Before we get into the Q&A, I just want to queue up the audience response questions here really quick. Question number one, please. Do you currently own Delta, yes, overweight, 2 market weight, 3 underweight, or no ownership? Yeah, sure.
Opportunity.
Yes, yes sir. All right. Question number two, please. What is your general bias towards Delta right now, positive, negative, or neutral? And Glen, we've been hearing a lot of buzz about airlines at the conference the last two days, so. All right. And then question number three. In your opinion, through-cycle EPS growth for Delta will be above peers, in line with peers, or below peers? That's pretty bullish outlook there, Glen.
Okay.
All right. Little technical difficulties here, but we'll get this back on track. So, Glen, thank you for coming down and being at Miami. Really appreciate it.
Horrible to be here in Miami in the third week of February, just really terrible duty.
Yeah, and the flights were full too, so.
That's good to see.
Before we, you know, I do want to ask maybe about near-term bookings, but I want to keep this really focused on the long term. And maybe let's just start it off because you guys provided, at the time, I think this was 2021 or 2022, a three-year outlook. You know, I think getting north of $6-$7 in EPS this year. And at the time, a lot of investors just figured, well, there's really no way to predict what revenue for the industry's going to be, and how can Delta recover that level of profitability? And, you know, three years later, you guys are pretty close to that prior rate.
I think we performed in the first two years.
That's correct. So can you give us some context on how you guys are looking at the business post-pandemic and long-term planning?
Yeah. I think we're really excited about our relative positioning in the industry, emerging from the pandemic. I think for most of you who followed the industry for a long time, as you come out of a crisis, and unfortunately, there had been crises like 9/11 and, of course, the Great Recession, the profitability of the industry's generally been led by the LCCs and the ULCCs. And this time, it's quite different. The profitability of the industry is being led by the legacy carriers. Delta, I think, last year accounted for about 40% of the industry's profits, and so clearly, there is something different. And I think that's a testament to the people at Delta who worked hard to change how we view the airline business as not a commodity, right?
There were a lot of doubters in the beginning who say, "Oh, well, that's all that matters is the price between point A and point B, and do you fly there?" But when you looked at the data, it really showed that there was much more, and consumers weren't being satisfied by just a price. I think we were probably the first to see that, and so we had the first mover advantage on that. I think that's worked out quite nicely for us to say, "Hey, look, while 65% of the people were choosing on price and schedule only, there were 35% of the people who were choosing on something else." That was product, and that was brand.
Those 35% who were choosing on something else actually represented more than 50% of the airline industry's revenues, yet they were kind of being ignored. So as you saw this 10 years ago, I said, "There's an opportunity to occupy a more premium space to come up with products and services that would be geared towards a more premium customer who wanted amenities, who wanted clubs, who wanted food, who wanted priority boarding, who wanted to make sure they could get their overheads on the airplane." Really, that was a long journey. It sounds simple now that you look back on it, but it was very, very complicated to take an industry that really wasn't geared to sell those products and services and re-engineer it to be able to go ahead and use that as a leverage point.
I think we've seen that strengthen going into the pandemic and really accelerate coming out of the pandemic. It's really differentiating Delta.
Well, it is pretty amazing when we look back at the last few years and how it's been out. I guess in the near term, though, can you remind us what the revenue outlook is for the Q1 ? And folks here do want to understand, are things trending better, domestically? And what's the outlook in 2Q here? Industry capacity does step up quite a bit, from Q1 to Q2 , right?
Well, first, last year was really the year of international. The international demand was incredibly high. It was the first year that people could travel without any restrictions. And so we saw, really demand exceed supply. We saw historically high revenues internationally. And there was, through the second half of last year, that international played out and domestic being a little bit lighter than I think many people expected. And I think we bottomed out in June and then had that gradual recovery. And what we've told our investors, and I think we're on track for this, is that we're going to reflect a positive in this quarter. And so that's a very nice sequential improvement quarter over quarter. And then the question, I think, in a lot of people's minds, "Well, you had such a great year internationally.
“How are you going to do this summer internationally?” And I'd like to say, I'll go on record saying I think this is going to be an even bigger summer internationally than last summer, plus just multiple new records. I think we'll have record transatlantic unit revenues. I think we'll have record transatlantic revenues. And the one I'm really excited about for this year is the Pacific, which is really looking like Q2 and beyond are going to be incredibly strong for us. And that's, I think that's the entity that's going to lead this year in terms of year-over-year improvements.
Can we dig a little bit deeper into that commentary? So how much of a visibility do you have on, on bookings, and is international different from domestic with greater visibility?
Certainly, international bookings flow out. So looking at Q2 , we have like 50% of our bookings for transatlantic and trans-Pacific as we sit today. So that's better visibility than what we have for domestic, which tends to book much closer revenue.
Okay. And in the transatlantic, I think you commented that capacity should be roughly flat, or is that incorrect?
I think our capacity is up, mid-single digits year-over-year in terms of seats.
That's where you want it to be from a network perspective this year?
Yeah. I think we see incredible demand. And maybe I'll take a step back and say, during the pandemic, we have this slide in our investor presentations that shows that there is about $300 million of airline revenues that were missing during the pandemic. If you look, airline revenues as a percentage of GDP, it's pretty constant, around 1.4% of GDP. And then every time that it goes under, depending on what the event is, almost every time coming out of it, it goes over that 1.4%. And so last year, we were probably sitting just under the 1.4%. I expect that the next few years will probably be over that as some of that gets caught up.
I mean, somebody who's in their early 60s, you know, you look and you say, "How many more times am I going to go to Europe?" And when you miss three years in a row, you know, you got to make you got to hurry up and get over there because, you know, the one thing that everybody in this room has in common with a hundred clock.
That sounds pretty bullish. And the commentary on Asia, is that incrementally better than maybe where it was in last year?
Absolutely. And I think, you know, again, underappreciated in the industry. We told our shareholders for many, many years to be patient with us. We had to re-architect and re-engineer our Pacific operations. If you recall, post-merger with Northwest, every one of our flights stopped in Tokyo Narita Airport. Our airline just no longer flies to Tokyo Narita. So that's a big change, right, as you went from everybody stopping in Tokyo Narita to not even serving the airport. We have our largest carrier to Haneda, of course, which is the closest airport, in Tokyo and, where all the business and high-yield funds arrive. So Japan is looking very, very strong. And with the yen, where it sits today, you know, it's become a huge vacation spot and, considered safe, considered, of course, people love Japan. It's a wonderful place to go visit.
So we see a lot of not only increased corporate spend, but we also see very high leisure for Japan. China is going to be what it's going to be for us. It's less than two flights a day. And yesterday, we learned there'll be another two flights for our U.S. carrier, so we'll probably see a little more capacity. It's going quite well with what capacity's there. The unit revenues are down because the capacity was so constrained in the previous year, but still incredibly profitable for us. And then really, the one that we're so excited about and continuing to build out is our position in Incheon Airport. And for those of you who have not transited Incheon, we do believe it's the best place to transit in Asia for secondary Asia.
partly there Korean and with the Korea, the Korean-Asiana merger almost complete, we see a really, really bright future for that. So really kind of hitting on all cylinders in Asia this year.
How about your JV structure? You hinted at Korean Air and Air France-KLM merger in the Atlantic. So how is the JV structure working this year? And what are your partners doing, capacity perspective?
You know, I think the JV structure is integral to the Delta success in international. And if you think about it, we can be relevant in New York. We can be relevant in Atlanta. We can be relevant in the United States. But when you think about our relevance in a country like Chile or Brazil, it is we fly there a couple of times a day. And without those partners, we don't have distribution networks. We don't have hubs to send regional travel. And so adding those to our portfolio and having the tightest relationship with our JV partners is really integral to our success. And the most recent one, of course, is our association with LATAM, which we're really in the end of the first year of approval of a joint venture. And I think the results are nothing short of incredible.
We have about a 30% capacity increase into South America this year, and unit revenues are up. So I think, you know, that's just an incredible testament to how that's doing in its first years. And as we continue to mature that, we see a lot of runway.
And I think, you know, back in January, when you guys had your Q4 call, mid-January, maybe it was a little bit more cautious on Latin America expansion. I think you called out some beach markets, headwinds.
Yeah. I think, you know, Latin America's a big entity because it's got several some components from leisure-oriented to visiting friends and relatives to business markets. And what I'd say is South America is the standout for us. There is a little bit of excess industry capacity in leisure beach. That tends to go in waves. And so probably next year, it'll be in balance. But last year, in 2023, it was fantastic. In 2024, everybody thought it would be great to have a lot more capacity. And it'll be good. It won't just be record-breaking. And then next year, it'll probably resolve itself.
Appreciate all this. And, you know, pre-pandemic, kind of inversed a lot of these conversations, right? I think Asia-Pacific was lagging in terms of profitability. And, and to your point, you were building out the network, moving from Narita into Incheon. But how sustainable are these international results? And I think because investors are a little bit skeptical, if you look at airline PEs, they're probably the lowest of all the attending companies here.
Right, right. I think we've learned so much with our partners and how to integrate with our partners. And I think I don't know the exact statistics, but more than half of our capacity internationally goes to partner hubs. So that's pretty insulated and pretty advantaged to us. Our highest margins domestically are going to be flying between our hubs domestically. Our highest margins internationally are going to be flying between us and our partner hubs. And we'll continue to focus on that because it's competitively advantaged. The other thing that we've come to grips with is that we don't have the right configurations on our long-haul equipment. And so, starting this fall, we'll reconfigure our A350s to be a much more premium-configured airplane. Margins tend to be dramatically different domestically, but it's even more pronounced internationally where you make your money and where you don't.
As we retool our airline to be a more premium airline, there's a huge opportunity in the international long-haul to continue to lean into premium products and services where the margins are much healthier than they are in, of course, in the commoditized piece of the airplane.
This is a pretty bullish conversation, by the way. If there's any audience questions, you guys can raise your hand. We'll get you a mic. Glen, can you talk about that transitioning to premium? Because I think premium revenues have been outperforming for Delta for quite some time now. What's the go-forward strategy from a perspective?
I think I mentioned international configurations, which we're working on now. We also have, you know, we're in the phase of really reconfiguring our long-haul international fleet right now, so that's a priority for us. Domestically, we're looking at opportunities within the existing fleet. We're finding opportunities when we take a fine-toothed comb to this, for example, to increase Comfort+ by 30% without increasing seat pitch on certain fleet types. So, I think we're very bullish on continuing to find opportunities with the configurations themselves. And then on top of that, I think we're thinking further about how do we, what is the next leg in terms of segmentation for us? And what we've done, I think, pretty effectively is segment the coach cabin of the airplane.
I think the same segmentation probably exists in terms of trying to meet customers' needs and wants in all of our cabins. So if we can create from the main cabin all the way up through the highest-end products in Delta One, different experiences for different customers, really controlling our experience and then controlling the pricing behind that, and say, you know, we want kind of to think about having a good, better, and best product in each one of our cabins. And moving forward into that, that's a whole nother layer of opportunity we see in terms of satisfying customer needs and taking control of our ability to price.
Well, and coming back to sustainability or resiliency, I think folks are just wondering, will this trend play out through the next economic cycle? So if GDP contracts and we go into recession, will these trends hold, or does everyone revert back to paying the cheapest fare?
You know, we survey a lot of our customers. And if you fly Delta, we know we survey you to death. And what we see is a really high-intent re-purchase. And I, I think this is kind of the human social; it's not unique to Delta. In other words, when I get out of school, I may have a car that is very utilitarian. As I progress through my career, I might have nicer and nicer and nicer cars. You tend to not go backwards. And so I, I think what we see is that we have between 70% and 80% intent re-purchase. And then once you're in that cabin, you only go up. So, you know, our real goal here is to have best-in-class products and services across the whole spectrum of your, your life cycle.
So as you're getting out of school, maybe, and you're starting your career and you don't have a whole lot of money, who is the best in main cabin? And I think, you know, we want it to be Delta. And I think we've demonstrated that it is. It's the most reliable. It's got the best people. All those things that make Delta a special airline are common throughout all of our cabins. But if you want, you know, if price is the only thing that's important to you, we want to have that available to you. And then as you continue to grow in your needs and your own life cycle, I think we have best-in-class products across that spectrum. And people tend not to go back. And that's the exciting part for us, I think.
Well, and maybe along those lines, can you talk about loyalty and the SkyMiles program, American Express partnership?
Absolutely. I think the other piece about sustainability and resiliency is about diversified revenue streams. Clearly, we think diversification of those products and services are key. And our goal is to have more than 50% coming from other products and services other than the base fare itself. And so, you know, as we work to do that, one of the key drivers is American Express. Another key driver is the MRO. But American Express, last year, we the remuneration, I think we've disclosed, is just under $7 billion. And we have a goal in the medium term to get that to be over $10 billion. And of course, that's, you know, less subject to changes, because it's profitable across the spectrum. So more durability, more consumer, and more stickiness with our consumer, which I think is great for the airline and great for the loyalty program.
Well, you didn't make some changes last year in the enrollments. What's been the experience with the updated SkyMiles? Has card adoption and acceptance gone up, or is it still turning in the direction you want to see?
Its acquisitions this month are incredibly strong. Of course, we did during the transition. We knew that we were going to upset a lot of people. Not our intent. Our intent is to have the best products and services for everybody. But given how generous we were during COVID, we realized that we weren't able to sustain a number of people that were in each one of the ranks. And we had to make some priority decisions of who would, would ultimately be in that category. And, I, I think what we've come up with is, many ways to get there. And if you think about it, it's more simple. And that was one of the key drivers. We wanted it to be simple. We wanted it to be fair. And we wanted it to be transparent. And I think we've achieved all that.
Initially, we took a lot of hits when we had some revisions. Some changes were very unpopular. Ed was very adamant that we had to revise those, which we did. Now we're back into a period where I think some of the most recent articles that have been written about the relaunch of the card are, "Wow, this is amazing." I, I think we've given people a real, opportunity to get value from Delta, you know, even greater than they did before. It just took some time, I think, for us to get it right and for people to understand it.
I know we're focused on the network, but cost inflation has been a challenge, I think, for every airline. Some industry-related challenges. Definitely, wage inflation has been top of mind. Can you just remind us the strategy at Delta? I think you guys want to have the best-paid employees. Is that correct?
Absolutely. Across all workgroups, we tend to have the best base in the industry. On top of that, we have our profit sharing. Of course, our profit sharing just came out last week, so it's fresh in everybody's mind. We paid $1.4 billion of profit sharing last year, which was, I think, our third or fourth best year in terms of profit sharing. Our goal is, of course, to grow the profits of the airline industry and grow the profit sharing of the airline. So it's best-in-class in your base, and then on top of that, to have the best profit sharing programs in the industry and pay out at the highest end.
Yeah. I think some investor fear, though, that the industry's paid so much in inflation, the base is so much higher now. Can pricing sustain profitability going forward in adequate ways?
Well, what I like about where we sit today at Delta is the fact that we did lead the industry in terms of returning to profitability in the post-pandemic era. There are carriers, in the spectrum of airlines that are either not as profitable as they need to be to return capital in the long run or, or unprofitable today. Really, you know, the basic law of business is there's two ways you can improve your profitability. You can shrink costs in an inflationary environment where labor is constrained and air manufacturers are constrained. That's pretty difficult to do, not impossible. But I don't think that's what's going to really change their fortune. Their fortune is going to be changed by changing their revenue profile.
And where we sit today, as the industry revenues have to recapture in order to return cost to capital, revenues have to go up. The industry has proven over time, whether it's high fuel or whether it's industry-common inflation, that it can pass through higher costs to consumers successfully. And I think that's, that's why I'm so excited about where we sit today. It's other people have to move. And whatever they move, we can sit on top of that.
Okay. And speaking of capital, I think you guys, well, you've gotten into EPS of, I think $6-$7 a year, right? Correct? Is it $3-$4 billion?
$3 billion-$4 billion of free cash flow.
That's, that's a pretty good yield on your stock price right now. Anticipated in that guidance, were you baking in the idea that Transatlantic, Latin, and, and the Asia networks are going to be interesting now?
Listen, I think it's early to make revisions because we're only in the third week of February. But, you know, we see a very healthy revenue environment as we move forward. We've got to continue to work on cost and fuel, of course. We don't control fuel. Fuel, you know, has been stuck as of late. So we scale all those things out. I'm optimistic. And I think that this could be a great year. And I think, you know, the important thing for us, take that $3-$4 billion of free cash flow that we're going to have this year and work to pay down the debt. We have more debt than we did pre-pandemic. We need to get that back, down. We need to get the company to investment grade. I think we should be able to get there this year. We're close to it.
I think continuing to use the excess cash flow to pay down debt for the short to medium term is where we need to stay focused.
Maybe we can cue up question number four here. Anytime we'll get you on the record. Let's do question four real quick for the audience, please. In your opinion, what should Delta Air Lines do with excess cash, full-time M&A, larger M&A, share repurchase, dividends, debt paydown? I think larger M&A would be a challenge to us.
Yeah, I think so.
Question number five, please. In your opinion, what multiple of 2024 earnings should Delta trade? All right. Then question number six, please. What do you see as the most significant share price headwind facing Delta: core growth, margin performance, capital, or execution and strategy? And thanks again, everyone.
Thank you.
All right. Go ahead, John.
I have a question about the demand and domestic demand for your main cabin and lower-end in the segment. Delta's been focused on premium demand, but how does Delta see itself over the medium and long term towards the everyday flyer domestically and the lower-end in the segment?
Yeah. I, I think, for people who seek value across their whole life cycle, we want to be there for them because you don't you know, we have this great saying in German words, "Every Million Miler starts as a dealer's miler." And, you know, today, we will have about 2,000 people who start flying this month that in 22 years will be million milers. So it's a long journey. And, first of all, the people who spend million miles and multiple million miles with us are very cherished by us. And they're very important to us. And we want to make sure they're happy. But along that journey, we need to continue to show them value. And that starts from where do they enter the system? And most people do not enter the system in first. If you did, you're very lucky.
I did this as a survey in our internal leadership meeting. Too many people raised their hands. I thought we have a pretty entitled group here. But most people start flying in coach. I did when I was a kid. I still fly in coach a lot, but I tend to fly less than I did back then. And I think that's what we want to make sure is that for people who value high quality, that we are available in all spectrums.
Also, you talk a lot about revenue and with your MRO business, there have been callouts. Is Delta able to take advantage with your MRO business and servicing?
I think you know, we're present in three platforms, three of the new generation platforms. Those are all new platforms. We think that the shop visits will peak in the 2035 time period. So between now and 2025-2035, it's about a billion-dollar business now, a little bit less. Now we see that growing to about a $5 billion business between now and early 2023. So, we're preparing for that. We're the capital for ours. And we'll do ours plus our partners. So I think it's a very exciting business. It's another one that I think is less cyclical than the airline, the core airline itself, that we can have as a great addition.
Unfortunately, we're out of time. I have so many more questions, but very bullish on presentation. So I really appreciate you coming down here.
Well, thank you for inviting us. We really appreciate it. And if anybody has any additional questions, I'll be on the vestibule for a while. So thank you all.
Thank you.