Earnings Call: Q2 2010

Aug 3, 2010

Day, everyone, and welcome to the Duke Energy Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Stephen DeMay, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead, sir. Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Duke Energy's Q2 2010 earnings review. Leading our discussion today are Jim Rogers, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer and Lynn Goode, Group Executive and Chief Financial Officer. Jim and Lynn will begin the call with prepared remarks that review our Q2 results and discuss the outlook for the remainder of 2010, and then we will open the lines for your questions. Note that the appendix to the presentation materials includes additional disclosures to help you analyze the company's performance. Today's discussion will include forward looking information and the use of non GAAP financial measures. You should refer to the information in our 2,009 10 ks and other SEC filings concerning factors that could cause future results to differ from this forward looking information. A reconciliation of non GAAP financial measures can be found on our website and in today's materials. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jim Rogers. Thank you, Stephen. Good morning, everyone, and thank you all for joining us today. We appreciate your interest and investment in Duke Duke Energy. I'll start with the bottom line for the quarter. It was an excellent quarter. The economy is showing signs of improvement, the weather was hot, and our team's performance was excellent. As you saw in our news release this morning, we announced adjusted diluted earnings per share of 10 31%. On a weather normalized basis, the quarter over quarter increase was approximately 20 percent. Our reported results for Q2 of 2010 also included noncash charges of $500,000,000 reflecting the write off of the remaining goodwill related to our Midwest non regulated generation fleet and $160,000,000 related to the impairment of certain non regulated unscrubbed units in the Midwest. Lynn will discuss these charges in more detail during her These charges resulted in reported diluted net loss per share for 2nd quarter dollars compared to reported diluted earnings per share of 0 point me highlight 3 of the more significant drivers of our results this quarter. 1st, higher revenues from our base rate increases approved in 'nine in North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio and Kentucky. 2nd, favorable weather. We experienced above normal temperatures in all 5 of our regulated jurisdictions during the Q2, and in the Carolinas, we experienced the hottest June on record. 3rd, signs of economic recovery. During the quarter, we realized increased weather normalized sales volumes, mostly due to improved industrial sales. We will continue to remain cautiously optimistic about the future. Lynn will provide more color around sales volumes and our outlook for the latter half of twenty ten in her presentation. I want to highlight that our employees delivered Similarly, our fossil fleet had a commercial availability of approximately 87% on a year to date basis. In the latest J. D. Power and Associates annual customer satisfaction survey, Duke Energy Carolina ranked number 1 in the South. This demonstrates our commitment to providing outstanding customer service. Our strong operational performance in the first half of the year has us on target to achieve our operational metrics for 20 10. Based upon our results today, supported by favorable weather and stronger than expected weather normalized retail volumes, we are increasing our 2010 adjusted diluted EPS outlook range from $1.25 to $1.30 per share to $1.30 to $1.35 per share. Before I turn the call over to Lynn, I want to say that I am very pleased with where we are through June 2010, and I'm very proud of the performance of our employees who have remained focused on our objective to safely me now ask Lynn to provide more details around our 2nd quarter results. Thank you, Jim, and thank you for joining us. Let me begin with an overview of our financial performance. As you can see in the table on Slide 4, our total adjusted segment EBIT increased approximately $175,000,000 when compared with the Q2 of last year. Results for all of our business segments taken as a whole were higher than our expectations, principally driven by favorable weather and strong industrial sales. The competitive environment in Ohio continues to be challenging, but we have been successful in executing on our plans to defend margins in that business. Let me quickly review the significant drivers of results of each of our business segments. Adjusted segment EBIT for U. S. Franchise electric and gas, our largest segment, increased $171,000,000 over the prior year quarter. Approximately $70,000,000 of this increase was due to the impact the of prudently incurred utility investments and will continue to positively impact results in future periods. Another Another $56,000,000 was the result of unusually warm weather. Weather impacts were driven by above normal temperatures in all five of our service territories throughout the quarter. In the Carolinas and Midwest, cooling degree days were approximately 50% above normal. Other positive drivers to the segment's results were higher allowance for funds used during construction from Duke Energy's ongoing construction program and increased weather adjusted volumes, most notably in the industrial sector. Partially offsetting the increases to the segment's adjusted EBIT were higher operation and maintenance costs, primarily due to the timing of planned outages. And in our commercial power segment, customer switching and competition continue to highlight the market in Ohio, resulting in lower adjusted EBIT of approximately 20 $5,000,000 versus the Q2 of 2019. Despite lower results, to date, Duke Energy our competitive retail arm, has acquired approximately 60% of Duke Energy Ohio's switched customers. Other drivers affected Commercial Power's results as well. These included higher O and M costs resulting from an arbitration decision, lower gains from coal sales and the 2,009 deferral of operation and maintenance costs at the Becture plant under our electric security plan. Fired fleet, which for 20 fired fleet, which for 2010 is on track to exceed the level of adjusted segment EBIT, which was experienced in take a few moments to discuss the non cash impairment charges related to goodwill and certain unscrubbed units in Ohio. You will recall that similar charges were recorded in the Q3 of 2,009 as a result of depressed current and forward power prices and reduced customer load due to the recession. Customer switching has also continued to increase from approximately 30% at September 30, 2009 to approximately 56% at June 30, 2010. As well, power prices are projected to remain low through the next several years, impacting our evaluation of possible outcomes from our upcoming ESP extension in Ohio. In addition, we have more clarity around proposed environmental regulations from the EPA and expect further environmental regulations in in final form, these regulations are expected to result in significant capital and O and M expenditures for the affected coal fired generation plants or the shutdown of certain units. In light of these uncertainties, we wrote off the remaining amount of goodwill associated with the non regulated $60,000,000 Returning now to a review of our segment CAD 660 1,000,000 Returning now to a review of our segment drivers, adjusted segment EBIT for international increased CAD 32 1,000,000 over Q2 2019. The primary drivers of this increase include favorable foreign exchange rates, favorable hydrology in Brazil, and an increased contribution from national Methanol, principally due to higher commodity prices. Finally, 2 additional drivers impacted our overall results. The first was an increase in interest expense of approximately 20 $6,000,000 due to higher debt balances resulting from planned financing of our capital expansion program. The second, a positive driver, was a decrease in the adjusted effective tax rate from 36% in the Q2 of 2,009 mentioned, segments, please refer to the appendix. As Jim and I previously mentioned, weather was a significant contributor to our results for the 2nd quarter. But more importantly, the quarter also saw positive trends in weather normalized sales, most notably to our industrial class of customers. For the Q2 in a row, we experienced an increase in overall sales volumes compared to the same periods in 2 1009. Our weather normalized electric volumes rose approximately 3.6% this quarter, primarily driven by increased industrial sales activity. On a weather normalized basis, commercial volumes were essentially flat, which we attribute to the fact that this class tends to lag the overall economy. In the residential sector, traditionally a very stable class, normalized volumes were also flat compared to the the seeing modest residential customer growth in both the Carolinas and the Midwest, and we remain optimistic that residential customer sales will see growth in the future. Although we are pleased by these volume trends, we must carefully consider how to factor them into our outlook. As we entered 2010, you will recall that we expected a slow economic recovery and forecasted overall weather normalized load growth to be flat to 2,009. We had a good reason to feel that way. Our largest industrial customers were cautious in their outlooks and the unemployment rate in each of our state jurisdictions had climbed to levels that did not support historical levels of sales growth. Despite improved sales for each of the last two quarters, certain macroeconomic indicators cause us to remain cautious in our outlook. Double digit unemployment levels above the national average persist in all of our service territories. Single family building permits, though somewhat stabilized, are also at historical ten is expected to be consistent with the first half, Balancing all of these factors and weighing them against our recent experience, our outlook for 20 10 now includes an approximate 2% increase in average weather adjusted retail sales volumes for the full year versus 2,009, with the increase largely coming from our industrial customer class. Through the Q2, volumes have increased approximately 3% over 2,009. Industrial activity began in the second half of two thousand and nine. Let's move on to competition in Ohio. As of June 30, the gross switching switching rate of our Ohio customer load was around 56%, while the net switching rate, net of load acquired by Duke Energy Retail Sales, was about 23%. These are in line with our expectations. Our outlook for the full year includes a gross switching level that is at the top end of the average 50% to 55% range we communicated to you after the Q1. We expect the financial impact to be at the upper end of the negative 0 point 0 $4 to 0 point 0 $7 EPS range we provided at February analyst meeting. As expected, the focus of customer switching in Ohio has moved from our industrial customers and to a lesser extent, our commercial customers to the residential class. This shift toward residential switching is being met by our retail our retail strategy at Duke Energy Retail Sales. As government aggregation efforts and individual mass marketing efforts have increased, Duke Energy Retail sales has aggressively pursued current Duke Energy Ohio ESP customers that are at significant risk of switching to other providers. One measure of our success is the fact that Duke Energy retail sales acquired around 80% to 90% of individual residential customers who switched from Duke Energy Ohio during the Q2. In part due to the success of our retail strategy, commercial power remains on track to achieve its 20 10 estimated adjusted segment EBIT of $315,000,000 Our Ohio strategy for 20 10 is mostly one of blocking and tackling with an emphasis on Duke Energy retail sales aggressively acquiring customers who leave Duke Energy Ohio's ESP rate structure and selectively acquiring Ohio based load from outside our service territory. At the same time, we are considering how to best position our Ohio business for the near and longer term. As you know, the current ESP expires at the end of 2011, and we are currently evaluating various strategic plans to carry us into 2012 and beyond. As a first step, we expect to make an initial filing with the Ohio Commission by the end of this year. This will give us sufficient time to negotiate a new plan that will be constructive for both Duke Energy Ohio and its customers. The illustration on this slide gives you a perspective on the various options that are available to us, but we currently believe that another ESP is the most likely outcome for post-twenty 11. Obviously, each of these options has positive and negative implications, which we are carefully evaluating. As we approach renegotiation of the ESP, our proposals will strive to achieve a balance between ensuring fair returns on our assets, including compensation for dedication of our assets to serve the native load customer and maintaining stability of customer switching. As we progress through this customer switching. As we progress through this year and into 2011, we will continue to keep you apprised of developments in this area. As long as customer choice exists in Ohio, Duke Energy Retail sales will continue to target customer classes susceptible to switching from both within Ohio, including extensions of customer contracts for customers who remain interested in market rates. The Duke Energy retail sales may expand its supply relationship with Ohio based customers who include their out of state operations, we do not currently expect to broadly participate in markets outside of Ohio. To further position the company for success in the Ohio markets, in May, we made a filing in support of a proposed transfer to PJM. The filing requests FERC's approval to change the membership of Duke Energy Ohio and Duke Energy Kentucky from MISO to the PJM Regional Transmission Organization, effective January 1, 2012. Joining PJM will bring long term benefits for our Duke Energy Ohio customers because it puts all Ohio utilities in the same wholesale market where customers will benefit from the same wholesale and retail market rules, which are designed to facilitate operations in a retail market rules, which are designed to facilitate operations in a competitive market such as Ohio's. Because our Kentucky system is connected to our Ohio transmission system, the move to PJM also benefits our Kentucky customers. We co own 6 non regulated power plants with other Ohio utilities that are also members of PJM. Having all power plant owners in the same RTO, subject to the same price and market signals, will assist in outage and maintenance planning. We expect to incur MISO exit fees as well as obligations for legacy MISO and future PJM transmission expansion costs. However, we are still having discussions with MISO and other parties to determine the magnitude of these costs. Estimates can be made. MISO and other parties have intervened in our FERC application. Most of the interveners' comments focus on the rationale for our transfer and fail to recognize that RTO membership is voluntary. Additionally, these filings fail to recognize the competitive challenges facing our Ohio business and the value of joining the other Ohio utilities and PJM. We will be responding to these filings shortly. Slide cost 10 is to hold O and M net of deferrals and cost recovery riders flat to 2,009. As a result, we must sustain the O and M cuts we achieved in 2,009 as well as absorb the impact of inflation to our costs in 20 10. Through the second quarter, we are on track to achieve our cost objective for 20.10. However, we expect modest cost pressure from the impact of the unusually warm weather that continued into this quarter. The bottom line is that we are running our plants more than we had expected. We will stay focused on cost control throughout the latter half of this year. Additionally, we continue executing on the voluntary separation and office consolidation plans that I highlighted last quarter. We continue to target a 2 to 3 year payback period for these costs. Our focus on cost control and operational excellence is important given our active regulatory calendar. We must control costs and efficiently operate our plants to lessen the impact of price increases on our customers. We remain committed to cost control measures and to the continued reliability and quality of our service. In closing, we are encouraged by our strong performance during the first half of twenty ten. As Jim told you, we are increasing our 20 10 adjusted diluted EPS range from $1.25 to $1.30 to $1.30 to 1 $0.35 Achievement of this $3.0 to 1 point 3 $5 Achievement of this increased EPS range assumes normal weather during the second half of twenty ten, continued success with our cost control efforts and maintaining our strong operational performance. We're off to a good start for the Q3 as all indications are that July weather was favorable to normal. However, it is important to remember that our annual performance will be largely dependent upon our 3rd quarter results, typically our most significant quarter. And And with that, I'll turn it back over to Jim. Thank you, Lynn. Now I will provide an update of our major construction projects. We continue progressing on time and on budget with our Cliffside 825 Megawatt Supercritical Pulverized Coal project in North Carolina as well as our Buck and Dan River combined cycle gas fired projects in North and are both on time and under budget and expected to be operational by the end of this year. The 6 18 Megawatt Edwardsport IGCC project in Indiana is approximately 65% complete with final engineering over 90% complete. The project is expected to be in commercial operation in 2012. Through June 30, we have spent approximately $1,800,000,000 of the 2 $350,000,000 previously authorized by the Indiana Commission. As I outlined in our first quarter call, we are seeking authorization from the commission to raise this cost estimate by $530,000,000 to $2,880,000,000 This matter has been put into a separate sub docket from our semiannual QIP writer believe that we have believe that we have managed this large and complex project as prudently as possible. Many of the challenges we have faced stem from the first of a kind nature of IGCC technology at this scale and equally important, issues arising from the engineering, design and procurement phase of the project. The good news is that this phase is now essentially complete and we are building momentum as we work through the construction phase. As with any complex project of this size, there are uncertainties. However, we have captured our best estimate of these uncertainties in the revised cost estimate. Recall that in addition to our own assessments, the commission is being advised on the status of the project by Black and Veatch, an independent engineering contractor. This has given the commission independent insight into the nature and to the Indiana economy, local jobs and the region's coal industry. To accommodate the September. As we prepare for this issue in September. As we prepare for the hearing, we continue to review testimony filed last week by several intervener groups. These interveners have recommended various courses of action for the project, such as the project. It is important to note that several of these arguments have been previously advocated and rejected by the Indiana Commission. Nevertheless, we will respond vigorously to these arguments in our rebuttal testimony and at the hearing. We have been holding informal discussions with many of our stakeholders to concerns and all these conversations may well lead to a settlement with respect to this expansion. Over the coming weeks, we will update you on the status of this important proceeding. Pending resolution of this matter, we IURC recently approved our 4th IGCC Quip rider filing allowing us financing cost recovery on capital cost spent through September strategy is driven by existing and proposed environmental regulations, principally focused on coal on from coal fired generation. Our focus on providing new, cleaner generation has us well positioned to comply with these new environmental regulations. We have been working for more than a decade to reduce emissions to the installation of environmental control equipment, and we are proposals regarding coal combustion residuals and a transport rule to replace the CARE rule. We also expect the EPA to issue a proposed MAC rule on hazardous air pollutants such as mercury in early 2011. While the exact effects of pending environmental regulations are unknown, we are planning for different scenarios and the potential impact on our stations. This may include additional cost due to the the we are currently planning. Over the past decade, we have spent about $5,000,000,000 to comply with federal and state clean air regulations. Our modeling suggests future investment could be in the same range, phased in over a long time period and likely beginning after 2012. We were disappointed with the recent news of the Senate shelving their efforts on comprehensive energy and environmental legislation. We believe energy and environmental policy for our country, including a program that will lead to a cleaner low carbon economy. We will continue to work with these issues in the weeks months ahead asking the next Congress to provide our industry with the regulatory clarity clarity that we seek. Regardless of congressional action, the EPA will begin regulating greenhouse gases such as carbon January 2, 2011. We will continue to fight for reasonable outcomes that help minimize the cost impact of these regulations to our customers over time. I will close with a summary of our progress in fulfilling the short and long term commitments we made at our February analyst half of twenty ten and are increasing our 20 10 adjusted diluted EPS outlook range from $1.25 to $1.30 to $1.30 to $1.35 We recently increased our quarterly continue growing the dividend, but at a slower rate than the long term growth in our adjusted diluted earnings per share. It marks the 84th consecutive year that Duke Energy has paid a quarterly cash dividend on its common stock. As you may remember, our second commitment is to allocate capital efficiently and earn competitive returns. We are modernizing our and have allocated significant capital to these projects. We expect to earn reasonable regulated returns in the jurisdictions in which we operate, while meeting our customers' future electricity needs in a manner that prudently balances reliability, affordability and environmental stewardship. Our renewable projects, both wind and solar, are under budget and on and to finance and efficiently operate a utility scale renewable portfolio. Finally, our 3rd commitment is to maintain a strong balance sheet. S and P recently reaffirmed our A- corporate credit ratings with a stable outlook. We intend to maintain our current credit ratings, which has given us strong access to the capital to And we'll go to Daniel Edgers with Credit Suisse. Hey, good morning. Good morning, Dan. I was wondering first question, Annalyn, just talking to the demand outlook or the recovery story. At the Analyst Day, you guys talked about a fairly muted 5 year plan for recovery. And this year seems well above with the revisions today. What would give you guys confidence that the sub-one percent growth you talked about earlier this year has changed something more meaningful and kind of what do you see underlying that's driving the better numbers right now? Dan, I would point, 1st of all, to industrial. We had a very strong rebound in the first quarter, really led by primary metals in our service territories. Textiles have also performed well. As we look at the 2nd quarter, that strength has broadened beyond primary metals into automotive and chemicals as well. So we see, as you noticed on the chart, 12.4% increase. As we talk those industrial customers, they're confident about the back half of twenty ten. Where the confidence starts to weaken a bit though is when they talk about 2011. So I think we're in, we feel good about where we are for 2010, but I think we're still cautious about the strength as a rebound into 11%. The other thing that I would note is that residential and commercial have been roughly flat for the quarter. Residential is up about 1% for the year, but that is still a bit of a challenged growth rate and we'd like to see a bit stronger turnaround in those two segments as well. Okay, thanks. And then I guess, Jim, your thought process on when you guys start making decisions on prospective coal plant closures in response to EPA action, what kind of rules do you need to see and what kind of timeline do you think you're going to have to start talking about closing down some of those units? Dan, we've really got a head start on this process with the building of Edwardsport, Cliffside and our 2 combined cycle gas plants. The combination of the building of those will allow us to retire roughly 1300 megawatts of about 4,500 megawatts that we believe will be retired by the end of this decade. So in a sense, we've already started down the road because we think reinvesting in new plants with a low cost of capital and lower rates for consumers. And by starting now, it will smooth out the cost increases for consumers over the decade. It's difficult to make further decisions until we get greater clarity with respect to the EPA regulations. We have modeled it many, many different ways and we're waiting to see the proposed rule before we move forward. But we think most of the major decisions will really lead up to 20 15. Great. Thank you, guys. Thank you. Thank you. We'll go to Greg Gordon with Morgan Morgan Stanley. Thank you. Good morning. Good morning, Greg. On commercial power and I apologize if you this in the script and I missed it. Can you describe in a little more detail what drove the higher results for the Midwest Gas assets, the $23,000,000 improvement? Dan, we had stronger capacity payments this year over last year as a driver. Volumes were roughly comparable to last year, but our margins were a bit stronger. So those are the 2 things I would point to. Great. And at if you look at the customers that have not switched, the customers that are still taking your taking power under the ESP and you look at the all in rate there relative to, let's say, a market rate, do you think you have further gross margin exposure as you negotiate go into negotiations for a new ESP? A clearly, there's an opportunity to get lower prices or people wouldn't be switching. Yes. I would say that's true because when I look at the margin that existed in our ESP that we negotiated at the height of the commodity boom in 2,008, those prices were much higher. So I think as you think about 2012 and forward, you should be thinking about resetting those prices to a more market based rate. The other thing we will be I'm sorry, go ahead. So the bad news is there might be some further pressure on margins, but the good news is those customers would therefore be at market and you wouldn't have to worry about switching. I guess that would be one way to look at it. The other thing I was going to say though, Greg, as we look at entering the ESP, we will also be addressing a number of other things. Environmental costs will be 1 we're very focused on. Compensation for dedication of assets if we end up with dedicated assets to the load. So we will be looking at a variety of things in addition to what I would call pure market energy prices that would be reasonable forms of compensation for the assets. So more to come as we enter those negotiations. So to sort of put that another way, you feel like there are other ways think that's fair. I think that's fair. I think one way to add to that is simply to say you can easily see a bypassable charge that's tied to the capacity that's being dedicated to serve the load. Capacity that's being dedicated to serve the load in the future, a non bypassable charge. But then that you're saying one that doesn't exist today or one that is higher than 1? 1 that doesn't exist today that as we look at proposing ESP beyond the notion of a non bypassable charge that compensates us for the polar responsibility is something in my judgment makes a lot of sense. Fair enough. Thank you. Thank you, Craig. We'll now go to Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank. Good morning. Good morning, Jonathan. My question is more on the, say, the next year impact from switching in Ohio as you're seeing this year come in towards the upper end of that range of $0.04 to $0.07 you gave us. When you think about the timing of where that's occurring during this year, should we be thinking about the number of cents of follow through into '11 as you hit the full year impact of the switching that happened in 'ten or was it predominantly front end loaded and less of an issue? Jonathan, our incremental switching impact from 'nine to 'ten is about $0.05 You might recall in 'nine, we were at $0.02 the upper end of the range and $0.10 is $0.07 So I would look at that $0.05 delta and I think a reasonable planning assumption would be to annualize that into 0.11. Okay. So there'll be another 0.05 you're saying another $0.05 or am I mishearing that? No, I think that's a reasonable assumption. And as you think about the rest of commercial power, though, you also have to make assumptions around wholesale prices. You have to make assumptions about what we will accomplish with the assets, etcetera. And we'll give you a more complete picture of commercial as we finalize our guidance for 2011. We'll now go to Steve Fleishman with Bank of America. Steve. Couple of questions on the goodwill write down. Should we assume that generation. That's correct. Okay. What are those assets now on the books for? Hold on a moment. I would say roughly 3.84 then I guess from the standpoint of I know the goodwill write down is non cash, but I guess it does impact your equity ratio. Is there any change in your thinking on financing plans, equity issuance plans over the 3 to 5 year period given the write down or is it still just the drift at the level that you had said? Yes, Steve, no impact to financing plans. As we look at our metrics and we're very comfortably positioned in our ratings and those metrics are largely driven by our coverage ratios, FFO to debt and interest, which of course would not be impacted at all by this view. We'll now go to Hugh Wynn with Sanford Bernstein. Morning. I think back over the last decade and I just I don't think I can remember a time when Duke Energy wasn't nursing along some fleet of unregulated generation assets that ultimately culminated in some large write down. And the historic tendency that seems to be playing out again is that these assets absorb an undue amount of sort of management attention and analyst attention and ultimately have very little potential upside. And I was just wanting to get your views about alternatives to continuing to own those assets. Is it something that you've explored? Or do you feel that you're completely bound into the ownership given the PUC owes restrictions on transfer? Hugh, let me take a shot at your question. I think a couple of things to keep in mind. The assets the assets that we're really talking about in the Midwest were deregulated in 2000 and then dedicated to our customers for 5 years and then we entered into an RSP, which I always refer to as a regulatory light approach. And during that period, our market price was equal to I mean, our RSP price was equal to or below the market price at the time. And when we entered into this ESP, we expected to continue to operate in this regulatory light world with that 4,000 megawatts of generation. Now that we have the prices have dropped so dramatically in PJM, it's obviously forced us to think differently about these assets because at the end of the day, we have roughly 4,000 megawatts of gas fired generation that was left over from Dina in the Midwest. And so in a sense, if you see this regulatory light assumption that we operated in morphing to where we have 8,000 megawatts of merchant generation in the Midwest. We have to kind of rethink, do we really want to hold that position and the risk and the volatility of earnings or can we structure a deal, Ohio Commission that allows So yes, we're thinking about a wide range of options today and have been thinking about them as we've watched the market price fall in PJM over the last year. So we are thinking with respect to this is under curves, the markets turn up significantly in 'sixteen and 'seventeen. And so one of the questions that we ask ourselves, even if we were to stop out of our position, this isn't the time in history to do it to get the greatest value. So I think our first priority is to work with the regulators to get a deal that works. Our gas assets are performing better each year and as demand comes back and the economy recovers, they will only increase in value. So a lot depends on what this ESP looks like that we renegotiate as to what alternatives that we actually pursue. But I've kind of been very open in sharing with you the range of possibilities that are under consideration given where we are today. We'll now go to Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Hey, guys. Just a question for you on Indiana. When you look out after Edwards Port is done in rates, can you talk about where your rates will likely stand versus other Indiana based utilities? I think we've historically had some of the lowest rates in the state. I have not done the comparison, but supply you that information later, if we may. The other question, any change or any update on long term development of non regulated renewable or other non regulated power assets? No, let me take that one, Michael. We are developing wind, as you know. Our aspiration has been to grow that business at a pace of about 2 50 megawatts a year. We're on track to do that in 10 with a couple of projects that Jim referenced a moment ago. We've had a couple of very small solar projects that we've announced as well. So a lot of work is going on to identify good projects that meet our returns, and that is probably a good summary of where we think we're going with those businesses. We'll now go to Brian Chin with Citigroup. Hi. A question on retail. Have you seen an increased level of retail competition from providers outside of your service, Terry, particularly asset light retail providers? Brian, that's a good question. There has been an increased number of retail light, I'm not sure that I've looked behind the books of all the light, I'm not sure that I've looked behind the books of all the individuals who are participating in the market, but I think just the evidence that we've seen in our territory indicates that competition is picking up in Ohio. We've seen similar PAG, PAG, from Constellation earlier this earnings season? And then referencing an earlier question that Greg had mentioned about when you guys filed the ESP, you're going to have a series of rates that need to take into account higher environmental costs. Just thinking a little bit longer term, how do you think this is going to pan out for asset light retail providers versus asset heavy retail providers? Just thinking longer term strategically, who do you think is going to be more disadvantaged and more advantaged? It would be my judgment having lived through the asset light environment that you're much better to have hard assets in the ground. It's kind of a more predictable capability to deliver and not be subject to the volatility of power prices in the market. So I believe long term and when I hear Asset Light, I think Enron. And if there are Enron type players trying to take our customers, then come on in because eventually you're going to get run out because you're not going to have the assets to be able to supply the power that our customers need. So my belief is it's the owners of the assets that are going to survive and do best in this environment going forward. Last question on this. Shouldn't higher environmental requirements temporarily though make asset heavy I think there's a couple of things to think about and we're certainly doing analysis as I suspect that you have is you look forward not only will there be retrofit cost but there are going to be retirements and to the extent people retire units in PJM, that is really going to change the supply demand equation and in all likelihood drive drive up prices over time. And there's an open question with respect to even gas fired generation and the dependence on shale gas. Will that shale gas continue to keep gas prices below $5 or will that price start to move up because there have been many questions asked about the amount of shale gas and availability, lot of unanswered questions as to whether it will be lot of unanswered questions as to whether it will be available and at what price. So I think you have to take into account the retirements, how gas prices are going to move, how coal prices are going to move. If you see retirements of coal plants in the region, you can envision a decline in coal prices. And so those with harder coal assets might offset the environmental in our way through each aspect of it. We'll go to horse too much, but Jim, if you are correct, and I believe you are, that value of assets are going to go up, particularly on the generation side, why not shop while it's cheap? I'm not sure. I guess my short answer is, I'm not sure everybody shares the view you and I have about how valuable the assets are. And I think that you're going to have to see more volatility in PJM. You're going to have to see the price move up and the forward curve says it doesn't really happen to 'sixteen, 'seventeen. I believe looking at the fundamentals, the price is going to move up even sooner. Agreed. That's one person's judgment. But I think most people would mark the value of these assets based on the forward curve and not necessarily on the underlying fundamentals as I described them. That's exactly the reason why the asset prices would be cheap enough to buy. But we might be a seller and it's not a good time to sell. I see. There are some interesting things going on in the tax issues in the Congress. If the dividend does indeed get taxed at 20%, how does that change Duke's dividend policy? And does that make paying out dividend less attractive and would that change your payout philosophy? Our value proposition is really centered around the dividend and centered around the growth of the dividend. Even if the tax rate changed, and we hope it doesn't, we think it would be bad public policy given where the economy is to raise taxes on dividends or capital gains for going forward. We do not believe it changes our basic value proposition and our commitment to the dividend and the growth of the dividend. Okay. On MISO, they asked for more information on the PJM transfer, and it sounded like they needed Duke to justify the move in a more, how should I say, acceptable manner apparently to MISO. First of all, what exactly are they looking for? And do they have the ability to stop that transfer from happening or at least play havoc on the transfer process? I think first, when they sent the letter to us or filed with the FERC, they basically forgot that these are voluntary arrangements, 1st and foremost. And secondly, they don't appreciate the fact that we are and certainly not valuing the fact that we're leaving all our Indiana generation in MISO even though it's a voluntary decision on our part. And I guess the third point really is, is that most of our plants, as Lynn pointed out, are co owned plants in Ohio where our partners are in PJM. So, there is a compelling logic in my mind if we have co owned plants with all of them are in PJM, that it makes sense for our plants output to be in PJM also. So from our standpoint, there is a strong logic to us making this transition now and it's simply and I guess one last point is that MISO has refused to establish a capacity market that's meaningful compared to PJM and they have a capacity market and that makes a fundamental difference if we find ourselves increasingly in a merchant position with respect to our coal plants. So we feel like that they have, in my judgment, overreacted and forgotten the basics and we were one of the founding members of MISO. So it's with some reluctance that we withdraw something that we help create, but if the world changes and it's changed in a way that today it makes sense for us to make this move. Excellent. One last question, if you permit me. Since the unemployment rate in your service territories are not higher than national average but have gotten there faster, would we be safe in assuming that the reverse would also be true that manufacturing led economy or rebound would then therefore help to reduce the unemployment rates in your service territory quicker and below the the number in our area, but it's very difficult for us to predict what the job is number will be even as the industrial sector rebounds. Okay. Thank you. Thank you. We'll now go to our last question from Ali Agha with SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Thank you. Good morning. Jim or Lynn, when you talk about your 4% to 6% longer term EPS growth target or outlook. Given some of the trends you talked about, the ESP repricing, the forward capacity payment trends that we know are coming next couple of years. Are you assuming that your existing portfolio can generate that of long term growth? Or are you assuming any additions or acquisitions in there down the road? We're not assuming acquisitions. We're certainly on track on the growth rate this year. That growth rate is largely supported by our regulated business and the deployment of capital. And as we get closer to the range of outcomes on the ESP, we'll give you a finer view of how we think Ohio will contribute as we go forward. But we're thinking about our growth rate within the context of the businesses we own. And related question, when you folks took a look at the utilities in Kentucky, should we assume that was a one off with some compelling reasons to own them? Or Jim, as you've talked about before, as you think about a second wave potentially coming of consolidation in the industry, should we also assume that Duke will be an active participant or a looker in that process? In my judgment, as you've referenced, I believe consolidation will continue in our wave that has just started. I also believe that we obviously were very opportunistic and took a look at it obviously made a lot of sense to us, but we weren't the winning bidder. And the important point you should take from that is, yes, we're going to look at opportunities as they present themselves, but we're going to be very disciplined in our approach and that is going to be the key to any acquisition or merger that we do in the future. Okay. And contiguous territories generally would be one of the criteria you would think about, Jen? What? Contiguous. Yes, contiguous, there is an advantage to contiguous in terms of reducing operating cost and dealing with things like storms and storm restoration, etcetera. Not going to be able to get a criteria with respect to what we will be looking at going forward. Understood. Thank you.