Daqo New Energy Corp. (DQ)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2022

Aug 3, 2022

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Daqo second quarter 2022 financial results conference call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on the touch tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kevin He, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Kevin He
Director of Investor Relations, Daqo New Energy

Hello, everyone. I'm Kevin He, the Investor Relations of Daqo New Energy. Thank you for joining our conference call today. Daqo New Energy just issued its financial results for the second quarter of 2022, which can be found on our website at www.dqsolar.com. To facilitate today's conference call, we have also prepared a PPT presentation for your reference. Today, attending the conference call we have Mr. Longgen Zhang, our Chief Executive Officer, and Mr. Ming Yang, our Chief Financial Officer. The call today will feature an update from Mr. Zhang on market and operations, and then Mr. Yang will discuss the company's financial performance for the quarter and the year. After that, we will open the floor to Q&A from the audience.

Before we begin the formal remarks, I would like to remind you that certain statements on today's conference call, including expected future operational and financial performance and industry growth, are forward-looking statements that are made under the safe harbor provisions of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in the reports or documents we have filed with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission. These statements only reflect our current and preliminary view as of today and may be subject to change. Our ability to achieve these projections is subject to risks and uncertainties.

All information provided in today's call is as of today, and we undertake no duty to update such information except as required under applicable law. Also, during the call, we will occasionally reference monetary amounts in US dollar terms. Please keep in mind that our functional currency is the Chinese RMB. We offer these translations into US dollars solely for the convenience of the audience. Without further ado, I now turn the call to our CEO, Mr. Zhang. Over to you.

Longgen Zhang
CEO, Daqo New Energy

Hello. Good morning. Good evening. We are very proud to deliver an excellent quarter with a record production volume and profits. Revenue reached $1.24 billion. Gross profit was $937 million with gross margin of 76%. Net income attributable to Daqo shareholders was $628 million, an increase of 17.2% from $535.8 million in the first quarter of 2022, and an increase of 170% from $232 million in Q2 2021. Our cash position at the end of the quarter was an increase of approximately $2.2 billion from $1.1 billion at the end of Q1 2022.

Reflecting our strong cash flow generation, cash and banking note receivable combined balances reached $4.6 billion. Operating cash flow was $1.1 billion for the first six months of this year. During the quarter, we operated at full capacity and produced 35,326 metric tons of polysilicon. More than 99% of our production were high-purity mono-grade polysilicon products. We successfully ramped up our new Phase 4B facility to full capacity and further optimized its operational performance. Our sequential improvement in gross profits and gross margin was primarily driven by a 28% reduction in our polysilicon production costs. With higher manufacturing efficiency and better economy of scale, we reduced our per unit electricity cost and depreciation cost by 7% and 13% in RMB terms quarter-over-quarter, respectively.

In addition, our metallurgical grade silicon cost in the second quarter was reduced by 37% as compared to the first quarter. With our facility in optimized stable operations, we believe we will be able to maintain and possibly further improve our cost structure in Q3 and Q4 this year. We expect an even more favorable outlook for the cost at our new Inner Mongolia facility. As a chemical refining facility, safe and stable operations are extremely important for polysilicon production, and our facilities perform the best under such conditions. In order to minimize the impact on operations, we will conduct our annual maintenance in phases spread throughout the third and the fourth quarters. During the same time, we will conduct some technology improvement projects, which are expected to further save energy and optimize efficiency.

As a result, we expect our polysilicon production volume in the third quarter to be in the range of 31,000-32,000 metric tons. With our better- than- expected operational performance in the first half of this year, we are increasing our guidance on annual production volume to 129,000-132,000 metric tons for the whole year of 2022, up from our previous guidance of 120,000-125,000 metric tons. In June 2022, our major operating subsidiary, Xinjiang Daqo, received total gross proceeds of approximately CNY 11 billion from its private offering on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Upon completion of the private offering, Daqo New Energy beneficially owns approximately 72.68% of Xinjiang Daqo.

Proceeds from the offering will be used primarily for our Phase 5A polysilicon production project of 100,000 metric tons in Inner Mongolia. This new project is currently under construction and expected to be completed by the second quarter of 2023. Driven by several favorable trends, the global solar industry saw robust demand in the first half of this year, and the demand both in China and overseas continues to exceed market expectations. According to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, China's production of polysilicon and the solar modules in the first half of this year was approximately 365,000 metric tons and 123.6 gigawatts, respectively. An increase of 53.4% and 54.1% compared to the same period of last year.

While solar PV product supply increased significantly compared to last year. ASPs kept rising across the entire solar value chain due to stronger than expected end market demand. Despite rising ASPs, during the first half of this year, solar PV installation in China reached 30.9 gigawatts, and China exported 78.6 gigawatts of solar modules, up 137% and 74% respectively over the same period of 2021. Driven by strong end market demand and increased orders from wafer suppliers, polysilicon ASPs and profitability improved continuously during the first half of this year, despite increased supply.

According to the China Silicon Association, the average price indicated that for high density mono-grade polysilicon increased significantly by 29.3% from CNY 229 per kg in the first week in January 2022 to CNY 296 per kg in the last week of July 2022. Nevertheless, our production is sold out for August, and we have a strong order backlog for our products. We understand that many newly built wafer facilities are idle because of the shortage of polysilicon. Capacity expansion is much faster in the downstream than in the polysilicon sector. Beyond the urgency to address climate change that is driving various supportive policies to accelerate the adoption of solar energy globally.

In which the conflict in Europe has led to an energy crisis with substantially higher natural gas and oil prices. Solar PV is easier and faster to deploy. Its costs, which has already reached grid parity, is locked in for the next 20-30 years. The rise in energy costs has made solar PV increasingly attractive. Especially in the country facing energy shortages and seeking energy safety and independence. For instance, in the second quarter, European solar PPA price increased substantially, and the market saw a substantial increase in demand from Europe, with module exports to Europe greater than 50% of total module exports for China. In June, our board of directors authorized the company to repurchase up to $100 million worth of its own issued shares on open market.

As of today, we have already repurchased approximately $50 million worth of our ADRs, and we will continue to do so as we believe our current ADR price is seriously undervalued and not reflect our position as an industry leader with strong profitability and operating cash flow. With growing global policy support and attractive economics, we are confident that solar PV market demand and the prices will remain strong, providing sustainable and healthy profits to the solar manufacturing value chain. In the first half of this year, despite a 53.4% increase in production volume in China over the same period of last year, polysilicon was still a drag on the entire solar PV manufacturing value chain, and the capacity expansion was meaningful for a slower than in the downstream sectors.

Challenges in getting energy consumption approvals, long construction times, delayed ramp-up times, as well as the operational inexperience of new players, make polysilicon one of the sectors with the highest entry barriers and slowest expansion growth in the solar PV manufacturing value chain. We expect this imbalance to continue for a while and help our sector greatly benefit from the robust market demand. We will continue to focus on our core business and further strengthen our industry leadership by increasing capacity, reducing our cost structure, and improving product quality so as to continuously reward our shareholders. Our vision is that in the not- too- distant future, renewable energy will displace fossil fuels to become the primary source of energy for humans, with solar energy playing the biggest role. Our mission is to help make that vision a reality.

The company expects to produce approximately 31,000 metric tons to 32,000 metric tons of polysilicon in the third quarter of 2022, and approximately 129,000 metric tons to 132,000 metric tons of polysilicon in the full year to 2022, inclusive of the impact of the company's annual specific maintenance. Now, I will turn the call to our CFO, Mr. Yang.

Ming Yang
CFO, Daqo New Energy

Thank you, Longgen, and good day, everyone. Thank you for joining our earnings conference call today. Now I will go over our second quarter 2022 financial results. Revenues were CNY 1.24 billion, compared to CNY 1.28 billion in the first quarter of 2022, and CNY 441 million in the second quarter of 2021. The slight decrease in revenue as compared to the first quarter of 2022 was due to a slight decrease in sales volume, compensated by a slight increase in average selling prices. Gross profit was CNY 947 million for the quarter, compared to CNY 813.6 million in the first quarter of 2022, and CNY 303 million in the second quarter of 2021.

Gross margin was 76.1%, compared to 63.5% in the first quarter of 2022, and 68.7% in the second quarter of 2021. The increase in gross profit and gross margin as compared to the first quarter was primarily due to lower production costs and higher average selling prices. Selling, general and administrative expenses were CNY 14.4 million, compared to CNY 15.5 million in the first quarter of 2022, and CNY 9.3 million in the second quarter of 2021. SG&A expenses during the quarter included $2 million in non-cash share-based compensation costs related to the company's share incentive plan. R&D expenses were CNY 2.7 million, compared to CNY 2.1 million in the first quarter of 2022, and CNY 2.1 million in the second quarter of 2021.

R&D expenses can vary from period to period and reflect R&D activities that take place during the quarter, and most of the R&D activity are during the quarter related to the development of our N-type, the polysilicon product. Income from operations was CNY 927.6 million compared to CNY 796.9 million in the first quarter of 2022, and CNY 292.4 million in the second quarter of 2021. Operating margin was 74.6% compared to 52.2% in the first quarter of 2022, and 66.3% in the second quarter of 2021. EBITDA was CNY 955 million, compared to CNY 827 million in the first quarter of 2022, and CNY 312 million in the second quarter of 2021.

EBITDA margin was 76.8% compared to 64.6% in the first quarter of 2022, and 70.6% in the second quarter of 2021. Net income attributable to Daqo New Energy shareholders was CNY 627.8 million, compared to CNY 535.8 million in the first quarter of 2022, and CNY 232 million in the second quarter of 2021. Earnings per basic ADS was $8.36 for the quarter, compared to $7.17 in the first quarter of 2022, and $3.15 in the second quarter of 2021.

As of June 30, 2022, the company had $3.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents compared to $1.1 billion as of March 31, 2022, and $270 million as of June 30, 2021. As of June 30, 2022, notes receivable balance was $1.27 billion, compared to $1.5 billion as of March 31, 2022, and $97 million as of June 30, 2022. As of June 30, 2022, total bank borrowings were nil, compared to nil as of March 31, 2022, and total bank borrowings of $156.6 million as of June 30, 2021. Now on the company's cash flow.

For the six months ended June 30, 2022, net cash provided by operating activities was CNY 1.13 billion, compared to CNY 442 million in the same period of 2021. The increase was primarily due to higher revenue and higher gross margin for the company. For the six months ended June 30, 2022, net cash used in investing activities was CNY 80 million, compared to CNY 255 million in the same period of 2021. Net cash used in investing activities in 2022 was primarily related to the capital expenditures of the company's 100,000-metric-ton polysilicon project in Inner Mongolia and offset by $265 million in redemption of short-term investments.

For the six months ended June 30, 2022, net cash provided by financing activities was CNY 1.58 billion, compared to net cash used in financing activities of CNY 37 million in the same period of 2021. The net cash provided by financing activities in 2022 was primarily related to the net proceeds of CNY 1.63 billion from Xinjiang Daqo's private offering in China's Shanghai Stock Exchange. That concludes our prepared remarks. Now we will open the call for questions from the audience.

Operator

Thank you.

Ming Yang
CFO, Daqo New Energy

Operator?

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question- and- answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question comes from Philip Shen with ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead.

Philip Shen
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Roth Capital Partners

Thanks for taking my questions. Congratulations on the strong results here. Wanted to talk about your view for poly pricing. If you could share a little bit more color on how you expect it to develop in Q3 and Q4, with the announced capacity expansions from competitors. How do you expect poly pricing to trend and be in 2023 by quarter? Thanks.

Longgen Zhang
CEO, Daqo New Energy

Thank you, Philip. I think, you know, today, because we didn't have any technology barrier, so wafer, cell, and module. Basically, polysilicon price is in a positive correlation with the module price. Today, the module price, I think, selling at CNY 2-2.1, so can support the poly. Right now, I think the market price is almost close, I think, CNY 310-320.

Basically, we believe, you know, the module price will continue to keep at that level, this level. We think of the price, I think, you know, right now Q3 is very strong. The Q4 we think will continue to keep maybe to the, you know, end of the year. It depends on situation in China, with China in a rush, you know, installation. If that case continues, then also considering, you know, new production, polysilicon production will be, I think, you know, produced, I think, sellable polysilicon. But we believe the poly price will continue to keep higher by, you know, for the rest of this year.

For next year, we believe there's not too much, you know, new polysilicon come out as we see that. Even though, just like I said, some new player come in because of the design time, because of construction time, because of the technology, because of the equipments, the R&D design and also installation. All these factors add together. I think at least, I think newcomer need taking 18 months to 24 months be a player. Even though considering the polysilicon come out, the price, you know, I think jump back last year, let's say second half of last year, some new coming come in.

They, I think, will maybe produce some new capacity in the second half next year. We consider, you know, the 2023, the first half of the year price will continue keep about $250 per kg. For the second half of next year, the price maybe will go down. I think maybe it will be $180-$200. Then beyond next year, really, we cannot you know project you know the price will go to you know which direction. But considering the market potential is higher, if the polysilicon price is positively correlated with the module. Unless the polysilicon supply is totally you know higher than demand.

If that's the case, for the wafer, cell and the module production, only taking three-four months to install, to construct, to put into the production. Basically, only the module price goes down, then the polysilicon price will go down. Considering that, if the module price goes down, then the market demand will higher. I think that will stimulate the demand of polysilicon. I think to certain time, it's some balance there. Basically, we're not thinking, you know, polysilicon will drop to below CNY 120 per kg. That's what we believe. Thank you, Philip.

Philip Shen
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Roth Capital Partners

Thank you, Longgen. That's a lot of detail. I appreciate the color. You know, you talked about your capacity expansion, phase 5A. You know, congratulations on your recent capital raise and now you're funded for the expansion and you're targeting the Q2 2023 ramp up of 5A. When do you think you make the decision on 5B? And can you remind us how much more capacity you could have in Inner Mongolia or elsewhere? Thanks.

Longgen Zhang
CEO, Daqo New Energy

As you see, you know, considering today, combined all the cash and accounts, the bank notes, we have almost $4.4 billion sitting in our accounts. Even though, let's say we're considering, I think Inner Mongolia Phase 5B, the 1,000 investments, that's maybe around, I think, $1.2 billion or $1.3 billion investments. We still have enough cash sitting there. The reason why, one is we are going to do in the future, and as a public company requirement to continue our distribution of the dividends. Second is, during the whole industry, I think a lower cycle, we are considering, you know, we really have a strong balance sheet to do consolidator.

I think that's our major purpose. Basically, our planning is for the next three years, we planning the capacity every year increase 50%. Just like this year, we already given guidance. I think our guidance is 129,000-132,000 metric tons. Next year, as you can see, our Inner Mongolia Phase 5A will be put into production. We believe, I think, maybe around 70,000 tons will come out next year, come out from Phase 5A. By the end of next year, the Phase 5A for the year 2024 definitely is 100,000 tons plus, Xinjiang 120,000-130,000 tons.

Total together is 230,000 tons. Plus , the Phase 5B, we are planning starting maybe certain time, depending on the board make decision. We are starting to do some prepare work. We are going to start, I think, the second half of this year. We will announce that.

Philip Shen
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Roth Capital Partners

Okay. Thank you. That's great color. Just to explore something you said earlier, Longgen Zhang. You talked about how you have a strong balance sheet to consolidate. Does that suggest that with some of your peers struggling to get the capacity online and efficient and low cost, are you open to potentially acquiring some facilities in addition to your greenfield, you know, Phase 5B and Phase 5A? Thanks.

Longgen Zhang
CEO, Daqo New Energy

Yes, definitely. I think, you know, first of all, based on our announcements, we will do the, I think, silicon metal, I think, in Inner Mongolia. We also. We're starting from, I think, the ore, I think, you know. From the ore to the industrial silicon then to the solar silicon. I think the whole product production upstream, I think, you know, to expansion, to show all products always from Inner Mongolia. That's first. I think, for all those productions right now expanding in Inner Mongolia, we will use around 60%-70% of green energy.

Philip Shen
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Roth Capital Partners

Got it. Okay.

Longgen Zhang
CEO, Daqo New Energy

Is that the question about the green energy?

Philip Shen
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Roth Capital Partners

No. I think, Longgen, it wasn't about green energy. It was about, do you prefer to, you know, could you consider acquiring other polysilicon projects that are struggling? Is that something that you're open to, or do you think you might to expand capacity, would you only do your own construction, or do you think you might actually go out and buy other facilities that are under. Well, that have started production but are struggling? Thanks.

Longgen Zhang
CEO, Daqo New Energy

Of course. It's only depend on, you know, in which situation, just like you said, you know. If some, you know, under, you know, the. What's it called?

Philip Shen
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Roth Capital Partners

Underperforming.

Longgen Zhang
CEO, Daqo New Energy

Underperformance or whatever you see the struggling assets, you know. Of course, we are ready. That's why we keep a strong financial, you know, balance, financial statements and balance sheets. Yes.

Philip Shen
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Roth Capital Partners

Great. Okay. Do you have a sense of timing as to when you could acquire another company's polysilicon assets?

Longgen Zhang
CEO, Daqo New Energy

We think the best time maybe, I think, you know, in 2024. Maybe you know second half of next year. It's no time schedule. Because right now, yes, we see, it's already see two products right now in China for selling, but the price is still too high.

Philip Shen
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Roth Capital Partners

Mm-hmm. Got it. Okay, great. One last question, I'll pass it on. As it relates to the Chinese government, you know, there have been some reports that maybe they get involved in the industry because the poly pricing is so high. What are your thoughts as to what they could do? Do you think that's actually possible? And what do you think happens next? Thanks.

Longgen Zhang
CEO, Daqo New Energy

I think the Chinese government is encouraged. I think a free market. Even last year, I think the price also is changed. The government never say, you know, come here, say, "Hey, you have to, you know, selling the products at certain price." I think in whole solar industry, you know, the value chain, I don't think the governments will do anything on the price side. You know, they only depend on the market, you know, how much the module price you can sell, right? Then the installation, even the state-owned company right now is step in the solar, I think, power, you know, plant. The field plant or, you know, the distributed plant.

I don't think, you know, the governments will put their nose in the private sector, even the market, you know, the free market. I don't believe. Even though some news there, I think all those news is, some is fake, some is, you know. I don't know, some people may be intending to do that.

Philip Shen
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Roth Capital Partners

Got it. Okay. Thank you for taking all my questions. I'll pass it on. Thanks.

Operator

The next question comes from Gary Zhou with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Gary Zhou
Director of Equity Research, Credit Suisse

Thank you for taking my questions, and congratulations on your very strong second quarter results. I have three questions. Firstly, I want to ask, so recently we have seen some of our polysilicon peers have signed long-term polysilicon supply contracts with some newcomers in the wafer industry. Just wondering if Daqo is also, you know, kind of in negotiation, I think, with some other wafer companies in terms of polysilicon contracts.

Longgen Zhang
CEO, Daqo New Energy

Okay. The first question is about the long-term contract with, you know, our downstream clients, the wafer producer. We starting actually, I think, you know, the year 2020. Basically, we see the price, polysilicon price will go up. That's why the, you know, we sign those long-term contracts. Daqo is differentiate from our peers. Basically, we sign the long-term contract in, like cover the year, is three years to five years long-term contracts. We locked the quantity, but we also not lock the price, but we also collect the deposits, high deposits. Starting year 2020, we collect starting from CNY 3.6 per kg, to right now is CNY 7.2 per kg.

If the wafer producer is not paid the down payments, we don't think the contracts have strong binding, the legal binding. That's why our policy, we stick to that. Today we have 9 long-term contracts with our strategic clients. We will continue to sign. We will announce another bigger one. We're different from other people. If you see the market right now, you see a lot of our peers. Those contracts, I'm not going to comment, okay? They may not receive any, even lower deposits. We still keep our principle. We have to collect a certain amount of deposits to keep the long-term contract effective. Gary?

Gary Zhou
Director of Equity Research, Credit Suisse

Yeah. Thank you. Yeah, thank you. This is very helpful. My second question is also on the kind of newcomers. I think recently, there's news that there's one company in Qinghai Province announced that they have like kind of commissioned their phase one polysilicon project. Just wondering, can management maybe share more on whether you believe those newcomers' kind of product can meet the industry standard and how. Also, second question u sually I think for us it usually only takes around two-three months to ramp up our capacity.

How long do you think it may, you know, take the newcomers to ramp up the capacity to full utilization?

Longgen Zhang
CEO, Daqo New Energy

We never comment, you know, our downstream, you know, clients. Basically, what you said is one of the clients is our clients. Their business is focused on, I think, modules and vertical capacity and sales. They announced big, I think, investments in Xining, Qinghai. We're not going to comment on whether they're going to really invest or not, whether they have the technology or not. Anyway, you know, a lot of people announced want to jump into the polysilicon, I think, production. Just like I said, because of polysilicon production, long-term investment, construction period, needed design and the equipment is made. Also, I think, you know, a lot of capital investments.

Technology with technology and people, it's not that easy to you know to jump into them to immediately I think ramp up the product. We're not you know to do any comments on that. Yes, I think today polysilicon production right now expansion have a lot of projects right now there. If you count right now, maybe more than 10, I think you know size of 50,000 metric tons production line is working on that. We don't know really how much you know will come out of real production capacity. As we know, like Daqo, like Tongwei, like Tebian, I think those three players, if they declare I think you know expansion the schedule, I think it's because they already proved I think their production, their quality and their scale.

I think maybe that will be true and believable. Otherwise, we're not going to do any comments because really a lot of uncertainty is there. That's why I think today the polysilicon price, a lot of people, you know, are projecting the polysilicon price, you know, to change maybe turn around, you know, in the near term. We consider it different, just like I mentioned that. We think, you know, the polysilicon price is positively related to module price. Within, I think one year or more, I don't think the price will go down. We think the price maybe will slightly go down in Q4 2023. It will really go back to maybe normal around CNY 120 in 2024. Thank you, Gary.

Gary Zhou
Director of Equity Research, Credit Suisse

Yeah. Thank you. Quickly on my last question, is on the share repurchase. Just wonder, want to ask if the company have any kind of guidance on what kind of share price range that they would consider, you know, do more share repurchase. And also, when I look at the company's number of shares in this first half, I saw that the number of shares actually increased a little bit. Just wondering why is that we are currently doing repurchase. Thank you.

Ming Yang
CFO, Daqo New Energy

Okay. Thank you, Gary. We have started our share repurchase program, and we have been repurchasing in the month of June and July and through the 10b5-1 program, for example. So far, I think as of today, we've repurchased approximately $50 million or so, and we will continue to repurchase in the coming months. Especially during the open window period that's coming up. And definitely, we think the current share price level certainly is extremely attractive. You know, you can see the company has almost $4.6 billion in capital and generating very healthy, okay, cash flow, and you have our market cap is effectively the same as how much the company has in terms of cash on hand.

Definitely, we will continue to purchase at the current price level, even at higher than the current level as well.

Longgen Zhang
CEO, Daqo New Energy

Gary, just let me know that because we are now, I think, you know, Xinjiang Daqo is in the A-share listing, so we will continue to declare the dividend policy. In the future, especially this year, high profit, we will distribute a high, I think, you know, quantity of, you know, capital dividends. We will continue to keep the repurchase program in order to protect the US shareholders. We're also considering, because of foreign accounting reporting act or a possible delisting in China concept stock, you know, the stock. We're considering the dual primary listing in Hong Kong Stock Exchange. We are considering that also. Thank you.

Gary Zhou
Director of Equity Research, Credit Suisse

Yeah. Thank you, Longgen Zhang and Ming Yang. I'll pass on. Thank you.

Ming Yang
CFO, Daqo New Energy

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Chao Ji with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Chao Ji
Senior Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. Can you please share your view for the cost trend for the coming third and fourth quarter? Also, when we ramp up our Phase 5A project, what kind of production cost or cost level that we could be looking for? Thank you.

Ming Yang
CFO, Daqo New Energy

Okay. Hello, Chao Ji. Thank you for your question about our cost. I think quarter-over-quarter for Q2 compared to Q1, you did see a 28% reduction in cost, where our current cost structure is about $7.26 per kilogram. The previous quarter in Q1 was about $10 per kilogram. I think a lot of this reduction is coming from a reduction in, for example, energy usage in terms of the utility, electricity and steam. Also, reduction in both our usage of silicon powder on a per unit basis, as well as a reduction in silicon powder pricing. We continue to see.

I think based on our cost trends in June and July, for example, we continue to see our cost to decline. For example, our June cost was below May, and then July cost is below June, as an example. Benefiting both from economies of scale and manufacturing efficiencies, as well as continued reduction in silicon metal costs in the market and in our procurement. Actually, we've taken the opportunity to purchase some additional silicon metal supply, you know, taking advantage of the current lower pricing. We would expect our Q3 costs to be lower than our Q2 costs in a beneficial trend. Q4, those are looking very positive.

Now for Inner Mongolia cost, we would think that because of the scale of Inner Mongolia in terms of manufacturing efficiency, it's a single 100,000 metric ton site and with a lower number of employees, as an example, compared to our Xinjiang site. It has a very competitive cost structure. We would think Inner Mongolia as a minimum would be about the same cost as our Phase 4B, I think, which generally is about 3%-5% lower than our overall average cost. We would think that Inner Mongolia will have even better cost than our Xinjiang output cost.

Longgen Zhang
CEO, Daqo New Energy

By the way, Inner Mongolia, we will produce our own silicon metal. I think we will be starting project this afternoon the board I think Inner Mongolia board make decision. We think you know our own silicon metal will produce maybe in the first half of next year. If we use our own silicon metal, I think the cash cost will be below CNY 30 per kg.

Chao Ji
Senior Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Oh, great. Thank you so much.

Ming Yang
CFO, Daqo New Energy

Thank you, Ji Chao.

Operator

Our next question comes from Alan Lau with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Alan Lau
VP of Equity Research, Jefferies

To my question, and congratulations to management on the record-breaking results again. My first question is a quick one in regard to what is the target dividend payout ratio? Because last year we had around 20%. What do you expect to be a reasonable payout ratio for this year?

Ming Yang
CFO, Daqo New Energy

Okay. First of all, I think, you know, I cannot give you the exact, I think, the target ratio. Basically, in the solar industry right now in Asia, I think, the ratio is around 20%-50%.

Longgen Zhang
CEO, Daqo New Energy

I think this year, 25% because we also doing the offering. We believe, I think, you know, the ratio in the future will between, I think 20%-30% or even 40%. It's based on the board, I think, make the decision.

Alan Lau
VP of Equity Research, Jefferies

Understood. Thanks a lot. Would you mind to share the progress on the plans, first of all, the Phase 5A and also the project in Xinjiang? Sorry, the Phase 5B project. Is there any approval or is the progress on the way?

Longgen Zhang
CEO, Daqo New Energy

Oh, you mean the Phase 5A. The Phase 5A right now I think is. Yeah. I think we're starting the design last year, October. I think really the field, I think, started because of land issue. We started in the, I think, June, July. Right now, I think all the equipment we design and order, we deliver to the sites during the August to September before the winter. Basically, we make a decision, I think, you know, we were starting, I think, the primary production in Q1, you know, make it Q4 to Q1. Ramp up in the Q2 of next year. Everything we're now on schedule. Then Phase two, you mean the Phase 5B.

Whenever possible, I think we're starting this year, maybe Q4. We're already starting all the design last week. Then also all the improvements, you know, application, we're already starting, I think, through the governments. Basically, we believe, I think, we can start in, I think, Q4 this year. Hopefully, we can start production by the end of next year or even early 2024.

Alan Lau
VP of Equity Research, Jefferies

Okay. Thank you. My last question here is about, in view of the N-type transition trend, and also heard just now, the management has mentioned there's some R&D cost in relation to N-type. Can you share with us, what is the development as of now? And like, what is the percentage of N-type product can the company offer in its like, existing plant and new plants?

Longgen Zhang
CEO, Daqo New Energy

I think N-type, I think, you know, silicon for Phase 5A, we can 100% manufacturing, I think, you know, annually, 100,000 tons. If we produce manufacturing P-type or maybe the capacity more than that, maybe you can reach to, I think, 110, even 120,000 tons. Today, in Xinjiang, right now, I think if we manufacture N-type, we can basically right now consider the equipment, the status, and the energy improvements. I think the technology improvements. We can produce 75% N-type polysilicon. The problem is right now, the N-type polysilicon, the market is not that big. Right now, only, I think one company right now put I think N-type production, I think 16 GW right now starting.

8 GW, I think last week and last month, this month, another 8 GW starting production. So, the demand is not too much. Every month right now, I think N-type right now we're selling around, I think, 800-1,000 metric tons. So, the price only $3, CNY 3 plus compared to the P-type polysilicon price. So, I don't think this year, N-type will account for, you know, too much, maybe around 5%-10% this year. Next year, maybe around, you know, 15%-25%. Really, I think P, transfer P to N, the technology still, I think, potentially, still take time.

At least take, I think, you know, 1 year and one and a half year to reach the cost-effective N-type cell production line, you know.

Alan Lau
VP of Equity Research, Jefferies

Understood. Thanks a lot. Once again, thank you for taking my questions and congratulations.

Ming Yang
CFO, Daqo New Energy

Great. Thank you, Alan.

Operator

Our next question comes from Rajiv Chaudhri with Samsara Capital. Please go ahead.

Rajiv Chaudhri
Founder and Managing Member, Sansara Capital

Congratulations, Longgen, on a great operational performance and great financial performance in the last quarter. I have a couple of questions. The first one is, what is the interest rate that you are getting on the cash that you have on the balance sheet? What do you expect it to be over time? Because obviously, you will have a lot more cash accumulating in the next several quarters.

Ming Yang
CFO, Daqo New Energy

Okay. I think because we're also an A-share listed company here in China, I think there is more restrictions on the type of bank deposits we could do or a higher yield investment product, which generally need to be what's considered principal protected or guaranteed by the issuing bank.

I would say generally that the current deposit rate is somewhere between 1.3% to about 2%. That's the current average interest rate we're receiving right now.

Rajiv Chaudhri
Founder and Managing Member, Sansara Capital

Okay. Secondly, on the share buyback, should we expect that next year as well, when you announce the dividends and the dividend payout ratio may be higher than the 20% that we had this year, that the share buyback will be the primary way that you will return cash to shareholders in that, who are listed in the United States, and it will not be a dividend, in other words?

Longgen Zhang
CEO, Daqo New Energy

I think, Rajiv I think it depends on, first of all, I think we will, you know, consistently do the dividend policy because based on the A-share company, they will do that. I think this dividend, I think declared percentage just, you know, targeted basically on the industry, basically on the, you know, I think, you know, the experience. I think it will be between the profit and net profit, attributable net profit, 20%-50%, you know, the range is there. Whether we continue going to do repurchase program or dividend to the U.S. shareholders, it depends on the U.S. capital market, right?

If, let's say, the market value is higher, for example, is like, let's say, 20 or whatever in the CNY 100 billion or CNY 200 billion, then we maybe declare dividends for the board, you know, considering. If the Daqo price, you know, the valuation is under, like today's situation, definitely we'll do the repurchase program. It all depends on market situation going. The valuation we consider.

Rajiv Chaudhri
Founder and Managing Member, Sansara Capital

Right. Thank you. That's very helpful. Finally, you mentioned the possibility of a Hong Kong listing. Is that a decision that has already been made? Are you thinking about it? Can you tell us more about what the timeline might be for such an action?

Longgen Zhang
CEO, Daqo New Energy

We are considering that. The reason is because, you know, it's possible, I think, as a U.S. foreign company reporting, it's possible, you know, the agreement is reached in time between the U.S. and China governments. In order to protect the U.S. shareholders, the board is already considering discussing this issue. We already do some study. I think we got the banker, the investment banking proposal. Yes, we'll consider seriously considering the dual primary listings in Hong Kong Stock Exchange. If we're going to take, the filing will take quickly. I think maybe around under six months we'll be done. Basically, yes, in the near future, we'll announce that.

Rajiv Chaudhri
Founder and Managing Member, Sansara Capital

Okay. Thank you very much.

Ming Yang
CFO, Daqo New Energy

Great. Thank you, Rajiv.

Operator

That concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Kevin He for any closing remarks.

Kevin He
Director of Investor Relations, Daqo New Energy

Thank you again everyone for attending today's conference call. Should you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to contact us. Thank you and bye-bye.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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