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Earnings Call: Q3 2020

Nov 5, 2020

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the third quarter 2020 Comstock Resources Incorporated earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session.

To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star one on your telephone. As a reminder, today's program may be recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's program, Mr. Jay Allison, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

Jay Allison
Chairman and CEO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Thank you. Thank you for the introduction this morning. Again, I want to thank everybody that's taken their time to listen to the story today. I know we have a lot of you, a lot of you are really good friends, have been forever and ever and ever.

Today is an important day, really, in our corporate life. We're all human and we do understand the third quarter results were somewhat disappointing. Quite frankly, I can speak for me and for everybody else in the management team, we hate it.

They are disappointing for the reasons that you're aware of. I mean, they're all logical reasons. They're still disappointing. Shut-ins, curtailments related to Hurricane Laura, non-op curtailments, there's a litany of other small reasons.

I think our goal this morning is to share what we see for the fourth quarter 2020 as well as 2021 and 2022, and to show you, our stakeholders, how we plan to de-lever our balance sheet in those years by using our strength of our peer leading high margins and low costs we've created in the Haynesville in a period of time, quite frankly, when the outlook for natural gas is extremely bullish, really the most bullish it has been in over 10 years.

Our job in the next 45 minutes, really today, is to avoid any disappointments in the future, and show you how our high margins in the Haynesville, coupled with the right size capital program over the next years, can de-lever the balance sheet and expand our trading multiples so that we all are winners.

All based on the commodity gas price outlook that we see today. Thank you for trusting us, and if we have dented that trust any, please know that the entire Comstock team will work hard to earn it back and even more by giving you 100% of our best as we always have. Now I'll start into our third quarter results, and then we'll get to the Q&A, and we'll answer any question that you have and be accountable for it.

Welcome to the Comstock Resources third quarter 2020 financial and operating results conference call. You can view a slide presentation during or after this call by going to our website at www.comstockresources.com and downloading the quarterly result presentation. There you'll find a presentation entitled Third Quarter 2020 Results. I am Jay Allison, Chief Executive Officer of Comstock.

With me is Roland Burns, our President and Chief Financial Officer, Dan Harrison, our Chief Operating Officer, and Ron Mills, our VP of Finance and Investor Relations. Please refer to slide two in our presentation to note that our discussions today will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of securities laws.

While we believe the expectations in such statements to be reasonable, there can be no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. If you're following this, you can turn to slide three. On slide three, we discuss the highlights of the third quarter.

November is the first month where we finally exited the period of very low natural gas prices brought on by the warm winter we had, as the November natural gas price closed at almost $3 after hitting a low of $1.50 this summer.

The low production levels brought on by the actions of disciplined natural gas producers, combined with the decline in associated gas resulting from low oil prices, have caused the 2021 future natural gas prices to improve substantially. Since January this year, we have been focused on reducing our drilling activity and deferring completion activity.

Those actions allowed us to generate free cash flow even with the very, very low prices we were receiving for our production. The reduced activity we had in the first half of the year, combined with the third quarter hurricane activity in our region, negatively impacted our production this quarter, as you see. With the stage set for higher prices later this year and into 2021, we collectively decided that we would go back to work in the third quarter.

We added two additional operated drilling rigs to bring our working rigs back up to six, which is where we were at the beginning of the year, and currently have three frac crews working to catch up on the backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells. Since our last report, we have put 15 new wells on production, which have a per well IP rate of 26 million cubic feet per day.

We did have a rocky quarter, as I mentioned on the production front, which partially was self-inflicted, as a ramp up of activity drove our shut-in percentage up to 7% in the quarter. The higher spending in the quarter reflects restarting a program we put on hold in the second quarter, but it is the right move as we look forward to improved gas prices that we're in.

We did achieve our goal of reducing well cost to just under $1,000 per lateral foot, which is significantly lower than any other Haynesville operator. With recent changes to our completion design, we expect well cost to increase a little bit as Dan Harrison will go over later. While it made sense to bring well costs down as low as we did.

With weak gas prices this year, with gas prices closer to $3 + now, it makes sense to invest in a little more proppant, as we believe the wells will have a higher return. As we will discuss more today, we recently decided to increase our completion activity planned in the fourth quarter by running an additional frac crew, which moves up the completion of seven wells that we had planned to complete in 2021.

The additional investment will pay off in 2021 to allow us to have a little higher production to take advantage of the higher gas prices. In the third quarter, we completed a follow-on $300 million notes offering to further pay down borrowings on our bank credit facility. We reduced our outstanding bank borrowings from 57% of availability to just 36% of our availability. By freeing up the bank credit facility, we increased our financial liquidity to $928 million.

The low oil and natural gas prices, combined with low production in the quarter, did impact the profits we generated in the quarter. Our oil and gas sales, including hedges, were $212 million. Our adjusted EBITDAX came in at $148 million, and our operating cash flow was $93 million, or $0.38 per share. We reported an adjusted net loss of $13.8 million, or $0.06 a share.

With higher production and stronger natural gas prices, we anticipate returning to profitability in the fourth quarter, which is now. I will have Roland go over the financial results in more detail. Roland?

Roland Burns
President and CFO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

All right. Thanks, Jay. On slide four, we summarize our financial results for the third quarter of this year. Our production for the third quarter totaled 103 Bcf of natural gas and 354,000 barrels of oil. Total production of 105 Bcfe was 4% higher than the third quarter of 2019. Our oil and gas sales, including the realized hedging gains, were $212 million, which was 15% lower than 2019. This was all driven by the lower oil and gas prices we had in the quarter.

Oil prices in the quarter averaged $33.52 per barrel. That's with the hedging gains we had in the quarter. Our realized gas price, including hedging gains, was $1.95 per Mcf. Our natural gas price realization overall was down 14%, which offset the production growth that we had in the quarter.

Adjusted EBITDAX came in at $148 million, which was about 22% lower than the third quarter of 2019. Operating cash flow of $93 million was about 35% lower. We did report a net loss of $130.9 million for the third quarter, or $0.57 per share. Most of that loss is attributable to the $155.6 million unrealized loss on the mark-to-market of our hedge positions.

That is all caused by the substantial improvement to future natural gas prices since the end of the second quarter. Our adjusted net income, excluding the unrealized mark-to-market hedging loss, certain other unusual items, was a loss of $13.8 million or $0.06 per diluted share for the quarter. In slide five, we summarize our financial results for the first nine months of this year.

Production for the first nine months totaled 349 Bcfe, including about 1.2 million barrels of oil, which is 90% higher than our production for the same period in 2019. Of course, most of this increase is due to the acquisition of Covey Park Energy, which we completed in July of 2019.

Oil and gas sales, including realized hedge gains, were $716 million, 40% higher than the same period in 2019. Oil prices so far this year have averaged $39.84 per barrel, and our gas price is $1.96 per Mcf, both including the hedging gains we had. Overall, this is 18% lower than the prices we had for natural gas in the same period in 2019. Our adjusted EBITDAX came in at $511 million, which was 35% higher than 2019. Operating cash flow was $367 million, that's 31% higher than 2019.

We did report a net loss of $160.9 million for the first nine months of this year, or $0.77 per share. Again, this was due to the mark-to-market loss, the unrealized mark-to-market loss on our hedge book. Adjusted net income, excluding the unrealized hedging losses and other usual items, was $12.9 million, or a net income of $0.06 per diluted share.

Third quarter production was adversely impacted by a higher shut-in level than normal, as you can see on slide six. 7% of our natural gas production was shut in the third quarter as compared to 4% in the second quarter. Much of that shut-in is due to offset frac activity, either by our simultaneous operations or other Haynesville operators.

We also temporarily shut in a portion of our production over the course of about a week due to the impact of Hurricane Laura that caused widespread power outages in our region. Also in September, for a good part of the month of September, and then carrying over really into the first 12- 14 days or so of October, we did experience wide differentials in the daily cash market at Perryville, and then other index is in our kind of region, in the southern kind of Gulf region. This was all due to concerns that the natural gas market had over the high storage levels as we exit the period of storage injections.

The only gas that's really impacted by these daily prices is what we call our swing natural gas that was not sold during bid week and are not part of our base load sales. We chose to restrict some of the new wells that were coming on in September, and then given this very low price that this extra swing gas was getting.

These high differentials in the month of September and also the declining overall index prices in that volatile month did cause our overall differential in the quarter to widen by $0.10 in the third quarter. This situation did continue into October, really only the first couple of weeks of October. We took an action in the very first part of October to actually curtail, for price reasons, 300 million a day of our production.

Overall, we did this for about 11 days. That action, along with the startup of LNG facilities, coming back after the hurricanes, really helped reduce the concerns about storage filling up. Then we saw about mid-October, we saw the daily cash prices go back into a normal relationship and differentials narrow, and then we put all that gas really back into the market.

I think as October has finished out and as we enter November, we've seen a very healthy situation, which has been supported by very favorable kind of injections to storage and even today, a withdrawal. We also saw that obviously our non-operated oil production, which is primarily located in the Bakken region, also has continued to experience substantial curtailments, which carried through in the third quarter.

We had about 12% of our oil production that was shut in by the operators that operate it due to the very low oil prices or other issues in the Bakken region. On slide seven, we cover our hedging program. For the first nine months of this year, we had 50% of our gas volume hedged, which increased our realized gas price to $1.96 per Mcfe from the $1.60 that we actually received from selling our production.

We also had 86% of our oil volumes hedged, which increased our realized oil price to $39.84 versus the $30.35 per barrel that we actually received. Overall, during that period, we had realized hedge gains of $133 million.

With the improvement in future natural gas prices, we also took that opportunity to continue to add to our hedge book, but really at higher levels than we'd hedged before, and then also using collars. We've added about $10 million a day of natural gas for the fourth quarter since we last reported earnings, and we added about $38 million a day of natural gas collars in 2021, and about $12 million a day of collars in 2022, which gives us a good protection level, but also gives us exposure to the higher prices.

As you look ahead for the fourth quarter of 2020, we have 663 million cubic feet of our gas and about 2,800 barrels per day of our oil hedged. The weighted average floor price of our remaining 2020 gas prices is $2.61.

For 2021, we have natural gas hedges covering about 836 million cubic feet of our 2021 production. We're on target to having 60%-70% of our 2021 production hedged, and we'll also work as we have this improving gas strip to work with to hedge our 2022 volumes appropriately.

On slide eight, we detail our operating cost per Mcfe produced. Overall, these were pretty comparable to the second quarter. Our operating cost averaged $0.55 in the third quarter as compared to our second quarter rate of $0.54. Gathering costs were $0.21, production ad valorem taxes averaged $0.09, and field level costs were $0.25.

The one thing we did do this quarter in order to improve the comparability to us and other producers, was to reclass our ad valorem taxes that used to be showed as part of just lifting costs and include those in production taxes. You'll see that if you're kind of tracking the old numbers. That's really about $0.01. Not a big change, but we think that just makes us more comparable to our peers.

On slide nine, we detail our corporate overhead for Mcfe, and our cash G&A costs were $0.07 in the third quarter, which is slightly up from the second quarter, but that's mainly due to the lower production level in the quarter.

Slide 10, we detail the depreciation, depletion, and amortization per Mcfe produced. Our DD&A averaged $0.95 in the third quarter, which was about $0.08 higher than the second quarter. Most of that impact is due to the much lower kind of SEC type prices that are kind of backward looking that we use to do amortization with.

On slide 11, we recap our third quarter and the first nine months of 2020 capital expenditure program. We spent $110 million on development activities in the third quarter, and $94 million of that was related to our operated Haynesville Shale properties.

For all of 2020 so far, we've spent $316 million, including $259 million on the operated Haynesville properties. We've drilled 36 or 28.6 net operated horizontal Haynesville wells so far this year, and we also completed 9.6 net wells that we drilled in 2019.

We've spent $56 million on non-operated activity and for other activity so far this year. We generated $367 million in cash flow for the first nine months of this year, resulting in free cash flow of $30 million after we paid the dividends on the preferred shares. After dropping our operated rig count to four rigs in April, which was down from six back in January, we've increased our operated rig count back to six rigs.

In the fourth quarter, we expect to spend about $150 million-$170 million this year to drill 17 or 16.4 net operated Haynesville wells, and then to turn to sales 22 or 17.6 net Haynesville wells. We made the decision recently to keep a third frac crew busy in the fourth quarter, which we originally planned to release and then bring back in early 2020.

This does add about $30 million to our 2020 spending, and the reason for it was to accelerate the completion of seven wells that before we planned to complete in 2021. This is in order to take advantage of the higher gas prices, especially that we see for the first quarter of 2021.

It was a decision based on if we'd kept our original schedule, we compared that to keeping this third rig, which was performing well for us, and operations asked us to look at that, and we said we actually make $15 million more by accelerating that completion into the highest gas price months on the futures curve. We said that's the right thing to do.

If you look at the full year for 2020, if you combine the fourth quarter with that, we now expect to spend about $450 million-$500 million this year, which would have drilled 53 or 45 net operated Haynesville wells and turned 55 or 42.2 net operated Haynesville wells to sales.

We also plan to participate in 18 or 1.3 net non-operated Haynesville wells and turn 3.8 net wells to sales. At the end of this year, we now expect to have about 16 or 15.4 net DUCs or drilled in uncompleted wells. As you look ahead to 2021, we expect to increase spending a little bit over the 2020 level in response to these higher natural gas prices that we see.

We expect to spend between $525 million-$575 million and drill 70 or 56.5 net operated Haynesville wells and turn 65 of those wells or 56.6 net wells to sales in the year. Our initial plans right now are to add a seventh operated rig, and we would do that in the second quarter of next year.

Obviously, as we get to that point, we'll assess the natural gas market in our region and decide if that's still a great course of action. If not, as we've shown in the past, we don't have long-term commitments for drilling or completion services or any kind of volumes to meet. It's clearly an economic decision on when we spend the CapEx, and as we did this year, we can react to the market and adjust our level of spending as is appropriate.

We still remain focused on generating significant free cash flow, and we see next year as having a bounty of that with the plans we have. We target to have a minimum of at least $200 million of free cash flow as we plan for any future capital spending. On slide 12, we show our balance sheet at the end of the third quarter.

During the third quarter, as Jay mentioned, we issued $300 million of new unsecured notes to term out a portion of the borrowings outstanding under our credit facility. We ended the quarter with about $500 million drawn on our credit facility, and we do expect to continue to pay that down with free cash flow generated during the rest of 2020 and into 2021. With a quarter-ending cash position of $28 million, our current liquidity now stands at $928 million.

We have just over $2.25 billion of senior notes outstanding, that's comprised of $619 million of our 7.5% senior notes due in 2025 and $1.65 billion of our 9.75% senior notes due in 2026. I'll now turn it over to Dan to cover the third quarter drilling results in more detail.

Daniel Harrison
COO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Okay, thanks, Roland. Over on slide 13, this is just our updated outline of our current acreage position, which has increased this quarter up to 309,000 net acres. We control the majority of the acreage with a 91% operated position and have an average working interest in the acreage of 81%. We currently have 1,943 net future drilling locations identified on the acreage, with 96% of the acreage is currently held by production.

Since resuming our completion program at the very end of June, we have turned 15 additional wells to sales. This now brings our total D&C count up to 252 wells since early 2015. Like Roland mentioned, we have added two additional rigs since our last call, and we're now running a total of six rigs. Due to the break in the frac activity in Q2, we started out the third quarter with a total of 21 DUCs.

We've since worked that down to 16 wells currently. Our go-forward DUC count should remain roughly at this level through year-end and into next year. We started out the quarter with two frac crews. We ramped up to three frac crews in early September, when we will continue to run these three frac crews through the end of the year.

Based on our current six-rig schedule to seven rigs next year, we anticipate running on average 2.4 frac crews in 2021. Over on slide 14, this is our latest Haynesville Bossier itemized drilling inventory at the end of the third quarter. Our gross operated inventory currently stands at 2,401 locations, with our net operated inventory at 1,763 locations. This represents a 73% average working interest on our operated inventory.

Our non-operated inventory is at 1,352 gross locations, with the net non-operated inventory at 180 wells, and this represents a 13% average working interest. For the gross operated inventory, we have 494 short laterals and 905 medium laterals and 1,002 long laterals. Breaking this down by the gross operated inventory by zone, we have 54% of our locations are in the Haynesville and 46% are in the Bossier.

We are focused on converting our short laterals to long laterals. While the total number of locations has not grown, the number of 8,000 foot and longer Haynesville laterals has increased to 420, up from 389 at the end of the second quarter. This inventory provides the company with over 30 years of drilling locations based on our current activity levels.

Slide 15 is a map outline and summary of the 15 new wells that we've turned to sale since the last call. The new wells were spread out fairly evenly across our Greenwood, Waskom, our Logansport and Elm Grove acreage. The wells were tested at rates of 16 million a day to 35 million a day with a 26 million per day average IP.

The wells were drilled with lateral lengths ranging from 6,049 feet up to 9,869 feet, and we averaged 9,088 feet for the quarter. All these completions were completed with 2,800 pounds per foot. As mentioned earlier, we have three frac crews working today, and we'll maintain that level of completion activity through the end of the year. The current DUC count, as before, stands at 16, and that should maintain through the end of this year and into next year also. Slide 16 is a chart.

This illustrates the progress we continue to make driving down our D&C costs. These results track only our medium to long-term laterals, which have the lateral lengths of greater than 7,000 feet. Our D&C costs continue to trend down in the third quarter and are starting to flatten. We again achieved our lowest all-in D&C cost to date at $998 a foot.

Contributing to this low D&C cost were two record low cost wells that average less than $900 a foot. This D&C cost is 17% lower than the same quarter a year ago. It represents a 2% cost reduction from the previous quarter. The story's really the same. Our current service cost, coupled with our really high completion efficiency and the smaller jobs, has really been the driver for the low cost.

Since the last call, we've generated enough production history on the earliest wells completed with the reduced frac intensity to evaluate performance. We have observed a slight reduction in our EURs, which we expected to a small degree, and which made sense, with the low gas price environment we were in earlier in the year.

Starting in September, we have shifted back up to our original job size in the 3,500 lbs-3,600 lbs per foot range as we have entered a much better gas market. Based on our most recent well costs, we're still aiming to keep our costs relatively flat in the 1,000-1,050 foot range. Going forward, the market demand on services will play a large part in our cost structure.

With that being said, we do believe our current cost structure will maintain through the end of the year, but we acknowledge that us and the rest of the industry may be facing some upward pricing pressure in 2021.

That kind of recaps the operations. I'm now going to turn it back over to Jay for some final comments.

Jay Allison
Chairman and CEO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Thank you, Dan, and also, Roland, thank you. If everybody would go to slide 17. I'll go over this slide and then turn it over to Ron for some guidance. I'd like to direct you to slide 17, where we summarize our outlook for the rest of this year and our initial thoughts on next year. For the first half of this year, we've remained primarily focused on free cash flow generation and managing the company through the low oil and natural gas price environment we've been in.

While natural gas prices remain relatively low through October due to elevated levels of gas and storage, the outlook for natural gas has improved substantially for late 2020 and 2021, driven by expectations for significant declines in natural gas supply due to a continued reduction in natural gas-directed drilling and completion activity and less associated gas production from related activity in oil basins resulting from the collapse of oil prices.

Starting in the third quarter, we went back to work and resumed completion operations with three frac crews in order to work through the backlog of DUCs that Dan had talked about. We've added two additional drilling rigs to generate production growth late this year and, more importantly, in 2021 to coincide with improved natural gas prices. We also recently made the decision to accelerate well completions originally planned in 2021.

We're keeping a third frac crew working in the fourth quarter, which moves about $30 million to our 2020 budget from 2021 in order to complete seven wells three months earlier. The rationale is that we can produce the gas related to these wells earlier in 2021 in the higher gas price months.

The strength that we lean on this year is our industry-leading low cost structure and well economics. With all our focus on reducing activity and delaying startup of the new wells, we expect to have about a 2% pro forma production growth this year. Next year, we expect a balanced growth of probably 6%-8% while generating substantial free cash flow that we'll use to pay down our debt and reduce our financial leverage.

We've hedged almost half of our production over the remainder of 2020 and 64% of our 2021 production and have strong financial liquidity of $928 million following our recent bond offering. With that, now we'll turn it over to Ron to provide some specific guidance for the rest of the year. Ron?

Ron Mills
VP of Finance and Investor Relations, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Thanks, Jay. On slide 18, we provide financial guidance for the fourth quarter of 2020 and our initial guidance for 2021. This guidance reflects the impact of the timing of our drilling and completion schedule, as well as the shut-ins discussed earlier in this call. For the fourth quarter, we anticipate spending $150 million-$170 million on our drilling and completion activities, which will result in 2020 total spending being $450 million-$500 million.

That's higher than we discussed in the second quarter call due to laterals getting longer, some additional workover activity, some non-operated activity, and some minor leasing costs. Fourth quarter 2020 production is expected to average 1.15 Bcf-1.25 Bcf per day, and our 2020 production is expected to average at the low end of our prior guidance of 1.25 Bcf-1.3 Bcf a day, despite the impacts of the shut-ins and the hurricane impacts previously discussed.

Looking ahead to next year, we're providing initial CapEx guidance of $525 million-$575 million and production guidance of 1.325 Bcf-1.425 Bcf a day, which anticipates the addition of the seventh rig by the middle part of next year.

LOE is expected to average $0.21-$0.25. Gathering and transportation costs are expected to average $0.23-$0.27. The production and ad valorem taxes are expected to average $0.08-$0.10. Our DD&A rate is expected to be $0.90-$1.00, and the cash G&A is expected to be in the $0.05-$0.07 range on a unit basis. For the rest of the call, we'll turn it over for questions and answers.

Operator

Certainly. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question at this time, please press star then one. Our first question comes from the line of Derrick Whitfield from Stifel. Your question please.

Derrick Whitfield
Analyst, Stifel

Thanks, and good morning, all.

Jay Allison
Chairman and CEO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Good morning.

Derrick Whitfield
Analyst, Stifel

All right. With regard to the 2021 outlook, would it be fair to assume you'll see minimal production from the seventh rig you're adding in 2021, the real impact will be felt in 2022, where that activity increase could sustain growth in that, call it 6%-8% range?

Roland Burns
President and CFO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Yes. This is Roland. Derrick, that's a good observation. I think really, if you look at the way that shale companies, especially how we're developing the shale, the capital that we spend today really doesn't generate production until four to six months later because we always drill on pads just because it increases the drilling efficiency so much.

You have two to three wells kind of waiting before they come online. I think as we look ahead into 2022, we wanted to create some guidance that even though it didn't add a lot of production to 2021, and probably the action we did to actually spend additional dollars in the fourth quarter probably has a great impact on 2021. Adding an extra rig, there really isn't a lot of production that gets on in time to really move the numbers.

What it does, I think we've set the stage for a very sustainable program into 2022, versus having a higher growth rate in 2021 and then going back to hardly any growth in 2022. I think that given the outlook for natural gas and the company's kind of exiting this period of very low natural gas prices and being very defensive, we wanted to set a more sustainable program out there that makes sense for the overall achievement of our goals, which is to get leverage below two and use the strength, like Jay pointed out, of the very high margins that these wells can generate in this natural gas price environment.

We're sensitive to the fact that the market doesn't like additional spending and growth. I think if you focus really on that we're a natural gas company and the outlook is so much stronger next year, it's not the same case as an oil company that's looking at a more uncertain commodity and not a favorable kind of future.

We think it's the best action for the company as to how we achieve our goals, and it also sets expectations into something that we think we can really outperform next year and also outperform in 2022. It's not overly short-term focused on just getting the maximum results next year.

Jay Allison
Chairman and CEO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Well, again, our goal is to figure out on a quarterly basis how we should spend our capital dollars. That's why we've looked at 2021 commodity prices. We've looked at fourth quarter 2020, and we said we should keep a frac crew busy. We should lean into 2021 because, again, if you look at the advantage we have, I mean, we have advantaged access to the demand market of the Gulf Coast.

We're favorably exposed to Henry Hub, right? When we look at that, we need to lean into that market that we have. You see the LNG exports. I mean, they're at an all-time high right now. We think with the weather where it is and with commodity prices where they are, where our leverage where it is, and our low cost, I mean, Dan has given us low costs and high margins.

We've got to give you an outlook for the fourth quarter as well as 2021, 2022, so we don't have any disappointing quarterly results to you again, period. That's what we're doing today. We're correcting everything.

Derrick Whitfield
Analyst, Stifel

Thanks, Dan. Well, that certainly makes sense. As my follow-up, referencing slide six, you guys were clearly impacted by several uncontrollable events in Q3. As you look out to Q4 and then into 2021, how do you envision that shut-in metric trending over that period?

Daniel Harrison
COO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Yeah, that's a good question. I mean, a large impact is always the simultaneous operations, which happens now because you have to protect your offset production from offset frac activity, either we create it or one of our neighbors creates it. Yeah, I think it's probably, realistically, a 5% number, pretty flat.

I mean, especially if we keep a more consistent program, I think it stays more consistent and doesn't have the kind of gyrations. The unknown is there power issues or pipeline issues that are caused by other events? Then, I think for the first time ever, really in this late September-October period, as a major producer in the Haynesville Basin, we, for the first time, withheld gas from the market because of the market struggling with the storage levels before it became comfortable with that level.

It's the same thing that the large producers did in Appalachia, and it's our responsibility to do that. Our actions allowed that market to recover pretty quickly. Also allowed us to realize, instead of realizing a very low price for the gas, to save it and then produce it a week later at a higher price.

I think we're also going to have to be mindful of that in controlling the flow of gas, especially the swing gas that's open into a market. Every year so far, there has been a sensitive period for gas as it exits the injection period and storage fills up, and this October, it's been that transition now. We had it last year in 2019, but not as severe, and then this year too.

The good news is it seems like we've made the good adjustment through it, and operators like us responded and very proactive to keeping that situation workable.

Jay Allison
Chairman and CEO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

I think you won't see the impact of the private equity-backed Haynesville players, but they'll have the same type of shut-in issue. I think the good thing for Comstock, you notice, we did add about 4,000 or so acres to our footprint, so we've got 309,000 acres. We do spread our drilling program out north, south, east, west, both in Texas and Louisiana.

When you look at our drilling program, we kind of have a pool of information from the offset operators, and we figure out when they're going to drill, when they're going to complete. We try to toggle all of our programs around because of our large footprint to not have quite as much exposure to these shut-ins.

Again, I think Dan will tell you that it's probably 5%, if I want to say five, and that's kind of where we are right now, even with our footprint. It will. We've put out our model and our guidance. Ron has done that, and he's kind of stuck that type of handicap in for the future.

Ron Mills
VP of Finance and Investor Relations, Comstock Resources Incorporated

We didn't focus on it much, Derrick, in our conversation earlier like we normally do. We do have initiatives going on in 2021 that we're going to be able to really get less and less gas sold at Perryville. That's more vulnerable, too, especially for gas coming out of basin like it did, and disrupting that basis.

We've always had a goal of removing ourselves from that market, and I think next year, there's several initiatives. The big one, obviously, is the Katy Line opening up. We've also been working with our midstream partners to give us some other ways to bypass Perryville and move gas more to the Gulf, or at least have the flexibility to respond to that.

Derrick Whitfield
Analyst, Stifel

That's great. Extremely helpful. Thanks for your time, guys.

Jay Allison
Chairman and CEO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Yes. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Don McIntosh from T. Price. Your question please.

Don McIntosh
Analyst, T. Price

Morning, Jay.

Jay Allison
Chairman and CEO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Morning

Don McIntosh
Analyst, T. Price

provided so far. I had a question. I understand the pickup in activity and that attacking leverage can be a little easier from the EBITDA side sometimes. How, under this new program, where do you see leverage over 2021 and 2022 and targeting that? We've talked about two and a half times within the next year, but getting down under about 2x . Does this get you there faster or what do you see in that?

Jay Allison
Chairman and CEO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Yeah, it does. Roland gave you some numbers, I think. We will de-lever faster, and it's all because of the market demand and the prices we get at Henry Hub. No, we do de-lever. When we had all of our one-on-one conference calls, we said, the only reason we would add a rig or complete wells earlier is if it allowed us to de-lever quicker. That's the reason you do it. Roland, you have a number?

Roland Burns
President and CFO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Sure. I think we get very close to getting down to our 2x as we finish up 2022 with this plan. I think by investing a little bit into 2021, it actually allows us to hit that goal there versus just being shy of it if we let 2022 just have more of a flat production profile.

Again, it's been erratic for the company, obviously, to go from growing at a 34% rate back in 2019 to 2% this year, is probably what it's going to end up being. Then back to more sustainable levels, the 6%-8%. We're really targeting to try to get to more of a 5% growth. To balance some growth to improve EBITDAX to get that leverage ratio down faster.

At the same time, though, also reduce the overall level of debt and keep a lot of free cash flow as a big target. The strip today gives us that opportunity to achieve all of that with this program in this two-year period.

Jay Allison
Chairman and CEO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

That gives us a growth in 2022 of maybe 5%. What our goal today, again, it's to reset the program for the fourth quarter 2020 and for 2021, 2022. That's exactly our goal. That was a great question. It is all about de-levering with where we are and the locations we have and the profits that we make.

Don McIntosh
Analyst, T. Price

All right. Thank you. For my follow-up, you mentioned in the call maybe moving to a little bigger profit. What are the kind of drivers behind that decision? Is that more of an EUR base or is that more to bring volumes on faster at the front of the curve to kind of try to capture this higher price environment that we look like we're heading into?

Daniel Harrison
COO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Yeah. This is Dan. Yeah, you hit on it there at that first point. I mean, it's all EUR driven, which basically is hand-in-hand with our performance. Back earlier this year when we went down to these smaller jobs, we were in the lower gas prices, and we did anticipate maybe a 5% reduction in EUR. Which we ran the numbers, that made sense to basically test that size.

We're seeing EURs more like maybe 8%-10% smaller. This is really for the wells maybe that are over in that state line area, the Greenwood-Waskom area. When you run it at the higher gas prices, it's clearly you need to pump the bigger jobs, which also means you're pumping more water. It's just a matter of the economics. The wells deliver a better PV10 value when you do that at the higher gas prices.

Jay Allison
Chairman and CEO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

I think it's a good question, too, because we intentionally, we set the bookends. We look at companies that use 5,000, 6,000, 7,000 pounds of proppant. We didn't think that would be what we needed to do. We dropped down to the lower bookends of this 2,400, 2,500, 2,600 pounds, and water, like Dan said. We've kind of tested the bottom at a low gas price.

You should do that because you do save precious dollars right up front. When you have a gas price of $2.93, $3.10, $3.20 and you look at the PV value and you look at how quick these wells pay out and they increase volume, then it's easier to say the right thing to do is to spend a little bit more money.

We're still in that $1,000-$1,050 per completed foot to have a much better performance, which drives our leverage.

It's our job to tell you that, too. We didn't try to hide that. We said we should probably go back up there because we did test it and we know what we need to do. Great question.

Don McIntosh
Analyst, T. Price

All right. Thank you all.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Umang Choudhary from Goldman Sachs. Your question, please.

Umang Choudhary
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hi, good morning. You mentioned that gas prices is driving your decision to grow EBITDA to meet your leverage goals. Can you philosophically talk to what would drive a shift to lower activity and spending in favor of more free cash flow? Is there a gas price point at which you will reduce activity? How has that price point evolved given recent reductions to well cost?

Roland Burns
President and CFO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Well, I think that it is definitely gas prices that are a factor in how we look at the whole picture. Obviously if gas prices are not what the futures market is anticipating for 2021, and they underperform that, we would definitely reassess our spending. Because I think the free cash flow goal, we're going to maintain it. I think that is definitely a big factor.

I think we've gotten, overall, as the market seems to be fairly comfortable that at least in 2021, the stage is set for this $3 kind of area gas price. We'll certainly reassess adding a rig by mid-year next year if it's not at that level anymore. We're not at all locked into one strategy.

We wanted to present more of a balanced program that didn't just focus on 2021 and absolutely maximize 2021, which the six-rig program really can do. That comes at the expense of 2022 and you stop making the progress towards your leverage goals in 2022 if you don't make any investment for it. That was the goal of today.

Jay Allison
Chairman and CEO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Roland, again, the beauty is, we don't have any firm transportation obligations that cause us to drill. We don't have any minimum volume commitments that cause us to drill. 96% of our acreage is held by production. Our CapEx budget is just driven internally by what we need to do to improve our balance sheet and pay down our debt.

Roland Burns
President and CFO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

We'll be very reactive to the changing environment. As we were this year playing defense in the first half of this year, we could be very reactive because we don't have long-term obligations that drive us to have to drill any wells at all.

Jay Allison
Chairman and CEO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Yeah. The other thing people forget, our denominator is the consistency of our wells. We have 30 years of inventory at this rate. Usually people worry about the quality of your locations. Nobody ever asks us about that. We've taken that off the table. They just say, "How can you de-lever?" Where we are, we're the only pure Haynesville size company at this size.

We say, well, again, our advantage is this access to the Gulf Coast. We do have great gas prices, so let's use our strength. We can't act like another company in another basin. We've got to act like the company we are in our basin. That's why we've got to tell you we're going to reset the whole program for the fourth quarter of this year and 2021, 2022.

We also tell you that whatever we need to do, if we need to shut in swing gas because prices are low, you've now seen it, we've done that. We demonstrate that we will do that. If we need to go back to lower profit, prices are lower, we'll do that. We need to go back to higher profit, then we'll do that. Our goal is to be very transparent with you as a partner as we create even a greater company.

Umang Choudhary
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thank you for the color. That's really helpful. Thank you.

Jay Allison
Chairman and CEO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Yes, sir. Thank you for the time and the question.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, if you do have a question at this time, please press star then one. Our next question comes from the line of Kevin Kunun from Citi. Your question, please.

Kevin Kunun
Analyst, Citi

Hey, good morning. Just a quick one on 2021 expectations. Obviously as you and a few others increase growth next year in light of higher prices, what are you looking at as far as non-op spending for the year? Are you seeing any of those private equity backed companies kind of gearing up for higher production growth next year as well?

Roland Burns
President and CFO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Yeah, we have very limited touch points with other companies. The non-op part of our portfolio has always been fairly small. Basically, we really like to do acreage trades to try to even make it smaller.

I think that we actually finished some really good acreage trades that you saw kind of come through the location numbers and acreage numbers this quarter with GeoSouthern and Indigo that really improved our overall lateral lengths overall, and reduced our non-op potential activity in the future, and also actually gave us more locations in our very best, lowest transportation cost area. It was really a big win, and I'm sure that we also met their goals and things they were trying to accomplish. Yeah, we still see non-op as not a big part of our budget.

Frankly, if a non-op project doesn't meet our high expectations, we've now got good partners that want to buy those interests. We're very tuned on saying, "Hey, if we can't generate a really good return from non-op, we'll sell down the wellbore to people that are interested in investing in that." I think we probably always have budgeted. Ron, you might say we have potentially $35 million-$40 million of non-op activity that we kind of always expect to have.

Ron Mills
VP of Finance and Investor Relations, Comstock Resources Incorporated

That's about right. It is typically average, kind of in that 6%-8% of the total budget.

Roland Burns
President and CFO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

We're very proactive at trying to disarm that before it becomes a big number. We just never like being in non-owned properties, generally.

Kevin Kunun
Analyst, Citi

Right. Understood. That's it for me. Thank you for the time.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Phillips Johnston from Capital One. Your question, please.

Phillips Johnston
Analyst, Capital One

Hey, guys. Thank you. I also wanted to ask about the 2021 program. I think it was only a month or two ago, you guys were talking about running six rigs throughout next year and growing only by 3%-5% for about $450 million in CapEx. Now it sounds like you're talking about adding a seventh rig in the second quarter, spending closer to $550 million and growing by 6%-8%.

Sounds like the change in tack mainly relates to just the stronger gas prices that you're seeing on the strip, and obviously that helps your leverage ratio, if the strip plays out. Of course, that's only if the strip sort of holds true or if you actually hedge the strip. I guess my question is, why chase those higher prices that you're seeing with higher activity?

Why not just let the higher prices flow straight to the bottom line in terms of additional free cash flow? If you like the prices, and actually want to grow by that amount, why not just hedge the majority of your production for both 2021 and 2022?

Roland Burns
President and CFO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Well, I think it's because for 2021, I think your suggestion would be a way to optimize it. We think that's very short-term thinking. If you're focused on 2022, I think people will become more focused on it as we get in the middle of 2021. The under-investment really means no growth in production in 2022.

I think that we're really making that additional investment really for 2022. We can defer it. If the prices are weaker, we won't add the seventh rig. We're not committing to it in advance at all. It is to present you a more balanced program in 2021 that's sustainable versus a program in 2021 that's absolutely just maxed out to produce short-term results.

Before you know it, you'll be in 2022, and then all of a sudden it'll be like, well, you're no longer making any progress toward de-levering because you haven't made enough investment.

Jay Allison
Chairman and CEO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

We thought we would level it out. Again, that's accelerating a little bit of CapEx in the fourth quarter to level out the beginning of 2021 and be really consistent when prices are high. Right now, we have 64% hedged in 2021, then propel you over into 2022 with a 5% production growth. At the same time, we do think that we balance two things. We balance the growth properly, and yet we've delevered quicker at the same time.

It's not that we have to make a big correction sometime in the latter part of 2021 to change what we're doing in 2022. Because if you don't spend a decent amount of money drilling, your production will drop off. Any of these shale companies, whether they're Appalachia or oil, doesn't matter. You do have to have a decent amount of spending.

Where we're located, it tells us that we need to balance this budget today and reset it today. Philips, and you've been very nice in your writings about what you expect us to do, and again, we don't want to disappoint anybody.

We want to make sure everybody knows why we're laying this out and knowing we can change it. If we need to change it, we can change it. Prices go a little higher, we change it. If they go lower, we change it. We think this is the right way for the next two years and two months.

Roland Burns
President and CFO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Yeah. The free cash flow is not being sacrificed. Given the prices that we see, we are still going to have very substantial free cash flow. At the same time, have the right investment. You know what? 2022 looks pretty good, too. It's not like this is a one-year wonder. I think that's the opportunity.

As we answered the question before, we're looking at prices every day. We're looking at the NYMEX prices and the future strip where you can't hedge, and then also the cash prices, and we will be very reactive to that and not end up accelerating capital expenditures into a declining price environment. That's something we definitely will not do.

Phillips Johnston
Analyst, Capital One

Yeah. I guess the concern is it was only less than 30 days ago we're shutting in volume because of low spot prices, right? We're talking about adding an additional rig next year. I guess my follow-up would be, would you look to hedge more 2022 volumes before you added that seventh rig?

Roland Burns
President and CFO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Oh, definitely.

Jay Allison
Chairman and CEO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Absolutely.

Roland Burns
President and CFO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

By the time we add it, their hedge positions need to be more established for 2022.

Jay Allison
Chairman and CEO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Remember, our hedge positions, we want to be between 50% and 70%, and maybe 60%-70%.

Roland Burns
President and CFO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Of the next 12 months. Yeah.

Jay Allison
Chairman and CEO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Absolutely, Philip. Great question.

Roland Burns
President and CFO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

We will not be going into it on an unhedged basis. We'll continue to deliver on the hedges and the timeframe that we promise, which is basically 12 months, but 12 to 18 months. Yeah, and we have to be able to establish those to support that rig. If not, it won't happen.

Jay Allison
Chairman and CEO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Yes. With the leverage we have, we have to hedge. We should do that. Yes, that's a commitment to you.

Phillips Johnston
Analyst, Capital One

Okay. That makes sense. Maybe just also, I guess there's been obviously some large corporate mergers announced in the last 90 days or so. Just wanted to get your latest thoughts on just potential consolidation in the Haynesville.

Jay Allison
Chairman and CEO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Well, our goal is, hopefully today, we've reset the program, and our execution will be the happy meetings. I think that if we continue to execute, I think the stock price will perform. I think that you're going to have some stranded painful producers that will need to do something.

Hopefully, what we've done, Phillips, we've set ourself in the middle of kind of a square where to exit, you've got to at least talk to us or look at us, and we can evaluate if there's an opportunity for us to grow and then have a higher market cap and more size, but at the same time, continue to de-lever and to continue to have our high margins. If we can't do that, then we're not interested in any of those opportunities.

I think we've been smart enough to say yes on the Covey Park of the world, and some others, and we're not going to lose that edge that we have, because that edge is everything. We're not going to lose it, and yet we're not going to go sit in the corner and not look at opportunities to expand, if in fact, those make the equity owners stronger and the bondholders stronger and our bank stronger. We'll keep shopping all the time, and we'll keep executing.

Phillips Johnston
Analyst, Capital One

Sounds good. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.

Jay Allison
Chairman and CEO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Yes, sir.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kashy Harrison from Simmons Energy. Your question please.

Kashy Harrison
Analyst, Simmons Energy

Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. Just one or two quick ones for me. I was wondering if you could give us a refresher on how to think about corporate-based declines. I'm assuming since you pretty much shut down activity over the last few months, you have improved visibility onto what that corporate decline looks like, and then maybe how we should think about your corporate decline expectations over the next several years.

Ron Mills
VP of Finance and Investor Relations, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Well, what we've messaged in the past is that the corporate decline rate's about 40%, upper 30s to 40%. If we look out over the course of the next year, it's around that 40% level, then it'll improve kind of by 5%-10% in the second year, and then continue to flatten out as we have more of the established production base at a lower decline. In terms of the first 12 months, kind of that ±40% going down to, I guess 25%-30%, and then kind of flattening out there.

Kashy Harrison
Analyst, Simmons Energy

Got it. That was it for me. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude the question and answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Jay Allison for any further remarks.

Jay Allison
Chairman and CEO, Comstock Resources Incorporated

Yes. Again, everybody that stayed the whole hour on the call, you can't imagine how thankful we are that you spent that hour with us. Again, our goal is to reset the program for the fourth quarter of this year, and then in 2021, 2022, to give you something that we think we can really beat.

We want to adjust this CapEx structure to maximize our advantaged access to this demand market that we have in the Gulf Coast. That's a great advantage we have. It's a material geological advantage we have. We just have some great exposure to Henry Hub prices right now. We want to use that. If we need to change this budget, it'll be pulled back. It's real, and it's reset, and it's good. Again, we thank you for being a partner with us.

I think the brighter days are ahead of us. Our rear view mirror is pretty small, and the windshield's really big, and gas prices look really good, and you've got a really good team here committed. If there's a good day or bad day, we take whatever the day is, and we're accountable to you. Thank you. We'll give you our best.

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.