Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Brinker International Q4 FY 2022 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode, and the floor will be open for questions and comments after the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mika Ware, VP of Finance and Investor Relations at Brinker. Ma'am, the floor is yours.
Thank you, Paul, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating on today's call. With me are Kevin Hochman, our Chief Executive Officer and President, and Joe Taylor, our Chief Financial Officer. Results for the quarter were released earlier this morning and are available on our website at brinker.com. As is our practice, Kevin and Joe will first make prepared comments related to our operating performance and strategic initiatives. Then we will open the call for your questions. Before beginning our comments, I would like to remind everyone of our safe harbor regarding forward-looking statements. During our call, management may discuss certain items which are not based entirely on historical facts. Any such items should be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
All such statements are subject to risk and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ from those anticipated. Such risk and uncertainties include factors more completely described in this morning's press release in the company's filings with the SEC. Of course, on the call, we may refer to certain Non-GAAP financial measures that management uses in its review of the business and believes will provide insight into the company's ongoing operations. With that said, I will now turn the call over to Kevin.
Thanks, Mika, and good morning, everyone. With this being our first call since Wyman's retirement, I wanted to take a moment to recognize him as the leader of our great company for the past nine years and to thank him for our many strategic accomplishments. In addition to being a coach and a friend to so many Brinker heads, Wyman led growth of our brand, significant technology improvements, and developed an industry-leading off-premise business. I know he's listening and cheering us on, so on behalf of our 62,000 team members, thank you, Wyman, for entrusting your legacy to us and preparing us for the future. This organization has a solid foundation, well-known brands that have stood the test of time, an ownership model that allows us to move quickly, a strong leadership team, and the most dedicated operators in the industry.
During my first two months on the job, I've spent a lot of time in the field with our restaurant teams and our above restaurant leaders to better understand their challenges and to exchange ideas on how we can accelerate the business together. I'm happy to share they are hungry for growth, and they have great ideas on how we can make running restaurants easier, more profitable, and a better experience for both our team members and for our guests. While I'm forming our longer-term growth strategy with our senior executive team in order to deliver better results over time, we must deliver meaningful improvements to the four-wall economics of owning a Chili's and owning a Maggiano's.
We're working quickly to identify the things we can do to grow the business sustainably, improve the guest experience, reduce cost and complexity, and implement more strategic pricing, which will in turn expand restaurant margins and grow profits. Our evolved pricing strategy will include providing focused everyday value for guests who need it, but we'll move away from frequent and deep discounting. We will also right-size the mix of everyday menu items offered on deal, but we'll make sure there's something available for the cash-strapped customer who needs a superior value to enjoy casual dining. We will also do a better job of recovering expenses for inflated commodities, as well as the added cost for delivering Chili's, Maggiano's, and our virtual brands. I have chartered two teams of senior executives to make quick interventions that will build momentum in our business.
One team is dedicated to near-term ideas to drive sustainable and profitable sales layers. They have been charged with identifying customer insight-driven sales opportunities, as well as bringing exciting new initiatives to our dining rooms to help accelerate traffic recovery. The other team is charged with simplifying operations so we can improve our guest experience. We will take unnecessary cost and complexity out of the business, which will free up labor to reinvest in the things that will help us win with the guest. The team is looking at all aspects of operations, from focusing the menu to streamlining back-of-house prep to eliminating time-consuming process that doesn't add value to our guest experience. We shared some of those early ideas with our operators at our annual Chili's general manager conference last week, and I have to say the team is very excited to get after it.
I have also asked our Chili's executive team to refocus the portfolio of projects we are working on to prioritize the most important and stop the ones that won't have a meaningful impact on our core business. I'm very pleased with the progress we are making on the prioritization front. As for our longer-term strategy, our biggest opportunity is also to focus on the core Chili's business. We must identify how our brand can uniquely add value for guests in a modern and relevant way, strengthen our positioning within casual dining, leverage technology to remove friction for guests and team members, and continue to reduce unnecessary complexity, all of which should lead to a better guest experience, higher sales, and stronger overall economics. I'm also very pleased to share that we brought on George Felix as our new Chili's Chief Marketing Officer.
George is known for taking well-known brands and reminding customers what makes the brand special in a contemporary, relevant way. He is currently working to define our North Star positioning in the market, which will help us make strategic choices on marketing, as well as help guide us on where to focus operations and improve our guest experience. I'm excited that George is already making an impact with several of our sales driving and simplification initiatives. As for Maggiano's, it's on a good trajectory. The improvements we made to both off-premise business and removing cost from the middle of the P&L during COVID has allowed the brand to emerge much stronger. Maggiano's menu travels off-premise exceptionally well, and now that dining rooms are coming back, we have lots of runway for growth.
I couldn't be prouder of the work that Steve Provost and his team have led to get Maggiano's through the pandemic, which I would expect will continue to be a source of growth for our business. We find ourselves in interesting times with the inflationary environment, a dimmer economic outlook, and a wary consumer. I'm confident the interventions we're putting in place today to simplify operations, to win with the guests, to implement more strategic pricing, to launch sales-driving initiatives, and to take cost out of the business will help us fight through our near-term challenges. It will also build the momentum we need to put the business in a stronger position for longer term sustainable growth. Now I'll hand the call over to Joe to walk you through the numbers. Go ahead, Joe.
Hey. Thank you, Kevin, and welcome to the quarterly earnings calls, and good morning, everyone. As detailed in this morning's press release, Brinker reported total revenues of $1.022 billion for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022. Consolidated comp sales for the quarter rose 3.1% as pricing and mix increases offset negative traffic. Fourth quarter adjusted EPS was reported at $1.15. Now, let me unpack several of the pieces from the top line through the bottom line results. As a reminder, we had a 53rd week in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021, which impacts the year-over-year comparison of revenues, margins, and EPS for the recently completed quarter and fiscal year. All restaurant comp sales are stated as 52-week comparisons.
At the brand level, Chili's comp sales on a year-over-year basis were positive 0.3%, lapping fourth quarter comp sales of 59.8% in the prior year. Looking at sales performance relative to the pre-COVID environment, fourth quarter average weekly sales of $59,500 were up 4.5% when compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019. Traffic was negative at Chili's for the quarter and decelerated throughout as some guests appeared to react to the challenging inflationary environment, particularly during the weeks of very elevated gas prices. We also experienced approximately a 1% negative sales impact to the quarter as some restaurants were not able to fully open dining rooms, particularly at peak times, or had to throttle back online orders given limited staff availability.
I would note that Chili's traffic trends since the end of the quarter saw sequential improvement into August, although they remain in the mid-single digit negative territory. We did see positive sales and traffic in Chili's dining rooms for the quarter as guests returned to more normal dine-in routines. At the same time, their off-premise channels remained strong, constituting approximately 34% of sales during the quarter. Maggiano's continued its solid recovery, posting positive restaurant comp sales of 30% for the quarter, driven by positive price, favorable mix, and strong traffic from the return of their dining room guests. When compared to pre-COVID fourth quarter of fiscal 2019, average weekly sales increased 7.3%. Importantly, the post-COVID level of the brand's off-premise business remains intact at above 20% of sales, providing a meaningful avenue to improve guest frequency as the brand moves forward.
Brinker's franchise and other revenue increased year-over-year due to incremental gift card breakage and increased banquet revenue related to Maggiano's. Moving further down the P&L, our fourth quarter restaurant operating margin was 10.3%, down from prior year due to the magnitude of inflation we experienced throughout the major categories of restaurant margin. Restaurant margin was also negatively impacted by approximately 80 basis points from lapping the 53rd week of the prior year. Food and beverage costs as a percent of company sales were unfavorable 310 basis points compared to prior year. As you might expect, this was driven by higher commodity costs with inflation hitting close to 15% for the quarter, a high for the fiscal year. Every major commodity category was negatively impacted, with poultry being our largest year-over-year increase.
Chicken mix is high across our menus, with approximately 52% of our overall protein mix exposed to the high cost dynamics of the poultry market. Fortunately, we're now starting to see steady cost reductions for chicken working their way into our supply chain, a trend that has the potential to create favorable cost comparisons as we move further into the fiscal year. Labor for the quarter was unfavorable 70 basis points, primarily driven by wage rate increases in the 6%-7% range. Additional hours utilized in the restaurants as we incrementally staffed our dining rooms and continued elevated levels of training expense for new team members as a result of higher turnover rates than we traditionally experience. Restaurant expense was unfavorable 280 basis points as higher energy prices inflated our utility expense and we experienced higher rent and increased repair and maintenance costs.
We also lapped a one-time advertising related credit of approximately $6 million taken in the fourth quarter of the prior fiscal year. Operating cash flow for the fourth quarter and fiscal year remained strong, with $41 million and $252 million recorded for those time frames respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter totaled $100 million, bringing the fiscal year adjusted EBITDA to $355 million. Now turning to our outlook for fiscal year 2023. This morning's press release included several target ranges for our current fiscal year. Our cautious view of economic conditions, particularly for our value-oriented guests, reflects negative traffic expectations in the low single digits for Chili's. We believe the significant headwinds from commodity inflation will lessen as we move through the year, a trend that could continue for a period beyond the current fiscal year.
Our year-over-year increase in food and beverage costs are forecasted to be at their highest point almost 400 basis points in the current first quarter before narrowing mid-year and turning favorable year-over-year by fourth quarter. For the year, food and beverage costs are expected to be up in the neighborhood of 100 basis points. For the full year, we have the following expectations. Revenues in the $3.9-$4 billion range, CapEx in the $155-$165 million range, weighted average shares in the 44-45 million-share range, and annual adjusted EPS in the range of $2.45-$2.85 for the fiscal year 2023. As it relates to pricing, we are planning near-term pricing actions at both brands.
Chili's is expected to exit the first quarter at close to 8% pricing, a level the brand will maintain throughout the fiscal year. Maggiano's will exit the first quarter in the mid-5% range and is anticipated to average closer to 7% for the year. Regarding restaurant development, the schedule for our current fiscal year has slowed somewhat as several anticipated openings have pushed into fiscal 2024. We now anticipate opening 19 new locations during the fiscal 2023 year. Let me provide some insights on quarter one. Our current first quarter is likely to be the low point of our operating results for the fiscal year as we work through the cresting of inflationary pressures for our brands.
With that in mind, let me provide some specific insights for the quarter that also help define the expected meaningful positive progression of operating performance as we move into and through the remaining quarters of the year. As is typical, we expect the first quarter to be our lowest revenue quarter, generating between $920 million and $930 million of company sales for the period. The year-over-year impact of inflationary increases for the first quarter will increase costs in all the major categories of restaurant margin. Food and beverage expenses alone are expected to be up more than $50 million through the quarter. When combined with the lower revenue of this quarter, we expect restaurant operating margin to be between 4.5% and 5.5% for the first quarter.
This restaurant margin will result in an overall operating loss for the quarter, with a negative operating margin expected in the mid-3% range and first quarter adjusted EPS estimated in a range of -$0.70 to -$0.60. While we anticipate a disappointing start to the fiscal year, we maintain clear line of sight to meaningfully improved operating performance throughout the year as incremental pricing, lower food and beverage costs, and sales driving initiatives all kick in during subsequent quarters. On behalf of the Brinker leadership team, we're pleased to have Kevin on board. He has quickly focused the team on simplifying operations, improving four-wall economics, and driving growth in the core business.
I'm confident this will not only move us through the current, more difficult operating environment in better form, but will provide the foundation for sustainable long-term growth and better profitability for Brinker and its brands. With my comments now complete, let us turn it back over to Paul to moderate, your questions.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the floor is now open for questions. If you have any questions or comments, please press star one on your phone at this time. We ask that while posing your question, you please pick up your handset if listening on speakerphone to provide optimum sound quality. Please hold while we poll for questions. The first question is coming from David Palmer from Evercore ISI. David, your line is live.
Thanks. Good morning. Just a question on strategy, Kevin. You talked about some opportunities to improve the economics of the four walls with you know perhaps pricing being a part of that. But I'm wondering more about the investment areas that you see as an opportunity. You know, is that labor? Is that marketing? You know, how are you thinking about ways that you can improve that guest experience that you were talking about and drive sales in your highest margin business? Thanks.
Yeah, thanks for the question, David. We're thinking about it in two ways. One is there's some short-term interventions that we have to make that we cannot wait to make those interventions based on where the business environment is now. You know, what I've had the team working on is the short-term wins, and then we'll talk in a second about what we're doing from a longer term basis. You know, I've charged the team with how do we improve restaurant margins quickly. Obviously the number one thing is grow comp store sales. We've got a growth team that we've spun up that is looking at what are different areas that we can quickly grow the business and kinda mitigate some of the headwinds of traffic that we've seen.
Obviously strategic pricing, which we talked about in our prepared comments. There is a significant reduction in discounting that we're working on. That's in a couple of areas. One is, we give away a lot of free food in our My Chili's Rewards. There's probably a better way to do that, and still maintain the traffic that that drives without, you know, constantly giving away free food every week. As well as redoing some of the value sections of our menu so that we don't have so much of our menu mix on deal, but still have very attractive, exciting offers on home meals for that guest that's cash strapped that otherwise couldn't enjoy casual dining.
We're also working on some cost reductions that will also help with labor, with simplification in the restaurant. Specifically, that's eliminating low mix or redundant menu items, eliminating redundant pantry SKUs that are in the back of the restaurants, removing unneeded dishware, which will help with both labor as well as some cost on smallwares, eliminating unneeded process that happen, that don't really help the guest, but end up being literally years of labor hours annually that we're spending money on, and reducing administrative work in the back of the restaurants that's not helping the guest.
We also are working on some new item innovation to drive traffic, which I'm excited that you'll see in the next couple of weeks start to roll out, which will also help drive some traffic in our bar. The last thing that we're doing is updating our strategic loyalty program to drive more traffic with reducing some of those discounts I was telling you. That's kind of the short-term interventions that we're making. I'm meeting with my leadership team off-site in the next couple of weeks that we're gonna talk about what are the big things that we need to do over the next few years, you know, to unleash both restaurant margins and accelerated growth for our business.
I think those are the big discussions on labor and equipment and, you know, all the things that we need to make long-term improvements in the guest experience. I hope, you know, when we're, you know, ready to surface what those interventions are, that we'll be able to share them with all of you.
Thanks. I'll pass it on.
Thank you. The next question is coming from Nicole Miller Regan from Piper Sandler. Nicole, your line is live.
Thank you, so much. One for you, Joe first, and then I have one for you, Kevin, as well, if I can sneak it in. Joe, you said something about dining room's 34%. Can you walk us through, please, in the fourth quarter or even for the year, frankly, doesn't matter, the construct of the revenues for the dining room off-premise, and I guess kind of the everything else bucket, but it would be nice to get at the It's Just Wings.
Yeah, Nicole, I think the comment you're referring to is 34% in the fourth quarter of Chili's sales mix was off-premise, which is relatively consistent with-
That was off-prem. Okay.
That was off-premise. We did see, you know, slight traffic improvement and positive comp in the dining rooms for the quarter. You're starting to see, I think, a little bit more of a normalization of that dine-in experience. The relative mix dine-in to off-premise has remained relatively consistent in that kinda 2/3, 1/3, you know, mixing area over the course of the year.
Perfect. Just wanna match that up with what margins might be in those channels. Kevin, can you talk about you know the customer base you have today, and as you think through the strategy options, and totally understand you're thinking through them, is it changing that mix? Is it changing the frequency? Both? Like, how are you thinking about that?
Well, we have to start with just who our customer base is today, and it's pretty broadly spread out. It's not like we're, you know, over-represented with low-income guests or high-income guests. It's pretty much representative of the casual dining population. We have to play a barbell on this, right? Number one, we have to make sure that low-income guest that, you know, is extremely cash strapped, how do we make sure that we have offerings on the everyday menu that they know they can get an affordable meal at Chili's and be excited about that and continue to come in.
On the flip side, we've got to mitigate how much trade down that we get from our guests that can afford more, as well as start to innovate so that we can drive both check and traffic with that guest. We think there are a lot of opportunities, both in terms of food innovation, as well as in drink innovation to drive higher check, guest check, as well as drive more traffic with those guests.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is coming from Chris O'Cull from Stifel. Chris, your line is live.
Thank you. Good morning, guys. I had a question for-
Morning, Chris.
I had a question for Joe and Kevin. First, Kevin, I'm interested in hearing your assessment of the virtual brands and maybe how important you believe those brands will be to the company's future growth.
Virtual brands will continue to play a meaningful role in our business. I mean, they're currently about 6% of mix. You know, they're a part of our business now. That said, we do need to right-size the time and attention and investment for a sales layer that's 6% of the business. Specifically, we have to make sure that we're right-sizing the amount of incremental pantry SKU ingredients that we need to service these brands. For example, on the Maggiano's virtual brand, it's currently 26 unique SKUs to service about 2% of the business. That is just too much, right? We've got to make sure that we cut that number probably by more than half.
We think it will retain most of the sales mix on that business, but make it a whole lot easier for our team members to run that part of the business, as well as mitigate a lot of the food waste that you know shows up in cost in our business. The opportunity on It's Just Wings is, it's a lot less in terms of simplification because it was designed, I think, exceptionally well to marry within our kitchen. There's really two things we're working on in that brand. One is, we have a smoked wing on that lineup that is extremely low mixing. It provides a lot of food waste. We think that most of that volume will migrate back into It's Just Wings.
We think that we can improve the P&L on It's Just Wings by eliminating that item. The other thing that we're working on in It's Just Wings is, because a lot of those orders come in a very tight window, and typically during, you know, that kind of busy dinner service, we get kind of stopped up sometimes on zone one, which is our fry zone. We've got to make sure that we figure out ways to build capacity in that area because I think both It's Just Wings as well as in the Chili's business, that zone one will be a source of growth going forward. We're working very closely with our operations team on understanding how we can free up some capacity in zone one.
The other things that we're doing to grow the business, we're gonna take pricing on virtual brands as the vast majority of business goes out to delivery customers, who are much more focused on convenience and are willing to pay for that convenience. I know that from my pizza days. We are gonna be taking some of the virtual brand investment and putting it back on core Chili's. If you just look at the numbers, even in just off-premise, you know, core Chili's does roughly five to six times the business than our virtual brands. We think there's also opportunity, not just in the virtual brands, but growing off-premise on the core Chili's business. We also have some growth ideas for virtual brands.
One of the big ideas that I'm really bullish about that we're gonna be rolling out next week is taking all of the It's Just Wings, wing flavors and curly fries and putting them on core Chili's. If you think about that, you know, the core Chili's does about 24 times the sales of It's Just Wings, so why not take these amazing flavors and these amazing curly fries, put them into the Chili's business as a premium at the bar? We are very bullish on what that could mean for the business. Likewise, we have an amazing, we call it the Chicken Crispers. It's a chicken tender. Why not take that product on Chili's, put it into It's Just Wings to create a meaningful business in that business?
Chicken tenders in the chicken segment is a lot bigger than chicken wings, so we think, you know, we'll probably never sell more chicken tenders than chicken wings on It's Just Wings, but we think it could be a meaningful source of growth without any new, incremental SKUs or incremental training or incremental process for the back of the house. We're very bullish on being able to leverage some of the great items on It's Just Wings on core Chili's, as well as doing it vice versa to grow both businesses.
That's helpful. Thank you. Just had another quick one for you, Joe. It looks like the company expects earnings to increase about 18%-19% for the last three quarters of the year, assuming the midpoint of your guidance for the first quarter and the full year. Is that about right, and are there any unique things that's gonna drive that growth?
Yeah, it definitely is a forecast that obviously starts off in a negative position and ramps up quickly as we move to the last three quarters. A number of things. Obviously, you know, the pricing initiatives we've talked about, the elimination of discounting has an incremental impact as we move through the fiscal year. The commodity, you know, the inflation cycle in total, but specifically the commodity cycle, we see materially improving as we get through the year and actually turn to a year-over-year favorable dynamic as we move into that fourth quarter. Yeah, that hockey stick is in place, and we have a pretty good line of sight to it too.
I think you're kind of hitting the dynamics based on the points of the guidance that you're referencing. So yes.
Great. Thanks, guys.
Thank you. The next question is coming from Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays. Jeffrey, your line is live.
Great. Thank you very much. Two questions. First, Kevin, excited to obviously have someone from the industry leading the team. Just wondering if you can maybe talk about the differences you see between running a QSR versus a casual brand, and seemingly you ran a franchise system. This is primarily a company-operated system. So if you could just talk about maybe the lateral implications or the potential synergies that you see, you know, maybe what your greatest strengths are as you make that transition from one side of the business to the other.
Well, you know, it's a great question. You know, I'd start with some of the real positives that I see. You know, the fact that we own, you know, most of our own restaurants has allowed us to move a whole lot faster, I think, than we would be able to do in a franchise system. The teams have really responded well, and it's allowed us to move very fast.
I think as we get further down the road in terms of the technology improvements, you know, one of the things that I'm talking about, you know, with our leadership team is what can we use technology to do to make it both a better experience for the guest as well as, you know, take some of the work out of the team members' hands. You know, in a world where we own most of our own restaurants, that gets a whole lot easier to test and roll out a whole lot faster. Technology, as you know, and everybody that covers the industry is, you know, where everything is going, right? I think that's gonna be huge advantages for us.
I think there's some things I can bring from like, kind of my QSR days that, I think can help the business. I think, more strategic pricing, I think QSR does an exceptional job of understanding, you know, how do we make sure that the great values that we offer, advertise and drive traffic. We need to make sure that we have industry-leading, value, with our 3 for Me program that starts at $10.99, and yet, you know, in my experience, because we haven't spent a whole lot of dollars on it, a lot of customers don't know about it, right? You know, one of the lessons in QSR is, you know, if you're gonna have a great value, you gotta make sure that you talk about it.
Quite frankly, been a little bit invisible, you know, in our business, the last few years, and we need to get back on air once we're ready to do that. That's one example. Another thing I think that we can bring is, you know, how do we manage, the merchandising of value and the merchandising of items at the restaurant level to make sure that we're driving as much, check and trade up as we can, as well as minimizing trade down. I think these are very obvious opportunities that I've seen early on and that we're working on, and I think you're gonna see improvements, in our restaurant margins because of some of those learnings I'm bringing from QSR.
Understood. The follow-up, just because of the fact that you come from a portfolio of brands, you know, I was wondering whether you could offer some thoughts on how you see Brinker best positioned. When you look back a decade or so, I mean, Brinker had eight or nine brands now running two, along with a couple of virtual brands. I'm just wondering how you think about a portfolio versus single brand approach, whether you have any views on that as you look forward.
Yeah, you know, I don't have a perspective on that now. I know that's probably not the answer that you want to hear. You know, I'm really focused on improving the four wall economics of both Chili's and Maggiano's, and that's really what I've kept the field team focused on right now. Obviously, if we can do that successfully, that opens up a whole lot more opportunities in the future for whatever we wanna do in terms of a long-term strategy. It starts with making sure that we have very strong restaurant margins and four wall economics because we own all these Chili's and Maggiano's, and that's what I'm committed to doing with the team.
Understood. Thank you. Best of luck.
Thank you. The next question is coming from Andrew Strelzik from BMO. Andrew, your line is live.
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I just had two for me. First is a follow-up. Do you have a sense based on, obviously, the cost environment pricing that you're talking about, some channel shifts that have occurred over the last couple of years, do you have a sense for what restaurant margin this business should be able to achieve, kind of as you have a goal maybe in mind as you kind of work towards implementing the strategies that you've talked about? And then my other question is just on capital allocation priorities. You know, obviously, no buyback in the guidance, which is not unusual. Lower CapEx, it sounds like some delays on the unit growth. I'm just curious, should we expect any changes there kind of over time?
Does accelerating unit growth, which I know has been in the plan, does that make sense now? Thanks.
Yeah. Let me take the restaurant margin question, and then I'll kick it over to Joe on the new build question. We're kind of in the low double digits right now, I think, you know, between 10%-11% restaurant margins. We think that we can probably get to the mid-teens. Now, I don't know, I have a specific timetable exactly on when, but when we look at, I think we can get a couple of points when we think about strategic pricing and reducing the discounting, and then we think about operational improvements and leverage if we can get the business growing.
You know, I think mid-teens is achievable and that's where I'm gonna have the team focused on. I think if we can get to those numbers, certainly it's gonna unlock a lot of value for our business. You know, that's what I have the team laser focused on.
I think that goes right into the capital allocation nicely because obviously that will feed future capital allocation discussions as we go. Andrew, you're right. This year, capital allocation is pretty straightforward. We're focused on the CapEx dynamics, you know, that $155-$165, which is the same, you know, buckets we've typically seen in there from development to reimage to obviously a big chunk of that is, you know, routine maintenance expenses within the current fleet and IT. It's a fairly straightforward and typical construct on the CapEx side of the equation. The new build construction has slowed somewhat. The market's a little bit longer, you know, dated timelines on some of the construction.
You have seen some increased costs, which has caused us to pull back in different places to make sure that if we are constructing, we're constructing within a dynamic that we think we can get a good return. We've been pleased with the restaurant development we've done the last couple of years and the operational performance of that cohort. Yes, I'm comfortable as we kind of move forward continuing the restaurant development. We think it's a great opportunity to provide some incremental growth into the equation as we go forward.
Obviously, improving the four-wall economics is one of the best things we can do to continue to bolster the performance return of not only the existing fleet, but these new builds as we move them forward. We'll continue a new build piece of the equation. Other pieces of capital allocation down the road, obviously, we'll, you know, we'll look at those opportunities based on the performance, you know, of the overall company and the cash flow generation. That's kind of where the near term is with the opportunity down the road.
Great. Thank you very much.
Thank you. The next question is coming from Brian Mullan from Deutsche Bank. Brian, your line is live.
Hey, thank you. Just a little bit of a follow-up on development. You know, the 19 that you are gonna open this year, are these the ones that are simply under some form of construction now, and then you're pausing a bit for the rest of the time while the operations get tightened up, or is that not the case? Just a little clarity there. Kevin, it would be great to hear your longer-term thoughts on Chili's development opportunity, how you think about it over the long term. Do you need to see those mid-teens restaurant level margins restored before you'd really wanna lean in there aggressively? Just any thoughts on how you're thinking about it.
Brian, yeah, I think that's not a bad way to think about it. It's not universal to where we've gone from the higher 20s that we talked about down to 19, but we have pushed back, some have pushed back just on the timelines that it's taking to develop and open a new restaurant. We've also pushed back starting times for development and things of that nature. All those 19 are, you know, in the process, you know. You're talking about committed leases and in most cases, you know, some level of construction starting with that. It's most of those openings will take place in the first half of the fiscal year, a couple as you kind of move into the early part of the second half.
We'll continue to then develop what that pipeline looks, as we move more into the FY 2024 timeframe. We can communicate that as we kinda go through the rest of this fiscal year.
Yeah, to answer your question, how I think about development, I think it's kinda twofold. One is, as we complete our North Star work about, you know, where is Chili's positioning in the marketplace, I think that will help us think about what does the next gen Chili's look like. Obviously it's maybe not as big a dining room space, and it's optimized for off-premise. We certainly can optimize the kitchen if we understand the North Star better. That will create, you know, obviously lower build costs. If concurrently we can improve restaurant margins, that will obviously accelerate paybacks, right?
You know, in order to answer your specific question of, like, are we waiting to get to, you know, mid-double digit margins to start, you know, to start accelerating builds again, it's hard to answer that question until we get into the details of, you know, how much cost can we take out of the building based on a next gen Chili's, as well as, you know, how fast we're accelerating margin improvement. I do think the faster we can get to better margins, the faster we can return to, you know, building again.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is coming from John Glass from Morgan Stanley. John, your line is live.
Thanks. Good morning. Congratulations, Kevin, great to hear your voice. First, Kevin, I just wanna maybe sort of put together the pieces as you drive or endeavor to restore traffic. You're talking about strategic pricing, you're talking about reducing a lot of discounting. Those generally don't coincide with better traffic. Was it your analysis that the discounting or the promotions on My Chili's Rewards just did not drive traffic, so removing them is not an impediment to restoring traffic? How do you make that decision, and why do you think there isn't risk to further degradation in traffic if you remove some of those promotions?
Yeah. Well, as you know, John, there's lots of different ways to drive traffic, right? You know, one of the things I think we need to evolve over time is driving the right traffic that is sustainable growth versus, you know, traffic for traffic's sake. Let me give you a couple thoughts of how I'm thinking about driving traffic, which I think is kind of at the heart of your question. You know, we have seen the low-income customer start to visit less often, which is why we've seen those traffic trends turn negative. We are implementing several initiatives to claw back as much of that traffic back.
The first thing is on that low-income customer that I think you're kinda referring to when you're talking about, you know, the ability for those discounts to drive traffic, and we simply need to do a better job of talking about the unbeatable value that we have on our 3 for Me menu. You know, specifically, you can get chips and salsa, a burger or fries, unlimited soft drink refills, and it's just $10.99. We have a few other entrées that start at that price point too. I will tell you, we had a famous broadcaster, Jeff Lewis, on his radio show. We didn't pay for this.
He just kinda went to a Chili's in Encino and just raved about how much food he got from, you know, at an $11 price point from Chili's. There's two observations from that, and then he talked about it for the next couple of days and brought another celebrity in with him. The first one is we have an unbeatable value at a time that customers need it the most. That was clear just hearing him rave about the amount of value that he got from that 3 for Me deal. The second thing that tells me is we have to do a much better job of talking about it so our guests are aware of that value, right? We have a great value in the restaurant today.
We don't plan on getting rid of it anytime soon. What are the things that we can do with our limited marketing dollars to make sure that we're driving awareness of that? Right now, we're spending our limited marketing dollars primarily either on, talking about, you know, free things that are available with the, My Chili's Rewards, or, you know, focused on, you know, digital off-premise and the virtual brand. I think there's opportunity right there. The second thing that we're doing is we're launching, what we're calling the Raise the Bar initiative to reignite traffic at the bar, which we think will spill over into the dining room too.
The Raise the Bar initiative includes a completely new drink lineup, a new bar food lineup, happy hour that's available every day, and the launch of NFL Sunday Ticket into our restaurants, which will drive traffic through sports viewership. Beyond NFL Sunday Ticket, we're looking at other things that we can use outside of football season to help driving traffic. Obviously, those are more full revenue guests that we can get in to enjoy food and drink. Then we're gonna reboot the My Chili's Rewards program. We probably will still give some things away, but it will be focused more on compressing the time between visits for our loyal guests. We think we can make that loyalty program more traffic driving, but less costly with a better strategy and execution based on key customer insights.
I do think that My Chili's Rewards will still play a big role in driving traffic, but I think there's probably a better way that we can utilize it going forward.
That's super helpful. Thank you. Joe or Kevin, the most recent trends you called out in the traffic declines, how much of that is the industry? In other words, you've talked about your share gains in the past. Is this idiosyncratic or more severe at Chili's than the industry or what you're experiencing, your view is just the industry slowdown in general?
I think the bulk of it is similar to what you've seen in the industry and heard other folks talk about. You know, when you look at the fourth quarter, for instance, you saw that traffic deceleration with June being the worst traffic positioning for the quarter, you know, which again coincided with a lot of the, you know, very excessive inflationary factors like, you know, $5 gas, average gas prices, things of that nature. I will say that, you know, we have not performed as well relative to the industry as I'd like to see us do. I think there's work for us to do in our house too that is beyond, you know, the macro environment.
That's when we focus on retaining team members, that's a big piece of the equation. We need to bring turnover down to make sure we can get dining rooms fully open, particularly on peak times and on the weekends, that we will not have throttling of the off-premise.
Online ordering system so that, you know, which is really their dining room, so we don't wanna constrain that piece of the equation too. Simplification, you know, is geared at helping to move the needle in that space. We're really very focused on the retention side to try and get back into that, you know, better than industry positioning on traffic. Some work to do there, but I think, you know, most of it was similar trends to what you saw from-
Thank you. The next question is coming from John Ivankoe from JP Morgan. John, your line is live.
Yes. Hi, thank you. You know, in listening to the call, when we talking about things like changes in loyalty, reduction of discounting, pricing, all seem to be very data-driven decisions. You know, I guess the question is, you know, did that data exist before, but, you know, whether it was feel or experience, just different decisions were made in the past? You know, do you have new data that's suggesting, you know, that some of these changes, you know, I guess, can be made in a positive manner? Or, you know, is this still a, you know, kind of a feel and experience-type of decision where, you know, we're making maybe some of these decisions without necessarily the support of data today? I have a follow-up.
Well, to answer your question, a lot of it is supported with data and/or testing. Some of it is moving faster than I think we would normally do, just given the circumstances. Some of it is just based on my experience with pricing and discounts on two other brands that I've kinda led were in a similar place of, you know, having a huge percentage of their mix, you know, on discount. In our example on Chili's, you know, 37% of our checks are moving with some type of discount, and that's just simply too high for our brand, and we just need to figure out ways to get that lower. It's not a question of, like, if we should do it's how we should do it.
You know, we're probably moving a little faster than we normally would, but, you know, we're gonna course correct on the things that we think we go too hard on. We do think that there, you know, we do have some pricing power in different areas in the business, between being a little bit slower than the industry last year on taking everyday pricing, making sure that we have really sharp pricing for that guest that's cash-strapped, that's available in the restaurant every day, which we're gonna maintain. Then the reduction of discounts over time, that we think will help us, you know, earn better pricing on the business. To answer your question, it's a combination of both.
The most important thing is that over time, we get to a more sustainable business with better four-wall economics and better restaurant margins.
That's very helpful. Thank you. Secondly, the KFC brand in the U.S., you know, really became a much stronger brand after it actually significantly shrank its footprint in the U.S. Is it, you know, it really, you know, decided, you know, where it wanted to be, with what type of customer, where they felt that, you know, the operations could be solid. Are there other opportunities, you know, specifically to Chili's, you know, for you to really rethink the portfolio and maybe, you know, kind of get better and stronger by being, you know, at least in the short term, smaller? How do you kinda see, I mean, if there's a way to, you know, compare and contrast, you know, the turnover opportunity at Chili's relative to what was successfully achieved at KFC in the U.S., if that's appropriate?
Hey, John, I think we're always gonna be taking a hard look at the performance dynamics of the fleet. Frankly, we may take an even harder look at, you know, that spectrum of restaurants that you're always gonna have some that are at the lower end of the spectrum. You might, you know, could we be a touch more aggressive on closing and relocating? I think as we kinda go forward, possibly. It's something we'll look a little deeper at and maybe not carry as many along. I think we've talked in the past about our ability to carry restaurants.
Again, since we own all of our restaurants and we can kinda bring the fleet along en masse, you know, we probably don't have to be bringing some of that level along as we have in the past. I don't see that as a radical change, though. I don't want to take you down a path that there's going to be a, you know, significant initiative anytime in the near term on meaningful closures. We won't be afraid to close a restaurant or not renew a lease in a lot of cases, if some of these get to expiry if we don't see an ability to improve the operation and performance of an individual restaurant.
Maybe a tick more than you've seen in the past, but nothing planned dramatically in the near- term.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is coming from Jared Garber from Goldman Sachs. Jared, your line is live.
Great. Thank you for the question. Over the last, maybe year or so, we've heard a lot about technology initiatives in the restaurant to help some operations. I think, Kevin, you talked a lot about ops simplification initiatives, moving forward. I just wanted to get a sense of, you know, maybe what's some of the initiatives that were in place in terms of AI and robotics that were being tested, and some other initiatives in the back of house and front of house, and how you think about those things going forward?
Yeah. We have a lot of opportunity in technology. You know, one of the things that the leadership team did when I first got here was we literally laid out all of the projects that we were working on on kind of a two-by-two. One was its ability to impact you know sales and profits in the next few years. The other axis is like the probability of success, how much you know investment and time we need to put into this. We made some strategic decisions to accelerate some projects and to stop other projects.
The robotics project I think you're probably referring to, we're pausing right now, but we are gonna try to accelerate what we call Kitchen of the Future III, which is equipment that will make it a lot easier, faster, and more consistent, and dramatically reduce cook times on majority of the items on our menu. We believe that getting speed of service up through that equipment will lead to turning tables faster and higher sales. You know, we are aggressively looking at technology as a way to improve restaurant margins and productivity. There are a couple other areas that we are looking at, we'll be talking about in terms of our long-term strategy.
There's clearly opportunity to remove friction for both our team members and guests with these, with better use of technology. For team members, there's clear opportunity in our heart of house or our back of house, with our kitchen display systems, improving the order flow and in the to-go area, which is now 35% of our business. There's also several tasks that we think that guests might wanna do for themselves with the right technology if we can deploy it properly in the restaurants, like seating, ordering, and payment. This would make it easier for the guests and reduce how much time our team members have to do those tasks for our guests today. We also have, we think, a pretty big opportunity in our mobile site interface.
The vast majority of our off-premise guests are using that mobile site to order, and we think we can make that easier and faster to help build stickier online customers. To directly answer your question, we're gonna stop some of those projects that we just didn't have a line of sight to a return on the business, but we're gonna double down and accelerate the ones that we think will have a more meaningful impact on restaurant margins and a quicker impact on our business.
Thanks. That's really helpful color. Then Joe, if I could just follow up on a question around pricing. I think you said the expectation is to run about 8% price for the full year at Chili's. So does that suggest that you'll be taking incremental price increases throughout the year to maintain that 8% level? Because presumably you'll have some price actions from 2020 to fiscal year 2022 rolling off at various points around the year. Just wanted to make sure I understood that commentary properly.
Yeah, you're understanding it correctly. We'll take, you know, a series of different price increases, not necessarily just menu price increases, obviously looking at a lot of different dynamics of where you can, you know, take actionable price. You'll probably actually see on a quarterly sequencing, Chili's tick up a little bit above that average level as you kinda move through the middle of the fiscal year. Depending on any, you know, incremental decisions we may make down the road, we've left ourselves the optionality on how we think about price in the second half of the fiscal year. You would then gravitate back into that kind of 8% range. That's kind of the flow of pricing for them.
Okay, great. Thanks so much.
Thank you. The next question is coming from Dennis Geiger from UBS. Dennis, your line is live.
Great. Thank you. Just first wanted to ask another on the pricing levels and really anything that you've seen with respect to pushback or resistance from the customer to date. Kevin, I know you spoke to having pricing power and you know, pricing below peers in past years. Just curious, what you've seen most recently from a feedback standpoint from customers?
Well, we continue to see mix be fine, so we haven't seen really any trade down. What we have seen is the traffic with that low-income guest tail off a bit. One of the things that we need to do is. We have two really superior values in our restaurants today. We have a $9 lunch combo, which, you know, if you look at the, you know, fast food index of combos, it's beneath that. That's casual dining, right? Then we have our 3 for Me program, which is essentially an appetizer, an entree, and unlimited drinks starting at $10.99.
These are both unbeatable values in the market, and so we have to do a better job of taking the limited marketing dollars that we have and making sure that we're shouting those things for the guests so that the low-income guests that literally wouldn't be able to choose casual dining unless they had those price points available to them are aware of them, right? That's why we're pivoting some of the dollars that we're spending on comps for My Chili's Rewards and trying to figure out how do we, you know, reinvest that back into advertising the everyday value that we have today that we think is unbeatable in the market.
You know, the other things that we're doing in terms of pricing, when we think about, like, reducing the number of items that are offered on, you know, on that 3 for Me menu, to just make sure we have a couple of things that are really good for that guest, but not discount large swaths of the menu, we think that will have a positive impact on pricing, reducing the number of free offers, which we talked about on My Chili's Rewards. The other thing I don't think we've talked about is just, you know, accelerating pricing and recovering the costs of delivering our food, both on Maggiano's, Chili's, and the virtual brands. Historically, we just haven't recovered all those costs, and we know that guest is very price inelastic and is really valuing convenience over menu price.
You know, it may not be in the context of, like, how you think about pricing power, but there clearly is opportunity and upside on pushing a little harder on those things in a smart way while protecting those opening price points for that guest that just desperately need that price point.
Very helpful. Just one more, if I could. Just on the food and beverage inflation side of things and the expectations there, what are the biggest drivers maybe for the fiscal 1Q target as far as poultry, you know, how much of a pressure is that based on the latest contract and maybe just kind of what you're seeing for the full year, how contracted you are for the full fiscal 2023? Joe Taylor, if you could kinda speak to that a little bit. Thank you.
Hi, Dennis. It's Mika. Actually, poultry and oils are probably the two biggest drivers of our Q1 inflation. For the first quarter, we are actually probably 99% contracted. We're more contracted as well into the second quarter, open in the back half of the year, where we do think the markets are gonna come down, but that's where we stand today.
Very helpful. Thanks, Mika.
Thanks, Dennis.
Thank you. The next question is coming from Chris Carril from RBC Capital Markets. Chris, your line is live.
Thanks. Good morning, and thanks for the question here. Can you talk about the staffing environment today, maybe focusing on turnover relative to pre-COVID levels? Joe, I think you had alluded to elevated turnover in the 4Q versus historical levels. Then I guess at a high level, how are you thinking about balancing all the strategic initiatives that you're anticipating with what you're seeing in staffing today?
Let me jump in on the first part and if Kevin, if you wanna jump in on the back half of where we can see that heading. We're running much higher turnover rates than we did pre-COVID. Retention is the area that we're really focusing on there. We're not having a difficulty from a hiring standpoint. The number of people staffed in the restaurants is fairly similar to pre-COVID, but it's the turnover rate that is generating higher than normal training expenses, utilization of overtime and some of those dynamics that keep that overall labor cost more elevated than we'd like to be. We're really focusing a lot of attention on how to improve the retention rates.
Then that starts with, you know, making sure we have the right dynamics of hiring practices in place, the right training programs. Our initiative around virtual training and onboarding, I think it's gonna be effective as we just start to deploy that into the restaurants. That is clearly a hyper-focus, you know, for how we improve the labor situation. We need to bring those levels, particularly for the hourly. GM turnover is very stable, where it needs to be. Improvements in the overall manager and then a lot of attention on the hourly side of the equation.
I think this is gonna be a work in progress. We do continue to have higher level of turnover versus pre-pandemic at the team member restaurant level that Joe referred to. During my listening tour in restaurants, you know, what I've learned is we don't have a problem in attracting enough folks to work in our restaurants. We have a challenge in retaining them. In talking with the operators, you know, what I heard is it's more difficult to work in a Chili's, and it's not as fun to work in a Chili's than it was pre-pandemic. I think we're competitive in terms of wage rates. It's more about the actual work. There's two big things that we're working on.
One is the simplification initiative, where we've got this team of senior executives working on things that are gonna make it easier to work in a Chili's. We're also spinning up some ideas on how to make it fun again to work in a Chili's. The simplification one is kinda more obvious and near-in. There's just a lot of tasks that we do in the back of the restaurant that don't necessarily help the guest experience and can be frustrating for team members. You know, I'll give you one example, you have an idea of the stuff we're working on.
We have this thing called portioning that we do for a lot of our proteins, which is, before service, we'll literally, like, count the number of shrimp, or we'll measure the amount of brisket, and we'll put that into a plastic bag, and then we'll stage that, you know, in a cooling area. You know, in my restaurant tours, I saw pretty much every morning, I just saw people just counting shrimp or measuring brisket. Just to give you a sense of, like, how much time that could be and how much money that could mean for our business, just one hour of prep per day per restaurant is roughly 46 years of labor that we're paying for annually when you add that all up, right?
When the team member said, "Well, I don't know why we, you know, count shrimp, count each shrimp and put them in a bag." I said, "Well, how would you do it?" They said, "When the customer orders a shrimp dish, I would count eight shrimp and not do it before service, right?" You know, that seems pretty logical and something that we could, you know, immediately do. Probably there was a time that when we put that in, that, you know, proteins we were really worried about the waste on them and, you know, labor rates weren't where they were. It might have been good decisions when we made those decisions 15 years ago.
Today, in a world where, you know, wage rates are where they are and, you know, turnover rates are where they are, and that's not, you know, the most fun task to do. Like, why don't we get rid of that and save millions of dollars in terms of labor that can either be redeployed back into the restaurant or potentially to the bottom line if we can change, you know, the amount of hours that we deploy to the business. So, you know, so many examples in our business that we can remove some of the cost and complexity out of our business, but don't really meaningfully impact the guest experience.
From a fun standpoint, there are plenty of ideas that we've heard from the restaurant teams that we think actually could not just make the business more fun to work in, but actually drive some traffic. You know, one of the things that we're bringing back that we had pre-pandemic that I heard from the restaurant teams that we announced at our conference last week is give back night. It's literally any of your guests in your local Chili's can ask for to use the restaurant for a night, and they will attract the guests, and 10% of the proceeds that night go to that guest's nonprofit charity. They will do, you know, the recruiting to bring guests into the restaurant because it's for, you know, a cause that they all care about.
Obviously, the team members love it because it's something they can give back to their communities. It's a form of driving traffic, and it's a whole lot of fun for everybody. There are so many different ideas that we can do both to simplify the restaurant and make it fun to work in a Chili's again. I think if we do those things, I think you'll see those turnover rates for our team members start to go down.
All right. Thank you, Kevin.
Thanks, Kevin.
All right. Thank you, Kevin, and thank you, Joe. Thank you everyone for joining us on the call today. That concludes our call, and we look forward to updating you on our first quarter results in November. Everyone, have a wonderful day.
Thank you, everybody.
Bye-bye.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.