I'm Kyle Menges. I'm the U.S. Machinery Analyst at Citi, and I'm joined by the Cummins team. To my immediate right, I've got Jeff Wiltrout from Corporate Strategy, and then Nick Arens from IR. Maybe to start, let's dig into just where the Cummins portfolio stands today. Maybe Jeff, Nick, you guys can talk a little bit about the investments you guys have made and the fuel-agnostic engine platform, gearing up for EPA 2027, and really these investments you've made to align with your Destination Zero strategy.
Yeah, I'll take that one. You know, we made the decision, going back several years ago, four or five years ago, that, you know, certainly from an engine and component business perspective or the on-highway business, we wanted to do a couple things. One was very clearly signal intent, that we thought engines, diesel engines, had a long runway, you know, and that we had an opportunity to deliver effective technology in that space and ideally to win share and be effective. You know, we started these platforms that we're talking, these HELM engine platforms, back four or five years ago and have invested heavily. It's relatively unprecedented for us to launch three new engine platforms at the same time, which is what we'll be doing when we get to the EPA regs in the coming year. You know, that's exciting.
We think it's gonna be next-generation technology. Really sets us up well for the future in terms of power density, fuel efficiency, having some fuel-agnostic capabilities to run natural gas and other fuels as needed. And so that's exciting to see the manifestation of, like I said, a strategy we set out several years ago kind of come to fruition and begin to launch, and it's now in the midst of a big execution exercise that we have to get right and get launched effectively. But we feel excited to be able to do that.
Awesome. Maybe how are you, how are you now just thinking about the push towards EV-
Yeah
... in some of your end markets, and how are you positioning yourselves for that? And, you know, maybe to go along with that, the first part of my question, how real do you think the threat is of Tesla? And they're supposed to be ramping production of their Semi, so how real is that threat as well, do you-
Yeah
... do you think?
Great question. So yeah, obviously, in parallel to that, that engine strategy I just articulated, we also felt the need and started to make investments over the last decade in zero-emissions technologies, battery electric, e-axles, and the like. And obviously, while the story on the engine one has been one of strength, the battery electric zero-emissions trend has changed pretty dramatically, certainly in the last 12 months as the regulatory dynamics have shifted. So, we still, by the way, feel like we have a good technology portfolio. We feel well-positioned. The volume dynamics are fundamentally different than we and many others predicted, you know, over the last few years in terms of what that looks like.
So for us, that's now about balancing the right pace of investment, actually ensuring while others are, you know, OEMs and other competitors are working through their own prioritization initiatives, that we actually potentially use this as a way to, to reassert ourselves as a really effective player in that space. Tesla specifically is, of course, a, a really, really good company. Has proven to be disruptive, has proven to deliver compelling technology that, that customers value and buy, so I would view them as certainly not something we would take lightly. As a general rule, battery electric heavy-duty trucks are a difficult economic total cost of ownership proposition in the absence of regulatory drivers, and so I suspect they will sell trucks. I suspect they'll be a good competitor.
I think, the extent to which they'll be a big, broad scale player in the market likely requires some economic dynamics to change to enable that to happen. But again, we watch very closely, and I know we have end-use customers that are using the technology, and yeah, something we'll of course pay close attention to.
Got it. And maybe sticking on the EV topic, just turning to the China truck market, it does seem like there's maybe been some push to EV trucks there. I am curious how real that is from your perspective and how Cummins is positioned, I mean, in China and for EV adoption in China. Is there an opportunity to compete with the e-axle there as well?
Yeah. Yeah, I'll take that one as well, Kyle. So again, just I'm sure folks know, we have a long history in China. In fact, 2025, we celebrated 50 years of our business and operations in China, so have been proud to run that and be an effective competitor across engines, across the on-highway business, across power generation and other markets. You are right that there was a significant push and mandate, especially in the heavy-duty truck market in China, which drove significant adoption increases for battery electric trucks in China in 2025. That was aimed largely at some pretty specific, discrete kind of subsets of the heavy-duty market.
For us, those are subsets that we're a little less exposed to than some of the other markets, but it was real, to the tune of over 20%, you know, trucks in China moving towards battery electric. Also a really good opportunity for us to observe very closely the operational dynamics and the economic dynamics. You know, telematics is required in China, so you get a lot of information, even if it's not your own equipment, around the economics behind the operation of battery electric trucks. So that's been insightful for us. So we've been spending a lot of time paying very close attention to the fleet experience, the technology readiness, and the economic viability of those operations in a market where you have relatively low electricity and relatively low battery prices. So many lessons we are observing and taking from that.
Can we participate? I think you need to think about that in a couple different ways. Competing directly in the battery space of a battery electric vehicle in China is, of course, quite challenging, quite difficult. You are, you are there with CATL and, and several other folks, and so for us, that feels like a stretch to be playing the battery part. We are investing in e-axle capabilities, some of the balance of the electrified powertrain system, because we do think we can compete. It's, of course, highly competitive. The return profile competing in that space in China is challenging, there's no doubt about that.
But to the whole point of kind of being in a space where this, this technology is truly being matured, developing, we think it potentially helps to inform our investments, not only in China, but beyond, to be kind of playing in that competitive crucible that is China, and that's required. So we are investing. We think we can compete effectively. But we're doing that not only so we compete in China, but also so we can feel like we can be a better competitor elsewhere as we go through the maturity stages of hybrid and battery electric technology elsewhere around the world.
Got it. I am curious, just any early insights you could share just as, as you've seen that adoption in China?
Let's say it needs to be mandated.
Okay
... customers to buy it. Right? There are things that make it economically viable, but there's a reason why those mandates exist to push the adoption at those levels. That's certainly one takeaway.
Yep. Got it. And then let's talk about EPA 2027 a little bit too. I mean, it sounds like the 35 mg standard is gonna go into place, and then there, there might be some changes, I suppose, around the outer edges with, with warranty, useful life requirements. Maybe how are you thinking about that, and what surety do you feel like you have ahead of EPA 2027 in just 10 months? And, and really, what does Cummins need to do to position themselves for a successful launch of the new engine and to have success with the, the customers and adoption, you know, come January 2027?
Yep, I'll take that one. So if you step back and we just look at what EPA 2027 originally had contemplated years ago was 35 mg NOx, and then also an extended warranty. So full circle, we do have confidence that we're moving forward with the 35 mg NOx criteria, but we do anticipate that that extended warranty comes off. When the administration reviewed this last year, what they were looking at was trying to reduce the upfront price and cost to the fleets, and the balance of that was the industry had been investing towards that 35 mg NOx. So the natural compromise was to pull back on that extended warranty, reduce the upfront price of the truck, while we also continue with that 35 mg NOx architecture. So we feel very well positioned with our architecture.
Like we said, we've been designing and developing towards that for years now. Now the real challenge that we face is, you know, we're 10 months out from launch, and with all of the uncertainty, we were gonna be launching, you know, three platforms here. You talk about suppliers, you talk about working with regulators, you talk about working with customers. Now, our time window has been shrunk. So, you know, we're full out on execution is really the primary focus. So it is helpful to have the clarity. It's just a challenging environment in a relatively short order to launch that many platforms in this short time period.
Got it. You guys think that the technology that you'll be coming out with is competitive and well-positioned in the market?
We do.
Yeah.
We do. We feel very confident. So if we, if we step back and look at what we've done, Jeff alluded to it in his opening remarks, we've made that, that platform investment in this HELM platform. We really feel confident that positions us with the right architecture for the coming decades, and something that we can continue to iterate on. So with that architecture, we feel technologically it's the right choice, but more importantly, we can also deliver value to our customers. So when we talk about performance, we talk about weight, we talk about packaging, and we talk about actual operating costs, we feel well positioned to actually deliver that to our customers and provide value, as well as meet the regulations.
Great. I mean, I think it should be a nice catalyst for the engine and components segments. Maybe talk about that, just how you think it could lift, I guess, segment pricing, margin, what potential you see there, and maybe not just in 2027, but also just as this engine platform matures and you get beyond 12 months.
Yeah, maybe I'll take the upfront on the dollar side of it, and if you-
Yeah
... wanna talk to the product lifecycle side.
Yep.
So, you know, ACT has a number out there, excluding the warranty, the price of a truck going up about $10,000, and we think that's reasonable. Most of that is gonna be in the powertrain space. So when we step back and look at that, we think that there's an average selling price uplift that we can recognize for our X15. We also see an average selling price uplift for our B Series, but it's gonna be less than that $10,000 'cause it's a smaller engine. And about two-thirds of that, we think, comes through the engine business and about one-third through the components where we sell the after, the aftertreatment. Maybe you can talk a little about product lifecycle.
Yeah, so that, that talks a little bit about the content in the, in the selling price for, for vehicle that we would intend to see. The question is, of course, now on, on margin dynamics. And for us, what we, of course, aim to do is, as we have done in the past, is, is drive this content through it, certainly at margin levels that are at, at the very, at the very least, neutral and, and moving towards accretive. Now, we think about this again through more like a multi-year time horizon. So year one of any new product launches, as I'm sure everyone knows, it tends to be a little bit more high from the cost to serve perspective. You're dealing with infant care, you're dealing with new, warranty accrual, accounting that, that is a little bit more conservative in nature.
You're, of course, dealing with any issues you may experience. And so out of the box, that may not show up as inherently margin accretive, but over time, as production stabilizes, supply chain stabilizes, we get through the warranty accrual, and that begins to stabilize, we would fully intend for that to be a nice margin opportunity, and a creative one for the engine and the components business as that content comes through, as you think through 2027, 2028, 2029, through the balance of the decade.
Got it. Maybe on R&D as well, just can you walk through just how, how much more R&D spend there's been over the last several years as you're investing in this platform? At what point does it maybe taper down as you release the new engine? Just how to think about that?
Yeah, the way we've been talking about that is if you were to step back to 2023 time frame, you would have seen our R&D, largely in the engine and components business, step up about $150 million a year-
Yeah
... for these for these platform investments, and we've worked our way through that. So when we launch into the beginning of 2027, we really anticipate the first half of 2027, you would still see some elevated levels just to support that product. But really, on the back half of 2027, you would expect that to come back off, since we've digested that platform investment. And then the key element that we need to keep in front of us is that is in a stable regulatory environment. As and when regulation shifts, that would be the one thing that could cause us to have to keep that at elevated levels. But we do see the entitlement being there, that we would drop that back down.
Great, that's helpful color. Maybe we can move on to power gen. I mean, we, we've gone 15 minutes without talking about power gen or data centers. So yeah, maybe just remind us what you're doing in that, in that area, the demand you've experienced. I mean, you're already smashing your investor day targets that you set in 2024-
Yep
... as it relates to the power gen and data center revenue. So, would be helpful to hear just, yeah, demand backdrop, how you're thinking about supply and demand as you're contemplating, yeah, new capacity as well. How far is the backlog extending?
Yeah. Yeah, so our role in the power generation data center space is, again, build off our traditional core diesel engine technology. We, we are an OEM in the gen set space and provide those gen sets to not only data centers, other backup standby power applications of, of many forms. Of course, the last couple of years, we, we have seen a huge growth in, in the power requirements for data centers. And again, important to remind us, data center customers have a huge need for redundant power beyond what you would traditionally see in a, in a more standard backup power application. So they want to make sure that they are protecting their investments in servers and, and chips and, and all the rest, and to make sure that their customers are not seeing any, any downtime.
So that has been the model we've served for, you know, the last many years, decades. The shift over the last couple of years has just simply been the magnitude of growth that we've seen that I don't think many saw coming, certainly at this level of magnitude driven by AI and some of those dynamics. So what that means for us is the opportunity to kind of take a strong leadership position in this market and sell more and do so quite profitably. And with us, as with many others serving this market, to then gauge how we invest in capacity to serve more of it and to build that out.
So we, I will note before I get a little bit more into the capacity expansions, it's also important to remember we come at this somewhat uniquely in the sense that we, of course, make the gen sets. We provide all the major subcomponents that go into those gen sets. The engine, of course, being the largest, but also we sell... We're one of the biggest suppliers of alternators, which is a big item in the bill of material of the gen set, both to Cummins gen sets and to others. We sell radiators, which is a big bill of material component, into Cummins gen sets and others. So similar to what we've done in the on-highway space, where we have engines and components, we have a similar exposure into the power gen space, which we find quite helpful.
Then, of course, we also have our own owned distribution channel, which is really important to make sure we have global consistency of service, of installation, of commissioning, of customer experience, through to some pretty challenging, discerning customers, and rightfully so. So we think in combination, that provides us a pretty unique offering, that's somewhat difficult to replicate. So from that basis, of course, what we want to do is continue to expand our presence. And what we've done over the last couple of years is to effectively double the capacity that we can offer into this market. The largest constraint being engine capacity to be able to assemble large diesel high-speed engines.
So we've been able to do that, and that exercise has been largely happening through line optimization, line balancing, basically within the existing four walls of our manufacturing footprint in the United States, in the U.K., in China, and in India, to expand and double that, in conjunction with heavy work with our supply base to enable that to happen. Excuse me. Going forward now is the next set of potential investments, is to ask ourselves, like, what is that next tranche of potential growth and capacity investments? Which would require, you know, now moving beyond into kind of either brownfield or other types of expansions, for us to kind of now unlock the next kind of tranche of growth.
That's work we're undergoing and evaluating and intend to have more to say as we work through the course of this year and our investor day in May around what we think that could offer. But excited about the growth opportunity through the decade that this has offered for us. I think we're quite a viable competitor and one we continue to grow in.
Maybe talk about just the backlog as well.
Yeah.
How far are you taking orders out there?
That's right. Yeah, thank you.
How far could you also, if you wanted to?
So right now, you know, our order board is booked certainly out through this year and through 2027. So we are now actively kind of talking to our customers to start to think about sequencing and prioritizing and taking orders out into 2028. So, that's a pretty unique position. We haven't found ourselves in that spot in many of our markets and in many places. So that's helping us one plan. It's helping us underpin the logic between the right investments for capacity and other things to extend and expand that. Once you get beyond that, of course, we do have conversation for multi-year kind of growth plans for some of the big customers we serve there.
But those tend to be a little bit more directional, conceptual, as opposed to specific kind of order board conversations. But we, we value the longer term conversations we can have to enable us to underpin our own growth plans and investments that we intend to make.
Got it. And maybe following up on that, how, how would you characterize the long-term outlook for backup power, and, and when do we hit peak demand? I mean, I guess that's the million-dollar question.
Yeah. If I knew the last question, yeah, the short answer is, I don't know.
Yeah.
I certainly what we would say is there has been, you know, no visible indication that, you know, this very, you know, kind of exciting train that's picking up speed is going to stop anytime soon. But of course, we have to be appropriately pragmatic and cautious and understand that, you know, these things never last forever, so we will hit peak demand. When is a debate. So the way we think about this is to try and not be too prescriptive and pretend that we're gonna be able to pick that perfectly, but instead to think through various scenarios for what, you know, these opportunities and growth rates could look like, for how long, to help us then inform lower risk and higher risk investments we could make into this space.
But by and large, it looks for all intents and purposes, certainly through this decade, very strong power demand and appetite. No real change in the appetite to have the level of redundancy required that drives our demand for backup power. And a diesel backup genset is a pretty elegant, economic, and operational solution to meet that need.
Yeah.
So the ingredients for us feel quite strong, quite stable, certainly through this decade. Obviously, as you get out of the 2030s, you know, things get a little bit more opaque in terms of predicting what's gonna happen. So don't know when it's gonna peak. Working to make sure our investments are to align to a few different scenarios of what it could look like to make sure we're taking advantage of, of the growth and not getting overly exposed to changing market conditions.
Yeah, and you touched on it. You are thinking about other capacity investments. Maybe, maybe touch on how you're thinking about that, not just on the backup side, but I mean, potentially making more of a play in the prime power space as well, and just how you're thinking through all of that.
Yeah. So, build on that. Fundamentally, our, our evaluation of that, and then investments and actions are anchored in our view of the market dynamics we just talked about, which is, you know, what is our perspective on that data center underlying growth rates? And we're doing this, of course, in close conjunction with, with the big hyperscalers and other big, data center players, we're fortunate to have as customers, to be able to have as clear a sense as we possibly can. So again, as we think about, ultimately what you have to believe, for us, we tend to operate in fairly big industrial level of investments that tend to require, you know, 5-10 years of solid perspective on volume and growth rates to, to see the payback for the investments you're making.
So we really think through both big, big capacity extensions, big product extensions, into prime power, other things, as requiring kind of conviction looking out 10 years, right, to, to kinda help us underpin and underwrite that. And that's, that's the work we're very actively doing, to then understand where do we feel like we have that conviction, that confidence, and then how do we think about risk-weighted adjustments and investments we could make? You know, capacity investments are a relatively low-risk investment we can make. We know how to do that. We know what that looks like. New product extensions is a, is a different level, and then there's more ambitious things as well that you could consider.
So I would say we look and evaluate at all those things, and then we continue, as a leadership team, to try and make the right decisions on a sequential basis. But with that being said, I always like to reinforce our team and others, like, our base case scenario of continuing to do what we do really well and building out some of that capacity is an attractive one, and one we're gonna have our hands full to deliver-
Yeah
... and deliver effectively. So we'll continue to evaluate those extensions, but, that'll be anchored in our view of what truly the sustained demand for power is and how we could deliver effectively into it.
I guess we'll hear more at the Investor Day in May.
Indeed.
Um-
Yes, that's right. Yeah.
Maybe one more question on this topic. What are you seeing and experiencing in the market and data center backup power from more of a competitive perspective? Seems like there's a lot of players trying to target this market.
Yep.
Just how concerned should we be on over-capacitization, and do you notice the market becoming more competitive?
Yeah, I can take that one.
Yeah.
So I think if you step back, obviously there's a nice profit pool here that's growing, and we're obviously seeing everyone trying to move into this with competing solutions similar to ours, but also other technologies as well. The way we like to talk through it, and Jeff alluded to this earlier, is if you look at, there's three elements we feel uniquely positioned, and I think Caterpillar has a similar offering as well. A, a large, high-speed diesel engine. There's only a handful of folks that have those globally. Start there. Second, second area is then going to be the relationships and the reputation in this space, right? We've been in this space for decades now. So the hyperscalers know us, they trust us. They know that our equipment's gonna show up to their project on time, that it's gonna run.
And then the third element is also that we have our distribution channel that Jeff alluded to earlier, that is going to both get that commissioned on time, but also be able to support that product if and when there were ever an issue. So we feel that that's a very compelling competitive offering that is very difficult for others to replicate. So we feel well-positioned with that, but we are watching the competitive landscape and staying very up to date with how that's evolving. And, you know, naturally, the hyperscalers are going to use that to their advantage. They're going to test edge cases, and they're going to keep us honest when it comes to things like pricing.
But at the end of the day, all of the noise in the market, if it comes back to it and you think about our growth profile, we are supply constrained, and our ability to recognize the growth that we see is really going to be on our ability to continue to expand capacity and realize the opportunity that Jeff talked about earlier.
Awesome. I think now is a good place to stop, open it up, see if there's any audience queue questions. Mm-hmm. One up here.
Hi, thanks for the time. Jeff, you mentioned that BEV trucks travel without DCO, without regulatory pull. Given that Cummins already operates with data centers, and you already have the battery energy storage business operating in the company-
Mm-hmm.
Is there an opportunity to pull some of that Amplify JV, LFP cells into a larger data center-centric offering over time?
Yeah. Yeah, there is. So again, for those folks, so Amplify is the joint venture we launched with the primary intent to be aimed at on-highway LFP cells. We did that in conjunction with PACCAR and Daimler and EVE. And so obviously, the volume profile that we built that business case on has changed somewhat since when we initially did that. And so, we do participate. We have battery energy storage solutions for power generation, kind of not the grid scale level, front-of-the-meter stuff, but behind-the-meter solutions that we offer both around the world and in the U.S. And there is the opportunity that we could potentially utilize some of the cells out of the Amplify joint venture to continue to do that.
You know, the scale that we would be talking in, in our behind-the-meter space, you know, is certainly big and interesting. But you know, those 21 GWh of cell plant would, you know, continue to require not only on-highway cells and other market dynamics for us to sustain that. So it would be a nice contributor to that, but in and of itself, doesn't inherently kind of solve. What we're trying to do is get the volume right out of that plant, which we continue to evaluate how best to do. So yep, it does offer an opportunity for us.
Just curious, how far in advance are your engines ordered, you know, before a data center project kind of breaks ground or, you know, is sort of in construction? And then do you have visibility into which specific projects the engines are being ordered for, or do you just kind of have customer-level visibility?
I would say, how far in... I mean, right now, again, we're getting things well, like years in advance from how they're thinking about, you know, these various projects they have and how they're sequencing the project management of their various data center projects. So we are seeing visibility to how they're thinking about demand. And, and so the, the orders right now come years and years in advance because they know the lead times are, are that long in terms of when they want to have things on site to enable that construction to happen, you know, 28, two years. So something to that effect. That's an inherent, you know, the inherent nature of this capacity, because that is obviously isn't the normal operating rhythm. You know, before two years ago, that's, it wasn't that long.
It was a pretty traditional kind of three months out, they would, you know, start to call us and start to tee that up. So that's a function of the capacity dynamics we're seeing play out. Your second question was, do we get kind of project-level specificity? I'll be totally honest, as we look at that far out, we certainly do at some places, 'cause again, it will be our, in many cases, our technicians, our distributors that are going out to literally install the gensets to commission them. So very clearly, we need to be sequencing folks to do that. I'll be honest with you, I don't know exactly how much in advance. It isn't necessarily that two years in advance, they say this genset's going to whatever state X, project Y versus that one.
They might, but I don't think it's quite that specific. It gets a little bit closer in before they kind of tell us, "Hey, let's aim this towards this project where we need it as first, second, or third." So I'm not an expert on exactly the timing for how that works, just to be totally honest with you. But it, we definitely know where it's going as you get closer in, because we not only deliver the genset, we go install it and commission it, so we need to be preparing resources to help do that.
Just to reiterate an earlier point, that's where having a global distribution network really provides a unique solution to these hyperscalers, because if they don't know where that genset's going, we do have that global distribution technicians that can install and commission that depending, you know, independent of where that site might be located, which is difficult to replicate.
Any other questions? All right, maybe we can switch gears a little bit, talk about the 2026 guide. Maybe, maybe starting with the margin guidance, just can we walk through how tariffs are impacting the margin guide, and what segments are being the most impacted as well?
Yeah, I mean, hopefully many of you listened to the earnings call recently, and we, we alluded to it on there. You know, fundamentally, from a price cost EBITDA dollars perspective, in 2026, we are price cost neutral and EBITDA dollars. So we want to start there and be very clear on that. We are being impacted by tariffs, so they're coming through as costs. Our mechanism is a tariff surcharge. So we're essentially getting 0% margin revenue that is diluted to our overall margin, is how we think about that. And we talked about that on the earnings call. We just put a, put a very fine point on it. That's about 50 basis points of dilution, when you look at our midpoint of our guidance, it includes 50 basis points of dilution, attributed to those particular, tariff surcharges.
So when you step back and you ask, where do those disproportionately hit? I would say there's two areas that I would call out in particular. The engine business, just naturally, given where its supply chain is coming from. We produce local for local, but it is a global supply chain feeding into those local production plants, so we are being impacted in that particular space. The other areas then are distribution space. If you think about the sheer revenue that's coming through distribution relative to some of the other segments, it's our largest revenue segment, and it also ends up being the knock-on effect of where external sales happen. So if you have a power system gen set, that may have tariffs, but that then gets passed through to distribution when we actually recognize the external sale.
So those would be the two areas that I would highlight are disproportionately getting impacted from a dilutive effect.
Got it. That's helpful. And engine and components, maybe we can talk about that a little more specifically. Just, it seems like there's an opportunity for you to get Section 232 rebates. Where are we at there, I guess, in that process? And if you do get rebates on the engine and components, how does that impact the, the surcharge? I'm assuming the surcharge will come off, margins will look better. Just maybe walk through that a little bit.
Yeah. So there's the truck proclamation that came out, and it envisions two separate elements that are important to talk through. There's the truck level rebate, and then there's the engine-specific rebate, and we are actively working with our OEM partners, as well as the government, to better understand how they envision that working. The key elements that I would call out, when you look at a truck level rebate, that is gonna be our OEM partners that are receiving that, which means we still have to negotiate. If it's an axle, as an example, we still likely have to negotiate with the OEMs to get a rebate, which is likely still that tariff surcharge. On the engine side of things, the devil will be in the details in terms of how does that play out?
Because we are much better positioned to get that directly, but how the accounting will work is exactly what we're working through to understand from the government, how they envision that rolling out, and more to come on that as we get clarity.
Got it. But then you would, if you do get the rebate, that would lower the tariff surcharge. And then, I guess, so lower top line, better margin as you get those?
It could. It's gonna matter depending on how the actual mechanics come through.
Okay.
But your understanding is clear.
Okay. Got it. And let's, let's talk about distribution, in particular, the margin guidance. I mean, just maybe just walk through the puts and takes there. I mean, you already talked through just some of what's going on there with tariff impacts. I think you also alluded to some investments you're making in distribution, and I'm curious if there's any mix impacts to call out as well, just maybe as you're selling more power gen, maybe parts engine, not as strong as power gen this year, and just maybe beyond 2026 as well. Just how should we think about incremental margins for that segment?
Sure. Yeah. I'll talk to it again. We talked the dilutive impact of tariffs, and I don't want to discount that.
Yeah.
I just want to make sure that's-
Yeah
... front and center in terms of our guidance for the year and the impacts of distribution. Let me talk to the technology investments that we're making. If you zoom out and you think about what our distribution business is, it is a global business with many, many locations. With those many locations comes many bespoke IT solutions, and what we're trying to do is consolidate many of those solutions into a single platform.
Okay.
That shows up this year in terms of more outsized investment, but we anticipate in future years that would drive more efficiencies and payback. It just doesn't happen within the year to make it, you know, a payback to keep us neutral within the year. Then the other element that I would call out within the distribution segment, it is the most diverse business in our portfolio. If you think about geography, you think about all of the different end markets that we're serving, different customers that we're serving. So there is always gonna naturally be a mix element within our distribution business, I would say. But really, it's those tariffs, it's this IT system, and there's a natural mix just by the nature of the business, is what I'd call out.
And in terms of the long-term margin potential, what I would say is, you know, we will be revisiting our 2030 guidance at Analyst Day. I think within that, you would have a better indication of kind of how we see the broader margin across the company, including distribution setting up.
Got it.
Yeah, and I'll add, I do think, yeah, we get a lot of questions, especially coming out of the fourth quarter. Like, we're quite proud, not only the strategic value the distribution business offers to what we deliver, which we've alluded to already several times, but that business has a pretty phenomenal margin expansion run rate over the last several years. So while we're still working through the guidance, I like to remind people that running a distribution business at the margins we do is, we're pretty proud of, and we think that team has earned a lot of credit in doing that. So we'll continue to work that, but it's a pretty big and significant, both strategic and financial, positive story for us, so.
Mm-hmm. All right, I'll open it up one more time for any audience questions. All right, can you-
It's about cocktail time, I think.
Yeah.
We got one. It looks like we got one here.
One. Okay.
Just back to the data center business. In terms of the length of the contract order book, at what stage and how far through are you in terms of trying to extract favorable payment terms, long-term contracts, capital commitments from these big customers, which you typically get in these constrained-
... capacity limited situations?
Yeah, of course, we have conversations with them about any number of different dynamics to, to frankly help us, you know, de-risk or feel more comfortable in some of the investments we would want to make to Canadian to serve them effectively. You know, it has not gone so far as to say that there's capital commitments associated with that or anything like that, but we, we, of course, think about how we, you know, how we-- how they can help us feel more confident in the volume and demand profile and enable us to do that. We've-- we have driven some price over the last couple of years. We have a really solid, you know, relationship with them.
And those conversations are just ongoing in terms of how we structure those contracts to make sure that we make the right investments at the right time to support them. So that varies by customer, it varies by product, I mean, it's by region. So there's a lot of variability to that, but we're in active conversations with all the major players on what that would look like, so.
All right, maybe I can sneak in one last question just to wrap things up. You do have the Investor Day coming up in a few months, so is there anything you can share on just what we should look forward to at the Investor Day? What we can expect from you and the team as far as what will be covered at the Investor Day?
Yeah, I mean, you've heard us kind of tease some of it already. I mean, the big stuff that's gonna drive our business is the balance of the decade. So if you remember that we've done this every couple of years. The last... Starting in 2022, the last couple, we've oriented and anchored around kind of our 2030 financial targets, which we set out initially in 2022 at a time when there were, let's just say, different questions about being a diesel engine, manufacturer than there are now. So, so we did that in 2022, we updated it in 2024, and we would intend to update that again in 2026, and we think that's gonna be a really positive story. So within that, there's a couple of things we'll want to highlight.
A little bit of what you were alluding to in terms of the engine components, kind of on highway commercial vehicle business, and how we think beyond just simply getting through these product launches in 2027, but the balance of the decade and some of the cyclical dynamics and margin profiles therein. Part two is, of course, the power data center space, and continue to tell more about how we're thinking through our investment choices and priorities, and what that means in terms of unlocking growth and opportunity there. Thirdly, is just the overall margin profile of the company, and this year, we are setting guidance at the midpoint of what we set as our ambition to do in 2030.
So we've been running ahead of schedule, which is, of course, a good problem to have, and for folks like you, leave you wanting, "So what's next?" And so we'll want to talk a little bit about what we think the next set of things we could do from a margin profile would be. And then lastly, not surprisingly, we're getting a lot of questions around capital allocation. When we think about investments inorganically and/or, you know, return to shareholders in the form of share repurchases, so we'd expect to address that and how we're thinking through that. So those will be the main themes to kind of talk to the next chapter of our story through the balance of the decade.
Great. Looking forward to it.
Thanks, Gulf.
Thanks, guys.
Yeah.
We'll wrap it up there.
Appreciate it.