Hello, welcome to the Daqo New Energy fourth quarter and fiscal year 2016 results conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kevin He, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Hello, everyone. I'm Kevin He, the Investor Relations of Daqo New Energy. Thank you for joining our conference call today. Daqo New Energy just issued its financial results for the fourth quarter and the fiscal year of 2016, which can be found on our website at www.dqsolar.com. To facilitate today's conference call, we also have prepared a PPT presentation for your reference. Today, attending the conference call, we have Dr. Gongda Yao, our Chief Executive Officer, and Mr. Ming Yang, our Chief Financial Officer. The call today will feature an update from Dr. Yao on market and operations, and then Mr. Yang will discuss the company's financial performance for the fourth quarter and the fiscal year of 2016. After that, we will open the floor to Q&A from the audience.
Before we begin the formal remarks, I would like to remind you that certain statements on today's call, including expected future operational and financial performance and industry growth, are forward-looking statements that are made under the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in the reports or documents we have filed with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission. These statements only reflect our current and preliminary view as of today and may be subject to change. Our ability to achieve these projections is subject to risks and uncertainties.
All information provided in today's call is as of today. We undertake no duty to update such information except as required under applicable law. During the call, we will occasionally reference monetary amounts in US dollar terms. Please keep in mind that our functional currency is the Chinese RMB. We offer these translations into US dollars solely for the convenience of the audience. Without further ado, I now turn the call over to our CEO, Dr. Yao. Please.
Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. The fourth quarter of 2016 was an important milestone for Daqo New Energy. During the quarter, we successfully completed our annual maintenance work and the interconnections between our new facilities and existing facilities in Xinjiang at the same time. We also successfully completed all the construction installation work related to Phase 3A polysilicon expansion. As maintenance, construction, installation of new equipment and interconnection of the facilities we are conducting concurrently, our annual maintenance for 2016 took longer than usual to complete. The combination of these efforts allows us to start initial production of our expansion production capacity in January 2017, months ahead of our original schedule.
We have already reached full production through our throughput of 18,000 metric tons per annum by the end of February 2017. At our new production capacity of 18,000 metric tons a year, we are achieving significant economic scale, which we believe will allow us to achieve further manufacture efficiencies and cost savings. For example, when we were at 6,000 metric tons capacity, we had approximately 900 employees in Xinjiang. When we doubled our capacity to 12,000 metric tons a year, we had approximately 1,100 employees. Now that we reached about 18,000 metric tons capacity, we only have approximately 1,300 employees in Xinjiang.
Capacity per person more than doubled from 6.6 metric ton per person when we were at a 6,000 metric ton capacity to currently about 13.8 metric ton per person at 18,000 metric ton capacity with significant operational leverage and a reduction in per unit labor cost. At the same time, we implemented new technology upgrades and special projects that further improve energy efficiency. Based on initial production results, we are seeing encouraging savings in energy usage as well as silicon and raw material utilization. With the combination of these efforts in cost savings, we believe we can achieve our new cost target of about CNY 8.50 per kilo in average total production cost in Q1 and reduce it further throughout the year as we further optimize our production process.
During the fourth quarter of 2016, we saw robust demand for polysilicon products, and the strong momentum continued into the first quarter of 2017. Based on the industry forecast. The size of solar market was about 70 gigawatts in 2016, with demand from China and India exceeding expectations. The PV market is expecting to continue its growth in 2017, with the market size expecting to be 73-79 gigawatts for this year. In particular, the Indian PV market is expecting to grow from about 5-6 gigawatts in 2016 to more than 10 gigawatts in 2017. With the growing PV market and major downstream PV manufacturer continue to add capacities, this bodes well for continuous strong demand for the high-purity polysilicon products.
In particular, we are seeing a shift in industry trend with rising demand and increased manufacturer capacities for high-efficiency monocrystalline solar wafers and the solar cells. This has translates to increased demand for high-purity semiconductor-grade polysilicon, which only very few Chinese domestic manufacturers are able to supply. At Daqo New Energy, we are currently upgrade our distillation process and adding special device Siemens distillation system, which will further remove impurities and improve the quality of our polysilicon product. With our upgraded process high-purity products, Daqo New Energy is uniquely positioned to address the growing demand from the high-efficiency monocrystalline solar market. In terms of market demand, based on the feedback from our customers, we believe that orders and shipments of downstream PV module products are currently healthy and strong. We have witnessed strong orders and robust pricing for high-quality polysilicon products for our customers.
Despite our expanding capacities and product volume, customer demand is still exceeding our production volume. In fact, certain customers are now willing to pay prepayment so that they can take priority in product delivery. This is a testament of the both strong market demand and the high quality of our product. As a result, we expect in polysilicon ASP in the first quarter of 2017 will be higher as compared to the first quarter of 2016. We are also proud of the financial performance we achieved for the year of 2016.
In 2016, we had revenue of CNY 229 million, net income attributable to Daqo New Energy Corp. shareholders of CNY 43.5 million, and the earnings per basic ADS of CNY 4.15, all higher as compared to 2015. We generated non-GAAP EBITDA of CNY 99.3 million, and net cash provided by operation activities of CNY 98.7 million in 2016. The strong cash flow has allowed us to fund the complete current phase of capacity expansion without significantly increasing bank borrowings. Let me provide outlook for the first quarter of 2017.
With the successful initial production of Phase 3A capacity, the company expected polysilicon production volume will reach 4,300-4,500 metric ton in the first quarter of 2017. The company expects to sell about 3,800-4,000 metric ton of polysilicon to external customers during the first quarter of 2017, a record high for the company. The above external sales guidance excludes shipments of polysilicon to be used internally by our Chongqing solar wafer facility, which utilize polysilicon for its wafer manufacturing operation. Wafer sales volume is expected to be about 23.5 million-24 million pieces for the first quarter of 2017. Now I will turn the call to our CFO, Mr. Ming Yang, for the financial update.
Thank you, Dr. Yao, and good day, everyone. Thank you for attending our call today. Now I will provide the financial updates for the fourth quarter and fiscal year of 2016. Revenues were CNY 46.1 million, compared to CNY 54.3 million in the third quarter of 2016 and CNY 59.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2015. Revenue from polysilicon sales to external customers were CNY 32.8 million, compared to CNY 44.4 million in the third quarter of 2016 and CNY 42.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2015. External polysilicon sales volume were 2,209 metric ton, compared to 2,838 metric ton in the third quarter of 2016 and 3,092 metric ton in the fourth quarter of 2015.
The decrease in polysilicon revenue as compared to the third quarter of 2016 was primarily due to lower polysilicon sales volume and lower ASPs. The company successfully completed annual maintenance and several efficiency improvement projects, which affected polysilicon production for approximately three weeks during the fourth quarter of 2016. As a result, both of our polysilicon production volume and sales volume were lower in the fourth quarter of 2016 as compared to the third quarter of 2016. However, we successfully resumed production in November of 2016. Revenues from wafer sales were CNY 13.4 million, compared to CNY 9.9 million in the third quarter of 2016 and CNY 16.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2015.
Wafer sales volume was 21.3 million pieces compared to 14.4 million pieces in the third quarter of 2016 and 21 million pieces in the fourth quarter of 2015. The increase in wafer revenue from the third quarter was primarily due to higher sales volume offset by lower wafer ASP. Gross profit was approximately CNY 14.2 million compared to CNY 20.1 million in the third quarter of 2016 and CNY 16.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2015. Non-GAAP gross profit, which excludes costs related to the non-operational polysilicon assets in Chongqing, was approximately CNY 15.8 million compared to CNY 21.6 million in the third quarter of 2016 and CNY 18.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2015.
Gross margin was 30.7% compared to 37.1% in the third quarter of 2016 and 28.5% in the fourth quarter of 2015. The decrease in gross margin as compared to the third quarter of 2016 was primarily due to slightly lower quarterly polysilicon average selling prices and higher polysilicon production costs affected by annual maintenance, as well as lower quarterly wafer ASPs. In the fourth quarter of 2016, total costs related to non-operational Chongqing polysilicon assets, including depreciation, were CNY 1.6 million compared to CNY 1.5 million in the third quarter of 2016 and CNY 2 million in the fourth quarter of 2015.
Excluding such costs, the non-GAAP gross margin was approximately 34.2% compared to 39.9% in the third quarter of 2016 and 31.9% in the fourth quarter of 2015. Starting in the first quarter of 2017, we expect costs related to the non-operational Chongqing polysilicon assets, including depreciation, will be reduced to approximately $800,000 for the quarter, as a significant portion of the equipment has been reutilized in Xinjiang. Selling, general and administrative expenses were CNY 13.5 million compared to CNY 4.9 million in the third quarter of 2016 and CNY 2.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2015.
Research and development expenses were approximately CNY 2.8 million for the quarter, compared to CNY 1 million in the third quarter of 2016 and CNY 0.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2015. The increase in R&D expenses as compared to the third quarter of 2016 was primarily due to increased research and development activities and process upgrades for quality enhancement, increased manufacturing throughput, energy efficiency improvements and cost reduction. Other operating income was CNY 1.9 million compared to CNY 2.2 million in the third quarter of 2016 and CNY 1.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2015. Other operating income was mainly composed of unrestricted cash incentives that the company received from local government authorities, the amount of which varies from period to period.
The company recognized CNY 0.2 million and CNY 1.6 million in fixed asset impairment loss for its Chongqing polysilicon facility in the fourth quarter of 2016 and 2015, respectively. The company is currently in the process of relocating the company's temporarily idle polysilicon machinery and equipment in Chongqing to the company's Xinjiang polysilicon manufacturing facility and repurposing such assets. The impairment loss incurred was attributable to the identified relocation assets in Chongqing that were not transferable and could not be reutilised by Xinjiang polysilicon expansion project. Operating income was CNY 9.6 million compared to CNY 16.4 million in the third quarter of 2016 and CNY 14.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2015.
Operating margin was 20.7% compared to 30.3% in the third quarter of 2016 and 24.1% in the fourth quarter of 2015. Interest expense was CNY 4.1 million compared to CNY 3.1 million in the third quarter of 2016 and CNY 4.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2015. EBITDA was CNY 17.6 million compared to CNY 25 million in the third quarter of 2016 and CNY 23.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2015. EBITDA margin was 38.3% compared to 46% in the third quarter of 2016 and 39.5% in the fourth quarter of 2015.
Net income attributable to Daqo New Energy shareholders was CNY 4.1 million compared to CNY 11.2 million in the third quarter of 2016 and CNY 9.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2015. Earnings per basic ADS were $0.39 compared to $1.07 in the third quarter of 2016 and $0.92 in the fourth quarter of 2015. As of December 31, 2016, the company had CNY 31.9 million in cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash compared to CNY 29.2 million as of September 30, 2016. As of December 31, 2016, the accounts receivable balance was CNY 4.8 million compared to CNY 4.6 million as of September 30, 2016.
As of December 31st, 2016, the notes receivable balance was CNY 13 million compared to CNY 17 million as of September 30th, 2016. As of December 31st, 2016, total borrowings were CNY 217.9 million, of which CNY 111.9 million were long-term borrowings, compared to total borrowing of CNY 227.6 million, including CNY 129 million of long-term borrowings as of September 30th, 2016. For the 12 months ended December 31st, 2016, net cash provided by operating activities were CNY 98.7 million, an increase of 48.6% from CNY 66.4 million in the same period of 2015.
For the 12 months ended December 31st, 2016, net cash used in investing activities was CNY 66.1 million, compared to CNY 74.1 million in the same period of 2015. The net cash used in investing activities in 2015 and 2016 was primarily related to the CapEx of Xinjiang Phase 2B and Phase 3A polysilicon projects. For the 12 months ended December 31st, 2016, net cash used in financing activities was CNY 30.3 million, compared to net cash provided by financing activities of CNY 15.2 million in the same period of 2015. The net cash used in financing activities in 2016 primarily consists of repayment of related party loans and bank borrowings.
The net cash provided by financing activities in 2015 was primarily contributed by the net proceeds from the company's follow-on offering in February 2015 and net bank loan borrowings. Now we will discuss full year 2016 results. For the full year of 2016, revenues were CNY 229 million, an increase of 26% from CNY 182 million in 2015. Revenue from polysilicon sales to external customers were CNY 167.5 million in 2016, an increase of 33% from CNY 125.9 million in 2015. In the third quarter of 2015, we successfully ramped up our Phase 2B expansion project, which increased our annual capacity from 6,150 metric tons to 12,150 metric tons.
During the whole year of 2016, we were running our Xinjiang polysilicon facilities at full capacity. As a result, our annual polysilicon production volume increased by 33.7% from 9,771 metric ton in 2015 to 13,058 metric ton in 2016. Our external polysilicon sales volume increased by 32.2% from 8,234 metric ton in 2015 to 10,883 metric ton in 2016. In addition, our annual polysilicon average selling prices also improved slightly from $15.29 per kilogram in 2015 to $15.42 per kilogram in 2016. Revenues from wafer sales were $61.6 million in 2016, an increase of 9.7% from $56.1 million in 2015.
Wafer sales volume was 82.8 million pieces, an increase of 8.3% from 76.4 million pieces in 2015. The increase in wafer revenue as compared to 2015 was primarily due to higher sales volume. Gross profit was CNY 80.4 million in 2016, an increase of 114% from CNY 37.6 million in 2015. Gross margin was 35.1% in 2016. It increased from 20.6% in 2015. The improvement in gross profit and gross margin was primarily attributable to our polysilicon segment. In 2016, gross profit of our polysilicon segment excludes costs related to the Chongqing idle polysilicon facilities was CNY 78.2 million, an increase of 100% from CNY 38.9 million in 2015.
Gross margin of our polysilicon segment was 46.7%, an increase from 30.9% in 2015. The increase in polysilicon growth profit and gross margin was primarily due to higher sales volume and significant improvement in our polysilicon cost structure. We sold 10,883 metric ton of polysilicon in 2016, an increase of 32.2% from 8,234 metric ton in 2015. Our annual average polysilicon total production cost decreased by 18% from CNY 11.23 per kilogram in 2015 to CNY 9.23 per kilogram in 2016. In 2016, gross profit of our wafer sector was CNY 9.2 million, a decrease from CNY 9.4 million in 2015.
Gross margin of our wafer sector was 14.9% compared to 16.7% in 2015. In 2016, total costs related to the non-operational Chongqing polysilicon plant, including depreciation, were CNY 6.9 million, a decrease from CNY 10.7 million in 2015. Excluding such costs, the non-GAAP gross margin was approximately 38.1% in 2016, an increase from 26.5% in 2015. Selling, general and administrative expenses were CNY 16.1 million in 2016 compared to CNY 12.6 million in 2015.
The increase in selling, general and administrative expenses was primarily due to increased shipping costs as a result of higher polysilicon shipping volume as well as higher relocation and moving expenses related to relocating the company's idle polysilicon manufacturing machinery and equipment from Chongqing to Xinjiang, which amounted to $2.6 million in 2016. Research and development expenses were $4 million in 2016 compared to $0.9 million in 2015. The increase in research and development expenses primarily resulted from continuous R&D activities for improvement in manufacturing efficiency and cost reduction. Other operating income was $1.3 million in 2016 compared to $3.8 million in 2015, which mainly consists of unrestricted cash incentives that we received from local government authorities, which varies from period to period at the discretion of the government.
Operating income was CNY 65.4 million in 2016, an increase of 150% from CNY 26.2 million in 2015. Operating margin was 28.6% in 2016, increase from 14.4% in 2015. Interest expense was CNY 14.6 million in 2016 compared to CNY 13.2 million in 2015. Income tax expense were CNY 7.4 million in 2016 compared to CNY 1.1 million in 2015. Net income attributable to Daqo New Energy shareholders were CNY 43.5 million in 2016, an increase of 237% from CNY 13 million in 2015. Earnings per basic ADS were $4.15 in 2016, an increase of 229% from $1.26 in 2015.
That concludes the official part of our presentation. Now let's have the Q&A session.
We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your questions, please press star, then two. At this time we will pause momentarily to asssemble our roster. Our first question comes from Philip Shen of Roth Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. My first one is on prepayments. You talked about them in your remarks. Can you talk about the magnitude of the prepayments and whether you expect them to continue ahead?
Hi, Phil. This is Ming. Total prepayments, I think, were approximately CNY 7.5 million As of December 31, 2016. These were advanced payments that were made by customers so that they could take priority delivery of our polysilicon, particularly the higher quality semi-grade level polysilicon because those are really in shortage right now.
Okay. Do you expect that trend to continue? Do you expect the prepayments to increase as we go through the first part of the year or decrease?
We think the trend should continue, and it may increase from this level, but maybe not significantly.
Okay. Can you update us on what your customer list looks like now? How much has it shifted? Can you talk about, what your customer concentration levels, or just the customer concentration expectations for 2017?
T he main customers are primarily the largest solar module manufacturers within China. I mean, you can think of, like, JA Solar, Trina, Jinko, Canadian Solar, as a number of leading solar wafer manufacturers within China as well. In particular, I think we're adding a number of the monocrystalline solar wafer and solar cell manufacturers within China for the higher efficiency type of solar products. These are the new customers that we're getting right now.
Great. Would that include LONGi, for example?
Yeah. Yes.
Okay, great. From a cost standpoint, I think you talked about hitting $8.50 all-in cost in Q1. H istorically you've talked about reaching less than $8.50 per kilogram for the full year all-in cost in 2017. What's the latest view on how low that cost structure could go in 2017?
T he average will be between $8-$8.50 for whole year, b ut , I think by end of 2017, we expecting is like something between $8-$8.50. Because we have still have a significant project needed to be finished, will be installed probably approximately by July. If that's successful, I think we have a chance to step functionally reduce the cost again, but with this, with that and also we have a continuous program to reduce our costs.
As usual, we have high confidence that we will finally approach by Q4, hopefully we'll achieve the cost very close to CNY 8.
Great. Thanks, Gongda Yao. Then one more from me, and I'll jump in the queue. You know, in terms of Korea, there's been talk about, potentially new tariffs or tariffs being increased on certain Korean companies. Can you just update us on, you know, how much those tariff increases could be? Do you have a sense for what the timing might be of those actions?
We think that this will not happening in the first half. Most likely we'll have the second half. The amount definitely we cannot, we don't know. This is by the fact that government were found the sales price versus their cost structures. Those are highly confidential. N ormally the government require those company provide to the government, we don't see those materials. Therefore, we don't have that number in mind. I think conclusion would be most likely we deliver on the second half of this year.
Okay, great. Thank you, Ming. I'll jump back into you.
Thank you, Phil.
Thank you, Phil.
The next question comes from Brad Meikle of Craig-Hallum. Please go ahead.
Hey, good evening, guys. What's your view on pricing for the year for silicon pricing?
For the year, right? Yeah,
Yeah, first quarter and in the year.
The fourth quarter is as Ming said, is slightly higher than in Q4 of 2016. We believe Q1 is that it, because we have pretty much have orders for March is done. We can say that for sure, almost. Delivery is not done, still have some uncertainty there. For the second quarter, we don't see as of today, we don't see significant reduction prices yet. I think it will continue. Of course, always, we need to be cautious as we put some if you want. In the second half of the year, we see there's some signal, a lot of people saying the downstream demand and delivery will be slower.
We expecting maybe some price change at that point. That's , forward-looking, so there's a lot of uncertainty with it.
To, like, $17 for the first quarter and then coming down to 15, 16 in the second half or?
Yeah, yeah. Probably.
Yeah. Probably.
That's like that. Of course, those in the forward looking always not accurate, so the market changes so much.
Mm-hmm.
How much silicon supply do you think is coming along online from, you know, incumbents and, you know, new market entrants?
New add capacity is not much in the Q1 and the Q2. We don't believe any significant add on new capacity. We did add about 6,000 metric ton to the line for Q1. We expecting maybe some add on new capacity will come on the second half of 2017.
Right. What's your broader view? I mean, I guess you're estimating 10% demand growth globally from a solar standpoint. What's your view on supply growth overall for this year? How much do you think it grows versus last year and also 2018?
Yeah. We believe the growth is not much. Even we say it's going to 73 to about 79 gigawatts. Even the major change right now, we see the shift from multicrystalline wafer to monocrystal wafers. We starting program about in 2015 and trying to adjust the market. We have already shipped significant amount to those customers. There are some qualifications still going out for some key customers. We expecting those kind of shipment will increasing, b ecause as we said, those demand it require is high quality compared with multicrystalline wafer user polysilicon. We normally say high purity of polysilicon to meet those demands.
This demand, this portion of demand increasing will strengthen the Daqo New Energy position in the polysilicon market because we can provide a significant amount of our product to meet the market.
What portion of your output would be high enough purity that would be acceptable for a mono wafer? What do you expect your CapEx to be for the year? Can you talk about what you have to do for the CapEx and how long it takes in order to upgrade output to be of the purity acceptable for a mono wafer?
Yeah. We expecting 2017, we have more than 50% can do that to provide the market. The CapEx maybe Ming give.
CapEx for the full year is approximately CNY 40 million-CNY 45 million for 2017. A portion of that is going to projects that are specifically designed to improve purity of our product. For example, we're upgrading our distillation system. You know, there are special devices that remove impurity from the distillation.
Can you get to 100%, you know, acceptable for purity for the mono output?
Yeah. Yeah. I think, we think over time, as we implement additional projects-
Yeah.
T he CapEx is used for, Improve the further improve our quality of polysilicon also, and some area we need to add more efficiency to our production. You know, either reduce cost or maybe slightly increase, solve some debottlenecking of in the production line. Our, you know, our output will start to improvement upon that. We expecting those things will be done by in the middle of this year, so we will see some good results in the second half.
Thanks very much. Can I just ask one last high-level question? What would be the company's view? O bviously, there's It's still early in this silicon cycle, and there seems to be a lot of migration upstream in terms of investment, is the company open to some type of merger with a downstream partner at some point? Or is it the view that the company would always be, you know, independent? Because it seems like strategically that could make sense given where the cycle's at.
Well, company didn't propose any of those kind of things to us, so that we also didn't receive any of those proposals at this moment. We are open minds to any good suggestions. Of course, those are subjected to the our board of members instead of our management team. If we see such opportunity, we will forward to board members.
Yes. We will be open to discussions. Yes.
The next question.
Hello?
The next question-
Sorry, go ahead.
Comes from, Sheng Zhong of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thank you for taking my question. The first one is, you mentioned that you are relocating some Chongqing equipment from Chongqing to Xinjiang. Should we expect some capacity increase in some time in near term?
That's actually related to our existing phase, the 18,000 metric ton. As we move a significant amount of equipment. Part of that expansion, we moved the equipment from Chongqing to Xinjiang. When that started operation in manufacturing in Q1, the related costs in that related to the idle facility will come down.
Yeah. Depreciation from idle equipment or facility in Chongqing were reduced by half.
Yeah, okay.
From Q1, from last Q4 to Q1 this year. Because those equipment already moved and also installed in Xinjiang.
Xinjiang
Participating, production right now.
Okay. Yeah, I see. Do you have any further capacity expansion plan at current stage?
We do have a plan, but we are not immediately started that phase. We will see the silicon, polysilicon, you know, the whole, total demand. T here are still a lot of struggling, up for the our competitors in, within China. We will see that. Probably, we will see until like middle of this year, we will decide to go forward or not. At this moment, we are not making any decision yet.
Understand. Yeah, as you mentioned that, we are still waiting to see the market dynamics. Actually, back to our question or back to our discussion, previously on the monocrystalline demand.
Actually, we see a lot of mono wafer capacity is being constructed this year.
Yes. Yeah.
From all the leading, yeah, all the leading wafer and module makers.
Yeah.
Actually the high purity polysilicon is from the market, especially from the Chinese makers, it's not that much.
Yes.
How do you i f we think about the import perspective, I think the amount is still, I don't expect a large increase from the import, but you can correct me.
No.
How do you see the-
You are right.
Good, thanks. How do you see the supply-demand balance for the high, and I mean high purity polysilicon in China market?
Well, it would be, those facility you mentioned in increased will take some time. We think probably will significant of volume increasing will be later this year. We have I have confidence, so by end of 2017, most of product will meet the purity demand for mono wafers usage. Now, it's only up to certain other things like morphology and also the condition when you harvest those polysilicon will meet or not. We're trying to become a leading provider for mono wafer silicon for Chinese market. With that probably is not enough, but even we decide the expansion right now. They normally take one and a half year completion.
There will be slow transition. I think it would not be very quicker transition from multicrystalline wafer for mono wafers. It is happening like you mentioned before. I think this trend is real, and I think will impact a lot of not only wafer manufacturers, although some polysilicon manufacturers in China as well, if they cannot provide high purity polysilicon in future. Now, how to balance that? I cannot say, but I think what we can do or we think about to do is continue our improvement for high purity polysilicon, and we try to increase that portion from right now is like half to 80%, 90%.
We position ourself as well in this kind of transition. That's all we can do. If market is still good after first half and very few people cannot provide, and we would, we will closely work with our key customer for monocrystal wafer manufacturers in China. Maybe we can consider for future expansion. Again, that will take almost like one and a half year, and it's longer than the wafer guys expansion.
Shen, let me follow up on Dr. Yao's comment. If you just look at it from the supply side, the amount of product availability that you could see from overseas suppliers like Germany and Korea are pretty much fixed. You're looking at a very high risk of Korean supply being significantly shut off because of the trade issues with China right now. At the same time, there's very limited amount of poly, of the semi-grade poly available within China. I think we're gonna be the only major supplier right now. If you look at from demand side, right now it's already very tight. I think we have much more demand than we could supply for this type of polysilicon.
Going to the second half, with all these new capacities coming online that requires these type of semi-grade poly. TI think, you know, the supply could get much worse than the current situation right now. That's what we're looking at right now. Okay, thanks.
Thanks very much for the color. Since there is a very high demand, except for the prepayment we currently see, do we think that this, these kinds of demand will drive the price difference between the mono grade polysilicon versus the common ones?
Let me try to answer. Currently, we don't see much. The gap is very small. Within this phenomena we discussed just before, with the huge amount mono wafer manufacturer capacity and compare with the very limited Chinese polysilicon manufacturer can make the products to meet that. I expecting, if this trend continue, mono wafer price gap between mono wafer and multicrystalline wafer gap will increasing. Secondly, polysilicon, if we can qualify for a mono wafer, it will slightly higher. Starting that trend with the gap between them will increasing. Right now is almost nothing because right now we are in position, is qualified for those things in 2007, 2016.
Basically, right now prices is similar, but the future, there's a possibility its gap will increasing. Push the, that ourself, we're driving more people interesting for moving to a monocrystal wafer provide, silicon provider, as in China as well. That's probably what happening in the second half, but not right now.
Okay. Thank you. My last question is about the, do we have any updates on the New Third Board financing?
We're still in discussions, with several domestic investors on New Third Board financing, but there's been no new update on that right now. We continue to be in discussion currently.
Okay. Yeah. Thanks. Thanks. Thanks, Mr. Yao.
Thank you, Sheng Zhong.
The next question comes from Paul Strigler of Esplanade. Please go ahead.
Good evening, guys. The EU just extended their minimum import price agreement for 18 months on Chinese imports. Is there a chance that China changes the agreement with the German polysilicon makers in terms of, what's the minimum import price for them into China? Maybe restrictions on volume? I just heard some rumblings about that, could you guys comment anything about European polysilicon and some sort of limitations on import?
Yeah, we have no comments because we are not aware any agreement between them, even the before the minimum import price, what exactly people are guessing, but nobody knows. Yeah, it did so far I think that the probably will continue, I think because it's European market to Chinese, both governments and they trying to get the agreement among them. I think that there's no reason. We don't see much will change, that's all we can say about it. Yeah. We don't have much comments about that. We think, we think the trend is normal. I think, probably most likely will continue that kind of arrangement. Yeah.
Just Y ou can't comment, but just to confirm the agreement between China and Europe on polysilicon that expires on April 30th of this year. Is that correct?
Oh, the expire the April 30th. I'm not sure. We can check that.
Yeah. I'll follow up with Ming Yang.
Yeah, yeah. We can Kevin can check that and get back to you.
Great. Thanks, guys.
Great. Thank you.
The next question is a follow-up from Brad Meikle of Craig-Hallum. Please go ahead.
It's Brad Meikle. Thanks. Can you just step back? I mean, we had a decade where there was sort of incessant polysilicon expansion. Now it seems like the balance sheets of most of the players are fairly tapped out, and GCL told us six months ago they don't really plan to add any more silicon capacity. I guess there's a possible expansion or greenfield by East Hope Group. Can you just talk about how much actual real capacity you think is coming online over the next three years and whether you agree with the view that, you know, we're moving to more of a balance, to sellers type of market after, you know, really probably eight years of, fairly aggressive expansion, especially by GCL. Thanks.
W hat that does to sort of the longer term balance and, you know, does pricing go back to $12 in 2018 or do you feel like we're more sustainably in a realm when you can make a consistent margin? Thank you.
Brad Meikle, I thank you for your question. I think if you look at the current market conditions right now, I think you're no longer seeing any significant capacity expansions by incumbents, right? I think, you know, we are adding capacity. We just added some, you know, we're now taking a more prudent approach and looking at how the market might play out and, you know, before we announce our next phase of expansion. We think that's very similar condition for almost majority of our competitors. I think any new capacity that you see are being added or have been added, say, over the past 12 months, probably was announced a long time ago, right?
A significant portion of capacity that are coming online right now, some of it in the U.S., you know, cannot even be imported into China. I think some of what people are talking about, like you said, New Hope, I think that's a completely new player with no experience in polysilicon. W e checked on some of the equipment they're buying. Some of our unproven equipment have never been actively used in polysilicon production in the past. You know, with that third type of experience within, they're gonna have a significant amount of challenge in trying to ramp up their facility. There's also other players within China trying to ramp up new technologies that's also completely unproven for polysilicon manufacturing.
We think it's a very likely outcome. I think there's going to be a lot less new production, coming into the market than people are thinking. From that perspective, I think definitely it's a lot more balanced market right now. You know, for essentially the past, say 18 months, we have seen a fairly tightly supplied market for polysilicon. With much more prudent investment from the incumbents. You know, incumbents now know that, it's a very challenging market for why everybody wants to add capacity at the same time. I mean, a lot of players, even at today's pricing, they're not very profitable. It's not easy.
W e're very uniquely positioned in this market because of our low cost structure.
Thanks. J ust last question is, I get you guys having over CNY 100 million of free cash flow this year. I mean, would you ever pay a dividend or return cash to stockholders or buy back stock?
That's something that we're actively considering. Right now, I think last year we actually generated free cash flow, and we decided to pay down some of our bank debt. I think this year, I think in the second half , certainly I think we think, you know, our cash flow will most likely improve upon versus 2016. Certainly we think dividend or returning cash to the shareholder is something that we would actively consider and explore.
Excellent. Thank you. We'd love to see more Chinese companies in the solar business thinking that way. Appreciate your time.
Great. Thanks, Brad.
The next question is a follow-up from Philip Shen of Roth Capital. Please go ahead.
Hey, thanks for the follow-ups. Just a few housekeeping questions. You know, when you think about your wafer margins, how do you expect them to trend? Like, what were they in Q4, and how do you see them trending in Q1 and beyond?
Would be flat, as of Q4.
It's roughly-
As Q4, we don't see much change.
Roughly breakeven. All the gross profit and gross margin is contributed by our polysilicon business.
Okay. You see that kind of breakeven scenario going forward as well?
Yes, yes.
Right. We don't really see much change.
Okay. Your R&D in the quarter was pretty high at CNY 2.8 million. What do you see ahead for, you know, in Q1 for R&D and beyond?
We think for the full year 2017, maybe something between CNY 3 million-CNY 5 million, full year 2017. I think you can just kind of, you know, divide that by 4 per quarter. There might be some period, you know, fluctuate from period to period, but we think for the full year it should run into that range.
T hat's pretty high for, you know, big change relative to what you guys have spent historically on R&D.
Yes, yes.
I read what you guys had in your release about R&D. Can you just comment a bit more on, you know, the rationale for the spending and what your plans are or the goals of that spending? Thanks.
The R&D expense for Q4 was a bit unique in terms of because we had concurrent maintenance, so it was a kind of like a perfect timing to do the R&D activities and install new projects and equipment at that same time. Especially as we prepare for our new capacity expansion as well. These new R&D projects can be used for the entire 18,000 ton capacity. That was a little bit unique in terms of timing. That's how we decided to spend the R&D efforts within the quarter. I think, going forward, it's less likely we're gonna see a big one-time event like that.
Okay. I guess my question is, historically, your R&D has been about CNY 1 million or CNY 1.5 million a year, and you're looking at CNY 3 million-CNY 5 million for 2017. Just curious, the rationale for that increase for the full year 2017.
Well, I think for 2016, the full year is now CNY 4 million, right? It's because we're doing projects one is to improve the purity, right? Improve the quality and improve the amount of the percentage of polysilicon we could do for semi-grade. That requires R&D. At the same time, we're also doing special projects for cost reduction, right?
We're doing improving throughput, some debottlenecking. You know, we're doing, for example, cost reduction efforts, like that lowers energy usage.
Okay, great.
All these are we doing.
Thanks, Ming.
Okay. Okay. Thank you.
This concludes the question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Kevin He for any closing remarks.
Thank you everyone again for joining the call today. Should you have any further questions, please feel free to contact us. Thank you and bye-bye.
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines. Have a great day.