Capital Markets Day. My name is Craig Barber. I'm IR director for Dana, and again, wanna welcome everyone here and online. Again, Capital Markets Day, we're gonna be making some forward-looking statements today that may differ materially from our actual results. Please have a look at our safe harbor statement on our posted materials and in our public filings. We're gonna go ahead and get started this morning with our first presentation. Let's go ahead and start.
Dana 2030 is a bottoms-up led initiative by the leadership team of Dana, really reimagining what we can be in the future. If you look at the company now that we've sold the Off-Highway business, we have to really look for other ways to grow and expand our profitability, and that's kinda been the focus of the five different teams.
Dana 2030 is embarking on a transformational journey, focusing our efforts from an operations, engineering, sales perspective to be more defined and more lean than we've ever been before.
Getting back to the basics of what Dana's been known for in the industry, and really resetting and realigning our strategy for long-term successful growth.
We are looking at the way that we run our business today and all of the strategies that we employ, the processes, the systems, and determining how we can do better going forward to sustain our long-term growth as a company and really making sure that we have benefit on a long-term sustainable basis.
We're building on a 120-year history of technology and innovation. I think we're at a very exciting, pivotal point, and over the next five years to regrow the business, both financially and through our technology roadmap.
I'm really excited by the fact that this is a. The teams own it. This isn't my vision for the company. This isn't the leadership team's vision. This is a bottoms-up effort. We set some, what we thought were pretty aggressive goals for the five teams to deliver, and each of the teams have blown us away and come back with even more opportunity than we initially expected.
It's a journey, and it's a big opportunity that allow us to be the architect of all of that. Therefore, I believe that being engaged since day zero will allow us to set the future for ourself and best we can lead.
What excites me is just seeing the energy from all the people that have been working on the Dana 2030 teams and the strategy that we're getting ready to deploy, all of the opportunities we have ahead of us to not only continue to deliver world-class technologies and products for our customers but to deliver exceptional results and returns for our stakeholders.
You know, I continue to be super excited and motivated by the energy that I see our team bringing forward to help us map out the future of the company. Because I think we all see the opportunities we have to continue to grow and serve our customers in all of the markets we serve. The upside and the opportunities in front of us are just really hard to even quantify and get our arms around. We're just super excited about what the future can bring for our company.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our Capital Markets Day. I'd like to start out with just introducing the Dana management team, starting with Byron Foster. Byron runs our Light Vehicle business and is our incoming CEO. Next, we have Brian Pour.
Brian runs our Commercial Vehicles and Aftermarket businesses, and we're gonna be talking a lot more about our aftermarket opportunity here in our presentation today. Seth Metzger is our Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer. Chris Clark runs our manufacturing operations. He'll be presenting today. Most of you know Timothy Kraus, our CFO. We also have in the room Doug. Maybe you could just stand up. Doug Liedberg is our General Counsel and Head of HR. Kevin Williams, he's back there, he runs purchasing, procurement. Then Andrea Siudara, our CIO. IT, not investment. Okay.
When you saw the slide about Dana 2030, what we did is sort of think about just putting it in perspective. With the sale of our Off-Highway business and the pivot that we needed to make away from EV, we were all in on EV as a company. It sort of consumed all of our cash flow, as you know. We formed a cross-functional set of teams, five different teams, which were comprised of about 60 of our level II and level III executives. Each of us on the senior management team, we sponsor the team. The strategies that we're gonna talk to you about today really reflect the bottoms-up initiatives that our senior leaders have put in place.
We're pretty excited about it, and I'm sure you will be as we share more of the information here later. In terms of the targets, I mean, we previewed kind of where we see ourselves being in 2030 on our Q4 earnings call. No changes to this slide. We see ourselves growing at about 6% on a compound annual basis to get to $10 billion by the end of the decade. In terms of margins, we're looking to expand from the guidance that we gave this year by 400 basis points. I think a key takeaway there is this is not a back-end plan. It's fairly ratable.
We think we grow at about 60 basis points-100 basis points a year year-over-year. It's not a back-end-loaded plan. In terms of free cash flow, we're guided to 4% for this year. We see that going up to 6%. I would point out that the cash flow number is not as much as the EBITDA growth, and that's because we are making some, I'll say, catch-up investments and margin-enhancing investments in our manufacturing operations, which drive the EBITDA margin. Chris will cover a lot of those in his presentation.
In terms of, you know, our primary focus in terms of capital allocation, we have a big shareholder return plan of $2 billion of buybacks and another $250 million in dividends over the five-year period here. In terms of the five, we call them pillars or elements, we kind of use those interchangeably. But the first three are really focused around growth and how can, you know, now that we don't have the same growth that we thought we did from EV, how can we pivot more of our investment and capture some opportunities? So there's a team that's gonna talk about our traditional products, and, you know, the way to think about that is, you know, our commercial vehicle and light vehicle driveline businesses.
Aftermarket, you know, it was scattered around in the organization within the business units previously. There was a piece in commercial vehicle, a piece in light vehicle, and a piece in power technologies. When we eliminated the power technology segment in 2024, we combined all of the aftermarket businesses, put a common leader underneath, Brian's heading that up in the commercial vehicle space, and really focusing on the opportunities that we have there. You know, I heard an interesting quote from someone said, "Aftermarket, afterthought." That clearly was the attitude that we had with our aftermarket business in Dana. You know, it's a tremendous high margin, very stable business as you all know.
We're making that a priority in terms of our vision here. Applied technologies, Seth's really gonna talk about this one. Here there's sort of two pieces. It's both our, you know, how can we still have growth in EV, and you'll see in our slides here our EV business is profitable. It was for 2025, and we expect to see it double here over the next five years. We still have opportunities, not really here in North America, and certainly not in the light vehicle space, but we do have opportunities there. The really exciting part of applied technologies for me is how can we take some of the things that we do really well and apply those to new markets?
Seth will go through in a pretty granular basis some of the target markets that we have and the growth opportunities that we have in front of us. In terms of on the cost side, it's really two pieces. I'm going to start with structural cost elements. This really builds on the $325 million that we took out of the business in 2025. It's things that we call them structural because they're investments that we need to make to get there. Commonizing some systems, standardizing payroll, moving more things to our shared service center in Lithuania, things that we couldn't get done in one year that we still think we have opportunities in front of us.
Lastly, and most importantly, you know, we have. If you were to go into our facilities, any Dana facility and I'll say an investment-grade company manufacturing facility, what you would see is a radically reduced level of low-level automation. So I'm not talking about you know, walking robots here. I'm talking about basic cobots, minor automation of loading and unloading machines. We have plants that are 80% of our people are loading and unloading machines. So we have a tremendous opportunity to adopt off-the-shelf robotics. AGVs would be another one, and put those into our manufacturing operations. As you know, those tend to be very quick payback, high return projects, and we've got several hundred of those, so I don't want to steal Chris's thunder.
Anyway, those are the elements of the plan. In terms of capital allocation, I just wanted to sort of put this up and reinforce how we think about it. First of all, we are committed to maintaining what we call best in sector balance sheet. We do see keeping our leverage at one turn or less. We think that's important because it will lead. It has led, I would say, to multiple expansion. I mean, as you go up the leverage curve, the beta on a stock and our cost of capital goes up and valuation goes down. We wanna maintain a strong balance sheet. That's where we're at post the sale of Off-Highway, and we're gonna keep it there.
It also lets us ramp up the investments that we're making that we're gonna talk through here today and ride out the business cycles. In terms of how we're gonna use our cash and we've talked about this on several of our calls, is you know we continue to believe our shares are significantly undervalued despite the run-up that we've had over the last 15 months or so. We're gonna grow our dividend in line, I'd say, with the reduction in our share count over the five-year period. We've got you know we're well into our $2 billion buyback.
I think on a year-to-date basis, we've bought about $120 million so far as of yesterday, and we're committed to returning $300 million this year. In terms of the agenda today, here's the walkthrough. Byron's gonna lead us off and go through both Dana overview as well as a traditional product growth element. Brian's gonna come up and talk through our aftermarket business and kinda do a deep dive there, followed by Seth, and he'll talk about applied technologies in EV. Then we'll take a break. The first part of the day is about profitable growth. After the break, we'll go through our margin expansion initiatives, and Chris and Tim will hit those off and then end with a view of the financials.
With that, Byron, why don't you come up and take us through the rest?
Okay. Thank you, Bruce, and good morning, everybody, from my side. Thought we'd start with giving you a bit of an overview of Dana and kinda where we're starting from post the sale of Off-Highway. Founded in 1904, we manufacture highly engineered powertrain components, modules, and systems for the light vehicle and commercial vehicle markets. We have 27,000 highly engaged employees that come to work every day to deliver great products and services to our customers, 5,000 customers that we serve, and those customers operate in 120 different countries. We do that out of 66 manufacturing sites and 11 tech centers that we operate across 24 countries. You can see last year the team delivered top-line revenue of $7.5 billion.
To give you a view of the $7.5 billion from a couple of different angles. First of all, in terms of segment, you can see 70% of our business serves the light vehicle market and 30% for commercial vehicle. You can see pretty highly skewed to North America, and that's really because on the light vehicle side, we tend to focus on segments like pickup trucks, SUVs, so pretty dominant in North America. You can see 60% of our revenue is out of North America and 20% out of Europe, and then 11% out of Asia, 9% South America. Then from a channel standpoint, primarily OE, but you can see 12% there serving the aftermarket.
Bruce mentioned it in his opening comments, big opportunity for us, and Brian will talk more about our plans to expand our presence in the aftermarket. From a customer perspective, you can see Ford is our largest customer at 32%, followed by Stellantis and Toyota. You can see the gray area there at 24% of other. These are multiple customers and various aftermarket and OES channels as well as Tier 1 suppliers that we serve as well. Really, when you step back, we serve and are strategic partners to all the leading OEMs on both the light vehicle and commercial vehicle side, as well as the various aftermarket channels that we support around the globe. A very large and diverse customer base that we have the opportunity to partner with.
The team's been busy over the last 18 months or so, and I thought we'd just take a second to hit a couple of the highlights of what the team was able to deliver here recently. Starting with the backlog, our backlog is up 33% over prior year. We're sitting at $750 million of secure business in the backlog. We report our backlog on a three-year basis. If you expand that aperture and think about it on a five-year basis, then the backlog goes up to $1.15 billion through 2030, and you'll see that as part of Tim's presentation as he gives us a walk on the top line. In terms of EBITDA delivered, great strong improvement over our 2024 levels.
We were up 310 basis points at just over 8% EBITDA margins. Big driver of that was the focus on cost, took out $310 million of cost. Another big issue that the team did a great job navigating through was obviously tariffs last year, so a lot of work on both the mitigation side as well as partnering with our customers relative to recovery, so we were able to deal with that headwind, if you will, and deliver strong results. We obviously completed the sale of our Off-Highway business, which closed the first day of January at $2.7 billion, and obviously, as a result, a big driver in helping us get our balance sheet in a much more solid position on a go-forward basis.
Then we've been buying back shares as well. We purchased 23% of our outstanding shares or 34 million shares, and that equated to $704 million of return to the shareholders. On a go-forward basis, we've doubled our capital return program to $2 billion through our five-year planning horizon. If you owned our shares last year, we delivered a 111% return to our shareholders, so we're really proud of what's been accomplished so far. Today is really all about what's left to go, and we're super excited because as proud as we are of those results, we've got a great plan on a go-forward basis.
As Bruce hit those highlights, it's really about giving you more visibility into the five-year plan that we call Dana 2030. For us, it was also with the sale of Off-Highway, a great opportunity to step back and revisit the company's vision, mission, and values. In terms of our vision statement, it's simple, but it's very aspirational. We wanna be the world's best powertrain company. If we come to work every day focused on our mission, which is to help our customers improve the performance of their vehicles, we believe we will achieve that, the vision that we've set for the company. Just to spend a minute on the values because I think it's important.
It really gets to the culture of the company and our ability to achieve our mission and our vision and, as well as the financial targets that we have in front of us. The first two are really, think about them as the non-negotiables. Safety first, it's absolutely critical that the 27,000 teammates that show up every day get to return home in the same condition that they showed up. It's a big focus for us, making sure we've got the systems and the processes and the training in place to make sure our employees are safe. Acting with integrity, again, a non-negotiable for us. Doing it right the first time, doing it the right way. The third one, empowering our people.
Bruce talked about the fact that our Dana 2030 plan is really a bottoms-up plan that was built by our team and their teams. We know that the best answers don't always sit at the very top of the organization. It's critical that we engage the 27,000 teammates we have to help us find the best solutions to drive the company forward. Key value for us, be accountable. This is about making a commitment and delivering that commitment regardless of the headwinds that we may face. Hopefully you're beginning to see that in terms of how we talk about our targets and how we deliver on those targets. It's about playing to win. There was a football coach. I don't know if there's any Jets fans, but Herm Edwards, right? You play to win the game, right? That's what we're doing.
That's the culture that we're building. It's about driving innovation, and it's about focusing on quality. I'm gonna talk about protecting our core business in a few slides here. If we come to work every day and we deliver on time at high quality and we're competitive, it's gonna be really difficult for our competitors to gain a leg up on us. Okay, so let's get into it. Dana 2030. Bruce mentioned it. It really with the Off-Highway sale was a great opportunity for us to step back and set the course for the company for the next five years. We engaged the top leadership team and our respective teams, really, like, the top 100 folks in the company to help us build this plan.
You'll see as we go through it's a commitment to our customers, to our people, and to the long-term profitable growth of the company. Executing it requires a keen focus on operational excellence, which is why we're gonna allow Chris to speak today to tell us how we're gonna execute the plan, and you'll see real examples of that and the opportunities I'm telling you are just in front of us, and we're just gonna go pick them up and deliver in an exceptional way going forward. Five elements of the plan. Three of those elements are focused around profitable growth and two around margin enhancement and continuing to make sure that we run a lean, cost-efficient organization. If you look at the growth elements, it's about our traditional products.
Again, this pivot back to ICE and hybrid technologies is great for us, falls right into our sweet spot. We're able to capitalize on new opportunities as our customers revisit their product plans, and win new business as a result, as well as our markets recover, particularly on the CV side, we're gonna see tailwind there. On the aftermarket side, Brian will spend some time talking to us about that, but it's about leveraging the OE level of quality and performance that we can bring to the market and capitalizing on those opportunities to grow our aftermarket business in a much more meaningful way going forward. Seth will talk to us about applied technologies. You know, in our mission statement, we talk about helping improve the performance of our customers' vehicles.
There's a lot of markets that need our support to improve the performance of their vehicles, and we're looking at how we bring Dana's capability and know-how to those spaces and as a result, grow the business in that way. A very strong, profitable growth agenda. On the margin enhancement side, really two elements to that strategy. It's about manufacturing excellence. Making sure that the 66 plants that I talked about earlier are all delivering at a high level of quality and efficiency going forward and making sure that we're giving the plants the investments they need to become more efficient day in and day out. It's about structural cost reduction. We've done a lot there.
There's more that we can do to make sure that we're efficient in everything we do to support our customers and our operations, and Timothy will give you a little bit more color on that piece, in his section. That's what Dana 2030 is about, and that's how we're gonna spend the day, taking you through those various elements. In terms of how we're executing and making sure that this is more than just a PowerPoint, we've got a very structured approach to the program, if you will. We have a PMO structure in place that reports directly to me. We meet with the teams constantly going through the various initiatives.
We have over 500 initiatives that are part of Dana 2030, and the point of this structure is to make sure that we've got fast decision-making, that we're empowering the teams to go get after the opportunities that we all see. Okay. With that, we're gonna jump in, and we're gonna go through the first element of the strategy, and I'll take us through that. That's our traditional product growth strategy. Four elements to our strategy here. It's about driving margin expansion opportunities through product line profitability analysis. We have a lot of product lines and a number of SKUs and customers that we serve, and really understanding what our profitability looks like down to a plant level, a SKU level.
For those product lines or products or SKUs that don't meet our financial hurdles, putting plans in place to fix those products, either through cost actions or commercial actions or exiting products that we don't have a pathway to get to our profit expectations. It's about protecting our key programs. We're privileged to serve on some of the most attractive programs and platforms in our industries, and it's about making sure those programs remain a core base of the business. I'll show you a slide here coming up relative to Super Duty, which is the largest program that we supply on from a revenue standpoint, and we've recently secured that business through 2038. Wrangler is another key program for us, which is secure through 2029.
The portfolio of JLR, Jaguar Land Rover trucks, again, secure through 2036. The key programs, the base programs of the company are well in hand through the next decade. It's about leveraging Dana's core capabilities and our installed ICE capacity. Again, with the pullback from EV, pretty much all of our customers are revisiting their product plans, extending ICE programs, and in some cases, introducing new ICE vehicles, and we're positioned well to take advantage of those opportunities. I'll show you some examples of that. It's about growing share where we're currently underrepresented, whether that be customers that we can get a higher share of wallet or segments or regions, and again, I'll show you that opportunity.
As we go into it, as I mentioned earlier, we're starting from a great spot where we've got a new business backlog of $750 million. Just quickly to give you a look at the quoting activity, and I think this also shows you some of the market dynamics that have taken place over the last eight years or nine years. You can see in the 2018, 2019 timeframe, the quoting activity was very low, and that was really a period where our customers were building their EV strategies and programs. Then you can see in the 2020 through, like, 2023 timeframe, the quoting activity really took off, and it was very heavily weighted towards EV. A ton of EV activity there.
You can see only, you know, 15% or so in 2023 was traditional or ICE business. Then here more recently, you can see the pullback, and now the quoting activity has really the pendulum has swung pretty hard in the other direction, where now 75% of what we're quoting is ICE-related business. We've kind of gone through that cycle, if you will, and we've kind of dealt with the ramifications of that, and now we're back on a path focused more on ICE business and taking advantage of those opportunities. Let's talk a little bit about margin expansion. This is really kind of from the product strategy and commercial side. Chris will cover more the cost side. But as I mentioned earlier, we've completed a very detailed product line and customer profitability analysis.
We've looked at complexity in our portfolio and in our plants and looking for ways to rationalize various products or SKUs where we don't see the margins that we're looking for. We're looking through a lens of, at a minimum, 10% EBITDA that each product line and SKU needs to deliver. Where we aren't seeing those levels, we've got teams in place to help us go fix that part of our portfolio. I wanted to give you one. Just double-click on this topic for a second and give you a view into one of our manufacturing sites. This site manufactures gaskets. If you look on the X-axis there, we have 665 different part numbers or SKUs in that plant.
If we look at the cumulative profitability of those various 665 parts, you can see roughly at around 150 of those parts, we kind of reach a peak EBITDA level. In that case, we've got $65 million of sales, $15 million of EBITDA, so we're at 23% margin. Then every part number after that is either break even, so not contributing more EBITDA, or at the tail starts to eat into our EBITDA because those are loss-making parts. You can see under that curve, the next $15 million of sales loses $5 million. With this analysis, we're going through and understanding those, you know, 515 parts and understanding, okay, why don't we make any money on these parts? Is it a cost problem, a design problem, a manufacturing problem, or a pricing/commercial problem?
This is just one example in one plant. We've looked across the entire network, and it's just a ripe area and opportunity for us to be more selective and fix parts of the portfolio that still have opportunity to contribute financially. That's the margin expansion piece. The next element is about protecting the base, and I mentioned that in my opening slide. We've got a number of very attractive high-volume programs that are a core part of our revenue base, and we have to make sure that we continue on those programs cycle after cycle. The Super Duty is a great example. We've been on the Super Duty program since 1998, and just last year, we were able to secure the next generation Super Duty, and it'll be a 10-year program.
That'll take us, you know, out into 2038. You can see just visually in terms of our content, we have a lot of content on the Super Duty axles, prop shafts, a number of our sealing and thermal parts. The good news is, you know, Ford's really looking to expand the volume on Super Duty as they expand to a second plant in Canada, and we'll be supporting that expanded business as well. We're excited to continue to partner with Ford on one of their flagship vehicles in a critical program, obviously, for the company that we've locked up for 10+ years. Another example on the commercial vehicle side, medium-duty truck. We've been serving Isuzu since 2018, and Brian and his team were just able recently to secure that business for us.
not only secure the next generation of the truck, but expand our revenue base through our catalog product by $25 million, so doubling the revenue of that business, which will launch in February of next year. Again, another great success story in terms of protecting our base business. The third element I mentioned was leveraging our installed ICE capacity as we take advantage of this pivot away or dialing back, if you will, of the EV. There are a number of opportunities that we're in discussions with our customers, new programs that we are literally days, a handful of weeks away from being able to announce.
We're working closely with our customers and we continue to see great opportunities to grow our core business as our customers, you know, revisit their programs that they have coming in development. More to come on that front, but there'll be more exciting news we can share with you here coming up. Growing share where Dana's underrepresented, another element of our strategy here under traditional products. This is a great example out of India for us, where we operate a great business with our partner, Anand Group in India. Customer there, Mahindra, had an opportunity where they wanted to outsource their current axle manufacturing, and they wanted ultimately Dana to participate so that we can improve the performance and the technology that they had developed in-house.
We'll be taking that business over mid-2026. It's $50 million of incremental revenue, and over time, we're taking over the current design, and then over time, we'll migrate to Dana design and technology. You can see it's over 600,000 axles for us. A great win for our team in India and another good example of how we're expanding in parts of the world that we are underrepresented. Okay, let's talk a little bit about the commercial vehicle market, as we see this as a great opportunity for us on a go-forward basis. As you know, we've been operating really at the trough relative to volumes in the CV space.
On the left-hand side, you can see in Class V through Class VII last year was really a low point at 195,000 trucks. On the Class VIII side, you can see 251 last year, and our plan is built around 215 this year. On a go-forward basis, both segments are forecasted to grow, you can see at 11% and 7%, and that's really driven by the replacement cycle, more clarity around emissions regulations, and as inventory levels kinda normalize that, we feel highly confident that this volume is going to begin to occur, and we're seeing it in our near-term forecast, demand forecast from our customers. This will be a great tailwind for us over the next five years.
In terms of what that looks like, if you combine those two charts that I had on the previous page, in total for the truck market, we're looking at a 9% CAGR from a volume standpoint. For Dana, we see not only the leverage from the added volume, but we also have an opportunity to grow share over this horizon. Predicting that we'll grow closer to a 15% CAGR. Let me take you to the next page and explain the $200 million and kinda what's behind our strategy to grow share. It's important to just kinda highlight the difference between our light vehicle business, where we work with an OEM customer on a new platform or product. We win that business, and then we supply directly to that OEM over the life of the program.
In the CV space, not only do we have to sell to the OEM so that we are in their product book, we also need to sell to the dealers and to the fleets that are designing in their vehicles and making choices about whose powertrain they would like to have as part of their truck. We have underserved the dealer and fleet network. We need boots on the ground to talk to the fleets and the dealers about the Dana value proposition and make sure that there's pull-through from the data book, if you will, that has Dana as an option. We're investing in this area, and the map on the bottom is just a coverage map.
We're basically increasing our coverage of Dana representatives in the field servicing those customers, the dealers and the fleets, and we believe that doing a better job there and telling the Dana value story will create pull-through of $200 million of sales opportunity. Really excited about that on a go-forward basis. Just to wrap my section before I hand it over to Brian, profitably growing our core business is about streamlining our product portfolio and driving margin decisions. It's about profitable growth and those parts of the portfolio today that aren't delivering. We've gotta attack and fix those pieces of our business. It's about protecting our incumbent position on some of the most attractive platforms in the industry, and I talked about how we've locked those up on a go-forward basis.
It's about leveraging our core capabilities and market-leading technology to capture new programs. Again, our customers are all revisiting their product strategies, and we wanna be there to provide the right solutions for them. It's about taking advantage of the growth in the CV market that we all know is coming and making sure we're ready to capture that volume and gaining share through improving our fleet and dealer field support that I talked about on the last page. With that, I wanna thank you for your attention, and then I wanna turn over to Brian for the second element of our growth, the growth side of our Dana 2030 strategy, and Brian will talk to us about the aftermarket. Thank you.
Thank you, Byron. As Byron mentioned, my name's Brian Pour. I'm the president of Dana's Commercial Vehicle business unit, which also includes our global aftermarket business. Today I'm gonna talk to you about our Dana 2030 aftermarket strategy, but I'm gonna first start by a little bit of show and tell. I'm gonna hand out some of our components that we sell in the aftermarket business, give you guys a chance to just see the type of products, the portfolio, the diversification of what we distribute through the aftermarket. Some different components here. Feel free to just kinda pass these out throughout the room. Also give you some samples of our sealing products, some of the driveline components. You can see the diversification in these sheet gasket sets.
Everything from the small valve seal, valve stem seals, all the way up to what you see up in front here, which is a multilayer cylinder head gasket for a inline six diesel engine. Please be careful. We are getting close to the end of the quarter. All those products need to go back into inventory. We're not gonna pass out the head gasket here because that one needed to cover dinner from last night. That one.
Let me start by saying that Dana's aftermarket business really centers around two iconic premium brands, that being the Spicer and Victor Reinz, and both of which have pioneered their respective categories nearly 120 years ago and have since been the brands of choice by nearly every major OEM nameplate when it comes to driveline and sealing components. The strong OE heritage has resulted in the Spicer and Victor Reinz brands being two of the most recognized names in the aftermarket industry when it comes to quality and durability. Now you also see up there that we have a third brand. That third brand is Tru-Cool. This is a new addition to our portfolio, and it is also built around our OE heritage of industry-leading thermal management components.
Today, our global aftermarket business is split about 60/40 between the light vehicle end markets and the commercial vehicle end markets, and it generates just over $850 million of annual turnover. About 85% of those sales come out of North America. This North America and Europe, Middle East and Africa are what you'll hear me refer to throughout this presentation as the EMEA region. The balance of the sales are really split evenly between South America and Asia Pacific. Globally, we estimate the total addressable market, given the product categories and geographies that we operate in, to be approximately $6.6 billion, and this really reinforces our confidence in the growth strategy that I'm gonna take you through today. Our aftermarket business services four primary sales channels.
Obviously, with our strong OE heritage and extensive installed base as a major Tier 1 supplier in both the light vehicle and commercial vehicle end markets, the OES channel is the path where we support the vast dealer networks of our major OEM customers. In the light vehicle space, these relationships are governed by our typical service part requirements. As the commercial vehicle OES channel is much more of a traditional aftermarket type of transaction and business, and it supports both our install base as well as the all makes, or what we refer to as the independent aftermarket product. That's really because of the diversification of the dealer service centers with the commercial OEMs and how many different nameplates those service centers support.
Warehouse distribution is our largest sales channel where we supply customers such as TruckPro and FleetPride, Federated Auto Parts, and Alliance Auto Parts, just to name a few of them. This is predominantly a supply network for not only the captive locations of these warehouse distributors, but also the hundreds of thousands of independent auto part stores and independently owned service centers around the world. Our retail is our newest sales channel and the one where we see the most significant near-term growth opportunity. We've been aggressively working to break into this channel. I'm happy to say, over the last six months, we have secured contracts and significant market share with three of the major big box retailers, being AutoZone, NAPA, and Advance Auto Parts.
Those three retailers alone represent more than 17,000 storefronts across the U.S. and Canada. Our e-commerce channel supports the familiar marketplaces such as Amazon, Summit, JEGS, RockAuto, but we're also closely aligned with the omni-channel strategies with our key customers across the other channels. We do also offer a select number of unique SKUs through our B2C website as well. Now as we set out to define our Dana 2030 aftermarket strategy, we really was about first establishing our targets. What we wanted to do is our targets were set to grow the top line by no less than $200 million in annual revenue, and to expand our margins by an additional $65 million of EBITDA on the bottom line.
From there, we assembled a cross-functional team, we supported them with market experts, and we asked them to take a fresh eyes look at what we were doing today and really identify what were the things that we're doing right and that we really just needed to capitalize on that momentum and continue to push forward. What were the areas that needed significant change? What were the things that we were completely missing, we did not have in place, and that we needed to develop the clean sheet processes and tools and deploy those out into our business? This exercise resulted in three primary work streams, being demand planning and distribution optimization, pricing, customer segmentation and loyalty, and sales enablement and market share growth.
Now, I'm gonna take some time here to walk you through the details of these three work streams. The foundation of our aftermarket strategy starts with our distribution network and the execution within these sites. Historically, our aftermarket, as Bruce had mentioned, had been integrated into our OE business. As a result, the key metrics and KPIs that we use to manage our OE channels tend to be counterintuitive to the aftermarket business dynamics. All right. Aftermarket is very much an availability business. It's about having the right part at the right time in the right place. Aftermarket customers will prioritize availability over all other attributes, including pricing. Availability starts with being able to achieve and sustain industry-leading fill rates.
This is done through enhanced data analytics and agentic AI agents that predict future demand and then drive our structured sales, inventory, and operations planning process, which we call our SIOP process. Essentially, these tools are helping us to interpret the market trends by product and by region, and so that we're able to appropriate the necessary level of working capital to maintain the required inventories by SKU across all of our distribution centers. We're also revisiting our global distribution footprint to ensure that we're optimizing capacity, logistics, and overall cost structure against both the near-term and the long-term growth targets across all our channels. In addition, we're investing in automation and efficiency improvements across all our DCs to further open up margin and to ensure that we're able to achieve and sustain the industry-leading fill rates.
Now, while distribution is the foundation of our aftermarket strategy, pricing, customer segmentation, and loyalty are the structural pillars to support our growth. This is where we become much more data-driven and intentional in how we set our pricing and we manage our customers. Historically, our list pricing was set based on a production cost-plus model. We're now moving to a strategy where pricing is established according to the perceived value to the customer. This is where we consider factors such as improved performance, durability, and brand reputation. When customers believe products deliver greater durability, efficiency, or long-term savings, they're willing to pay more. We're in the process of building out an enriched product content across our entire portfolio, and we're leveraging that product data to support the customer, the customer value alignment.
This approach will allow Dana and our channel partners to maximize margins while still being competitive in the market. Our second pillar in this work stream is customer segmentation, and this is where we use a data-driven approach to match service, price, and customer support to customer value and behavior. Not all customers will be treated the same. So we've created a tiered structure, meaning that our top buyers receive one level of support, emerging customers will receive another level of support, and so on and so on. This allows us to focus our time, tools, and offers where they are most impactful. Our data analytics will continually monitor elements such as strategic alignment, share of wallet, growth, cost to serve, training reach, and distribution strength. We expect this initiative to drive higher margins, better customer satisfaction, improved inventory efficiency, and stronger channel partner relationships.
Finally, we're launching a loyalty and an incentive reward program. It's a strategic initiative designed to accelerate premium product sell-through and strengthen long-term customer engagement across our channels. We're leveraging QR-based technology that enables us to reward the technician at the point of install. In practice, this means that we're directly incentivizing the individual that is typically disposing of the box and packaging. We're moving Dana from a traditional push model, where we rely on our distributors to pull products through the channel, to a true demand model driven further down the value chain. This approach gives us direct relationship with the actual installers, and it's a scalable platform for future promotions and new product launches. Now all of these actions, our perceived value pricing, customer segmentation, and introducing loyalty programs, will enable Dana and our channel partners to increase sales, improve margin, and drive customer loyalty.
The previous two work streams, they were primarily focused on structural costs, process, and execution to drive margin expansion and support our long-term growth targets. This final work stream highlights the changes that we have and are making across our sales force enablement tools to drive market share growth. Here I'm gonna wanna focus on just one of the substantial growth opportunities with our Victor Reinz sealing products portfolio and some of the products that we've passed along there. As part of our Dana 2030 strategy, we've developed a roadmap that will deliver $135 million in incremental annual revenue within this category alone. Given our OE heritage and pedigree with the light vehicle and commercial vehicle manufacturers, Dana's uniquely positioned to bring premium OE quality sealing products into the aftermarket.
Today, we already hold a strong market share position in the EMEA region, but there is still additional room for growth. In North America, we are now launching the complete Victor Reinz portfolio and expect to achieve approximately $90 million in incremental annual revenue within the region. We have the proven playbook in the EMEA region, and we've recently dropped this exact same playbook here into North America. As I previously mentioned, our strategy is working, and it's been validated over the past six months with the secured contracts and significant market share gains with three of the major big box retailers in the U.S. and Canada. Now to achieve these targets, it first starts with having superior product coverage. Due to Dana's OE relationships, we have the most comprehensive coverage in the industry.
We're also investing in new product development resources focused on further expanding coverage of the European, Asian, and domestic nameplates. We're prioritizing late model coverage using industry data such as the VIO or vehicles in operation. That's really to ensure that we're targeting the applications that will offer the largest near-term growth by region. In addition, it requires appropriate investment in sales enablement and marketing, and we already have plans underway to significantly increase our investments in marketing and advanced AI sales enablement tools. Finally, to support the growth, we're also expanding our staffing of customer-facing sales force, product management, content, and category management. By 2030, our mission is to be the world's leading supplier of sealing components.
If I wrap this all up and really leave you with the kind of the three key takeaways that underpin our Dana 2030 aftermarket strategy, it's about achieving industry-leading fill rates through our critical focus on demand planning and fulfillment. That is enabled by the investments in our inventory systems and use of enhanced data analytics and agentic AI agents to be able to drive our SIOP process. It is also using our enhanced supplier management tools to ensure that we have the right part at the right time in the right place. It is optimizing our distribution footprint and investing in automation and the efficiency improvements to continue to drive margin.
We'll drive stronger channel partner relationships, increase selling price and higher volumes, and that is through perceived value-based pricing based on performance, durability, and brand reputation, and that's underpinned by the enriched product content that we create. Also utilizing the data analytics to segment our customers into tiers and make sure that we are aligning our support, pricing, and service accordingly. It's about deploying an incentive-based loyalty program that creates a true demand model further down the value chain. Finally, it's about unlocking growth and margin expansion opportunities through investment in our sales and marketing, enhanced training and sales enablement tool.
As Bruce mentioned, ensuring that aftermarket is not an afterthought, and then the creation of an independent aftermarket team that has the autonomy and flexibility to be able to adapt and react to the unique dynamics of the aftermarket industry. With that, I'm gonna hand it over to Seth Metzger, our Chief Technology Officer.
Thanks a lot, Brian. As Brian noted, my name is Seth Metzger. I'm the Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer here at Dana. Very excited to talk to you today about Applied Technologies growth pillar. We decided to call this section Applied Technologies because we're taking our 120 years of knowledge and capabilities and technologies and applying them in new ways. This could be applying to a new market or a new segment or creating all new products that we can use for growth. In this section, we're gonna talk through these three areas. First off is our EV growth in current markets. We are changing our strategy and targeting specifically high-value powertrain segments, using a platform approach to reduce costs and complexity and sharing risk here with our OEMs.
We believe this upgraded strategy is gonna create more value for our customers as well as our shareholders. Next up is leveraging our current product to expand into new markets. In this area, we're trying to focus on some attractive growth markets and use the product that we have today and simply applying them in new segments that we haven't participated in a meaningful way. Next up is leveraging our capabilities to create new products. This is where we have some technology that is very interesting to create a new product line that can address an existing segment or enter an all-new segment. Each of these areas are interesting areas for growth. First up, we'll go through a little bit on EV. On the left is our five-year net new EV sales backlog.
As you can see, 2028, we've achieved around $400 million. This is a component of the $750 million that Byron mentioned earlier. If you carry that forward to 2030, that number achieves about $575 million. This is mostly made up of, say, electrified axles, electrified transmissions, more so hybrid transmissions, some of the catalog motor and inverter products, as well as our thermal management technologies. As these programs come online, we're very excited to see these customers be successful in the market. The next is trying to give you a view for what we see for EV adoption. This is looking specifically at battery electric vehicle adoption.
You can see we're comparing North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific, as well as trying to give a view to what's been changing with the outlook. As everyone's seeing, the outlook has been changing pretty dramatically, in particular from 2024- 2025. In North America, we saw a huge decline, and actually our current outlook, there's even further decline. In Europe, we see the outlook somewhat stabilizing, only a small change from the 2025 outlook. In Asia-Pacific, it's gone the other way. Going forward, you know, these are forecasts. It's still gonna be a bit murky on where we think EV will eventually end up. The only takeaway is that in all of these markets, despite the changes, there's still growth.
Since there's growth here, this is gonna continue to be part of our backlog and part of our future growth story. Now, since we are talking about our backlog and that this will continue to be part of the story, we wanted to give you a view here to EV profitability. As with, you know, many of the OEMs and Tier ones, profitability really has been a challenge as we've been trying to scale the business and get more of these products into the market. As such, 2024 and back, we weren't profitable, again, like many of our peers. We're very proud that in 2025, we not only broke even, but made a small profit at about 4%.
As we go forward and deliver that backlog, first off, our sales, we're expecting to be north of $1.1 billion of the electrified products and achieve attractive margins greater than 10%. You've got a very diligent and focused management team making sure that the new programs we take will deliver those returns as these programs come online. Let's talk about the segments that we're going to participate. Just to explain the chart a little bit, across the top, you can see the different segments that will participate along with an image of the vehicle. We're giving you a view to the total addressable market we're expecting by 2030, the top customers, as well as the products.
I'll talk through each of these in some detail. The first one is the e-thermal or the passenger car products. In this case, the e-thermal and passenger car volumes are very large. The e-thermal product lines are a very good fit for those segments. You can see the addressable market's about $3.5 billion, and if you look at the major customers, it's really the all the major OEMs, as well as some of the major Tier1s in this space. The products we manufacture, they're e-motor coolers, power electronics coolers, as well as battery coolers. It's a very interesting space, so we're constantly receiving a lot of RFQs here. The next is really addressing e-transmission and driveline.
This is where I wanna address the question, I'm sorry, the comment earlier about participating in high-value segments. Where we play in our powertrain, it really isn't the passenger car. We really play in these high-value segments, and we call them high-value segments because we think electrification will make the products better for consumers in these areas. Just to explain, the super sports car segment, if you look at this, you know, these, the brands up there, you know, they're really luxury brands or performance brands. People buy these vehicles for a different purpose than just every day going to get groceries or do work. They're buying them for excitement and pleasure.
If you add electric to these machines, in the case of, like, a hybrid dual-clutch transmission, you can make these machines more fun. I mean, a 1,000-horsepower ICE machine is a lot of fun, but if you add 250 more horsepower, it creates even more performance for the buyers of these platforms. In that case, EV will make these vehicles more desirable. That's a key place for us to play. We've got about $500 million of total addressable market by 2030 that we wanna meaningfully participate in. The other vehicles, say light commercial vehicles over to buses. You know, the other end of kind of the mobility spectrum is where the vehicle will do work for someone.
In this case, total cost of ownership, so the total operating cost of these vehicles, that's really what drives people to convert. Now, if you look at the drive cycles, vehicles that drive very, very low speeds have very, very high torques. Time and time again, it's proven that electric is really a better solution. Internal combustion engines aren't very efficient at those under those operating conditions, and electric are. In these cases, say like a school bus, garbage trucks, maybe yard spotters in, you know, in the field that are moving heavy haul equipment around, those we believe will be electrified because it saves money, and that's gonna be attractive here in the future.
If you look at this total market of the electrified business that we're trying to pursue, the total market's about $7.5 billion. A very big TAM for the select areas that we're willing to participate. Going on next. Next we're gonna give you just a view to how's the RFQ list look. In this case, we call it a chase list. Chase list is nothing more than the RFQs we've received from the customers, as well as the opportunities we're already engaged with the customers well prior to them even writing the specs and giving us an RFQ. The first on the left are the electric drive units and e-axles. These are for premium electric vehicles, commercial trucks, those vehicles that do work.
In this case, we've got a chase list of over $300 million, so $300 million of RFQs that we're working actively with customers on. We've got a great catalog of products that we can reuse and redeploy. Our products are very compact, they're very efficient, improve power density. These are things that are gonna be very attractive here to these customers. The next up is the thermal management products. These are the kind of that mainstream passenger car segment. We've got a chase list of over $125 million. We've got our value proposition here really is about our technology.
Our customers come to us when they have the most challenging thermal problems, where they really have to get heat out of a specific area, and we've got some great technologies to help deliver that. This segment is also really interesting because the technologies and the products that we manufacture, they're very fungible between ICE and EV powertrains. As ICE goes down, EV goes up, we're able to manufacture those on a lot of the same lines and same equipment. The hybrid transmissions. These are some of the world's most advanced 1,000+ horsepower super sports cars. This is an exciting segment. We've already won a number of platforms. We've got four major OEMs. They're already using our widely modular and flexible dual-clutch transmissions in this segment.
We've got, you know, as the chase list of over $200 million of incremental opportunities. We're very confident we're gonna secure some additional programs here. Overall, these total EV opportunities is over $600 million just in the chase list that we've got in front of us today. Before finalizing the EV section, I did wanna announce one new heavy-duty pickup truck e-axle win. So this is a truck that is used really predominantly for work. It's a very large platform. We expect at maturity, this is gonna be around $200 million in average sales per year. Start of production is 2029, and this is with the new range-extended EV platform. What is meant by range-extended EV?
Basically, it's a battery electric vehicle with a generator in the front. You address any of the range anxiety, and it has fantastic towing. The value proposition for Dana here, really it's our knowledge and proven reliability in this pickup segment. I think as Byron noted, we're very well known in the industry for leaders in this segment, whether it's in the heavy-duty trucks like this or the compact trucks that kind of do the work all around the world. We developed a very innovative rigid e-beam design specifically for these environments, as well as that range-extended EV. We're very excited to see this platform come to market. Also for, you know, Dana overall, this helps solidify and preserves our role as a market leader in electrified market.
We don't know what pace this segment will be electrified, but we have a great position in ICE as well as EV now with a standard catalog of products. All right. Next, we're gonna talk about some new growth areas. Before talking about the specific ideas that we came up with, we wanted to tell you a little bit about how did we come up with these ideas. So first off, you know, we developed over 300 ideas for us to pursue. This was done by working with our employees from all around the world, talking to customers, going out and actually interviewing them, as well as some third parties to try to get lots of different perspectives on where we could play. We then went through a filtering process.
We wanted to filter on fit and then, of course, some financial metrics. Fit was really looking at, you know, do we have the right technology? Do we have a product? Are we in the right regions? Can we be close to these customers? Then on the financial side, it was trying to see, you know, how big is this market? Is it growing? Are there a lot of competitors? Really trying to understand the determinants of competitive positioning and where we could play. When we down selected, we ended up with five very specific themes that we wanted to pursue. From there, we developed some growth teams. We wanted this to not be just kind of business as usual.
We wanna have some kinda supercharged teams where you have a leader that is specifically looking at these customers, developing these products, and going out and trying to win. We have a leader in each case for every one of these themes, as well as a team beneath them, trying to turn these into businesses. I'm proud to show these are the five areas that we've identified for future growth. The same chart, so no need to explain that, but I'll talk through each of these in some detail. The first off is high performance compute thermal management. I know that's a bit of a mouthful. What this is, it's really about cooling the high performance computers that are on these mobility applications.
Kinda the interesting part about the market right now is a lot of the OEMs are trying to transition from these distributed electrical architectures where maybe you have lots of computers all over the car. You could have as many as 75 little ECUs distributed all over a vehicle. By consolidating them, they're trying to remove all the wiring, all the harnesses, all those little connectors that exist on there, as well as all of the software. Moving to a unified architecture, whether it's a zonal type architecture or otherwise, as well as moving to software-defined vehicle takes a lot of cost out of that platform. Now, the only trade-off with that is once you put all that compute in one space, you need a bigger chip. You need the processing power needs to get more.
As that grows, the passive cooling that exists today isn't gonna be enough, and you need to move to some sort of a liquid cooling technology. That's really where Dana comes in. I showed before a number of the products we make with power electronics coolers, battery coolers, and so on. We definitely have the technology in order to meet these customers' needs. They also need to have a very clean process, and we have a unique fluxless brazing technology that is extremely clean, so it doesn't have to go through any after treatments or so on. We can deliver this technology very much with the capabilities both in the design side as well as manufacturing today. Now, you see the total addressable market. This is about $700 million. This is a really interesting space to play.
You know, this is kinda the steep part of the curve. We expect adoption is gonna be near universal for this type of technology because it saves money for the OEMs in a significant way. You know, this $700 million could be a little faster, could be a little slower. The adoption can change that. By the time this hits the maturity, we expect this to be somewhere between $3 billion-$4 billion market for us to pursue. Very important we get in at the ground floor working with the major OEMs and tier ones in this space. Next up is refrigerant heat exchangers. Refrigerant heat exchangers, these go in electric vehicles. Electric vehicles have a module called a thermal management module.
What this does is it governs basically the heat between all the systems that need to be managed for temperature. Think about, like, the in-cabin experience when you're sitting in the cabin, you wanna turn the heat on or cool it down. Your batteries, your motor, your inverter, all of them generally wanna be at room temperature. This module is actually how they go through and do that, and it manages that thermal system. Well, every module has two or three heat exchangers, and this is for the purposes of using a refrigerant cycle with which to basically generate the heat or the cooling functions. We've been very actively engaged with the OEMs here. We are known for the kind of the stacked plate coolers that you see on that page.
We've received over 35 RFQs in the last 12 months just in this space. The time is really now where OEMs are moving to these battery electric platforms with this technology, and we've got a great redeployable technology to meet their needs. The next is material handling. Now this is very much an electrified market, but at least the areas that we're pursuing, but it's electrified in maybe a different way than some of the passenger car and commercial truck that we've talked about previously. Material handling's been electrified for 40+ years. I mean, most vehicles are electrified working inside of warehouses because you don't want the emissions.
This is a market that is still growing, mostly driven by, I think some of the e-commerce and the large warehouse and distribution sites that have been set up, really around the world. In this area, we're pursuing both the fork trucks like you see there, as well as AGVs or AMRs, which Chris is gonna talk about in some detail. Now, the why now. This is an interesting space that, because of the advancements in technologies, there's new functional safety requirements. So how do you keep the machine safe around operators and in these buildings? Those standards are much more stringent than the previous standards, and we've been actively developing solutions or products that meet those needs.
Actually, a lot of the team and capability from our light vehicle business, we're able to redeploy that capabilities here and deliver. We're the first to market with functional safe inverters that both meet on the software side as well as the hardware with a multi-core safe device. There's also a drive to improve the efficiency of these machines. People wanna be able to operate these things not just one shift, but two shifts without having to recharge. We've developed some interesting technology on the motor side. The existing machines, the predominant solution is an induction motor. The induction motors are only about 70%-75% peak efficiency. When you move to some of the technologies we have, you can get up to 95% efficiency. So what does that mean?
That could mean you could have 30% less batteries or you have 30% more runtime. Those technologies can really make an impact, when you're working with the OEMs, in this space and to us as consumers. Now, the next two items, powersports and defense, these are really exciting segments as well. So much so that we wanted to dive a little bit deeper. I have some slides coming up on these next. Overall, if you look at these new growth areas, this is over $6 billion total addressable market that we're adding for us to pursue, new areas for us for growth. There we go. Okay, this next segment is the powersports industry. This is a really exciting space. If you look at the vehicle there in the front, this is a side-by-side.
I don't know if you knew, but they manufacture over 800,000 of these things a year. Like, this is not a small volume segment. In North America alone, this is over 600,000 of these things are manufactured and consumed. This market is going through some interesting times. It's changing pretty dramatically from the side-by-sides of the past. Mostly the market as well as consumers, they're all demanding better products. I think you start to see when you drive around rural areas, side-by-sides, they're being driven on the road. I'm not sure if any were driving around here in New York on the last snowfall, but if you went a little further out, you'd probably see these sharing the road with passenger cars.
Because they're on the road, consumers want better NVH or noise, vibration, and harshness. They want a quieter ride. They wanna be more refined. They want these to be enjoyable with some similar features to passenger cars. The higher-end models, like this here is kinda one of the sport models, there's a form of kinda horsepower wars where everyone's trying to one-up each other. These machines, when they started, they were 40 horsepower. Now they're 200+ horsepower, and some of the OEMs in this space are claiming that they're gonna move to 300 horsepower in the future, so very much in competition with some of the passenger cars. Finally is product reliability challenges. Obviously, as you improve horsepower, the demands are more on the driveline and powertrain.
Also, this is a segment that is heavily modified. As consumers buy these, they upgrade. They'll put bigger tires on, bigger suspension. You wanna go over the next hill, you wanna go faster, so people like to do that. Because of that, the products, they have some challenges. It's very common that if you're gonna go out with your friends for the weekend, you're gonna bring a spare driveshaft. You're gonna bring a spare half shaft, maybe spare belts. That's not as much fun. No one wants to be left on the side of the trail here while your friends are blasting up. Real challenges that we think we can help them address. This is a great fit with Dana, this segment participating here. Yeah, Dana's got a great offering of brands.
I think probably some of you in the room, you can see the different screens around. We're very well known for our off-road heritage. We have collaborated with Jeep on the Wrangler since 1941. We're associated with the Ford Bronco as well as the Land Rover Defender. Dana very much is in the off-road space. We also have a great catalog of products that can fit the segment needs. Every one of these has a couple of axles, some drive shafts, as well as some of the powertrain products, particularly around hybridization, which is a new trend for the segment. Dual-clutch transmissions, and I'll talk about this one for a sec.
I mentioned dual-clutch transmissions when we were going through the growth areas and as specifically associated with the super sports car segment. The dual-clutch transmissions we make, they're unique. They're made for mid-engine super sports cars. The side-by-side, the vehicle architecture is actually a mid-engine as well, so the engine is behind the driver and the passenger. That's a unique architecture, and it shares that architecture with super sports cars. I'm not claiming we're gonna put a Lamborghini dual-clutch transmission in that thing, but I am claiming that the technology and the know-how to design and architect a dual-clutch transmission for that unique architecture, that's something we have a strong heritage of and great capabilities for.
Overall, what we're committing is to deliver a power dense, more reliable, better NVH, product here to the consumers, which is really what they're asking for. All right, just to double-click on that a little bit and kinda go into some detail. This is a look at some of the current industry products. Many of the products, they started at that very low base where it was, you know, 40-horsepower machines and went up a little bit from there. But many of them are still based on this industrial style designs. Talking about bevel or spiral gears. These are noisy. They're very basic products. Pinion disconnect that maybe has a lot of lash, so it clunks inside of the vehicle. Universal joints and drive shafts that are not the most reliable.
A lot of them are imported from China, in these examples. If you look at what Dana is able to deliver, we're able to deliver automotive-grade, high-quality products. Hypoid gears that are stronger than the industrial style designs, but also better in NVH and durability. Differential disconnects that remove all that lash and make it quiet when you're engaging the lockers, as well as Dana Spicer universal joints and drive shafts, which are very reliable. Overall to consumers, we can offer better strength, better reliability, a quieter ride, as well as improved warranty profile. We think now, because of the demands of the industry, now is the time to introduce automotive-grade drivelines, and we're the partner that wants to do it. Okay. Next up is the defense sector. If...
Just to draw your eyes, look at the very bottom. You can see that Jeep-looking device. That is actually an original Willys-Overland MB. This was the military Jeep that was developed for the defense industry. Dana, interesting fact, we worked with Willys-Overland, Bantam, and Ford to develop all of their prototypes. We provided the axles, the drive shafts, the transmissions, as well as the transfer cases for this segment. Of course, we've experienced the, you know, benefit of the growth of that platform. If you look around the page, we're on some of the lesser-known products, like the REO Eager Beaver, where we provided some driveline products, as well as some of the other heavy duty trucks and so on.
Even up in the top left, the tanks, that's actually a picture from our Warren manufacturing facility just outside of Detroit. Defense has been something that's been part of our heritage really from the beginning, and it was very logical. This was an area that we would invest in for future growth. All right, the defense industry, this is an interesting segment. It is one that is growing. We are seeing increased spending in North America, Europe, and really the rest of the world. This is really driven by the large amount of political unrest that we all see today. Some of the trends here, really it's around modernization and this transition to something called commercial off-the-shelf parts.
The defense industry wants to move to products where really they're based on OE platforms upgraded for defense rather than unique kinda one-off platforms of yesteryear. There also is a strong drive for hybridization to reduce the cost to get fuel to the front lines. These are great trends, and they create a great fit with Dana. We're on a number of the OE platforms, as you saw from the previous sections, with our axles, drive shafts, and we have a great catalog of e-powertrain and generators that can help meet the hybridization needs of this segment. We also have some interesting technology called the tire inflation system or Central Tire Inflation System. What this does is it inflates and deflates the tires.
Why is that important? It's that when you're off-road, having lower air pressure in your tires gets you better flotation, lets you perform better. You don't sink in the sand, and you can move a lot faster. Then when you get back on the road, you can inflate those tires, and drive at highway speeds. It also has the capability that if you know, somebody shoots a hole in your tire, you can actually keep the tires inflated enough to get away. Very important technology for the military. We have a very strong position in North America. We're on most of the wheeled platforms that exist today. Very good fit for Dana. This next page is again trying to look at product alignment.
Along the left you can see the type of platform, light duty, medium duty, heavy duty, and then on the right are all the different defense platforms, whether it's ISV or JLTV, all the way down to HEMTT. We have technologies and products in production that can be modified in order to meet their needs, so axles, drive shafts, and so on. To be a little more specific, I wanted to share a little bit on the GM Defense ISV. This infantry squad vehicle is a great platform where we're able to apply our OE products with some enhancements to meet the needs of the market. This program is one that initially started around 2020, and it is going through an uplift as the demand has peaked.
We've got an uplift that's supposed to start in September 2026, and it's very good reuse of our products and technologies. We were able to deliver these very quickly ramp technology 'cause we have capacity in order to meet the military requirements. In summary, we believe we have a very balanced growth strategy that is powertrain agnostic. I think you saw quite a few examples in this segment as well as in Brian's and Byron's of both applying traditional powertrain technology as well as EV powertrain technology.
We believe that EV growth is very attractive, and we're targeting some very high-value segments, not just the mainstream passenger car stuff, high-value segments that should be electrified because they create a better experience for the consumers. The total addressable market is gonna be about $7.5 billion by 2030, and we've got over $1 billion of that secured already. We're pursuing an incremental $600 million in incremental growth in the EV space, and we believe our new strategy helps reduce the market and investment risk, and overall will create more value for customers as well as shareholders. The next is adjacent segments. I hope everyone found this as a very exciting space for us.
We've got, adding another $6 billion of a total addressable market for us to pursue by 2030. These segments, most of them are mature, kinda low-risk applications of existing technology. We're not putting somebody on the moon with this. This is using the capabilities that we have and redeploying them. We've got dedicated teams to focus on growth. Our expectation is that we're gonna be able to deliver around $400 million of incremental revenue with a very attractive profit margin from the adjacent technologies here. Okay. With that, the next section is going to be margin enhancement. Before we go into that, we wanted to give everybody a 15-minute break. So thank you.
All right. Good morning, everybody. Hi, I'm Chris Clark, and I run global operations for Dana. Today, while there's a great deal inside of manufacturing excellence, I'm gonna cover really three key strategies that we will focus on here over the next three and a half years. The biggest is the automation piece, and I'll kinda cover some more detail about that over the next several slides. Then our make versus buy. The thing about make versus buy is what is core and critical for us to produce inside that differentiates us from the market, and obviously, there's some things that are tied to intellectual properties, and that we're gonna generate over $50 million of accretive value there.
Then on the manufacturing footprint, we're gonna keep that pretty high level, but a lot of activity has been going on there, and we will continue to work on that here over the next three and a half years. As Bruce said, you know, there's always priorities as you think about investing of capital. Really to get to an investment-grade manufacturing organization, you really have to focus on what you do for a living. Now that we have really shifted our investment strategy here over the last year, we've really focused on these key areas, and automation is a big one for us. I will share the three different technologies you see at the bottom of the screen. Robots, they've been around for quite a long time, right? Many industries use them.
The next one is the cobot or collaborative robot. That really has something that's been coming on strong over the last several years. It's a great technology, and I'll kinda explain why that is. Then the last one is the autonomous mobile robot. Now, Bruce kinda mentioned the AGVs, and then we are really driving towards the AMR, which I refer to because of its flexibility of moving things around the facility, and I will give an example of that and some of the investment that we're doing in that strategy as well. This one here is a key one, 'cause we're always thinking about how do we protect our employees, right? It's all about ergonomics, and it's all about how we make sure that none of our employees can get injured, right?
We want everyone, as Byron said, we want them to go home the same way they came to work. We have a lot of heavy parts. We have a lot of high-velocity plants, and we're moving a lot of stuff around and making things every single day. If you see on the picture on the left, that is a machine load for a tube, and there's one individual there that's just working to make sure that we straighten that tube out. There's another person that also uses a lift because these parts can range anywhere from 60 pounds up to 900 pounds, so they need lift assist to move all of these components around the facility. You can see that there's a ton of opportunities for them to pinch their hand, crush their hands, and obviously we wanna make sure that we prevent that.
If you see on the right there is we were able to automate the cell, and we are setting that up with a robot, and you will see a video here shortly of how we physically move all of those products around with the robot. What you see there in the background with the tubes where they're kinda all stacked, that's also gonna tie into our AMR strategy as we continue to move forward. Another area that, you know, I didn't really talk about, but as a key focus area is AS/RS or automated storage and retrieval systems, which is really what we're working for with the aftermarket group. Again, all about speed, efficiency, and we are also in an agreement to work on the humanoid robot and evaluating the capability of those inside of our system.
One of the key things I wanna share with you that we've learned as we've really been driving towards these three technologies is the integration of our artificial intelligence or AI and machine learning that's drastically not only improved our efficiency, but our quality of product, which is critical in this business. Aaron. There it goes. You can see it here that the robot is physically picking up. Think about the presentation of the part. It is not perfectly straight. The robot is placing it into a gauge, and then it goes into the machine, and one of the things that we were able to integrate into that machine is the artificial intelligence piece.
That tube is loading in, it is actually learning all of the characteristics of that tube, and it's determined based on the tolerances that engineering provides to make sure that tube is straight. We were always doing that with manual gauges or by hand with people. Now we are utilizing all of that technology to drastically improve our efficiency. This particular cell, this is a multiple cell. We have this set up in three different areas inside the plant. We improved efficiency by 20%, and as you can see, the savings was quite significant, and again, the payback within seven months.
Our target for all of our automation projects is that we wanna be a year and a half or better as it relates to the cobots and the robots, and that's why we've really been driving the investment and the shift to really get this cost efficiency and effectiveness inside the business. Okay. The next one here is, we had a late engineering change that came through on the customer. You can see on the left when I comb the magic markers, but they're basically a flux control. You can see we had over 15,000 parts. We have multiple people that are tracing and having to apply this material to a cold plate to prevent leakage and any issues inside of an EV product. We were able to work with the cobots, which is on the right-hand side.
Utilizing the cobots, perfect repeatability, same thing, utilizing a vision system that has AI integration into it to ensure the traceability and the repeatability is virtually perfect. You can see a drastic improvement in our scrap downstream, over 80%, and you'll see in the video the efficiency. The other thing I wanna highlight about the cobot that's fantastic is that normally a robot system, because it does not have the servo controls, requires a significant amount of caging and investment to protect the robot and make sure there's no human interaction. The cobot, a person can stand directly next to it, and in many of our operations, we have people that are working directly with the cobots and doing assembly and manufacturing with that product.
It's a huge technological move, and we've had heavy investment in that, and we will continue that over the next several years. I'm gonna show you a video real quick and the capabilities. Here you can see the magic markers are now located inside of the cobots, and you can see the speed and the movement that they make. Again, another AMR project, which is coming up here shortly, is already being developed to move those plates in and out and take them to line side for usage. Our first time through or what we're always targeting for an OEE is over 99.7% with these cobots. It's a great technology, and again, we've introduced and we have over 100 applications already globally that we're utilizing this technology. Three years ago, we had six. Okay. The AMR.
Material movement, why do we choose the AMR? It's because of its flexibility to move material all through the location. Back in the past, the AGVs or automated guided vehicles require drive-by wire, putting tape on the floor. They have fixed paths. With the integration with our IT team, these things know what point A and point B is, and they will figure out whatever path they can take through the location, 'cause it's all GPS managed, to get to the point of use, and then we track the time and make sure that we don't have any inefficiencies through the process. We have 50 of these applications going right now, and then over the next three and a half years, we wanna get to 200. This is always a continuous process.
This is where we'll be over the nextthree and a half years, but our intent is to replace almost 80% because the technology to deal with, as you can see in the lower left picture here, the heavier equipment, packaging, and that has to be developed to make sure that we can continue to enhance that, and we're working very closely with our purchasing team and our suppliers to make sure that the packaging's developed so that we can move all this material through our facilities. There we go. With all of that, right? Now we're thinking about what is it we should make and what should we buy. The key about the make for us is do we have process capabilities that differentiate this and gives us competitive advantage in the marketplace? We keep that in-house, and we will continue. Gears is a perfect example.
Other items that we produce, and I'll give you an example of that, are basically really a commodity that don't give us any special differentiation or, I guess, advantage inside of the marketplace. I'm gonna share some of those examples. As you can see down below, an entire cross-functional team worked across these six different pillars to identify every single product that we produce, every single component. What do we make? What do we buy? As you can see, some of the key considerations, right? Do we have the capacity? Is it point of use for the customer? Are there any logistics issues, right? Challenges with tariffs, right?
All of those things have to be incorporated in that decision before we actually go and make the decision or trigger to go either make the product in-house or are we gonna go buy it. Okay. Perfect example of a make that we have shifted towards. Castings. In North America, this has become a very distressed marketplace to produce these type of components. As an organization, we did the full business case. We looked at tariffs, we looked at the performance of our suppliers from a quality and delivery perspective, and now we've decided to insource this. We have a facility already down in Mexico, and we are going to reconfigure and then put in this extra line so that we can bring that capacity, that quality control and efficiency back inside of our four walls.
As you can see, it's a large capital investment and it will take several years to put in place. You can see what the annual savings is, and that's built in run rate going forward. That's really how we're thinking about how we invest in our business, is how does it impact our run rate and how does it get accretive margin here for the shareholder value? That's what we're always pursuing and chasing. Here's an example of a buy. Currently, these are what we call end yoke or sleeve yokes. We've been producing these for a long time inside of our organization. We have very legacy assets that we produce these products on that drive some different challenges. As we looked at this particular product, we made the decision that we are in fact going to outsource this.
We already have started the process. It's 90% complete, where you can see, one, it generates a better savings versus where we were producing the product. Two, it reduces our capital investment, so now we can use that money to go invest in, again, automation or some areas of the business. As you can see, it's taken us about a year and a half. As Byron mentioned, one of the key strategies that we are obviously working very closely with the commercial teams is de-proliferating our product. 'Cause like all things, the more products, the more part numbers that you're dealing with, the more changeovers you have to do, which drives inefficiency in the process. We are working, again, as part of the whole 2030 strategy.
It's all intertwined to make sure that we're driving the best value for the organization, and again, improving our margins, which also leads to, again, great shareholder value. Okay. Last thing I want to touch on is our manufacturing footprint. As you can see, this is what we look like from a light vehicle and a commercial vehicle. You can see we're pretty centric up in North America. We have a decent footprint in Mexico, and then obviously we're in Europe and we're scattered there in India and China now. Over the next several years, we have already targeted seven sites that we will be consolidating and/or idling, which will free up about another 1 million sq ft for us while we will continue the growth. All of this is in conjunction.
While we're improving our footprint, while we're going through this growth over the next three and a half years, we can still manage and contain that all within the footprint that we'll be as we move forward in the future. You see the $25 million annual savings by 2030. Site consolidations and closures have a longer lead time, so as we go through that process, we'll see more of the return as we go past 2030. It's just, again, closures can take several years to go through that whole process. Okay. In wrapping up, we have over 300 projects identified. We've already completed 50 projects that are already active and built in. We continue to learn and integrate artificial intelligence, utilizing inside of the cobots, the robots, the AMRs.
Our make, buy decision-making is always a continuous process, no different than our automation strategy. Obviously, the footprint optimization always comes with how we're evaluating new business and where are we going from a perspective of optimizing our capacity and being where our customers need to be. It's all tied to the growth strategies that you guys heard about this morning. In closing, we're a manufacturing company. We design, manufacture, and assemble product. We gotta deliver great quality. We have to deliver it on time, all the time. One of the key values that we really push for, right, is play to win every hour, every shift, every day.
We've driven that down to the shop floor, and it is always about driving accretive margin, which again, we've got $175 million that'll be accretive to the business by 2030. With that, pass it on to Mr. Timothy.
How you guys doing today? Everybody enjoying the time up here? I'm gonna wrap it up from a financial perspective. You know, over the last hour and a half, two hours, we've talked about our traditional growth avenues, applied technologies, aftermarket, all key pillars of our growth. Then we just heard from Chris about how much opportunity exists within the business from a pure margin improvement in terms of how we're thinking about our manufacturing. What I wanna do is kinda lay out how we're thinking about this from a financial perspective. You know, as we went through the process of Dana 2030, we were laser-focused on the targets that we had set.
as Bruce mentioned in his opening comments, we thought what we thought were pretty lofty goals and targets for the teams, and they blew us away in terms of what they came back with. We know this is only the beginning, and as we continue to work the teams and find new areas, we're only gonna be able to deliver better and better returns for the shareholder. That was the real focus here, right? How do we continue to drive the business to become more efficient, more effective, higher returning, so that we have the capital to invest in our people, our communities, our plants, and deliver those returns to the shareholder?
With that quick snapshot, most of you know this, $7.5 billion this year, 10%-11% adjusted EBITDA margins, and free cash flow of $250 million-$350 million. If you think about where we were last year, we had $311 million of adjusted free cash flow. That included the cash flow generated by Off-Highway. When you think through the work that's been done just at the base of the business, we're gonna generate just about the same amount of free cash flow on a business that's 20%-25% less in terms of the top line and was our most profitable business unit.
Aftermarket, we're starting from a base about $850 million, as Brian described, and we'll continue to be able to drive that. I think key thing here, we continue to think about our leverage. Our leverage will be about 1x on a net basis, as we come through the year. We're laser-focused on maintaining our leverage at that manageable level as we kinda go through the cycle. Talk a little bit about that more. Bruce mentioned this $300 million. We're targeting $300 million of stock buybacks. We have already completed about $120 million of that, and we continue to go forward. Then dividends, we'll continue to maintain that dividend at $50 million.
Talking about this is the element wheel. Overall, what you heard today was about $2.5 billion of top-line growth between 2025 and 2030. If you think about how that breaks down, our traditional growth products, the things that we have made Dana great for over 120 years, that represents just under $2 billion of that $2.5 billion worth of growth. We're not talking about, I think, Seth made the comment that we're not trying to put people on the moon here. We're not going into products that are far from where we're at in order to drive this growth. Like almost $2 billion of it is in those core products.
Aftermarket, we talked about it. It's about an $850 billion business growing to just over $1 billion. Again, we're talking about a 30% growth rate over a business largely in North America that we haven't really participated in on the sealing side for the last 15 years. Then Applied Technologies, we're $6-$7 billion of market available growth for us, and we're targeting in our plan $400 million. Very achievable, and I think what we're gonna find is a lot more opportunities as we move through the next few years on these programs.
As I just described, if you think about our $7.5 billion in 2025 sales, our backlog that we came out with over the next three years is $750 million, and that's secured. If you just took the same programs, and you take it out to 2030, there's another $100 million that's already secured within the backlog. Incrementally about $300 million, again, traditional products that we sell today, programs that we have high confidence in being able to deliver, adds another $300 million. We talked a little bit earlier on where the CV market is, right? We were at a trough last year.
We add about $350 million of sales over the five years just from a recovery in the CV market. This is not growing market share. This is really just the number of volumes of vehicles that are being produced by our customers in the markets in which we serve adds $350 million. We got traditional products. This is another $400 million. $200 million is market share gains that Brian spoke about with our CV customers, right? This is field service, all those programs that he talked about in order to go and grow the share that we have in the CV market, largely in North America.
The balance of that is $200 million of additional growth in our traditional markets, right? Not a huge number. We got $200 million in the aftermarket and the Applied Technologies. That's the roadmap we're following to grow from the $7.5 billion we are today to $10 billion in 2030, which basically puts the company back to the top line that we had prior to the sale of Off-Highway. That's a 6% CAGR. Before I get into the bridge on earnings, I did want to take a moment to talk about the last element in the Dana 2030 strategy, which really is structural cost reduction.
As all of you are fully aware, we've spent the last 15 months really working on the cost structure of the business, taking $325 million of cost out of the business. This is on top of that $325, and as Bruce mentioned, these are really elements of structural costs within the business that take a little bit longer to get out. We really focused on elements in our cost structure last year that we could take out quickly and at minimal cost. These are longer-term. These are really base items that we need to work on in order to increase the efficiency inside of our system. Think about our ERPs, how we do order to cash, payroll system.
We have disparate payroll systems. All of these basic systems need that foundation built in order to deliver those. You think about its back-end systems moving to low-cost countries for the types of repetitive data processing that we have, automating those processes, using AI in a productive way in order to take some of the repetitive data analytic-type tasks out of the system. Some of this will be just doing things that we do today we're not gonna do tomorrow. That's $50 million over the next five years. Again, very reasonable expectation given what we've been able to do over the last year with the $325 million. With that, if we move on.
It's not on the page, but I thought one thing to think about, if you look at the company that we have today that we're running, that company did about $7.7 billion in revenue in 2024 and had $395 million of adjusted EBITDA, 5% margins. Last year, on a like basis, we did $610 million, so a large improvement driven largely by increased efficiency and cost savings. This year we're targeting our $800 million. To walk the $800 million to our, you know, 14%-15% margins, you know, think about how this rolls out. We're talking about adding in our traditional products $1.9 billion worth of incremental revenue. That's if you think about the first two columns, right?
$350 million basically comes through at about an 18% margin. Our plan assumes that we're gonna be able to use our normalized margins to generate the incremental growth on profitability and largely use those systems to offset the inherent inflation that's in the business. We're not saying that every dollar that we're gonna bring through over the next five years is gonna come through at a high contribution margin rate. We're looking at a very reasonable 18%-19% rate coming through and some of that's due to the mix of the businesses, but also because we're really thinking about how we have to invest in some of these programs.
Think about the field service program that comes with an OpEx investment that we're more than willing to make and still be able to generate good returns around the business. Our aftermarket, so $200 million of aftermarket sales comes through at about 32.5%, generating $65 million. We would expect that coming out of our aftermarket business. That's high profit margin business for us, and one of the reasons why it's a key part of our growth strategy. Moving on. Applied Technologies. Again, these are while these are adjacent technology, we know we will have to add some incremental costs into the business to deliver those sales. Those sales, $400 million at 15%. Again, just our targeted margins. We think there's certainly additional opportunity as we grow beyond 2030 in those applied technologies.
That's where we think we'll see more of that higher contribution margin dollars flowing through. To get us to where we're going to be in 2030, just an easy 15% from our perspective in terms of being able to generate the profitability. Then the balance, Chris just took you through $175 million of improvement, pure margin improvement related to the manufacturing excellence. I mean, you really think about it, right? We're talking about the automation in our plants generating $100 million of additional adjusted EBITDA over this five-year period.
These are largely in plants where we make ICE products that we understand the volumes. We know how the plant operates. We have a very clear understanding of the demand cycles for those programs, and our ability to deliver that $100 million is at a very high confidence because we know the throughput's gonna be in those plants when we put the automation in. Lastly, the structural costs that I just spoke of, an incremental $50 million. Largely, our normal cost improvement actions are offsetting inflation over the plan period. Our new business is coming in at a moderately higher 18% or 19%, and then the rest is really self-help on the cost improvements and reasonable returns in terms of margin coming in through aftermarket and the applied technologies.
Again, 6% on the growth on the top line, delivering a 17% compounded annual growth rate on our adjusted EBITDA line. What does that really mean? I think we've been very focused on cash flow over the last 15 months. We will continue to be very, very focused on cash flow. While our cash flow doesn't rise as quickly as either our sales or our adjusted EBITDA, that's largely because over the same time period, we're investing a considerable amount of that cash, both in working capital around our aftermarket group, as well as the CapEx to drive the manufacturing and other investments, as well as some of the growth that we need.
We're willing to use those funds, the operating cash flow we generate over those next four years to really help support and generate the growth within the business. Still a very healthy 6% return on the top line. We're talking about $600 million of free cash flow in 2030. I thought this would be interesting. 2021- 2025, where we were very focused on the EV growth that we had in front of us, we spent about $2 billion of our operating cash flow or generated about $2 billion of the operating cash flow. We spent that largely on CapEx and a lot of that around EV and the growth prospects around that. We only spent about 16% on share repurchases.
Just to be clear, that does not include the $650 million we bought back last year from the proceeds of the sale of Off-Highway. Then dividend and a little bit of M&A activity. Generally speaking, we did not return much of our free cash flow or our operating cash flow back to the shareholder over that time frame. We reinvested in the business, it was basically all of our cash flow. Fast-forward to 2026 through 2030, we expect our plan to generate operating cash flow of about $4 billion, so we've doubled the amount of operating cash flow generated in the business. We plan to spend nearly 1/2 of that, almost $2 billion on CapEx.
Again, we're gonna spend more on CapEx over the next five years than we did in the last five years, and we will still have over $2 billion available to invest to return to shareholders, to support the dividend and, you know, other aspects where we may wanna invest in the business to drive the growth. I think this really sets up the company very, very well for having a lot of flexibility and to demonstrate to our shareholders that we continue to be focused on cash flow generation and returns to returning the excess capital to our shareholders. What does this really mean? Again, we were talking before on a little while ago on our margins in 2024. Well, in 2024, our return on invested capital, pre-tax and invested capital, was 5%.
In 2025, given the improved profitability, it was still only 12%. Where was that money going, right? 2024, we were spending almost 8% of our sales on CapEx and R&D expense. If you fast-forward to 2030, we're gonna spend $60 million more on CapEx and R&D, but it's now only less than 6%-7% of sales. While we're increasing from 2026- 2030 by 23%, the effectiveness of those investments in terms of the return profile increase exponentially. What you're seeing is a very, very focused team to deliver high returns on the capital that we're going to employ back into the business. If we go back to this last slide, 45% CapEx.
Those CapEx investments, we are laser-focused on making sure that they deliver a return that's far in excess of our cost to capital. 2026 is 15%. That's respectable. The target for 2030, based on the plan that we put in front of you, is we will be returning about 30% return on invested capital on a pre-tax basis. This, combined with the efficiency, the capital return policy, we believe is a recipe to drive the share price and the shareholder returns for the company. Speaking of shareholder returns, some of this are already covered, but I did wanna re-hit. We have a $2 billion authorization currently, and last year we bought back $650 million, about 34 million shares. We're continuing to buy back.
We'll do another $300 million this year. Last year returned over $700 million to our shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. This says 115, but it was 120 as of last night. We're in the market buying about $1 million worth of stock a day right now. We expect those share repurchases to be at the high end of the range for the year, and our current shares outstanding about 109 million shares.
As you know, we increased the dividend by 20% earlier this year, really in line with, as we continue to take down our share count. We will continue to maintain about a $50 million dividend, and that will result in the per share amount of the quarterly dividend continuing to rise over the period. The five elements of our Dana 2030 strategy, right? Above market rate growth, right? Will be supported by the new business wins. 6% percent CAGR on the top line, a 17% compound annual growth on adjusted EBITDA, and 11% for our free cash flow generation. Our free cash flow should rise from about $300 million today to $600 million in 2030.
This is really a fundamental improvement in operations, really those cost outs and the types of business we're chasing to really drive top quartile margins in our business. We know that we have the products, the technologies, and the leadership to deliver on what we believe is the ability to give a top quartile returns to our shareholders. Accelerated free cash flow generation. Again, we spent the last five years really thinking about the EV growth and spending money on that, on chasing that growth. We are really focused on free cash flow generation and deploying that free cash flow generation in the most effective way possible. The number one focus for the team is to continue and to be relentless in increasing the shareholder value that we deliver.
In summary, our targets $10 billion in revenue by 2030, 14%-15% adjusted EBITDA margins, and 6% free cash flow. That, from our perspective, is a recipe to continue to drive the share price higher and higher. With that,
While the guys are getting ready, we'll have microphones here. I've got a question right here, Aaron. And then we'll get you next.
Ready?
Yeah.
Tom Narayan, RBC. Thanks for taking the questions. You know, a big part of the presentation had to do with growth. You have aftermarket as a piece of it, then you had adjacent markets. I understand that, historically you haven't pursued that, now there's an opportunity to do so, but presumably some of those markets are already captured by legacy, you know, suppliers.
Mm-hmm.
you know, in the, maybe, in the aftermarket piece, I know the sealing and
Mm-hmm.
Maybe you could talk about those big box retailers, who's already there, why you think you can capture that? On the adjacent markets, I know some of that's organic, but presumably some of that is also, you already have legacy players that are-
Yeah.
That are already there.
Yeah. Good. Let's let Brian take the aftermarket first piece first.
Thank you, Bruce. For the aftermarket, what I can tell you specifically, and I think we highlighted. We see our biggest growth opportunity in North America, right? That is truly in bringing the Victor Reinz brand to the North American market and expanding that product portfolio. Today, that space has got it's got a very large piece of that market share is tied up with one specific competitor. That competitor is going through a number of changes, a number of disruptions into their business, leadership changes, so forth, and they have been falling down in performance, and the customers are opening up the opportunities.
Mm-hmm.
Customers need to diversify. They need to balance those buys. What we are presenting today is not that we are gonna go in and take over that entire market share, but it's a truly a balanced buy, a balanced market share between us and the competitive landscape across those big box retailers.
Yeah, I mean, maybe just another one on that one, Brian, is we are very successful in this space in Europe because we are in the aftermarket selling an OE product, and we're competing here in North America with players that are making inferior quality products versus the OE specification. When you think about, you know, a gasket like this when you're doing an engine rebuild, the cost is minuscule compared to the overall job and people want the OE product, and so we just have not been in this space in North America. Seth, why don't you take adjacent?
Yeah. I'd love to cover some of the applied technologies. I think the first two growth areas that we're looking at are with the refrigerant heat exchangers and the high performance kind of computing and thermal management. Those are all market growth, so now's the time to get in on those because they're growing. There really aren't established players. In the areas of say the material handling, power sports, defense, there's established players that we are kind of taking share, I think as you described it. Talk through some of those. Kinda there's an interesting time right now for all of those on why it makes sense that we're gonna take share. Just look at material handling.
There's two kinda main players that have a lot of that share today. They're both going through significant disruption for different reasons themselves as companies. Also kinda industry-wide, there's a technology change. This drive for higher functional safety means it kinda levels the playing field for everybody to, you know, everybody to go after these. We were the first to
Mm-hmm
Develop the technologies that will address that demand because we've already done so in the light vehicle space. In that case, using some of that capability lets us, you know, go in there and participate. I think in the powersports segment it's kind of a similar thing. A lot of the suppliers that are there today, they're really more industrial style. We're introducing automotive-grade components and that's how we're gonna take share. We're gonna take share by delivering better quality, better power density, better efficiency than what they have. They're suitable suppliers today.
Mm-hmm
For the products that are gonna be in the future, we don't think they're going to be. In the defense space, again, it's kind of a similar story. The time is now where the technology is changing, where the OEMs want commercial off-the-shelf parts, and that drives, you know, demand really from the things that we make in our plants today, not these specialized bespoke, you know, portfolio product that the competitors are offering today. Like, they wanna get out of those because they're hard to get parts, they're very expensive, they're built on old technology. They want the new technology that's going in cars and trucks.
Yeah, I mean, when Seth put up a slide kinda showing how he funneled their 300 projects down to the ones that we've taken, and clearly a part of that screening process is, "Hey, how come Dana can, how can we be successful? Like, have we got a technology? Is there a competitive issue? Is it a new geography?" And we've, you know, the ones that didn't sorta pass muster are on the cutting room floor.
If I could do a quick follow-up. You know, a lot of the assumptions you have in the plan assumes kind of a status quo auto world to some extent.
Mm-hmm.
One of the things we hear a lot about is Chinese OEMs, the Chinese automakers penetrating new markets. If they do penetrate the U.S. in some fashion, whether it be a JV or, I don't know, acquiring brands, et cetera, one of the fears we hear about is they're very vertically integrated. You know, this OEM insourcing topic kinda comes up. You know, to what extent is this something you're actually concerned about at all? Is this some black swan thing we shouldn't be worried about? You know, how do you think about that?
I can take that one real quick. I think there's a couple of things. One, you know, I think this isn't too terribly different than sort of the early eighties when the Japanese OEMs came in. I think the real differentiator for us is most of the Chinese, you know, entrants are gonna be EV and they're gonna be passenger car. Largely, our market in North America are large trucks and SUVs for which the Chinese don't have an established product base to go from. When you look at our product portfolio, it's relatively well-insulated, you know, from the types of products that could be coming in from the Chinese.
I think if you think about the also even on EV, we're not playing in the passenger car space even today largely from an EV perspective. I think that's a valid, you know, concern to keep out there and one that we obviously think about as a management team. We also think we're really well-positioned-
Mm-hmm
... you know, from a product technology and customer perspective to be able to address that. Look, there's probably some opportunities for us. You know, BYD is a customer, you know, in China. We do have Chery as a customer in China. We do have relationships with these OEMs, and so we do think that leaves some opportunities. I mean, a lot of it's a light vehicle, so Byron.
Yeah. No. I think you hit it on the head. And when we look at, you know, as others have entered the North American market over time, I mean, we're a key supplier to the Toyotas, the Nissans, the Hyundai Kia. So, you know, should that need arise, we'll be there because again, we bring a product and a set of capabilities to serve the segments that Tim talked about, that even for new entrants I think they would look to Dana to help.
Yeah
If they wanted to enter those segments.
Yeah.
Kinda on the flip side, if you look at our light vehicle driveline products, like, China's not a big market for us because they don't have those vehicles in the market, and so we have very little sales in driveline. You know, none of our growth strategy is like try and sell our axles into China. That is. We're a small player, and we will always be a small player unless the market changes to our product mix.
Thank you so much for taking my question. Winnie Dong from Deutsche Bank. My first question is on the kind of, I guess, market conditions you're sort of embedding into that five-year growth period. Obviously this year we're seeing a lot of volatility, et cetera. Tying to that, in terms of the cadence of that growth, do you expect that to be more back-end loading, that five-year period? Or is it more of a steady type of growth that we should be looking at?
Yeah. I think in terms of our market expectations. Think about North American light truck production to remain, you know, pretty consistent in our growth or our numbers are generally tied to, you know, to what S&P is saying, you know, around our large platforms. Remember, we're not looking at the whole SAR. We're looking at, you know, a couple of very key programs. You know, even if you look at the North American light truck platform, it's still. It doesn't
Tell the whole story. Our general view is that the market remains relatively consistent. You know, you've got some model changeovers and things that change volume from year to year, but generally speaking, we do see obviously the recovery of the North American commercial vehicle market off of the lows to a more-
Yeah
A normalized position over that time period. That's $350 million of that growth. For the applied technologies aftermarket, it's a ramp in. You know, next year, you know, sales are in our plan only less than $100 million of that. But as you go through, it starts to ramp more obviously on some of the applied technologies. The earlier winners are some of the things like power sports and some of the defense where we're taking off-the-shelf products. You know, the adjacencies on some of the technologies around cooling and high performance, those tend to be a little later in the plan.
Yeah
Obviously we're starting to see some of the recoveries in the CV market today. Again, even on the market share, right, we see those market share gains coming in.
Mm-hmm
Sooner rather than later. It's not all backing.
Gotcha. My follow-up is on EV. You have a slide there that demonstrates the margin profiles.
Yeah
... growing from 4% from last year to a target at 10%, in 2030. Just wanted to understand sort of the drivers of that. If EV at some point sort of comes back, let's just say, right, would you need to go back to another period of investment, or is that largely done and behind us? How would this maybe another wave of investment be different from the last one?
I mean, I think to take first things first, your first question in terms of it's largely contribution margin coming through with the added sales, along with, you know, some additional investment as, you know, as some of the programs get longer in the tooth, we need to invest a little bit more. Generally speaking, it's a moderate amount of contribution coming in. You know, some of our products do carry lower volume and carry fairly strong contribution margins. We do see some of that pricing dissipating as we come over, so there's a bit of a headwind in the-
Mm-hmm
... in the EV side relative to some of the larger high voltage products that we sell today. To answer your question on, hey, if the market were to come back, we've already developed the technologies and the capabilities-
Right
to be able to serve both the CV and the LV market. We wouldn't have to go through another large engineering investment cycle in order to get back there. You know, in terms of like, in terms of capacity on the assembly side, we would be able to make most of these products in the plants that we have within the footprint that we have today. Yes, we'd have tooling and some incremental investment on it, machinery equipment, but that would largely be incremental into the plan. Our general view, though, is if a customer is coming to us today and telling us they're gonna have a program, we're telling them, "Look, you're
They have to pay.
They have to pay the CapEx upfront. We're not gonna go down the road again of build it and they will come.
Right.
I would tell you we're gonna be very, very disciplined around how we think about those programs and what we're willing to accept in terms of the risk. Quite frankly, if that's not something the OEM is really interested in-
We pass.
We'll pass on the program.
Mm-hmm.
Thank you.
Yep.
Oh, Colin?
Oh, great. Colin Langan, Wells Fargo. Just first question is just a clarification. If I go to slide 73, you have additional backlog of $400 million. On slide 44, you have $175 million of EV wins, I assume those are already booked, and then $200 million on slide 48 of the 2029 heavy-duty rev pickup win. Wouldn't that all be then almost $400 million? Wouldn't that all be secured, or are they in different buckets?
The $750 is what we laid out. That includes EV backlog. There's $400 million of EV backlog sitting in the 2028 backlog. The $100 million of secured. If you look at the EV, there's $175 million of additional EV backlog. There are losses on the ICE side that are sitting inside of that net $100, which are not reflected in there because no new programs have come on. The $200 million that we're talking about, that's, you know, in the truck, that's already in that $850 million of secured backlog.
The $800 million. Where's the $850 million?
The $850 million is the $750 million plus the $100 million of secured.
Which said 2029 launch on the slides.
Yeah. The additional backlog goes through 2030.
Okay. Okay.
The first bucket's a three-year look. The extra 100 extends it to five.
Right. The $750 is what we showed last month at when we released earnings.
Okay, I got the $7.50. I'm a little confused how it's lapping over and shrinking, but okay.
Way to think about it is like there's an additional $300 million of high confidence programs that we will be able to talk about here over the next three months-6 months. Inside the $400 million there, in the middle column there's $200 million sitting in there, that is the market share growth on CV, and then an additional $200 million of programs that we are identifying that are a little bit longer term to kind of go after.
Which 400 in the block you're talking?
The 400 in the middle.
The traditional product.
Traditional product. Sorry.
It's actually gonna be my second question. Kind of going to the first question today.
I mean, historically, especially on the heavy truck side, the business is, like, super sticky, particularly in North America. What gives you confidence that you could actually dislodge, you know, $400 million from what is like, it's pretty rare. I can't even remember the last time that business actually switched among a major customer.
I agree with your point, right? It tends to be pretty sticky, and I think, you know, we do see, you know, there's a number of competitors that have combined, we think giving us some opportunities for customers to spread out their buy around some of those products. Also, don't forget, we have. It's not only a driveline business that we own. We own sealing and thermal products that are included in our traditional products as well. I don't know, Byron, if you wanna add anything to that.
Yeah. No, I mean, our customers are looking for alternatives and Dana solutions around several key programs, that's in that bucket there, Colin, and they're also, you know, as they revisit their product portfolio, they're introducing new vehicles that they're gonna add to their fleet, and that's creating opportunities for us to go get as well. Some of it is new platform jump ball opportunities, and others, to Timothy's point, they're looking at their supplier strategy and where they have Dana positioned relative to others and looking at opportunities to have us play a larger role.
Colin, if I can address your market share one on the commercial vehicle, you mentioned that we've been very sticky, right? What you're really seeing out there right now is you've got a couple of the commercial vehicle manufacturers that have been heavily weighted towards one or the other of the driveline suppliers. As the markets have been recovering or when you've gone through other cycles, they've found themselves very constrained on being able to produce trucks and be able to capture market share. So they themselves are balancing their buys. We have, with two of those customers, we have been working very closely to really rebuild those relationships and build that collaboration with them.
We have gotten preferred data book position with one of those manufacturers that puts us in a much better space to be able to go and grab that market share as this market recovers.
Got it. Very helpful. Thank you.
Mm-hmm.
Just behind you.
Great. Thank you. Dan Levy, Barclays. I wanted to just start, first of all. I know a lot of attention on the slide that's behind you here. Timothy, I think you sort of summarized it at the end that of the $2.5 billion of growth, roughly $2 billion of that is in the core products. I just want to understand. I think we just went through the Off-Highway transaction last year, and I think the goal was to vastly simplify the exposures to be maybe more North America focused. When you're looking at all of these growth opportunities that are out there, and I know that you said part of this is market growth or bidding, how much does this expand again, you know, some of the product areas, or is this still focusing very much on the core product set?
You're not necessarily going outside of your swim lane on products, customers, markets, et cetera. It's still a simplified structure today.
Let, let- Seth take that.
No, Seth, I was just gonna say you should.
Very much. When we went through the filtering of these ideas, that was exactly what we didn't wanna do. We didn't wanna move into, you know, putting the man on the moon. We wanted to have things that we're gonna continue to make the products. We can even reuse assets, we can reuse plants, we can use capabilities in order to address some of these new segments. Some of the new products, I mean, they come from existing technologies that, yeah, it's gonna be a new product, but we can make it on the same kinda production equipment, as we go forward.
Yeah.
It was a very intentional part of our strategy that we're applying our technology rather than continuing to expand and blur the lines. 'Cause you're right, I mean, we've gotten very complex to a point, and we've seen a lot of benefits as we've reconsolidated, refocused just in light vehicle markets and commercial vehicle markets.
I'd say the purpose of this slide. This is a slide that we'll update on a periodic basis. As we have a couple big programs that we're pretty close to securing to turn that first dual-colored bar into blue. As we start to win some applied technology business, we'll start to shade in that box, same thing on aftermarket and same thing on the other one. This is not a slide that we're putting up and gonna forget about. We will constantly remind people where this is going.
Great. Thank you. As a follow-up, Byron, earlier in your presentation, I think there was mention that there's a minimum 10% EBITDA margin, I think it was for all-
Yeah
... programs or products. Maybe you can just give us a sense within the portfolio, what percent of the revenue or directionally, you know, how much of it is below that threshold that either needs to be repriced or that you would consider sort of rationalizing?
Yeah, that's a good question. Our focus right now in terms of getting to those margin thresholds is in our sealing and thermal business, which is about an $800 million business. And that business on the OE side is somewhere between break even and 5%. That, you know, fixing that chunk of the revenue is maybe one way you could think about it. Somewhere between $800 billion of business that we've gotta get to those hurdles from, you know, relatively low margins today.
Is that helpful?
Yeah.
Okay.
James Picariello from BNP Paribas. I think it's slide 77 where you talk about $4 billion in operating cash flow, and then you have the pie chart allocation.
Yeah.
48% is earmarked for share buybacks, which would imply about $1.9 billion versus the company's explicit commitment of $1.35 billion. Just wanna understand, depending on the success of this 2030 plan, is that to flex higher and toward that one point?
Yeah, I mean, we can put the slide up if someone's around.
Want somebody's slide?
I mean, I think the answer is, we believe we'll have excess capital that we'll be able to reinvest in the business or return to shareholders depending upon kinda where we're at. You know, if you think about it, we're talking about doing $300 million in capital returns this year, so we do think we're on pace to be able to finish that up sooner than 2030.
Yes, I think we'll have an opportunity, and I think as the team continues to execute the plan and we stay ahead of the challenges, we'll have that opportunity to make that decision in the future as to what we're gonna do with the excess cash flow.
I think if you look at kinda trying to do the math, if we do the $2 billion, and we pay out the $50 million a year of dividend, and we follow this pie chart, we would also have no net debt.
Yeah. Correct.
Which is not gonna be our strategy.
Yeah.
that's kind of the flex you could think about. If we said we wanna be 1.1x , then we're at $1.4 billion-$1.5 billion of EBITDA. That's kind of the missing gap.
Yeah, I mean, we don't have any assumed, you know, reduction in net debt in here. Like, that would be another opportunity you could-
Yeah.
Bring that down if you wanted to.
Sure.
But...
Just hitting on the electrification, you know, component of this growth strategy. Right, doubling sales essentially over the next five years on electrification.
Mm-hmm.
Can you just share what's the approximate split between commercial versus light vehicle-
It's mostly Light Vehicle.
2030 versus
Mostly light vehicle. I mean, it's a few hundred million dollars, but it's generally light vehicle focused. It's probably two-thirds light vehicle.
Yeah.
Maybe-
2/3 of the $575 million.
Maybe, you know, give or take, but yeah, something like that.
Okay. Today, the $565 million in EV sales, that's predominantly commercial vehicle now?
Yes. Well, it's a mix because you got motors, inverters are largely commercial vehicle, but we do have obviously the thermal products business, which is substantial, so which would be in the light vehicle space.
Yeah.
It's a little more balanced today.
Yeah. Maybe just on how do we get to the 10%, I would just remind folks that the current business has been priced on volumes that have not materialized. You look at our backlog, we have volume essentially guarantees, I'll say, in terms of the price will flex with volumes, and that protection we have not had in the past. Anyone else?
Any further questions?
Okay.
All right.
All right. Well, thanks, guys. I'll just a couple slides wrapping up. We kinda went through a lot today fairly quickly, and then just a couple slides sort of closing things out. You know, if you sort of contrast prior Dana to what we're saying today, we were a very diverse company prior to the sale of our Off-Highway business. We're much more focused now on the core light vehicle commercial markets, and again, largely in North America. If you sort of go back in the past, we did have a lot of growth over the last five years, but it was not profitable growth, and it certainly didn't lead to high shareholder returns. We have a much leaner cost structure right now.
Our margins that we're guided to this year, the 10%-10.5%, it's a double versus the last two years. We've gone from 5%- 10.5% this year in two years, and we're saying we're gonna get from 10.5% to 14%-15% over the plan period. Sounds aspirational, I would say, but again, if you look at our margins versus our competition, we still lag where our competition is today, and we've got a higher aftermarket business, a higher percentage of our business is in aftermarket, and a higher percentage of our business is in commercial vehicle.
Our fair share in terms of what our margins ought to be is at least in the range that we're talking about today. We're not. I don't view these as a moonshot. I think, in our presentation, we really strive to show we have very concrete roadmaps to get to where we wanna get to. It's not much pie in the sky. Every strategy doesn't have to deliver at 100% to get there. You know, our internal targets are well in excess of the numbers that we're sharing here today. You know, we wanna continue, but you know, Byron touched on be accountable.
I think as an organization, we've done a nice job putting in aggressive targets out there. There's a healthy level of skepticism, let's just say, a year and a half ago. If you look at the guidance that we gave here for 2026, people are sort of on top of it, and we're putting out numbers that we know we can deliver. That's right, it's not back-end loaded, and when we come up to talk about our 2027 guidance, it's gonna be a path towards the 2030 objectives that we laid out here.
Shareholder value is a major focus for the organization, and because we believe so strongly in what we can do, that's why we are spending so much money on buybacks. I think it's important that we continue to deliver, you know, strong free cash flow, keep a best in sector balance sheet, which we believe will be rewarded through higher multiple on our stock. If you sort of look at the multiples within our space, there's very high correlation to free cash flow generation and multiple, and we have moved, I'll say, from the basement up to the main floor and now we're gonna move from, you know, a nice neighborhood to a much better neighborhood if we can deliver our plan.
In terms of just closing it out, I think we're very well positioned to grow profitably. One of the things I like about our strategy is it's not reliant on one or two things. We have a quiver of growth arrows that we're firing at the bullseye here. Some of them probably aren't gonna work out, but there's lots of other ones that I think can over-deliver the numbers that we have here. You know, some of Seth's adjacent market opportunities, we have RFQs in hand for more than $400 million just in terms of powersport. So we're pretty excited about that we have enough growth opportunities to overcome setbacks as they may arise.
In terms of the margin expansion map, I touched on 60 basis points-100 basis points a year of margin expansion, so you'll see that in 2027 and beyond. Free cash flow is gonna stay in the sort of 4-ish% here this year and next as we ramp up the investment in the margin-enhancing automation opportunities that Chris talked about. Then when we get to 2030, if you sort of factor in, and this assumes we buy back the $2 billion, we get our share count down into that number into the upper 80s, normalize our tax at a 30% rate, we see our EPS in 2030 as being about $8 a share, give or take.
Lastly, we're gonna continue to reinvest in our business, so as Chris identifies more opportunities for us to automate, that will certainly be a use of that surplus capital. We're not gonna let our leverage go down to zero, so upping the buyback is definitely a possibility as we get into a couple of years into this. As I talked about before, we'll grow our dividend in line with the reduction in our share count. With that, I thank everybody for your attendance and interest in Dana. Have a good rest of your day.