Hi. Welcome back. I'm Larry Biegelsen, the Medical Device Analyst at Wells Fargo, and it's my pleasure to host this fireside chat with the management team from Dexcom. With us, we have Jake Leach, President and COO, and the incoming CEO, and Jereme Sylvain, the CFO. So, you know, I think this is Jake's first fireside chat since being promoted to the CEO role, which is official January 1st, 2026.
That's right.
Jereme and Jake, thank you very much for being here.
Thanks for having us.
Yeah, it's a pleasure.
So let's start off with the recent CEO announcement. Jake, congratulations on the new role. Please talk about your vision for Dexcom over the next five to 10 years.
Yeah, of course, so thanks, everyone, for being here. Thanks, Larry, for having us. You know, as I look at the future for Dexcom, I couldn't be more excited to lead this incredible company into the future. You know, I've been at Dexcom for 21 years, and I've been a part of many of the pivotal innovations in the CGM category. Starting all the way back with the first real-time CGM, and then transitioning to, you know, well, the connectivity with insulin pumps, mobile phone, smartphone connectivity, the non-adjunctive claims, the replacement of finger sticks, and then the most recent innovations around over-the-counter CGM, and I think as we look at the opportunity in front of us, there's so much benefit that CGM can bring to the world.
If we look at just the coverage landscape that we have right now for continuous glucose monitoring, there are more people today that have coverage for CGM than are using CGM, so there are people that are not using CGM. It really is a strong benefit for the growth of the company, and that coverage is only going to expand as we go forward. When I think about Dexcom in the long run, we're really building a metabolic health platform. Today, we're very focused on diabetes, and we're gonna continue on that focus. But with our launch of Stelo and over-the-counter CGM, we're just starting to see the benefits of what we can provide to a much, much broader population.
That's helpful. For those on the webcast, I would say I've never seen this many people in a fireside chat room before, so definitely a good sign, so Jake, what are your strategic priorities over the next call it 12-24 months?
Sure, so most important, top priority right now is executing 2025. We put a commitment out there for revenue and operating margin, and we intend to hit that. Last year, we did not meet our commitment, so executing on 2025 is super important for us and for me and the management team. You know, as I look out a little farther, continuing to gain access for CGM, pushing for more coverage globally. You know, when I think about that opportunity, there are so many people that still don't have coverage for CGM around the world. That's gonna be a big priority. The other priority is continue to look at how we've scaled our business. We've grown substantially, but we still have quite a bit to do.
I've been very involved in much of the operations and manufacturing, and I look forward to continuing to look at, you know, other parts of the business around our technical support, how we support customers. The other big focus for me that may be a little different than what we've done in the past is our international presence. I want us to be ready to take advantage of coverage when it comes internationally. Historically, we're very focused on a certain, segment of the market, and those kind of top-tier, high-risk Type 1. Moving forward, as coverage opens up in Type 2 insulin use and beyond, Dexcom is gonna be ready to take advantage of that. So we need to look at our commercial infrastructure, look at what markets we're direct in, what new distributor markets we're gonna bring.
That's, that's some of the priorities for the next 24 months.
That's helpful. So, Jake, you know, we'll talk about 2026 later, but I wanted to ask you, at a high level, how you think about the growth algorithm for Dexcom going forward? This year, you're guiding 14%-15% top-line growth, about 200 basis points of operating margin leverage, but it's all off of arguably an easy comp because of some of the issues you had last year. So maybe just give us some high-level thoughts about... I know you don't have an LRP, maybe when you plan to issue a new LRP and how you want kind of new investors to think about the growth algorithm for the company.
Yeah, so when I look at the coverage that exists today, healthcare coverage and the coverage that's going to come, and you look at the scale that we've built and the opportunity out there, I don't see any reason why this business isn't a strong double-digit growth into the foreseeable future. And I'm not talking about, like, teetering on, you know, 9%, low single or single-digit %. We're talking about strong double-digit growth. There's no reason why we can't achieve that. And we are working on. We have an LRP. As an incoming CEO, it's important for me to pressure test that and make sure I'm comfortable with it. We have a new Chief Commercial Officer. It's about 90 days in role, John Coleman.
And so he and I, and Jereme, and the rest of the management team are working on our LRP. We will be bringing that to you. It's important. It's a commitment that we're making to investors, and to ourselves, and we will be bringing that soon.
2026. Early, sometime in 20-
Soon. Yeah.
Could be sooner than 2026?
Yeah. We know that our current LRP runs out in 2025, and so, we need to make sure-
Sometime this year, sounds like the goal.
Soon.
Yeah.
Soon. Okay.
Very soon. Just soon.
Okay, I got it. Okay, you keep highlight-
Working on your calendar is way too busy, Larry. Keep looking for time that's not available.
Okay, good to hear. So before we move on to the business, I wanted to give you an opportunity to respond to some of the concerns in the market. A few weeks ago, there was a third-party report highlighting some concerns around G7 reliability and accuracy issues. Just talk about your reaction to those concerns that the report raised and how you're addressing those, please.
Yeah, certainly, so obviously, we saw the report too. It doesn't reflect what we're hearing from the market. There's a number of things in that report, specifically about the reliability of G7. As if we look at the history of G7 from the time we launched it several years ago, we've made significant enhancements to the platform. We've added a new patch. We've done a lot on the sensor probe processing, deployment. So if you look at our metrics, things like warranty, replacements, complaint rates, you know, performance of the sensor, accuracy, all of that has continued to improve over time, and we haven't seen anything that has changed that trajectory. There is one thing, though, we have experienced earlier this year.
We did have some deployment challenges, where the systems, when you deploy a G7 sensor, it would not deploy properly, and so it would fail quickly. It was a pretty bad experience for users. They weren't happy with it. It was, you know, unusual for them to have a sensor fail that quickly. We did see that start to pop up earlier this year. We addressed it. It had to do with a number of supplier component issues that we addressed. And so we've fixed it, and we've seen that number start coming down. I do believe that that's part of what has caused people to mention their issues, is that deployment challenge did occur, but. The numbers are going back down.
When it comes to accuracy, days of wear, all those things, we've seen nothing but improvements in that. One of the other interesting parts of that report, I wish I knew where, who they talked to there, because I'd love to make sure that they've got a good understanding of what's really going on. But there was also some concern about DME relationships, and there's. You know, we've been very focused on communicating with all of our large DME partners and making sure that we understand what's important to them, and they understand what's important to us. They're very important partners going forward as we think about, you know, continued business in that channel, as well as Medicare expansion.
At some point in time, that fee-for-service Medicare goes through DME, so they're an important partner, and so not sure who they spoke to, but we feel very comfortable with our relationships with our DME suppliers.
How do you ensure these issues don't impact the upcoming 15-day sensor launch?
So I think, you know, we've put a lot of additional technology in the 15-day. We've got the 15-day Warrior launch is ongoing now. So 15-day is out, commercially, in a small community of influencers. We're basically building up the collateral, for the launch. We will launch the product imminently. We feel very confident about the quality of that product, as it goes out the door.
Remind us of the transition, how long you think it's going to take from 10-day to 15-day?
Yeah, it's important. Our number one concern here is making sure that we don't cause any kind of disruption in the market. If someone either upgrades to 15-day, or is a new patient to 15-day, we want to make sure that the insurance coverage is there, they have a very smooth experience, as well as the AID compatibility with an AID system, either one that they're currently on or one that they want to begin using. We got to make sure that compatibility is there. So that's been part of the planning for 15-day launch. So we have compatibility with the vast majority of our pump partners. We have one that's going to be compatible very soon. So the launch is going to take a little time.
It's a new prescription required, so to go onto a 15-day product, the user needs to use their 10-day supplies and then upgrade with a new prescription to 15-day. Obviously, someone who is a new user can go straight to 15 days. So it's not going to look too dissimilar from our G6 upgrade. So it's going to take a little bit of time. We won't push users there immediately. We want them to have the choice, but we do believe that over time, everybody's going to transition to that 15-day sensor.
Got it. So let's transition to the business, 2025 outlook. You posted 15%, I think, organic growth in the second quarter. I think the guidance implies kind of stable growth in the second half of the year. So I guess my question is: How are you thinking about how the rest of the year plays out? And given that the comps are a little bit easier, why wouldn't growth accelerate?
Yeah. So I can certainly take that one. You know, the way we really thought about guidance is, it's Jake alluded to it a little bit earlier, it's really about a commitment and holding firm to our commitments as we started the year. You know, obviously, last year we didn't hit those commitments, and so after two quarters, and two really good quarters, I think it was a demonstration of really strong patient performance. I think it was really just our intent to live up to those commitments versus taking any sort of victory lap or any sort of pound our chest moment. So I don't want to say that our guidance is, you know, our guidance is what it is, and we've done the math, and we understand the comp challenges.
I think what we would say is, "Look, let's live up to our commitments. We owe it to you, a year of living to those commitments, and if we can outperform that, Larry, we'll pass it right along." I think that's the best way to do it, kind of earning back, you know, some of that confidence that we are going to execute to what we say we're gonna do.
Any color on Q3, Q4 cadence, and the street properly calibrated, that kind of thing?
Yeah, look, I think we came out of the quarter. I think where folks' heads were at over the course of the year is in line with our guidance. While we don't guide to quarters, we didn't do anything. And then, folks, I think where folks are coming to is in line with our guidance. So, as long as folks are staying in line with our guidance, we feel, you know, good about the year. We obviously reiterated and increased the year by a little bit. So I think that's the way to think about it. Obviously, we're very bullish on CGM. This is going... Q3 is going to be the first quarter where we actually have all three PBMs in the market now covering non-insulin diabetes.
That's a real good opportunity for us in non-insulin diabetes. That's a real good opportunity for us. On top of some of the international wins that we've seen build up, we talked about Ontario Drug Benefit, big win for us. Historically, we were not in that market, and so there's a big win and big opportunity for us there, along with some other wins outside the United States. So, look, I like the way the best of the back half of the year is going to show up for us. I just think it's up for us to make sure we deliver against our execution, deliver a little bit more, we will.
Okay, perfect. I definitely want to drill down on the two topics you mentioned: non-insulin, Type 2 non-insulin, and then international. Maybe just start with non-insulin with international, I'm sorry. It has slowed a little bit, maybe 12%-14% in the first half of the year. How are you thinking, Jake, about international going forward?
So, one of the things that's important to think about as we move into the international markets and push harder there is we have a tiered pricing model in international markets. So you have the G7, and then you've got our Dexcom ONE + product that comes in at a different price point. That Dexcom ONE + is in markets where we were not historically. And so all of that is incremental growth. And so if you look at volume growth, it is higher than that top line revenue growth. The way I think about international markets is there's a lot of opportunity. We have a great product portfolio to compete in those markets. And as more coverage comes, we're going to continue to execute and be ready to take advantage of it.
We're going to enter more markets. We're going to go direct in more markets when and when it makes sense, when the opportunity is there. And so it's an important part of what will be different about the way Dexcom is executing in the future versus how we've done in the past.
Switching back to the U.S., Stelo has been very successful, but at least relative to our expectations, and I think your expectations at 2%-3%.
Yeah.
It looks like it's coming towards the 3%. But the flip side of that is it makes it look like the U.S. core, you know, G-series prescription business is a little bit slower, and we see kind of a disconnect between patient growth, which looks good, versus the revenue growth. So the question is: When do we see... Is that accurate, that the patient growth is faster than the revenue growth for the G-series in the U.S.? And when do we see those converge?
Yes, I think the underlying patient growth, it is faster than the revenue growth, right? But that's been pretty consistent with what we've seen. As you expect to see those volume and revenue trends come in, if you kind of go back to Q4, Q1, and Q2, you really started to see it coming in a little bit in Q4, a little bit more in Q1, a little bit more in Q2, and I'd expect it to continue to come in over time. We talked about lapping a rebate challenge from last year and stabilizing and lapping a DME transition. If you think about it, remember, last year, a lot of the DME challenges we had really occurred over the second and third quarter. We're now lapping that on an annualization basis.
So having some of that come into line is our expectations over the course of the year, and I would expect that to continue into outyears, where we start to lap it and starts to get more stable. Remember, we're at a 100% rebate rate right now, so you can't go higher than that, right? Every unit we send out now, we assume, is subject to a full rebate. That helps us ultimately as we start to lap that.
You started the question with your comments around Stelo, and we have been happy with how Stelo has performed. We just lapped the twelve-month anniversary of the launch, so we launched Stelo last year in August. In the first 12 months, we've done $100 million in revenue. There's few wearables, I think, that have been able to do that in the first 12 months, and we really are just starting to get going. We've made quite a bit of updates to the app. We've brought in nutrition information. We're now at the photo meal logging, where you can take a picture of the app.
We're going to bring in all kinds of additional insight around nutrition because we really think that that's one of the opportunities as we look broadly at the Stelo opportunity to bring that nutrition in.
To follow up on Stelo, $100 million in the first 12 months, that's new to me. I don't know if you've disclosed that before. Any way to think about peak sales in the next five years, and how big can this product be?
Yeah, we'll get to that when we give you the LRP soon, and you know, when we have that, we'll ultimately give you some context. The reason why we want to talk about it, though, we do want to lay it out because we talked about Type 2 coverage coming in. That's a great win for us because ultimately, we know when there's coverage, we know that folks tend to use the product more often. And so we're going to combine that with the Stelo platform. We're also going to bring Stelo outside the United States, and so we want to lay that all out for you in an LRP, but it's not a hundred. Obviously, it's hundreds and hundreds of millions is what we expect it to be, but give us time.
We'll give you a specific number in the LRP, which I think will give you some comfort around it. It's a big, massive opportunity for us.
Soon, of course.
Soon.
Yes. We do intend also to bring that product to international markets. Today, it's only available in the U.S. That's been our focus, but as time goes on, we want to launch it in multiple different geographies.
That's helpful. So Type 2, a few questions. I guess before the RCT and the CMS coverage, you have 6 million or so covered lives are expected by the end of this year. How are you able to access those? I mean, how are you seeing the benefit? Are you accessing those patients today? You're able to target, you know, the right physicians and patients. Talk about the opportunity before CMS coverage.
Yeah, we... You know, it's a big expansion in the number of lives that have access to CGM. And so as we look at it, we are seeing traction there. We're taking shares, certainly, in the non-insulin-using space, where we, you know, historically haven't been. And one of the keys to success here is making sure when a doctor writes a prescription for one of these patients, they have confidence that they're going to be covered when they go into the physician's office. So the idea of writing a prescription and having a patient go to the pharmacy and be quoted a cash pay price because they're not covered is not something a physician wants. So our sales force carries tools to help physicians better understand exactly who in their practices are covered, what insurance coverage looks like.
And that's only going to continue to improve. And that awareness around the out-of-pocket cost and the benefit of CGM is something that's part of the main message for our sales force as we've expanded to primary care.
... So if I think about the big catalysts that investors are excited about with Dexcom, one is the Type 2 non-insulin opportunity, the other is the gross margin opportunity with 15 days. So we'll get to that later. But on Type 2, my question is non-insulin, you're doing the RCT. I don't think you've disclosed kind of the design, so it's hard for us to assess. But how confident are you that that study is going to be positive, we're going to see results like we saw in MOBILE? Anything you can say?
Sure. Yeah, so it's a randomized controlled trial that we're running in patients that have Type 2 but don't use insulin, and it's a pretty large swath of users. So you think about folks that are taking GLP-1s, people that are on oral medications, the whole SGLT2s. It's the whole gamut of Type 2 diabetes. And what we're powered at for is showing benefit in A1C reduction, as well as time in range of metrics for this population. And based on everything we've seen in previously run studies and previous evidence, is that there will be a strong benefit. We're shooting for as good or maybe even better than what we saw in the MOBILE study. That study, our RCT, will read out the first part of next year, and so we look forward to sharing that with everyone.
That evidence will be used to support a number of different access submissions for Type 2 around the globe, just as we've used the previous studies like MOBILE to gain access in countries outside the U.S. as well as in the U.S.
So if it reads out early next year, so ATTD or ADA, which one is more likely for presentation?
We may do it there. We may do a unique presentation. We'll see. It depends on when we finally get the last patients out, but it'll be in the first half of the year for sure. The other, you know, important aspect is CMS coverage may come before that trial is done. We're running it because we know the importance of that evidence for the future of Dexcom. You know, in previous years, we've been surprised at how coverage has come. We do see that commercial coverage is moving pretty fast in this category. You know, CMS wants to be able to offer their beneficiaries the best opportunities to take care of themselves, so who knows? It could move faster.
So that's new to me. Maybe I'm just not paying close attention. What is giving you the confidence that, or what signals are you seeing that suggest CMS coverage might come before early next year?
There's a lot of groundswell out there. I mean, if you look at. It's funny, CGM has somehow made it into late-night talk show conversations. I don't think we ever thought that was going to happen before. Certainly, you hear it on the agenda of the current administration, all different levels of it. And so, you know, we've been meeting over time with CMS and other various legislative bodies, and we know there's interest in ultimately bending this curve. That's a bit of a challenge to really the entire population. We also know, based on our history, all the approvals that have taken place in CMS coverage expansion have happened on non-normal cycles, to where they publish kind of out of sort of normal trends.
So I think while we know the RCT and going that process and getting ADA coverage to move from B evidence to A evidence, and pulling that package together is the most surefire way to follow it. There's been a lot of groundswell and interest in CGM and expanding it to the population, and so it gives us some confidence that, hey, maybe things could happen earlier. We're planning for it as if it doesn't. We're also planning for it capacity-wise, in case it does.
MOBILE, it happened three to six months after-
Yeah.
The data was presented, something like that.
It was quick.
Yeah, it was very quick.
I think it was three months, actually.
Yeah.
It sounds like you're hopeful that it could be at least, it may be... That, that's almost like a worst-case scenario, but it could be even better.
We, yeah, we, our goal is to be ready. Yeah, soon. Our goal is to be ready when it, when it does come, make sure we've got the capability to get make the product and get it to patients. I mean, if I'm CMS and I'm looking at my beneficiary population, there's one in three of the population has diabetes, three out of four have diabetes or prediabetes. So that's a pretty significant issue for CMS to manage, and so I think we all know how it's a benefit to CGM, and so it's just a matter of time.
That's, that's helpful. And then, so... Okay, let me ask about then the other, which is G8, the other pipeline product. And in the context of, you know, dual ketones and additional analytes, I mean, you, you know from, as well as I, there's concerns about Abbott coming out with a dual, ketone glucose sensor sometime next year. There's debate about the clinical utility of that, but I think, investors are concerned that they're gonna have something you don't have. What-- can you put-- You've talked about G8 being able to measure multiple analytes, but I don't think you've said is, ketone one of those analytes, and I don't think you've been very precise on the timing.
Maybe just talk about the competitive threat there and anything else you can say on when you can kind of neutralize that.
Sure. Yeah. When you mentioned concern, I thought you were talking about... There is definitely concern about the idea of continuous ketone sensing and the actual outcomes you can drive with it. What does it actually provide? How do you-- There's no clinical guidelines out there for it, so how is this gonna work with a glucose signal and a ketone sensor signal? So I think that's, that is an important issue to tackle. But when it comes to our G8 product, G8 is a super important part of our product pipeline. It is the next generation of our wearable, so it will go across. We call it G8, but it will go across all of our products, like Stelo and the Dexcom ONE+ and other products, similar to the way we've done that with our G7.
That platform is 50% smaller, but has a whole lot more functionality built into it. It's got a new generation of electronics in it, so it's lower power. That's how we make the device smaller, but it also has additional functionality for multiple analytes. So you get it has the capability to do that. It also has some really advanced features in order to enhance accuracy and reliability even further. Because as we've seen over time, accuracy and reliability is one of the most important things CGM does, whether it's powering an AID system, or it's someone who is determining, "Hey, do I have an issue with my metabolic health?" Accuracy and reliability is key for that, and that's part of that G8 platform. To the specifics on the analytes that we're working on. There are multiple that we're working on.
We see, you know, a multitude of use cases for a wearable that can measure glucose continuously, as well as other analytes. Ketones is certainly one of those. You know, when I think about ketones, so I think about there's an opportunity outside of diabetes, more in the, you know, ketogenic diets, people who are doing intermittent fasting. It really could be a benefit to have a continuous ketone sensor in that type of an environment alongside of a glucose sensor. I think that's one of the things we're exploring. We're also looking at alternate analyte technologies to put inside glucose, to look at other chronic diseases: kidney disease, liver disease. There's some opportunities there that, we feel we could make an impact, and so we're in the process of both looking at those business opportunities as well as the technology to drive it.
But G8 is certainly designed to be a multi-analyte platform.
So, Jereme, remind me on the timing. You gave some window after G7. I don't know, it's like two to four years or something like that. Can you remind us of what you've said, that window? And could you be, I mean, talk about whether it's on the early or later end, because it's pretty wide.
We typically, in terms of... You're talking about G8-
Yeah
... the launch timeframe. So we typically go in four, four- and- a- half- year launch cycles. And so we launched G7 late 2022, early 2023, and we typically go in those four, four-and-a-half year launch cycles. And this is tracking in that general ballpark. We'll have more specifics as we get closer to it. We've got a history, right? G6 launched in 2018. Four and a half years later, we launched G7. Certainly, G5 to G6 was about a similar timeframe, a little shorter than that. So we've shown you that's about the windows that make sense. And that's how we typically plan our business and our capital investment cycles, et cetera.
So it sounds like if, for example, G8 comes out in 2027 and Abbott's out with the dual ketone glucose sensor in 2026, you don't think this is a big competitive threat to you, at least, you know, in 2026?
No, not really, because the way you got to think about it is, you know, the patient population, and the products. And if you look at G7 and what it offers, people with diabetes, particularly on insulin, which is what we're talking about here, the most important safety feature of a product for someone with diabetes on insulin is, hypoglycemia safety. Right? Safety from going low. That can be deadly, if not managed properly. And G7 has the Urgent Low Soon alert, which gives our users a heads-up alert when they're going low, so that they can actually treat that low before it actually occurs. That's a really critical, clinically proven feature of G7 that resonates really well with prescribers and, patients, and that's obviously something you give up if you're going to try a different product.
There's all the other features around G7 as well. You know, when you think about diabetic ketoacidosis, DKA, and that's a lot of what we're talking about here with ketone sensing levels. The number one way to avoid DKA is to maintain normal blood glucose levels. And the best way to predict a ketone level is off of a glucose level. So we do think that in, you know, all the clinical studies that we've seen, especially the ones that we've run with Dexcom, DKA events go down to almost zero when you've got someone using a CGM sensor because they're managing their glucose, and they're not getting into this condition where their body... Glucose too high, they can't use it, so they're, you know, using, producing ketones.
So we do feel that while a part of the portfolio going forward, we're not concerned about that. We'll obviously watch it, and we'll watch how the clinical environment evolves over time and how standards evolve. But at this point in time, we're comfortable with our portfolio and how it's going to compete.
Okay, that's helpful. Let's move to 2026 . We talked a little bit about the LRP already. The Street's modeling about 16% next year growth versus about 14% this year. Talk about just kind of the puts and takes and just kind of reaction to where you think, you know, where consensus is right now.
Yeah. So, you know, we don't want to get into 2026 till we provide guidance for it, and so. But, and I understand the questions out there. It's why, you know, when we talk about an LRP, and Jake's alluding to strong double-digit growth, is we are very, very bullish on this business. I mean, to the point, I mean, we're buying shares back right now. So for what it's worth, I know our share buyback's out there. We're buying them because we do believe in this business. In terms of how you're thinking about 2026 and what the factors are? Look, the factors are we've got the biggest expansion we've ever had in coverage in Type 2 N IT. Just really starting in this third quarter is our third PBM.
All of those things annualize as you move into next year, so those are certainly interesting tailwinds. A lot of the price volume deltas we've even talked about start to peel off a bit. We talked about the drivers in the back half of this year. All of those annualize as you move into next year, and there's multiple winds that are coming. We also know behind the scenes, we're getting more winds in the non-insulin space as we go into the renewal cycle. So the major formularies have covered us, but then the sub-formularies, we're in the process of winning across those as well. You've got massive expansions in coverage. A sales force that's finally got a year underneath their belt, is able to really get out and get onto those call points.
Samples in the cupboard supply, you know, ultimately coming up to the levels we'd expect it to do. International wins as well as we move out their product portfolio with both G7, Dexcom ONE+ , competing in tenders. Again, remember, these tenders come in three-year cycles, and we're winning more and more tenders as we move out there. There's a lot of opportunities in that growth algorithm to really finish out twenty twenty-five strong, and the best way to have a great twenty twenty-six is to finish twenty twenty-five out strong. That's what we're working on right now. We'll give you the twenty twenty-six numbers as we get closer.
... That's helpful. Jereme, on the margins, I mean, the guidance this year implies you kind of exit this year at, like, 66% gross margin, somewhere in that ballpark.
Yeah.
I think that's come up on maybe one of the last few earnings calls.
Mm-hmm.
A pretty steep ramp.
Mm-hmm.
My question is, with 15-day, we can all do the math, that's a big gross margin tailwind. I think the guidance this year is about 62%. So the full year, you exit at 66%, about. How should we think about next year? You were at 65%, I think, peak. It seems like given the exit rate here in 15 days, you should at least be at 65% next year.
Yeah. So, you know, again, we'll give 2026 guidance, but let me give you some detail points, which I think is helpful as you start to think about it. You know, clearly, we talked about getting to a $10 sensor and then going beyond that over time. And we talked about doing that by the end of 2025 into 2026. We're right on that pathway in our standard costs. So that's an excellent driver. That becomes part of all of our plans around margin. Then you throw in a 15-day sensor, right? That's a significant opportunity as well. So those two opportunities, plus some of the channel mix dynamics, kind of slowing down over the course of future years, really puts us in a great position from a margin perspective.
So while we're not ready to give, you know, margin numbers for 2026 and beyond, it will be part of the LRP. We will be going through it, but there's a lot of tailwinds, right? We had a pretty tough first half of the year with some, I'm not going to call them standard COGS, but O-COGS. So your classic, you know, freight, and we had some write-offs. We had a recall reserve that we put on the books in the second quarter that was about 100 basis points of a headwind.
I think when you start to think those things and you peel all of those off, you can see how our trajectory over the course of the year is moving, and that's consistent with the volume CGM going through the channels, the economies of scale you see playing out in Malaysia, the standard cost coming down to $10 15-day just continuing to be a bigger and bigger piece of our P&L going forward. All of those things leave us excited for 2026, and we'll give you some numbers around that in future years here soon.
Yeah. Just some additional colors around... You know, we're still expediting quite a bit of freight for this year.
Mm-hmm.
That's continuing to decrease as we get to the back half of the year. It's helping. We will be starting up our new factory in Ireland next year. So that'll be part of the gross margin. It'll factor in there, too. But you know, I think as we look at the business going forward, 15-day, and ultimately our G8 product. G8's been designed with very aggressive cost targets that you know, Jereme talked about the $10 sensor on the G7, sensor cost on G7. Obviously, G8 is set below that by a pretty aggressive target. And the team's doing a really nice job kind of coming in line with what we want we have targeted for it.
So there's a lot of opportunity for gross margin expansion there over time, as we continue to look at it.
And I just wanted to ask about competitive bidding before we run out of time. I believe you submitted comments. I don't think they've posted publicly yet. Is there anything you could share on what you're recommending to CMS?
Sure. So as we look at competitive bidding, there's the proposal that was out there, and there's a lot of different aspects to it. I think our number one focus here is ensuring that there's not an interruption of beneficiaries. Today, there are thousands of DME suppliers, over two thousand, that supply CGM to beneficiaries, and bill Medicare. And so as part of this proposal is to reduce that number to a smaller set. And our goal there in thinking about that is let's-how would you do that and not be disruptive? So we've actually recommended that CMS delay this process and think more about the supplier base, as well as some of the changes in the categorization of CGM moving to the pay-as-you-go, the rental-type model.
Which we think is not a bad idea because it allows people access to the latest technologies. But it's something that needs to be taken carefully because this could be quite disruptive, and the last thing CMS or Dexcom or anybody really wants is disruption to beneficiaries.
That's perfect. So Jake, about 30 seconds left. Feel free to go a little bit over, but I want to give you the last word here. A really good discussion. Appreciate you being here, both you and Jereme. Any closing remarks, anything you want to highlight that we didn't touch upon?
Yeah, I would just say, you know, as we look to the future, it's extremely bright. We have this tremendous opportunity with the current, you know, market, as well as continued coverage expansion. And I think if you look at, as an investor, you know, how Dexcom is valued at this point in time, you know, I think our growth rates of, you know, strong double-digit into the future are, you know, maybe not reflective in the current valuation.
All right. Perfect. We'll end it there. Thank you.