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Earnings Call: Q2 2020

Aug 7, 2020

Speaker 1

Good day, and welcome to the CubeSmart Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. Now I would like to turn the conference over to Josh Schutzeck, Senior Director of Finance.

Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Cole. Hello, everyone, and good morning. Welcome to Q Smart's Q2 2020 earnings call. Participants on today's call include Chris Marr, President and Chief Executive and Tim Martin, Chief Financial Officer. Our prepared remarks will be followed by a Q and A session.

In addition to our earnings release, which was issued yesterday evening, supplemental operating and financial data is available under the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.cubesmart.com. The company's remarks will include certain forward looking statements regarding earnings and strategy that involve risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results to differ materially from these forward looking statements. The risks and factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from forward looking statements are provided in documents the company furnishes to or files with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically the Form 8 ks we filed this morning, together with our earnings release filed Form 8 ks and the Risk Factors section of the company's annual report on Form 10 ks. In addition, the company's remarks include reference to non GAAP measures. A reconciliation between GAAP and non GAAP measures can be found in the Q2 financial supplement posted on the company's website at www.cubesmart.com.

I will now turn the call over to Chris.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Josh. Good morning, everyone. I will begin by recognizing our 3,100 teammates across the country. We've had to change the way we do, but along the way our mission has been our guide and together we've been simplifying challenges, creating innovative solutions and delivering unparalleled service. Tim will provide insight into the 2nd quarter results.

From a high level perspective, rentals hit the bottom in April, rates in May and both began to recover in June. Given July was our first month of what we would consider more normal pre COVID operations, I will focus my comments on trends we observed post the end of the second quarter. Positive year over year demand trends, which began in June, continued to show strength in July with same store move ins up 3.8% over July of 2019. We resumed our normal lean process in June and made significant progress in addressing our past due customers in July. We expect to conclude the process substantially at the end of August, certainly by the end of Q3, at which point we anticipate our receivables returning to more normal pre COVID levels.

Our July same store vacates were down 7.7% year over year, partially reflective of the status of our auction process, but also reflective of continued increases in length of stay. Our same store year over year net effective rents for new customers shifted into positive territory in July, up 2.5% on average for the month compared to July of 2019 and ended the month up approximately 7% compared to the last day of July 2019. As we noted in our press release, we resumed more traditional pre COVID operation processes by the end of June. During the month of July and into early August, rate increase letters were sent to all of our customers, including those remaining in our portfolio for whom we had paused the process in mid March. We anticipate that the rent roll will be fully caught up with rate increases by the end of the quarter.

We continue to innovate at a rapid pace, reaping the benefits of investments we have made in our technology stack, revenue management and marketing automation. Smart rental, our online contact free experience accounted for approximately 25% of our rental volume during the quarter. We remain cautiously optimistic. Our industry has been and remains very resilient. We are keeping a watchful eye on customer behavior in light of continuing uncertainty around government stimulus, the opening and closing of schools and segments of our economy and the varying impact the pandemic is having in each region of our country.

We believe that the breadth of our need based customer, the quality of our portfolio, the strength of our balance sheet and the investment we have made in our people and our systems will continue to create value for all of our stakeholders. Thank you. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Ken.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Chris, and thank you to everyone on the call for your continued interest and support. Picking up on Chris' comments, we do find ourselves feeling cautiously optimistic. And interestingly, as we report second quarter results, we find ourselves in a similarly strange position as last quarter. When we reported first quarter results, the numbers we were reporting seemed stale and not particularly reflective of the environment we were in at the time since the impacts of the pandemic were front and center, but the Q1 results didn't include much of the impact. And now as we report 2nd quarter results, the current operating environment feels much more positive certainly than April May, when we were seeing what we hope was the worst of the impact to storage fundamentals.

Overall for the quarter, we reported FFO per share of $0.41 same store revenue growth of negative 2.2%, same store expense growth of 2.4 percent and same store NOI growth of negative 4.1%. Last quarter, we adjusted several of our operating practices by stopping our lien sales and pausing on our rent increases to existing customers among other things. Throughout June July, we began methodically resuming normal operations in those areas, but of course, it's not as simple as flipping a switch and things revert back to normal as there are notice periods that need to occur prior to the financial impact. So as we resume those practices, the positive impact of doing so will be partially evident in the latter part of the Q3 and then looking a lot more normal in the Q4. Of course, all of that assumes macro conditions don't reverse and we don't go back to a more restrictive environment as a result of COVID-nineteen.

Our store teams and district managers have done a great job working through our delinquent accounts as well as various levels of lien sales as we had a lot of work to do with the backlog created from pausing in April May. As a result of those efforts, we're in really good shape with our collections and our receivable balances. Couple of different ways people have been looking at that, some want an update on how the current month's collections are trending. That doesn't always work all that well in our sector, but on last quarter's call, we were talking about April collections and we told you at the time that we collected 93% of April rents compared to ultimately collecting 98% of April rents in 2019. This year that 93% grew and grew and as of today, we've collected 97.6 percent of April rents, pretty much right on top of last year.

So the answer to the question for July is that as of today, we've collected 95.6 percent of July rents, again compared to about 98% ultimately collected last year. Of course, we fully expect that as the weeks continue, our July rent collections will continue to grow and ultimately will likely end up being very similar to last year. Another way to think about collections is look at accounts receivable balances. And from that perspective, things also look very healthy. As we look at AR balances less than 30 days and AR balances less than 60 days and compare those levels to last year at the same time, our comparable balances are actually slightly better than they were last year.

And then the final thought on collections and delinquencies then from an occupancy standpoint. Since we paused on customer lien sales, our occupancy levels have been slightly inflated by those cubes that normally would have been subject to the lien sale process. That incremental occupancy was 90 basis points at the end of June and was down to 40 basis points at the end of July. So that's another good indicator that we're trending back towards normal. So trying to provide some color there and details that I know some of you were looking for, but in short, collections, AR balances, write offs, none of those are of concern to us.

And in fact, really speak to the quality of the cash flows in our sector, the quality of the self storage customer and the high levels of customer diversification in our business. In the Q2 from an external growth perspective, we closed on 2 acquisitions for $65,700,000 and during the quarter we added 27 stores to our 3rd party management platform. As detailed in our earnings release last evening, given the volatile macro environment and continued uncertainty of potential future economic disruption caused by COVID-nineteen, we have decided not to reinstate guidance at this time. There simply remains too many unknowns and uncertainties to factor in to provide a range of estimates per our normal practice. From a balance sheet perspective, we remain very healthy and are well positioned not only to have capacity to meet our near and medium term commitments, but we have plenty of capacity, financial flexibility and access to attractive capital to support pursuing external growth opportunities if and when we identify attractive investments that will allow us to continue our history of creating long term shareholder value.

At quarter end, our leverage levels remain conservative at 39% debt to gross assets, our debt to EBITDA was 4.9 times and our fixed charge coverage ratio was 5.6 times. Thanks again for taking the time to join us for today's call. At this point, Cole, let's open up the line for some questions.

Speaker 1

And our first question today will come from Ola Askebeck with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hi, everyone. Thank you for taking the questions. So I just want to start off with those units up for the lien sales. So I was wondering if there are certain markets that those are mostly concentrated in? Just trying to figure out the delta between you guys and your peers.

Speaker 4

So it's pretty universal as we stop lien sales across the entire portfolio and as we began to resume the lien sales, it was pretty programmatic and certainly varied a little bit market by market and there are different requirements in each market as it relates to notice periods and the like. But generally speaking, we started the process across the entire portfolio and we expect to have things pretty much wrapped up in August, almost slipped into September. But by the time we get to the end of Q3, we expect to be in good shape across the country.

Speaker 5

Got it. And so there's no there aren't many markets that are still And then just anything on the smart rental other than just the 25% rental volume? What feedback have you gotten from customers? Anything else you can tell us about that program?

Speaker 3

So you would expect there's a segment of the customer base who understands the product, feels comfortable with the space requirement that they have, and is used to a self-service experience and they are enjoying smart rental as a way to meet their needs. Clearly, we have another substantial segment of the customer base who are either first time users of our product, unsure of the space need or just like to have that interaction. So we're able to serve at both ends of the spectrum. We will continue to innovate smart rental adding features. We're adding features almost weekly.

I think it's been very helpful in terms of thinking about times where, for example, on a Sunday afternoon or early evenings, etcetera, where customers may drive up, the office is closed, but there's a QR code on the door that they can scan and go through the rental process at their convenience. So it has been helpful. I think what this is going to look like someday when we return to more normal levels, I think you're always going to have a significant segment of the consumer who likes a more traditional process as opposed to the self-service model. So we will continue to provide them with both ends of the spectrum.

Speaker 5

Understood. And then just following up on that, has that helped you in terms of your marketing spend? Like, is that in any way going to benefit you in the future considering marketing spend continues to be really high?

Speaker 3

I don't know whether you can draw a straight line between smart rental and marketing spend. I think they are independent of one another, certainly complementary in terms of, again, being able to attract a customer for whom contactless is a search term that they choose to use, but I think they are largely independent of one another.

Speaker 5

Okay, got it. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 1

And our next question will come from Smedes Rose with Citi. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hi, thanks. I was just wanted to ask now that you've put back in place rent increases for existing customers, you said for pretty much across the border, just any change in the way you're thinking about the degree of the rent increases kind of pre or post pandemic or is it kind of just in line with where you would have been regardless?

Speaker 4

Hey, Smedes. Thanks for the question. Yes, we are still programmatically looking at rate increases to existing customers in a very similar way to what we have would have done pre pandemic. And lessons learned over many, many years, even going back to the global financial crisis is that all of our data, all of our testing suggests that at those levels, consumer behavior simply doesn't change as a result of continuing to push those rate increases again in the high single digit range. Of course, history doesn't always repeat itself and we have the tools and the systems to monitor behaviors very past, We can certainly be extremely nimble and adjust accordingly.

But to date, we haven't seen any evidence nor our intuition suggests that we won't.

Speaker 6

Okay, thanks. And then I was just wondering, I don't know, you may not really have a good read on this, but I mean, do you think that the $600 of kind of the unemployment benefits that are on top of state benefits helped your existing customers? Or do you think for the most part, maybe they're just not really in that category and it's sort of less of an issue if that goes away or it's changed meaningfully? I don't know if you have any way to any kind of thoughts on that, but curious if you do.

Speaker 3

Yes, Smedes, just purely anecdotal, I think add the margin. It certainly was helpful for folks who had that additional cash. Again, I think across the customer base, it's so diverse and such a differing segments of both the country geography as well as economically that I can't imagine having it or not having it as a material impact on our customer. Okay.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Speaker 1

And our next question will come from Todd Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi. Thank you. Tim, thanks for the detail around the collections and the impact the delayed auctions had on occupancy and everything. What was the bad debt expense or the reserve in the quarter that impacted the income statement? And how do you expect that to trend in the Q3 as you work through the backlog of auctions?

You expect it to be larger or smaller relative to 2Q?

Speaker 4

Well, I expect the impact from bad debts to decline, but I mean, of course, it's all in a net revenue reporting structure, right? So we only report revenue on cubes that are rented where we expect that we will ultimately be able to collect it. So obviously, during the Q2, we experienced a period of time with a delay in the lien sales that we had, that portion of our occupancy that was in our cubes that we didn't believe would ultimately pay, given historical trends of it. If you get that far behind and are subject to typically to a lien sale, we view that rent is ultimately not collectible. So we don't record it by way of reserving against it and netting down our revenue.

So certainly, I think the levels of that will decline as we've caught up now or catching up with the lean sales. I don't think the impact to the trajectory of revenues or the growth in revenues has any direct impact from the write off amount, right? It's all net revenue presentation. So I think as things improve, the impact from write offs, the improvement in collections is helpful, but we don't disclose the exact amount, but the impact of it is certainly going to decline here as we return to normal.

Speaker 7

Are you able to sort of bookend how much above average levels it was in the quarter?

Speaker 4

Yes, I would say that our delinquencies that ultimately that we didn't think we were going to collect would have gone from around 2 percent to somewhere between 2.5% and 3%. So then the write offs then that would come from that if you do the math is that write offs then would have been up just north of 50%.

Speaker 7

Got it. That's helpful. And then I was also wondering if you could give us an update on ICAP. I believe there was some pending legislation trying to loosen up the regulations to get new developments in ahead of the July 1 deadline or maybe some other possible changes. Can you provide an update on what's happening there?

Speaker 4

Yes. The update that I can provide you is certainly there's a lot of discussion. There are many impacted parties who had things in the planning stages or who had made investments either in real money or in a lot of time and they are very interested parties in trying to get some levels of exceptions to the line that was drawn. I don't have anything to update you on any formal action that has been taken as a result of those efforts. We certainly believe that the legislation that was passed ultimately is passed and medium to long term wouldn't expect that that would be reversed.

Anything that's done in the short term to make a handful of exceptions, too early to tell and would just be conjecture.

Speaker 7

Okay. And then have you started to see developers begin moving outward from New York City, maybe looking to explore an uptick, I guess, in activity around New Jersey or Westchester, maybe Long Island? And then also just in terms of your New York MSA exposure, I was just wondering if you could also comment on conditions there. Were they sort of consistent with what you laid out for the improvements that you saw in the Q2 and into July? Or do you think that conditions in New York could intensify a little bit or weigh further on revenue growth in the Q3?

Speaker 4

I'll take the first part of that and then can chime in. As it relates to developers and where their focus is, even before the ICAP legislation took hold, we were already seeing folks that were in the area start to look further out as the supply that has come into the boroughs has been supplied that frankly over time is going to be entirely justified. The levels of square foot per capita in the boroughs is still extraordinarily low relative to any other market. And so that said, the attractive opportunities have were picked over. And so those who have development platforms in the boroughs were already starting to look outside of the boroughs to continue to find opportunities to develop our product types.

Certainly, the ICAP legislation is going to enhance that and perhaps accelerate folks looking in different places, but it was already underway. And then for color on performance, Chris, if you want to jump in.

Speaker 3

Sure. New York, both the MSA and the boroughs, July was a fabulous month. In fact, for the MSA exceeding what I quoted nationally. So rentals were up 7%, net effective rents to new customers were up just about 5%, occupancy was up 150 basis points. For the boroughs specifically, rentals were up consistent with the same store portfolio in that 3 plus percent range.

Net effective rents for the new customers were up much higher than what we had seen in the rest of the country, 5.8% for the month of July and that really ranges from the Bronx at just about 7% to Queens being up only a couple of basis points. So it performed both as an MSA and the boroughs themselves really, really well in July and we're excited about that continuing on here into August.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Todd. And our next question will come from Ryan Lumb with Green Street Advisors. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Thanks. And actually to stay on a similar topic in New York there. We've heard anecdotes of residents in New York sort of just packing up and going elsewhere either temporarily or maybe more long term as the city faced worsening case count in the second quarter. Do you have any color around some of the flight out of New York in the second quarter? Did any of that turn into storage demand?

Speaker 3

Any color

Speaker 9

you can provide there would be great.

Speaker 3

Yes. I may be wrong, but I think this little company called Facebook just made a rented 750,000 square feet of office space in New York City. I'm not sure if I read that correctly. But I think the demise of New York as it has been for 100 years is premature. From our customer base in the outer boroughs, Brooklyn, Queens,

Speaker 4

Looks like we looks like Chris lost his audio. I think anecdotally, what you're referring to is folks moving around and maybe leaving for a temporary period. Certainly, there have been some articles on that and that's a trend that certainly has legs to it. I think that's just yet another description of a type of customer who needs a temporary place to store their goods. I would think most likely those customers are going to store for a period of time.

When their work situation returns to normal and they want to start coming back to the office, I would suspect that many of those people will migrate back in and their need for a temporary place to store their belongings will end. They'll find a new apartment probably at a much lower rate and things will get back to normal, the timeframe for which that would happen. Your guess is as good as mine at the moment. Could be a couple of months, could be 6, 9 months, either way. I think that's just again anecdotally another type of customer who needs our product and we're happy to have them as a customer.

Speaker 9

Sure, understand. And then we heard from PS Business Parks, which caters primarily to sort of smaller tenants, smaller businesses, some weakness among small businesses. Can you provide any additional color around maybe the health of your small business customer?

Speaker 3

Yes. I'm sorry. My cell phone disconnected me there. I am what we're seeing across the portfolio is that the majority of our customers that are small businesses continue to rent and they're continue to be current on their rent. We are seeing, as we did during the Great Recession, unfortunately, the return of the customer whose small business or restaurant they elected to close and they have inventory or they have restaurant equipment that they own and they want to store with a belief that coming out the other side of this, they will resume business.

So we are starting to see those customers coming into the portfolio much as we did during the Great Recession.

Speaker 10

Okay, great. Thanks guys.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 1

And our next question will come from Michael Mueller with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Yes, hi. I was wondering, can you talk a little bit about the spread between move in and move out rates during the quarter and how that looked compared to, I guess, a year ago?

Speaker 4

Yes. I'm trying to put my fingers on it here. It's the gap widened a little bit from last year. Mike, if you had do you have a second question? I'll try to pull that number first.

Apologies, I just don't have it right in front of me.

Speaker 3

Actually, that was it. That was it. Some stuff about New York, but you're pretty thorough on that. I think the difference between move in and move out there in the quarter was down about 21%, which would have been compared to about 9% in the Q2 of 2019. Got it.

It's trending in Q3? No, not at this time. Don't have any update.

Speaker 10

Okay. That's it.

Speaker 9

Thank you. Thanks.

Speaker 1

And our next question will come from Samir Khanal with Evercore. Please go

Speaker 10

ahead. Yes. Good morning, everybody. I guess, Chris or Tim, can you talk a little bit about the 3rd party management platform? Platform?

I mean, have you seen private owners wanting to be part of the whole platform here as they navigate through the environment? I guess, how should we think about that platform, the growth over the next sort of several quarters?

Speaker 4

Yes, I think it continues to be a business that the inbound calls continue. Our pipeline of management contracts to bring on over time here continues to develop and looks pretty healthy. And it's a combination of

Speaker 3

existing open and operating stores, many of which

Speaker 4

are stable and you have owners who stores, many of which are stable and you have owners who, for a magnitude of reasons, recognize and continue to recognize the value of a large platform like ours, the sophistication from a business intelligence revenue management perspective, the sophistication from a marketing perspective and the power of having an operating platform and the ability to navigate through the crazy world that we find ourselves in here over the last few weeks as far as being able to react quickly to create the ability for customers to find you on line in a no touch way and to manage through all of the it's a heavy intensive operating business that we're in. And working through everything over the last couple of months, our team has just done such a fantastic job of adjusting. And I think if you're a smaller owner, you look at that, you say, wow, I can't compete with that. So you certainly have folks from that perspective. You also have, while the development cycle is getting late, there are still new stores being delivered.

And many of those new stores are going to find a home in our management platform or one of our peers management platforms because again, their expertise as a developer is not in running our business and running a store. And so they need help and they're going to come to a large player for that help. So we continue to see inbound calls. We continue to our business development folks are busy. So there's certainly a lot of interest.

Speaker 10

Okay. And I guess my second question is around the transaction market. Sorry if I missed this, but is there any color that you can provide? I know at the beginning of the year, I think things are a lot starting to pick up and then you hit the impact from COVID and there was a bit of a pause there, but I'm hearing that things are starting to pick back up again, those are only from seller and buyer perspective. Any color on that and cap rates and pricing would be helpful.

Speaker 4

Yes, I think part of it is just seasonal. Many folks on the selling side want to at least get partway into the summer busy season and see their in a normal year. And then of course, we're starting to get a little bit more clarity on operating performance and the impact on rates and the like as a result of the pandemic. So certainly activity has picked up a little bit. Pricing remains very strong from a seller's perspective, certainly on an open and operating stable property.

There is an awful lot of capital that's interested in those types of assets, certainly not just the REITs. There's an awful lot of private capital that is looking to invest in our sector, given the strength of the cash flows in our sector, certainly on a relative basis to a lot of other product types. Storage remains a very attractive asset class. So there's an awful lot of interest, which is keeping cap rates down. I think no surprise, but the potential area that we could find some opportunities that might be a little bit more attractive on a risk adjusted basis are stores that are in some stage of lease up.

And you're seeing some of those opportunities, I would say there's still quite often a pretty big disconnect between buyer and seller expectations that the seller is still looking to put out a package that shows the dream as the rates are going to return to where they were back a year ago and the pace of the lease up will continue to be what they thought it was when they built the store and on the buyer side, people are being a little bit more cautious and perhaps a little bit more realistic on their underwriting. So whether those trades find a mark where the buyer and seller can meet, we'll see how things play out.

Speaker 10

And any idea as to how far off in pricing buyers and sellers are off right now?

Speaker 4

It's just wildly going to differ from deal to deal. We've been disconnected by as much as 20%, 30% sometimes. And then but what's interesting is somebody will pop up and pay near what the seller is looking for. So it only takes 1 buyer to make a transaction.

Speaker 10

Got it. Okay. Thanks so much for that.

Speaker 4

Yes. Thank you.

Speaker 1

And our next question will come from Ki Bin Kim with Truist Capital. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thanks. Good afternoon.

Speaker 10

Just want to

Speaker 8

tie up some data points here. The ECRI program, if you never stopped it in 2Q, what benefit would that have provided?

Speaker 4

It would have been better.

Speaker 8

Any kind of better color than that in terms of expense going on?

Speaker 4

That wasn't clear enough for you. We didn't quantify that. I mean, as we've talked about in the past, we haven't quantified the components of the revenue growth down to that level. I will tell you that it is the as we were modeling things out back in late March and looking at the potential impact of all kinds of different things, rate increases to existing customers, move in volumes, effective rates to new customers, write offs, delinquencies, you go through all of those variables. I will tell you that the pass along increases to existing customers in the 3 to 9 month period of turning those off was the single biggest impact to revenue growth year over year because if you're doing that consistently as we have been for years and then you stop, it's a pretty big drag on earnings growth.

So without giving you a number because we're not going to disclose it, I will tell you that in the range of things that could impact, it was certainly the biggest one.

Speaker 8

Okay. And the other rental income, I'm assuming there's that's just the kind of registration fees, late fees. How much did not charging customers late fees impact that trend? And as business returns back to normal, should I just expect that to normalize by end of the year?

Speaker 4

Yes. The majority of the amount that's down year over year was attributable to late fees. A little bit early in the quarter would have been on administrative fees, things that are associated with customers moving in and so move in volumes were down of course. And so that had a little bit of an impact, but you hit the big one, which was when you stopped charging late fees, that was the biggest driver of the variance in that line.

Speaker 8

Okay. And just high level, do you think was there a different customer segment or customers using storage for different reasons that made a pronounced impact in July that might have contributed to the kind of higher rental activity?

Speaker 4

Well, it's just anecdotal stuff. We have hundreds of thousands of customers who all come to us. Again, as I talked about earlier, the beauty of the business is there are so many different needs that create demand for our product. It would be anecdotal at best, anything that I would provide there from a color

Speaker 1

perspective. And this will conclude our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Chris Mower for any closing remarks.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thanks everybody for participating in our call. Please continue to stay safe. We wish you all the best and we look forward to speaking to everyone on our Q3 earnings call. Take care.

Have a great rest of your summer.

Speaker 1

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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