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Earnings Call: Q1 2013

Dec 12, 2012

Operator

Good morning. My name is Felicia, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the first quarter fiscal year 2013 operating results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, then the number 1 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, press the pound key. Thank you. Mr. Galanti, you may begin your conference.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Thank you, Felicia. Good morning. Today, of course, is our first quarter earnings report for the 12 weeks ended November 25th. As with every conference call, I'll start by stating that these discussions we're having will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, that these statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual events, results, and/or performance to differ materially from those indicated by such statements. The risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those outlined in today's call, as well as other risks identified from time to time in the company's public statements and reports filed with the SEC. To begin with, our 12-week first quarter operating results. For the quarter, our reported earnings per share came in at $0.95 compared to last year's first quarter of $0.73.

As was noted in this morning's release, there were 2 one-time items that hit last year's Q1 results. The first of these was the settlement of an income tax audit at Costco de México last year in the first quarter. During that quarter, Costco de México recorded an after-tax charge of $24 million. The impact to Costco's net income, as a then 50% owner of Costco de México, was $12 million, or $0.03 a share. The second item that hit last year's earnings results was a $17 million, or $0.04 per share, charge to SG&A line for our contributions to the Washington State Initiative 1183 liquor initiative. Excluding these 2 one-time items from last year's results, last year's $0.73 reported figure would've been $0.79, making this year's $0.95 figure a 20% year-over-year increase.

In terms of sales for the first quarter, our 12-week reported comparable sales figures in Q1 showed a 7% increase, 7 in the U.S. and reported a 9% internationally. Excluding gas price inflation and the impact of FX, the 7% U.S. comp reported number would've been 6. The 9% reported international comp would've been 7, and the 7 overall would've been a 6. Other topics of interest. I'll talk about our opening schedule first. We opened 9 locations during the first fiscal quarter of 2013, 8 in the U.S. and 1 in Alberta, Canada. By the end of this week, we'll have opened in the second quarter 5 additional locations, 1 in Washington, D.C., 1 additional one in Canada, 1 in the U.K., and 1 in Korea, which is later this week, giving us 14 new openings thus far in fiscal 2013.

For all of 2013, we have a current plan of 30 new locations, 14 of which are planned for the U.S., three each in Canada and the U.K., one in Australia, which will be our fourth in that country, a new one in Mexico, our 33rd location and the first new opening in Mexico in a little over three years, and eight in Asia, including five in Japan, two in Korea, and one in Taiwan. Also this morning, I'll review with you our e-commerce activities, our membership trends, additional discussion about gross margins and SG&A in the first quarter, stock repurchase activities, which were relatively small, and of course, the two subsequent events, the announcement of a $7 per share special dividend, which will be payable on December 18th, and the sale of $3.5 billion of senior notes. On to the discussion of the quarter.

Very briefly, the sales for the year, the 12 weeks ended November 25th, were $23.2 billion, up 9.6% from last year's first quarter of $21.2 billion. Our reported comp basis, first quarter comps were up 7% for the quarter and excluding gas and FX up 6%, again, comprised of a 6% U.S. without gas and a 7% international in local currencies. For the quarter, our 7% reported comp result was a combination of an average transaction increase of about 2.5% and an average frequency increase of just under 5%. In terms of sales comparisons by geography. Geographically, all the regions have been fairly consistent for the past few fiscal quarters, generally in the mid to high single digit positive range. One outlier was due to Hurricane Sandy hitting the Northeast. Comps for the Northeast region in November were lower than it had been running by a couple of percentage points.

California has been in the mid-singles positive range. Southeast and Midwest in the mid to high singles. Internationally in local currencies during the quarter, Costco Canada continues strong, coming in in the low double digits for Q1 and in the mid to high singles in November. Where international sales results are being hit is in Asia. In a word, cannibalization. Since Q1 end a year ago, we've opened one unit in Korea. We now have eight there. One unit in Taiwan, which brings us to nine, and four new locations in Japan, so we now have 13 in Japan. So six new openings in the past year on a base a year ago of 24. Additionally, in Korea, a few months ago, we, like other big box retailers in Korea, are now required to be closed two Sundays a month. In terms of merchandise categories for the quarter.

For the first quarter, September, October, November, essentially within food and sundries, overall in the 4%-6% range with candy, deli, and refrigerated being the relative standouts. Our hardline sales were quite a bit stronger as compared to recent quarters. Majors, electronics came in in the high teens and hardware in the mid-teens. Overall, in the low double digits for hardlines. Within the low double digit softlines comps, small electrics and women's apparel were the standouts, with media being the area of continued weakness. Within fresh foods, its comps have been in the mid to high single digit range. All subcategories pretty good results. Moving down the income statement. In the first quarter, membership fees, $511 million, or 2.20%. That's up 14%, or nine basis points from the $447 million a year ago, or a $64 million increase.

In terms of membership, we continue to benefit from several things. Certainly, we're still benefiting from the $5 and $10 membership fee increases that began last November in the U.S. and Canada for new sign-ups, and this past January for renewals. Of the $64 million increase year-over-year in membership fee income, about $28 million we estimate was due to these increases based on how deferred accounting works. The income statement benefit to the membership income line, as I mentioned before, will continue to show incremental year-over-year increases throughout the four fiscal quarters of 2013, and to a partial extent in the first quarter of fiscal 2014.

In addition, we've got new openings that have helped, as well as strong renewal rates, rounding up to 90% in the U.S. and Canada and 86% worldwide, and continued increasing penetration of the $110 a year Executive Membership in the U.S. and Canada. Our new membership sign-ups in first quarter company-wide kept pace year-over-year with last year's sign-ups. While we did have more locations open in the quarter, nine versus a year ago four, we think it's a pretty good outcome given that there were very strong international openings last year, which contributed to a very large sign-ups in Q1 a year ago. In terms of new members for Q1 end, at fiscal year-end, we had 26.7 million Gold Star members. That's up to 27.3 million at Q1 end.

Some of that, of course, is the conversion of some of our business add-ons as they convert into Executive Member and become their own separate membership. Again, 26.7 became 27.3. Primary business, 6.4 at year-end and 6.5 million at Q1 end. Business add-on, 3.8 and down to 3.6. Again, that's related to that conversion. All told, 36.9 and now 37.4 million. Including add-on spouse cards, 67.4 million cardholders at the end of Q4 and 68.2 million cardholders 12 weeks later at Q1 end. At Q1 end, paid Executive Members were 12.9 million, an increase of 280,000 or about 23,000 a week increase in the quarter. Executive Members account for a little over a third of our membership and a little over two-thirds of our sales. That trend continues as well.

In terms of renewal rates, they continue strong at 89.7% at Q1 end in the U.S. and Canada, and 86.4% worldwide. Business was at 93.6% at Q4 end and ticked up to a 93.8% at Q1 end. Gold Star remained constant at 88.7% and total 89.7%. Worldwide, 86.4% continuing strong in all categories. Overall, it certainly appears that a year ago's membership fee increase had little or no impact on our renewal rates. Going down the gross margin line, margins were up six basis points year-over-year in the quarter from a 10.62 last year to a 10.68. As usual, we'll just jot down a few numbers, give you a few less this time. We'll make four columns, the line items are as follows.

The four columns, by the way, would be reported fiscal year 2012, then fiscal year 2012 without gasoline inflation. Then for the quarter, the same thing, reported Q1 2013, then without gas inflation. Those would be the four columns. Going across, core merchandising. For the year, it was minus 21 basis points. Without gas inflation, it was minus 13. For Q1, reported was minus 7, and without gas, minus 1. Ancillary, plus 1 and plus 2 for fiscal 2012, reported and without gas. In Q1, plus 14 and plus 15. 2% Reward, minus 2 and minus 2. In the quarter, minus 2 and minus 3. LIFO, plus 8 and plus 8 for last year, and plus 1 and plus 1 in the first quarter.

All told, we reported for all of last year a 14% year-over-year decline in gross margins, but without gas inflation, it was minus 5. In the first quarter, we reported plus 6, and without gas inflation, it was plus 12. With that chart in front of you can see that our overall gross margin was higher year-over-year by 6, but again, up 12 without gas inflation. In the first quarter, our core merchandising gross margin again was a minus 7, but only 1 basis point lower year-over-year, excluding gas inflation. This 1 basis point negative result compares favorably to the previous 4 fiscal quarter figures, where the year-over-year core merchandising gross margin variances had ranged from minus 10 to minus 16 basis points.

Again, as you can see in the chart we just wrote down, for all of last year range, averaged minus 13 basis points. Ancillary business gross margins contributed 14. Higher year-over-year gas sales, both in dollars and gallons, and higher year-over-year gross margins in the gasoline business represented about two-thirds of this positive year-over-year gross margin variance. Margins in our food and sundries department, which is a little over half of our core merchandise, were up slightly year-over-year in the quarter. While in non-foods, hard lines was flat year-over-year, and soft lines margins were down slightly, as were fresh foods. The 2% Reward feature, again, just a little extra sales penetration, therefore a minus 2 basis point reward. That, of course, would imply about a percentage point increase in sales penetration to those members.

LIFO, there was no charge or credit last year, and there was a very small credit this year of $2 million or 1 basis point, implying some minor amount of deflation during the fiscal quarter. Moving on to SG&A. Our SG&A percentages in the first quarter were lower or better by 7 basis points, coming in at a 10.05%, compared to a 10.12% as a percent of sales last year in the quarter. Again, we'll do the same little chart with the 4 columns. 2 columns for fiscal 2012, reported and without gas. Then 2 columns for Q1 reported and without gas. First line item is core operations. In fiscal 2012, plus 18, and then without gas inflation, plus 12, meaning better or lower by that much. In Q1, plus 10 and plus 5.

Central was a small improvement for the whole fiscal year of 2012, +2, without gas, +1. In Q1, SG&A was higher at Central, -7 and -8 without gas inflation. Equity compensation was -1 and -2 for all of last year, and -4 and -4 in the first quarter, certainly a reflection of both the higher stock price as well as there are certain recipients that get them every other year, and we're trading off a year versus that when that doesn't happen. All told, +17 and +9 for last year. Reported SG&A, I'm sorry, excluding quarterly adjustments. Quarterly adjustments was just basically that $17 million charge to SG&A last year in the first quarter for I-1183.

For all of the year, that was a -2 in the reported fiscal 2012 column and a -2 without gas inflation. In Q1, it was +8 and +8, lower year-over-year, of course. A total of +7 and +1, meaning we reported 7 basis points of improvement and, without gas inflation, +1 basis point improvement. In terms of a little editorial, operations were lower again in this, you can see in the chart by 10 basis points, but 5 excluding gas. Within core operations, our payroll as a percent of sales improved year-over-year by 7 basis points. I think for the first time in the past few quarters, we benefited slightly by a 2 basis point improvement in healthcare cost line item.

Our central expenses were higher year-over-year in Q1 by 7 basis points, as you can see, 8 without gas. The big culprit there is something I've mentioned in the past few quarters that has continued to increase is the IT modernization costs. We are now in full swing and that represented year-over-year 7 basis point hit to SG&A. Next on the income statement line is pre-opening expenses, at $10 million last year. Of course, with the ramp up in expansion, that's $8 million higher this year, or no, it's 3 basis points to the company, but $18 million this year versus $10 million last year. Last year in the quarter, we had 4 openings. This year, of course, we had 9 with 5 more just after Q1 end.

All told, reported operating income was $543 million last year compared to $639 million this year, or an 18% increase. Excluding the $17 million charge for I-1183, operating income last year would've been $560 million or up about 14%. Below the operating income line, reported interest expense was much lower this year versus last year, with Q1 2013 coming in at $13 million versus $27 million in last year's Q1. Virtually all of this represents the pay down of $900 million of debt back in March, which we did on an annual basis beginning this past March, the annual pre-tax interest savings to Costco, given that we paid off 5.3% debt and we're then foregoing interest at a much lower rate. That's about $44 million pre-tax a year.

Interest income and other in Q1 was much lower year-over-year as well by $17 million, coming in $20 million this year, interest income and other, and $37 million last year. Actual interest income within that interest income and other was only lower by $1 million, coming in at $10 million versus $11 million. The other component of the interest income and other amounted to $10 million this year versus $26 million last year, or lower by $16 million. $12 million of that negative variance related to a gain last year in the first quarter on U.S. dollars held in our Mexico joint venture. Because the Mexico venture held U.S. dollars and during that quarter, the peso declined relative to the value of the U.S. dollar, its holdings of the U.S. dollar, which is a foreign currency to them, required marking that to market and a gain.

That $12 million, of course, half of that gain was ours ultimately, since we owned 50% of Costco de México at the time. All of the gain was in the interest income and other line a year ago, and half of it was down below in non-controlling interest as an offset. Most of the remaining year-over-year decrease of approximately $4 million is just a normal swing, plus or minus, where buyers managing the cost of foreign denominated inventory purchases in our foreign operations, which require at the quarter ends to mark those to market. Overall, pre-tax income was up 17% last year from $553 million to $646 million this year. Again, excluding I-1183, last year's $553 million would've been $570 million, so the increase would've been 13%.

In terms of tax rates, our company tax rate this quarter came in at 34.8%, much lower, of course, than last year's reported rate of 40.8%. Excluding the two items mentioned in the press release, our effective tax rate last year was a 35.3%, which I think is a more appropriate comparison. Still about a half a point higher last year than this year. Again, that reflects mostly the fact of increasing penetration of earnings outside the U.S. where federal tax rates generally are lower. Overall, net income was up 30%, as you know in the press release. Excluding those two items in the press release, that would've been up 19%. For a quick rundown of other usual topics. The balance sheet is included in today's press release. Depreciation amortization, $213 million for the quarter. Accounts payable as a percent of inventories.

Reported, of course, it showed 108% year-over-year and up five percentage points from 103% last year. If you just looked at merchandise inventory accounts payable compared to merchandise inventories, last year was 92%, and again, improved up to 94%. Most of our inventory's trade payable financed. Average inventory per route last year in the first quarter was $12,871,000. This year in the first quarter, it was $13,213,000. So up $432,000 or 3%. About $100,000 of that, just under $100,000 of that is FX strengthening foreign currencies versus the dollar. Another $130,000 is in majors, principally televisions and cameras. We've done very well, as you know, in the monthly sales reports about how our comps in the majors areas have been. The rest is pretty much spread among many departments. In terms of CapEx, in the first quarter, we spent $488 million.

Our fiscal 2013 CapEx is estimated to be approximately $2 billion. This compares to CapEx last year of just under $1.5 billion. Some of this higher annual year-over-year estimated expenditures are due to both the higher penetrate should have a number of units planned in Asia, as well as anticipated higher ramp of total opening schedule for Q1 and beyond. Also, I want to mention our dividends, our regular dividend, our quarterly dividend of $0.275 per share quarterly. This $1.10 per share annualized dividend represents the total cost of the company of just about $480 million. In terms of expansion, as you know, last year we opened 16 units, 17 openings including one relocation, so 16 net openings. For this year, we've, as I mentioned, opened nine new units with no reloads. Actually, there's no reloads all year. In Q1 we opened nine.

In Q2 with the opening later this week in Korea, we will have opened five more, so 14 total. We plan seven for Q3 and nine for Q4, that would give us our 30. Certainly, we're going to get north of 25 and one or two of those slip, so be it, but that's our current budget is 30. In fiscal 2012, the 16 units we added on a then base of the beginning base of 592 represented 3% square footage growth. In 2013, adding 30 on a base of the 608 that we'd be in this fiscal year is about 5% square footage growth. Again, that includes 14 in the U.S., three each in Canada and the U.K., two in Korea, one in Taiwan, five planned for Japan, one in Australia and one in Mexico.

As of Q1, our total square footage ended at 88,259,000 square feet, which represents an average of just over 145,000 feet per Costco warehouse. In terms of stock repurchase during the quarter, as you recall, for all of fiscal 2012, we had purchased 7.3 million shares for a total of a little over $600 million. This year in the first quarter, we repurchased 357,000 shares at an average price of $96.41. That represented about $35 million. Mind you that during the 12 weeks, there were only about three weeks that we actually purchased stock. For the first five or six weeks between the beginning of the fiscal quarter and through the day after of first quarter earnings announcement in I think the second week in December, we essentially were locked into a previous 10b5-1 filing, and the stock had moved above that matrix. We weren't buying.

Of course, once we decided to do a special dividend, we held off on buying during the last few weeks of the quarter as well. If I looked at the days we actually bought on an annualized basis, it was in excess of $500 million on an annualized basis, but who knows what that brings for the future. Lastly, the two subsequent events. Two weeks ago, on November 28th, we announced the declaration of a $7 a share special cash dividend. This dividend will be paid on December 18th to people who own the stock on the close of business on December 10th. In total, the dividend represents return to our shareholders of just over $3 billion. By the way, in connection with the Costco shares held by our employees in the 401 plan, which totals approximately 22.6 million shares.

These shares are held through an employee stock ownership plan that had been established several years ago, and dividends paid on these shares are deductible for U.S. income tax purposes. We will recognize a one-time income tax benefit of approximately $62 million in the second fiscal quarter of 2013 in connection with the dividend payable on December 18th. Also on November 28th, we announced the completion of a $3.5 billion public debt offering in the form of senior notes. The notes were issued amongst three tranches, three-year $1.2 billion worth, five-year $1.1 billion, and seven-year $1.2 billion. Given the weighted average maturity of five years, our all-in annual rate of interest came in just under 1.25%, we believe extremely attractive financing. With that, I will turn it back over to Felicia.

As you know, later this morning there'll be a supplemental information pack which includes some useful stats, and that will be posted to the Costco investor relations site later this morning. Felicia?

Operator

At this time, I'd like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press *1 on your telephone keypad. We'll pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of John Heinbockel with Guggenheim Securities.

John Heinbockel
Analyst, Guggenheim Securities

Richard, a couple of things. What are your merchants now saying about reflation in 2013? It seems like it may be less than we originally thought, but there still would seem there are some price increases coming down the pike. What's their thought and maybe what's your thought in terms of what you put in the budget?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

I think the buyers are the ones that more put in the budget. In polling the buyers just yesterday, actually, the area that stands out would be components of fresh foods, notably protein. Beef, poultry, and pork. The view there is there's still additional mid to high single-digit inflation expected over the next six to nine months. Beyond that, it's hit and miss. If I look at our LIFO statistics as an indication, apparel is down ever so slightly year-over-year, but that's partly because it was up a lot last year, so it's coming off of its peaks. It's still probably higher than a few years ago.

I would say the overall view, aside from electronics being down slightly per like item. Actually, our average price points are up a little, I believe, because we've tended to go towards higher end, like 60- and 80-inch TVs and more SLR cameras, DSLR cameras and the like. Just looking down the list of some unusual items, again, tuna looks like it's come up a little bit, canned tuna. As I mentioned, beef is up some. There's always going to be some ups and downs on produce just based on supplies. Grapes and blueberries are dramatic right now, higher year-over-year. I'm sure it's weather-related, not anything else related. On the downside, when I scan the list of the top 20 or 30 items here, most of them are electronics with a few other things. Just anecdotally, pecans and walnuts.

I know a year ago, again, they were way up. If you put it all in, my guess is that gas, who the heck knows? Fresh foods, inflationary, the rest of it, kind of a wash at this point. Nothing up or down a lot.

John Heinbockel
Analyst, Guggenheim Securities

Probably not enough to dampen demand, it sounds like, right?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Not in our part.

John Heinbockel
Analyst, Guggenheim Securities

Okay. Your big competitor has talked about price investments and other than rotisserie chickens, I can't see a big change in the competitive environment or the intensity of competition. What have you seen? It doesn't look like you've had to do any reaction thus far. Is that sort of the plan going forward based on what you've seen today?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

I can only speak of today and yesterday and prior, we don't see any big changes there.

John Heinbockel
Analyst, Guggenheim Securities

Okay. I guess finally, when you look out into January, is there any, either with your individual customers or small business customer, as best as you can tell, do you think the cliff, has it created any change in behavior to date? Do you think it will, or it's pretty much a non-event for you?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Well, again, we're a little jaded here because our numbers, particularly our frequencies and our comps, have been pretty darn good. I think we, like everybody, have a little of cautious optimism that they're going to do at least a compromise or they better. We're not really focusing a lot on it right now.

John Heinbockel
Analyst, Guggenheim Securities

Okay, thanks.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

I would think that we'd do a little better than others, at least if history continues.

John Heinbockel
Analyst, Guggenheim Securities

Yeah, that's fair. Thanks a lot.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Yep.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Wiltamuth with Morgan Stanley.

Mark Wiltamuth
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hi, Richard. Congrats on the quarter. I wanted to ask a little bit about the core merchandising margin only down one basis point x gas. Is there any change there, or can you really point to what was going on there to keep that number muted?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Not really. As we've always said for many quarters, margins are more us than anybody else. It's pretty much as you see it. It's a little better. I don't think we started the quarter saying, "Let's get a little better," or, "Let's get that trend back to zero," but that's where it ended up. We're trying to do both, drive business and make money.

Mark Wiltamuth
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Have you seen an uptick in your private label penetration or anything like that that might be contributing?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Nothing out of the ordinary. We continue to add products, everything from some wine and spirits to canned goods and all kinds of nut and candy items. I'd say nothing dramatic. The big dramatic number came in the first half of calendar 2009 after the financial crisis, where we saw an unusually large increase in sales penetration of private label. I think on the food and sundry side, over six months back then, it was like 300 basis points. Generally, we see a half to three quarters percent a year, and I'm not aware of anything that is different than that right now.

Mark Wiltamuth
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Lastly, Black Friday, how did that go for you? It looked like there was a lot of activity in the electronics part of the store, especially with the manufacturer rebates that were being featured there. How did that look for you in that category?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

It was fine. No surprises versus what we had expected. We've now done some of our own Black Friday coupon handouts and the like for the last few years. Yeah, we were pleased with it.

Mark Wiltamuth
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay, thank you very much.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Yep.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gregory Melich with ISI Group.

Gregory Melich
Analyst, ISI Group

Hi, it's Greg with ISI. Richard, one question on SG&A and then CapEx. What really drove that central increase? Is that some of the modernization impacts or getting the website up and running in the new format? What should we call out there?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

When I look at IT cost as a % of sales year-over-year, they were up seven basis points. My guess is a half of a basis point might be re-platforming, maybe another half a basis point or a whole basis point is normal increase in IT. Clearly five plus of it is modernization, and that probably has trended up a little extra year-over-year over the last few quarters. We'll probably peak this year, and then it'll be anniversarying against itself each year over the next three or four years.

Gregory Melich
Analyst, ISI Group

Got it. Is it-

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Go ahead.

Gregory Melich
Analyst, ISI Group

As it anniversaries, do you expect it to go back to zero, or do you actually cycle it and it becomes a year-over-year down for good guy?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Well, I don't think it's going to go down for two or three years. These things take on a life of their own. It'll be a lot less than five to seven basis points. I would hope, again, we haven't budgeted that detail that far out, but I would hope it's zero to two, not five to seven next year. By the way, regarding the prior question, as it related to Black Friday, I just was looking. That week on a year-over-year basis, frequency was still darn close to 4%, just below four, so pretty consistent with what we've seen all over.

Gregory Melich
Analyst, ISI Group

That's great. If I could follow up on the CapEx front. I know it's going up because we're having more club openings.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Yeah.

Gregory Melich
Analyst, ISI Group

Could you help us on the international openings and how many of those you actually build and own the store as opposed to lease it? Because I imagine it's less when you go overseas than the U.S.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

I don't have that detail in front of me. I can tell you that when we look at the average location cost, which might be on average over the last couple of years company-wide in the mid 30s, it tends to be a shade lower than that in the U.S. and Canada, and higher, and it might be in the 40s on average over, let's say in Asia. We've done a couple that are in the low 50s, and I would assume we'll continue to do that. In Korea, we tend to do more ground leases. In Japan, we tend to own. In Taiwan, I think it's a combination. Some ground leases as well. Australia, I think we own. Mexico, we own, and the U.K., we own, and in Canada and the U.S., we generally own 80% plus.

Gregory Melich
Analyst, ISI Group

Okay, the ownership rate doesn't seem to change dramatically if we're to look international or not.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

No, particularly because right now, at least, we're tending to open, like in Asia, more in Japan than in Korea and Taiwan, where we tend to own more than lease.

Gregory Melich
Analyst, ISI Group

I think just lastly, a follow-up on gross margin. I think you mentioned in hard lines, gross margins were flat. I'm just surprised in that, especially given the strength of electronics. Was there anything else going on in there that could have impacted it?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Not really. I think sales were strong. In terms of the outright gross margin year-over-year, look, there's a lot of hot deals over there. I didn't really read anything into that. We've certainly improved on our returns over the last few years as we changed our returns policy in electronics to 90 days instead of infinity. In terms of anecdotally in the last few budget meetings, there hasn't been anything coming out of there in terms of any issues in electronics or hard lines.

Gregory Melich
Analyst, ISI Group

Great. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Charles Grom with Deutsche Bank.

Matt Nagle
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Good morning, guys. It's actually Matt for Chuck. Most of my questions have been answered. I was just wondering if you could kind of flush out your comments about the cannibalization you're seeing in Asia and kind of where that is relative to what you expected and what you think is going to happen kind of going forward as you continue to open up. Thanks.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Yeah. Well, it's as we expected. As an example, I think in Taiwan, we opened North Kaohsiung, which of course took a bunch of business from Kaohsiung. In Japan, earlier this year we reopened Tamasakai, which was the one unit that had been closed for about 10 or 11 months from the tragedy of the earthquake. Essentially, all of that business went to two nearby Costcos. When I say nearby, half an hour away. The day it reopened, that unit is not comping because it hadn't done any sales over the last year, but it took all that business out of the other two. On top of regular cannibalization, we had extreme cannibalization in that one.

Matt Nagle
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

That was in March.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

That was, yeah, in March.

Matt Nagle
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Got it.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

That'll subside this March. Nonetheless, we're opening a bunch of units over there, so that'll continue as we expect.

Matt Nagle
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay, great. Then just to follow up, in terms of the Northeast, you said it was obviously weak, given Sandy. Have you seen the recovery kind of take hold, and are we back to normal in this area yet?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Yes, we are.

Matt Nagle
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Colin McGranahan with Bernstein.

Colin McGranahan
Analyst, Bernstein

Good morning. Thanks, Richard. Just a quick follow-up on Asia cannibalization. It looks like the comps in international ex currency were running kind of at the 10% range for all of fiscal 2011, the first half of fiscal 2012, then the last two quarters in the 7% range. Is that entirely explainable by cannibalization, and can you quantify what that cannibalization impact is in total on the international business?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Yeah. A big chunk of it is. I don't have all that detail in front of me. If I look at Japan and local currency as an example, it's easily from I don't know what it was running. I'm sure it was running in the low double digits. Of late, it's in the high single negative digits. You look at it, we've opened 4 units in the last year. What did that impact? Those new units aren't in the calculation yet. So almost half of the previous units are being cannibalized. Two of them extremely cannibalized because you've had a high volume Tamasakai unit, existing location that had been closed for 11 months, and all those customers came back to their home base. Then again, there's the anomaly in Korea of having to be closed for two Sundays a month.

If you just do simple math, that's one fifteenth, that's 6% or 7% of the days. You don't lose it all, but you certainly lose some or half of it, or who knows?

Colin McGranahan
Analyst, Bernstein

Okay, that's helpful. Back in the U.S., how many clubs that don't have a gasoline station can still be converted at this point, and where are you on that entire path?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

I think in the U.S., we have about 440 locations. I could be off one or two, and I think about 70 of them don't have gas. My guess, without looking at detail is that half of them ultimately can have gas and half of them will never have gas. We're never going to have a gas station at 11th and Harrison in San Francisco or in Brooklyn. Just they're landlocked and forget about it. I'm sure there'll be some that we're working on. I don't have the list in front of me. There'll be others that were relocated. Probably a best guess is over the next five to eight years, half of those 70. My guess is when we open new ones, virtually all of them do.

There'll always be one outlier, but virtually all of them have gas stations, as is in Canada. In Canada, we have Hold on. I've got a list here. Canada, we have 83 locations. 38 of them have gas, so 45 of them don't. Recognizing we've only been in gas in Canada for the last few years. Again, my guess is that two-thirds of those that don't have it will have it over time.

Colin McGranahan
Analyst, Bernstein

Got it. Okay, that's great. Just very quickly, you went through the variance on other income relative to last year, but what's the $10 million of actual other income this year?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

There was a interest income.

Colin McGranahan
Analyst, Bernstein

Well, it's $20 million of interest and other income, and there was $10 million of interest, so there's $10 million of other income.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Yes, there is. He's asking is the $20 million that we had. Hold on. I got to look real quick. When I look at interest income and other. Hold on a second. Okay, that $10 million was investment income, and $10 million it's mostly equity and earnings of. Hold on.

Speaker 13

It's mostly the FX related. Yeah.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

I just did the variance. Hold on.

Speaker 13

The revaluation of foreign denominated.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Basically, it's about $8 or $9 million of FX related stuff. By comparison, it's within a half a million dollars of a year ago. No change.

Colin McGranahan
Analyst, Bernstein

Okay. Thanks. I was just trying to figure out how persistent it is for modeling purposes. I appreciate that.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Sure.

Colin McGranahan
Analyst, Bernstein

Thanks.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Right. Mind you, just because it's about the same year-over-year means nothing.

Colin McGranahan
Analyst, Bernstein

I understand.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Okay.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Karen Short with BMO Capital.

Karen Short
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Hi there. Thanks for taking my question. Just on the SG&A leverage, you obviously pointed out payroll and healthcare. Just wondering how sustainable you think that might be throughout the year?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Certainly payroll depends. I think we've certainly shown that we've focused a little more on expenses and payroll, and we've gotten it down, but certainly sales are a big part of that as well. Increased penetration outside the U.S. where payroll percentages and the percent of sale are lower to start with. Our $20.50 average hourly wage in the U.S. is a third to 60% of that number in other countries, and close to it in Canada, of course, and a couple of countries as well. That helps increasing penetration. On the healthcare, I think if we got a couple of basis points, it's probably more related to sales being stronger and getting it down a little back to flat without it. Still hit and miss there. Several components of all the new healthcare legislation, which have kind of hit each year incrementally a little more.

I think we're nearing the end of that. A lot of that stuff, if you will, is in there by the end of this year, at the end of next year, rather. I can't predict that it's a trend by any means yet.

Karen Short
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Okay, thanks. Any color on the online sales growth in general with the website revamp and roll out of the U.K., right?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Far so good, I don't want to really give numbers out because it's only been a month and a half. Probably talk about that more on the second quarter call.

Karen Short
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Okay. Just last question. Any comments on fuel profits in the quarter, comp gallons until fuel sales?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Gallons, I think I have. We generally don't give that, I'm here, we'll give it. Let's see. Volume. Do you have it handy, Azan?

Speaker 13

I don't have it.

I don't have it. I think in the last couple of budget meetings, it's been running in the mid-single digit range positive.

Karen Short
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Okay.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Mid to high single digits.

Karen Short
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Okay. Then anything on tax rate going forward that we should think about?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

I'm sorry?

Karen Short
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Anything on the tax rate going forward that we should think about? I know you had commented on the issue or the $16 million, I think, in the 2Q.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Yeah. Other than that, I think the number in that 35 range.

John Heinbockel
Analyst, Guggenheim Securities

35, 36 kind of.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

On a normal basis, somewhere in the 35, maybe a shade higher. The trend line, if international's penetration continues, which we expect to do, would see that again trending down ever so slightly. Certainly, up, all things being equal.

Karen Short
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Great. Thanks very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Miller with William Blair.

Mark Miller
Equity Research Analyst, William Blair

Hi, good morning, Richard. One thing that really stands out for me with Costco versus other discounters is that the comp growth is very consistent for you across the product categories. Not just food and consumables, but also very strong in general merchandise. Can you expand on what you think you're doing differently or better, especially in hard lines and majors?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Well, I think I can give you a different reason for some different categories. From the beginning of time, we've always known we could be strong in foods and fresh foods, those are fast-turning areas. How do you turn the bigger-ticket non-food items? Because you don't have to add more square footage for it. If you can get something that's turning six and eight times up to nine and 10, that's good, and bigger-ticket items. We've always focused on that. I think of late, if I think of electronics, certainly our strength in 60- and 80-inch TVs, the bigger, higher-quality TVs, that's helped us. Clearly, getting people in the door via gas and fresh foods and having them walk by those types of things.

I think in apparel, certainly we've made a conscious, bigger commitment in several of those areas over the last year and a half. I think I used the example last quarter something as simple as the men's wool Kirkland Signature pant, which I think we tested a couple of years ago with 100,000 units, last year, 200,000 units, this year, 1 million units at $60 or so a pair. They're doing well. Not only are we making a decent margin on the KS shirt, we've gone from just the standard one to a couple of different styles with a spread collar. We're up to four-plus million KS shirts. Overall, making some bigger commitments. Jewelry is strong, not just because some of the prices of components have gone up, jewelry has been pretty good of late.

Mark Miller
Equity Research Analyst, William Blair

Great, thanks. New member sign-ups, I'm assuming, benefited during the first quarter due to the rise in gas prices during the summer, especially in California. To what degree was that material? As gas prices have come down, might that slow member sign-ups in the periods ahead?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

I don't think a lot of it relates to that. Yes, a little bit of it, when a newscaster talks about it in a given market, certainly that helps. When I look at the numbers, on a base of about 1.3 million new sign-ups in each of the prior two fiscal quarters. Again, when I talked about Australia and Japan last year, which opened just before Q1 '12 a year ago, into Q2 '12, Japan, a couple of units. Just those two markets represented almost 90,000 fewer sign-ups year-over-year because of the huge sign-ups we have in those markets during these six or eight weeks prior to opening, they're booked as of opening day. That, again, dwarfed anything else. The fact that we were flat year-over-year, given 90,000 less in those few locations, is pretty good.

Mark Miller
Equity Research Analyst, William Blair

Great, thanks. My final question is, previously you'd indicated 27-30 new clubs as your plan for this year. This morning you said in your prepared remarks 30. Is there anything I should read into that? Do you have higher visibility now for this year, or should I perceive it to be the same?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

I think probably a quarter ago, I talked about 25-27. Again, if pushed, I'd probably say 27-29. 30 is our budget, and they're all doable. There's always the chance that a couple will fall out, but I think we're getting more confident of those numbers. If my single point estimate was 27 or 26, now it's 28 or 29.

Mark Miller
Equity Research Analyst, William Blair

Okay, thanks, Richard.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Yeah.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Dan Bender with Costco.

Dan Bender
Analyst, Jefferies

It's Dan Bender with Jefferies. I had a couple of questions. First, on the membership growth. What do you think we should see, given the extraordinary sign-ups per club last year? What do you think average sign-ups per club should look like this year for the 30 or so stores that you're opening?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

I haven't looked at it that way. Our membership guy's not here. It ranges. Again, some of these locations overseas can be-- again, when I say opening day sign-ups, it's anything that was signed up, any paid member sign-ups during the six or eight weeks prior to opening when they've got the tabling activities outside of the construction site through opening day. In the U.S., in very strong Southern California markets, but we're plopping a unit in where we have a bunch of members already, it's just moving around where they shop, and shopping more frequently because they're closer to a location. We might have 3,000-6,000 as of opening day and another 5,000-10,000 or 8,000-12,000 over the next 12 months, that first year.

In a small new market, like a Tennessee or a Carolina unit, we might have 4,000-7,000 or 8,000 new sign-ups as of that first day, which is more than a high-volume L.A. unit when we open it. Again, it has nowhere to do with that. Again, over in Asia, we've seen numbers in the 25-50 range As of through opening day. Well over the company average for all members per warehouse, which is in the high 50s. I mean, for all warehouses, that have been open, whether they've been open a week or 29 years. There's no right number there.

Dan Bender
Analyst, Jefferies

If we look at existing clubs, how does the new member growth rate look like in existing or comp clubs?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

At the end of the day, again, I don't have that level of detail right in front of me, but when I've looked at it in the past, if our renewal rate is just under 90, let's say in the U.S. and Canada, just call it 90 for a moment for simplicity, we lost 10 and we gained 11. I mean, it's always up a little bit more than it was at the beginning of the year. That, of course, is cannibalized a little bit when we open in an existing market a little bit. Those new signups in those new markets help us. There's no major trend changes if you take out cannibalizing units and take out some of the crazy high numbers and some of the new Asia units or the like.

Dan Bender
Analyst, Jefferies

My last question was on SG&A, 7% comp, impressive. It got flattish SG&A year-over-year rate. As we look forward, do you think that, because of the accelerated store openings this year, that to get leverage on SG&A going forward this year, we need to be at 6 or 7? Or do you think you can achieve it at somewhat lower levels?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

I think there's a couple of things. Again, IT, my guess, will continue for these next few quarters. What I didn't mention, there's always four or five miscellaneous line items that generally should add up to zero. Some a little higher, some a little less. If I look in the quarter, I think, if I added up those types of things, it hit us by two or three basis points in the quarter versus being zero or helping us by a basis point. There's always going to be those things. I would think that's on average zero, not minus two or three, as it was this quarter. Again, when I looked at it, I was pleased that payroll, benefits are 70% of SG&A. The fact that we have increasing penetration overseas, that helps us a little bit just because it is on average lower SG&A.

Again, offset that probably for the next year in Japan as an example where we're cannibalizing the heck out of it.

Dan Bender
Analyst, Jefferies

Great. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Deborah Weinswig with Citi.

Deborah Weinswig
Analyst, Citi

Thanks so much, congratulations on a great quarter. Richard, obviously with the 30 clubs that you're targeting at this point in the game, that's very different from what we've seen in the recent past. Can you talk about the difference in real estate process to get those 30 clubs open in one year?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Well, we put a lot more people on the ground in countries. We've been working on it a long time, and I know it was forever before we even got to perform in terms of how many we say we're going to do and we actually do. If I look back two, three years ago, as an example, between Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Australia, all of that real estate activity was done with none of our real estate people on the ground in those countries. We now have one to two people in each of those countries. Same thing with Europe. We've always had it pretty much in the U.S. and Canada. The pipeline is more full. Again, as the time to get to opening in some of these countries are more difficult and takes a little longer anyway, we've built up the pipeline.

I think there'll be more confidence in the next few years of how many we can open based on the pipeline.

Deborah Weinswig
Analyst, Citi

Okay. In terms of looking at the 5% increase in frequency in the quarter, most retailers have been talking about traffic as being a major issue. Can you provide some additional color around your strong traffic numbers?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Well, my guess is, by the way, these months are a little strange for a couple of reasons. One, we had a 53-week fiscal year, so it ended on the September 2nd instead of late August. How did that affect Labor Day a little bit? Same thing at the other end of the quarter of, I think Thanksgiving was a week off and in terms of dating. All those things are in that number. My guess is that being just below five, and I mean just below five, is there a half a point in there or a little more that could have been just how all these things ran? Possibly. I'm not banking on a plus five, but certainly that gives me comfort that our high threes to low fours that we've seen.

Speaker 13

Yeah, plus 4.5.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

three and a half to four and a half, hopefully that'll continue. There's nothing that we see that should change that until it changes.

Deborah Weinswig
Analyst, Citi

All right.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

The other point is, as I've said over the years, the good news is it's a lot of little things. It's everything from the membership base and the demographics. It's certainly gas and fresh foods, certainly big screen TVs. I mean, there's lots of different things that we've been blessed by.

Deborah Weinswig
Analyst, Citi

Okay. Then you called out hardline sales as being quite a bit stronger as compared to recent quarters. You called out several specific categories. Was there any kind of key there, or was it quite broad?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

It was broad, recognizing what we call majors is a big category within hard lines. Cameras and TVs and the like. Jewelry is not a big percentage category but had decent numbers. Again, it was across the board. I think also, even in some of the little things, when we bring in items within the furniture category, we've tended to do well with them. Certainly on the soft line side, as I mentioned, in apparel, that's been a help.

Deborah Weinswig
Analyst, Citi

Okay. Then last-

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

I would say part of it is our aggressiveness in some of these categories.

Deborah Weinswig
Analyst, Citi

Okay. Then lastly, just could you give some color on how new clubs are performing in markets?

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

I'm sorry, what was the last part of that?

Deborah Weinswig
Analyst, Citi

How new clubs are performing, both domestically and internationally.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Of the 13 openings this fiscal year that we've opened, we got the 14th coming in a couple of days. I think overall, they've done as good, if not a little better than our overall plans. I mean, Craig walks in happy from the opening trips.

Deborah Weinswig
Analyst, Citi

Great. Well, thanks so much and best of luck.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Sure.

Operator

If you would like to ask an audio question, press *1 on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from the line of Michael Fein with Credit Suisse.

Trey Schorgl
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Hi, this is actually Trey Schorgl in for Michael. We were just wondering if you think there will be any impact from the retroactive income tax increase that was passed last month in California.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

No.

Trey Schorgl
Analyst, Credit Suisse

No. Okay. That's all. Thank you.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Okay. Why don't we just take two more questions?

Operator

Again, if you would like to ask a question, press star 1. There are no further questions at this time.

Richard Galanti
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Costco Wholesale Corporation

Well, thank you everyone, and have a good holiday.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference.