Good morning, everyone. Great to see you all. When we were last together for Analyst Day two years ago, I was President and Chief Operating Officer, and it's great to be back together today, to be able to have many of you in the room this time with us, and now to be Chair and CEO of Cummins. This is my 25th year with Cummins, and I would have never imagined growing up in Columbus, Indiana, where Cummins is headquartered, or when I started my career at Cummins, that I would be CEO of this amazing company.
I'm honored and incredibly motivated by the role that Cummins plays in powering some of the world's most demanding and economically vital applications, the vision and strategy we have to evolve the company as our industry evolves, and to continue to grow and deliver prosperity to all of our stakeholders as we do that. So we look forward to sharing with you today the progress that we've made since we were last together, and what you can expect from Cummins and from me as CEO between now and 2030. There's three things that I think will become clear this morning. First, our Destination Zero strategy is the right strategy, and Cummins is well positioned to continue to grow regardless of the pace of the energy transition. Second, we have continued to strengthen our position, deliver on our strategy and our commitments.
And third, we are raising the financial expectations for the company from what we shared with you in our last Analyst Day. We first introduced our Destination Zero strategy two years ago, and it continues to be clear that this is the right strategy for our customers, for the environment, and to continue to grow Cummins. As a reminder, our Destination Zero strategy is a multi-solution strategy that takes our entire business, continuing to advance engine-based solutions, while also investing to bring to market and advance zero emissions-based solutions through our Accelera by Cummins business. This strategy ensures we can meet our customers' needs today and as they evolve through the energy transition, and enable them to do the real work and run the businesses that are critically important.
It also delivers real-world environmental improvements today and in the future, and it enables us to grow Cummins for all of you. We're well positioned with this strategy to succeed. We have a wide range of innovative solutions and a unique understanding of our customers' power needs and how they use those power solutions. We've continued to build strong partners, partnerships, strengthen some of the long-standing partnerships that we've had and create new ones. We also have a strong financial position that allows us to invest in the right solutions at the right time, and our customers know that Cummins is gonna be there to support their needs in the future.
And lastly, is our incredible workforce that's now more than 70,000 strong, and the unique way that Cummins invests in building the capability of our people and strong leaders that enable us to deliver on this strategy. So two years ago, we told you that the transition would be long and messy, and that truly is the case. Those key factors that I said would shape how the transition occurred, the availability of charging and alternate fuel infrastructure, the economics of these new technologies, the ability for them to meet our customers' different application needs, as well as regulation and incentives that help to drive adoption and the scale-out, are evolving and generally evolving slower than what we anticipated two years ago. So what does this look like?
Between now and 2030, we continue to believe that we'll invest significantly in engine-based solutions and then in a targeted way in the zero emissions technologies for applications where they're beginning to make sense. You'll see that the infrastructure will build out, and this is a real issue. So in conversations that I have with our customers, the infrastructure challenges, the economic realities, the application realities are often at the forefront, but it will advance. We've seen advancements and incentives, such as through the Inflation Reduction Act, that are helping to start drive adoption and make these technologies more viable. Between 2030 and 2040, we'll see a range of different solutions existing based on how regulation and infrastructure evolves.
During this time period, Cummins' position in a variety of different markets and regions will allow us to build scale, and also be sure that we can service and support our customers' evolving needs. And then as we get into the 2040 to 2050 timeframe, we'll see more broad adoption of zero emission solutions as we work to reach that ultimate destination of zero, a broad infrastructure available to support them, and also a robust supply chain behind that. And I wanna remind you that even in this final state for our applications, commercial and industrial, we expect a variety of different solutions will be required. I'm pleased to share that based on our strengthening position and the opportunities that we see in the market, we are raising our financial outlook for 2030.
We are increasing our base business revenue outlook to be $39 billion-$42 billion, and that's up $6 billion-$7 billion from what we shared two years ago. We are also increasing our projections for cash flow from operations to be up $5 billion to greater than $35 billion in our base business, and we're committing to an incremental EBITDA growth of 25% compared to the 20% that we had previously shared. For our Accelera business, we are lowering our revenue guidance based on how we see those markets and solutions evolving today and projecting revenue to be in the range of $3 billion-$9 billion, which is down $3 billion-$4 billion from our previous expectation. We continue to be committed to break even for that Accelera business by 2027.
Overall, Cummins is raising our revenue outlook by $2 billion to $43 billion-$48 billion by 2030, and committing to an EBITDA in the range of 17%-18%. So let me talk more about how we strengthened our position over the last couple of years. On Leap Day this year, we rebranded what we previously called our fuel-agnostic engine platforms to HELM, which stands for High Efficiency, Low Emissions, Multi-fuel. And we see this as an integral part of our strategy to meet our customers' evolving needs by bringing these best-in-class, high-efficiency diesel engines into the market, with the ability to evolve to use alternate fuels, such as natural gas and hydrogen. We've announced that we're beginning production this year with the natural gas version of the X15, specifically designed for the heavy-duty market.
We've also announced the next in the series to be brought to the market, the diesel version of that 15-liter, as we move towards the 2027 EPA and CARB regulations. We've continued to grow and strengthen our position in our Accelera by Cummins business, and of course, you're gonna hear a lot more from Amy about that. Today, we have an e-mobility business that is able to offer our customers a range of different electrified components, batteries, e-axles, power electronics, and controls, as well as an integrated electrified powertrain to meet their needs. We've also continued to strengthen and begun to scale our electrolyzer business, which is by far the greatest adjacent growth opportunity for Cummins, taking advantage of the growing demand for green hydrogen production.
Just before our last Analyst Day, we announced that we were going to acquire Meritor, the Meritor business, and this positions Cummins as a leading provider of integrated powertrain solutions in both engine-based and electrified solutions. Since that time, we've fully integrated the Meritor business into Cummins, and in 2020, we achieved record sales and EBITDA for that business. We are 60% of the way through our value capture commitment and confident in delivering our three-year commitment for value capture. Lastly, our Power Systems business. We've really repositioned this business through a transformation effort that Jenny will talk more about over the last 18 months, that's improved the financial performance of that business and positioned us to continue to capture growth opportunities, most notably the data center growth, which is our largest opportunity in our power generation business today and secular growth opportunity.
I talked about the importance of partnerships, and this continues to play out to be a critical need through this evolving period of time in both our base, traditional engine-based solutions as well as these new zero-emission solutions. So Cummins' strength in this is really providing a benefit for us. You've seen us announce continued expansion of some of our long-standing partnerships, like Daimler, as we serve their medium-duty engine needs globally going forward. And the partnership that we announced with Daimler, PACCAR, and EVE Energy, where together we'll form a joint venture to bring battery cell manufacturing to the United States, focused on commercial vehicle applications. In addition to strengthening our existing partnerships, you've also seen new partnerships being formed. In 2019, we announced a collaboration with Isuzu, both on engine-based solutions as well as zero-emissions-based solutions.
Earlier this week, we announced that we're now in production with Isuzu in their medium-duty truck, now using our B engine in Japan. This is the first time in Cummins history that we are in the Japanese on-highway commercial vehicle market. An exciting milestone for us as we continue to partner and grow together. In addition to OEM partnerships, our end customer partnerships continue to be critical as they look to Cummins to help them understand and navigate evolving technologies in the energy transition. You've seen us collaborating and partnering with those that have sustainability goals to test and advance solutions and help them meet those goals.
One notable example of that is with Walmart, where together we tested and demonstrated the natural gas X15 engine that we're now bringing into the market, and in partnership with Chevron, that helped them deliver renewable natural gas. That's a zero-emission solution and a key part of Walmart's plan to have a zero-emissions fleet. And then we're also partnering across the infrastructure. So in addition to that partnership with Chevron that I just alluded to, we're also partnering with other fueling and charging providers like Clean Energy, Love's, and Trillium, to help our customers ensure that they have the infrastructure that they need to support these new technologies.
One of the key growth trends for Cummins over the last 20 years, during my career at Cummins, has been our continued addition of content to the powertrain and engine solution, and our ability to leverage that content addition to continue to grow our share in the market, as well as our profitability. And this trend is continuing, so I thought I'd bring that to life for you by illustrating it through an example of a heavy-duty truck. So here you see a heavy-duty truck with our next-generation X15 engine and after-treatment system. And these components that we have on the engine and the after-treatment system continue to be critical to meet evolving emissions regulations and customer performance requirements.
In addition, following the formation of the Eaton Cummins joint venture in 2017, we're now providing the Endurant transmission in many of these applications that allows us to further optimize efficiency and performance of this powertrain. And then in 2022, with the addition of Meritor to our business, we are now also providing brakes and axles and a full drivetrain solution to our customers. Again, further optimizing performance and uptime for these customers. So if you put this together, first, it's a lot of red. There's a lot of red on this truck.
and we're unique in our ability to offer all of these key components, as well as an integrated powertrain that translates fuel to power to the wheels and really optimize that system, invest in that system, as our industry evolves and as our customers determine what they want to continue to do themselves versus where they want to partner with Cummins to provide these components or this powertrain solution to them. And if you look at some of these bridge solutions, like a natural gas solution, or even as we start thinking about hybrid and hydrogen engines, we'll have further content and growth in the solutions that we're providing to our customers. So here you see the fuel delivery system that's supplied by Cummins Clean Fuel Technologies.
This is a joint venture we formed with Rush Enterprises in 2022 to provide this fuel delivery system into our X15 natural gas powertrain. And as the pace of the transition to some of these full zero solutions begins to extend, we see increasing opportunity for these bridge solutions. So if you step back from that and you look at the key trends that are driving growth opportunities for Cummins, certainly this content expansion that I just walked you through, as a result of emissions regulations, is going to continue to grow. We see continued OEM outsourcing to Cummins. So today, just with Daimler, we're in production. They're using many of our engines in the U.S. and now in India. That will expand also to Europe and Brazil, and we expect continued OEM partnerships like the one we have with Daimler in the coming years.
We already have a large installed base in the field, and that installed base and population continues to grow, generating continued aftermarket opportunities. Keep in mind, for these applications, they're used for many years, so it's a very long aftermarket tail. Cummins has diversified a lot from what, you know, originally was very heavy U.S. on-highway-focused business, and one of the largest growth opportunities we see now as we've diversified globally is in the data center market. Jenny's gonna talk more about how we're positioned today and how we're positioned to continue to take advantage of that opportunity. Of course, in Accelera, our zero-emissions technologies are a relatively small portion of our revenue today, and as technology adoption of those solutions grows, we'll see growth in that business as well.
In addition to growth, we're also focused on profitability and continuing to expand our margins. To get to that 17%-18% EBITDA range, we will improve margins in our base business as well as our Accelera business through content expansion and value-based pricing, through efficiency improvements in our businesses, a normalization of R&D, which is at a high level right now, and getting our Accelera business to break even. I wanted to share a little bit more detail in each of our businesses on where we're focused to improve profitability. In our Power Systems business, we're gonna build off of the focused transformation effort over the last 18 months to continue to improve operating efficiency of that business, to focus on pricing for value and delivering value to our customers, and rationalizing the product portfolio, investing in the places that we can profitably grow.
In our Engine Business, we'll see content expansion as regulations continue to evolve, and we believe that that, plus this continued trend toward OEM outsourcing, will result in ongoing share gains that will translate to profitability. We're investing at a very high level right now in our engine business, in these fuel-agnostic engine platforms, and as we get to 2027, we'll see more normal levels of R&D spend. And then the China market has been relatively low for us for the last couple of years, and we'll see improvement in that market and continued strengthening of Cummins' position there. The Components Business really matches fairly closely to what's happening in the Engine Business, with content expansion, share gains, and improvement in the China market.
And then, of course, we're gonna continue to deliver on the value capture of our Meritor business and improve margin performance of that business. In our Distribution Business, as we continue to see growth in the aftermarket, we'll see margin expansion, and we're looking at ways we continue to leverage what's really a unique and unrivaled global footprint to profitably grow that business. And lastly, of course, is Accelera, where we're going to demonstrate that as we scale, we reach profitability, and we'll pace investments to make sure that we're investing in the right technologies at the right time. Underpinning all of this has been a focused effort by my team to look at opportunities to simplify and clarify how Cummins operates and further improve performance of our business. We've had a lot of complexity that's happened in Cummins in recent years through our growth and the acquisitions.
And so the restructuring charge you saw us take in the first quarter is an example of the work we're doing to really step back and say: How do we want to shift what the company looks like and how we focus on profitable growth for the future? And with that, I'm really honored to introduce Jenny Bush. Jenny is an excellent example of how Cummins invests in our people and growing people to their full potential. She's grown from a technician to now president of the Power Systems business for Cummins over the course of her career. Jenny has extensive experience in our Distribution Business prior to leading the Power Systems business, and as you'll hear from her, those two businesses are closely intertwined, and that creates a real benefit for us with Jenny leading the business.
She's a very customer-focused, results-oriented leader, and she's driven tremendous transformation and improvement in our North America Distribution business after we acquired those different businesses, when she was there in the, in the role leading that business, and then more recently in her role leading the Power Systems business. So I know you're looking forward to hearing more. We noted in our last earnings call an unusual number of questions about the Power Systems business, and so Jenny's really excited to share more about what's happening there.
Good morning, and thank you, Jen, for such a warm introduction. I am incredibly excited to be here with you today, and I'm super energized to share with you what we've been doing in Power Systems. We've been a little busy over the last 18-24 months, but before I do that, let me remind you who we are and what we do. This business serves some of the hardest and most difficult customer needs in the industry. These markets are highly fragmented, complicated, and the users of these products and applications need a lot from us. There are very few companies, actually, in the industry that can serve these markets, and that's frankly because it's really hard to do.
Our products range from very small consumer gen sets, you can see these up on the screen behind me, to the application of our largest diesel and natural gas engines into data centers, rail, marine, and mining applications. The application of the diesel engine will be here the longest at Cummins in this segment. While our segments are diverse and complex, and we serve a wide array of markets across many sectors of the economy, ultimately, we have to win in mining and power generation. So why is that the case for us? Every company that makes very large engines has something that provides scale. For us, that is power generation, where we sell over 18 GW of energy every single year.
The combination of market-leading technology and our global distribution footprint enables us to compete in those power generation markets and provides us a scale advantage to win in large industrials like mining. Over the last 8-10 years, this business has struggled to find meaningful growth, and this has resulted in declining profitability and, frankly, sluggish performance. My team and I have worked really, really hard over the last 18-24 months, making tough decisions that have enabled us to focus on harnessing the potential and re-energizing this business for growth. This is a truly global business. Over 60% of our revenue resides outside of the U.S. and Canada. And as Jen mentioned, data centers is a critical element and one of the largest secular growth opportunities for Cummins today.
Many of you might think that we're just a power generation business. In fact, we're much more than that, and underpinned by our capability in our large industrials. Over the last 18 months, we have successfully transformed this business from delivering below-average profitability to leading our Cummins business segments. Power Systems is a big part of the Cummins margin improvement story. We have more we can and will do to sustain this trajectory in the future. In 2022, we kicked off a global transformation focused on improving profitability and enabling growth. To do this, we have to simplify our business and address our complex product portfolio. We have to build more efficiency and resiliency in our global supply chains, and we must enable the release of capital for focused investment for our future.
For over the last two years, we've already been able to significantly expand our margins. A dding $200 million of incremental EBITDA in that time period. We've done that through two focused efforts: pricing, not only matching inflation, but also enabling value-based pricing to align the degree of tailoring needed by our customers to the value that we deliver. We have also unlocked efficiency, restructuring our business to drive better execution and rigor, as well as enabling more throughput through our manufacturing footprint and reducing lead times. As we look to 2024 and beyond, there is more we can do to create further improvement in our margin performance. Firstly, we are simplifying and optimizing our manufacturing footprint, aligning those locations to lower cost regions, and also better meeting the needs of where our customers live and work.
For example, we are moving capacity into India and China from some of our higher cost locations because our customer base is residing in those countries. We are also simplifying our U.S. genset production, making our factories in Fridley, Minnesota, more efficient and capable, but also making room for the expansion of the Accelera business into our facilities and transitioning the skills of our workforce. We have regionalized our power generation business from being a globally led centric business from the U.S. into more of a local model, into fit for market, tailored needs, specifically for the regions that they serve. This enables us to harness the power of our organization in India and China, where we have the highest market presence of any of our competitors. And lastly, reducing profit proliferation.
We are streamlining our product offerings to reduce the complexity in our supply chains, further improving our throughput, as well as making sure that we focus on our highest growth opportunities. It's not all cost and rationalizations, though. There are exciting growth opportunities in this business. Data centers are the fastest secular growth opportunity for Cummins, as Jen mentioned, as she spoke this morning. The chart behind me shows our expectation for growth in this market, as well as where we are positioning Cummins to win through 2030. This market is rapidly growing due to the continued growth of the consumer internet demand, digitization, and the rise of artificial intelligence. The use of AI is driving more and more power usage across the world, and that is a fantastic opportunity for our business.
Customers in this segment are incredibly sophisticated buyers, and very few companies have the ability to serve them globally. Cummins is uniquely positioned to capitalize on that market growth. We have recently launched new platforms to improve our power density under our Centum brand, and also tailored our products to enable rapid customer installation. We're seeing a significant change in our order profile as data centers are the predominant new source of order requests, and we've recently won several multi-year global contracts with hyperscalers. How we service this market gives a unique opportunity. The ownership of the Distribution business in Cummins enables an ability to serve not only the product needs, but also the installation and startup capability of these dense data centers and further ongoing contracts that provides a revenue opportunity for Cummins.
We are doubling our capacity to meet our order book in this high-growth market, particularly in our large engine facility in Seymour, Indiana, on some of our highest diesel engines. We've invested vertically to integrate most of our critical components for our data center products. For example, we recently acquired cooling technology that is critical in this space, and that allows us to own all of the needed technology to apply data centers into our markets. We've also significantly lowered the cost whilst further expanding our global capacity in our large alternator business. This further enhances our competitiveness and ownership in the portfolio. These elements enable us to drive a focused approach that will provide Cummins with a multi-billion dollar growth opportunity over the next few years.
Although data centers are clearly the talk of the town these days, we do have a few other things going on in Power Systems. We expect steady growth in our mining business. I was recently in Chile, Peru, and Australia, and our miners told us that power and efficiency is a real increase in value for them in their operations. They are moving more dirt to get to the minerals that you and I use every single day and aspire to use for our future environment. Over 5x more earth than they would have moved 10 years ago. The application of the 95-liter engine into our haul truck market enables efficiency for them on the haul road, moving truck speeds from 11-12 miles an hour to 17-20 miles an hour on the haul road, greatly improving their speed of recovery of the minerals.
Mining customers will keep upcycling diesel as long as they possibly can through engine retrofit and replacement, predominantly done by our Cummins' own distribution channel, enabling us to realize the full margin opportunity and some of the highest availability in this, the network today. We are also seeing the competitive landscape in mining shift as emerging OEMs, particularly from Asia, disrupt the position of the traditional incumbents. Our independence here allows us to capitalize on this new trend. Microgrids is a new frontier for us. This is the next frontier of growth in power generation. This rapidly expanding growth space is where customers are testing lots of different power combinations to support either an absent grid or to solve power needs where the grid is insufficient and failing.
We are exploring how to maximize our participation in this new frontier, leveraging our current product portfolio, as well as defining investment choices that are needed in new technologies. We do know that our regionalized power generation business model, coupled with our global distribution footprint, allows us to adapt to local customer needs specific to the energy challenges in each of these regions. We hope you are now as excited as I am, and as we are, about the future of Power Systems. This business is now a much bigger part of the Cummins story than ever before, and we are confident in our ability to secure top line growth and further expand our margins. We will invest in the right products to serve the most demanding applications and deliver profitable growth for Cummins.
Next, I'm excited to introduce Amy Davis to the stage. She has been in this company for almost 30 years and has worked in almost every part of it. She is a leading light and best positioned to help Cummins win in the transition to new technology. She is also one of the trendsetters of the team. So, Amy, please join me in a minute, but before she takes us and takes the stage, we invite you to watch a brief video about what she's been doing with her team in Accelera.
Changing the future of energy isn't easy. It won't happen overnight. So how do we do it? By leaning on legacy, innovation, and strength, all while moving in new ways and pushing boundaries. We are Accelera, the brightest minds with unrivaled industry and technical know-how, propelling the hardest working sectors forward to power a cleaner future and a brighter tomorrow. Down city blocks and across countries for cleaner construction sites and school bus routes, enabling the generation of hydrogen to green the grid. We're making change, but there's still more work to do, and we can't make it happen alone. Governments, customers, and whole industries must work together to overcome big challenges. Accelera is in it for the long haul, doing the hard work today to protect tomorrow, and together, we can accelerate the shift.
Thanks, Jenny. I have to explain the trendsetter comment because Jen called me and said she was going to wear Accelera colors, so I said, "Fine, then I'll wear Cummins colors." As you can see from the video, we've had a really exciting few years building momentum and growing our presence in the zero-emission space. We've expanded our position with major OEMs in e-mobility. OEMs are realizing firsthand the challenges of operating zero-emissions vehicles in the commercial environment, and they're looking to partners like Cummins more and more. We are scaling electrolyzers in a systematic and pragmatic way, together with global partners. While we've lowered our revenue projections for 2030, we have grown market share, we are improving margins, and we are committed to a break even in 2027.
Our mission is clear and focused: to accelerate the shift to net zero by pursuing the most promising paths forward. Launching the Accelera brand has really done three important things for us at Accelera. It's helped us stand out. It's a crowded market, lots of people trying to get in, lots of new entrants, startups, and this gives us a way to really stand out. But it focused our employees as well and inspired them to accelerate innovation. And finally, it's really articulated a clear mission and technical focus for us. Commercial segments are unique. Products need to work under tough demands and unique duty cycles, and we are investing in these very specific solutions. Accelera is a growth opportunity for the company, and the brand gives us a banner to rally around.
When we were last together in 2022, we shared how we would win in this market, and I'm here to tell you it's really working. We wanted to combine the innovation, agility of a startup with the strength of our incumbency. And the way we're doing that is really focusing on a unique culture, keeping a culture that's a little bit separate from Cummins, giving us the latitude to invest in faster processes, new business models with our OEMs and end customers. But the incumbency is important, too. We've been able to leverage our key relationships with global customers, the duty cycle knowledge that we have and put it into our products, and also, like Jenny mentioned, tap into some of our manufacturing and supply chain expertise as we really productionize these products.
And finally, as the products are out there, customers are starting to really value our service and support channel. There's somebody they can go to who can support them and help them figure out how to navigate this. It's also been a real help for our electrolyzer business as we're doing commissioning of projects now more and more. The complementary broad portfolio also has proven to open doors and expand opportunities for us. Having both electrolyzers and e-mobility solutions enables us to address the chicken and the egg problem with many of our big global customers, but also the broad portfolio of the axles, batteries, motors, inverters.
It gives us the opportunity to get a foot in the door with just one component with a customer, and then as they're starting to think about their full product plan, how we bring more and more to bear on that and expand our share of wallet. Our strategic focus on commercial applications is proving out. A lot of the people who entered the market with passenger kind of batteries haven't really worked, and so they're going out of business, some, and also, we're working closer with customers to say: How do we replace those? How do we help them get back up and running in some of these truck applications? It's also, you know, helped us pace because having this broad portfolio, some of the things aren't panning out the way we thought they would in terms of how fast people are moving.
An example of this might be e-axles, but we have motors and inverters, so we're selling some traction central systems, and that gives us a foot in the door again as we navigate to e-axles, slowing our pace of investment there and putting it on something that we already have in the market. Our thesis still holds true. Accelera is best positioned because of our broad portfolio of technologies, our knowledge and experience in the market, in the industries that we serve, and our strong global relationships. Over the past couple of years, we've clearly structured the business into two distinct businesses, e-mobility and electrolyzers. They have complementary aspects, but the technologies, the project approach, and the scaling requirements are distinct. So the way I'm going to talk about this today is go through each of these so you can see how they're playing out for us.
We'll start with e-mobility, where we have over 100 years history with customers around the world. Jen talks about content. So this slide is an electric version of the content slide that Jen showed. I want to make three points here. We have the component set that positions us for a variety of ZEV architecture scenarios. So we can do components, as I mentioned before, or complete systems. So if BEV is taking off in one segment faster, we can provide the components for that, or we can add a fuel cell to make it a fuel cell EV, but also many of these components play into hybrid, which is becoming more interesting with some of the new 2027 regulations that people are trying to deal with.
Also, having the portfolio breadth is opening doors for us. OEMs don't have resources to do it all. This is playing into electrification as well. There's a lot of different options and things they need to invest in, and they're looking to us to be their innovator. The third point I want to make is content growth is real here, too. If you look at an electric drivetrain for a medium-duty, the revenue opportunity is +50% that of a medium-duty conventional truck, and for heavy duty, it's more than 100%. So the revenue growth in and itself is huge. Now, I want to highlight how our position has advanced. We're working with every customer that you see on here. We're providing some portion of their electrified powertrain. We are leading in market share in commercial vehicle in the U.S. We now have more than 1.5 billion miles in the field on our e-mobility products.
We have a strong position in bus, and this is important because it's really the earliest adopting segment, and it's a tough duty cycle, so we're getting a lot of learnings, and it's giving us volumes as we ramp up. We have more than 24,000 traction systems deployed to date. We have serial production traction systems for customers like IVECO and New Flyer, and we provide full powertrain solutions to Blue Bird and GILLIG, and we are powering more than 1,500 buses in communities across North America. We've partnered with nearly every truck OEM that you see on here, from pilots, demonstration products, to production.
You saw this week, I hope, our announcement with Isuzu, that we reached agreement to do a medium duty truck with them, their F-S eries here in North America, which will not only leverage Accelera's LFP battery technology, but also we'll be doing the full powertrain. With Scania, we've been working on a fuel cell demonstration project in Europe. We are delivering our next gen fuel cells later this year into fleets, strategic fleets across Europe that we'll be learning with together with Scania. And with PACCAR, we sell e-axles and integrated accessory systems for their production heavy-duty trucks here in North America. And just one more example, next week at ACT Expo, we'll be displaying a fuel cell engine truck with Navistar for Werner. This will be one of our latest pilots of fuel cells.
Again, an example of partnering with a fleet to get real live experience and help them transition. We've made huge advancements in our position, and we are ready to capitalize as the volumes ramp up. I just want to touch on the joint venture that Jen mentioned, but together with PACCAR, Daimler and EVE, this venture to localize and manufacture battery cells in the U.S., leveraging IRA funding, is really exciting for us. Our partners are the biggest players in the North America truck market, and we have a shared view that LFP is the right technology for commercial vehicle, and that by investing in a unique cell technology for commercial vehicle, we'll be able to differentiate. This will set a performance standard in the market that the others will have to match.
This also enables us to share this big investment with really credible partners, and finally, with uncertain adoption, it helps us create scale together. Just a plug, we're doing a groundbreaking event on June 28 at the site in Mississippi, together with our partners and some government partners as well. So that'll be an exciting next milestone. Now I'd like to shift gears and start to talk about electrolyzers. This remains a significant outgrowth opportunity. Let's take a look at how the market is shaping up. You can see there's still a lot of growth in this market. These are several different third-party views showing the curve of growth that they see in green hydrogen production. But the challenges we are seeing is what's impacting our guidance in this area.
The projects are taking longer to materialize. This is true, and the incentive, availability and access is an issue in Europe, and in particular, the uncertainty on the 45V tax credits as part of the IRA is keeping some U.S. players waiting on the sidelines. The industry as a whole is also working through the challenges as projects grow in scale and volume. For example, you've heard announcements over the past couple of years of 100 MW, 200 MW, 500 MW projects of green hydrogen. They've never been done before. So actually bringing those to an investment, getting the site ready, all of the complications is creating a bit of a bottleneck in terms of the industry, and the overall supply chain is really maturing. This sounds a bit negative. It's true. It adds up to a slower ramp-up, but that's all right.
From our perspective, this slowing pace plays really well into our deliberate growth strategy in this area. In electrolyzers, we are really leveraging the strength of our core. Our ability to actually scale products and have global strategic relationships has been fundamental to what we're doing here. From a product standpoint, we acquired leading PEM technology and are investing in a clear product development plan that is scalable. This is exactly the slide we showed you two years ago. We have not deviated from it. We're systematically building this out. We're standardizing these product designs and the manufacturing processes, and we're systematic in how we're launching these in the market, with a keen focus on using the same building blocks. With each new product iteration, we improve both technical and financial performance.
From a partnership standpoint, here's just an example of some of the strategic relationships that we've formed with global players around the world. Partners like NextEra, Iberdrola, Linde, BP, Chevron, all of these customers are like-minded. They're looking at how they scale up. They want to be systematic in how they do it, and they want to advance the industry together with us. These strategic relationships have been key to some of our project wins. From a project standpoint, we're being pragmatic in how we go about it and how we deliver in order to build trust and credibility in the marketplace. We advanced from our 20 MW, first of its kind, Becancour plant that we talked about a few years ago and have commissioned a 25 MW with Florida Power & Light that's producing hydrogen today.
And we also have a 90 MW project currently today being built in our Fridley, Minnesota facility and a 100 MW project being built in our Spain facility. So these are in production, getting ready to be commissioned and delivered the end of this year, next year. So just like we've done with e-mobility, we're taking a long-term view, and we're capitalizing on the significant growth opportunity from a systematic approach, building credibility with partners. Overall, hydrogen and electrification, it's a long, uncertain transition, as Jen talked about. We have a broad portfolio, though, that positions us well across many adoption scenarios, and we're applying a disciplined focus in how we pace our investments as we see changes in the market.
So I want to give you a few examples of this so you can really have confidence that last year was our highest EBITDA losses and will continue to drive revenue growth. We took a pause on our investment in solid oxide fuel cells. We talked a lot about this a few years ago. We saw that slowing down and that technology not really going where we wanted it to. And in general, in fuel cells, we've seen some slowdown across some of the adoption rates, so we've slowed the way we're scaling that to save money and put it elsewhere. We divested our low-voltage battery business, which removed costs and focused resources on bus and medium-duty opportunities that we have. And we really focused our efforts on PEM electrolysis, where we see that we have a real differentiation and an opportunity to lead in the market.
We've also strategically consolidated our manufacturing footprint and subsequent overhead. After seven acquisitions, our footprint grew quite quickly. We've now assessed and adjusted that across more than five sites for real tangible savings, and we're leveraging our core manufacturing capability and Cummins footprint to do that. So a couple of examples of this, you've heard about how we're putting electrolyzer manufacturing in Fridley, Minnesota, leveraging that capability. We've also put our e-mobility manufacturing in our Columbus, Indiana, site and consolidated much of that footprint there. This has allowed us to funnel our investment to where it matters most, which is the technology.
Finally, we're making a real shift in gross margin performance. The market is maturing, with industry consolidation and more realistic expectations on price and performance. As we move from first generation products into the second and third generation, we're seeing improved cost standardization and predictability and overall lower warranty costs. This very deliberate and disciplined approach sets us up well as the demand materializes into more consistent and predictable volumes.
Let me share the details of how we see revenue playing out to 2030. Broadly speaking, there are still many unknowns, so we have a broad range still of revenue guidance from $3 billion-$9 billion. For the e-mobility business, we have a much clearer view than we had two years ago. We've been bringing businesses together, collaborating with OEMs, and we've leveraged our foot in the door to win opportunities. We see a range of $2 billion-$4 billion in revenue by 2030. This will be achieved through growing our current business and executing on the program wins we have in bus and truck. In electrolyzers, there is, frankly, a broader range of outcomes. We have more uncertainty.
There was lots of hype driving us before, but the many challenges that we've seen in launching large-scale projects is driving us to a more conservative scenario. We are in a strong position with the right partners and products, which will create the projects we need. And so we see a revenue opportunity of $1 billion, underpinned by a combination of strong pipeline of bids, FEED studies we're involved with, and firm backlogs. This could be up to $5 billion, depending on particularly the decisions in the regulatory environment and other areas of supply chain development.
Across our footprint, we have the capability to deliver to the demand levels at the high end of this, and we're focused very carefully on pacing that to match the market need. By strategically pacing investments overall, our overhead consolidation and the clear roadmap we have for gross margin positive products, we will reduce our losses and hit breakeven in 2027. While there remains a lot of external factors driving market uncertainty to a range of revenue outcomes, Accelera is a growth business for the company through new markets, partnerships, and expanding share of wallet with core customers. We are navigating this transition well, earning credibility and market share by systematically scaling products and advancing our strategic partnerships.
I would now like to introduce someone I guess you know well, our CFO, Mark Smith, who also, I just would say, is a trendsetter. We heard that he pulled out a new white shirt for today.
Thank you. Thank you, and good morning, everybody. If it's fashion you're looking for, I'm on the wrong stage, but what I do know is that earnings growth and cash flow generation should never go out of fashion, and that's our key message today. Let's start with a quick reminder of our long track record of performance improvement at Cummins. Managing through cycles is a key attribute for a company like Cummins that's in cyclical industries, and we're proud of our record of improving performance cycle over cycle. The simplest way we measure that is to look at our performance over successive troughs, trough to trough, and successive peaks, and you can see how we've improved earnings per share over the last four cycles.
It's whilst it's always exciting to talk about new technologies, and competitive dynamics, cyclical management really is an important part of maintaining strength, for the future. And several of us here have been here at Cummins long enough to live, including me, to live through all of these cycles. I do want to point out that these numbers have been adjusted to remove the impact of Atmus from our financials for illustration purposes. It doesn't change the trend. We will provide a reconciliation between the full results and actuals, but I just wanted to point that out for consistency. And on a go-forward basis, we've adjusted Atmus out.
This growth in earnings per share has really been driven by expansion in the profitability of our core business, as you've heard from Jenny, Jen, and that's. You can see here over the last three downturns, we've tripled our EBITDA between 2014 and 2023. Our EBITDA has gone from just under $3 billion to over $5 billion, of course, partly helped by the acquisition of Meritor. While we've been significantly improving the profitability of our core business, as you've heard from Amy, we've been proactive in investing in new technologies ahead of widespread market adoption. It's important that we continue to develop, sell, and get experience with these new technologies ahead of a more faster transition to adoption. And while we've done that, it's been necessary to invest and incur losses as we've expanded our capabilities and increased the suite of portfolio of our products.
It's great, though, to share that we believe now we've passed that peak of those EBITDA losses, as you heard from Amy. We see some improvement in our EBITDA, yet in 2024 on this journey to EBITDA breakeven in 2027. And while we've been improving profitability in our core business and investing significantly in the Accelera business, we've been able to convert that performance into record levels of cash flow. So again, here you can see the actual cash generated by our business over the last three downturns on the left and the last three peaks on the right, resulting in a record $4 billion of operating cash flow in 2024. And these 2023, these numbers are all inclusive, no adjustments.
Because of the expansion in profitability and the strong cash generation, we've been able to deliver return on invested capital above our peer group average over the one, three, and five-year periods. And that's been whilst we've absorbed and improved a significant acquisition in Meritor. Capital discipline is an important focus at Cummins, has been now for a long time, and has to be married with our ambition for earnings growth. Because we've had strong financial results, we've been able to return more to shareholders. Here's a simple chart that summarizes our cash dividends on the bottom half of each of these bar charts. And on the top half of the bar charts, you can see the cash repurchases.
In 2024, I've added the fair value of the non-cash share exchange for Atmus, which had a fair value of $1.5 billion, and reduced common share count by almost 5.6 million shares on a tax-free basis. While I'll be cheering on our friends and colleagues at Atmus in their successful journey for the future, I want to let you know that I held on to all of my common shares and did not participate in the exchange. What's more interesting than what we've done is what we're going to do, and that is drive a lot more improvement. Fundamentally, of course, is continued margin expansion in the core. You've heard from Jen, you've heard from Jenny about that. Continue to drive operational improvements. That's an everyday activity at Cummins.
We expect to deliver strong returns on new products, and then, as Jen mentioned, we're expecting to reach the peak of our investment cycle in R&D and CapEx in 2026, and start to see the financial spend on those investments taper off post-2026, which are going to help our incremental margins. And then Amy's already talked about successfully transitioning Accelera to breakeven. And the good news is we expect to convert those expanded margins into more cash. And cash is really important. That's what allows us to keep investing through the economic cycles and continue to have that flexibility to invest in growth and return more cash to shareholders. So we think we can move up our record operating cash flow of $4 billion in 2023 to the $5 billion -$6 billion range in 2030.
To summarize our capital allocation priorities, reinvesting for growth has always been the number one priority at Cummins. We've been on a program of deleveraging post-Meritor acquisition. We're coming towards the end of that journey of deleveraging. We've continued to grow the dividend. We paused returning excess cash to shareholders through share repurchases as we work through our deleveraging. But the main thing I want you to take away from 2025 to 2030, stronger cash generation gives us more flexibility to return more cash to shareholders, whilst not only supporting the growth activities of the company. Jen shared with you, excuse me. Jen shared with you the dollar targets for the base business, for Accelera, for the company in total. This is your elevator slide.
This is the one you need on your screensaver when you're walking around thinking about how much to invest in Cummins or recommend to others. We believe we can generate a CAGR in revenue growth of 5%-7%, almost mostly organic. That's supported by the secular things you heard earlier today from Jen, from Jenny, and of course, more transition to zero emissions vehicles in the future through our Accelera business. EBITDA, we can grow in the 7%-9% range, and then we believe earnings per share can expand at a higher rate, driven by the profit growth, enhanced by more cash return to shareholders.
To summarize, I hope you leave here today knowing that Cummins is the best place to serve global OEMs in their growth aspirations. We've got the portfolio of products, we've got the talent, and we've got the financial wherewithal to keep investing to support those OEMs wherever they are in the world. We believe these secular themes can allow us to grow at 1.5 times GDP. The combination of margin improvement and disciplined capital investment will lead us to higher returns. I do want to reinforce that our outlook for 2024 is unchanged. We expect a stronger first half and a modest slowdown, particularly in North American truck, starting in Q3, but our full-year outlook is unchanged.
That's my summary. Thank you for your time. I'll turn it back to Jen.
Thank you, Mark. So I think Mark rounded out our presentation nicely, illustrating our track record of delivering on improving financial results and how our strategy translates into continued growth and profitable growth for Cummins. I hope that my three points I started with have become clear through this presentation. Our Destination Zero strategy is the right strategy, and Cummins is well positioned to continue to grow regardless of the pace of the energy transition. We've strengthened our position, and we're executing on our strategy and the commitments that we've made, and we're raising our financial expectations for 2030. So it's been a pleasure to share all this with you, and I think you've also had an opportunity to see that investment in building capability and strong leaders.
We have an incredibly talented leadership team that's behind this strategy, the work that we're doing, and committed to continuing to deliver for all of you. So we're gonna take a 15-minute break now. When we come back, as Chris noted, we'll have Brett Merritt, our Vice President of Engine Business, joining us, as well as Bonnie Fetch, the Vice President of our Distribution business. We'll take questions at that point, and then following that, we'll have a lunch, and we have some other Cummins leaders here as well, including John Wood, our Chief Technical Officer, Jeff Wiltrout, our strategy leader, Srikanth Padmanabhan, our operations executive VP, and Carol Casto, our VP of Communications. So you get a chance to interact with all of us during the lunchtime, and the food here is excellent if you haven't tried it already.
Please take a break, and we'll resume in 15 minutes for Q&A.
We'll do it right at 10:30, so.
Ladies and gentlemen, the Q&A will begin in five minutes. Ladies and gentlemen, the Q&A will begin in three minutes.
Oh, yeah. We're live now. There we go. Okay, let's move into the Q&A. We've got lots of time for Q&A. Colleen and David are going to assist with the microphones. If you can try your initial questions with one comment, one question, one related follow-up. We will go around the room, so please don't worry. Let's start with Steve.
All right. Thank you. I'm not used to being first. So, can we just talk a little bit about how you're looking at margins kind of by segment as we go up through 2030? Where is kind of the most opportunity and maybe, I don't know if there's headwinds in some area, but just any color you can give us by segment.
Yeah, I'll start off, and the others can fill in, chime in. But I think we see margin improvement in all of the businesses. Jen tried to give you the headlines of what the drivers are. The biggest single headwind, I think, if you like, is the investment profile in the engine business, coupled with what's been a depressed China market. I realize China is a market thing, not a self-help thing, but it's really that investment profile in the engine business that's probably the single biggest headwind. And then, of course, key to the Accelera improvement to break even, which is a significant driver. There's over 1% margin improvement there. It's all the factors that Amy talked about, really, the rollout of the new versions of the products, combined with all the consolidation work that we've done.
So those, those are probably the biggest things to work through. You've seen the momentum already in the Power Systems business. We've already raised the guidance this year. We've got a lot of momentum, so we're really pleased after quite a period of, yeah, below-par performance in that business. So I think that aftermarket growth should come naturally in the Distribution business. It's really getting over this investment hump, Steve, and, of course, delivering those products that make our customers successful. I think what could make it—well, the big assumption here is this rate of transition, which we thought was going to be messy, is messier. Sometimes it's good to be hedged on both sides, and so we can see more or less acceleration between engines and components and accelerate depending on that rate of transition.
Yeah, we feel confident in margin expansion opportunities in all areas. And you heard from Jenny, like, the data centers, it's not just an ambition in data centers. She and her team have secured large customer orders. Exact delivery dates and everything can vary, but we've got commitments. We've got commitments on OEM outsourcing. We've got commitments on the data center business. So we're really talking about things that we've got pretty high confidence in driving the top line, and it's up to us to convert that to the margin improvement and managing the investments.
Okay, great. And my follow-up, I actually asked this on the conference call, and you guys punted it, so I'm going to do it again now. How much exactly are we increasing capacity for PowerGen? How much does that cost? What's the timeframe?
Yeah, I'll take a stab at that one. I should know. But, we are doubling our large engine capacity, particularly here in the U.S. So we've got our asset footprint, we've got room in the utilization of that to continue to expand and increase. Where we have bottlenecks is in our supply base, as well as in our capacity in the Seymour, Indiana, place specifically. So we're doubling that in the engine space.
But we're talking tens of millions. N ot hundreds of millions of dollars.
Yes. Correct.
It's fairly easy math, given the size of the revenue growth, for the amount of investment that's required.
Yeah.
Okay, let's go back and watch it.
Hi, good morning, guys. It's Chad Dillard from Bernstein. So my first question is on just how you're thinking about pricing power in the 2026 and beyond, as you think about your opportunity to renegotiate your long-term agent supply agreements, and then some of the, the more productive engines that you, you plan to introduce over that timeframe.
Who wants to start with that one?
So I'll start with that one. It does present an opportunity. This is the reason that we're bringing the HELM platform to the market. And so, you'll see both a content expansion, which I think Jen highlighted, but that obviously allows us a new opportunity to make sure we get value within the long-term agreements. You pretty much know how we position ourselves, and we feel very confident about that. And as long as we're delivering the value, I believe there is some pricing opportunity yet, but obviously, it won't be defined for the next couple of years.
Okay.
I would say it's also important theme for the Components Business as well. We sell to third-party engine manufacturers also, who are making their last iteration of technology, and so having the right position there is a focus area for us.
Great. And then the second question is just on the Power Systems and specifically on data centers. So you had that slide up that shows your growth potential through 2030. I was hoping you could talk about a little bit, not just about your OE opportunity, but the service tail that ensues afterwards.
Yeah, let me start there. So I'll tell you a little bit about how we go to market, and then Bonnie really owns the ability to place it into the market and long-term take care of it. So we sell the gen set, which is the engine, the alternator, the radiator, all the stuff that goes around it, controls, into the market through our Distribution business. So wherever we are in the world, that is consistent. And then that application of those sets goes out. And from a data center perspective, we've launched this new Centum range, which is all about extending power density. So for the same footprint, you get more power output than, you know, traditional power generation would have been.
That's been a big benefit of adoption in those, those markets, because you sell a lot of backup capacity to the customer. They'll take 20, 30 of these large units, 4 MW of power in each single one, to back up those data centers on a rapid start application. Bonnie, why don't you?
Yeah. And so when we get the genset from Jenny's business, we obviously have balance of plant opportunities, commissioning, and then the aftermarket maintenance contracts, aftermarket parts sales, and an opportunity to build the relationship with customers to continue the buying decisions into the future. So significant opportunity as we continue to grow.
Let's go to Steve, and then we'll come back to Christine.
Great, thanks. Steve Fisher, UBS. In terms of the outsourcing that customers are doing to you, and with you, how do these discussions go in terms of, you know, what types of things they're still considering outsourcing to you, versus the things they want to keep internal? Should we think that there are still, you know, major programs and components that can really move the needle from here, or is it more kind of at the margin type things?
Let me start, and then I want to have Brett comment on that as well. So really, the biggest driver for the conversations on outsourcing more to Cummins is when we have a regulatory change. So that's what drives the next need to make an investment, and then the decision on, do I want to invest in my own? Does that make business sense, or do I want to try to come in? So you've seen a lot of those conversations in the medium-duty space, which is the first of our markets that we expect to electrify. Heavy-duty is going to take longer. That application is more challenging to move to these zero-emission solutions.
Jenny noted Power Systems is going to be, you know, many of those applications will be even the longest, but it's really regulatory shifts and the need to invest that is the biggest factor in that. You know, in some cases, it's been announced, in other cases, you know, customers don't want to talk about those things. But what I would say is, you know, those are regular conversations and also in the Accelera technologies as well, because as things start to move, but at a more slow pace, do I want to invest? When do I want to invest? So we see an opportunity to build scale, to build a technology leadership position that will then position us in a stronger place, as things continue to evolve. Startups are increasingly not able to continue through this long, messy transition.
OEMs are trying to figure out their places, and so we think that gives us a position of strength, both in the Accelera side of our business as well as engine business. But, Brett, why don't you talk more about with the engine customers with that?
Yeah. I'll talk about it from an engine perspective, but Amy and I work a lot on this, both on Accelera and the Components Business . So if there isn't the large engine opportunity, many times we're having those same discussions regarding components for whatever engines our various customers would like to continue to maintain. And so if you think about the difficult regulatory environments around the world that continue to get tougher, and the product demands by end users, we believe we can meet them better and with greater scale.
And so for those OEMs who are starting to look to invest the hundreds of millions of dollars it takes to put an engine system into market, they have to look at, can they bring that to scale at a cost that's better than buying from Cummins, and at a value to the end customer that's better than if they chose Cummins. And we've been in these discussions with large OEMs for a long, long time. We've announced the Daimler partnership when we think about medium duty. You're now seeing the Isuzu partnership come to fruition, which we've worked a long time at.
I actively anticipate you'll continue to see these, particularly in those areas where the customer is serving a niche, and they themselves cannot invest in that niche as well as we can, who bring 1.3 million engines and or component systems to bear. That gives us a huge scale and performance advantage, and we would anticipate this continues. We typically think about this in the on-highway market, where these tough emissions have already driven some of this discussion. You're also going to see this happen in off-highway, whether it be agriculture, construction, and others, because those emission standards are now coming to fruition at the end of this decade, and I think you'll see continued movement in this space from us. We obviously don't necessarily announce them.
We usually wait on our customers to announce these, but I think it's an exciting outgrowth opportunity for us, to continue.
Maybe to put it in a nutshell, the transition is not accelerating, and our already established scale advantage is being reinforced. So that's the good news for Cummins, and who'd have thought even 10, 15 years ago, we'd be talking about clear line of sight to more OEM outsourcing? So that's exciting trend.
Just to follow up on Meritor, I think you mentioned you're 60% of the way through the value capture there. Can you talk about what still needs to be done ahead of you? And then from a timing perspective, do you think that can align with perhaps if we have a pre-buy to a next peak in, say, 2026, you know, is that sort of the stars aligning to having all that value captured by then and then driving some, you know, notable upside in the engine or in the business by then?
Well, I hope the value captures before 2026, and I think some of the stars have been aligning. We had a rough start when we acquired the business, but we continue to see steady improvement in the profitability in that business. Amy, anything, anything else you would add?
I would just say, you know, really, the only things remaining are just some of those structural things that took the systems to come through. And, once those are implemented this year, really, the bulk of this should be done this year. And then I think the growth opportunity, like, we're starting to structure to bring some things together to get more synergy between, let's say, the ECJV and our Meritor business, or let's say in our Distribution business and some of the growth opportunity there. And then we are making moves in really important ways into the sites, the plants, making sure we're keeping those updated and really well prepared for the capacity needs of the markets.
Hi, good morning. This is Tami Zakaria from JPMorgan. So my first question is to Amy. What do you think the EBITDA margin for the Accelera business could look like at the low end of $3 billion and at the high end of the $9 billion sales target?
Yeah, it's a really tough question, of course, because there are so many still uncertainties in terms of the mix of that. What I would just say at a high level, the trend would say that our e-mobility business is just a bit ahead on the margin profile. We're close-- We're already launching this year our third generation of batteries, so we're, as I talked about, each generation, we're learning and being able to apply that learning. And so as that mix shifts there versus the electrolyzer business, which is still a bit bumpy, as you know, the scale of some of these projects we're learning from. So I would say that would be the mix will be a big driver in terms of where that is.
But the projects that we're quoting and, and the work that we're quoting now is all in the gross margin positive range. And so, you know, really, the scale is also gonna matter to get some of the consistency that we need and volumes to really get to the high end of an EBITDA profile.
Thank you. That's very helpful. My follow-up question is on the engine segment. What's really embedded in terms of heavy-duty and medium-duty engine market share by 2030 when we think about that, you know, the base business, $39 billion-$42 billion?
Yeah, I don't think we've given share guidance necessarily through 2030. Mark can comment here in a second. What we'd say is we have, we feel very strong with our medium-duty penetration and participation in the North American market. We believe that continues, if not, continues to strengthen. And on heavy duty, I think we've shown where a few years ago, we were in the mid-20s, and we've now climbed into near 40, that we'll continue to introduce new product platforms that will perform very well. So you heard we're launching the natural gas product in the 15-liter range right now, and will be sold this year. We think that strengthens our portfolio there because it gives some options that end customers didn't have today to utilize in a variety of applications for natural gas.
And then second, we'll continue to come out with an even stronger 10-liter platform that'll participate on the bottom end of the heavy duty. So if you combine those with our diesel and then later, hydrogen 15-liter programs, we would say that that heavy duty continues to strengthen above where our range is today, but we obviously hasn't given guidance on, on share per se for that long. Pretty strong.
Okay. We'll get to you next.
Okay.
Thank you. Angel Castillo from Morgan Stanley. Just wanted to quick clarifier on the pricing question around engines, particularly around 2026. Just to be clear, is that embedded in guidance as you think about 2030, or would that be, given that it's something that's somewhat to be determined, is that something that would be incremental to how you kind of view in the market?
Well, our expected returns on those new investments are embedded in our guidance.
Okay. And I guess then shifting over to, again, or maybe continuing with EPA 2027, to the extent that there's any potential for, you know, from a, a presidency dynamic, that there's a push out on EPA 2027, can you talk about how that impacts your rollout of the product? I think it's expected in 2026, and kind of your expectations around profitability and, and overall kind of, dynamics for engines.
So I just wanna make a couple points as it relates to potential presidential change in the U.S. First, Cummins is always working across both parties, advocating for what we think are the right priorities and capability to advance our industry, and we'll continue to do that. And in fact, the industry has generally worked very collaboratively with the EPA on regulation and what that looks like, and supported EPA regulation, which means that typically we don't see regulation winding and winding. The work that's underway right now to try to firm up some of the IRA funding, I think, is critical to ensure that that continues. I think it's unlikely that we'll see a change in the EPA 2027 regulation. And the big thing we're watching is what does CARB do?
We've now aligned EPA and CARB NOx regulations in 2027 with the EPA Greenhouse Gas Phase III. Does that influence in any way CARB's CO2 and ZEV regulation? That's the thing to watch.
Go to Jeff. We'll keep working our way around.
Thank you very much. Jeff Kauffman from Vertical Research Partners. Mark, I just want to come back to you on the long-term CAGR guidance. You said 7%-9% EBITDA and 7%-9% earnings. But at the same time, you're talking about not needing to deleverage as much after 2025. You're talking about kinda hitting a peak on investment in 2026 on the R&D after the HELM platform, I guess, comes out. The implication would be free cash flow would get a little bit better.
Yes.
I would think there would be return to shareholders. Why isn't that earnings per share guidance a little higher?
It's greater than. So again, we've got to deliver the cash, and then that gives us the flexibility. But the greater than was there. Yeah.
All right, but we're thinking about it the right way.
Absolutely.
Okay. Thank you.
Okay, we're all on this side. Okay, we're just gonna work our way back, just for simplicity. Okay.
You're all on this side. Noah Kaye with Oppenheimer. First, you know, thank you for keeping the framework for the long-term targets comparable to 2022 so we can ask these questions and make these comparisons. But, you know, at a high level, taking up the total revenue outlook by more than the shift between the base business and Accelera. Want to make sure that we've unpacked that and understand the bridge. And one observation here is, to go to one of the comments earlier, you have higher content on Accelera, and so the fact that you're taking up revenue more than the shift in Accelera suggests that there's multiple growth drivers within the business, and we just want to have that bridge.
You've given us some nuggets, but if we think about the delta, how do we think about how much is data center, how much is market share gains, content growth opportunities? Just help us understand the bridge.
Yeah, I think the biggest single thing or where we've got more line of sight, is on the data center side. If you'd asked us two years ago even, we would not have anticipated the level of enthusiasm, and beyond enthusiasm, actual customer commitment. So that's the biggest single factor. And then, yeah, generally, our market share has been growing. We've been solidifying more customer commitments over time. That's given us confidence to boost the revenues across the segments.
So it's sort of like half and half?
Yeah.
Is that a fair way to-- Okay.
Good, good way to think about it.
All right, and, and then just a quick clarifying question: the doubling of capacity, in large engine, is that over a 2030 timeframe or more near term?
That's already underway. So we started that work last year, at the back end of last year, and that will continue over the next couple of years. It's a significant uplift in the supply chain to enable that to happen. So it's not just within our walls of our facilities- It's also within our suppliers.
So by, like, 2026, is that-- Okay.
When the business, Power Systems business wasn't performing as well, then we weren't spending as much capital. Now we've got line of sight, we're obviously happy to do that with the rising margin profile and the customer commitment. Okay. Jamie, we'll move to Jamie, and then we'll do the middle row. Let's see.
Hi, good morning. Jamie Cook from Truist. I guess, first question, could you just, Jenny, elaborate on the microgrid opportunity? What's implied—like, you're sort of positioning there, what you need to get to that $1 billion extra, and is that contemplated in the doubling of capacity? And then I guess a follow-up would be, anything you feel like you need to do inorganic and inorganically to complete the Power Systems business? And then I have a follow-up for Mark after that.
Okay. I'll try and get it all.
That's one Power Systems.
I was out for two quarters.
Make it up for lost time.
Yeah. So microgrids is where we apply multiple technologies, whether that's solar, wind, renewables, with either a new application grid provision or whether it's, you know, supporting grid that's failing. That's what it does, essentially. And as countries are focused on energy security, as well as making sure that they have available capacity in their grid system, this is where these microgrids are popping up. And it's becoming quite a rapid space in terms of where we're getting a lot of inquiries. In all of those cases, there is a standby generator that's applied. We make most of those today already, and as we expand our power, that will just give us more opportunity there. There's also controls that enable you to switch between.
So that would be the opportunity in terms of inorganic in that control space. That's something we're assessing because this market has teetered for a while, and so we just want to make sure that it's the right move forward as we go into that.
Sorry, just to build on that, I mean, we are also working very closely together because there are opportunities where battery storage can play very heavily into that, and also, as we look at fuel cell technology, where and, and how that can play. So this is an opportunity we're looking at together. But is there anything inorganic needed in the Power Systems business?
Potentially. In that control space.
Okay, and then, sorry, follow-up question, clarification for Mark. Mark, to get to the greater than 25% incremental margin, is that right away? i.e., if we had a truck pre-buy in 2025, you could get there, or do we have to wait until after R&D starts to come down?
I don't like waiting, you know, so we've been waiting. So we're working on improving margins every day. And as Jen talked about, while in the grand scheme of things, modest, we, you know, we took a restructuring charge here in the second quarter. So beyond all the exciting things we're doing on the products, we continue to look at the way we're organized, the structure of the company's effectiveness and complexity. So we are—I want you—the main takeaway here, yes, we feel more confident about line of sight to these revenue opportunities, in my opinion, than, than we did two years ago. And hopefully, you heard a lot about margin and cash flow because that's a real primary focus for us.
Yeah, I just would add, you know, driving that in the near term and on a sustained basis. Having a focus on how we're gonna continue to drive margin expansion over time. That's how we're thinking about it.
Okay.
He's waited really patiently. And he's gone. Thanks, David.
Hello, Bryan Wagman from Saguaro Capital Management. Thanks for having me. My question is just, could you rehash for us kind of the key factors that caused the energy transition to happen more slowly than was previously expected? And what are the key things that would need to change in order for that to accelerate?
Yeah, I'll do the kind of remind you of the high-level drivers, and then, you know, Amy, maybe you want to comment on some of the things that you're hearing from, from customers more directly, right? So there were four things we talked about. Infrastructure, all these new technologies require an infrastructure that does not exist today. Economics. Today, they all cost more than diesel solution. And so that is why the IRA incentives to help offset that are really critical to help drive adoption, and then we believe that'll drive scale up and bring costs down. Third is just the customer acceptance and ability to do the job. Some of them don't have the durability, don't have the range, don't have the, the power capability. And then lastly, it is regulation and incentives.
That's kind of the enabler to help push the first three along and create enough certainty in the market that that will happen. I'll just say that the big challenge is the infrastructure. While there is IRA and other things, the infrastructure is going slower. And so it's really hard for customers to adopt without infrastructure. And even, you know, for example, some of the big customers that I've talked to that have sustainability goals are running BEV trucks and want to grow that population. It's a multi-year investment with the utility company to put in the power. This is not - I just bought my first hybrid car, actually, and I can plug it into my-- If I'm willing to be patient, I could plug it into the outlet in my garage to charge it.
When you buy an electric bus and truck, you do not plug in it into the wall. So it takes a significant investment in, by the utilities to make that available to customers. But, Amy, you can maybe add some more. I think you checked your color. No, well said.
Thank you. Go to Rob.
Hi, Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research. Thank you. I had two, if I can. Just a clarification on EPA 2027, the opportunity. Do you guys have California 2024 engines in the market? And is that an indication of what kind of price premium, content premium there is for you? How do we sort of think about quantifying that opportunity?
Yeah, well, I'll take a swing at it, and then if anybody wants to add in. We do have engines in the market for 2024, in California. Today, it's primarily the natural gas engines, the 9-liter natural gas, and then in 2026, we'll have an octane or gasoline 7-liter that also into the market, and then later this year, you have the 15-liter natural gas, all for California. It will be different in 2027. 2027 will be a different NOx emissions level with a different warranty level, and so there is some different content that would go in. We haven't said exactly how much that content, but there's going to be additional aftertreatment. We're working in conjunction.
There'll be additional components, both in the aftertreatment and engine system, and then an additional warranty to meet the 0.035 NOx mandates that'll be in 2027. In between now and then, California's market is a difficult one that only has a few options. And so I think the industry as a whole is working through that right now.
Okay, that's interesting. Thank you. The other questions are on power gen. I'd love to hear, I mean, it's a dynamic environment, the data centers now. There's a bit of a dynamic where, you know, in the past, maybe backup power isn't the highest utilization, highest parts consumption, maybe not highest profit, I'm not sure, for you guys. And data centers are going to demand just a massive amount of backup engines. So are you having conversations with customers around that sort of microgrid, around using those engines more often than in the past to support the grid or balance out? I'm just curious what those conversations are like.
If you could talk to us, are the biggest hyperscale data centers still going to use reciprocating diesel, not gas, engines for backup, or does it get too big for you to put hundreds of them there? Thank you.
Yeah, that's a lot of questions. So first of all, in the data center application space, there is a lot of equipment that goes alongside that. We call that the balance of plant. That's about 50% more revenue than the original sale, and that all sits in the Distribution business, and Bonnie's teams install and operate and do maintenance and all of those things. Parts is generally less in a data center application than it would be in, say, a heavy mine application. Like in mining, we're 4x rebuilding those engines, also done in the Distribution business. But in the power gen space, really what you're doing is exercising those generators like once a week, once every two weeks, and so they're not consumers there. But most of that is on the front end in terms of the installation.
In terms of the hyperscalers, they are still quoting liquid fuel in terms of a requirement for backup power, because the reality is when the grid goes down, their business stops if there is not another option for fuel or for, for power, I should say. And today, the most efficient use is still liquid fuel in the form of diesel.
I think Rob was asking if there's any repurposing of that excess capacity from data center customers.
Some.
Prime power.
Yeah, some. Some feed back into the grid, some don't. It depends where you are in the world as to whether that's attractive for them, financially, based, you know, do I run it and use the diesel or, and refill it? Sometimes that's not cost-effective for them, so it depends on where you are. There's some. Thank you.
At the back.
Yes. Hi, good morning. Jerry--
Jerry's in the back.
Hey, Mark. I'm wondering if you could just expand your views on natural gas engine adoption. You had highlighted 8% opportunity over time. How long is it gonna take to get there? And then, you know, now that hydrogen internal combustion engine is just broadly accepted as zero emissions, what's your level of optimism on that technology path versus fuel cell, and is it fair to think that that's a better outcome from a Cummins profit per unit standpoint than fuel cell if the market moves in that direction?
Why don't you start, and then I'll add, Brett?
So I'll start. Yeah, we, we've talked about an 8% market share. You know, today, natural gas is about 4%-5% of the market, and those who use it when you go out on the market are typically those that have a natural gas ecosystem. So they're either refuse haulers who are generating their own gas and use it as renewable fuel, or they're people like UPS and others that have installed natural gas filling stations, and it's a little bit more point to point, and a small ecosystem. What the 15-liter does is it allows now line haul or long distance trucking to be able to utilize natural gas, and so that's where we think the expansion opportunity lies.
And so we do think that high single digits is possible because you're essentially expanding the market to another few hundred thousand vehicles that otherwise couldn't have used that in a very sustainable way that helps that end customer make money. And so we would say that would happen before the end of the decade. It obviously doesn't start until we start selling them, which actually starts this month. But we'll continue to build that and give you more potential implications in the market. But it does provide a zero CO2 option for those who are in heavy duty trucking. And that's what's attractive, particularly those customers who are driven by ESG targets and others. The second would be the hydrogen engine. And essentially, this is part of the HELM platform.
The base idea is it's the same 15-liter engine with three different fuel variants now. You'd have a natural gas, you'd have a diesel, and then you'd have the potential for hydrogen. Hydrogen would obviously come with some differences in the architecture. John would laugh that I'm just saying it's some. There's fairly major technological advancements there, and particularly in the fuel delivery system. But if you have it integrated in that chassis in a natural gas setting, it's not a huge leap then to have the hydrogen integrated. So that really, we think, is the advantage of adoption, whereby it's already integrated, but again, a little bit like analogous to natural gas. You're gonna need to have the hydrogen investments and ability to refuel. And so that's what will keep hydrogen back.
Likewise, either fuel cell or ICE engine would be that you'll need hydrogen available in the market and/or you're investing in it yourself. But we do see good potential for that as you look at the later part of the decade.
So the infrastructure has to build out for both natural gas and hydrogen. That's why we're partnering with Chevron and others to help enable that adoption. But there's a couple of things that I want you all to realize has happened since two years ago. So as I said, the infrastructure generally is going slower, and the regulations have gotten actually more ambitious from a CO2 reduction perspective in Europe and in the U.S., with Greenhouse Gas Phase III that comes in in 2030. And those regulations are now accepting hydrogen engines as a zero-carbon solution. So that has made more interest in hydrogen engines. You still need the infrastructure, but otherwise, from a cost, durability, confidence in that engine-based solution, customers are quite interested in that.
So that has made that solution, and some of the pushout that Amy talked about in fuel cells is because of that dynamic. And that is also the reason that regulatory conflict, if you will, with the infrastructure availability, is why we believe hybrid may be a more attractive solution as we get late in this decade in Europe and U.S. and into the 2030s.
Thank you. Can I ask, Mark, in your slides, you laid out the cycle-over-cycle earnings growth. You know, every time there's an emission cycle is when you tend to have the biggest step change increase in earnings power. So as we think about the 2030 targets, is it fair to think about the opportunity in 2027 with additional content as being a major step forward on that margin framework that you laid out to 2030 versus today?
I think that that's definitely gonna be a positive contributor in addition to the, you know, passing the peak of the investment. I think what's different this cycle is that we've got more momentum in Power Systems where we were really flattish, so that should add more ammunition to the performance. Probably a poor choice of words, but that gives us more momentum there. And then again, we've been increasing the net investment, mostly represented by earnings losses, not massive capital investments so far in Accelera. And so that will be another string to the bow. We will go through a period of investment through the joint venture on the cell production, but overall, all of those things should help. And then, of course, we've our market share has been increasing in a number of markets for some time.
That's building up that parts annuity business, which we're gonna benefit from in the Distribution business. So all of those, but of course, we're looking where we introduce more value to the market, that's an opportunity. There is some uncertainty. Brett's much better qualified to talk to me about that. There is some uncertainty around exactly what's gonna happen to demand through 2027, and that's one of the reasons, hey, Steve, thanks. I think as you acknowledged the--w ell, no, it was you acknowledged the comparability, so we wanted to do that for transparency. We'd like to give you a midpoint as well. There's just a lot of uncertainty about exactly so rather than try and guess on what the demand's gonna be in that midpoint, we'll try to look through this transition to give you a more sustainable margin profile in 2030. So thanks.
Tim?
Great, thank you. Maybe two for Bonnie. First is the Distribution business has been on quite a journey in terms of improving margins. And you know, my sense is after the consolidation in North America, there was maybe some back-end investment that needed to occur, just as you kind of brought in all the distributors, but then to go back and kind of bring them all into one platform. Where are you in terms of along that actual path, in terms of the necessary reinvestment back in to bring them all into to scale, and just what that means in terms of, you know, future profitability?
Okay. Yeah, we definitely have improved profitability significantly. Actually, I can thank my predecessor in North America, for that, a lot of that great work. We are still on a journey, from an ERP systems, capability perspective and, process, consistency. So we have more opportunity to drive, improvement in our, operating profit as we grow. So we, I would say, are still on a three-five-year journey globally to assess our, process and systems capability and modestly invest in, in upgrading that capability while growing the business and improving our profitability.
Got it. Okay, maybe from a top-line perspective, just all the discussions we've had around power gen, and obviously, there's multiple pieces within Distribution, but that's a very fairly sizable piece. How does this, all the discussions around data centers and just utility and power demand globally, how does that change the, or does it change, the kind of the top-line growth potential for your business?
We do actually see significant growth potential. As Jenny mentioned, the balance of plant, the installation, and the maintenance agreements that go into place are a significant value driver for us. And so we do see the data center market as one of the key drivers. We also see mining continuing to be strong for us, and as our core business continues to grow, continuing to see that annuity on aftermarket parts. So we definitely see growth out to 2030, consistent with the growth that we've seen over the last several years.
Jenny, you might just add, like, on it, how important this Distribution is to winning this data center business. Like, you actually can't play.
You can't. It's actually, it's incredibly critical, particularly with the global hyperscalers. They expect to have a standard offering that's applied anywhere in the world. We are the only player that can do that consistently because we have ownership in the channel, and that we own both the installation and the capability in both the product and in the aftermarket and the service of that equipment, so it's essential.
Is that different than a, "I'm going to sign an agreement with Caterpillar, and then I'm going to do it individually through all the dealers," or are they?
Yes.
Signed? Okay.
Yeah. Fundamentally, we don't have to go to a dealer network to negotiate with global hyperscalers. Because we have full ownership there, we can build that into how we quote and the services that we offer.
Let's go over here, and then we'll come back to Rob.
Want to make sure Colleen gets some exercise.
Yeah.
Hi, my name is John Zhang from Carnegie Management. You guys spoke a lot about data center opportunities. What's your view on the semi foundry business? There's been a lot of geopolitical concerns, greater demand for chip manufacturing in the U.S. over the next couple of years. So, the numbers you gave us for data center, does that include your opportunity with the foundry business customers?
Yeah. Yeah, I'll have a start at that, but yes, it does. Predominantly, the core engine platform technology is consistent across the Power Systems business and applied across the range, whether that's data centers or in mining or other places. We see pretty steady growth in the mine sites, for sure, and we see that because, you know, it's taking a lot more use of the product to extract. And so we see that across the world. We see it in China, we see that in LatAm, we see that in Africa, everywhere. And so, yeah, that's all in those numbers.
Just a follow-up on just recent tariffs on Chinese EVs. Do you see any, you know, payback from, from the other side of that, from this?
Well, certainly our joint venture investment in manufacturing a battery cell here in North America is only strengthened by some of those tariff changes that we're seeing going in place. And I haven't seen all the details. My expectation, given that some of the way they've scaled those tariffs, is that it'll make sure that if you're still doing some supply chain material import in, the tariff on that, compared to a complete cell, compared to a complete pack, compared to a complete vehicle, right? There's a tiering of that. Now, our goal in the JV is also to localize the supply chain, but today, that supply chain doesn't exist. It's a little bit like chips, your question on chips, right?
It's not. There's not been that investment here, so there's a focused effort on bringing that investment and the capability here and incenting purchase, local purchase. And so our strategy is really similar to what we've done in our core business, is to manufacture, you know, largely have a supply chain that's in the regions where the customer is. And then that does still give us some resilience if we have any disruptions to leverage our global footprint to support other parts of the world.
Thank you.
Hi, Rob Wertheimer again, Melius Research. A bit of a strategic question. You've mentioned the sort of slower rollout of infrastructure around clean tech, which is no real surprise, and it's a challenge. You guys are in a reasonably good position, just given the cash flow and the, you know, everything you have, which you know. How much time do you spend evaluating all the kind of startups that have fallen to the wayside, new technologies in clean tech, new things pop up? You know, how, how do you think about that? Should we think about Cummins making opportunistic investments or comfortable with the portfolio you have? Maybe you could talk about that. Thank you.
Well, feel free to sit with Jeff Wiltrout on lunch because he gets a lot of calls from those. And, you know, what I would just say, and Amy, you feel free to add, is that, you know, we have a lot—we see a lot of opportunity to grow with organic investment, right? And we really feel like we've positioned ourselves well in recent years for our strategy and that organic growth profile. There may be some selective things where we think either, you know, microgrid strategy, we determine that it makes sense to do some inorganic investment or some tuck-ins.
But, you know, we are very, we have very clear guidelines on how we think about that and whether or not we invest, and don't see it being critical to deliver the strategy and, and some of the, the financial expectations that we laid out for you.
You have to be careful between assets and liabilities. That's one of the challenges in evaluating commitments made to the market and things like that.
I would just add that, in general, this transition going slower helps us on both sides, not just the growth that Brett sees, but it helps us because of that strong balance sheet, as you said. You know, combine that with the disciplined approach we're trying to take, really pacing and moderating between these technologies. You know, it gives us the staying power, and then, you know, when big holes are left, and you know, I don't wanna point to any examples, but there's some examples of big holes that then the market needs to fill it, and maybe one of their competitors bought that player or something.
You know, so everything changes, and it gives us short-term opportunities as well as, you know, we look at the M&A side of it, but more often, a lot of times we're seeing, like Mark said, that the liabilities are huge. There's a hole in there. We have something that can fill the hole, and it's more of an opportunistic play to get a foot in the door.
Yes, Andrew.
Thank you, Jenny. Just wanted to go back to, you know, the discussion around power generation. Maybe if you could unpack a little bit more, just the competitive dynamic. You mentioned some of the, you know, go-to-market differences that give you an advantage there. But could you just kind of think about, given the growth that we're seeing, I think the implications of your guide or, your outlook for 2030 has, market share just expanding, you know, several kind of hundred basis points. But, yeah, just could you give us the lay of the land of what that market, competitiveness looks like? You know, how Cummins wins in that?
Yeah. So as I mentioned, it's a pretty tough environment between the customer expectations and then your ability to place the product into the market. There's very few competitors. They're the traditional ones that you would expect to see. Cat and MTU are typically there alongside us. And, you know, we feel like we're in a good spot in terms of where we are and what we offer to that market.
All right. Good point.
Yeah, so from a regulatory perspective, the most stringent regulatory market for power generation is in India. That launched CPCB IV+ emissions at the back end of last year and into this year, and that will continue to be the most regulated. As we are in other parts of the world, we've got a mixture of medium regulation and then almost no regulation in some areas. And so we'll be able to harness that capability that we've developed in India to service other markets as regulations move.
Back over here.
Steve?
Can we just touch on China a little bit? We haven't talked about that yet. What is your view, sort of, through 2030? Do we just kind of have to wait for the market to come back? Are there some new niches, products, share opportunities, margin opportunities, just anything to call out?
Yeah. So when we look at China, you know, we continue to just see slow recovery, really replacement demand, and the content story continues to very much be true. The share growth story continues to be an opportunity for us. We've launched new products in there into the market. Of course, you've got the Eaton Cummins joint venture looking at, you know, the components that we've added to our portfolio and how we grow in China. That said, you know, what is the long-term, what's the economy gonna look like over time? Are we gonna ever see another super cycle in China? You know, we're projecting kind of moderate market growth and moderate growth in our position in the market going forward for China, and then really looking at how we do local for local as much as possible.
Do you want to comment, Jenny?
Yeah, because your business does have some.
We have a little bit of a different situation in China in the sense that our markets there are growing and continue to grow, and we are not in a depressed state or in any shape or form in China. Because of the rise of AI, particularly, we're seeing our power generation business have some of its best years.
Okay, we've got one, time for one last question. Yeah. Sorry, I can't see your name tag.
Tami. Tami Zakaria.
Tami .
Thank you so much. The base, or core business is expected to grow, call it, about 4% annually through 2030. How much of that is price, versus volume? Essentially, do you expect an acceleration in pricing versus what we have seen over the last few years because new products are launching?
What I would say is, yes, typically, as Brett highlighted, when there's a significant technology change, then that yields more content, which is another word, price to go along with the other content. I think in the aftermarket business, which sort of touches on many of our businesses, but primarily, lands in the Distribution segment, there's a little bit more different dynamics where maybe less barriers to more consistent pricing increases. I wouldn't look for like a landslide of margin improvement, but again, those emissions changes offer us that chance to add more value and step up some, particularly engine and component segments. Thank you.
Well, thanks, everybody. That concludes the Q&A section. We'll be available for lunch. Really appreciate you taking the time out. Great to see you again, and, yeah, have a great day.