Day, and welcome to the Community Financial System, Inc.'s Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note that this event is being recorded and discussion may contain forward-looking statements within the provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that are based on current expectations, estimates, and projections about the industry, markets, and economic environment in which the company operates. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed.
Refer to the company's SEC filings, including the risk factors section for more details. Discussion may also include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in the company's earnings release. I would now like to turn the conference over to Dimitar Karaivanov, President and CEO. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Chloe. Good morning. Thank you for joining us today. Our company performed very well in the third quarter. As expected, our results accelerated with operating diluted earnings per share, increasing 16.5% year-over-year and 9.5% quarter-over-quarter, representing our sixth consecutive quarter of record results. Record revenues and profitability in banking, record revenues and profitability in insurance services, record revenues and profitability in wealth management services. Solid revenue performance in Employee Benefit Services, which was challenged by elevated expenses due to startup legal costs associated with a number of new fund launches in our collective investment trust business. Couple of items of note. Wealth Management revenue was up 41% year-over-year, and pre-tax earnings were up 42%, driven by both very strong organic performance and the addition of ClearPoint.
We remain very excited about the opportunities ClearPoint is providing us, and we are already seeing tangible client cross-service opportunities with banking. Insurance services revenue was up 8.9% year-over-year while keeping expenses basically flat, resulting in pre-tax earnings growth of 41%. As previously mentioned, the M&A activity is really strong and these results do not yet incorporate the more sizable opportunities we're working on this quarter should they come to fruition. Employee Benefit Services revenue was up 5.6% year-over-year, while pre-tax earnings were down 3.5%, predominantly due to the aforementioned legal expenses. Banking had a very strong quarter with both margin expansion and organic growth. Commercial and consumer lending were both strong. Deposits experienced typical seasonal fluctuations while liquidity and credit remained a source of strength.
I would expect some seasonal slowdown in consumer lending in Q4, plus the impact on demand of higher rates in mortgage and auto lending. The commercial pipeline remains strong, but we also expect some larger payoffs, so I wouldn't extrapolate from Q3. As noted, we pulled forward our December securities maturities as we took advantage of the shape of the curve and our own liquidity needs and produced a positive net present value transaction. In addition, we believe that this illustrates the positive dynamics embedded in our balance sheet with over $600 million of securities maturities coming due in 2027. I will now pass it to Marya for more details.
Thank you, Dimitar, and good morning all. As Dimitar noted, the company's operating performance accelerated in the third quarter. GAAP earnings per share of $1.16 increased $0.12 or 11.5% from the third quarter of the prior year and was consistent with linked second quarter results, including the loss on sales of investment securities recognized in the third quarter in connection with our decision to pull forward our December investment security maturities. Operating earnings per share and operating pre-tax pre-provision net revenue per share were record quarterly results for the company. Operating earnings per share were $1.27 in the third quarter as compared to $1.09 one year prior and $1.16 in the linked second quarter. Third quarter operating PPNR per share of $1.77 increased $0.21 from one year prior and increased $0.15 on a linked quarter basis.
These record operating results were driven by a new quarterly high for net interest income and operating noninterest revenues. The company's net interest income was $143.5 million in the third quarter. This represents a $4.4 million or 3.2% increase over the linked second quarter and a $15.4 million or 12% improvement over the third quarter of 2025 and marks the tenth consecutive quarter of net interest income expansion. The company's fully tax-equivalent net interest margin increased 7 basis points from 3.49% in the linked second quarter to 3.56% in the third quarter, reflective of higher interest-earning asset yields and lower funding costs. The increases in net interest income and net interest margin included the accretive impact of the paydown of higher cost overnight borrowings using proceeds from the August 3rd sale of $296.8 million of lower yielding U.S. Treasury securities.
During the quarter, the company's cost of funds was 1.16%, a decrease of 2 basis points from the prior quarter, primarily driven by lower deposit costs. Operating noninterest revenues increased $8 million, or 10.2%, compared to the prior year's third quarter and increased $7.4 million, or 9.3%, from the linked second quarter. The quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year increases in operating noninterest revenues was reflective of increases in employee benefit services, wealth management services, insurance services, and banking noninterest revenues. Our recent acquisition of ClearPoint Trust contributed $2.1 million of noninterest revenues during the third quarter and $2.9 million year-to-date. Operating noninterest revenues represented 38% of total operating revenues during the third quarter, a metric that continuously emphasizes the diversification of our businesses. The company recorded a $5.6 million provision for credit losses during the third quarter.
This was consistent with the prior year's third quarter and compares to $4.6 million in the linked second quarter. During the third quarter, the company recorded $141 million in total noninterest expenses, an increase of $3.3 million or 2.4% from the linked second quarter, and an increase of $12.7 million or 9.9% from the prior year's third quarter. The increase from the linked second quarter was due in part to a $1.5 million increase in salaries and employee benefits, driven by one additional payroll day and incremental expenses associated with ClearPoint, as well as a one-time $0.8 million consulting expense related to the renegotiation of a debit card branding contract.
$7.4 million of the increase in total noninterest expenses from the third quarter of 2025 was attributed to salaries and employee benefits, primarily due to the incremental costs associated with acquisitions completed between the periods, higher performance-based incentive compensation, and medical costs along with the impact of annual merit-based increases. Occupancy and equipment expenses increased $2.6 million from the prior year's third quarter, driven by incremental costs associated with the opening of seven de novo branches and three regional headquarters over the last 12 months, along with the seven branches acquired from Santander in the prior year's fourth quarter. Excluding operating expenses related to acquisitions completed in the last 12 months, year-to-date operating noninterest expenses increased $18.7 million or 5.1% from the same prior year period. Ending loans increased $235.2 million or 2.1% during the third quarter and increased $767.8 million or 7.1% from one year prior.
The increases reflected organic growth in the overall business and consumer lending portfolios. The company's ending total deposits increased $808.3 million or 5.7% from one year prior and increased $154.7 million or 1.1% from June 30th, 2026. The increase in total deposits during the third quarter was primarily reflective of seasonal inflows of municipal deposits in September. The increase in total deposits over the past 12 months included $543.7 million of deposits assumed from the Santander branch acquisition and $120.1 million of deposits assumed from the ClearPoint acquisition. Moving on to asset quality. The non-performing loans ratio increased 2 basis points, and the loans 30- 89 days delinquent ratio increased 9 basis points from last quarter, but remained strong compared to the industry.
The net charge-off ratio increased 6 basis points from the linked second quarter due to $2.7 million of charge-offs recognized in the third quarter of 2026 on two individually assessed business lending relationships for which specific allowance allocations had previously been established. The company's allowance for credit losses was $92 million or 80 basis points of total loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter, an increase of $0.3 million during the quarter. The allowance for credit losses at the end of the third quarter represented approximately 7x the company's trailing 12-month net charge-off. Looking forward, we believe the company's diversified revenue profile, strong liquidity, and historically good asset quality provide a solid foundation for continued earnings growth. With that, I would like to provide an update to our expectations for full year 2026 as we enter into the fourth quarter.
We continue to expect 3%-4% growth in deposit balances, 6%-7% growth in noninterest revenues, and an effective tax rate between 23% and 24%. As Dimitar noted, we expect loan growth to moderate in the fourth quarter, driven by some seasonal slowdown in consumer lending as well as some larger commercial loan payoffs. As a result, we now expect full year 2026 loan growth of 5%-5.5%. We expect the full year 2026 provision for credit losses to be in the range of $22 million-$25 million. Factoring in the accretive impact of the August 3rd sale of $296.8 million of lower yielding U.S. Treasury securities, we now expect 11%-11.5% growth in net interest income and for net interest margin to exit 2026 in the mid to high 3.5% range.
Near term margin pressure is possible if higher market rates dampen loan demand and pressure deposit rates. Core noninterest expenses are expected to be in the range of $553 million-$557 million, or an increase of 7%-8% from 2025. This includes approximately $8 million-$9 million of incremental expenses associated with the branches acquired from Santander and approximately $4 million-$5 million of incremental expenses associated with ClearPoint, including non-operating intangible asset amortization and the impact of certain one-time items. These estimates do not include the impact of pending or future acquisitions. That concludes my prepared earnings comments, and Dimitar and I will now take questions. Chloe, I will now turn it back to you to open the line. Thank you.
Thank you. We will now begin the question- and- answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question today comes from Steve Moss with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Maybe start off on loans here. To start off on loans here, just curious, I hear you on moderation in auto and mortgage. Just curious with regard to how to think about the commercial loan pipeline and what you are seeing for strength or weakness there, just given larger payoffs.
Yeah. Thanks, Steve. The pipeline is strong. It is pretty comparable to where it was last quarter, which means that it is close to its [high marks]. Activity is solid. Just in terms of origination, there is really nothing to be concerned about. We just know that we have got a couple of larger payoffs, which is not the worst thing that can happen to a loan. So we are going to absorb those and we are going to replace them in the fourth quarter. Depending on timing, depending on closings, we feel that the range that we provided is the operating range.
Yeah. Also just curious, what are you guys seeing for loan pricing these days and competition in the market?
Yeah. So I think in the last couple of months, our blended originations have been right around 6.6%, and this is kind of across all portfolios. We talked about earlier this year that the pricing in auto was just frankly silly, and we did not participate as much. It has gotten a little bit better. It is not exactly where we want it to be, but it is a little bit better. So we are not probably going to see much growth in that side of the house. Mortgages are certainly you are seeing things in high 7s and even [inaudible ] on mortgage products. That has an impact on demand. We have seen that. I think it is across the board. I am confident we are going to do better than most other folks. We are a very purchase-focused shop, and we have multiple products and solutions for folks.
Ultimately, the payment does go up as rates go up. So that will be quieter than expected. Certainly, the pipeline is lower than it was kind of at the end of the second quarter, and it is not also the best season for mortgages. On the commercial side, I think trending kind of in the high 6s. We have had to reintroduce the number seven in certain situations. It is competitive, but we feel like we have got a very nice broad footprint and multiple products to be successful and to originate at a good pace.
Okay, great. Appreciate all that color there. Maybe just on the fee-based businesses, Dimitar, you hinted at the potential acquisitions. Just kind of curious, is there any particular line of business you guys are maybe more focused on at the moment for acquisitions? Any color you could shed there?
Yeah. Our acquisition pipeline is robust as it relates to insurance in particular, and we've talked about this a little bit in the prior calls. This year, while the organic growth has been challenged for multiple reasons, we've all seen some kind of sanity return in terms of pricing on the M&A side. We've made up some ground year-to-date. We were down first quarter almost 10% year-over-year. We narrowed it down to 6.5%. Now we're kind of in the low 3% year-over-year, and we think we've got good opportunities to continue both on the M&A side and the organic side in the fourth quarter and narrow that gap. I mentioned last quarter that if everything that we're working on transpires, we're going to be very well positioned for 2027 on the insurance side.
Knock on wood, I think we're still on very good track there for robust growth in 2027.
Great. Dimitar, I appreciate all that color there, and I'll step back in the queue here. Nice quarter.
Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question comes from David Konrad with KBW. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Nice quarter. A lot to talk about the balance sheet and maybe embedded in your NIM guide for the fourth quarter. It looks like on an average basis, you brought cash down, which may have helped the funding costs, but now post security sales cash is pretty elevated versus last quarter. I guess the first question is: what do you think the use of cash will be in the fourth quarter? Then maybe also, what do you anticipate the deposit beta being?
Morning, David. I think what you're seeing on the balance sheet as it relates to the cash position is really more driven by the seasonality that we have in terms of predominantly the municipal side of our deposit base. There's some seasonality clearly also in the general deposit base as people spend money for vacations during the third quarter. Usually in the third quarter, we see some of those personal deposits flow out and certainly the municipal deposits flow out in the third quarter, and then they come back at the end of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter as people are making their payments across our footprint. That's really what's driven that cash position. We talked last call that we expected to be in a higher wholesale borrowing position.
That didn't transpire during the quarter, to your point, because we sold off some of our securities maturities. We funded that position and growth during the quarter through our securities portfolio. Then in terms of beta, David, really hard to tell.
Yeah.
It is very early. I don't know if we're going to have more rate hikes. Is this going to be one and done? Is it going to be a couple? When they're going to happen. I think just in terms of how we've been approaching it throughout the year, you can see we have driven costs down as we've optimized volume versus rate. On the deposit side, we certainly have a lot of strength in our liquidity position to allow us to do that. We have reengaged a little bit on some of the CDs this quarter, so that might push the numbers up a little bit. We'll see. We're by far not the most aggressive person in that market, but it's higher than before. At the same time, on the core accounts, we haven't really touched any rates.
Very hard to tell how it's going to shake out during this quarter.
Okay, then second question with going into next year with the $600 million of cash flows off the bond book. Would you more like to optimize that in funding loan growth and maybe further reducing borrowings? I guess remind me where you would prefer securities earning assets be as a target.
Yeah, I think if you just look at what our balance sheet needs are, we would probably target to have securities to assets closer to high teens to 20%, as opposed to where they are today. As you can do the math, that's a lot of securities currently on the balance sheet that will be used in much more productive ways going forward. As it relates to the maturities in 2027, we have about $150 million of borrowings that are going to mature as well in the middle of the year. So that would be a use for some of those cash flows, certainly loan growth. Just to provide a little bit more color on how we think about what we did this quarter versus opportunities going forward in terms of accelerating some of those maturities.
It has to be a positive present value transaction for us, right? So if you think about what we did in August, we had five months left on those treasuries until they mature. In other words, can we cash flows sooner than the $3 million loss, and the math just worked, and it actually got even better as rates went up. So we think that the improvement period is much tighter than five months of maturity. So if we have similar opportunities in 2027, we're certainly going to keep an open eye towards those to fund growth, and maybe not have to be as active on some of the more pricey deposit side.
Perfect. Thank you.
Welcome.
The next question comes from Manuel Navas with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good morning. You have deposits coming from ClearPoint, Santander over the year. You had some seasonality this quarter. How are the de novo branches doing? Can we just have an update there and what type of costs are coming in from there?
Pardon me, ladies and gentlemen. It appears we have lost the connection to our speaker line. Please stand by while we reconnect. Thank you. Pardon me. I have rejoined our speakers. You may begin again.
Okay. Thank you, Chloe. Apologies everybody, we got disconnected somehow. Manuel, we were just in the midst of your question, so sorry for that.
Oh, sorry. I was kind of asking for an update on the de novo branches. It seemed a lot of the year-over-year deposit growth was Santander and ClearPoint. Just kind of wanted to zero in on how the de novo branches are doing. What's kind of the deposit costs there? Any kind of update there?
Yeah. On the de novo branches, as of basically yesterday, we sit at roughly $175 million in deposits in those. We're very encouraged. We've mentioned previously that our goal for the year was to get to $200 million, and I think we're going to have a pretty good shot at being somewhere around there. The majority of the deposits in those branches have been, and continue to be, and likely will be for a little bit, commercially focused. I don't have the exact number, Manuel, on cost, but you can imagine that some of those are higher cost than the traditional retail. The retail is going to build over time. But more importantly, as we look at our aggregate deposit costs, you've seen those have continued to come down.
That's great. You gave a little bit of color that the insurance business is catching up. You have some M&A possibilities there, and all kind of drive to potentially a better outlook for next year in insurance. Can you just talk through Employee Benefit Services and Wealth Management into next year as well?
Yeah. I'll start with Wealth Management. We have a couple of things going on there. On the organic side, we have tailwinds from just market values. That's been positive and that continues to help. At the same time, we're very focused on new advisory sales in the business. In the past three years, and I'm including this year kind of as a projection, we've been running somewhere between $750 million and $1 billion of new advisory sales in the business. That's a strong tailwind kind of purely organically. Then you have ClearPoint, which this year is only going to impact us for basically kind of two quarters and a month, and next year we're going to have the benefit of that for the full year. And certainly they're doing better than we expected them to do as well.
I expect that next year in Wealth Management, assuming no change in market values, which is a very big assumption and likely incorrect, because they're going to go up or they're going to go down, we're going to have a robust double-digit growth in Wealth Management in 2027. As it relates to Employee Benefit Services, recalling that business roughly half of the exposure is to market as well, and half of it is tied to basically a number of participants that we take care of across the country. We're just about at 1 million of those folks that we take care of across the country. And that number for us grows somewhere in the low single digits, somewhere 3%-4%.
If you kind of add the market performance on the other half of the business, you get to a blended rate that we expect every year to be kind of in the high single digits, somewhere around 7% for planning purposes for 2027.
I really appreciate that. Shifting gears for a moment, what's roughly the average price on the share repurchase, and where does that kind of fit in with capital deployment with the fee businesses that you're looking at? Any thoughts on bank M&A and of course, kind of the pace of the buyback?
Sure. We've been, I think this year, this past quarter as well, our average price has been in the low 60s, kind of right around where we are today. We're a very profitable company. We generate a lot of capital. We don't really have a predetermined pace of buybacks. It is opportunistic. It is clearly dependent on the price. It is dependent on what other priorities we have. Our number one priority is always organic growth, so we have to fund that. In the bank, that means that we're funding balance sheet growth. So there is a, for every dollar you make in the bank, roughly half of it stays on the balance sheet in equity to support the growth. In the other businesses, really, it's through the P&L. So you'll see certain quarters there's going to be a little bit more movement.
But that is our capital deployment on the expense side is really invested through the P&L in the non-banking businesses. That is always priority number one. Priority number two is inorganic growth. We are, I would call, an active acquirer across our businesses. In the past three years, we have completed roughly 25 acquisitions. That is a lot. We know how to do these things. They vary from a book of business to an acqui-hire to a slightly larger practice to the ClearPoints and the Santanders of the world. That will always be a tool in our toolkit, and I expect that will remain to be active. We have been able to do all of that, all those things, organic growth, acquisitions, and buy back shares and continue to grow our capital base along the way. So you can expect more of the same going forward.
And as it relates to the latter part of your question on bank M&A, I would say it is a little bit quiet right now. There is not a ton of great opportunities to really spend time on. We have a very targeted box of things that make sense for us, and that really does not include the majority of things that are out there.
I appreciate the commentary. I will step back into the queue.
The next question comes from Matthew Breese with Stephens Inc. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning.
Morning, Matthew.
Maybe just give us an update. Looking for an update on kind of the broader strategic initiatives tied to taking market share in some of the denser upstate New York markets and Pennsylvania. Where are you doing well versus lagging and curious around any I'll leave it there. Curious where you're doing well versus lagging.
Yeah. Fortunately, I feel like we're doing really well across the board. If you just step back and think about some of our most recent kind of entries, I would count broader New England as one of those. Southern New Hampshire and kind of northern Massachusetts type market, where I think we mentioned in the past that we've been much more engaged. Certainly, we started de novo in Bedford. We added some folks to the team last year from some of the M&A disruption. That part of the geography for us has done really well this year already. So that's been really encouraging and the feedback from client visits there just continues to emphasize to me that there is a really good opportunity set for us and our ability to compete in that part of our footprint. Lehigh Valley we've been in for a while.
Clearly with the acquisition of the Santander branches, we were able to take it up a notch in terms of our ability to recruit and establish leadership in the area, and we just did that. In the third quarter we found the leader we've been looking for in the Lehigh Valley. We are off to a pretty good start there and kind of adding to the existing commercial team. Really kind of looking forward to what that's going to bring to us in the next few quarters as well. Really well received by customers down there and our reputation is growing by the day. That is really not to take away from what's happening in our kind of more established markets in upstate. We've had a pretty good outcome year-to-date in Buffalo. We are doing okay in Rochester. We are doing quite well in Syracuse.
We are doing fine in Albany. I am just encouraged. Certainly in Vermont we've reengaged as well and kind of continue to have a leading market share there. I am just encouraged by the execution across the footprint. I am also encouraged by the ability for us to have a very large funnel of things that we are working on and seeing. What that allows us to do is if we need to allocate capital more actively and say, "Hey, the pricing in this part of our footprint is not as favorable this quarter. We are going to basically deploy more capital in another part of the footprint." That's really powerful tool for us right now.
Great. Marya, just on the securities sale, I guess one thing I was a little bit surprised by was just that it looks like investment yields are actually down a little bit quarter-to-quarter. Maybe help me better understand that. I would have thought given the sale of some of the lower yielding stuff that goes higher and if it's a timing difference, maybe help me out with where you expect things to shake out over the next couple quarters.
Sure. Yeah. I think it probably is a little bit of a timing difference based on the date that the sale was executed. In general, this is, as we've mentioned, has been a very accretive transaction for us. We are really happy that NIM expanded 7 basis points last quarter. Three of those basis points are attributed to the securities sale. Then obviously loan yields and deposit costs. We also just to put a fine point on this, did not receive an FRB or FHLB dividend in Q3, and we will in Q4. As we look forward, we expect that to smooth out and Dimitar already went into some greater detail on what's going to happen in 2027 with the $600 million. That's obviously going to have also a positive benefit on AOCI.
Really for us, I believe to your specific question, it was more of a timing situation as it was August 3rd and the way that when we calculate the portfolio and look at things going forward. Given the positive state of the portfolio, the rate environment, and again, the two dividends that we will see, we will continue for Q4 to see an expansion of 1-3 basis points in NIM, and then, as we mentioned in the script for guidance, exit 2026 mid to high 3.5% for the company itself.
Okay. Then Dimitar, one big picture question for you. Increasingly, we've been fielding questions around risks to deposit bases like yours tied to agentic AI, products like Muse that came out and just the ability to move dollars around much more efficiently. I'm just curious how you'd respond to that, if you think a franchise like yours is more or less at risk and perhaps why. I'll leave it there. Thank you.
Sure. Thanks, Matt. Great question and it's kind of like the Yogi Berra thing that predictions are very difficult, especially about the future. But the way I would really think about it as it relates to our company is ultimately Muse, which is a terrific technology. It's actually been available for a little bit in different ways. This is just much more consumer-friendly, I would call it that way. What it does is it removes friction in the process, and that's part of the equation. The other part of the equation is why do people bank where they bank? No matter what survey you kind of look at, convenience is an important piece which also has to do with friction, but also with having something tangible around you. So branches actually show up quite high on most consumer surveys for a reason where people bank.
Then trust is a very large piece of it as well because our financial wellbeing is right up there in the top five behind health and family for everybody, right? So trust is extremely important as it relates to finances. The challenge with just purely agentic solutions is that there is no responsibility attached to that trust. What I mean by that is you may trust Meta, let's say in an extreme example. However, if Muse does something that you didn't ask it to do, and the power of Muse is really being able to practically do things that you didn't even ask it to do. But if it does something that you didn't ask it to do, or if it makes a mistake, you have no recourse against anything. In other words, there's no one to complain to. There's no one who can fix anything for you.
You're going to get a beautiful response that says, "You're right to push back. I messed up," and that's about it. There's no accountability. I think that's going to be a challenge for trust. As it relates to our company in particular, I think the question is going to be how much of the reason that people bank with us or any other institution, how much value are they placing on those attributes of convenience and trust and accountability and responsibility versus the friction that's embedded in doing business with us versus Muse? I keep telling our folks our business is a friction, right? Nobody wants a mortgage. They want a home. The 40 days it takes us to give them a mortgage is a friction in the way. When we tell a commercial borrower that we're good for X, they're expecting their money tomorrow.
They're not expecting their money in 60 days. We need to continue to work on the equation of providing that value versus the friction and removing as much friction as we can so that we can earn our place. The operating side of the balances is the key to all of this because if you think about where you leave your money, the money that we compete for is the operating accounts. It is not the investment parts. That game has been going on for a long time on the investment side. If you look at the fastest growing deposits, the fastest deposit growers in the country in the past year, they were not any banks. They were the Morgan Stanleys of the world. They were the Goldmans of the world. It is those investment dollars. That game has been going on.
I don't know that Muse is going to change that dramatically for us because we don't have a lot of those monies. The operating accounts is where we deliver the value and the convenience. If you look at the size of our average account at $12,000, those are truly operating money. Those are not investment dollars. How much is it worth to a customer to optimize a couple of hundred bucks of that versus the convenience and the trust that comes with everything else that we provide?
Excellent. I appreciate that. I'll leave it there.
The next question comes from Eric Bedell with Bloomberg Intelligence. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I was just wondering if you could give us an update on how much of the commercial loan pipeline is related to the Micron plants. I also saw there was news this morning about a second chip factory being potentially built in Central N.Y. as well.
Yeah. Morning, Eric. As it relates to directly attributable pipeline to Micron, I would say it's a very small percentage. What we are seeing, however, is the increase in business from the second and third derivative suppliers, really more like the third derivative suppliers or folks that are doing work around the sites, as it relates to warehousing, as it relates to even just getting the rolls down. So we have a number of those customers, and they're not necessarily just in the bank. A number of them that are actively engaged are insurance and benefits customers whose business is growing as a result of that. But this is all in preparation. We are starting to see more discussions from Tier 2 and Tier 1 suppliers looking at operations here locally.
If you're a Tier 1 supplier, you probably already have a very well-established relationship with a banking institution, and you're not necessarily likely to bank locally for that. But they need to hire the Tier 3s and the Tier 4s locally to construction companies. We're seeing some of that. Architectural engineering firms, we're seeing some of that. But in terms of percent, is it driving our business at this point in time? Not yet. With that said, I think there's going to be 4,000 workers here on site pretty soon, and that has its cascading impact, right? They need to go to lunch. They need housing. They need medical care. They need insurance. They need all of it. So that's where we're going to start seeing it, is as people really come on site.
Great. Thank you. I am just kind of curious on expenses from here. Should we expect larger than the mid-single digit range into next year? Or how is the best way to think about your approach on more de novo expansion? Anything just along those lines would be great.
Yeah. Generally, our approach on expenses is lower. Just lower is our goal. If you take out acquisitions, as Marya mentioned, we are right around 5% this year, which was our goal on our scorecard. I think going forward, again, excluding acquisitions, I would like to be even a little bit lower than that in terms of expense growth. Again, a lot of what we are doing is investments in the future. It has been not just branches and real estate, but technology, and just the infrastructure for us to scale to really operate at a much bigger scale than currently we are. But that 4%-5% on an excluding acquisitions on an organic basis is a range that is probably going to be on our scorecard for 2027.
Great. Thank you very much.
Welcome.
The next question comes from Daniel Cardenas with Brean Capital. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everybody. Just a quick follow-up question to Eric's question. It sounds like on the lending side, the semiconductor business really hasn't been providing much loan growth as of yet. The expectations are that it's going to pick up. How do you think the pickup in that business is going to impact your deposit growth on a go-forward basis?
Yeah. Great question, Daniel, and we expect that it's going to be on both sides. If you look at the Syracuse market and if you just pull up the results from the 2026 FDIC survey, you're going to see that the market has grown a little bit, but our market share has grown meaningfully. In the past, I think three years, we have gone from a 7% market share to over 9% market share. I expect that not only the market is going to grow faster than it has been, but that we're going to continue to have opportunities to deepen our market share because of the level of activity that we have, and just the way how we do business. It will be helpful. Again, very hard to speculate. We've looked at historical precedents in Saratoga County and in other places around the country.
In some places, the impact is hard to see. In Saratoga County, certainly it was deposits grew meaningfully faster than the rest of upstate for the period between 2010 and 2020, where most of that activity happened. Since then have been at the same pace as the rest of upstate. Hard to tell. It should be a positive tailwind. I still think we're going to get most of our growth from market share gains that we're going to have versus the overall market.
Great. Thank you.
Welcome.
This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Dimitar Karaivanov for any closing remarks.
Thank you everybody for joining us, and we look forward to speaking with you again in January.
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.