Good day and welcome to the Everest Regroup Limited First Quarter twenty nineteen Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. Please be aware that each of your lines is in a listen only mode. At the conclusion of today's presentation, we will open the floor for questions. At that time, instructions will be given as to the procedure to follow if you would like to ask a question.
I would now like to turn the conference over to John Levinson. You may begin.
Thank you, and welcome to the Everest Regroup Limited twenty nineteen first quarter conference call. The Everest executives leading today's call are Dom Adeso, President and Chief Executive Officer Craig Howie, EVP and Chief Financial Officer John Doucette, EVP and President and CEO of the Reinsurance Division and Jonathan Zaffino, EVP and President and CEO of the Everest Insurance Division. Before we begin, I need to preface the comments on today's call by noting that our SEC filings include extensive disclosures with respect to forward looking statements. Management comments regarding estimates, projections and similar are subject to the risks, uncertainties and assumptions as noted in Everest's SEC filings. Management may also refer to certain non GAAP financial measures.
These items are reconciled on our earnings release and financial supplement. With that, I turn the call over to Dom Adesa.
Thank you, John. Good morning, and welcome to the call. It was a very strong financial quarter for Everest, with contributions to profit from reinsurance, insurance, and investments. We also continued to increase our market profile, with top line growth in both our reinsurance and insurance businesses. My colleagues will provide the details on our results, but before they do, I want to point out a few important insights.
The first relates to top line growth. Within the overall increases in gross written premium, there are classes of business being reduced, where rates are inadequate, terms and conditions are challenged, or in some cases the customers no longer desire to cover in whole or part. Nevertheless, given current market conditions, along with our meaningful capacity and experienced underwriting teams, Everest is seeing an increasing number of profitable opportunities, with the resulting increase in business overall. We are proud of the market position that we have built and appreciate the preferred status we have in the market with customers and intermediaries. Second is the underlying performance of our business.
We have detailed the change in business mix over the past few years and the impact on the loss and acquisition cost ratios. I note that this quarter, the attritional accident year loss ratio of 59.2% is very consistent with the result for the full year 2018. This is noteworthy for two reasons. First is that our loss selections do not yet reflect any underwriting actions taken, which is typically recognized as improvements are realized. And second, the earned premium in this quarter still reflects a good portion of business at 2018 rates.
Rate increases achieved at January 1 and April 1 reinsurance renewals and any further rate increases will be earned throughout the year, providing additional improvement to the attritional results. Turning to rates, although it is by no means a traditional hard market, I am encouraged by how the industry is responding to loss activity and trends. While capacity is available, there's a discipline emerging from both balance sheet and third party capital for cat related business. In addition to pricing, improving terms and conditions, which are essentially equivalent to rate improvement, are also gaining traction. Property pricing has been the most responsive, although it has taken two years of losses to bring change to the underwriting and pricing of the most challenging areas, notably wildfire and the AOB and LAE issues in Florida.
Beyond property, the pricing momentum is mixed. Classes of business where profitability is challenged are getting some much needed rate. There is also a renewed discipline around other classes including commercial auto and professional liability, also reflective of poor results. Other sectors including energy and excess casualty are firming in line with the recognition of advancing loss cost trends and a market that is tightening. And finally, the discipline in London precipitated by tightening capacity at Lloyd's and the increasing migration of business from the admitted markets to the E and S space is adding momentum to an improving market.
I'm not declaring victory by any stretch, but it is encouraging to see both the primary and reinsurance markets demonstrating a rational response to the issues at hand. Everest is in a fantastic position to capitalize on this improving market due to our fundamental strengths. Our focus on balance sheet strength and financial security is the starting point. The bedrock of our business is a promise to pay. And to that end, we have kept ample levels of capital, low financial leverage, and strong ratings.
Over the long term, I am confident that shareholders have benefited from this conservatism as it has allowed Everest to access the best business, even during times of market stress that otherwise could have gone elsewhere. Everest also has tremendous experience and longstanding relationships with the most important trading partners around the world. We have worked with some customers for over forty years, and as a result have a difficult to replicate highly diversified book of profitable business. And finally, Everest has and will continue to have a strategic focus on long term performance with a willingness to absorb volatility over the short term. In an improving market, our capacity, relationships, and long term focus are a very powerful combination.
One final thought worth highlighting is that Everest is increasingly known as a market leader within the specialty insurance segment. The RIMS conference this year certainly spoke to that dynamic. Last year, Everest Insurance achieved excellent growth and underwriting results. And here in the first quarter, accident year results are likely better than market expectations and many of our specialty insurance peers. While our insurance operations may get overlooked by investors sitting alongside one of the largest and premier reinsurance franchises in the world, the reality is that our insurance group is trending to end the year at record profits and will likely end the year ahead of many of its peers.
That is both a size and profit comment. Urge you to run the comps and include its fair share of investment income. Although Everest is clearly one entity, we have two distinct yet complementary businesses. And I encourage you to look at the value of each individually and the resultant sum of the parts. While both reinsurance and insurance benefit from being part of a larger group and the many synergies they create, they each have a great potential and value on their own and into the future.
With that, I turn the call over to Craig.
Thank you, Tom, and good morning, everyone. Everest had a solid quarter of earnings with net income of $349,000,000 for the first quarter of twenty nineteen. This compares to net income of $210,000,000 for the first quarter of twenty eighteen. The 2019 result represents an annualized net income return on equity of 17%. Net income included $74,000,000 of net after tax realized capital gains compared to $19,000,000 capital losses in the first quarter last year.
The 2019 capital gains were primarily attributable to fair value adjustments on the public equity portfolio. After tax operating income for the first quarter was $282,000,000 compared to $220,000,000 in 2018. This represents an annualized operating return on equity of 14%. These results were driven by strong underwriting results across the group, stable investment income, and lower catastrophe losses compared to the first quarter last year. The overall underwriting gain for the group was $196,000,000 for the quarter compared to an underwriting gain of $108,000,000 in the same period last year.
In the first quarter of twenty nineteen, Everest saw $25,000,000 of catastrophe losses related to flooding in Australia compared to $100,000,000 of catastrophe losses reported during the first quarter of twenty eighteen. Overall, our prior year catastrophe loss estimates continue to hold. We revised the ultimate loss estimates by event and by segment with no change in the overall loss estimates. Estimated net favorable prior year catastrophe development was offset by $24,000,000 of adverse catastrophe development on the third quarter twenty eighteen Japan loss events. No other events breached our $10,000,000 catastrophe threshold in the first quarter of twenty nineteen.
Therefore, any losses arising from these events were covered in our attritional loss estimates, which include a load for estimates less than $10,000,000 The overall current year attritional combined ratio was 87.4%, up slightly from 87.1 in the first quarter of twenty eighteen. The attritional loss ratio remained relatively flat at 59.2%, in line with Dom's earlier comments, while the commission ratio of 22.5% was up slightly compared to the same period last year, primarily due to changes in business mix and contingent commission adjustments in the reinsurance segment. The group expense ratio remains low at 5.7% and was lower than prior year due to the increase in earned premium. Our reported combined ratio of 88.7% was lower than first quarter last year, primarily due to the lower reported catastrophe losses in 2019. For investments, pretax investment income was $141,000,000 for the quarter.
This was based on our $19,000,000,000 investment portfolio, a new record for Everest. Investment income was 2% above the first quarter of last year. This result was primarily driven by the increase from the investment grade fixed income portfolio, which had a higher asset base this year. This was partially offset by lower limited partnership income. Since some partnerships report income on a quarter lag, this quarter's results reflected the poor equity market performance of the twenty eighteen fourth quarter.
We would expect there to be improvement in the limited partnership income going forward if the public equity market trading conditions continue to improve in 2019. The pretax yield on the overall portfolio was 3%, flat compared to one year ago. However, both investment grade and alternative fixed income yields were up year over year. On income taxes, the 12.5% effective tax rate on operating income was close to the 13% tax rate we expect for the full year. Positive cash flow continues with operating cash flows of $460,000,000 for the first quarter of twenty nineteen compared to $196,000,000 in 2018.
The increase reflects a lower level of paid catastrophe losses in 2019 compared to 2018. Shareholders' equity for the group was $8,400,000,000 at the end of the first quarter, up $523,000,000 or 7% compared to year end 2018. The increase in shareholders' equity since year end 2018 is primarily attributable to March of net income and the sharp recovery in the fair value of the investment portfolio, partially offset by capital return through $57,000,000 of dividends paid and $16,000,000 of share buybacks in the first quarter of twenty nineteen. Additionally, we've re repurchased another $9,000,000 of shares after the close of the quarter for a total of $25,000,000 year to date. Everest continues to maintain a very strong capital position with low debt leverage and high liquidity in our investment portfolio in addition to our robust cash flow.
As Don mentioned, the strength of our balance sheet is critical to the success of our business. An attestation to this is the affirmation of our A. M. Best A plus superior rating announced last week. Thank you.
And now John Doucette will provide a review of the reinsurance operations.
Thank you, Craig. Good morning. We are pleased to report a robust underwriting profit and solid premium growth for the Everest Reinsurance division during the first quarter of twenty nineteen. Our business remains well positioned for the current market and for what we see as the evolving trends over the near term. While the improving market that is emerging today is not an across the board rate lift as we may have seen in years gone by, it nevertheless has the potential to be meaningful and sustainable.
And this environment favors companies such as Everest, who have the breadth, depth, flexibility, size, and innovation to capture evolving opportunities across all classes of business and territories. Everest's success in the current market is based on these fundamental strengths, A global brand and platform, long standing broad relationships with clients and brokers built up over the last four decades by deeply experienced underwriting teams around the world, meaningful capacity, diversified capital sources, and a strong balance sheet. This quarter, we continue to see the value of partnership with clients where the reinsurance relationship is strategic for all involved. As our clients have seen pockets of capacity in certain areas reduced, they increasingly turn to Everest to solve their risk and capital needs. Our ability to withstand market stress and continue to provide meaningful, stable capacity over forty five years is of great value to our customers and their intermediaries.
Reflecting on the latest two major renewals, January 1 and April 1, we are encouraged with the rate change trend in the market. While not a hard market by historical standards, increasing evidence of stabilization on both underlying business and reinsurance business continues. The market has been reconsidering rates on some peak perils and is now painfully aware of the risk embedded in historically less conspicuous perils such as wildfire. The result is a market requiring rate increases and improved terms and conditions on loss affected business while maintaining generally stable to increasing prices in non loss affected programs. Overall reinsurance market capacity remains tight as both traditional and alternative capital are recalibrating their assumptions on loss costs, exposures, risk assessments, and various risk perils, particularly given the amount of catastrophe losses over the last two years.
And they are becoming more selective as to whom they will back and the terms and conditions with which they deploy capacity, which is a positive step in the evolution of the overall reinsurance market. The knock on effect to non CAT lines is also noteworthy. The market's broad recognition that CAT exposed profits can no longer subsidize underperforming treaties in other lines of business is resulting in actions on terms, conditions, and underlying rates if they have been inadequate on a stand alone basis. At the same time, there is increased demand as our customers re underwrite their primary books, apply rate increases, and seek to manage their net exposure. Outside of traditional P and C classes, we also find the outlook on our mortgage business robust and continue to see a long runway in the mortgage space for us to deploy capacity profitably in the current forms as well as in new products, structures, and distribution sources.
Now for a review of our quarterly results. For the reinsurance division overall, we wrote 1,500,000,000 in gross premium and reported an 86.5% combined ratio. Premiums were up 9% on a constant dollar basis year on year with casualty a strong contributor to the growth. Original casualty rates have seen pockets of improvement with reinsurance terms and pricing stable and in some cases increasing. Lower catastrophe losses helped drive an improved reinsurance division underwriting profit of $177,000,000 and our overall attritional loss ratio was about flat at 84.7% despite a larger percentage of the earned premium coming from pro rata business, which typically runs to a higher attritional loss ratio.
Growth was strongest in our U. S. Operations, up 19%, largely due to proportional casualty treaties predominantly written in 2018. The overall combined ratio was stable with our attritional loss ratio down slightly and the attritional combined ratio up three points mainly due to commissions increasing from the greater mix of pro rata business. The international operations also exhibited strong growth with premiums up 13% on a constant dollar basis.
Increased demand for facultative reinsurance was a large contributor to the quarter's growth and dislocation of capacity in London and other markets improved the opportunities for Everest in many international territories. Results in the international reinsurance segment were impacted by $25,000,000 of loss from the Townsville monsoon and flooding in Australia, as well as from increased loss estimates related to the third quarter twenty eighteen Japanese loss events. However, our attritional loss ratio was flat at 53% and our attritional combined ratio was down one point to 78.6%. The Bermuda operations had a decrease in gross premium, dropping 9% on a constant dollar basis. However, the year over year comparison was affected by premium recognition timing as the first quarter twenty eighteen premiums were bolstered by the timing of premium reported on certain large accounts.
Our London and Dublin operations included in this segment showed growth, benefiting from the dislocation in their markets. Profitability metrics are skewed due to some large shifts in prior period cap reserves to other reinsurance segments. Our attritional loss ratio of 61.6% was up 2.5 points due to an increase in casualty and specialty writings. However, our attritional combined ratio of 87.4 improved slightly. In summary, the first quarter was a solid start to the year for our reinsurance operations.
And we remain well positioned to capture rate improvements due to recent loss activity and overall favorable underlying market trends. Thank you. And now I will turn it over to John Zaffino to review our insurance operations.
Thanks, John, and good morning. Our insurance operations are likewise pleased to report a strong start of the year. Our first quarter performance was excellent as measured across several metrics, most importantly, the significant increase in underwriting profitability. This solid first quarter profit continued the trend we have demonstrated over the past two years, notably by delivering an underwriting profit in eight of the last nine quarters. Underlying growth was excellent in the quarter as some of the heavier impacts of nonrenewal activity lessened, although have not completely diminished.
The Everest Global Insurance operations produced gross written premium of $595,000,000 for the quarter, an 18% increase over the first quarter of twenty eighteen and a 37% increase over the same period in 2017. As we have over the past four years, we continue to pursue thoughtful and disciplined growth within our chosen product segments across the entirety of our global operations. This is the strongest first quarter production we have experienced in our history, and it marks the seventeenth consecutive quarter of top line growth across a diversified pallet of high value product areas. Most importantly in the quarter, the solid growth combined with outstanding execution resulted in underwriting profit of 19,000,000 a 50% increase over the $13,000,000 of underwriting profit from the first quarter of twenty eighteen and a nearly fourfold increase over the first quarter of twenty seventeen. Further, our attritional loss and LAE ratio improved 1.1 points to 65%, reflecting the continued migration toward the higher value and diversified specialty books of business and the earned premium impact of these businesses into our results.
The evidence shows that our confidence in pursuing the organic build of a world class specialty diversified insurance organization has been justified. As we have reported on prior calls, our leadership and underwriting teams across the globe continue to execute well on their individual and collective mandates, particularly during times such as these where we are experiencing transitioning markets. Our teams remain focused on our opportunity set measured by our robust submission flows across lines of business continues to grow, something I'll touch on later. We look forward to build on this momentum throughout the year. Turning to the financial highlights, the Global Insurance operations produced $595,000,000 in gross written premium in the first quarter, an increase of $90,000,000 or 18% over first quarter twenty eighteen, again evidence of our growing relevance in the specialty insurance market.
As in prior quarters, contributions remain quite balanced across the diverse group of property and casualty and asset and health underwriting divisions within our global insurance operations. In fact, aside from our program operation, Everest Underwriting Partners, where we've taken underwriting actions in pursuit of improved profitability, every other major business segment in the Everest Insurance portfolio delivered growth above 15% over first quarter of twenty eighteen. Turning to net premiums. For the first quarter of twenty nineteen, net premiums written also grew by 18% to $457,000,000 while net earned premium grew by $32,000,000 or 8% to $425,000,000 Our reported GAAP combined ratio for the quarter was 95.6%, a solid improvement of 1.2 points over first quarter twenty eighteen and nearly three points improved over first quarter twenty seventeen. The attritional combined ratio was also 95.6% in the quarter, a 2.4 improvement over the first quarter twenty eighteen attritional combined of 98% and a 90 basis point improvement over the full year 2018 attritional combined of 96.5%.
The overall GAAP loss ratio for the first quarter of twenty nineteen was 65%, effectively flat as compared to last year's 64.9%. The first quarter twenty nineteen attritional loss ratio ex cat improved further by 1.1 points over the first quarter of twenty eighteen and a further 3.2 improvement over first quarter twenty seventeen results. As anticipated and discussed on prior calls, the downward drift in the attritional loss ratio continues. This is a result of an improved mix of business, the growing benefit from the many new businesses launched, the improving underlying rate dynamics and the strategic underwriting actions of the past four years. Our expense ratio for the quarter was 30.6%, an improvement of 1.3 points over the prior year period.
This is in line with our full year 2018 expense ratio of 30.3%. The first quarter twenty nineteen expense ratio remains very competitive in the specialty insurance market and reflects stabilization around the 30% mark regardless of continued significant investment in talent, new products, new geographies and new technologies. We continue to recruit and retain the best talent in the industry and have invested in modern office locations to assist our colleagues in serving our customers in their local geographies. To support our talented employees and to enhance our client value proposition, we have committed to a robust program of IT investment in both traditional infrastructure and a variety of cutting edge and innovative technologies.
It is through
the hard work of our colleagues and their tireless commitment to execution that we have been able to pair this investment in growth with an industry leading expense ratio. I'll turn now to the market conditions, which are clearly painting a picture of an evolving market. One of the barometers used to draw this conclusion is our submission flows in the quarter, which amounted to our third highest on record. This was particularly acute in our various wholesale dedicated businesses where submission activity is significantly increasing month to month. As for underlying rates, we largely experienced an improving Property and Casualty and Accident and Health pricing picture across the organization, a trend that has continued from last year.
The exception has been workers' compensation where rates remain under pressure. However, our view of profitability within the line remains positive. Excluding workers' compensation, overall property and casualty renewal premium change, which includes exposure change, was 6.9 percent in the quarter. Pure rate change on the same basis increased by 5.5% in the quarter. Virtually all lines showed quarterly improvement led by commercial auto, property and umbrella excess.
Encouragingly, financial lines globally also showed strengthening, building on a trend that began in the last two quarters of twenty eighteen. This is the highest aggregate rate change we have seen in roughly five years. Finally, and this is something that we pay close attention to, terms and conditions also point to improvement, particularly in the property and excess casualty markets. The bottom line for us is that we are focused on achieving adequate technical pricing across our portfolio and are working diligently toward that objective every day. In conclusion, the first quarter twenty nineteen showed continued progress on our journey along with solid results.
Our vision of building a leading specialty diversified insurance company has become a reality. We have demonstrated that our strategy is sound and more importantly that we can execute on that strategy as evidenced by our consistent underwriting profitability across eight of the last nine quarters. More importantly, we believe we are positioned with the right capabilities, products and of course talent to service our customers in this evolving market. We look forward to continuing our positive momentum and reporting back to you next quarter. With that, I'll turn the call back to Jonathan for Q and A.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will open up the floor for questions. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press 1 to ask a question.
We'll pause for just a moment to allow everyone an opportunity to signal for questions. We'll take our first question from Amit Kumar with the Buckingham Research Group.
Thanks and good morning. Just maybe a few questions. The first question is probably for Dom. In the opening remarks, talked about how the 59.2 was, you know, obviously does not reflect some of the things you talked about. I was curious, and maybe this ties to ties into insurance and reinsurance.
How should we think about what would be sort of a normalized fully adjusted number if all the pluses and minuses were to have flown through the numbers?
Amit, we don't forecast earnings or try to give you any specific guidance on the numbers. In large part, that's the job of you and many others. I think what we're trying to suggest is that our first quarter numbers, not surprisingly, would be consistent with our 2018 loss picks on an attritional basis. And I think what we're also trying to suggest is that we've got ahead of us rate increases that were already, some of which came through in '18. We've got rate increases coming from our January 1 and April renewals, and then of course highly anticipated June account.
So I think what we're trying to suggest is that there should be improvement in that number. And that's somewhat, of course, dependent upon what the level of rate increases are, which we don't try to publicly prognosticate on the specific level of rate increase. So You're on your own.
That that that's a fair point. I was probably trying to come come up with the q four comments and, you know, back into maybe two or three points of improvement. The other question I had was the discussion on reinsurance pricing and the upcoming six one renewal. The six one reinsurance premiums have obviously grown substantially if you look Q2 twenty eighteen versus Q2 twenty seventeen. I was curious, based on how you're thinking about capital deployment, it going to be more about risk selection at six at the upcoming renewal and net net your size of the book remains mostly unchanged?
Or how should we think about that?
Well, that of course, Amit, is somewhat dependent upon what's presented to us at six point one. As we've said, we certainly would anticipate some meaningful rate activity and terms and conditions which are improving, which essentially is rate. But naturally that will vary by client. So in some cases, the level of rate activity will vary by client, I guess, is where I would like to leave that. Our activity at one one reflected some reduction in our exposure, as you can see from our PML's disclosures.
And that was of course due to the fact that we did not achieve the level of rate increase that we thought was necessary. And on a risk adjusted basis, some of the accounts were non renewed. Whether or not that presents itself in the same way at 6.1, not very likely. We certainly would anticipate 6.1 would be much stronger than what we saw at 1.1. And what we saw at 4.1, by the way, were meaningful rate increases.
And in fact, Japan was an area, for example, where we had pulled back in more recent times due to risk adjusted pricing going down. But we actually increased slightly our participation in Japan at 4.1. So it's a mixed bag. It'll be dependent upon what the market opportunities present to us. But I don't know that you'll necessarily see us meaningfully increase our exposure.
That's a fair point. The final question might be for Craig or John. The 37,000,000 positive movement in the catastrophes in The US reinsurance, where is that from?
Amit, we go through a comprehensive approach, this is Craig, to review our cat reserves on a current year basis, but also prior years as well. And we go through and we look at each event. However, we reserve on a group level basis, not a segment level basis. These events do not always fit neatly into a segment because the exposure can be written from multiple segments. We tend to react quickly to any adverse development, as you saw from the Japan loss events from 2018 that we took a charge for, but we take our time to react to any favorable development until that position becomes more mature.
So you may see movements between segments, but it's really done at an overall level.
Okay. So that 37,000,000 is from several pluses and minuses, I think is what you're saying, versus one single event?
Correct.
Got it. Okay. I will stop here. Thanks for the answers and good luck for the future.
Thank you, Amit.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from with Wells Fargo.
Hi, good morning. My first question I was hoping to spend a little bit more time on the forward pricing environment. I recognize we're still in discussions for the midyear renewals. But given what we've seen in the industry with Irma and the development with Irma, I mean, you give us a sense what kind of price increases would you need to see for this to be a successful renewal versus if prices if we get closer to 6.1% and prices fall short of expectations, is there a certain bar where Everest, you know, is going to walk away after not able to recoup price increases after two successive years of losses?
So Elyse, I'm going to ask John to comment, John to set the comment well. But let me just say that consistent with what I've said before is that we try not to prognosticate where the rate increases will be going, and frankly where they even need to be. It varies by client, as I mentioned a few minutes ago, depending upon client experience, other relationships, risk adjusted returns, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. And frankly, it doesn't really do us any service to be, trying to put a specific number or bar on it. I think it probably telegraphs an inconsistent message or an incorrect message to the street.
And frankly, depending on the client relationship, it could be the inappropriate target for a specific client. So it doesn't really serve our purpose to be putting a putting a benchmark or drawing a line in the sand, so to speak, as you described it. But, John, do you have any further Yep.
Thanks, Don. Good morning, Elise, and thanks for the question. First, I do wanna highlight that there's actually been three years of of hurricanes hitting Florida, not two, with Matthew, Irma, and Michael. And and I I think there's been a lot of movement there, and I think there's been, you know, as Dom said, you know, as we look at this, we we need to achieve the rates that we we expect that. And that will vary by client, that will vary by product, that will vary by attachment.
But we fully intend to differentiate the clients in terms of how they've performed with their losses, with their LAE, with AOB, with their loss creep, etcetera. So that'll all factor in. We clearly see capacity tight as we head into the market, both as I touched on in my earlier comments, both on the traditional and in the alternative space for a variety of reasons due to some of the aforementioned reasons, but also just the the reload, the alternative capital, and the lack of the reload. So a couple of other points, you know, that we we continue to look to where we wanna allocate capacity, and that's not just property. That's not just by client in Florida.
And we are, you know, allocating more capacity to global clients. Obviously as John Caffino articulated, deploying more capital and capacity on the insurance space. We're seeing increasing opportunities on the casualty reinsurance space and as I said on the mortgage space. So all that factors into a higher required return threshold for where we are headed into our Florida business. We don't predict rates, but ultimately we think it'll be profitable for us.
The only thing I'll add to that again, Elise, is that while it's not maybe precisely on point to your question, hopefully this helps. I did describe earlier that we've increased our participation in the Japan market, and there we were seeing rate increases of 20 to 30%. So maybe that gives you some notion of our appetite and maybe perhaps what's needed generally.
Okay, that's very helpful. And then in terms of your Jebi development in the quarter, so if we look at where your initial loss sat and we've seen a lot of development across the industry. And so the development that we've seen from you guys, smaller percentage of your initial loss, is there a difference in how you attach on treaties there or maybe the level of insured losses you use when you set up the reserve for the losses in the third quarter of last year? Just any guidance there that we should think about in terms of the development on Jebi?
So we believe that last year when we established that reserve we were at the high above, frankly we were way above where the industry estimates were at the time. So that obviously kept us in good stead, as well as the fact that we've essentially, when you look at the losses in Asia, we're looking at them as a group of losses with respect to that marketplace. So I think all of those factors combined enabled us to have that managed appropriately.
Okay, that's helpful. My last
Just give me one second. I think maybe John just
Yeah, I just wanna give a little bit of a frame, you know, of our market share in Japan. So if you think back since over many years, we had post the HUCO substantial rate increases, and we significantly increased our book of business then. And then over the last several years, there had been a downward pressure on the rates, and we accordingly kind of trimmed our books each year a little bit for the worst performing accounts. And we also were moving up capacity, which I think is reflective of where we find ourselves for the Japanese book overall.
Okay. That's helpful. And then my last question was on the expense ratio. It was up a little bit year over year. And then if I look within The U.
S. Reinsurance segment, you saw an uptick a decent amount uptick in the commission and brokerage ratio from where you've been trending. Is there something, you know, going on there that we should think about in terms of modeling going forward?
So Elyse, this is Craig. Expenses year over year, one of the things that you saw at year end was variable pay expenses were taken down at the end of last year, predominantly due to the profitability of the book. Those are back in normal accrual ranges for this year overall. But what you're seeing is just a slight uptick in expense dollars. But overall, the expense ratio is staying at
a at a low level of 5.7% overall.
Yeah. And, Elise, this is John. I just wanna add a little more color on the mix change. So we also have been talking about increasing our casualty book of business overall, increasing our pro rata business. And at one one, we took action based on rates tied to our property retro and aggregate retro portfolio, and that decreased.
It's a combination of those, all those, do have or did have an impact on the attritional combined ratio.
And the expense ratio, of course, is down here, down here. But the commission ratio had a I think you referenced The US reinsurance. That had a contingent commission adjustment in the first quarter, a true up, if you will, due to the mortgage book.
And how much was that true up?
Overall, it relates to a
bunch of things. It relates to contingent commission and the mortgage true up, but it also relates to the business mix that we have with more pro rata business coming on the books that John just mentioned.
And different classes of business that specifically have contingent commissions in them.
So we don't have one specific number for the mortgage adjustment.
Okay, that's helpful. Thank you for all the color.
Thank you, Louise. Thank you.
We'll take our next question from with Goldman Sachs.
Thank you. Good morning, everybody. I guess this question is a multi part question. So first, just looking at the total reinsurance underlying attritional combined ratio of 84.7, It just seems a little bit lower than the roughly 87 number that I think we had run rated last quarter. So other than maybe contingent commissions or a couple of other minor offices, are there any major drivers there that would have resulted in this significant improvement quarter to quarter?
So I mean, we continue to deploy more capacity into the mortgage space, which we think has a robust risk reward characteristics. And as you may recall, the mortgage book are basically multiyear deals. They're they're over several years. So deals from three years ago were still getting earned premium. Two years ago, etcetera, one year ago, as well as writing new premium.
That that certainly has the directional impact of improving the the attritional combined ratio given the potential profitability in the mortgage book.
Okay. That's helpful. And then, Dom, from your earlier comments, it sounds like between the underwriting actions that you've taken and have been implemented starting in January and the rate increases that you've been seeing, you are expecting an overall improvement. Basically you are expecting that rates will be in excess of loss trends. Is that broadly true?
Are there lines of business or geographies where you actually don't see that to be the case?
Not in any meaningful way. I think generally, and that's primarily because in any particular class of business, in a particular geography, and of course this can get pretty minute. But if that were the case, then you'd be seeing us take capacity moving away from that sector. So I'm not sure that I could really highlight anything that's moving in the wrong direction.
Okay. And then I guess one last quick one. I think the increase in loss estimates from Japan is for all three industry events, so Jebi Trami and then the flood losses. Would you be able to break that out?
We do not break that out.
Okay. But if I take the three industry events together, it would seem like you're in the 80 to 90 basis point market share of those three losses based on current estimates. That roughly how you're seeing it?
Roughly 1%.
Roughly 1%. Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Thank you.
We'll take our next question from Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research.
Hey, thanks. Just looking for a little bit more color on the texture behind the Japan book now at renewals, maybe in terms of premium size? How much of that is quota share? What's the weighting between the wind and the quake? And how much of that, if it's excess of loss, is aggregate or occurrence?
Good morning, Ryan. This is John. So our Japan book's about $50,000,000 60 million dollars up slightly this year over prior years. The mix should be I don't have that in front of us. The mix should be mostly excess of loss business, and that's mostly property.
There's some other there's some surety, fidelity, and some other smaller programs that we write for a lot of the major clients.
Thank you. And then a follow-up for Dom, going back to the prepared remarks about thinking about these two businesses from a sum of the parts context. I'm just curious, like what is your ROE outlook on where the primary insurance business is today and where the reinsurance business is?
Well, first of all, we would certainly target an ROE in the double digits. Clearly we would expect a higher ROE out of our reinsurance business and the insurance business given the volatility there. Couple hundred basis point difference, but that's about as specific as I think I'd wanna get without giving you a specific number, which would then, of course, translate into an earnings projection.
Fair enough, thanks.
Thank you.
We'll take our next question from Joshua Shanker with Deutsche Bank.
I wanted to talk a little bit about pricing. You guys see both sides of the market. First of all, in terms of the rate increases on the primary side, and it's not just for you but others, to what extent are broadly discussed industry price increases going to get mitigated by higher hours reinsurance costs, which you guys will benefit from? And two, in absence of property pricing being up, I'm sure you in your non property lines, all seeing price increases. But would it be business as usual?
Or is there really something palpable going on outside of the property driven pricing markets?
Morning, Josh. This is John. Let me take that from the primary side. First and foremost, I don't see this as a reinsurance driven pricing change. I think some of the underlying fundamentals and dynamics are such that there are a number of areas that just simply needed corrective rate action.
So we're seeing that across several lines, some of which I mentioned in my script. We're actually seeing some of the momentum actually built, which fundamentally I think is creating a pretty interesting dynamic and outlook. So, we anticipate that to continue as as the year moves on. We're seeing it outside of proper. We mentioned the commercial auto, not not a new story, obviously.
But as I mentioned earlier, in the financial lines, you're starting to see, particularly in some of the management liability areas, public company D and O, certainly primary layers, you're starting to see increased rate of change happening there in terms of rate action. So we just see it sort of a broad based move, but a lot of it being driven by underlying fundamentals versus kind of a top down view.
And even though it's not being driven by the reinsurance side, are your clients going to see some of their rate driven margin expansion curtailed by higher outwards reinsurance costs?
Well, there would be we would expect the industry, the primary industry, obviously realize some of the reinsurance rate increases. I'm not so sure that that would translate into margin compression on their end. I think their rate levels, clearly the reinsurance spend is only a portion of their gross written premium. But I think the economics are such that I wouldn't necessarily expect any compression to their margins because of increased reinsurance pricing.
And I think, John, I could speak more to this, but everyone buys differently. I think it's a very difficult translation one to one. Don't know John is going to comment on the demand side.
Yes. We're clearly seeing a lot of our reinsurance clients looking to buy more, frankly, their reinsurance treaties. And some of them are property driven for volatility. Interestingly, we're still seeing a lot of demand on the casualty side of the of the house, and that is resulting in so to your you know, to the original question, we're still seeing nonproperty rate improvements with improved terms and conditions and lower ceding commissions on on the casualty, the broader casualty part. And then we're also seeing some pickup in some of the specialty reinsurance areas, aviation, marine, etcetera.
We're seeing some lift. Some of that's really loss driven. So we're seeing some opportunities there that we wouldn't have found attractive in prior years, but at better pricing, could put more capacity to work there.
The one area, Josh, where you may see, some of which you're you're suggesting, could be in Florida with some of the smaller companies, where they may feel a little bit of pressure from rising reinsurance costs. But that would be the only spot where I think that would potentially hold true.
All right. Well, thanks for the answers.
Thank you, Josh.
Thank you.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Meyer Shields with KBW.
Thanks. I was hoping you could give us your views on the sophistication of the Japanese catastrophe models compared to the ones we've got for the Southeastern United States?
So let's start with first, all models are wrong. And every time a loss happens, some of the weaknesses get demonstrated, and then there's kind of a look back and a retooling back to cover the losses that happened. And I think that's one of the reasons why we take a pretty holistic view on across the whole board and really try to think about it on a first principles basis and not just be model driven. So our you know, I think the data is getting better over time overall, but it's still not nearly as good in a lot of international areas as it is in The U. S.
That would include Japan. But it has gotten a lot better over the last several years. The models, therefore, are also better.
No, great. Thank you. That's very helpful. Second question, I
think
it's my impression at least is that you tend to see reinsurance buyers or really all insurers get somewhat more optimistic in their loss picks during soft markets and then that reverses when rates rise. Can you talk about how you sort of manage against that in the reinsurance book?
Well, I mean, it's an interesting observation. And of course, selecting an ELR and knowing your true cost of business. Cost of goods sold in this business is something that you never really know for years into the future. So you never really know accurately your cost of goods sold. And it's always a challenge.
So the best way to deal with that is to use all the tools that are available to you, stay true to your process, be conservative, and disciplined around how establish loss reserves and just collect all the data you can. And I think what we've shown or demonstrated is that in our attritional book, we have a fairly good track record over the last half a dozen years or so of reasonably reserving through various market cycles. But look, it's never an exact science, and it's all about being presenting a fair financial picture, which we think which we think we've done.
And just to add a little more color, you know, you know, we also benefit. And this this is where I think data and experience with clients, with lines of business in different territories. I mean, we write business for over forty five years. We write in basically all PNC lines in all territories and have traded with, you know, 70% of our clients for, you know, decades now. And that's incredibly helpful because we can pull up prior year submissions.
We can pull up similar clients, and we can look and build. So I think being having a global footprint for a long period of time gives us a a a very strong insight into what we think the market really is, the loss pick really is, and the rating environment really is, which I think has helped us time and time again being in that favorable position to be able to execute on that and not just rely specifically on what a specific client's information tells us, but to be able to pull in across kind of our institutional knowledge on actuarial pricing and trends, loss trends, things like that.
And to be specific about our process, and I know we've mentioned this from time to time, what we do in our process is that after the last reserve study, and this is what was applied to every class of business, we then apply to that last reserve study selection, we apply what's happening with rates. So if there are rate decreases going on in the marketplace, we will take the last reserve study pick and adjust it downward or upward, I'm sorry, any rate decreases and the opposite if there are rate increases going on. So that's how we deal with it specific to our company.
Okay, that was very thorough and helpful. Thank you.
Thank you.
We'll take our next question from Brian Meredith with UBS.
Yes, thanks. Most of my questions have
been asked, but just one quick question here. John, what do you think the impact of the AOB legislation in Florida is going to have on just the pricing environment, maybe kind of lost costs and stuff going forward?
Yes, it's a great question. Again, try to absorb all the information out there. We don't really try to make specific predictions on what this is going to do X or that's going to do Y. I'll go back to three years of hurricanes hitting Florida, a lot of capacity, the loss creep that we did see. I think capacity is tight, as Dom alluded to.
A lot the reinsurance clients there, their reinsurance programs are capital to them, and I think they need to be reflective of the not so great experience over the last couple of years. We certainly hope, and we think it's a positive move, that the Florida legislature is addressing this issue. So hopefully that'll make an overall better, healthier market in the long term.
I guess more specifically, do the quota shares actually down in Florida? Do you think it will have any impact on pricing then? Or are you going to kind of just wait and see what happens, call it, a year from now?
I there could be think there I didn't know if your question was insurance pricing, the original pricing or reinsurance pricing. I think it's gonna be there's gonna be directional movements up and down on all that stuff. But, I think the capacity is is tighter at this renewal.
Great. Thank you. Thank
you. At this time, there are no further questions in the queue.
Good. Well, I'll just sum up here. Thank you for joining this morning and for your questions and discussion. Certainly we're off to a good start for the year, but, more important is, what is likely to unfold as the year progresses. And I think as you heard from us and other market participants, the rate outlook is quite positive.
This along with our many business initiatives and expansion opportunities causes us to be very optimistic about our future. So I look forward to interacting with many of you in weeks ahead, and have a good day. Thanks again.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's teleconference. You may now disconnect.