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Earnings Call: Q4 2017

Nov 9, 2017

Speaker 1

Welcome to The Walt Disney Company Fiscal Full Year and Q4 2017 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Victoria, and I'll be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode and later we will conduct a question and answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded. And I will now turn the call over to Lowell Singer, Senior VP of Investor Relations.

Lowell, you may begin.

Speaker 2

Good afternoon, and welcome to

Speaker 3

The Walt Disney Company's 4th quarter 2017 earnings call. Our press release was issued about 25 minutes ago and is available on our website at www.disney.com/investors. Today's call is also being webcast, and a copy of the webcast and a transcript will also be available on our website. Joining me for today's call are Bob Iger, Disney's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Christine McCarthy, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Christine will lead off, followed by Bob, and then we'll be happy to take your questions.

So with that, let me turn the call over to Christine to get started.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Lowell, and good afternoon, everyone. Excluding certain items affecting comparability, earnings per share were $1.07 for the 4th quarter and $5.70 for the full year. Our fiscal 2017 results came in roughly in line with last year, which is consistent with the guidance we provided in early September, although they were adversely affected by 3 notable items. 1st, the impact of Hurricane Irma on our Parks business second, the impact of canceling the animated film Gigantic and third, the impact at BAMTech of a valuation adjustment to sports programming rights that were prepaid prior to the acquisition. In aggregate, these three items reduced 4th quarter and full year segment operating income by about $275,000,000 or approximately $0.11 in earnings per share.

At Parks and Resorts, operating income was up 7% in the quarter due to an increase at our international operations, partially offset by lower operating income at our domestic operations. The impact of Hurricane Irma, which I'll discuss in more detail in a moment, adversely affected total segment operating income by 14 percentage points. Results at our international operations continued to improve led by growth at Disneyland Paris and Shanghai Disney Resort. Disneyland Paris benefited from the resort's 25th anniversary celebration and a more favorable tourism environment, which drove higher attendance, guest spending and hotel occupancy. Shanghai Disney's operating income growth was due to higher attendance and to a lesser extent, lower marketing costs compared to the Q4 last year.

I'm pleased to note that Shanghai Disney Resort generated positive operating income during its 1st full fiscal year of operations, which comfortably surpassed our expectations of breakeven for its 1st year. At our domestic operations, operating income was 6% below prior year due to lower results at Walt Disney World, which were adversely impacted by Hurricane Irma, partially offset by growth at Disney Cruise Line, Disneyland Resort and Disney Vacation Club. Hurricane Irma disrupted our operations in Florida, forcing the closure of Walt Disney World Parks for 2 days and the cancellation of 3 Disney Cruise Line itineraries and the shortening of 2 others. We estimate the aggregate impact of the hurricane was about $100,000,000 in operating income or about a 16 percentage point adverse impact to year over year growth at our domestic operations. Operating margins at our domestic operations were down 170 basis points compared to Q4 last year and we estimate they were adversely impacted by about 2 20 basis points due to the hurricane.

Attendance at our domestic parks was up 2% in the quarter, reflecting favorable guest response to new attractions, particularly Avatar Flight of Passage at Disney's Animal Kingdom and Guardians of the Galaxy: Mission Breakout at Disney California Adventure and the unfavorable impact of the hurricanes on Walter and the Wilder tent. We estimate the hurricane had an adverse impact on the year over year change in domestic parks attendance of about 3 percentage points. Per capita spending was comparable to prior year. Per room spending at our domestic hotels was up 4% and occupancy was down 3 percentage points to 84%. So far this quarter, domestic resort reservations are pacing down 1% compared to prior year and reflect reduced room inventory due to conversions and ongoing room refurbishments, while booked rates are up 9%.

At Media Networks, lower operating income in the 4th quarter was a result of lower equity income and a decline at Broadcasting, while cable operating income was comparable to prior year. Equity income was lower in the quarter due to higher losses from our investments in BAMTech and Hulu and lower income at A&E Television Networks. With the closing of our BAMTech acquisition on September 25, BAMTech's results will now be consolidated within our cable networks business. At broadcasting, double digit growth in affiliate revenue and lower programming expenses were more than offset by lower advertising revenue and a decrease in operating income from program sales. The year over year decline in advertising revenue reflects lower impressions at the ABC network, lower political advertising at our owned stations and the absence of the Emmy Awards, partially offset by higher network rates.

Quarter to date, prime time scatter pricing at the ABC network is running 34% above upfront levels. As I mentioned earlier, Q4 cable results were roughly comparable to the prior year. At ESPN, growth in affiliate revenue was offset by higher programming costs and lower advertising revenue. Higher spending on programming was primarily driven by a contractual rate increase for the NFL. Ad revenue at ESPN was down low single digits in the quarter as higher rates were more than offset by a decrease in impressions.

So far this quarter, ESPN's cash ad sales are pacing down due in part to the timing of the college football semifinals and the impact of more game windows on other linear television networks. Like last year, ESPN will air 3 of the New Year's 6 bowl games during the Q1. However, this year, the 2 semifinal games will air during the Q2, whereas they aired during the Q1 last year. We remain very confident in the value of ESPN's programming, in particular, live must see exclusive events like college football playoffs and an ESPN's ability to reach key audiences that advertisers covet. Total Media Networks affiliate revenue was up 4% in the quarter due to growth at both cable and broadcasting.

The increase in affiliate revenue was driven by 7 points of growth due to higher rates, partially offset by about a 3 point decline due to a decrease in subscribers. We completed the renewal of a distribution agreement with Altice, which demonstrates the tremendous value of our network and positions us well as we head into future negotiations. By the end of 2019, we expect to have new agreements in place covering about 50% of our subscriber base. At the studio, results in the 4th quarter reflect higher film cost impairments, lower operating income from television distribution driven by the sale of Star Wars Classic titles in Q4 last year and lower revenue share from consumer products. Operating income in our theatrical and home entertainment businesses was roughly comparable to the prior year.

At Consumer Products and Interactive Media, segment operating income was lower in the quarter due to a decrease in our merchandise licensing business. While we saw nice growth in the sale of Cars and Spider Man merchandise during the Q4, the growth was more than offset by strong sales of Star Wars, Frozen and Finding Dory merchandise in Q4 last year. During the Q4, we repurchased 33,600,000 shares for $3,400,000,000 And for the full year, we repurchased 89,500,000 shares for $9,400,000,000 So far this quarter, we've repurchased 6,500,000 shares for approximately $650,000,000 With fiscal 2017 now behind us, we are excited for the opportunities that lie ahead for our company, which Bob will discuss momentarily. As we look at fiscal 2018 specifically, our earnings growth will be suppressed somewhat by a couple of factors. First, the consolidation of BAMTech and its ongoing investment in the business will adversely impact cable operating income by about $130,000,000 compared to last year.

This will affect our cable results for the 1st 3 quarters of the year with roughly half of this BAMTech related impact expected in Q1. We expect cable expenses to be up high single digits for the year, driven by the consolidation of BAMTech. However, excluding the impact of BAMTech, we expect underlying table expenses to be up low single digits. 2nd, we expect our share of losses from our equity investment in Hulu to increase by more than $100,000,000 for the year, driven by Hulu's investment in its digital MVPD service and higher content spending. Given the timing of these investments, we expect about $70,000,000 of that increase in equity loans in the Q1.

At Consumer Products, a timing issue related to the recognition of minimum guarantee shortfall revenue will cause about $60,000,000 in operating income to shift from Q1 into Q2. The timing issue stems from the fact that these contracts are measured at month end and our fiscal Q1 ends on December 30 this year, whereas it ended on December 31 last year. And finally, we will continue to invest in our businesses in 2018, particularly at Parks and Resorts, where we are building 2 Star Wars lands. We expect these investments among others to drive fiscal 2018 consolidated CapEx higher by about $1,000,000,000 We continue to see attractive opportunities to deploy capital in a balanced way, whether it's through investment in our parks and resorts business, in support of our direct to consumer strategy or by returning capital to our shareholders. We have this flexibility because of our strong balance sheet.

For fiscal 2018, we expect to repurchase $6,000,000,000 of stock, which is close to what we've repurchased on average over the past 5 years. And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Bob.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Christine, and good afternoon, everyone. I'd like to take you through our priorities in fiscal 2018 to frame up the New Year, starting with our direct to consumer initiatives. We believe creating a direct to consumer relationship is vital to the future of our media businesses and it's our highest priority this year. Our decision to acquire control of BAMTech enables us to launch robust DTC offerings and immediately provides us the tools we need to stream video at scale, to acquire and retain customers, to greatly enhance our advertising opportunities on digital platforms and to use consumer data to provide a better user experience, while giving us the ability to grow revenue and increase the effectiveness of our digital marketing efforts. Our first DTC product will be our ESPN branded sports service, which will be called ESPN Plus.

Launching in the spring, the product will be accessible through a new and fully redesigned ESPN app, which will allow users to access sports scores and highlights, stream our channels on an authenticated basis and subscribe to ESPN plus for additional sports coverage, including thousands of live sporting events. This one app experience will be a one of a kind product, offering sports fans far more than they can get on any other app, website or channel and immediately propelling ESPN in a new direction. We will demonstrate this app in early 2018 and also detail pricing and other elements to provide some perspective on the potential this represents to our company. Additionally, we're leveraging BAMTech to launch a Disney branded DTC service in the latter part of 2019, streaming the latest Disney, Pixar, Marvel and Star Wars feature films in the 1st pay window. Our studio will also produce 4 or 5 feature films a year exclusively for this service.

We're also planning to produce a number of original series for the new service and we're already developing a Star Wars live action series, a series based on our popular Pixar Monsters franchise, High School Musical series and a series for Marvel Television, along with a rich array of other content including new movies from our Disney Channel creative team as well as a variety of short form films and features from across our company. The service will also offer thousands of hours of Disney film and TV library product. In the coming months, we'll share more specifics about content development, launch plans and investment levels. Our strategic acquisitions have been a key driver of the historic achievements and performance we've achieved over the last decade. We believe BAMTech is another game changing acquisition and we're confident in our ability to generate maximum value from it.

The acquisition of Marvel helped drive our studio's performance since 2009. The movies we've released in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to date have delivered an average global box office of more than $840,000,000 each. We have 4 new Marvel movies in fiscal 2018 starting with Thor: Ragnarok, which has already topped $500,000,000 in worldwide box office since it premiered 2 weeks ago. To put this early performance into perspective, the box office total for the entire run of our first Thor movie in 2011

Speaker 3

was $449,000,000

Speaker 2

Thor: Ragnarok is also one of the best reviewed Marvel movies to date. We're very excited about Marvel's next great movie Black Panther, which opens next February and we're bringing the Avengers back in May with the release of Infinity War. Our final Marvel movie of the year Ant Man and the Wasp will be in theaters next July. As you know, our acquisition of Pixar effectively revitalized our entire animation business, which is essential to the health of our company. Since that acquisition, the average global box office for our animated movies has risen to more than $665,000,000 and we've captured 9 of the 10 Oscars awarded for feature animation.

We released 2 new movies from Pixar in fiscal 2018. We're thrilled with the early reaction to Coco, which opens at Thanksgiving, and we're also looking forward to the summer release of The Incredibles 2. We had big ambitions for the Star Wars franchise when we acquired Lucasfilm 5 years ago and we're already exceeding our expectations. The Force Awakens and Rogue 1 alone delivered more than $3,000,000,000 at the box office, revealing the tremendous enduring appeal of this franchise and establishing a strong foundation for the future. We're thrilled to have 2 new Star Wars movies in theaters during this fiscal year.

The Last Jedi opened December 15th. Ticket presales are strong and the excitement will only intensify as we get closer to the release date. And we just wrapped production on Solo, our 2nd standalone Star Wars movie. It's essentially the Han Solo origin story and given the huge popularity and global affection for this iconic character, we expect a lot of interest and enthusiasm when it opens over Memorial Day weekend. We've got more great Star Wars movies already planned for years to come.

In addition to the 2019 release of Episode IX, we're very happy to announce that we've just closed a deal with Rian Johnson, the Director of The Last Jedi to develop a brand new Star Wars trilogy. We continue to make significant investments required to drive long term growth across our entire company. In our parks and resorts, for example, we've commissioned 3 spectacular new cruise ships, which will all be completed between 20212023. We're nearing completion on Toy Story Lands in Shanghai and Orlando, both of which will open by next summer. And major construction continues on our Star Wars lands in Disneyland and Walt Disney World, which are on schedule to open in 2019.

We're also adding new attractions and hotels in our resorts around the world, along with cutting edge technology to enhance the guest experience. We remain optimistic about our future in part because quality truly does matter and the quality of our content, our products and our services sets Disney apart. No other company in entertainment today is better equipped to meet the challenges of a changing world or better positioned for continued growth, thanks to our collection of brands, our strong franchises and our unique ability to leverage IP across our entire company to maximize value and create new opportunities. We'll continue to invest for the future and take the smart risks required to keep moving forward. I'm now happy to turn the call over to Lo and then Christine and I will be happy to take your questions.

Lo?

Speaker 3

Okay, Bob, thanks. Everyone, just so you know, we have been having some slight technical issues on the call, I think with our host. So we have switched phones. And if for some reason we get disconnected during the call, we will dial back in. So with that, we are happy to take the first question.

Speaker 1

Our first question comes from Michael Nathanson from MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thank you. I have just one for Bob and it's a 2 parter. One is because you didn't say we're not going to talk about press speculation, you have a chance to actually address the stories this week in press.

Speaker 2

If you

Speaker 5

don't want to do that, let me ask.

Speaker 3

Yes, Michael, let me jump in. It's Lowell. I have some bad news and good news. The bad news is, as is our practice, we are not going to take any questions on press speculation. But the good news is we'll give you another question.

Speaker 5

Thank you, Will. Sorry to kind

Speaker 2

of hear. So Bob, I figured you could say that. Okay. So within your presentation

Speaker 5

a minute ago, you walked through your film strategy and that was essentially fixing Disney's film content. So this week, Kevin Mayer was saying that Disney has turned their attention to looking at TV because that's where the challenges are. So I wonder when you think about television, do you see the television challenge for you guys as having the right platform, the right model or having the right content? So is there a content fix here that maybe needs to be done as you did in film?

Speaker 2

Well, we think that the world today offers ample opportunity to monetize high quality, called in demand television programming. I think that's been demonstrated by a number of entities out there today. And if you look at consumption, which admittedly is fragmented, it's actually quite significant in terms of people's interest in consuming TV. We've had over the last few years, we've had some disappointments on the ABC side, but we've been focused on turning that around. We're actually very pleased with the performance of the good doctor already and we have 3 dramas in mid season that we're quite excited about as well, including a Grey's Anatomy spin off.

So I think it was we look at TV, we think, yes, some improvement would from a quality perspective would be helpful, But we also think we've got great opportunities. We also have strong production and creative capabilities, both from the ABC production side, also from the Disney Television Production side and from Marvel. And I mentioned in my earlier comments that we're in development on the Star Wars live action series as well. So our intention as a company is to take advantage of the opportunities that exist out there today for good television and to produce more of it.

Speaker 5

Okay, thanks.

Speaker 3

Okay, Michael. Thanks. Operator, next question please.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from Alexia Quadrani from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thank you. I've got one for Bob, one for Christine, if I may. Bob, I guess when you look at your film studio specifically, you've really outperformed by such a huge margin and the pipeline continues to look so robust. I guess, can more scale or acquisitions facilitate further growth? Or is your plate really full enough given the successful solution IP you already have?

Speaker 2

I appreciate the question. I think it's leading the witness a little bit as it relates to the subject that Michael brought up earlier. There's I don't think that there's ever such a thing as having too much quality or too many strong franchises when it comes to films. We do not feel right now that we have a great need to add to the film slate that we have because as you cited, we're doing just fine. It doesn't mean there isn't room for more.

We just don't have a significant or urgent need for that. That said, we've also as a company demonstrated an ability to leverage success in this area, not just in our studio, but across various other businesses, particularly consumer products and theme parks. And so we're always going to be looking to adding to the number of film franchises that we produce and own.

Speaker 6

And then Christine, I know it might be too early days, but I was wondering if there any color you can provide on the investment spending associated with the 2019 direct to consumer launch. Any sort of early data you can give us in a way to frame how we should think about potential earnings adjustment going into that product launch?

Speaker 7

Alexia, we have not yet finalized what the content spend is going to be in the cadence of it. But as Bob mentioned, we will be providing more information on that as it develops over the next few months.

Speaker 2

All right.

Speaker 6

Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

All right. Alexia, thank you. Operator, next question please.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from Ben Swinburne from Morgan Stanley. Please

Speaker 8

Bob, now that you've got the Altice deal done, so your first renewal of this cycle sort of behind you and at least for this quarter the subscriber losses seem to have gotten less severe. How are you feeling about that business over the next couple of years? Is that a business that you think operating income should grow? Do you have that sort of confidence? I wonder if you could talk a little bit about the outlook for that business and how the OTT launch fits into it?

And then, Christine, if I could just follow-up on Alexia's question on the either foregone licensing or incremental programming. Are we able to say at least for fiscal 2018 that we won't have a material impact from those two factors hitting earnings since you didn't list them when you talked in your prepared remarks about sort of factors be thinking about this year?

Speaker 2

Ben, I won't say too much about the Altice deal. I know you asked about the business overall, but I will say that in that deal, we met or achieved both our pricing and our distribution objectives, which bodes very well for negotiations that we will be having in 2019 and beyond, actually 2018 and beyond rather, Verizon in 2018 and Charter and AT and T Direct beyond that and then Comcast beyond that. We're pleased with where we ended up. We're also pleased with trends that we're seeing on the OTT side, where we've seen a nice pickup in subs in the basically the new players in the market. And what we're really heartened by is the fact that some of them are spending a fair amount and have stepped up their marketing efforts aggressively.

If you watch the World Series, you probably couldn't have missed the number of spots they're in almost every hour for new I guess was YouTube, new OTT service. That we think is great. It's also interesting that these OTT the entrants in the OTT business are spending in live sports. They obviously believe that the sports fan is potentially a primary customer of new OTT services. And what we've seen as well is millennials seem to be particularly interested in these services.

I think it's a combination of pricing and the user friendly nature of these services. As we've said call after call, we've had some sub issues that we've been dealing with, but Christine's comments suggested that while we've lost some we lost some subs in the quarter, the losses were not as steep as they had been in prior quarters. And we're not we're heartened by that as well, but it is 1 quarter. The other thing I want to note that's interesting, which ties into your question about the health of the business is that Nielsen provided us with 2 weeks of data, which was essentially data about live consumption of sports across multiple platforms, including streaming and these OTT services. And what they told us was that by including that, we had a 25% increase in total day ratings and a 29% increase among, I think in prime time.

That was basically that includes out of home viewing as well. So we think that the trends that we're seeing, albeit they're still not lengthy trends, but are at least giving us some reason to feel good about the business. We've always felt we were positioned well in it because of ESPN and Disney and ABC. On the direct to consumer front, as we've said as well that we're going into that business because we believe that our direct to consumer opportunities given the technology that's out there are significant and given the fact that we've got these great brands and franchises. And we think that what we're doing can easily be complementary to the multi channel services in the market, both the traditional ones and the new ones.

And when you see the apps that we will demonstrate sometime after the 1st of the year, you'll see that we're coming up, we're developing one app experiences where ESPN's app will enable the highlights and scores that ESPN typically gives, will enable live streaming of the channels on an authenticated basis and will also add a plus service, which will enable users to subscribe to for an extra fee to 1,000 more live sporting events

Speaker 7

going to impact April operating income by $130,000,000 that's BAMTech. But on the Disney D2C, we don't expect any significant items to impact spend in 2018.

Speaker 8

That's helpful. Thank you both.

Speaker 3

Okay. Operator, next question please.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from Jessica Reif Cohen from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thanks. Maybe for 2 guys a little bit, but can you talk a

Speaker 9

little bit about addressable or targeted advertising? Is it still off limits on the Disney DTC offer? And how do you think about the tipping point on addressability across all Disney advertising related platforms? And then just, Christine, if we could just follow-up on some of the CapEx questions. Can you talk about the cadence at all beyond fiscal 'eighteen?

It was great to get the call out for fiscal 'eighteen, but given the number of projects, Troy Story Land, Star Wars Land, the cruise ship, etcetera, etcetera, Shanghai, Can you just talk about like fiscal beyond fiscal 'eighteen, fiscal 'nineteen through 'twenty two or 'twenty three, what the cadence might be?

Speaker 2

Jessica, on the first question,

Speaker 5

we're going

Speaker 2

to launch ESPN service in the spring. That obviously will be advertiser supported. BAMTech, as we said at your conference and as I said in my remarks earlier, offers us some far more, I should say, capabilities when it relates to as it relates to addressable ads, live or inserted live on a dynamic basis into live sporting events. And so we feel that that gives us a lot of capability that we haven't had before. Whether that extends that capability extends to our other businesses in the non direct to consumer, I'm not sure.

We're currently not planning to sell ads on the Disney service, but that's just in development. There may be some interesting possibilities in terms of sponsorships versus inserted ads. But as of now, we're not planning to have the programming that airs in the OTT in the sorry, the DTC service interrupted by commercials.

Speaker 7

Jessica, on CapEx, you see for this year that we gave the comment that you can expect CapEx for 2018 to be about $1,000,000,000 above the twenty 17 level. And once again, a lot of that spend is going into the completion of the 2 Star Wars lands. And we're also completing Toy Story Land in Orlando, and there's other initiatives that are in process around the globe. We've talked about the longer term menu and I think in some of the meetings we've had, we've talked about the longer term plans for our parks and resort business and developing out further on attractions and resorts. So I think it's fair to assume that we will continue to make investments in areas in which we see driving long term value and long term returns.

So I would say this is a business that we feel very confident in and the business is working right now at a very high level and we'll continue to do so.

Speaker 2

The other thing to add to that is when you look at the results of our international parks, Shanghai as Christine cited and the improvements that we're seeing in Paris and the restructuring in Paris, as well as Hong Kong and even Tokyo, we have ample opportunity to continue invest and continue to expand those businesses. And with the franchises that we have and their popularity in these markets, the opportunity actually has increased significantly over the last few years.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Jessica. Operator, next question please.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from Jason Bazinet from Citi. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Just a question for Mr. Iger. Not really talking numbers, but more philosophically as you approach Disney DTC, have you decided sort of the cadence that you're going to approach this opportunity? In other words, you could go and sort of spend large and sort of say there's only going to be 1 or 2 winners on the back end of this evolution and Disney is going to be one of them. And the other way you could do it is just sort of spend consistent with the revenue that that new business generates.

So it doesn't really contribute to earnings maybe over the next 3 to 5 years. Can you just describe how you're thinking about the cadence of your approach?

Speaker 2

Sure. Before I do that, I think there's been a lot written about whether this is aimed at being a Netflix killer, etcetera and so on. And by the way, they've been a good partner in New Hours. Our goal here is to be a viable player in the direct to consumer space, space that we all know is a very, very compelling space to be in. We also believe that our brands and our franchises really matter as we've seen through Netflix and all other platforms.

And so that gives us an opportunity as well. We are working on the cadence that we will produce and sort of schedule product in this OTT service. We've not determined fully what that will be, although we've laid out on a calendar basis a fair amount of specifics. We're still working to develop original movies and original TV shows and figure out what makes the most sense. Part of it has to do with when they will be available.

But I'd say that we're I don't want to say we're going to walk before we run because we're going to as I've said earlier, we're going to launch this thing pretty aggressively. But I think what you'll see is a ramp up over time of production spending That will start with a product that we believe is representative of the great brands and franchises that we have. We Marvel and Disney and Pixar and Star Wars and then grow from there.

Speaker 5

Okay, very helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Jason. Operator, next question please.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from Todd Juenger from Sanford Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hi, thanks. I can't help but ask my respective question on entertainment OTT, I'm sorry. And then I have a quick one on consumer products as well. Actually just picking up kind of right where you left off, Bob, I'm just very curious to know how you're thinking about the role of the Disney brand, obviously very important to the service and what that means in terms of the type of content you envision ultimately fits within that brand on the service. You've talked about a lot of Disney branded content specifically and I heard you list obviously Marvel, NUKUS Film and Pixar.

It begs the question, do you think about free form and ABC content is also fitting within Disney? And then even when you start thinking of content that you could license in or otherwise get a hold of outside of your company, can you imagine that fit in the service? Or does need to stay narrowly defined sort of as all about the Disney brand and what that means? Thanks. And then quickly just on consumer products, just we had I just wonder how you think the Cars has been the stalwart of consumer products for so long.

You had a new release of a movie. Just wondered how you how the results lived up to your expectations on the consumer product side of that? And depending on your answer to that, any learnings there, if you think about other franchises, particularly in the animation space that have lasted a long time and the new world of the consumer opportunity there? Just any warnings from that would be great. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Okay, Todd. So the service will be Disney branded. In other words, it will be Disney name. We haven't determined what the name is yet, but it will be Disney name. The product we have in Europe is called Disney Life, but we've not decided what this one will be yet.

I think you have to think about it like you think about our theme parks, where they are Disney parks, but you go in and you see Marvel and Star Wars and Pixar, for instance. So it's a collection, it will be a collection of just those brands. And if one of those series, whether it's from Marvel or Lucas, whatever has standards, first of all, nothing is going to be hard, nothing is going to be R, but it has standards that don't necessarily fit completely with, I'll call it, the G or more G rated Disney, there'll be ample filtering opportunities for people using it. So if you just want your kids to see the Disney only product that can easily be accomplished. We're not ruling out the possibility of licensing product from 3rd parties for it, provided the product fits with the Disney brand.

As it relates to ABC and Freeform, we're going to continue to produce product for ABC and Freeform and our production capabilities for programming like that will also look to sell product to 3rd parties including Hulu. So and it's also possible by the way that ABC Productions could end up producing for the Disney branded service as well. We've actually talked about that a bit, but we're going to stick to Disney branded service and it will include Marvel, Pixar and Lucas brands within it or Star Wars brands.

Speaker 7

So Todd, on your question on consumer products, specifically related to Cars, Cars is still a very strong franchise for us. So even though Cars 3, the theatrical release of the movie underperformed and the performance of consumer products in this calendar year was a little bit lighter than we would have liked it to be. It's still one of our strongest franchises. And when we talk about some of the franchises that are over $1,000,000,000 annually, Cars is in there. And just another thing about 2018 for Consumer Products, we feel really, really good about the lineup we have going into this year.

We have Star Wars, Episode VIII, The Last Jedi. We deferred revenue in the Q4 into the Q1 like we did with Episode 7 for that. We also have Han Solo movie coming out named Solo in the spring quarters. And we've got 4 Marvel movies, including Avengers, in the spring. We also have Mickey's 90th birthday.

You should mark your calendar for this. It's November 18, 2018. But Mickey's 90th is something that the entire company is going to get behind and that should also be good for our consumer products business.

Speaker 3

Todd, thank you. Operator, next question please.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from Stephen Keayla from RBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Thank you. 2 for me. First, Bob, on direct to consumer, I was wondering if you've given any thought to the pricing strategy. Netflix has certainly been rewarded for strong subscriber growth rather than necessarily revenue growth. So do you think you build more equity value by coming out with a product that's really inexpensive in the Disney branded direct to consumer in order to maximize sub growth early on?

And then Christine, just on the buyback guidance, I think you did a little less than $9,000,000,000 in free cash flow this year and you've got a $1,000,000,000 step up in CapEx. So that's $8,000,000,000 in free cash flow before any cash flow growth next year at the operating line. So why the big step down in the buyback year on year? Are you just trying to be conservative and give yourself some wiggle room as you go through the year? Is it a view to the share price?

Is it a view to build cash on the balance sheet? Any color there would be great. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Steven, we've given a lot of thought to pricing, both the ESPN and the Disney branded service. And I can't get specific with you yet. We haven't actually officially determined it, but we said we will be forthcoming with you on this sometime after the 1st of the year. I can say that our plan on the Disney side is to price this substantially below where Netflix is. That is in part reflective of the fact that it will have substantially less volume.

It will have a lot of high quality because of the brands and the franchises that will be on it that we've talked about, but it will simply launch with less volume and the price will reflect that. It is our goal to attract as many subs as possible as starting out. We think we've got some interesting opportunities there given the affinity to Disney, whether it's with our Disney branded credit card holders, our annual pass holders, people who are members of D23, people who own Vacation Club units at Disney, people who visit our parks frequently. There's a gigantic potential Disney customer base out there that we're going to seek to attract with pricing that is commensurate with where that balances the quality of the brands and franchises that are in there, but also takes into account the volume. And that will give us an opportunity to grow in volume and to have the pricing over time reflect the added volume as this product ages.

Speaker 7

Steve, on the buyback, that $6,000,000,000 is a number that as I mentioned, is the average over the last 5 years, roughly the average over the last 5 years. As you saw both in 2017 2016, we came in at a higher level than what we originally started out the year as. So if you want to view that as a conservative approach, we are early in the year and we'll make adjustments as we go through the year, based on the business environment. But once again, we have increased the last couple of years from what we originally started out as.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Speaker 3

All right. Thanks, Steve. Operator, next question please.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from Marci Ryvicker from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Marci? Okay, operator, let's move on. There you are. Now we got you, Marci.

Speaker 12

So a little more color on the sports write offs, if that's what they were related to BAMTech. Was it a certain sport? Was it just technical? Just because there's so much sensitivity around sports rights right now. And then second question, there was an article that came out at some point talking about maybe there's a time when ESPN may not participate or have NFL rights and maybe you're changing your distribution agreements to allow some sort of flexibility.

Is there any

Speaker 3

Okay. We lost the Marci, is that can you hear us still, Mac?

Speaker 12

Can you hear me?

Speaker 5

Yes. So

Speaker 3

we got the 2 questions. So NFL was

Speaker 2

one which we're not going to comment on. We've had a long healthy relationship with the NFL. It's important product to ESPN, both the live games that we have on Monday night and all the shoulder programming that we do, some of it or much of it licensed directly from the NFL. And we're not going to comment on anything related to the future relationship or the as it affects our distribution agreements.

Speaker 7

So on the BAMTech valuation adjustment, that was an adjustment to programming rights that were prepaid prior to the acquisition. And we're not going to be specific on it, but it does relate just to one rights deal. And we looked at it based on current performance and the duration of the contract, and we didn't think we had enough time to recover the payment. So the contract was mark to market.

Speaker 12

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Okay, Marci. Thanks. Operator, next question please.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from Tim Nollen from Macquarie. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Hi, thanks. Bob, I'd like to follow-up on your comments on the really strong pickup in ratings from the streaming viewership. I know there's a summit being convened later this month by one of your peers. I just wonder if you have any comments to make on broader use of digital measurement in the TV ecosystem?

Speaker 2

Well, I think, first of all, as I said earlier, it just was 2 weeks. And we like the trend, obviously, but we got it we have to give this more time. Frankly, we're not really surprised by it though, because we've known for a long time that at home viewing of sports is significant and the more granular or the more unimpeachable data we can get on that the better because it just confirms what we all know. We all watch sports wherever we are, all out of the home. It also confirms that sports on mobile platforms, which often is out of the home, is also growing in popularity.

And this picks up a lot of that consumption. And the other thing it includes, it includes live sports viewership on new OTT entrants, on new OTT platforms. And there too in part because of the interest in those platforms for millennials suggest that sports, live sports is very, very important to those platforms. I think that's reflected in the fact that every one of these services that launched is launched with the rights to distribute ESPN and into all of their customers. And because they know how vital it is and as I said earlier, just the fact that these platforms are advertising in live sports suggests they're going after the sports viewer or the sports fan because they think that's a that has high potential for them as a customer.

So we feel good about what we're seeing. And while there's obviously been a lot of attention paid to ESPN and subs, etcetera and so on, we've never lost our bullishness about ESPN. The brand is strong. The quality of their programming is strong. There are always opportunities to improve.

We're just launching a new morning program as a for instance. But we like where ESPN is these days and we believe that one of the best things that we've got going for ESPN is the new technology in the marketplace that's enabling people to watch sports on more user friendly platforms and wherever they are. And as we can measure that and add to that the technology that we need to monetize advertising in more effective ways, that's pretty good combination.

Speaker 3

Tim, thank you. Operator, we have time for one more question.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from Barton Crockett from B. Riley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Okay. Thank you for taking the question. I was interested in looking at the bigger kind of impact of Hulu. So you've got some drag from your share of the losses in the earnings of Hulu, but you've also got a benefit from you were selling them programming to some degree, you're getting subs from them that pay you fees or some share of advertising. I was just wondering, when you net it all together, is this actually a net drag or largely mitigated or maybe a net positive if you look at the broader impact of Hulu?

Speaker 2

Talking over time or to date? Because we know today

Speaker 14

To date and obviously over time you think it works. But just right now as you're kind of ramping up, I think there's some mitigation of the expenses there with some of the benefits.

Speaker 2

So, to date, the P and L impact of Hulu is positive to the company for the year, sorry, for the year, not for fiscal 2017. It's positive to the company because the investment that we've made in it as it grows has been offset by the licensing fees that we've gotten for both our channels, but largely in 2017 because they didn't launch the service until late from the licensing of programming to the standard Hulu service. And it was also an improvement from 2016. So in other words, we had growth to the bottom line in Hulu from 2016 to 2017. Where our continued investment in Hulu is because we're confident in its ability to both grow in terms of the best BOD service, but also to grow as an OTT multi channel operator.

And we've seen some nice numbers there. Still just the beginning, and we're not going to get specific about what those are. We've got new management in Hulu as well, Randy Freer is now running it. And I know he's certainly bullish about it. And we continue to believe that long term Hulu is a significant will be a significantly valuable investment for us.

We also believe that we can grow our licensing to Hulu, talked earlier about television production, yet another opportunity for us.

Speaker 14

Okay, that's great. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Barton, and thanks everyone for joining us today. Sorry about some of the technical glitches. Note that a reconciliation of non GAAP measures that were referred to on this call to equivalent GAAP measures can be found on our Investor Relations website. Let me also remind you that certain statements on this call may constitute forward looking statements under the securities laws. We make these statements on the basis of our views and assumptions regarding future events and business performance at the time we make them, and we do not undertake any obligation to update these statements.

Forward looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from the results expressed or implied in light of a variety of factors, including factors contained in our annual report on Form 10 ks and in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This concludes the call. Have a good afternoon everyone.

Speaker 1

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's call. Thank you for participating.

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