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Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Oct 20, 2022

Operator

My name is Shelby, and I will be your conference facilitator this morning. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Danaher Corporation's third quarter 2022 earnings results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session .

If you would like to ask a question during that time, simply press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press the pound key on your telephone keypad. I will now turn the call over to Mr. John Bedford, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Bedford, you may begin your conference.

John Bedford
VP of Investor Relations, Danaher

Thanks, Shelby. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us on the call. With us today are Rainer Blair, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Matt McGrew, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I'd like to point out that our earnings release, the slide presentation supplementing today's call, our third quarter Form 10-Q.

The reconciliations and other information required by SEC Regulation G relating to any non-GAAP financial measures provided during the call, and additional materials are all available on the investor section of our website, www.danaher.com, under the heading Quarterly Earnings. The audio portion of this call will be archived on the investor section of our website later today under the heading Events and Presentations and will remain archived until our next quarterly call. A replay of this call will also be available until November third, 2022.

During the presentation, we will describe certain of the more significant factors that impacted year-over-year performance. The supplemental materials describe additional factors that impacted year-over-year performance. Unless otherwise noted, all references in these remarks and supplemental materials to company-specific financial metrics refer to results from continuing operations and relate to the third quarter of 2022.

All references to period-to-period increases or decreases in financial metrics are year-over-year. We may also describe certain products and devices which have applications submitted and pending for certain regulatory approvals or are available only in certain markets. During the call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements regarding events or developments that we believe or anticipate will or may occur in the future.

These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in our SEC filings. Actual results might differ materially from any forward-looking statements that we make today. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and we do not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements except as required by law. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Rainer.

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

Well, thank you, John, and good morning to all of you. We appreciate you joining us on the call today. Let's jump right in. Our positive momentum continued in the third quarter with 10% core revenue growth and solid earnings and cash flow performance. This strength was based across the portfolio with high single-digit or better core growth in all three reporting segments.

We're particularly pleased with the consistent performance of our base business, which has grown high single digits or better for nine consecutive quarters. Now, these well-rounded results were driven by our team's outstanding execution through a challenging operating environment. They've done a terrific job running the Danaher playbook to proactively reduce structural costs while continuing to accelerate high-impact growth investments. We believe our ability to deliver meaningful innovation and reliably serve customers has contributed to market share gains in many of our businesses.

Now, during the quarter, we also announced our intention to separate our Environmental and Applied Solutions segment to create a publicly traded company. This new company, which we'll refer to as EAS for now, will be well-positioned in the most attractive areas of the water quality and product identification market.

EAS will be comprised of outstanding businesses with strong ESG fundamentals, durable business models, and a very attractive financial profile, averaging mid-single digit core revenue growth over the last five years, with 55% recurring revenue today and an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 25%.

Now, as a standalone company, EAS will have greater opportunities to meaningfully deploy capital towards M&A. Of course, EAS will have the Danaher Business System as its foundation, along with a commitment to continuous improvement that will support the same outstanding results EAS has as a part of Danaher today.

Of course, we look forward to sharing more details here, in the coming months. As for Danaher, this separation will establish us as a more focused science and technology leader committed to innovation and making a profound impact on human health.

We've got a great lineup of leading franchises positioned in highly attractive life sciences and diagnostics end markets, all united by a common set of durable, high recurring revenue business models. We remain focused on strengthening our portfolio and competitive advantage in these areas. We see tremendous opportunities to continue delivering sustainable long-term performance. With that, let's turn to our third quarter results in more detail. Sales were $7.7 billion, and we delivered 10% core revenue growth, including 8.5% core growth in our base business.

Respiratory testing contributed an additional 150 basis points to core revenue growth in the quarter. Geographically, we continue to see strong demand across the developed markets despite current macroeconomic and geopolitical events. North America's core revenue was up high teens, with all three segments delivering double-digit or better core revenue growth.

Core revenue in Western Europe grew high single digits, with customer activity and funding levels remaining healthy. High-growth markets core revenues were up mid-single digits. In China, our teams effectively managed through ongoing COVID-19 headwinds to deliver high single-digit growth in the quarter. Our gross profit margin for the third quarter was 59.8%, and our operating margin was 26.3%. We had 50 basis points of core operating margin expansion, driven in part by disciplined cost management, productivity measures, and price actions.

The operating environment remains dynamic across our global businesses globally, but we experienced fewer supply chain disruptions in the third quarter. Logistics improved as freight costs began to stabilize. We also saw modest improvements in material availability, though certain electronic components remained difficult to procure.

Now despite these challenges, our teams have done an outstanding job taking proactive measures and leveraging the DBS tool set to minimize the impact of supply chain constraints and inflationary pressures. Adjusted diluted net earnings per common share of $2.50 were up 7% versus last year. We also generated $1.7 billion of free cash flow in the quarter and $5.2 billion year to date. Now let's take a look at our results across the portfolio and give you some color on what we're seeing in our end markets today.

In our Life Sciences segment, reported revenue grew 4% and core revenue was up 8%. Strength was broad-based, with most businesses achieving high single-digit or better core revenue growth. In bioprocessing, robust activity levels drove over 20% growth in our non-COVID business at Cytiva and Pall Biotech.

As expected, our customers continued to transition away from COVID-19 vaccine and therapeutic programs and into programs for other modalities. We expect these trends to continue through the fourth quarter, resulting in high single-digit core revenue growth in our bioprocessing business for the full year.

In September, we hosted an investor day at Cytiva to showcase our bioprocessing business and highlighted the tremendous long-term growth opportunities we're positioned for in biologics and genomic medicine. We also announced that we're bringing together Cytiva and Parexel Life Sciences as the biotechnology group.

The combined portfolio has the broadest offering in the industry, with end-to-end solutions across all major therapeutic modalities, from monoclonal antibodies to emerging cell, gene, and mRNA-based therapies. The biotechnology group will have unmatched global scale with the industry's largest commercial team, allowing us to further extend the reach of our best-in-class customer service.

We also believe focused innovation across the joint portfolio will ensure our products and solutions are aligned to best meet customers' needs around quality, yield, and cost. With Parexel Life Sciences and Cytiva joining forces, the biotechnology group is uniquely positioned to help our customers become more efficient and bring more life-saving therapies to market faster. Moving to our Life Sciences instrument businesses, they collectively delivered double-digit base business core revenue growth, led by SCIEX, Leica Microsystems, and Beckman Coulter Life Sciences.

Funding levels remained strong globally, and we saw solid customer demand across most major end markets. We continued our strong pace of innovation in Life Sciences with the introduction of Beckman Coulter's Biomek NGeniuS. The NGeniuS is a cost-effective, easy-to-use sample preparation system that reduces manual transfers and hands-on time in next gen sequencing library construction.

This is a great example of how our investments in innovation are delivering impactful solutions to our customers. Our genomics businesses had another quarter of double-digit core revenue growth, led by strong demand for plasmids, RNA, and next generation sequencing solutions. This quarter marked Aldevron's first anniversary as part of Danaher, and we couldn't be more pleased with the team's performance. Financially, the results speak for themselves.

With more than 30% year-over-year revenue growth since acquisition, the team has done a tremendous job embracing DBS tools and processes to meaningfully reduce lead time and increase capacity. Now, this capacity is certainly supporting customers' needs today, but it's equally important to support Aldevron's long-term growth outlook.

With a view towards the future, we're excited about the opportunities to collaborate across our genomics businesses and create unique solutions to help our customers accelerate the development and commercialization of mRNA and other nucleic acid-based therapies. Moving to our diagnostic segment, reported revenue was up 9.5% and core revenue grew 13.5%, led by nearly 30% core revenue growth at Cepheid. Leica Biosystems grew mid-teens in the quarter driven by strength in core histology and advanced staining.

As customers seek to improve productivity within their labs, we're seeing strong early momentum for Leica's recent innovation, BOND-PRIME, a fully automated advanced staining platform. Beckman Coulter Diagnostics delivered solid results with mid-single-digit core growth despite ongoing COVID-19 headwinds in China.

In molecular diagnostics, core revenue across Cepheid's non-respiratory test menu grew approximately 10%, led by double-digit growth in virology and infectious disease testing. In respiratory testing, global PCR volumes have moderated, but demand is still elevated for symptomatic testing at the point of care where Cepheid is the gold standard. Cepheid's respiratory testing revenue of approximately $875 million exceeded our expectations of approximately $325 million.

The higher prevalence of circulating respiratory viruses, combined with advanced purchases by customers in anticipation of a more severe respiratory season in the Northern Hemisphere, led to both higher volumes and a preference for our four-in-one test for COVID-19, flu A, flu B, and RSV. Now we're starting to see our customers consolidate their point-of-care PCRs testing platforms onto Cepheid's GeneXpert.

The GeneXpert provides significant value to clinicians with a unique combination of fast, accurate lab quality results and a best-in-class workflow. Customers are also increasingly interested in opportunities for broader utilization of Cepheid's leading test menu. Our opportunity funnel for non-respiratory tests has increased significantly this year, and we see opportunities to continue gaining market share moving forward. Moving to our Environmental and Applied Solutions segment. Reported revenue grew 5%, and core revenue was up 10.5%.

Water quality was up mid-teens, and product identification grew low single digits. At product identification, marking and coding was up low single digits, and packaging and color management grew mid-single digits. Videojet was up low single digits, in part due to a difficult year-over-year comparison as the business grew low double digits in Q3 last year.

Now during the quarter, we saw strength in food and beverage as well as the consumer end markets. In water quality, ChemTreat and Hach each grew high teens during the third quarter. Demand for analytical chemistries and consumables remained solid across our major end markets.

Municipal and industrial project activity was broadly consistent with the first half of the year, driving solid equipment growth. Now last week at WEFTEC, the annual wastewater trade show, the water quality team highlighted several solutions that are improving the efficiency and sustainability of the water treatment process.

Hach's ultra-low range chlorine analyzer raises the industry standard to parts per billion chemical detection levels, helping customers extend the membrane life of their treatment systems and reduce maintenance costs. At Trojan, innovative solutions such as TrojanUVSigna and TrojanUV3000Plus reduce environmental impact by treating water with ultraviolet light instead of traditional chemical disinfection methods. Every day, over 1 billion people benefit from water treated by Trojan.

These are just a few examples of how our water quality platform is supporting customers' day-to-day mission-critical water operations and making a positive impact on the world. With that color on what we're seeing in our businesses and end markets, let's now briefly look ahead at expectations for the fourth quarter and the full year. In the fourth quarter, we expect to deliver high single-digit core revenue growth in our base business.

We expect a high single- to low double-digit core revenue growth headwind from COVID-19 testing, resulting in a core revenue growth being flat to down low single digits in the fourth quarter. Additionally, we expect a fourth quarter adjusted operating profit margin of approximately 30%.

Now for the full year 2022, there is no change to our previous guidance of high single-digit core revenue growth in our base business. We now expect high single-digit overall core revenue growth, which is up from our prior expectation of mid-single digits as a result of our strong COVID-19 testing performance in the third quarter.

We continue to expect operating profit fall through of approximately 25% for the full year. To wrap up, we're very pleased with our third quarter results. Our well-rounded performance really is a testament to our team's commitment to innovating and executing in support of our customers.

These results also reinforce Danaher's strength and durability. Our differentiated portfolio is well positioned in attractive end markets with long-term secular growth drivers, and our business models are resilient, with nearly 75% of our revenue today being recurring.

Putting it all together, the strength of our portfolio and balance sheet, combined with our talented team and the power of the proactive application of the Danaher Business System, provides an outstanding foundation for delivering sustainable long-term results. With that, I'll turn it back over to John.

John Bedford
VP of Investor Relations, Danaher

Thanks, Rainer. Shelby, that concludes formal comments, and we're now ready for questions here.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press the star and one on your touch tone phone. You may remove yourself from the queue at any time by pressing the pound key. Once again, that is star and one to ask a question. We will pause for a moment to allow questions to queue. We'll take our first question from Derik De Bruin with Bank of America.

Derik De Bruin
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Bank of America

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the question.

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

Morning, Derik.

Derik De Bruin
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Bank of America

Hey. Obviously, we're, you know, there's a lot of questions on the bioprocessing market, given, you know, one of your competitors in that market was talking about inventory stocking yesterday and, you know, which hit the sector. Can you just sort of elaborate on what you're seeing in a little bit more detail on bioprocessing inventories? Also, you know, we've gotten a question.

You're talking about high single-digit growth for the full year. You know, I think you had commented high single- to double-digit prior quarter. Can you sort of walk us through the dynamics? Are you still looking for, like, $1 billion in COVID vaccines for this year? Just a lot more color on what's going on, given that's gonna be, you know, given how sensitive a topic that is. Thanks.

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

Thanks. Thanks, Derik. Let me get right to that question here. First of all, let's talk about 2022, and I'll certainly speak about the inventory topic here as well. I think it's important to reiterate that overall, we're seeing very strong customer demand in bioprocessing, and we expect to finish 2022 with high single-digit core growth.

Now, that splits up in a number of sections. Let's start with the non-COVID bioprocessing. It's growing, you know, well over 20%, and we continue to see that. You know, the underlying fundamentals here are the funding is there, the clinical trials continue to progress, the pipeline is strong. We're seeing products move into commercial production from phase 3. This has really accelerated across all modalities.

Sure, monoclonal antibodies, but yes, we're even seeing cell and gene therapy starting to gain their approvals. Additionally, pricing is above historical levels, which is driving some incremental growth, if you will, on top of the underlying demand in the non-COVID areas. Now, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, customers do continue to move away from COVID-related projects.

I don't think that's a surprise to any of us. That's something that we have been speaking about for some time. In fact, we can confirm that is happening. I think it also reconciles with what we're seeing in the marketplace. We're seeing that, you know, vaccine uptake is relatively slow. People are unsure if the current vaccine inventories will address the newest variants.

There's a bit of uncertainty there, I think, in the public as to where we go from a vaccine perspective, and that reflects naturally in what we have seen here with customers starting to, you know, move to the other modalities and drive the projects that they've had on hold forward. For us, that manifests here in for the full year that we see $800 million of COVID revenues in bioprocessing, as opposed to the $1 billion that we had been talking about previously.

We do see customers moving away from these COVID projects and driving their energies, their efforts, and their financial resources into the other projects. That helps explain why we see the larger part of the business growing at well over 20%.

Now, we are not seeing significant stocking, but we do see pockets of stocking. Particularly there where there were large COVID-related either therapeutic or vaccine programs. Those players that heavily invested in large programs here are those players that in fact have higher inventory than is normally the case.

Having said that, those large players also are those which are best positioned to redeploy those inventories to other projects. We do expect a inventory burndown with those players here in the coming quarters. That's the inventory situation there, Derik. Then as it relates to some of the other points here, I think we continue to be, and I just wanna reaffirm the high single-digit growth. We're high single digit here year to date, and that's how we see ourselves in bioprocessing, concluding the year.

Derik De Bruin
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Bank of America

Got it. The order book, the growth in the order book for bioprocessing on the non-COVID growth there?

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

Sure, Derik. For Q3, our orders are down over 20%, as expected. I think that's a number which bears some commentary and context. First of all, we're coming off of order comps that are well in excess of 50% in the prior year. It's important to take, in order to be able to, rationalize these numbers that sometimes are viewed in isolation with the right context.

The three-year order stack is over 20%. I think something that is perhaps not as well known and that bears some conversation is we and many others have meaningfully reduced our lead time. We've done that through capacity investments. We've done that through productivity investments. We've been able to do that because the supply chain has become more secure.

That's had a pretty significant impact on the order placement cadence of our customers. Just to mention an example here, if lead times go from 52 weeks, which has been the case in some product categories in the marketplace, to 12 weeks, customers fundamentally change their order patterns. To give you a sense of that.

If a customer wanted to order over time four bioreactors, they would order all four bioreactors at once if there's a 52-week lead time. If it's a 12-week lead time, they would order one bioreactor and then follow up with other orders in the future. What we're seeing right now is really the normalization of the marketplace coming from a red-hot pandemic-fueled time of constraint and long lead times where orders ramped up significantly.

Order rates ramped up significantly due to the supply chain now normalizing, and customers adjusting their order cadence. Yes, of course, the COVID volumes are down. That's expected. We've been talking about that. We also see the strength of the non-COVID market, and keep in mind, that's a much larger market, and currently it is growing, you know, at well over 20% as there's a backlog to be burned down there because previously COVID had been prioritized. The orders were negative year-over-year, but not unexpectedly and could be seen in the context of a market that is now readjusting.

Matt McGrew
EVP and CFO, Danaher

Derek, you'd asked about the non-COVID as well.

Derik De Bruin
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Bank of America

Yeah.

Matt McGrew
EVP and CFO, Danaher

If you think about the book to bill there in the quarter, it was essentially 1.0.

Derik De Bruin
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Bank of America

Essentially, I'm sorry, what?

Matt McGrew
EVP and CFO, Danaher

Essentially 1.0.

Derik De Bruin
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Bank of America

Okay. Got it. Thank you. Just one final question. Do you still expect to take significant price across the portfolio next year?

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

We continue to think about price as a lever for us, and we think that lever is available to us next year as well. We have taken the necessary steps to do that. We're over 400 basis points here in the quarter. That's up from 300 basis points in the first half of the year. We expect the fourth quarter to be similar, and we're gonna try and keep that momentum going here in the new year as well.

Matt McGrew
EVP and CFO, Danaher

That commentary is overall, Derik, but I don't think that would be any different for bioprocessing. Same numbers.

Derik De Bruin
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Bank of America

Thank you.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Scott Davis with Melius Research.

Scott Davis
Chairman, CEO, and Founding Partner, Melius Research

Hey, good morning, guys.

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

Morning, Scott.

Matt McGrew
EVP and CFO, Danaher

Hey, Scott.

Scott Davis
Chairman, CEO, and Founding Partner, Melius Research

Just to go back a little bit to Cepheid. Are there costs? I would imagine that cost was not a main focus when you were supplying extreme demand for the last couple of years. Are there costs or is there a playbook where costs can come out of the business and give you a little bit of a tailwind on the margin side while growth kind of stabilizes?

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

We have, as you suggested, invested significantly in order to be able to supply the demand here during the pandemic. Watch very carefully where our capacity needs to be. One, to of course serve the needs of the pandemic, but also to fuel the growth in our non-COVID testing business. That continues to grow very well here.

You saw the very strong growth we had in COVID, but not to be underestimated, the very nice 10% growth in non-COVID off of a very strong comp in the prior year. Capacity for us is an area of great focus, and we're able to adjust that capacity up and downward, both in terms of, you know, units of capacity, but also cost, as we need. That is a relatively flexible lever for us, and we'll continue to adjust that lever up or down, both from a capacity perspective as well as a cost perspective as required.

Scott Davis
Chairman, CEO, and Founding Partner, Melius Research

That's helpful. If we can go a little bit bigger picture. How, Rainer, when you think about the M&A funnel, you know, how wide is the lens? You know, or you know, you guys obviously have a lot of big focus on cell and gene therapies and such, but when you think about your lens today versus perhaps where it was even when you started in the role, Rainer, I mean, is it as wide, you know, and kind of broadly in different healthcare, you know, areas, or is it more narrow towards more cell and gene therapy? That's just kind of what I'm asking.

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

I would characterize our lens as broad, and not limited to cell and gene therapy. We wanna have a profound impact on human health, Scott. We've talked about that here now for some time, and that allows us a very large space in order to identify, you know, investment opportunities, capital deployment opportunities. As such, our funnel is wide and deep, and very active, as always.

Scott Davis
Chairman, CEO, and Founding Partner, Melius Research

Helpful. I'll pass it on. Thank you guys, and best of luck.

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Vijay Kumar with Evercore ISI.

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

Good morning, Vijay.

Vijay Kumar
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Morning, Rainer, and congratulations on a good steady print here this morning. Just maybe back to on the vaccine question, appreciate all the color. I know, you know, given that we don't have the order numbers, I know what you're, you know, what you imply by the lead times coming down.

Just maybe to put a finer point on that, is your outlook for bioprocessing, including vaccines, I think Danaher expected high singles for 2023. Has that changed? I think, you know, prior expectation was half a billion dollars of vaccine revenue for next year. Has that changed?

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

Vijay, as you can imagine, we're very focused on delivering the fourth quarter here and the full year. You know, as we think about 2023, and I say that because, you know, there's a lot of data points to collect here in the fourth quarter as well in such a dynamic environment.

As we think about the bioprocessing business for 2023, we still think that there's room for $500 million of COVID opportunity in order to support the needs of the population, the variants, to replenish expired sell-by dates and all the things that you can think about. Of course, that's a number that we watch very closely.

More importantly, you know, we think that the non-COVID business, which of course will again proportionately be a much larger part of the business, will continue to be very robust. Funding levels are there. The number of modalities that continue to grow in the pipeline is broad. Our own project activity in early, mid, and late stage is very strong. We do not have a different view on 2023 for bioprocessing today. Of course it's a fluid situation, and we continue to watch all of that. We'll update in January when we speak again.

Vijay Kumar
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

That's helpful, Rainer. Just to sort of clarify, any change here, that sensitivity would be on the vaccine side, but not on the base, correct?

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

That's correct. That's the way we see it, for sure today. Recall I mentioned just a minute ago to Derek that, you know, in 2022, we were expecting $1 billion of COVID vaccine and therapeutic revenue. We've taken that down to $800 million. It is, of course, offset by the non-COVID business so that we deliver high single-digit% here in 2023 for bioprocessing. Looking forward to 2023, we would see that going from $800 million to $500 million.

Vijay Kumar
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Appreciate the color, Rainer. Matt, one quick one for you. Based on current FX rates, and I think, you know, your assumptions on pricing for next year, how should we think about incremental margins for 2023?

Matt McGrew
EVP and CFO, Danaher

For 23?

Vijay Kumar
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Yeah.

Matt McGrew
EVP and CFO, Danaher

Can I go ahead and ask that we get through Q4 here and see where it is. If I had to guess on the FX margins today, I would've been wrong a quarter ago and wrong a quarter before that. We'll give you a full update on 2023. I mean, I think you've seen where the margins have gone to. You know that we're gonna have a-

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

FX headwind next year on the top line of, you know, probably call it $800 million. You can probably start there. I would say that, you know, the flow-through on that is probably going to be the pretty typical, you know, 35%-40% flow-through.

Now it could be a little bit better or worse, depending on where that revenue actually comes in from a mix perspective, but that's probably the best I can give you now, you know, what we know the rates are, but, you know, from a flow margin perspective, probably have to wait until we get a little bit closer and do our guide in 2023.

Vijay Kumar
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Understood. Thanks, guys.

Moderator

We'll take our next question from Dan Brennan with Cowen and Company.

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

Morning, Dan.

Dan Brennan
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Cowen and Company

Great. Thanks for the questions. If I may just, Rainer, I know on the last call, and it was already addressed in some of the bioprocess information, but when you look more broadly, there's obviously a lot of mixed signals on the, you know, on the macro.

Last call you had suggested, you know, all-in organic mid-single, and if you factor in the COVID roll-off, low single digits. Like, any updated thinking on how you think about that? I know you've already addressed the bioprocess side, but just wondering for the other parts of the business, kind of how those are playing out right now.

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

Thanks, Dan. I think we are still in that ZIP code here, specifically, if we think about our base business without testing, so our business without COVID testing. For 2023, we still see that as mid-single-digit+. And you know, of course, we're watching.

There's a lot of headlines in Western Europe and emerging markets and, you know, but to date, our business momentum does not indicate, you know, any dramatic slowdown here. We think mid-single-digit+ from today's point of view, for the base business is the right way to think about it. You know, as we go forward here, and Matt mentioned this, of course, we're looking at all the data points daily here, and then in January, we'll update you again.

From today's perspective, mid-single-digit plus for the base business. As it relates to COVID testing, you know, we do still anticipate that step down. The experts that we speak with, our customers, still think that, you know, COVID is endemic by the end of 2023, beginning of 2024.

And that we'll step down there from, you know, where we've been here, close to 16 million tests to about 30 million tests and/or the $1.2 billion roughly of COVID revenue. Lastly, I'll say, you know, the FX situation is very dynamic. We've been talking about that, and I think Matt covered that as well.

Dan Brennan
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Cowen and Company

Great. Thanks, Rainer. Then just maybe one more follow-up. Don't want to, you know, kind of continue to readdress bioprocess, but I'm just wondering. You talked about bringing lead times dramatically, which suggests that customers aren't going to need to order as far in advance, right? Because, you know, you've got them down significantly.

You know, the peer yesterday talked about inventories at 12 months versus six months. I know you addressed inventories in one of the prior questions, but can you just speak to it just one more time? I apologize, just on the base business. I believe you've done a better job from prior conversations about maybe managing and kind of avoiding some double ordering.

Just kind of what do you see broadly on the inventory side for your base business, and kind of how does that kind of impact your outlook for the base bioproduction business as we look forward to 2023? Thank you.

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

Sure. We have been, as a result of the pandemic, even closer than traditionally working with our customers to understand their production plans and to ensure that, you know, they are not overstocking at the expense of others, who would need the product in what was a time of constraint here, for the last 18, 20 months.

As a result of that, we feel as though we are, you know, well positioned to understand the inventory situation. We do regular surveys with our customers. As a result of that, we don't believe that there is a general overstocking in the market. Having said that, we do think there are pockets where inventories are high, and those are based on, you know, customers ultimately changing their production plans. In other words, canceling, you know, orders specifically for COVID.

The large COVID players, whether that be for vaccine production or whether that be for therapeutics production, they have larger inventories, and those will likely exceed six months of inventory. But I think it's important to note that those large players have many programs, and they're able to redeploy that inventory.

This in most cases, you know, these are not tailor-made solutions for any specific molecule and can be redirected and burned down using, you know, in the use for other modalities or other programs of the same modality. We do see that the market is currently, you know, resetting itself from, as I mentioned, a red-hot pandemic era of constraint with long lead times to one where lead times and supply chain disruptions are starting to normalize.

Add to that the cancellation of, you know, some COVID vaccine or therapeutic plans just because the uptake hasn't been the same or the variants have rendered them, you know, not usable for that application. We are confident that the strength of this market and its fundamentals remain very, very strong.

Biologics in all the modalities that we've talked about are very under-penetrated in the market, and it is a matter of, you know, getting the penetration up, launching the new products in the pipeline that will continue to drive the growth of this market despite the reset that we see going on in the supply chain.

Dan Brennan
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Cowen and Company

Great. Thank you.

Moderator

We'll take our next question from Dan Leonard with Credit Suisse.

Dan Leonard
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Thank you. My first question.

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

Hi, Dan.

Dan Leonard
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Rainer, hello. Good morning. I was hoping you could elaborate on trends in China across your different opcos. I think you said growth was high single digits in total, but flagged some weakness in diagnostics. Just wondering if you could offer more color by opco. Thank you.

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

Sure. As you just said, just to level set, you see high single-digit growth here in China, both for Q3, and we anticipate a similar level in Q4, and that's really a broad-based strength there. Let me start with diagnostics, where we did see patient volumes impacted by these rolling shutdowns, so this zero-COVID-19 policy shutdown that you're likely reading about in China.

That affected patient volumes and, you know, think of those as being 90%-95% of what they were in 2021. You know, we're working through those and continue to see China as really, you know, a very, very strong market. Now lastly, the rest of our business continues to be very, very strong.

As you think about life science instruments, EAS, the other diagnostics companies, we continue to see robust demand there. As patient volumes normalize, which we expect to happen, you know, sometime in the next year, we're confident that China continues to be, you know, a really strong growth lever here for the future.

Matt McGrew
EVP and CFO, Danaher

Dan, just to give you some context, I mean, life sciences and EAS were both up high single digits in the quarter. You know, diagnostics, while it did struggle a little on the patient volumes, I mean, it was still up mid-single digits.

Dan Leonard
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Appreciate that color. Matt, just a quick follow-up. Can you talk about the impact of higher interest rates on the business? Do they change at all how you're managing the balance sheet or your capital allocation priorities?

Matt McGrew
EVP and CFO, Danaher

I don't think so. From a balance sheet perspective, I mean, we've got no variable, you know, sort of debt, so that doesn't really impact us. I'm trying to think. I mean, it might have, you know, spots here or there from things like currency swaps that we've done and interest income, but I mean those are pretty minor. I mean, I don't think we think of capital allocation in a different way. I mean, I think we still sort of go through the same processes from an M&A perspective and a return perspective, and interest has always been a component of that.

I don't think it really changes all that much on how we're thinking about, you know, either a running the business, the balance sheet, given where we're at on fixed, you know, sort of mostly fixed debt here. I don't think it really impacts us on our thinking about, you know, doing something different than what we do, which is allocate capital towards M&A largely.

Dan Leonard
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Thanks for all that color.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Luke Sergott with Barclays.

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

Morning, Luke.

Dan Leonard
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Morning, guys. Thank you again for the question. I'm gonna talk about the instrument growth. It looks like another big quarter for SCIEX and LMS. This is following very strong first half of the year. Can you just give us a sense of where all the demand's coming from? Is this like new facility build-outs or are these from upgrades? How to think about this from a comp perspective, how you guys are thinking about it for next year.

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

Just to level set, our life science instrument business grew, you know, low double digits in Q3. As you pointed out, this was really led by Leica Microsystems, SCIEX, Beckman Coulter Life Sciences with, you know, some very strong results. I think the strength of that comes from, you know, two areas.

The first is the end markets continue to be very strong. Especially pharma, CROs, and academic research continues to be well-funded, and we're seeing strong buying behavior there, especially towards instruments that, you know, provide the necessary answers here in the research. That's really the newest generation of instruments.

That brings me really to the second pillar of the strength that we've seen there, which is our continued innovation performance there with all of the operating companies really leaning in and launching leading edge, really pushing science further instruments. I'll give you some examples. At SCIEX, the ZenoTOF 7600 and the Triple Quad 7500.

At Leica Microsystems, you have the THUNDER wide-field imaging system, and we talked about the Mica launch, which is, you know, doing extraordinarily well. Then we just talked about the Biomek NGeniuS launch here at Beckman Coulter Life Sciences. We're really seeing strength from a funding perspective, and we believe that on top of that, we're outperforming because of the innovation strength that we've shown here, launching a number of great solutions.

Now, from a comp perspective, you know, we really do think that the strength in the market sustains. We expect that to be the case in the fourth quarter. In 2023, like I said, we'll talk about that more in January. We don't have reason to believe here that, you know, this will be significantly different.

Luke Sergott
Director of Healthcare Equity Research, Barclays

All right. That's helpful. When you're thinking about, well, you called out the supply chain, right? Things are starting to get better. Can you talk about where you're seeing the biggest relief in your end markets or businesses, and where you're still seeing things constrained and not getting better?

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

Sure. I think the first place where you're starting to see some of the pressure dissipate is in the logistics area. Logistics capacities have ramped. We're starting to see greater availability. We're also starting to see you know freight rates come down, specifically if you think of container freight.

Those in particular have come down quite significantly, and that you know of course is helpful with the global businesses that we have. At the same time, you know, we do see continued pressure on a more limited set of electronic components. With the Danaher Business System pallet, we've been able to really knock down 80% of the issues there, and I think with that able to continue to take share because of the availability of our solutions.

With 20%, you know, we're still in countermeasure mode. I would say that number continues to get smaller every day. But there's still on the electronic component side, you know, some tightness here. Then lastly, you know, I would just say what is still the same is, you know, labor continues to be tight. That is the case practically everywhere we operate. That's a constraint that we would expect to see get better here over the, you know, over the next 12-18 months, but currently still see that as an area to watch out for.

Luke Sergott
Director of Healthcare Equity Research, Barclays

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

We'll take our last question from Patrick Donnelly with Citi.

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

Morning, Patrick.

Patrick Donnelly
Managing Director of Equity Research, Citi

Hey, guys. Appreciate it. Hey, Rainer, how are you? Thanks for fitting me in. Maybe just one. You touched on China, but maybe on Europe, you know, a lot of macro concerns kinda popped up their heads there over the last couple quarters. Can you just talk about what you're seeing again across the different opcos there?

Any change in terms of your expectations or any elevated concerns as we work our way even into 2023 with some of the kind of power rationing and things that are happening there? Maybe just your exposure, any customer conversations, you know, how you're feeling in that region.

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

Well, starting with Q3 here, just to level set, we had high single-digit growth in Western Europe, and we would expect that to be comparable here going into the quarter. Our funnels continue to be strong. You know, I would say that we're starting to see, you know, deal velocity slow a little bit. It is clear that people are starting to think about where they're going to invest their cash.

At least for Q3 and Q4, we're still seeing robust demand and robust funding. Having said that, in view of everything we read in the news, as do you, we continue to watch that very closely, to see whether that sustains going forward into 2023. Of course, we're gonna talk to you about that again in January.

Now, as it relates to our own exposure, specifically as it relates to energy, you know, we continue, for many reasons, to take a very close look at our energy consumption, so also from a sustainability perspective. Now particularly, this becomes an area of focus for Europe. In fact, we do not have a lot of heavy manufacturing, so energy-intensive manufacturing in Europe.

It's mostly light assembly. We have taken the measures to ensure energy supply continuity through the appropriate backup systems. In the event of, you know, if you will, fuel rationing, whether that's gas or oil or otherwise, we also have contingency plans there to ensure that we're able to reduce our demand but still supply mission-critical capabilities, including manufacturing, should that become the case.

It's something that we're closely focused on. Too, we've taken measures in order to ensure that we have supply and can provide supply continuity. Then lastly, we also have the contingency plans should the situation deteriorate.

Patrick Donnelly
Managing Director of Equity Research, Citi

Patrick, this is Matt. We did a kind of bottoms-up analysis plant by plant, you know, company by company, even factoring in higher costs that we, you know, might see here over the winter and into next year. I mean, this is a very, very manageable number. It's just not a big number.

Okay. Yeah, that's good to hear. Then maybe just a follow-up on Luke's instrument question. I guess just kind of wondering in terms of the visibility you guys have. You know, I know the backlog's been elevated. Order growth has been really strong, particularly on SCIEX.

There's kind of this. Is there a pull-forward, is there not? Maybe just talk a little bit about, again, the visibility you have, what the backlog looks like currently, and just how durable some of that instrument strength is. It's been elevated for a while now, so just trying to get a handle on the comfort level of the strength there. Thank you.

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

As you suggest, the backlog is elevated. That is due to two factors. The strong demand that I referenced earlier that's really broad-based, you know, pharma, academic, and so forth. Also, because, you know, there has been, over the last 18 months, some supply constraints around electronic components. We see demand remaining strong across the board for all these research applications that I referenced. As a result of that, we also see that in our order rates and backlog position, and not just here for Q4, but also going into 2023.

Patrick Donnelly
Managing Director of Equity Research, Citi

Great. Thank you guys.

Operator

It appears that we have no further questions at this time. I will turn the program back over to our presenters for any additional or closing remarks.

John Bedford
VP of Investor Relations, Danaher

Thanks, Shelby. We're around all day for questions and follow-ups. Have a good rest of the day.

Rainer Blair
President and CEO, Danaher

Thanks, everyone.

Operator

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

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