Earnings Call: Q4 2019

Mar 13, 2020

Thank you for standing by, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Dynagas LNG Partners Conference Call on the 4th Quarter 2019 Financial Results. We have with us Mr. Tony Lauritzen, Chief Executive Officer and Mr. Michael Grigos, Chief Financial Officer of the company. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question and answer session. I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today. At this time, I would like to read the Safe Harbor statement. This conference call and slide presentation of the webcast contains certain forward looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Investors are cautioned that such forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, which may affect Dynagas LNG Partners' business prospects and results of operations. Such risks are more fully disclosed in Dynagas LNG Partners filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. And now I pass the floor to Mr. Lauritzen. Please go ahead, sir. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us in our Q4 Year Ended 31 December 2019 Earnings Conference Call. I'm joined today by our CFO, Michael Gregos. We have issued a press release announcing our results for the same period. Certain non GAAP measures will be discussed on this call. We have provided a description of those measures as well as a discussion of why we believe this information to be useful in our press release. Let's move on to Slide 3. Our fleet of 6 LNG carriers are all contracted on charters to international gas producers with an estimated average remaining contract term of about 8.6 years. The operational performance of the fleet was good with a utilization of 100% for the 4th quarter. The The partnership recorded a net income of BRL 5,500,000 and earnings of BRL 0.07 per common unit for the same period. Adjusted net income and adjusted EBITDA for the quarter were reported at CHF 5,600,000 CHF 24,000,000, respectively, distributable cash flow of $10,200,000 As of December 31, 2019, total cash was reported at $66,200,000 of which $50,000,000 is restricted in accordance with the terms of our credit facility. We also have a DKK 30,000,000 revolving credit facility provided by our sponsor. We paid in November 'nineteen a quarterly cash distribution of 0 point 5 $6.25 per Series per Series 8 preferred unit for the period from August 12, 'nineteen to November 11, 2019, and a quarterly cash distribution of $0.64 $0.1116 per Series B preferred unit for the period from August 22, 'nineteen to November 21, 'nineteen. Subsequent to the quarter, we also paid in February 20, 2020, a quarterly cash distribution of $0.56 and the quarter pursues 8 preferred units for the period from November 12, 19 to February 11, 2020 and a cash and quarterly cash distribution of 0 point 5 4 dollars 11.16 per Series B Preferred Unit for the period from November 22, 2019 to February 21 to 2020. Will now turn the presentation over to Michael, who will provide you with further comments to the financial results. Thank you, Tony. Moving on to Slide 4. We are pleased with the 4th quarter results, which represent the 1st full quarter after our transformative global debt refinancing, which was concluded on September 25, 2019, with all of our vessels trading in their long term charters. We are extremely pleased with the operational performance of our vessels having reached 100% utilization under their charter contracts. Net income for the quarter increased by 7 11 percent to $5,500,000 over the Q4 of 2018, and our adjusted EBITDA increased by 11% to $24,000,000 for the same period. The increase is attributed to 3 factors. Firstly, all of our vessels are delivered and trading under the long term contract at an average daily gross rate of about $62,000 per day per vessel compared to $57,500 per day per vessel for the corresponding period in 2018 in which the Lena River was trading under a short term contract prior to her delivery to Yamal in July of this year or the prior year, I'm sorry. Secondly, we have no dry dock expenditures for the Q4 of 2019 compared to 1 dry dock in the corresponding period in 2018. Our next scheduled 5 year mandatory special surveys on dry docks are expected to take place in 20222023. Thirdly, our average weighted interest expense dropped from 6.6% in the Q4 of 2018 to 5.2% in the Q4 of 2019, resulting in savings of about BRL 2,000,000 in interest. This was despite our higher weighted average indebtedness for the 4th quarter for the quarter, which stood at BRL757,000,000 as a result of the fact that for 30 days, we had our BRL 250,000,000 note outstanding, which was repaid on October 30 from the proceeds of the $675,000,000 debt refinancing and our Series B preferred issuance, which took place in October 2018. Following the $250,000,000 note repayment on October 30, 2019, our average debt balance will decrease to reflect the debt outstanding on our only debt instrument, being our senior secured debt financing, which as of December 31 amounted to $663,000,000 For the quarter, we were cash neutral as the cash flow from our long term contracts was utilized to service our amortizing debt and pay distributions to preferred unitholders. Going forward, since we have floating interest rate exposure, we expect to benefit from a material reduction in interest rates compared to where they were in the Q4 of 2019 and the Q1 of 2020. In this respect, we are closely monitoring the situation with respect to hedging our interest rate exposure. Moving on to Slide 5. Our debt profile has significantly improved following our global refinancing in which we replaced low amortizing debt with amortizing debt with significantly lower interest costs. Just to put things in perspective, prior to our global refinancing, for the full year of 2018, we had a weighted average debt balance of BRL 726,000,000 comprising mainly of low amortizing debt for which we paid interest expense of BRL 47,000,000 With our new amortizing debt structure, which currently stands at $663,000,000 we expect our interest expense for 2020 to amount to $27,000,000 dollars assuming current short term rates. Therefore, comparing our prior low amortizing debt structure with our new amortizing debt structure, we expect savings of $15,000,000 per year after accounting for the $5,000,000 distributions to the Series B preferred unitholders with a relatively small portion of these savings being attributable to lower short term rates. As previously advised, balance sheet protection is our top priority and growth initiatives have been put on hold for the moment. Given that we are paying €48,000,000 per annum in principal payments, which is 1.5x the rate our ships depreciate and 1.3x our current market cap, we expect to build equity and balance sheet capacity over time, and we expect our leverage metrics to gradually improve on a steady state basis from 6.6x net debt expected last 12 months EBITDA for the Q4 of 2019 to 5.2x by the Q2 of 2021, assuming current LIBOR rates and barring any unscheduled off hire. As of 31st December, net debt to book total capitalization as of was stood at 61%. We are in the fortunate position of having a fleet of LNG carriers whose cash flow can be utilized to organically deleverage without any debt maturities until 2024. We remain we will remain focused on improving our leverage metrics and free liquidity. I will hand over the presentation to Tony. Thank you, Michael. Let's move on to Slide 6. Our fleet currently accounts 6 LNG carriers with an average age of about 9.6 years. We have a diversified customer base with substantial energy companies, namely Equinor, Gazprom and Yamal LNG, which still after the joint venture between Total, CNP, NovoTech and the Silk Road Fund. Our contract backlog is about ZAR 1,240,000,000, equivalent to average backlog of about ZAR 207 1,000,000 per vessel. And our average remaining charter period is about 8.6 years, which compares well versus our periods. Moving on to Slide 7. With the Lena River delivered into her multiyear charter on 1st July 2019 with Yamal LNG, each of our 6 LNG carriers are now fully delivered and operating under their respective term charters. Our fleet of LNG carriers are fixed on term time charters with key energy companies. We believe that the drivers for these charters were the characteristics of the fleet, including its I Class notation and our organization's track record. All the vessels are employed on time charter contracts, under which the charter pays all major voyage related variable costs, such as fuel, canal fees and terminal costs. Our counterparties are mainly asset strong energy producers that are typically able to forward program the vessels for periods of time, which gives us a certain degree of planning, ability and cost control. We estimate our fleet to be 100% contracted in 2020, 92% in 2021 83% in 2022. Our earliest potential availability is the Arctic Aurora, which will be available in 2021 provided that Equinor does not exercise the option to extend the contract. So far, the vessel has served Equinor with good feedback and results. The next available vessel after the Arctic Aurora may be the Clean Energy, which contract expires in 20 26. Now the current charter market for LNG carriers is challenging, in particular due to the global COVID-nineteen virus situation, which is contributing to depressed gas prices. Although our income have not been affected by the situation as all of our vessels are employed on term contracts, we are monitoring the outlook. From an operational point of view, we are taking preventive measures to reduce the risk of seafarers, office staff getting infected by the virus. Let's move on to Slide 8. We have a unique and versatile fleet. 5 out of the 6 vessels in our fleet are assigned with Ice Class 1A notation. Therefore, the fleet can handle conventional LNG shipping as well as operating icebound and subzero areas. The initial capital expenditure for an ice class vessel is more expensive than conventional carriers. However, we estimate the operating cost between our ice class pack carriers and conventional carriers to be very similar. To our knowledge, the company, together with our sponsor, has a market share of about 82% for vessels with Arc IV or equivalent I class notation. To our knowledge, there are only 2 other LNG carriers in the world with equivalent notation, which are charted out in the long term. We view the ability to trade in ice bound areas as an important advantage due to the increased production of LNG in such areas and in particular along the Northern Sea routes. To our knowledge, Yamal LNG is producing at close to full capacity at their mega project, and we also expect further projects to be developed in that region. In general, we view the ability to perform conventional and niche operations as an important driver in securing attractive long term charters. Furthermore, our fleet is optimized for terminal compatibility, which we believe is of value to our charters, and the fleet consists of groups of sister vessels that provide for overall better economics, operations, preventive maintenance and redundancy. Moving on to Slide 9. So we are a premier energy shipping company. We're known as a reliable service provider able to operate in extreme harsh environments. Our fleet is relatively young compared with the world average and provides for trading versatility. The financial profile of the company is simple and provides us with competitive cost of debt with a clear path towards reducing debt over time through a significant annual debt amortization. The partnership has inflates term charter contracts with international energy companies, generating cash flows that we expect to be channel 2 with the amortization requirement of the financing facility, which we believe will result in building equity value over time and beyond this position the company for future growth. We have now reached the end of the presentation, and I now open the floor for questions. Shortly. The line is now open. Please go ahead, caller. Yes. Thanks. Hello. This is Ben Nolan from Stifel. Good morning, afternoon, Michael, Tony. Hi. Like the race car in the background there. But the I had a couple of questions that sort of related really to the company. The first is, as it relates to maybe the ability to hedge or swap out the debt, could you maybe just frame in that a little bit? How much of that debt well, is any of it hedged right now? But beyond that, how much do you think you feel comfortable hedging or effectively kind of just locking in the cash flows entirely? Yes. Ben, we haven't hedged yet, but I mean we're really we're monitoring the situation on a daily basis because the market has been very, very volatile the last couple of days. So we're getting quotes on a daily basis. I think it is a possibility that if the price is right, we could hit the whole thing. But it's a day by day thing. The market is, as I said, is so volatile that we'll have to see. And then my next question relates to the preferreds. And is there under the terms of your credit agreement, I know that there's not a lot of cash left over. Still, the preferred to trading substantially below par in this environment. Is there any ability or appetite at all to be able to maybe pick off a little of that or buy a little of that back or something in the current market given that the yield is pretty substantial here? Yes. Well, listen, I mean, it's difficult for the moment because we have $66,000,000 on our balance sheet as of December 31. And let's not forget $50,000,000 of this is blocked in the collateral accounts under the terms of our credit agreement. So that equates free cash of about $2,500,000,000 per share. So we have to be a little careful since we need some cash on the balance sheet for safety in case something unexpected occurs from an operational perspective. But having said that, if we build up a meaningful cash position over time, this could be discussed. And as I said before, this massive drop in interest rates has helped towards that direction. Sure. Okay. And then last, just for Tony. I'm curious as sort of maybe the state of the ice class ship appetite, obviously, currently the spot market is not terribly strong for regular LNG ships. But is there and in particular with the continued movement forward by for some of the Russian Arctic projects, Arctic LNG and others. Is there is it really developing in your mind that maybe kind of a completely 2 tiered market, where this little niche space that can maybe continue to earn really good rates if they were available despite sort of a softer, maybe broader market for the LNG carriers? Yes. Thank you, Ben. To be honest, I don't think we have seen that this has really developed into a 2 tier market simply because there are not so many of these Arctic projects around. So on the Arctic project side, you don't have continuous fixing of vessels and data points that we kind of establish kind of a 2 tier market. But I do believe that, as we have seen before, with, for example, when we fixed our vessels to Yamal LNG, was that they wanted ice class vessels. We had ice class vessels. There were almost none around. So I think it's reasonable to believe that going forward with new projects in the same region that they will need similar vessels, and that will be an opportunity for potential open vessels in the future there. Now again, the benefit of the vessels that we have is that they can serve both the open market without handicap and serve this particular niche market. So we would just have to wait and see. I mean, right now, we don't have any opening until 2021. I think it's about August. So we are not in a rush to do anything. You very much. Thank you. We will now take our next question. Please go ahead caller. Your line is now open. Liam Burke, B. Riley. Good afternoon, Tony, afternoon, Michael. Hi. Liam. Tony, you mentioned in your prepared statements the attractive nature of your fleet and competitive advantage. As we look into you also mentioned that the LNG market is kind of tough right now with gas prices so low. If you put it back together and you look at Avenir and that charter expiring in mid-twenty 21, are you comfortable enough that you're going to get a favorable rate on that renewal? Yes. That's a very good question. And to be honest, it's an impossible question to answer because mid-twenty 21 is a good time from now. Due to this virus situation, the drop in oil pricing, we've seen a serious disruption in the LNG shipping market. So I mean, right now, if we were to engage in any discussions right now, I wouldn't expect a pricing to be very good. But what we're seeing slowly is that while people are coming back to their desks and factories in China, gas demand is starting to emerge and shipping demands are starting to emerge right now, which is which we see on the spot market. We don't see it on the term market yet, but we see some movement on the spot market. So I think that what happened now in the market was it was 2 things really. It was energy shifting cyclical. So we were and are, in any event, in the low part of the cycle because we enter because we're exiting the winter market. The winter market tends to be good because a lot of gas in the fire is required for heating. And now we're exiting that market. So in any event, it would have been a low market. And then we had this virus situation on top, which just amplified the down part of the cycle. So I think that we will have to see what summer brings and what happens towards the coming winter, and then we would be able to give a view on the market. Right now, it's just very difficult. Sure. And your amortization your debt amortization is twice your vessel depreciation creating nice underlying value there. Presuming you don't refinance and this debt continues to amortize, is there a level, not specifically, but is there a level of leverage where you're comfortable looking at reallocating capital to other opportunities, maybe looking at assets? Well, I mean looking at assets as leverage is definitely part of the equation, but it's also many other factors that need to be taken into consideration. I think that the level the trajectory of our debt and the way it amortizes means that in a couple of years, we will be at the level which will make us feel more comfortable in general. So we don't have a specific number, but we see that trajectory over time, our leverage going down below 5x and more than that over the next couple of years. And as our leverage goes down, obviously, it makes it easier to discuss other things. Sure. All righty. Well, thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. Howdy, gentlemen. It's Randy Giveans at Jefferies. Hi, Randy. Hey. So just looking at your kind of overall fleet, I know you said Yamal production is still blowing and going. Any other kind of changes that you've seen in terms of just vessel movements or operations globally as vessels slow down now that there's less activity? What can you kind of tell us from an operational side? Yes. Thank you for the question. Look, I think the main change that we saw in the last month was the reduced amount of volumes going to China and a lot of diversions, vessels that were originally going to China or to specific port in China were diverted away. So obviously, there were a lot of consequences as a result of that. So I think that's the single most the single biggest change that we saw. And that was I think that was a strong contributor to lower gas prices because suddenly that was a signal that China will shut to buy more gas, where Exel is selling outstand this gas. So Sanibel had a very quick dramatic impact on LNG prices. Now as we said in the conference call in the presentation just earlier, we are starting to see the emergence of demand of spot shipping again and people coming back to their desks in China. So we it seems that they have the virus under a certain degree of control there. So we expect the demand to increase going forward so that we can facilitate their industrial production. Okay. And then just looking at Dynagas specifically, the stocks obviously have fallen 50% in a month. It's down to a market cap of maybe $40,000,000 Your sponsor already owns 45% or so. So why not just kind of take it private here, roll it back in and undo the kind of public listing? Well, I mean, no, that's not our focus. I mean, what we said is our focus right now is just to deleverage and improve our liquidity. That's where that's what our focus is at the moment, not taking the company private. Okay. That's it for me. Thank you. Thank you. There are no further questions. I will hand back to the speakers. Thank you. Okay. Thank you very much for your time and for listening in on our earnings call. We look forward to speak with you again on our next call. Thank you very much. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You all may disconnect.