

I gotcha. Great. I wanted to pivot to a couple of newer things you announced recently as well. Securities financing transactions, being one of them. It sounded like you have several firms expected to join the platform over the next couple of months, couple of quarters. I forget exactly the timeframe. But can you talk about just framing what this opportunity could look like? And I know from a regulatory perspective, Basel III Endgame was viewed as a potential tailwind.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Mm-hmm.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

To maybe more platforms and more firms joining the platform to an extent regulation gets rolled back, or Basel III Endgame may not even happen, you know, how does that impact that opportunity set for you guys?

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Yeah. The need for capital efficiency remains. The Basel III Endgame and framework were a catalyst to focus minds.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yep.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

But when you look at pension funds usage, the risk weight, the RWA calculation for those firms and those pools is still 100%. If you clear it, it's 2%.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

So the value proposition holds irrespective of the timing or the forcefulness of the Basel III, Basel IV.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yep.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

piece there. So U.S. banks and European banks alike have the same set of challenges and the need to be more efficient with balance sheet.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Right.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

The size of the opportunity to frame it is there's EUR 3 trillion of lendable assets available in Europe. EUR 200 billion of those are actually on loan now.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Within the scope of the securities financing transactions, the Stock Borrow Loan.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Okay.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Clearing initiative we're putting out there. We've got access to 10,000 ISINs across ETFs and equities, as well as the direct access to the 19 CSDs around Europe.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

So for us, it's a brand new white space opportunity, but in an adjacency where we already have the connectivity.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

So alongside the capital efficiency, you also get the workflow simplicity of having a CCP in the middle rather than five, six, however many different plus co-accounts policies you might have as you're lending out your inventory. Your clearing house brings that single point of simplicity to the workflows as well.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

There's a number of other advantages. Around about nine, so far, last count of early adopters.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Looking to come on board as we go into new year. Same story there. Testing systems need to come through as we go through there. We have regulatory approval, so we're good to go from that perspective.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yep.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

That'll be a ramp-up in the first half of next year.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

What does the economic model to Cboe look like? Is it, you know, clearing fee on a transaction basis? What are those fees if you're gonna help us frame, like, I don't know, $1 billion of notional comes across? Like, what does that?

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Mostly it's clearing fees. We also get, you know, the net interest income from the custody piece as well and any settlement that.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yeah.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

That needs to happen as well. But most of it's from the clearing fees.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Got it. Okay. All right.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Activity levels.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Got it.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Yeah.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

All right. Let's talk about data, Data Vantage.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Data Vantage, yeah.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Data Vantage call now. All right. Just making sure. Okay. So, the target is 7%-10%. You guys will be at a lower end of that this year as we talked about. Maybe unpack kinda the reasons why some of the slippage, not outside of the guidance, but towards the lower end of the guidance. But again, more importantly, what does it mean for 2025? To an extent, there's any sort of pent-up demand that did not come through this year? Are you thinking about next year? Any early thoughts on how that could look like?

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Yeah. It's kinda three core three or four core factors. First one, coming into the year, we had some exits and consolidation in the market. Being a global offer of Data and Access, that, that hit us starting the year. We've talked about some of the sales cycles being longer than expected. That came through throughout the year with some portions of the Data Vantage product set. And then the third piece is really the timing of the index business of those cash, those cash collections, not always coming in, in a s kind of a.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Smooth nature. And then you hit September, where we have a 10% year-over-year growth in September.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

That's really the story for 2024. A number of pricing changes and solid sales in between there to keep us, you know, up towards the bottom end of that 7%-10% guide for the year. When we think about 2025, it's a number of things that we've kinda mentioned already, but really thinking about that sale of data globally. People around the world want access to the U.S. markets either or have access to the U.S. markets and want the exposure there. So global sales of our U.S. data has been key. Each quarter this year, we've reported that 40% of incremental growth in Data Vantage has come from international sales. So we're gonna be leaning into that. That's also cloud sales and deploying more data and insights over the cloud to get to more users.

Data forms a critical part and a part where we remain confident with into 2025. There's the access layer investments we talked about. The build once, deploy many. Dedicated Cores are due to go to the U.K., Europe, and Australia out into next year. There's also, in general, the freeing up of technology resources from those integrations, really coming back to put the horsepower into what's the next access layer innovation rollout for the options market, what's the new instrumentation, the data we can create in terms of the core data, the data insights we can give to our customers, how can we.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Produce them and derive value from them.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

So into next year, thinking closer to the middle of the range or kinda how are you thinking about the magnitude of that improvement as you're thinking about 2025?

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

We'll be talking about ranges and guides in February.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Okay. Fair enough. Fair enough. I figured I'll try it.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Yeah. Good luck.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

So, you know, might not get a better answer on the expenses, which is my next topic, but we'll try there as well. I guess the way I would wanna frame it, you guys have done a really nice job sort of moderating the pace of expense growth and really, you know, pivoting and redirecting investments into areas where you could see the most organic revenue growth, which was obviously a welcome move. All that said, it feels like you're talking about the margin opportunity in the business from more of a margin stability perspective, as opposed to much of a margin improvement perspective. Am I reading that right? So I think about EBITDA margins in the business right now kinda running in a 63-ish% range. The peak was in the high 60s%, maybe even hit like a 70% in one any given quarter.

but is the current range likely where we're gonna live, or there's still an opportunity to get into that high 60s% range?

Jill Griebenow
CFO, Cboe

I think, as you alluded to, we did see an acceleration in expense growth over the past several years. You know, completed nine acquisitions over the course of three years. I think in 2022, our expenses ramped up 22%. Last year, it was another 15%. However, this year, in our most recently issued guidance, we've messaged a range of 6%-8%, which is obviously nearly half of what they increased a year ago. So with that uptick in expenses, you did see compression or actually, degrading of the actual margins. I think what we've messaged, one of the key themes that came out of the strategic review that you hit on earlier was stabilization of the margins. Stabilization of the margins is definitely top of mind for us, as is disciplined expense management.

So, to the extent that we do have incremental expenses, what we're doing is ensuring that they're definitely attached to revenue-generating opportunities. So just to, you know, point to a few of the examples that Dave's already listed today, you know, the Robinhood launch of index options, there's an opportunity there for us. We're investing from a marketing perspective, from an educational perspective. The securities financing transactions initiative that he mentioned, that investment has been ongoing for about 18 months to build that. However, that starts producing revenue already in 2025.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Okay.

Jill Griebenow
CFO, Cboe

In APAC, the opportunity for increased Data and Access sales. So opportunities there to hire local sales resources on the ground in the local language. Is that just a very subtle uptick in expenses? It is. But on the flip side, there's net revenue attached with it. So again, it's a balancing act of really trying to rein in that expense growth, but still investing organically in the business to continue to grow that net revenue longer term. Getting back to your original question as to the margins, you know, 70%, I think, again, this margin stabilization, the, you know, mid-60s%, again, it's just that discipline. It's the it's the balance of continuing to invest in the business to grow that long-term net revenue while, you know, really watching the margins, watching the expenses, ensuring that net revenue is there for years to come.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Okay. All right. Makes sense. Let's talk about one of the other kinda strategic factors you guys discussed in the past, which is acquisitions. It felt like the firm has done a lot over the last five years. So there was clear need for a bit of a pause, go back, re-examine. It feels now that you went through that process, there's been maybe a little bit of a shift in posture, or at least maybe that's how I interpreted it. Maybe that's how investors have interpreted it, that like, "Look, if there's something interesting, we could consider it." So you're kinda like back in the M&A market, maybe to some extent. So maybe help us unpack that. Am I reading that correctly? Are we all getting a little too far ahead of ourselves?

What are kinda your acquisition priorities, or are there acquisitions a priority, I guess, over the next 12-18 months?

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Yeah. For us, we've never said no M&A.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yeah.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

I think it probably depends on the context of the question.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yeah. Yeah.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

And how the listening ear interprets the response. So for us, you're right. We did nine acquisitions in three years, and we've been chewing and digesting them since. And when we acquire, we integrate fully. We bring the asset up to Cboe standards from compliance, technology, and so on, so that after we finish, we can actually benefit from that scaled infrastructure. So those expense increases over the years are all about really priming ourselves to be able to lever out of that with growth.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

When it comes to how we think about M&A and opportunities, they'll be aligned with our strategic initiatives that we've talked about, derivatives, and data and so on that we've talked about as our strategic priorities. Anything to further those strategic initiatives would make sense for us to look at. And everybody walks around with their eyes fully wide open. But anything will, you know, it'll look to deliver long-term value for us as we go through and be really deliberate and intentional as we go through.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Are these more capability deals? So in other words, things that you already have just adding on top of that, or, you would consider also doing something larger, more like a larger consolidation deal? There are many of those, but just kinda thinking about the scope of a transaction if you were to do something.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

It really depends on the case by case and, you know, what's out there, what we look at, and what we think at the time.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Okay. All right. Fair enough. Couple of minutes left here. So let's hit on capital returns. That's been also been a nice, a nice pivot. The pace of share repurchase has improved. The balance sheet is in a great place. What are your sort of capital return priorities, but also give us a bit of a framework that kinda in the let's just pretend there's no deals, right? In absence of any meaningful transaction, what should the payout look like over the next 12 to 18 months?

Jill Griebenow
CFO, Cboe

I think, from that perspective, it's a combination and a balance of a number of different levers from a capital allocation perspective. So, share repurchases, as you mentioned, we messaged in our most recent earnings call that we've already repurchased upwards of 200 million in shares for 2024. Other levers that we look to from the capital allocation perspective are quarterly dividends. So we do have a history of paying the quarterly dividends, and then we have increased it consistently the third quarter, which we did again here in 2024. The return through those two aspects will be balanced against, I think, the organic investment in the business, again, just continuing to invest where it makes sense to drive that long-term net revenue growth, as well as just some, you know, potential dry powder. It's nice. We appreciate the balance sheet flexibility that we have.

So again, from a capital return perspective, it will be a combination, continue to be opportunistic from a share repurchase perspective, and continuing on the track for the dividend as well.

Alex Kramm
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Great. Okay. Well, look at that. We're right at time. Thank you both. Dave, Jill, thank you for being here. Appreciate you.

Dave Howson
Global President, Cboe

Thanks, Alex.

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