Cimpress plc (CMPR)
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27th Annual Needham Growth Conference

Jan 14, 2025

Sean Quinn
EVP and CFO, Cimpress

Great. Why don't we get started then, and welcome everyone. Just by way of introduction, my name is Sean Quinn, the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Cimpress. I'm joined here in the front row by Meredith Burns, who is our Vice President of Investor Relations and Sustainability, and I just want to thank the Needham team for hosting us today for a great conference. I'm here today to discuss Cimpress, which is the mass customization leader for print. Just before we get started, I want to throw this safe harbor statement up. In the session today, I'm not going to be providing any updates on the December quarter, or a near-term outlook, just so that expectation's set. We're scheduled to release earnings for the December quarter in just over two weeks from now, which is on Wednesday, January 29th.

And so we'll cover those topics then. And we also have a public call, which we always do the following morning. But nonetheless, in this session, I'll make some statements about the future. And so we may be wrong about our predictions, so I just point you to our risk factors, which you can see outlined on the slide, but also detailed in our SEC filings, and we would invite you to read those. We do also have some non-GAAP metrics throughout the presentation. You can see reconciliations for all those on our IR site, relative to our reported historical results. And you can find that at ir.cimpress.com. So let me just start off with an overview.

Cimpress has a long track record of profitable growth, and that growth has really been the result of a few things, the combination of industry tailwinds, our market leadership, but also our competitive advantages, and I'll talk more about those in a little bit. The chart that you see here shows our annual revenue over the last two decades going through our last full fiscal year, fiscal 2024. You see that here in a stacked bar where the blue here represents our Vista business. You'll know that as Vistaprint, which is where the company started. The growth there has really been primarily organically during our history. Then the gray bars here show our other revenue, which has come through acquisitions. Again, I'll share a little bit more about those businesses in a moment.

But those have come through acquisition, and then we've had significant organic growth in those businesses after the date of acquisition. Altogether, that's about a 22% CAGR over the last 20 years. The blue piece of that, Vista, again, most of that being organic, has been a 18% CAGR over that same period. Just as a point of reference, our consolidated revenue for fiscal 2024 was $3.3 billion. Importantly, not only have we been able to grow, but we've delivered this growth with significant profitability and cash flow generation. Over the last 10 fiscal years, we've generated over $2.2 billion of unlevered free cash flow. Significant profitability, significant cash flow. We do take a long-term approach to our capital allocation. We have about 30% of our equity represented at the Board table. That includes our founder and chairman.

And so, there's great alignment between the way that we make decisions and the long-term interest of our investors. In terms of our offerings, just to give you a sense of that, our businesses serve, collectively, you know, millions of customers each year, over 15 million customers with a variety of products like custom marketing materials, signage, logo apparel, promotional products, packaging, labels, and so on. We also serve consumers with products like canvas prints, photo books, and in the holiday time of the year, holiday cards and similar products. That consumer part of the business becomes a little bit larger part of the business in the December quarter. Our businesses offer over 23,000 different unique products and over 300 million product variants. And you can see some of the examples on the slide here of those that I've mentioned. That's really unparalleled breadth and depth of products.

It's that depth and breadth of products and also attributes and options, all with the convenience of online ordering, that is enabled by our focus on mass customization. We are selling across all of our businesses to customers that, in general, have a need for relatively small order quantities and who have historically, because of that need for smaller order quantities, been underserved by traditional suppliers. We are leading the multi-decade shift from that traditional business model that I just referred to to print mass customization. If you look at the chart here, in the bottom left of that graph, this is where this kind of notion of mass customization is represented, where we produce small quantity orders at a cost per unit that's well below the cost-quantity trade-off curve of the traditional print industry. It goes really beyond just cost advantages.

It goes into greater value for customers through convenience and more breadth of product offering, more depth of choice, fast production and delivery times. And then our model, inherent in our model, there's just reduced obsolescence, since customers can order only in small quantities that are right for their needs. And then, by definition, those orders are produced, you know, on demand for those needs. Print mass customization leverages three main capabilities that you see listed on the right there. The first two of those capabilities are relevant for all of our customers, and that is e-commerce, which is the way that we go to market for the vast majority of our business, and then also software-driven order aggregation and production systems. So those are required no matter what. And then the third one, which is democratized design, is required to serve customers that don't have graphic design skills.

And that's most relevant in our Vista business or Vistaprint, where we have a broad offering of design capabilities to help millions of customers every year design what they need and then have that produced. More and more, our upload and print businesses also are starting to introduce design services as well. Over time, we've been able to drive continued growth by bringing this mass customization paradigm that we use to new and more complex products. And that pattern continues today, including by enabling customers to design these more complex products. And even as some of our end markets mature, like business cards or holiday cards, we have a history of creating new S curves and new product categories through investments in our customer experience and investments in production technology. And that's where actually most of our growth is coming from today in those newer categories.

In terms of the addressable market, our addressable market exceeds $100 billion across North America, Europe, and Australia, and that's just the part of the print market that we can serve with just small and medium print runs, and that's the part also that's ripe for disruption using this mass customization model. In our history, and you can see the different categories that we represent on the slide here, we started out in small format marketing materials, but today we have a very broad and deep offering across all the categories that are represented here. Not only is the market very large, but it's also extremely fragmented. There's thousands of traditional print businesses that account for more than 60% of the market in the aggregate. So the minority of this market today transacts online.

And those traditional providers, you know, you think about, like, if you were to drive around the neighborhood or town, wherever you live in, you see them, you know, local print shops, sign shops, some of them franchises, are largely subscale print providers. And as a group, those subscale print providers have been in decline for decades, ceding share to mass customization players like us. We do think that there's a long runway for continued growth from share gains, as we do expect to continue to see these market dynamics continue to change in our favor. I'll show some examples of actually just that here. Our growth and profitability really does contrast quite sharply with the state of the print industry overall, especially the state of traditional printers, like I just mentioned.

The upper left-hand chart here on the slide shows that, you know, at the same time that we've been growing significantly, referencing back to that first slide over the last decades, there's been a slow and steady decline in the number of traditional print providers. Again, you see that on the top left here. And then, the chart here at the lower left shows that the vast majority of the roughly 21,000 remaining competitors in the United States that are these traditional suppliers are very small. Over 70% of them employ fewer than 10 people, and over 90% of them employ fewer than 50. And the statistics there, that's specific to the United States, but the statistics there are very similar in Europe and elsewhere.

So there are many of these small subscale traditional suppliers, and every year we see that the number of them continues to decrease. We have over $3 billion in revenue annually. And so, you know, we're kind of the polar opposite of these subscale competitors, and that leads to some pretty obvious scale advantages. The small traditional players, like the ones that you see in the picture on the right here, still do, as I showed in the total market slide, represent the majority of the revenue in our market. And so that we think provides us a long runway for continued growth fueled by market disruption as customers shift to Cimpress's value proposition through online print, mass customization. Maybe just to talk a little bit about the capabilities and scale advantages that we use to drive that.

This is a slide that we've used a number of times in the past, so I won't, I won't go through the entirety of this slide today. I just want to share a few highlights here, which is that first and foremost, our unique combination of capabilities, each individually with scale-based advantages, is what collectively drives our success. And our scale is unmatched in our industry. We last year we had over 30 million orders that we fulfilled for customers across our businesses, and many of those orders each had multiple products in that order. So you know you think about the scale of that type of operation versus some of the folks that you know the pictures we saw on the prior slide.

Delivering that many small customer orders in a way that continuously delights customers is not easy to do, especially not easy to do in a profitable way, and so that really requires the orchestration of all the different capabilities that you see listed on the slide here. Again, each of them with some element of scale-based advantages, and it's not any one of these capabilities individually that allows us to do that, but rather the orchestration of them together that allows us to do what we do. As you see on the right here, we're continuously increasing our customer value through a flywheel in which we can create better customer value. We're then able to drive that into greater market share gains, and that's really been key to our long history of profitable growth and market disruption, and it very much is still today.

From a technology perspective, you know, I mentioned the orchestration of a number of different capabilities and that it's really the collective set of capabilities that drives our economic model. I did want to just for a moment emphasize technology and the technology behind what we do. It's been a major value driver of value creation over our history. Over the last five years or so, we've modernized the technology stack in most of our businesses and, in particular, our largest business, which is Vista or Vistaprint. That's really enabled us to accelerate our performance while leveraging some of the common technology that we have across our businesses, in particular in our mass customization platform, which has been a significant area of investment that we've made over the last seven or eight years. We undertake that centrally.

I think it's hard to understate, or sorry, overstate, just how important the modernization of our technology platforms has been. You know, with that fully in the rearview mirror, which is about two years ago that most of that work was done, we've been able to allocate all of our focus from a technology product and UX standpoint, to continuously improving the customer experience, to continuously launch new products, and that is driving the financial results that we've seen over the last, you know, six or seven quarters or so. Just to give you a sense, in terms of our reportable segments and also our geographic distribution, Vista is the largest segment that we have in terms of both revenue and profitability, but the acquired businesses that we have in these other segments do drive meaningful profits with good cash flow conversion.

Vista today is a little over a half of our revenue. It's also a significant source of profitability. As a point of reference here, you see the next two PrintBrothers and The Print Group. Those collectively make up what we call our upload and print businesses that represents about 30% of our revenue. That's a portfolio of businesses that we acquired starting in 2014, and we invested about EUR 600 million to acquire those businesses and some subsequent tuck-ins. Those businesses are all based in Europe. They've generated well over that $600 million of invested capital in free cash flow generation since the time of acquisition, and today represent about $1 billion of revenue. Last year, the cash on cash returns relative to our invested capital was 18%, and those businesses still have strong prospects for continued growth.

So that's been a great use of capital and a great collection of businesses there. And then you can see, rounding that out, National Pen and all the other businesses relatively smaller. In terms of geographical distribution, you can see on the right there that it's fairly evenly split between North America and Europe. And then there's about 4%, which is covering Australia, Brazil, and India. Turning to capital allocation, the graphs here just show our capital allocation over the last five years. At least the graph on the left is over the last five years. Just go through this briefly. If you are interested in a deeper dive here, especially if you're newer to the story, I would really encourage you to read our annual letter to investors, which is published at the end of July every year.

And our CEO writes, I think, that goes a long way to describe how we think about capital allocation and gives, I think, a quite candid overview of how we think we've done from that perspective. So I would encourage you to look at those. We also in those provide estimates of what we believe to be our underlying steady-state free cash flow, when you exclude the impact of growth investments. So I would point you to that, if you're interested in learning more there. From an organic growth perspective, we have in the past and are continuing today to invest in things like production capabilities, new product introduction, continuing to improve our customer experience, investing behind the brand and Vistaprint, technology and data and other sources of our scale advantages.

Over the past five years, you can see this, on the far left there, we estimate that we've spent a little over $750 million on organic growth investments. From an M&A perspective, I went through our largest source of, our largest use of capital from an M&A perspective, our upload and print portfolio. We're currently not allocating material capital to M&A, and there's a few reasons for that, but with the primary reason being the need and the value that can come from continued focus on what we have and our organic investments, and also when we have the opportunity, repurchasing shares given where our equity currently trades. But from an M&A perspective, we have allocated significant capital to that category over the last decade, over $1 billion over the last decade.

Then we've also allocated significant capital to share repurchases over the years. We've allocated $784 million to that category over the last five years with the repurchases that we did in fiscal 2020 and 2024. Over time, you can see the impact of our share repurchases that we've done on our share count, which has nearly been cut in half since 2011. We've repurchased 28 million shares at an average price of about $60. We expect share repurchases to continue to play a role in our capital allocation. Some financial metrics here. The top on this slide is our historical Adjusted EBITDA. Then on the bottom is our net leverage ratio. You can see here that our capital allocation to organic investments and acquisitions has influenced our profitability.

At times we've had some periods of relative intensity in our organic investment, including in 2022 and 2023. That was one of the reasons why you see EBITDA lower in those years and during that time, we were also replatforming our technology and investing pretty significantly in the talent to leverage that new technology into improved customer experiences as well. It did take about three and a half years to go through that replatforming effort in our largest business in Vista, which was, you don't really quite see that represented here, but it was a significant investment from an opportunity cost perspective and we're really seeing the benefits of that in terms of you know having a modern flexible you know modular technology stack that can allow us to move much more quickly and we're definitely yielding the benefits of that now.

In FY2024, you can see here that we delivered an all-time high of just under $470 million of Adjusted EBITDA. That was also coupled with record adjusted free cash flow that we delivered alongside mid-single-digit revenue growth. That performance, you can see at the bottom, brought our leverage down to about 3.0 x trailing twelve months' EBITDA. We did that while we were still investing significantly in important organic growth investments and also allocating relatively material capital to share repurchases. We expect to deliver further over time. Our policy is to target net leverage at or below approximately two and a half times trailing twelve months' EBITDA. We're not there yet, but we expect to continue on that path over the next years.

In terms of capital structure, we've reduced our leverage significantly, as you would have seen on the last slide. On the back of improved financial performance, which we demonstrated over the last few years here, we did issue new eight-year senior notes in September, pushing out the maturity of our previous notes. So those are out to 2032. We also have twice repriced our term loan B, once in May, once in December. It's pretty material cash interest savings that have come from that. We've received two credit rating upgrades from both S&P and Moody's over the last year. And our current corporate family or issuer rating is Ba3/BB -. Just looking ahead and then we'll open it up for questions. I noted again at the beginning that we weren't going to update on the December quarter today.

But let me just take a moment to summarize what we've previously discussed in terms of our multi-year outlook. And we do think that this is helpful alongside also our leverage policy that I just outlined. And that is, we are targeting to have consolidated constant currency organic revenue grow mid-single digits, possibly a little higher, for Adjusted EBITDA to grow slightly faster than revenue. And then from a free cash flow conversion perspective, to have EBITDA convert to adjusted free cash flow at a rate of approximately 45%-50%. And we do expect that would fluctuate from year to year. And as I previously mentioned, we're also focused on continuing to deliver in line with the leverage policy that I outlined.

You know, all of this in terms of what we're targeting over the years to come is rooted in the capabilities that we have, the significant scale-based advantages that we have. Because of, you know, the changes in the market as well over time, that leads us to be confident to be able to continue to execute against this. With that, I'm happy to answer any questions that anyone might have. Good. Sure. Just to repeat the question for those online, the question was, what role has Etsy played, and what was the second part of that? And just how that compares to some of the other players. Yeah.

So, you know, I think Etsy is a company that we're certainly very familiar with, although, you know, you may have more details on them than I, if I follow them somewhat. You know, I think in the creator community, I think it's a great example of kind of democratizing the creator community and leveraging that into you know small quantities of custom things, which is very much you know in the space of what we do as well. You know, their business is a bit different in terms of being more kind of you know craft-focused versus some of the more kind of industrial production that we've invested in. But there's certainly a lot of relevance in terms of democratizing capabilities that make things of you know personalized things available in small quantities.

To be honest, because Etsy is much more consumer-focused, there's not great overlap between our businesses. At different points in the year that might be, you know, there's a little bit more overlap, especially during the holiday season, but that wouldn't be one of the, you know, the top five or 10 competitors that we're focused on, although certainly recognize that there is some overlap there. And, you know, I think the trend of democratization of design, democratization of, you know, the creator network is something that, you know, we hope to participate in as well. So I'm not sure I have much more to offer up on that one. Yeah. So the question was whether about 80% or 90% of our business is focused on SMBs. And the answer is yes. It's around that.

We have. There's really only kind of two components of our overall Cimpress business that are focused more on consumer end use cases. One is in Vistaprint. We have about 15% of our revenue is from a category perspective, more consumer products. And then our BuildASign business based out of Austin, Texas has roughly half of that business is home decor, in particular, canvas prints. And so that's more of a consumer focus. But you're right, it is about 80%-90% that is more SMB focused. And that is where we intend to continue to focus. Consumer is, especially at different points in the year has an important role to play. But in the SMB space, that's where we. Yeah. So the question was about how our SMB customers sort of react to the or how they behave during an economic cycle. Yeah, sure.

So we've actually seen some differences there relative to what you might expect in a typical economic cycle, and I think you know part of what I'm about to describe has to do with the relative maturity of the industry and also the relative value of you know the offerings that we can provide versus traditional suppliers, what we've seen in the past when there's been periods of macroeconomic sensitivity, and some of this goes back to the earlier phases of online print actually being available, but we've seen that be times of actually acceleration of growth for us because generally that's associated with potentially some contraction in the marketing wallet, so maybe there's more sensitivity to the amount of spend, but the thing that a customer might spend on still needs to happen just in smaller quantities. That fits our model quite well.

And just overall, just greater economic sensitivity, you know, the pricing that's available in the online market tends to be lower than what's available in the traditional market. So, you know, whether it be the great financial crisis or even periods of macroeconomic sensitivity in like Southern Europe in 2014, 2015, we actually saw acceleration of growth during those cycles, not the opposite. I don't think that that would always be true. But because of our offerings relative to the traditional market, it tends to be a time where customers are more attracted to our model, find their way to our model, and then stay there. We saw that to some extent during COVID as well when there was sensitivity, that there were customers that came to us and then stayed, and it was an opportunity, especially in our upload and print businesses in Europe, to take market share.

So it's a little bit contrarian in some regard. I think that there's an overwhelming trend though towards a need for smaller quantities, even in marketing materials like booklets or magazines or even you know flyers postcards. You see trends away from some of the long runs and into you know to the shorter runs where you know our business is very much focused.

Speaker 2

Can you talk to the skew of what growth by segment? What areas of the business are growing faster than the rest?

Sean Quinn
EVP and CFO, Cimpress

Yeah sure. So the question was about the skew of growth both by segment and also in particular within Vista by product category. So you know each year there are some differences depending on what the comp is or you know some uniqueness about a given year.

Looking back over the last few years, as a starting point, our upload and print businesses were growing faster than Vista. And there were some reasons for that, especially coming out of COVID. As I was actually just mentioning in reference to the last question, there was an opportunity to take share. There was also some constraints in the supply chain, and we had availability of product in ways that traditional suppliers didn't. So those businesses were able to take share and were growing very nicely coming out of COVID, at the fastest rates in our portfolio. And so the mix was moving towards more of our upload and print businesses.

Since then, you know, in the second half of fiscal 2023 and in fiscal 2024, Vista then, you know, started to accelerate a little bit, and has contributed or like evenly or grown a little bit faster than some of our other businesses. So over the last, I don't know, six quarters or so, it's been a little bit more evenly distributed with Vista actually being, you know, through fiscal 2024 a little bit higher than the other. So again, there's some nuance depending on what the comps are and so on. But that's been the case, at least through fiscal 2024. In terms of like at a category level, and then the, and the question was specific to Vista, there are really three categories that are sort of standouts in terms of growth rate. One is promotional products.

So think, you know, drinkware, apparel, you know, bags, writing instruments, giveaways, and even if you just kind of look around this room, but also walk around the hallway, you see a lot of those things represented. So promotional products, signage and packaging, signage and packaging both being, you know, newer than some of our other products to this market where we can offer, you know, a wide breadth of product in these small order quantities. Packaging is the newest to that, things like corrugated packaging, flexible packaging, you know, stickers, labels, and so on, so those are the three categories that are growing the most, the quickest, and we've also put explicit focus on those categories, in, you know, what we're focused on in the Vista business. It's a very clear objective for us to improve the end-to-end experience for those categories.

They are more complex products, which is somewhat newer for the Vista business. So we need to sort of think through, you know, how we optimize the end-to-end experience, including design services that we offer, how one might design those products in the site experience, how they visualize those, and then also, of course, having the production capabilities as well. Those three combined would be somewhere around 30%. Meredith is signaling higher, but PPAG and signage I had a roughly 15%, and then packaging is what, another 5% or so. So yeah, call it 35%, a little, a little more than 1/3 . Yeah. Yeah.

And again, without, you know, updating on the December quarter specifically, I'll go back to what we provided at our last Investor Day, where we actually grouped together, through fiscal 2024, business cards and then consumer, because there are some parts of our consumer category, at a consolidated level, but in particular in Vista that have declined. A lot of that happening through some of the just changes in behavior that happened during the pandemic, for example, invitations and announcements. You know, no one needed to get together for a period of time. When they started to get together again, you know, they were finding other ways to invite their friends to a kid's birthday or graduation celebration. So we grouped them together.

The numbers, actually I think I have them in the hand here, but I think the numbers were that, over the five-year period, from the ending in fiscal 2024, that business cards and consumer together, declined at a CAGR of 1.7%. And that includes the, some of just the behavior change in consumer as well. And actually over that time period, business cards had grown some. And then, in our other categories, the CAGR was about a little over 7%. So excluding business cards and consumer. Those are at a consolidated level. Yeah. And from a Vista perspective, that's where the highest concentration of business cards is. And we didn't get into those numbers specifically.

Although if you look at our Investor Day materials, we did make some comparisons back to 2018 there for business cards, and contrasted those to the high growth categories that I mentioned, PPAG, packaging, and signage. And you can see that in our Investor Day materials. Sure. Yeah. So the question was about any additional organic investments that may need to be made. We each year, just as a point of reference, provide an estimate of the organic growth investments we are making in the business. And those are. You can find those in our annual letter to investors I mentioned before. I think for the end of fiscal 2024, the approximate numbers were, you know, the level of growth investment that was impacting EBITDA was, I think, $109 million or about $110 million.

And I think it was a little over $140 million on a cash flow basis, which includes CapEx and so on. Yeah, that's a significant amount. And so, on your question of, like, you know, is there a need, is there a need for more? The answer to that is no, we think that that is certainly sufficient. And, frankly, you know, we need to be able to prove that that level of growth investment is justified, based on, you know, what we're seeing in the, in the business. But we don't see any need for, you know, an inflection, upwards in that. And you know, we have had some moments of that in our past, but we don't see that, that need, today. The hurdle rate for, you were asking about the returns on those organic investments.

The hurdle rates, you know, differ depending on, you know, what specifically it is, but, you know, I would say, certainly, certainly north of 12%, but oftentimes north of 15% is the expectation for those. Some portions of that are like, are highly measurable and some of them are, you know, less easy to measure because they're, you know, more integrated into the entirety of the experience, but in any case, that's approximately the expectation. Great. I think we have a few minutes left. Are there any further questions?

Speaker 2

Yeah. What is it about them that they're not set up for smaller, lower volume runs?

Sean Quinn
EVP and CFO, Cimpress

Yeah. Great question, so the question was, relative to traditional suppliers, you know, what is it about them that doesn't allow them to serve well these small order quantities? There's quite a bit. So I think you could look at that in a few ways. You could start from the perspective of that traditional supplier and what it would take for them to serve you know more of these needs. One is you know in order to be able to provide these small order quantities with the unit economics that allow you to offer that at a great price.

Like there's a certain amount of scale inherent of that that's required. Now with some more digital production, in some cases, maybe you don't need as much scale as you once did. But even there, like you know there's some pretty expensive machinery that you need in order to do that. And so from the perspective of the traditional supplier, it's usually a combination of capital constraints, know-how constraints, time constraints.

You know, this is a person that's running the, you know, running the front end of the business and doesn't have, you know, a, a separate, you know, our largest production facility in North America is 650,000 sq ft. And if you walked in, it's highly automated. There's a high amount of industrial engineering and know-how that's gone into that, a high amount of technology investment. So it's just very difficult for, and it, they don't always have to be that big, but it's very difficult for a traditional supplier to go on that journey because their relative focus is on, you know, serving, you know, serving the customers that they have. So they can turn to sometimes to, you know, to 3PFs, but that's very hard. That's through the eyes of like what makes it difficult for the traditional supplier.

You know, I think even frankly, staying on top of technology and innovation trends, I mean, we have, you know, very scaled, you know, some of the largest relationships with the likes of, you know, you know, HP, you know, many of our other, you know, production equipment suppliers that allow us to get access to this technology early, co-create with them, and that's not something that a traditional, you know, a small, you know, local printer would have access to. So that's from their perspective. I think from the customer perspective, there's the ease of being able to go online and order, right? Versus, you know, have that in-person interaction. Although some people prefer that in-person interaction and that will continue.

But then in terms of product breadth, to be able to go to one place and have access to a broad portfolio and also to be able to get the help that you need, whether it be for design or just navigating the site or so on, just in terms of the ease of experience, you know, that's something that also is not provided in that. So those are just a few, but yeah, there's more too. And, you know, like I said, some customers do prefer that in-person interaction though. And we think that that will continue. And so some of those traditional suppliers are actually turning to some of our businesses as a source of supply. So they maintain that customer relationship and then they get access to a broad portfolio.

The same thing at great prices, quality service, speed of delivery. But they do that as a means to serve the existing portfolio that they have. Yeah. Great. I think we have one minute left. Any, any last questions? Otherwise, I think we'll, we'll wrap there. Thank you very much, very much everyone here in the room and online for sharing some time with us. Appreciate your questions and please do reach out if you have any further questions. Thank you.

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