Good morning. Welcome to Cummins 2026 Analyst Day. I'm Chris Clulow, Executive Director of Investor Relations. We have an exciting event planned for you today, and we're glad you're with us. We'll begin today with a presentation from our Chair and Chief Executive Officer, Jennifer Rumsey, followed thereafter with presentations from Brett Merritt, who leads our Engine Business, and Jenny Bush, who leads our Power Systems Business. To end the presentation portion of our Analyst Day, you'll hear from Mark Smith, our Chief Financial Officer. After our presentations, we'll take a short break, and then we'll come back together to answer any questions you may have. In addition to Jennifer, Brett, Jenny, and Mark, our Q&A panel will also include Amy Davis, who leads our Components business and Accelera, and Shon Wright, who leads our Distribution Business.
Following our event today, we will invite you to join us for lunch just outside these doors, where we look forward to engaging with you further. Before we begin, please note that today's presentation will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties, as well as certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to GAAP, along with additional information regarding risks and uncertainties, are included in the appendix of this presentation and in our SEC filings available in the investor relations section of cummins.com. A replay of today's webcast and the presentation slides will also be available on our investor relations website shortly after the event. Again, thank you for joining us. We look forward to a great day with you.
With that, I'm pleased to turn it over to our Chair and Chief Executive Officer, Jennifer Rumsey, to walk us through how Cummins is building on its strengths and raising the bar once again.
The world doesn't slow down for anyone. The business that thrive are the ones built to move with it. Dependable, innovative, and ready for whatever comes next. That's why Cummins has always been a trusted partner, delivering real value and built to grow in a changing world. This is the power of Cummins. Welcome to our 2026 Analyst Day.
Good morning, everyone. As Chris Clulow said, welcome to Cummins Analyst Day 2026. Whether you're joining us here in person or online, we're really glad you're with us. This is my fourth year as CEO and my 27th year with Cummins. During that time, I've seen the company navigate multiple cycles, changing regulation, new technologies, and real complexity. What has stood out for me is not just what we do, it's how we do things at Cummins. Cummins has endured over time because of our global footprint, the breadth and strength of our portfolio, and the deep partnerships with our customers that we've built over many decades. We bring application expertise and experienced leaders that know how to navigate with discipline and ensure that we're delivering to the needs of our customers and all of our stakeholders every day. That is the power of Cummins.
These past two years have tested that discipline. Supply chain disruptions, policy changes, uneven technology adoption. They've created pressure across industries. We did not step back from that complexity. We worked through it, leaning into the strength of our people, teams, and partnerships. As a result, Cummins is in a stronger position today. We have a more diverse portfolio, sharper focus on our execution, and are better positioned for the future. This morning, I look forward to showing you why we have confidence and where Cummins is today, and why we believe we're well-positioned going forward. There'll be three clear takeaways for you from our presentations today. First, our global presence, broad portfolio, trusted partnerships, and experienced people position Cummins to win. We operate across applications and regions in ways our customers rely on, and it allows us to perform through a variety of market conditions.
Second, we are investing and executing with discipline. We're strengthening the parts of our portfolio that are working, expanding where demand is real, and being deliberate on decisions we're making where markets are still developing. This shows up in how we allocate capital and also how we execute day to day. Third, we're delivering record performance and raising our 2030 targets. What we see today gives us confidence in setting even higher expectations for the future. Everything you'll hear today from me, Brett, Jenny, and Mark will tie back to these three points and show how we are increasing value over time. Since 2024, we've strengthened our position despite market shifts that have occurred. In 2025, we delivered $33.7 billion in revenue and a record 17.4% EBITDA.
Importantly, we achieved our prior 2030 margin target early, even in the midst of a North America truck down cycle, a time where that would historically have tested our margins. Ours held. That was driven by performance across our diversified portfolio, including strength in Power Systems and Distribution Business, and consistent execution across the company. Two years ago, we talked to you about the growing role and long-term growth we expected in power generation driven by growth in data centers. That demand, since that time, has continued to strengthen and grow, and we are investing to meet it. We've doubled the capacity of our large gensets and delivered that early.
We continue to see strong demand in order intake, and we're investing responsibly to beat that. At the same time, we've seen slower adoption of zero-emissions technologies, and we're responding with discipline and accelerant, focusing where adoptions and economics are clear.
In particular, e-mobility, where we are deployed today with most major OEMs and have logged more than 1.5 million miles on our components globally. As a result, Cummins is better positioned today. We have stronger earnings and greater confidence in our ability to execute through the cycles. Building on that progress, we're pleased to share that we are raising our 2030 targets. We now expect revenue to be in the range of $45 billion-$50 billion and EBITDA to exceed 20%. Just to remind you, this is an increase from our previous targets of $43 billion-$48 billion in revenue and 17%-18% margin. In 2025, we delivered improved operational execution across every segment of Cummins.
That execution plus stronger outlook in power generation and other growth drivers for our business, including continued content additions in engines and components, gives us confidence that earnings profile will continue to strengthen. We're less reliant today on a single market, which enables us to drive more consistency and further earnings potential. You'll hear more about this throughout the morning. Over 107 years, Cummins has built a global presence that continues to be a key driver of our performance. In a world that's increasingly complex with geopolitical and supply chain uncertainty and change, increased localized requirements, it makes this global presence more important now than ever. We operate across more than 190 countries globally, and more important than that, we have more than 50 years of experience and deep local capability in key regions, including Europe, India, China, and Mexico.
That includes local engineering, manufacturing, and service capabilities close to where our customers operate. That local execution, supported by our global scale, strengthens our position in key markets, including our components, engines, integrated powertrain systems, and standby power. Building on this strength is our global reach of our distribution network, which is the largest and most extensive in our peer group. It's something that few can match and none can replicate at the scale we have at Cummins. Today, Cummins has more than 640 distributors and more than 13,000 certified dealers around the world. That drives uptime, trust, and long-term loyalty from our customers. Our installed base of engines, components, and genset solutions continues to grow. Today, the Distribution Business Unit is our largest segment, delivering $12.4 billion in revenue in 2025.
It plays a central role in supporting our customers across the lifecycle from the initial sale through decades of service and support that exists on our products beyond that initial sale. It's this combination of global scale, regional strength, and local execution and support that gives Cummins a key competitive advantage. At the core of our strategy is our diverse portfolio, and this is designed to meet our customers' needs today while driving long-term growth for Cummins. What distinguishes Cummins is the breadth of our portfolio and how we invest to strengthen it both today in creating customer value and positioning Cummins for the future. One clear example of that is with our HELM platforms. Brett, of course, will talk a lot more about those platforms, but we've continued to invest in diesel solutions.
Our platforms, including the B, X10, and X15, that will be ready to meet future regulatory requirements but also bring the most efficient, flexible engine platforms in the industry, enabling our customers to transition to alternate fuels when they're ready, and preserving the performance and durability expectations that our customers count on Cummins for. We're also advancing our power generation position. We'll continue to make targeted investments to support the strong data center demand and our customers' evolving requirements. That will include further expanding capacity in our existing global facilities and leveraging the integrated model that we have between the Power Systems Business and the Distribution Business. Our customers are increasingly looking for us to bring broader system solutions for backup power, where we're strong today, and also solutions that can meet their on-site prime power needs when the grid is unreliable or unavailable.
I know you're all looking forward to hearing more from Jenny on exactly what that means. We're making other investments to advance our technology position and bring value to our customers and grow our business over time. That includes targeted investments across bridge solutions like natural gas and hybrid, as well as zero-emissions technologies where customer demand is the strongest. Here we're prioritizing scalable platforms with clear paths to returns. We're focusing on the applications that leverage our global reach, component integration, and system know-how, while pacing investment with adoption to support long-term growth and customer value. Additionally, we're investing in digital and AI-enabled solutions that can use data from our large installed base, as well as our own technical knowledge to improve efficiency, safety, and uptime for our customers. One example of that is how we're using AI-enabled remote diagnostics.
This helps our customers diagnose an issue, come into the shop, and ensure that we can service and get them back on the road faster, reducing their downtime. Taking all of this together, our disciplined capital allocation strengthens our already strong leadership position and allows us to grow and serve our customers over time. Our strategy works because of our deep, long-standing customer partnerships, where our customers operate. You can see that these relationships span a variety of big truck OEMs as well as off-highway OEMs, and our data center hyperscaler and co-locator customers. The common thread across these customer partnerships is trust. Trust built on leading performance, uptime, and the support that we can bring where our customers are to help them operate and grow. In on-highway, we have OEM partnerships like Traton, Daimler, Stellantis, and PACCAR that are long-standing.
For example, PACCAR has been a partner of Cummins for 80 years. They remain our largest customer today, a testament to the strength of that partnership and our ability to bring value to them. We also partner directly with fleets and end users, ensuring that we understand how to help them maximize uptime, get the best total cost of ownership, and deliver solutions that meet the needs of their real-world applications. In industrial and off-highway applications, we have partnerships like Komatsu and XCMG that also span decades and continue to expand into new technologies and new applications. We're engaging with all of these customers, both at a system level as well as in components and in engines and integrated capabilities.
Partnering with a focus on creating a win-win for Cummins and for our customers, rooted, as I said, in that trust, deep expertise, global presence, and distribution and service network to support their growing needs. It's our people that turn all of these strengths into performance. What we do would not be possible without our nearly 68,000 employees around the world with deep expertise and shared values. That starts with experienced leaders and skilled teams. Cummins makes focused investments to grow leaders that are strong individually and in how they lead and work with teams. This has been a differentiator for us as these leaders have guided the company and our customers through complexity and change, driving strategic direction and disciplined execution over time. Our teams bring deep application expertise. They work closely with customers to deliver innovation and dependability.
We continue to invest in our employees broadly, equipping them with skills that will be important for today and for tomorrow. That includes AI and other tools that can improve effectiveness and decision-making across our employees. I want to give you one example of how this has come together. Last year, we had more than 70 tariff policies that impacted our business. We used AI-enabled models to track and understand the impact of all of these changes. We then brought our teams together to evaluate scenarios and align on actions that we would take with our suppliers and our customers, and it really helped us deliver through that change. Together, all of these capabilities reflect our values in action and enable consistent execution and growth in a complex environment. Now let me turn to how all of this translates into growth and margin expansion through 2030.
First is our HELM platform launch, tied to the EPA 2027 North America regulations. With this launch, we'll have increased content on both the engine offering as well as the components offerings to our customers. In addition, we'll have market-leading performance and durability from these platforms. This will also move us past the peak investment period for the Engine Business Unit. Second, power generation remains a significant contributor to growth and margin expansion, driven by strong data center demand. We're continuing to make disciplined investment, expanding capacity, and looking at ways that we support our customers' mission-critical applications at scale. Third is our strength in aftermarket. We continue to have a growing installed base of engine components and gensets, and higher content as emission cycles continue. Over the life, that will continue to allow Cummins to grow revenue and expand margins through the cycles.
Fourth is a disciplined focus on Accelera investments, focusing on areas where adoptions and returns are developing and reducing our losses, leaning into e-mobility with where our pull is strongest. That position in e-mobility, combined with the actions that we've taken in recent quarters in electrolyzers and fuel cells, will allow us to reduce losses in the near term and improve the trajectory of this segment. Finally, it's a continued focus on operational excellence that will enable us to continue to improve delivery to our customers and margin expansion in our business. Here, AI is one enabler for faster decisions, higher productivity, and better execution. Combined, all of these drivers support continued growth and sustained margin expansion through to 2030, supported by the execution of the Cummins team. In summary, Cummins has strengthened its position.
We're investing with discipline, we have a stronger outlook today than when we were here 2 years ago. Our global footprint, broad portfolio, trusted partnerships, and experienced people position us to win. We are investing and executing with discipline and delivering at record levels, raising our 2030 targets. Together, this is how the strength we've built enhances our position today, reduces risk, and enables sustained growth for the future. I'll now transition to Brett. I think you're all aware that Brett is the leader of our Engine Business. What you may not be aware of is that Brett and I are both Columbus natives, born and raised in the Cummins headquarter community. He made a different choice when he left Cummins and went to my alma mater, Purdue's archrival, IU, for college.
Despite that poor decision, he's been an excellent add to the Cummins leadership team over the last 2 and a half years, and I look forward to him sharing more about how the Engine Business has strengthened the foundation to create long-term value for our customers. Thank you.
When there is no room for error, you need more than equipment. You need a partner built for the long haul, built for every job that moves the world. Cummins. Dependability delivered.
Good morning, everybody. I'm Brett Merritt, and I lead the Engine Business. More importantly, after that introduction, I'm a proud 25-plus year season ticket holder for our national champion Indiana Hoosiers. With that, the Engine Business has been at the heart of Cummins for more than 100 years. After nearly 17 years with the company and an additional 10 years in the industry, I've lived through many industry cycles. What excites me today isn't the history. It's how strong the business is right now and how well-positioned we are for the future. Our engines power some of the most critical work in the world, keeping communities safe, infrastructure moving, and economies running. This business is built around strengths, and it yields big advantages to Cummins, including technology, customer relationships, and financial performance.
Many of you know Cummins for our position in the heavy-duty trucking industry in the U.S., and that remains a critical part of our business. As you see from the slide, the Engine Business extends well beyond that. Our engines go into applications where failure is just not an option. Think about fire engines responding to wildfires across the western U.S., excavators and haul trucks building infrastructure around the world in literally any location, and school buses driving our kids to and from school. These are applications where uptime and reliability aren't just expectations. They're what drives our customers' economics and ultimately what drives their demand for Cummins products. Across all these applications, we leverage a common set of global engine platforms, which allows us to move technology and capability across regions rather than reinventing solutions market by market.
That platform approach creates global scale, and when you combine that with our presence in regions where markets and our customers operate, it becomes a real differentiator for Cummins. That's a scale that's reinforced by deep, longstanding OEM partnerships. These are not transactional relationships. They're built upon trust and technology leadership. We've been partnering with PACCAR since the '30s. We've been partnering with Komatsu since the early '60s, Tata since the early '80s, and Dongfeng since the mid-1980s, just to name a few. From humble beginnings to billions of dollar relationships. An important extension of that model is our joint ventures, particularly in India and China. On an unconsolidated basis, these JVs generated approximately $4.6 billion of additional revenue in 2025 for the Engine Business alone.
They allow us to compete at scale locally while still leveraging global platforms and technology, strengthening our market position and enhancing returns without over-concentrating capital in those markets. Our revenue is pretty balanced across on-highway, off-highway, and a growing aftermarket. That balance enables both growth and performance through cycles. This combination, global scale, strong partnerships, mission-critical applications, and a global aftermarket is the foundation for continued growth in the Engine Business. Even in a down North America market last year, we produced roughly 1.3 million engines globally, well over double our nearest competitor. That's the kind of scale that gives us purchasing leverage, manufacturing efficiency, and the ability to weather specific market downturns. What makes the scale so powerful is how we execute it regionally. We design and source globally, but we manufacture locally for the regions we serve.
That local for local model is intentional, and it's a huge advantage for Cummins. The U.S. is a great example. We build engines and aftertreatment and our components in the United States for the United States, with the strong domestic manufacturing supporting our North American customers. In an increasingly complex geopolitical environment, that gives customers confidence that supply is secure, that we're responsive, and that we're aligned with all the local requirements. We've also been investing with a clear objective, to have the most technologically advanced customer-focused engines in the market. That investment shows up in how our engines perform, and it's a key reason we've been gaining customers over time. This is an operational model that strengthens our OEM partnerships. Our partners leverage the global platforms and technology and combine that with regional content and manufacturing.
They get the scale, consistency, and engineering expertise of Cummins and the local supply. The result of all this is number 1 global positions in medium-duty truck, heavy-duty truck, bus, and off-highway. This combination, long-term regional investment, technology leadership, and strong partnerships, is what underpins our customer relationships and generates cash. The Engine Business is built to perform their cycles, and the strength you see today has been building over time. Engines remain critical to our core applications and are staying in service longer, extending the period over which they generate value, both for the customers and for Cummins. Additionally, we're adding content and winning new business across many markets. While we do expect North American truck markets to normalize, that's not really the story here. The headline is the additional content and why customers continue to choose Cummins, and how long that value will persist.
The aftermarket's the other critical piece, and it's an earnings growth story. Because we've been winning across multiple emission cycles, we now have a larger and growing population of engines in the field. That growing population is going to yield meaningful higher aftermarket revenue over time. It's also a stable revenue source, so when OEM markets start to soften, aftermarket demand continues to build. That's the power of having more engines in the field, higher content, and running longer. Our peak investment period is largely behind us. Over the past several years, we've made deliberate investments in new platforms and manufacturing capabilities. Those investments are largely complete, and they're now translating into launches, capability, and growth. Taken together, this is what drives engine performance for the long term.
Revenue driven by content and customer pull, a growing aftermarket that keeps building, and the investment to support all this already in place. Over the past two decades, Cummins has built a track record that few can match. Consistently reducing emissions while improving fuel economy at the same time. That's not easy to do. It requires deep engineering expertise, sustained investment, and the ability to execute across multiple technology cycles. You can see that pattern on the chart. As emission standards have stepped down, we've continued to drive improvements in fuel economy, which is ultimately what matters to a lot of our customers. The numbers tell the story. Since 2007, we've reduced NOx by 96%, while improving engine efficiency by 14%.
When you optimize the engine as a part of the total Cummins powertrain, which is how many of our North American customers experience it, that's an additional 8% efficiency gain on top of that. That efficiency advantage is a key reason customers continue to choose Cummins, and why we've been gaining share in many of our markets over time. We're delivering increasingly complex technology that works reliably over the broadest range of applications and duty cycles at a scale no one else can match. The 2027 platforms reset the hardware baseline and create a foundation for continued year-on-year efficiency gains beyond this transition, just as we've done in every previous cycle. To meet the EPA 2027 transition, we've invested in a core set of HELM platforms, high efficiency, low emission, multi-fuel engines designed to scale globally. These aren't one-off solutions.
They're common platforms built to serve multiple markets, applications, and fuel types. We're already seeing that product come to life with products like the X15N, which is our natural gas heavy-duty engine, available and able to be ordered today. A key part of that approach generates content expansion. As emissions requirements tighten, we're adding meaningful content at the engine level and across the broader powertrain. EPA 2027 is the first application of the HELM platforms, and there are more to come. A good example of the evolution of the HELM platforms is the movement from the L9 to the X10. The X10 moves from a legacy big bore design to a true heavy duty architecture.
In layman terms, this adds 70 additional horsepower, 400 foot-pounds of torque, it improves our oil drain interval 25,000 miles versus the current L9. Simply put, the L9 performs phenomenally well in the medium-duty market. The X10 will also be not only in the medium-duty market, but also the heavy-duty truck market across vocational, pickup, delivery, transit, coach, emergency. As you can tell, many, many applications. More capability, longer life, lower operating cost without forcing customers into a larger package. We've already announced the X10 for Mack's Granite platform. That's the first heavy-duty application, as Granite is the heavy-duty application for Mack. In fact, though, it will be available in nearly every OEM platform in North America. These platforms were engineered alongside new aftertreatment systems from the start, fully integrated solutions, not add-ons.
Combined with industry-leading power density and packaging, this allows Cummins, or allows OEMs to standardize on Cummins across more applications without trade-offs as standards tighten. Industry estimates suggest that EPA 2027 could add roughly $10,000 to the cost of a truck, and the majority of this sits in the powertrain and powertrain-related systems. That's exactly where Cummins plays. That added content shows up across our engines and our Components Business. With millions of miles of validation already behind us, this portfolio gives us a full set of compliant, scalable solutions ready to launch. It positions us to capture more content per vehicle as customers look for partners who can manage complexity and deliver these platforms. At the center of our market strategy is the product. Everything starts with this high-performing engine that I just went through. The model is definitely push-led.
That means OEMs are making it a powertrain decision. They're choosing what engine system am I going to use, and driven by technology requirements, a transition complexity, a need for a particular part of our broad portfolio. The partners are looking for another partner who can deliver these engines and execute at scale. During major transitions like EPA 2027, OEMs turn to Cummins because we can reduce risk, and we can accelerate their time to market. More and more, we're increasingly pull-led, and it's an important distinction. Here, it's the end users, the fleets, the operators, those who are running trucks who are choosing Cummins. They choose Cummins because of what they experience. They get a competitive acquisition cost, lower total cost of ownership when they're operating the engine and truck, and then a stronger resale value.
That rare combination drives a clear preference. That preference flows back to the OEMs, pulling our product into more platforms, more applications, and more OEMs. You can see the power of pull in areas like our medium-duty North America share or in engine offerings at our partners, Kenworth and Peterbilt. That reflects end-user confidence in Cummins' performance and long-term partnerships, translating into major OEM decisions. Uptime is really the third leg of this model. Our global distributors support customers and thousands of dealers globally. They must do so for the life of the product. That uptime commitment reinforces both the push and the pull. OEMs trust our support infrastructure. The end users experience the support every single day. These three elements continue to reinforce each other and create momentum.
Push, pull, and uptime together drive repeat business, platform wins, and lifecycle growth, extending the value well beyond the initial sale of the engine. Our market strategy has yielded a growing presence for Cummins. Take the North American market, where we've been introducing 200,000-plus engines per year into the market driven by high share for many, many years. This increased OEM share drives a higher population of engines rolling in the field. Today, that is at least 2.2 million active on-highway engines in the North American market alone, and that number continues to grow. Aftermarket demand increases as the engines mature, and it comes to a peak somewhere between seven and 11 years when engines reach major maintenance or rebuild cycles. As the engines move from early service into that peak window, parts intensity builds meaningfully, meaning more revenue and more parts sales.
A growing population of engines with higher content per engine running for longer, that means aftermarket revenue doesn't just hold through cycles. It keeps building. The value doesn't stop at 11 years or 15 years on the slide. Last year alone, we sold $250 million in engine and components parts built before the year 2000. These engines are still running, still being serviced, and still generating revenue, both for Cummins and our customers, well more than two decades later. Our distribution and service network supports this across the full life of the engine, keeping customers running and lowering the total cost of ownership. That network is a critical enabler of the aftermarket growth story. Looking ahead, EPA 2027 engines and components entering service will extend this dynamic well into the next decade.
More content, longer service life, a growing base of engines continue to generate value year after year. Stepping back, this is how the strategy comes together. Revenue growth is driven by things we control, we have visibility to. This is new content. These are big new customer wins, and eventually market normalization as North American truck cycles recover. Emission cycles are a major contributor. The content required for these transitions add meaningful value, both across engine and components, creating growth opportunities well beyond my business alone. At the same time, the aftermarket continues to build. Again, a growing population of engines in the field with higher content and longer service life supports increasing parts and service demand over a long period of time. That strengthens not only engines and components, but also our Distribution Business. The investment to support this is already in place.
We're ready to build more engines later this year. We're confident that the Engine Business will continue to grow revenue and improve returns over time. The foundation is strong. We have leading products, we have global scale, deep customer relationships, a growing aftermarket, and a distribution network no one else can match. This is a business built to perform through cycles, and we're just getting started with the next one. With that, I'm going to turn it over to Jenny Bush, who will take you into the Power Systems Business, where you'll see many of these same strengths in a market that's definitely accelerating. I have to admit, every now and then, I'm pretty jealous of her very large engines.
Our innovation is relentless, because our industry demands it. Where reliability matters most, when uptime is non-negotiable, count on Cummins. Power that kicks in, service that shows up, and decisions that pay off, minute after minute, year after year.
Good morning. It's great to be back. For those that don't know me, my name is Jenny Bush. I've been with Cummins for 29 years, and I started my career as an apprentice technician. Fun fact, I'm still qualified to fix most of the engines that Cummins makes today and a few that we don't. Since we last met, a lot has changed, both across our business and our markets. As you may have noticed, we've been pretty busy. Over the last 2 years, we've intentionally accelerated our performance, and this has not been about short-term gains, but been about strengthening how we operate and setting up our business for profitable and sustainable growth. It's showing up in our results. Simpler operations, stronger execution, and increased rigor across quality, delivery, and cost. Meanwhile, the markets we serve are accelerating.
Demand is shifting, and we've positioned ourselves to lead. Today, we'll share how the last two years we built a stronger foundation for our future, and what's next as we build on that momentum. I first, though, want to step back and look at what we've been doing over the past few years. As you will recall, this business serves many markets, just like Brett's, and customers. At its core, it's really about mining and power generation. We've focused on what matters most in these markets, sharpening our performance and exceeding prior targets. We've made clear choices on where we play, simplifying our product portfolio and strengthening our foundation. We've improved our performance across operations, cost, and execution, driving over 1,000 basis points improvement in margin. We've expanded our capacity, reshaping our manufacturing footprint, improving our utilization, and investing with discipline.
Since 2022, we've added 9 gigawatts of high horsepower engine and genset capacity, reaching 35 gigawatts by the end of last year. In simple terms, that's roughly doubling our 60-liter, our 78-liter, and our 95-liter engine capacity all at the same time. We've also advanced our technology leadership, investing $575 million across our product portfolio over the past 3 years. We've launched the Centum range of gensets, introducing 4 new platforms for key power generation applications, delivering higher power density, purpose-built for data centers. Today, we're announcing that we're launching a new mining engine, delivering advanced power for the 100 ton truck market, giving OEMs a market leading option in more regions worldwide, and that will be available at the beginning of next year. We've also expanded our capabilities through the acquisition of First Mode, the world's first hybrid solution for ultra class mining haulage.
Engendren, now called IEA, a large cooling technology provider, delivering even greater value through vertical integration for our power generation business. Bottom line, we're a stronger, more focused organization built to scale profitably as demand continues to grow. Vertical integration is a clear value driver for our business. It captures more system margin, improves cost and quality, and supports more resilient earnings. The capacity and technology investments I just covered only matter if they show up as customer value, and that's where vertical integration differentiates Cummins. What you see here is a Cummins genset. We design, engineer, and build every component. Owning the prime mover, and in this case, the engine, it's a distinct advantage in meeting demand at scale. From the engine to the alternator, to the radiator, to the controls and the enclosures, we own the full system.
This matters because it allows us to optimize the whole genset and not just the individual parts, driving higher reliability, faster integration, and lower total cost of ownership for our customers. We also own our distribution network globally, which allows us to deliver seamless installation, startup, and service at scale, and capture value in the balance of plant solutions. If I leave you with one thing today, remember this: Cummins is the only integrated offering in the market. When we put all of that together, operational transformation, disciplined investment, and vertical integration, the natural question is: what does that mean financially? As you can see in this slide, it shows the answer. Strong top-line growth alongside expanding margins. Power generation is our largest and fastest accelerating market, and it's the primary source of that scale and earnings growth.
Within power generation, data centers in particular are adding meaningful volume, improving utilization, and amplifying our operating leverage. Alongside that, the mining of critical minerals, particularly gold and copper, are benefiting from the same global power build-out. Although they're growing at a slower rate than data centers, that growth is still meaningfully above GDP. These drivers power our growth. Large industrial engines and aftermarket deliver a margin-rich tail, power generation provides the scale and operating leverage to fund reinvestment. Finally, our global footprint of plants, customers, and owned service channel adds resilience to our business. As Jen and Brett both mentioned earlier, our strategy is to serve locally, benefit from global scale, and lead in large industrial and power generation markets worldwide. That's the financial translation of our strategy, it sets the stage for why power generation, especially data centers, is such a critical foundation.
Now let's talk power generation, where a meaningful share of that performance is coming from. Today, 95% of our power generation business is behind the meter backup power. It's non-discretionary, an essential requirement that we've provided our customers for more than a century, and that won't change. What is changing is the pace and scale of demand. Growth is accelerating as AI and next-generation chips push higher power density and resilience requirements, fueling the fastest infrastructure build-out that we've seen in over 100 years. The U.S. and China are leading that growth, and we have leadership positions in both places. As you heard in Q1, we delivered 84% growth in China in our data center markets, giving us meaningful scale advantage as demand expands across the world.
Because we own our distribution, we can show up as one global partner for hyperscalers and co-location customers, simplifying deployment, accelerating execution, and strengthening our customer relationships. Finally, this product creates a compelling service and lifecycle opportunity, keeping us connected to our customer base, allowing us to adapt to their changing needs as the power landscape changes. To meet the accelerating demand in this space, today we are announcing an additional $450 million of investment to expand our high horsepower engine and genset capacity within our current footprint by 20 gigawatts, reaching a total of 55 gigawatts by 2030. This investment is aligned to visible customer demand and backed by disciplined capital deployment, growing revenue within data centers from $5 billion today to above $9 billion by 2030. This shows up in both our power systems and distribution businesses.
This growth is about speed, repeatability, and scale without compromising reliability. We're also strengthening our operating model, further linking manufacturing and distribution to accelerate deployment, execute locally, and deliver consistent performance across global data center builds. The result is growth that is sustainable, anchored in backup power, supported by disciplined investment, and delivered through a model that scales efficiently while creating long-term value. As we scale backup power for data centers, we also need to zoom out and look at the power landscape, because it's changing, and how it's changing is opening new opportunity for our customers and for us. In key markets, especially the U.S. and Europe, grid constraints are intensifying while advancements in chip technology are driving need for higher power density in data-intensive applications.
Grid-level investment in transmission and generation is still the priority, but that takes time, and many suppliers will not meet this need completely for over a decade. In the meantime, customers are looking to supplement the grid, seeking speed to power and bridge to grid solutions that allow them to move faster without sacrificing reliability. That's driving demand beyond traditional backup and towards solutions that can run more continuously. This is where our opportunity expands. We will continue to deliver standby diesel today while also providing prime power solutions where the application and the economics make sense. So far, we've covered our traditional role in power, the growing challenges of the grid, and how that's reshaping customer needs. This combination creates a meaningful opportunity to expand the scope of power we supply, building on capabilities and technologies we've already developed.
First, we're expanding how backup power is used, extending duty cycles, and adding Tier 4 certified aftertreatment that will be delivered from our Components Business. This will also enable a larger aftermarket tail, as installed equipment is not only used as standby, but also in prime and peak shaving applications. Secondly, we're integrating battery energy storage with our power generation solutions. This supports evolving customer requirements, including resiliency and dynamic load management. We're actively advancing a 5 MW BESS platform in both 50 and 60 Hz configurations, targeted at data centers and other energy storage opportunities. We currently have a pipeline of over 1.5 GW of opportunities for those installed equipments. Third, today we're announcing we're developing a new large megawatt natural gas engine and genset.
Built on our proven QSK78, it extends up to 4 megawatts of prime power, expanding our portfolio and creating a long-term aftermarket tail as utilization grows. All of this will allow us to expand our balance of plant capabilities, grid-level controls, containerized solutions, and integrated service offering. Taken together, we're evolving from a traditional backup power provider, broadening our product portfolio, deepening our customer relationships, and enabling system performance and sustainability, all while capturing more life cycle value. Today, you've seen how we've reset performance through transformation and disciplined investment, building scale and vertical integration that convert into customer value and resilient earnings. That is showing up in our numbers through stronger growth and margins, driven by a scale advantage in power generation and global data centers, reinforced by a margin-rich large industrial aftermarket tail, and supported by our global footprint that we own around the world.
As a reminder, we've covered three critical announcements today. A new engine developed for the 100-ton mining truck market, investing an additional $450 million of capacity to expand our high horsepower engines and gensets by 20 gigawatts within our current footprint, and expanding into prime power, broadening our Tier 4 solutions, integrating battery energy storage with our gensets, and launching a new natural gas engine platform. We are winning with one of the fastest-growing markets in the world, and we have an exciting future ahead of us in power systems. I'll hand it over to Mark. Fair warning, he has been smiling a lot lately. Slightly worrying. We must be doing something very right. Thank you.
Built on expertise. Framed around customer success. Designed to deliver through cycles. Proven performance. Poised to redefine the market. Power for what comes next.
Good morning. Thank you, Jenny, to you and your team for helping restore my natural sunny disposition, which hasn't always been on full display to the investment community. We all know walking in here today that we've delivered strong returns to shareholders, and I hope you leave here sensing our confidence about the prospects for much stronger financial performance and market leadership going forwards. A foundation, of course, of our strong financial performance has been this ability to improve cycle over cycle. A chart many of you will be familiar with that shows our earnings per share over successive cycles and shows our impressive track record of improvement over a long period of time.
On the left, you see our earnings per share in successive North American heavy-duty truck downturns, and on the right, you see our earnings per share in heavy-duty truck peaks. I've been here through all of those cycles, and I can honestly say, I think the scars have finally healed from some of those earlier years. Whilst our on-highway business, as you heard from Brett, remains a critical part of our business, we've also seen dramatically improved performance in other parts of our business. Let's take a look at that. If we look over the last 2 downturns from 2016 to 2025, you can see on the left we delivered $2.4 billion in EBITDA, 38% of those profits coming from Power Systems and Distribution.
Whilst the profits of most of our segments have increased significantly over those two downturns, you will see that Power Systems and Distribution total well, exactly 60% of the total in 2025. The great news is there's a lot more to come from engines and components as we go through these next round of emissions changes, and even more to come from Power Systems as well. That's really been a big driver of this overall improvement. This earnings growth and disciplined capital investment has led us to deliver top quartile return on invested capital versus our peers. Whether you look at the one, the three, or the five-year period, you see a 400 to 500 basis point improvement relative to our peer group average.
If you cast your minds back to this similar chart from 2 years ago on this very spot, you will notice that that performance advantage versus the peer group average has expanded. Of course, all that's translated into strong returns for shareholders over the 1, 3, and 5-year period. Total shareholder returns for Cummins and those invested in us have comfortably outpaced our peer group average and broader equity markets. The great news is, as you've heard, we're in a really strong position going forwards. We've got leading market positions, multiple drivers of growth. We've got this incredible track record of improving performance cycle over cycle, and the financial flexibility to continue to invest in new technology and capabilities throughout economic cycles, driven by our strong balance sheet, credit ratings, and ample liquidity.
If we look forward, those targets that Jenn laid out for you translate into 6%-9% compound annual growth rate, and that's really coming from three pillars. You've got the data center growth that Jenny just laid out. That delivers 2%-3% of the compound annual growth rate for the company overall. Content growth and some recovery in on-highway markets delivers another 2%-3%. Then all the other markets we serve, construction, mining, oil and gas, marine, ag, many more, other power generation markets, and the strong aftermarket growth that we've got ahead of us, that delivers a third tranche of 2%-3%. I appreciate my business partners keeping the math simple for me. These are numbers that I can remember and relate. We have high confidence in the numbers going forward. Let's just summarize.
Since we were here two years ago, I think the biggest evidence of the performance improvement in the company has been in our EBITDA margins. You've seen 250 basis points of margin improvement. We grew the dividend at 8% a year over the last two years. We delivered top quartile return on invested capital. As we look forward now, we're accelerating our performance. 6%-9% growth in which we've got high confidence. A further at least 250 basis points of margin improvement. We're committed to return excess capital to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and continued dividend growth. Remaining a top quartile return on invested capital company remains important to us. I'd like to close by thanking you all for joining us. It's great to see you all again today.
Hopefully, you leave here with this confidence in our targets driven by our technology, our unmatched global customer partnerships, our financial strength, and the operational improvements that we've shown across the company, and yet more to come. Thank you, and I'll turn it back to Jenn for some closing remarks.
We don't predict the future. We prepare for it, not by following trends, but by staying close to our customers, listening as a strategy, innovating intentionally toward what they need now and for the future. Powered by the experience of a team that's helped shape this industry for generations. Then. Now. This is the power of Cummins.
Thank you, Mark. Mark and I were reminiscing last night. We've both been members of the Cummins leadership team now for more than a decade, and we were reflecting back on the different Analyst Days that we've done together during that time, and the fact that we have really high amount of confidence and line of sight to what we're committing to you today for our continued profitable growth for 2030. I told you at the beginning I hoped 3 points would be clear, and I believe that we've clearly articulated these points throughout the morning. Our global presence, broad portfolio, trusted partnerships, and experienced people position Cummins to win. We are investing and executing with discipline. We delivered record levels last year, and we're raising our 2030 financial targets.
We hope that what we talked about today gets you as excited about our business and our future as we are.
We're going to take a short break and come back and do some Q&A. I really look forward to bringing not just Jenny, Brett, and Mark back to the stage, but some of our other leaders that we have here with us today to answer your questions. For me, I love the products of what Cummins does, but I take a lot of pride in leading this company because of the great team that I get to work with every day. I'm glad that you get a chance to talk to some of them during Q&A and during our lunch. With that, we're going to take a break and we'll restart at 11 o'clock. Enjoy your break.
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Okay, we're ready for some questions. Angel. We're going to have lots of time for questions. Please, don't worry.
Hi, good afternoon, or I guess good morning still. Thank you for taking my question. Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley. I have a lot of questions for each of you, but I'll try to start, I guess.
Well, let's make sure we do one.
Yeah.
Then we'll rotate. Okay? Please.
Absolutely. I'll start with the one that we're getting a little bit more, which is, Jenny, you announced a number of different capacity investments, and I think what was more notable around that is not just the natural gas side, but also even the aftertreatment, just kind of the overall expansion into prime. I was hoping you could expand a little bit more into the timing of how we should see these capacity investments coming online, the magnitude of how much of that 20 gigawatts, how that splits across the different investments, and then, importantly, how you're seeing in terms of order books today. Is this more in the future, or is there already kind of a pipeline of orders for the prime side?
I'll start with just reminding, 95% of our business today is standby. If you look out to 2030, that won't change dramatically. You'll see the prime stuff come in towards the end of the decade. The capacity investment, the $450 million that I spoke about, that's beginning to go in now. You won't see big step changes. What you'll see is a gradual increase in terms of the way that we bring that capacity online. You'll begin to see that really though in 2027 in terms of how that comes into the business.
Just to add some context on capital investment, we're increasing in the Power Systems Business. We're getting to the peak on the Engine Business, so we're not changing the framework of 3%-4% of revenue for the overall company capital. Okay.
We'll go here. Jamie?
Hi. Sorry. Jenny, just to clarify, of the incremental genset that we're adding, how much is prime? Do we have a split prime versus standby?
Yeah, we-
Sorry, go ahead.
Okay. The launch for the natural gas large engine will be in 2028, we'll start to deliver units to customers in the field and start those up in the 2028 timeframe. That will come through Shon's Business, you'll see that in both areas.
I think if the capacity is flexible.
The capacity can be used across all of our ranges. We build our natural gas and our diesel engines all on the same line, and so that's ultimately flexible in terms of how we pull that together.
The incremental content on the aftertreatment, the battery, is there a way to help us figure out the dollar amount, do you know what I mean, sort of associated with that? To Mark, I guess it doesn't sound like much of Jenny's capacity additions or whatever are really material, you know what I mean, to your longer-term targets.
So-
Sorry, one other one. Just Mark, the 20% EBITDA target is greater than? Can we elaborate on the range there? Greater, how much greater can we be above 20?
Can I?
Please.
Sorry, folks.
We'll come back to the EBITDA question, Mark. I know we shared a lot today, let me frame a couple key things that'll help you. First, we said we've gone from $3.5 billion revenue for data centers full channel last year. This year, at the midpoint of our guide, it's $5 billion. 2030 target is $9 billion, just to frame the size of data center revenue. If you look at any of our plants, we build in a lot of flexibility, different engine displacements, different markets, it's true, in Brett's engine plant, it's true in Amy's components plants, and for Jenny. In a high horsepower engine plant, they're building engines for mining, marine, oil and gas, power gen. In a genset plant, you're building for different power gen markets, obviously a lot for data centers.
Just we have flexibility in that investment is a key point. $9 billion total by 2030 for data center power gen, still heavily dependent on prime or backup power, as Jenny said. Prime will start to come in and then can build as we go out beyond 2030.
Okay.
You want to talk about margins?
Margins.
Yeah. Framework around how much work can we build around 20? Is there any way to think about it by segment?
Well, I think there's a different cadence by segment if we think about it. If you do the 20% total company EBITDA, that implies 25% plus incremental margins over time. It's not going to be linear by every business. Obviously for engine components, the next step is we get to more mature volumes with the new products, which are going to evolve through 2027, 2028. We don't know exactly what demand's going to be. That's always an important factor, certainly in the first half of 2027. Power Systems and Distribution, we should see more continuous improvement in EBITDA% over time. That's the guidance I'll give you. We didn't give individual segment guidance because it tends to get distracting. We all want to go into the minutiae of the individual numbers. The overarching story is we've done a great job of expanding margins.
The businesses all know what excellence looks like. They've got their own benchmarks. Yeah, I think we're going to see that play out over time, but we're confident in that 25% overall. Rob, then we'll go to David.
Hi. Data centers again. Jenny, how did you go about analyzing the market for prime power? There's a lot of just uncertainty around it, whether it's transitional-
Yeah
whether it even goes away by the time you get there, whether it lasts 20 years. How do you analyze that? Does that fold into your battery? Are you using the battery JV potentially in a couple, three years to do some of the buffering of data centers, and then does that fold into prime? Thank you.
I'll let Amy take the battery JV. I'll start in terms of the bigger scale market.
When we're looking at Prime, we're really looking at utility scale power, right. The reality is a data center always prefers to connect to the grid. Always. If the grid is available, they would like to do that. The reality is the grid in the U.S., 1, is massively complicated, and 2, it's old, and the infrastructure is breaking down in different states at different rates. The way that we look at that is really where will the grid catch up and where won't it? In some states you can vertically integrate power and other states you can't. Again, super complicated, that's probably we could do a whole day on that another time. If we think about unmet utility demand, by 2030, we think it's somewhere in that 20-50 gigawatts of unmet power in the U.S.
That's helped us think about the decisions that we've been making on the investment for the Prime, getting into Prime and large natural gas. Of course with data centers, it's a highly dense operation, meaning I'm not selling 1 or 2, we're selling multiples, which helps us with that business case. Amy, do you want to talk about Accelera?
Yes. Sure. We announced that the Amplify joint venture, our partners, we all agreed and aligned to not put lines in that facility and slow the investment. We looked hard at stationary energy storage as partners. Those cells are highly commoditized and available, and a lot of people were racing into that space, and it wasn't interesting to put the capital there for that. We looked at being an integrator of energy stationary storage, the real value add there is the integration that Jenny does, not packaging cells into a container. We didn't see it really as a value creator, and so the JV didn't pursue it.
You can sign me up for your grid day if you have it.
Sure.
She spent a lot of time in different parts of that.
I did.
David?
Hi, just trying to figure out the % of earnings maybe coming from the power business, but also thinking about distribution as well, the impact. Can you help us just a little bit more? I know you gave some vague color around the margin potential of distribution and power in this framework, but also I appreciate some of the investments might suppress some of the margin. I know you don't want to give segment targets, but just trying to understand the % of earnings that you feel is coming from power in 2030 would be helpful with margin color.
There's multiple factors that go into that. I think we're expecting obviously 1 of the stronger growth pipelines on the top line. We're expecting continued margin investment. I don't think we're going to take any big bathtub in margins because of these incremental investments. I think that's going to continue to grow. Of course we've got the expected step up in Engine Business and Components. Distribution has done a great job in growing year after year. I don't know, it's hard to pin down an exact %, but you're probably not looking at less than 50% of the total from Power Systems and Distribution, even when we get to stronger content story from Engines and Components.
50% of what? Just so there's no gray area.
Really big number.
No, 50% of total earnings.
Yes
I think come from the power ecosystem, power systems and distribution
Total company
combined. Yeah.
Yes.
All right. That's helpful. Thank you.
I think you all understand, but just to make sure, when we talk about aftermarket growth, there's parts from each of the product businesses that then go through and the service of that flows mostly through the Distribution Business Unit as well.
Thanks.
Jerry.
Thank you. Jerry Revich, Wells Fargo Securities. I'm wondering, Brett, if we can just talk about, I know in your business you target higher margins on every change in regulations. Can you just talk about how long you think it'll take post this rollout? Can I ask separately, regarding Accelera, if we could just talk about you've taken actions to focus the portfolio. Can we talk about by 2030, what level of investment should we be thinking about within Accelera? Thank you.
Sure. I'll take the first, and then Amy, you can take Accelera. I think components falls in with engine. During launch, 2 things will happen. 1, we're uncertain of volume, as you've seen in previous product launches because of what the market does based on the cost of the overall system or truck, and that there's usually some lag in volume uptake. The 2nd one is with launch we'll have quality accruals, and those will for sure take 18-ish months. You're not going to see full margin and EBITDA impact in our businesses until 18 months after launch. For most of our products, you're in the late 2028 before we're seeing where they are truly performing from an EBITDA perspective. I don't know if Mark, if you have anything to add there.
No, but we are getting to the point of peak investment.
Good point.
The expenses shouldn't grow at the same rate. The revenue will go up because of the content. There'll be some higher warranty accruals initially. Expenses should be more consistent. That's just talking about North America. We'll see what happens. We're having really strong, probably surprising to the upside this year in terms of China.
Yeah
earnings performance. We've got to weigh that into the overall guide. Yes, you've accurately covered the profile second half of 2028.
Accelera. We aren't giving a segment-specific 2030 target for Accelera. The way I would think about it is we made some decisions over the past really 18 months. There's a sequence of decisions that we've announced on ways we're focusing the portfolio, namely in hydrogen, where we've stepped away from some investments there and continuing to do commercial activity in the electrolyzer space. Those take some time to pull back, so we're in execution mode of commissioning some of that product, trying to complete our manufacturing. You'll see we revised our guidance to lower losses even this year, and you'll continue to see that trajectory as we execute on that, slow down the manufacturing, get out of some of that overhead, and focus our portfolio on batteries, e-axles, and traction, which all is positive gross margin business that we're in.
Gen said we have a lot of really great positions with our partner OEMs across those technologies. It's just a volume game then. When does that volume actually materialize and get the scale that we need? It's hard to predict exactly what that looks like, but you'll see a nice trajectory as we execute this over this year.
Low capital draw year-on-year loss improvement is the trend that we're aiming for.
Yep.
Okay. Steve, we'll come across.
Great. Thank you. For Jenny, could you just talk about how you came to the 4 MW size of this engine? Is that just sort of the thing you could get to market fast? Is there some technology limitation there or design? Then just in terms of competitive dynamics in the backup power side, can you just talk a little bit about that and how that's flowing through pricing and the 2%-3% growth assumption in the-
data center side? Thank you.
Yeah, I'll start with the sizing of the unit up to 4 MW. If you look around the portfolio and the footprint, there's a couple of determining factors. One is, there is an element of the product that needs to be designed and developed versus the speed to market. Definitely, that was a piece of the contributing factor on the choices. If you look at the competitive set, that's kind of the sweet spot for the node, and so making sure that it's in building blocks that make sense for the customers. Our customers give us a lot of feedback on that, and so we've consulted with a large group of them in terms of what makes sense in that area, and that's kind of why we're where we are.
In terms of pricing, I'm actually going to hand over to my friend on my right because pricing flows in a couple of places. It flows in Power Systems Business, of course, in terms of the core product, and then of course, it goes into the market, usually through our Distribution Business Unit in power generation. I'll let Shon talk a little about that.
We think about combination power generation DBUs, kind of almost dollar for dollar for a genset to sell the balance of plant where we do everything else, be it the enclosure, the tank, the radiator from that perspective. That's how we go to the market and try to extract some more pricing. We think about it kind of near to medium term, there's probably some ability to price more in that space, but the competition is tough in that space. We are the one person Jenny talked about earlier. We provide the integrated solution and one point of accountability, that gives us an advantage in the market, especially against when you think about hyperscalers like Microsoft and others prefer us in those situations.
I would say for a chunk of our business, we're dealing with customers on long-term relationships.
Right.
That doesn't mean you get an extraordinary pricing 1 minute and hugely negative pricing the next moment. It differs by different segments. What I would say is, given our capabilities, there are a very limited number of players in large engines. When you add in the scale, the service scale, outside of any particular region, you're down to a very small number of companies that can really support. Some of these companies may be domiciled here or publicly listed here, but they're investing globally and there just aren't many people. We've got to keep that in mind, team, as we're delivering our performance going forwards along with the value for the customers. Okay, KC.
Hey, KC Parker, Utah Goodman. First one was just, I know that customers don't have the primary power product yet, but you must have a sense of the aftermarket opportunity relative to the cost, and maybe you could just help us.
Yeah
think of other products in your portfolio where it would be comparable to that. Please don't say that you don't know yet because you must have an expectation. Caterpillar's in the records, you must have some idea.
On the current business, standby gen, power gen, that product is exercised once a month. It barely runs. The real value of the aftermarket tail is in service repair and rebuild. If you thought about our mining business, for example, we'd rebuild an engine 4 times its life, and that won't be dissimilar for prime application. It's all about how much it's used. If I'm peaking, I may be using it 1,000 hours a year. If I'm full on prime and I'm using it all the way through until my utility power, then I could be using it for 10,000 hours a year. By the time it gets to about 3 years old, 3, 4 years old, I'm rebuilding that particular unit and then putting it back into service.
The tail is quite compelling on prime gensets in terms of where that is. Because we own our aftermarket, because Sean delivers that in the business for us, the reality is we have that pipeline all the way through soup to nuts, which is different to anybody else in the market today.
I had a follow-on, but I don't know if you want me to get back in the queue.
Okay. Gentleman.
Thank you.
Thank you. Kyle Menges from Citigroup. I was hoping if you could expand on the new natural gas product. I understand maybe right now it's really going after this prime power opportunity for data centers, but I'm curious just how much.
other potential applications
a factor into the-
Yeah
the decision. Do you see potential in backup over time or maybe in other end markets such as oil and gas and mining?
Yeah, it's a great call out actually because, first of all, as Jen mentioned, our engines go down the same lines. Versatility of production, easy. In terms of the product itself, we focused it in on prime, but there is other use cases. It could go to standby, would need battery potentially or fast start capability to do that. That's in the future. We're not going to launch there. We're going to launch in prime, in terms of the use case. Gas compression is another obvious place in terms of at the wellhead pulling gas out of fracking sites, that types of thing. Other applications could follow. Those would be the primary, but we really focused in on the power gen side.
Yep.
Hi. Michael Feniger from Bank of America.
Hi, Mike.
Thanks for taking my question. Just on that $9 billion with data center, you guys talked a lot about, on the call, China.
Yeah.
You talked about the growth there. I am just kind of curious. We think of that $9 billion and some of this capacity expansion announcements. Is there a sense of how much of that is U.S. versus international, how that mix has kind of changed, versus where we are today and where you think that going by 2030? Just, if I could squeeze one more in on the engines, just I am kind of curious, obviously this came up on the call as well with the emissions change. When we think about the medium-duty side, there is just a lot of scenarios out there. Just how are you guys bracing for that? What should we be thinking on our side about what the scenarios are and what that would mean for you guys on engines, at least in 2027, we think about the margin ramp. Thanks, everyone.
Do you want to do the medium-duty first?
Sure. I can do the engine one.
Give her a break.
I can do the engine one first. We are bracing. That's exactly it, and we're actively seeking clarity, and I think the entire industry is, and we can't get this draft rule fast enough, to be quite honest. We're in the middle, Amy and I, a huge development for all of these platforms across components and engines. In general, we've announced that we're launching the B7.2 in January 1, 2028, and that we'll bring out other engines in 2027. We can't really go into any more detail than that scenario. What we will say is we have a huge presence in the North American market. It will be okay. We will serve this market. Our customers will have products.
Now we need those draft documents to understand what are the options, how do we work through it, and then we'll come back, I think, with more defined plans. I've continued to say this, "Hey, the next time, we'll be able to tell you," but for sure, this next time we should be able to tell you.
Very, very true.
it's coming up.
One or two.
We have engines being certified now. We have last testing. We're going through lots of engine. By the fourth quarter, we'll be making components and engines that will go into the market.
Safe to say, all our plans are communicated with customers and regulators, even in the absence of absolute specificity. We're clear what we're doing, we just need more details to finalize.
Yeah. Shall I answer the China question?
Yeah.
Okay. On the China question, on the data center growth, the data center growth really is dominated by those two locations. The U.S., I would say, is the largest part of the $9 billion. I think that's true today. I think that will continue to be true by 2030, and that's really because the U.S. infrastructure that I mentioned before. China will always be a backup market. The grid infrastructure in China is far newer than the U.S., and as a result, it's more robust and more resilient. It will always be a standby market, I think, in China. I think you'll see it's kind of like a 60/40 split, I'd say.
There's a little bit of room for somewhere else.
Little bit of room.
Yeah.
The reality is the customers in those two locations are really driving where those products go, and sometimes they land in Europe, for example. China will land a lot in Southeast Asia. Shon Wright's business there is taking care of that market, just like he's taking care of it in many places around the world.
Yep.
Right.
This is where the 50-year presence in China, the engineering and local manufacturing capability.
Right
that we have there lets us work closely with the customers there, build a product there for their needs, as we do the same thing here in the U.S. for the U.S. market.
Yeah.
Yes. Sorry, you were out of line of sight. Sorry for that.
All good. Kristen Owen from Oppenheimer. Thank you for the question. I wanted to ask about the new mining engine launch. That's been a market that we've been sort of waiting on the come for some time to recover.
If you could speak to what you're seeing in terms of demand trends there, and maybe specifically around the duty cycle, what drove that new introduction? Then just a quick follow-up on the transition from the L9 architecture to the X10, if that's unlocking any new market share opportunities for you. Thank you.
Yeah. The mining engine is 100-ton truck market, predominantly, focused in on coal for sure. Indonesia's very big in coal, for example. That market has been a little soft. The smaller minerals also utilize those trucks, those haul trucks. It's predominantly really focused in on haul truck duty cycles versus excavator or other industrial type of applications.
Tim?
Hang on.
Sure.
Go later.
For the L9.
L9
X10, it definitely opens up.
Sorry
another market. Today the L9 is very successful in the medium-duty market.
Does an incredibly good job across a variety of applications, particularly vocational in medium duty. We're now going to be able to address the heavy duty and the low end of those vocationals, whether it be waste and refuse, a lot of city trucks, a variety of others. We're pretty happy with the announcement to be included in the Granite platform of Mack. I think it's a great application for us. You will see market share growth in heavy duty via the X10.
Thanks, Tim Thein. Maybe one for Amy on Components. Obviously historically very much a growth engine for Cummins, one where you invested quite a bit of capital between Eaton and Meritor. Can you just maybe update us in terms of where you are on that kind of growth trajectory? Some of the emissions content tailwinds, maybe some of those are fading. Can you just update us in terms of where, relative to that mid-single-digit organic growth target, where Components fits within that? Thank you.
I'm so happy you asked. Components is a quiet but really positive story for the company. A big thesis when we started it was that content and technology driven by emissions would drive growth. As I look in this planning period, it's still the case. A lot of our growth in Components is driven by regulatory things that are possibly, they could move out, but they're going to happen. We know Euro 7 will happen, we know NS7 will happen. EPA 2027 in some form is going to happen. That content growth continues, both for our Engine Business, but also we do sell still and partner with our other OEMs on their engines as well. Really good underpinning there. Now, of course, we have the largest, broadest content that we've ever had now stretching all the way into transmission brakes.
Braking systems are advancing as well. That same kind of technology component is getting some regulatory drive in braking efficiency regulations and some other things that's going to help us advance technology and integrate the powertrain better to give efficiency. I think Brett's numbers said 8% of the actual fuel efficiency is coming from those other components. Partnering with our OEMs there is also good. I would say the last thing is integration, and think of it as efficiency of our footprint, of how we operate. We now have integrated our components business much more, combining some plant operations, looking at planning across, integrating our planning. That drives some margin expansion over that period at a different pace perhaps than some of the other businesses, but slow and steady.
We're going to get a step-up here in the 2027, 2028. That's important because I think if I cast my long memory back, there was a feel like content was fading with the 2010 emissions. Here we are again, there's more content to come, not just in North America. Still an important theme, and not just for the revenue, but the driver of the integrated product performance, which has served us well.
One other point I would add. We haven't focused a lot on high horsepower traditionally because the volumes are niche-y and one-off, but this is something we are looking at. We do have Tier 4 systems developed, so we can go after that in the aftermarket. We don't need to wait for some engine systems. There's some other little things that kind of come together in ways that I didn't talk about, but aftermarket is one that's also a lot of potential.
Steve, and then we'll go to Tom.
Thanks. Maybe one for you, Mark.
I was enjoying it.
I know. We're sitting here relaxing, letting the team take the questions. It's great.
Just on free cash flow, how are we thinking about that maybe as a percent of net income through the forecast period, is it still 50% return to shareholders, or any change in the way you're thinking about that?
Since we've given the target as EBITDA, if you look over time, probably about two-thirds of our EBITDA gets converted into operating cash flow for CapEx. Our CapEx should be about 3%-4% of sales. You should see cash flow grow with earnings. That's important. Our CapEx should be, I would say at the worst case, growing at a much slower rate than it has been, at the best case, starting to level off in aggregate. I think we're going to have a lot of cash flow to generate. Our bias, as you've seen, is to return capital to shareholders. I think we said at least 50% is the starting point, and we've done more in periods where we've had less things to invest in in the near term. Yes, we're obviously not looking to accumulate cash.
We're already in a very strong financially flexible position.
Maybe the follow-on for Jen is there an M&A pipeline? Is there anything on your wish list in this forecast period?
We're pretty happy with the portfolio that we have, and we're always evaluating if there's things that we can do, some smaller things to add technology and capability, where it makes sense, and it's going to generate long-term returns. There's no big things that are really in the pipeline right now. We continue to evaluate strategy even beyond 2030 and say, "What are the things we want to do organically, and are there any inorganic adds that might make sense?" It's gotten a little bit quieter than it was a few years ago on that front.
Yeah, it's always a combination of the things that moment in time you wish you had more or less of, but what's the financial consequence of trying to pursue those? Capital discipline has been a key theme of how we've operated over time. We acquired Meritor, restored all of our financial metrics, and we're in a really strong position going forwards. Tami, then we'll go back to Jerry.
Hi, good morning. This is Tammy Zakaria from JPMorgan. I'm curious, do you have any sizable prime power orders already in the backlog who are taking your natural gas engine deliveries in 2028? The reason I ask that, some of the suppliers are announcing deals that include delivery well into the future, 2020, 2030, 2031. Do you have some of that in the backlog already? If not, when do you expect to start bidding for some of those prime power type deals with hyperscalers?
Yeah, our QSK78 today addresses prime. There are prime orders and customers in the backlog, and those customers are the ones that are familiar to you guys. Yeah, absolutely, we already do prime today.
Jerry.
Thank you. Can I just follow up, Jenny, on that point? You mentioned the expectation is for 5% of the business to remain prime, which implies an incremental $200 million or so revenue for prime. Can you talk about where can that go on a multi-year basis? Obviously, it's going to be pretty early in the product life cycle in 2030. Can you just give us a sense for how much higher that can go? Then, from an installation standpoint, is it any different than installing a backup genset for your Distribution Business? What's the opportunity in distribution of installing prime power compared to what we see for backup? Thank you.
I'll take the first part of the question, then I'll hand that to Shon for the installation element. Yeah, the planning horizon is 2030, and as you noted that we're launching in 2028, so first units will go into 2028. I think, the reality for us is that if we didn't feel like it was going to grow, we probably wouldn't have done it. We do expect that there is more opportunity there. I think time will tell based on all of our adoption of AI and how the market changes over time and those types of things in terms of how big or how dominant that becomes in our product portfolio. We do a little bit of prime now, so we do understand that market.
It is very different, though, compared to the standby side of the business, and so I'll just hand over to you for installation.
Yeah, installation gets a lot more complex because different utilities, different states have different rules and regulations around that. We're well equipped to understand that, and we have, as Jen talked about earlier, we've got 640 distributor locations, and we have satellite technicians across the world to actually do that. The real upside for us will be if they're prime, then we'll go out and service those units on a regular basis, replacing parts along the way. That would be the shift that we'll see from a potential expansion of growth from a installation perspective and ultimately margin expansion as well as we think about the ability to sell parts and prime versus having a standby unit.
We would expect multiples of $200 million if successful over time.
Absolutely. Yeah. Absolutely.
Back to Angel.
Thank you. Just wanted to continue along those lines. I guess, as you think about that prime product that's already in your backlog, can you break that down a little bit more into how much of that might be related to the natural gas engine that you're developing versus the diesel engine with aftertreatment, how you're seeing that mix? More importantly, as you go to market with these products and talk to customers in the development of this, what makes these more attractive to them? Is it about speed to power? Is there something about the technology? Even how do they think about your own solutions ultimately in choosing?
I'll talk a little bit about what attracts the customer in terms of why would they entertain operating their own power. It is all about speed. The reality is that the data center market, really what that is us all adopting technology and utilizing that on our phones and all of those things. Cloud was like the beginning of that, and then AI and models and all of the stuff that happens around that is attractive, very attractive, and for those hyperscalers and colos that are producing technology. The reality is that the reason I would put natural gas gensets versus something else is about where I'm able to put those data centers. Do I have access to power? Do I have access to cable and technology to be able to then utilize that equipment?
The grid, of course, the utilities are deciding always to balance load and sharing large loads with consumers. As a result, data centers have to get in the queue as much as anybody else in terms of where they can get access to that power. Utilizing their own capability to do that gives them speed. It's really just a speed game.
We're a proven partner to these very same customers, right? We're just not selling. We're mostly selling back. That's the important factor.
Yeah, that was the point I wanted to make. Let's distinguish between partnerships and conversations with partners on their power needs and how we're going to meet those over time and even where we may do some pilot. As we launch the product in 2028, we're not taking firm orders. We're not at the stage of development at this point. Don't ask us every quarter for the next six quarters how our order board is developing on the new prime power engine solution.
Yeah
because we're not at that stage of development yet. We are at the stage of having conversations with these strategic customers on the needs and how we're going to meet them in the future.
Back to Tim.
Maybe one for Shon. When your predecessor sat in that seat, there was pressure from Jennifer's boss to get those margins to double digits, and here you are in the mid-teens. Obviously, power gen has exploded in the last 2 years. How much of that is just a function of just the volume leverage from that?
It's obviously been a good market and a hot market, so presumably there's maybe a little bit more pricing, but how much of it is a function of that versus some of the initiatives through the consolidation and other things that were underway as to what's driven this uptick? Thank you.
Yeah, you nailed it, right. There are two pieces. As data centers continue to grow, that will help our underlying profitability from a distribution business as we do these installations along the way. The other piece is we've really been on this journey of operational excellence. You talk about we've got these 640 distributor locations, part have been acquisitions, joint ventures. We've really done a good job over the cycle to really, one, bring those all under the Cummins umbrella, and two, now we're really working on how do we further integrate those different locations and drive operational excellence across via how we service, how we install a data center generator. Those are things that we're working on behind the background to continue to expand on our margins over the cycle. I think the last piece is, Brett talked about this large installed base that continues to grow.
As that installed base continues to expand, just naturally gives us an annuity that we can service, and we can support those engines throughout the world from an EBU perspective. The last piece is mining. We're 100 years of mining this year, and really from a mining perspective, we've got our technicians embedded in mines around the world, and that's another strong source of revenue for the DB. As we get more efficient in all these different areas, we continue to see margin expansion within the business.
I think we've addressed some underperforming parts of the business and trimmed our appetite in some markets. Parts of Africa, our strategy was successful. In other parts, it didn't yield the results that we had. That's been another leg. It's not just been we bought things, and it all just magically happened. There's been a lot of work and analysis.
Right.
We're excited about more margin expansion to come in distribution. Okay. Kyle.
Thanks. Kyle Menges again with Citigroup. I was hoping if you could talk a little bit about R&D spend over the next five years or so. I think it had been mentioned previously that you've been spending about $150 million per year in excess R&D to get ready for EPA 2027. I'm curious, with the medium-duty engine getting pushed out a year and then you're making more investments in new products in the power gen side, just how to think about that $150 million in excess R&D and how that might come down over time or maybe it'll still stay a bit elevated over the next few years.
Yeah, we do expect that as we get to and beyond the EPA launch, that R&D as a % of sales is going to start to come down a little bit. As you noted, we're going to continue to invest. We're increasing some of the R&D investment in power systems to support both the prime platform, the new mining platform, the hybrid work. We've got the continued need to make sure we maintain a technology leadership position and the targeted investments in engines and components. We will still be investing in R&D. You can think about that as a %, though, that that will start to step down as we get through 2027. It had gone up a little bit with that really focus we had on the EPA 2027 launch and the new platform.
Yeah. Now accelerated growth and opportunities in Power Systems. We just have to remember engineering is a good thing, right?
Thank you.
helps us deliver the value added generation in the right measure. That's what yields us the best products over time. Yes, we'll be coming off peak in the on-highway markets. Thanks, Kyle. Steve? We'll come back to David.
Steven Fisher, UBS again. This one for Brett. This may sort of incorporate a number of answers you've given already, but you made a comment that EPA 2027 is the first application for the HELM line, and there's going to be others. Can you just elaborate on what you mean by others? Was that talking about mining or other things, or is it different things you're envisioning in the future?
A lot of what I was talking about is the different markets in which we play. As you look towards Euro 7, we'll be utilizing the HELM platforms. Likewise, BS7 in India, we'll utilize. We don't use that full portfolio everywhere. China's standards of NS 7 in the future, all of those will be built off of some parts of the HELM platforms. Additionally, off-highway will go through more emissions changes as we move on, we'll transition those products using this base philosophy and set platforms on each of those. We are bullish that over time you will still need engines, and those engines may need to run off of different fuels.
We think natural gas, biodiesel, renewable natural gas, and a variety of other spark-ignited needs will happen around the world, and that's what the HELM platforms are positioned for, is we can easily transition into those as we see the need in each market.
It's probably worth noting, we actually do have the HELM platform launched in the U.S.
We do.
with natural gas, the 15-liter natural gas. Cummins is the only commercial vehicle engine with natural gas in the U.S. You've got your nine-liter and then the 15-liter. It's not a huge market, but the economics do look favorable for certain applications and duty cycles, and depending on what happens with the price of diesel versus natural gas, could be more attractive to some of our customers.
Absolutely.
David? I just saw you put your hand up before.
Thank you. Brett, not asking you to call a truck cycle, a lot of macro uncertainties, but just to give us a little sense of a bogey how you're thinking about, say nothing dramatic comes out of the final regs.
Right
for 2027 on the heavies. Your engine will be ready for 2027. How are you thinking about the magnitude of pre-buy, what you've already seen in your order book?
Just some sense of how much you think is being pulled forward from 2027 to 2026.
Yeah, I think we've called the cycle. It will meet roughly to our plan. We do see an uplift, particularly in heavy duty in the second half of the year, and we're starting to see those orders come in now. Just to give you some anecdotal numbers, we started the year making 250, 240 engines a day for the North American market, heavy duty. By the end of June, we'll be up to 400. You are seeing that uptick in real orders going out the door, and we pretty much called that as we go. As far as next year, again, very dependent upon the standards, but if the industry philosophy of around a $10,000 a truck, we've both been through enough cycles, you will see a pause or a lag in volume in the first quarter of next year.
I don't think that can last an incredibly long time. The truck fleets are pretty old. There are some core fundamentals that will continue to drive demand. One that's against it is it's difficult right now for a lot of the fleets to make money. You have these countervailing forces that we just need to watch. I will say, clearly Q3, Q4 are going to be stronger than what Q1 will be next year.
With the B launch plans, you would expect to see pretty strong demand for the B engine out-
B engine 2027.
the current engine out through next year.
When we think about the industry capacity in the back half of the year, you hear a variety of restraints from Mexico, whatever it may be. What are you hearing on what people are asking of you? Is there a restraint of what they're asking from you due to other supply constraints? Just curious the magnitude we could see.
Today, I don't see a supply constraint, but we have all known that typically where the worry will be is a few layers back in the supply chain. We think generally we'll be okay from a Cummins perspective. We don't think we will be a constraint, and so we're ready for that demand. In general, I think one of the biggest constraints is just time. If you order a truck today, deliveries are probably three and four months out. You can't get that many more orders in in the next couple of months.
It seems the magnitude of the pre-buy isn't limited by the supply chain.
Time
it's by the EPA being this late.
For sure.
The overhang of how much you pull forward this year.
It's going to be much more limited than what we originally.
It'll be more limited than other ones.
envisioned
Like 2006 was huge.
Generally more limited than those. Yeah.
All right. Thank you.
Which is not a bad thing.
No.
We originally thought it would start second half of last year.
Okay. Rob.
If we go back a few years.
we're going to you for the last question.
Oh, the last one?
Yeah. Remember, we've got a lot of time for lunches.
Make it a good one.
No pressure, Rob.
Make it a really exciting one.
I'm sorry. Data centers again. You mentioned.
Exciting
Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research. You mentioned, or at least in your slides, you had pretty much all architectures of data centers are still using diesel backup. We've heard about different battery chemistries, different new battery technologies. Should we think about that as pretty much being one for one through the end of the decade? There's no disruption that you see that would cause diesel backup to go away?
Right
in the timeline that you see? I don't know if you can save us from making any math mistakes, but roughly what percentage of the capacity addition is embedded as being fully used in your guide? In other words, you're adding 20. I don't know if that's fully sold or not because there's a whole pricing. Do you take 3% a year or 6 or 12 or whatever?
Okay. I'll try and take the first part of the question.
It's a lot easier if we just stick to the revenue that we've given, I'll be honest with you. That's another question.
In terms of the flexibility, will diesel remain in backup? The reality on backup, diesel is the most power-dense fuel. It is the fastest fuel and engine, an engine that can take load. The reality of a backup solution for a data center is that you need to be doing that in 15 seconds. That can happen with natural gas, but you usually need a bridge, whether that's a battery, a fast start capability. You need a bigger unit versus a smaller unit. Power density, I store the fuel in diesel, I've always got it available. All of those things. Because of that, I think, the reality is that diesel will probably remain the backup of choice.
Because of the five nines reliability requirement for data centers, I don't think we envisage standby power going away from a data center set of requirements because of that five nines capability. In terms of how much is sold, we're taking orders today for 2028. We're into 2028. In some of the much bigger engines, we're in a little bit further out than that. There is, we still project to have some capacity, hence why we're adding capacity. That's why we're adding $450 million, because we see a pipeline of orders out beyond 2030, actually.
Okay. Well, that concludes.