All right. We're still on schedule, 3:40 P.M. This never happens, so great conversation ahead. Daan Struyven, myself, we're thrilled to have a conversation with Ann Janssen, EVP and CFO of EOG. We've got so much to talk about: macro operations, capital returns, exploration, which we can't talk about with many companies, but we can talk about with you. But we wanted to give you an opportunity to set the table for investors. What are you focused on into 2025? What are your most important strategic priorities in the year ahead? And then we'll jump in.
Okay, great. Great place to start. We're exiting 2024 with a lot of momentum, so we're excited as we move into 2025 to execute on the EOG value proposition. So, it's been a constant way of looking at the business. I've been with the EOG for over 29 years, so that value proposition's been in place for a long time. It's had a couple modifications, but overall it stayed pretty much the same. And it's based on four pillars. The first pillar is capital discipline. Everything we do, we look at from a rate of return investment, rate of return on our investment. That in turn, we want it to yield a ROCE in the lower double digits. And all of that comes together to the way we're looking at our business. We wanna have continuous improvement in all of our investments.
We wanna set our balance sheet up to be in a pristine position so that it's we can use that to run our business. And then we wanna be able to return value back to the shareholders. So that capital discipline is extremely important, and it's we look at it with everything we do. The second pillar that we look at is operational excellence. And what we mean by that is really looking at operational efficiencies and how can we make our business better. So that's based on our in-house technical expertise, you know, us setting up our own proprietary information technology products, as well as self-sourcing of our materials when we have the opportunity to do so. And you know, when we look at cost improvements, cost efficiencies, we want them to exist over the life cycle of an asset. We want to have them be continuous improvement.
As an organic exploration company, it's very important that we're continually looking for opportunities to improve our cost structure. That's an extremely important pillar for us. We spend a lot of time focused on that. It's been a low-cost provider has been a mantra of the company for my entire tenure there. The third pillar we look at is sustainability. Sustainability is really approaching it as being a prudent operator in all the areas we work. Sustainability is about safe operations, both having safe operations and keeping our employees safe. It has to do with having leading environmental performance. Then finally, it's about being a good steward in the communities we work in, being engaging in the communities, being involved, giving back to the communities where we work. So sustainability's also been there long-term, and then finally, culture.
I think culture's the most interesting one to talk about, but it's also the hardest one to explain for EOG. Culture is very unique at EOG. The way we look at it is we're very decentralized. We're definitely non-bureaucratic. We want to put the power of driving value down at the asset level out in the field. And it's really kind of revolutionized how we conduct our business because culture's been there my whole tenure. You try to explain it, you know. I interview people and they say, "Explain the culture to me." And I try really hard to put it in words, but till you experience it, you just don't realize how much power we're giving to our employees to bring ideas to the table, to really look at different ways to approach our business and having them have a seat at the table.
And that in turn empowers them because they know they're important to the organization and they're shareholders, so they wanna drive higher value for the organization. So we put all those four pillars together, and that's how we can execute on the value proposition. So as we move into 2025, you know, our activity levels for 2024, we think we're at a good level. We're expecting to kind of have consistency of activity levels as we move into 2025. You'll see some shifts in activity across some of the basins, but overall it'll be the same corporate level of activity. You know, a couple shifts. We spent about $400 million in strategic infrastructure projects in 2024, and that was to bring our Verde Pipeline on, which was put into operation during 2024. And then also we're working on the Janus Gas Operating Plant.
That'll be completed in the first half of 2025. So we've got about another $100 million of CapEx related to that strategic infrastructure. But that was another kind of mover for us in 2024 and as we moved into 2025. But we feel we're in a really good place. We feel that we've laid the business out. We always look at that value proposition, improving the business across the cycle. We wanna look at our portfolio overall and make sure that each portion of our portfolio is adding value and creating value so that we can return value back to the shareholders.
Thanks, Ann. I'm gonna turn it over to Daan on the macro.
Thanks, Ann. So let's start with the commodity price outlook. Crude oil prices have rebounded from the lower end of their 2024 range. How are you thinking about the supply and demand fundamentals, and how would you frame the outlook for our markets, both this year and next?
Great. So oil's obviously very dynamic. We're all, you know, debating what's gonna happen with oil. And I think, as we kind of wind it down, you know, there's a lot of headwinds. There's a lot of tailwinds. You know, some of our tailwinds is that obviously the inventory levels are low. In the U.S., you're seeing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels, reaching lows. The IEA came out with global inventory levels, some of the lowest in, you know, five years. So we've got that tailwind behind us. But the headwinds, obviously, OPEC+ has made their announcement of delivering barrels back into the market over the course starting in April, about the next year and a half. And then you have all these other factors you can lump on top of it.
You've got, you know, how's it gonna be impacted by the China stimulus that's gone into place? How's that gonna impact demand and what demand's gonna come out of that? You also have the Trump coming online talking about the max, you know, pressure campaign and what's that gonna do to Iran barrels and the Iranian barrels and how are they gonna come on? How is that gonna be impacted by Trump's discussions? And then finally, a lot of it has to do with the tariffs. You hear about all the tariffs that are being put in place. And really we're looking at, you know, what is Trump gonna propose? Those, those have a broad range, far-reaching. So how that, how is that gonna impact the market?
All of those variables get lumped in to try to figure out what the, you know, the oil macro's gonna look like. And you know, we're cognizant of that as we're developing our plans. We have to be cognizant of what the oil macro is. And for us, as we kind of look at our plan, as we're laying out our plan for 2025 and beyond, we're approaching the oil markets or the oil demand, supply and demand that we could move to, say, those, the situation where we are entering an oversupply market and the prices decrease. We are looking at where we put ourselves in a position that we could go to more of a maintenance program, like $45 WTI.
Even at a maintenance program, we're able to, at that $45 WTI, we're still able to keep our production flat, and we're also able to return and pay out our regular dividends. So, it's all about looking at kind of our portfolio across the board and looking at how that oil macro could possibly impact us. But we take it into consideration that base plan is not, or that $45 WTI is not our base plan. We think it's gonna be much higher. But certainly, as we're looking at our metrics, we're taking into consideration we're still well-positioned with how we laid out our portfolio.
And let's turn to natural gas. And Daan, I don't know if you wanted to ask about that as well.
Yeah. What's your outlook for Henry Hub, you know, this year? Is there anything that surprised you in 2024? And do you have a sense of how to quantify the contribution from data centers and AI to gas demand?
Right. AI's a hot topic at this conference. You know, for gas, it's kind of looking at the opposite side of the same kind of coin because we're worried about low inventories for oil and potentially an oversupply in the market for oil. On the gas side, we have inventory levels that are, you know, reaching, you know, five-year highs, and then you have the projected increase in demand as we move into the outer years, and a lot of that's coming from the LNG and the feed gas and all those things coming online, but as we're looking at natural gas, obviously we have the Dorado. We spend a lot of time talking on our one-on-ones about Dorado, our great gas asset down there, world-class gas asset.
I think we're well-positioned to take advantage as we move into, you know, how's that gas demand gonna play out? How are we gonna be able to supply back into the market? So we think we're really well-positioned on the gas side to be able to deliver into that market. So what's that market gonna look like? What are the demand fundamentals gonna look like? And as we kind of, you know, sketch it out over the course of, say, the next five years, we're expecting about a 20 to 24 billion cubic feet a day increase in demand. That's how EOG's looking at it. And we kind of break it down into two buckets. About half of that amount, about 10 to 12 Bcf per day, we're expecting to come related to the LNG, to the feed gas, to the plants that are under construction.
And those are the ones that are under construction, that are already in place. They weren't subject to the delays in the permitting process Biden put in place. So we've, I think we've penciled in about 10 to 12 is coming from those supply chains. Then the other 10 to 12 we think is coming from a couple of different places, several different places. One is some increase in some industrial demand in the U.S. We see the exports to Mexico are gonna increase as we move into the next few years. And then, finally, you know, we're looking at AI. And I think AI's kind of a little bit tougher to quantify. I think, you know, just in our discussions, you know, over the course of the morning, there's a wide range of expectation of what that demand's gonna look like.
We've put in for the next five years that we think the AI demand's gonna wind up around three to four Bcf per day in demand. Again, we're watching it like everybody else. How will renewables impact that? How will batteries impact that? What's the geographic, you know, locations of these AI facilities gonna be? How do all the players get involved in it? We do think there is upside to it, but man, we're gonna wait like everybody else and see how that quantifies out. Again, we're well-positioned. We have, you know, great gas assets in place at EOG, and we think that we can be key players in those markets as that demand increases.
The other thing, we think we're well-positioned in takeaways, and we've set up several contracts that are tied not just to, you know, your basis, structures, your markets, but we also have some tied to JKM. We have some tied into Brent, which gives us a little bit of diversity in the pricing environment, then our takeaway, we're well set up. Our marketing team has done an outstanding job of getting ahead and setting up opportunities and pipelines to take gas not only out of Dorado, but other areas. You know, we took advantage of getting on the TLIP, Transco pipeline, so we have capabilities there, so we really believe that natural gas is well-lined out and that we're in a good position to be a key player in the gas market as we move forward, and again we'll just continue to watch how that market develops.
We wanna be very conscientious of delivering into the market at the right time in that market's life cycle, not just jumping on just 'cause there's a price shift, but more importantly, kind of looking at the evolution of it and making sure that we're strategically prepared to enter at the right time.
And you said that was over five years, 20 to 20?
We're kind of factoring that 25 to 2030. That's kind of our timeline of how we're.
4% CAGR, which is a little bit higher than I think where consensus is. So that's an interesting data point.
Yes.
which is interesting 'cause the three to four Bs is actually probably a little bit lower.
Yeah, it is probably a little bit lower.
So that residual base, you have a more bullish view. So let's talk about operations. To start off with Utica, you highlighted you expect to run two rigs in Utica by the end of 2025. What are the puts and takes for the Utica, and how much of the year do you think you can run that second rig?
Okay. Great question. Utica, we love talking about Utica. Utica's a great example of our organic exploration, how we lean into the organic exploration. Everything that we imagine would happen in Utica has happened there better. And so we have been running during 2024. We ran one rig and a part-time frac crew. And so, as you said, we do anticipate by exiting 2025 with two rigs in place as well as one full-time frac crew. So how does that happen? It really is about what I call the pace of play. It's how we're viewing that basin and how we're developing. We want to approach it to develop it at the right pace so that we are not moving too slow for a company our size. We wanna make sure that the economies of scale work.
Number two, we don't wanna be moving too fast to outrun our learnings. We don't wanna be in just a manufacturing mode. We want to be very thoughtful about how we approach Utica and how we lay out the development in Utica. When that second rig comes on, a lot will depend on how that development happens over the course of the next year. You know, by the end of next year, end of this year now, we'll be exiting with two rigs. We can't definitively tell you. It's really just where in the development of that play we put that second rig in place. The other thing with Utica, what's exciting about Utica is, there's still a lot of potential there.
There's still a lot of learnings that, you know, we need to take advantage of and really understand the play even more. You know, we've been spending a lot, majority of our time in the volatile oil window, and we have about 225,000 net acres there, and we've had a lot of learnings there. We're kind of continuing to fine-tune you know a lot of development there, and during 2025, we're gonna continue to fine-tune that well spacing, you know, for other shale plays. We've landed at about 600 feet to 1,000 feet of spacing, and so we're still kind of dialing that in, so we still view 2025 as a development year for Utica, but we're very excited about it. We think it has a lot of scalability. We are approaching it very thoughtfully.
You know, being an organic explorer, we don't wanna just jump in and start drilling. We want to be, again, thoughtful about it and make sure that we line it out the way we want it to be so that we can develop that basin, for continuous improvement and longevity.
Ann, is the right strategy in Utica to pursue the organic approach? There are privates in the area who have experience, but is it fair to say that your base case is to do this in an organic way?
Definitely. Again, we lean into organic because that's where our expertise lies, so we're always looking at the best way to return the value back, and you know, for us, we believe leaning into the organic exploration, you know, us doing the work makes the most sense, but we're always looking at options. We never wanna rule anything out.
Yeah. Makes sense. Can you maybe talk about your views on the maturity of shale in general for the industry and in particular for, you know, your assets, in the Delaware and the Eagle Ford? And how many years of core inventory, you know, do you have left in your portfolio?
Yeah. I'm always intrigued when people say, "Oh, we're at this late stage of shale, and it's reaching this maturity, and there's nothing new to do." And, you know, the way that we approach it, again, being organic explorer, we think we look at it completely different. We look at there's still a lot of potential there. We look at the rock and what we can still do with the rock, whether that's through drilling efficiencies, there's been a lot of, you know, there's push and pull. There's the reflex when you get into a basin to go drill your best economic wells and what's gonna deliver the most production quickly and do that fast. Again, it's really looking at technology and engineering and specifics and trying to determine the right pace to develop that in.
I think that shale, that, you know, we talked about Utica. That's kind of the same continuation of that. It's really looking at being thoughtful about approaching the basin and what can we do better in the basin so that we can extend the life of that basin and improve what we're able to get from the rock. And we're seeing continuous improvement, and we think there's still always gonna be that push and pull, but we still believe. I believe, I mean, I've been here, like I said, 29 years, and there's always technology improvements. Every time we think, "Oh, we've maxed out, there's nothing further we can do," there's some technology that gets developed or some efficiency that gets developed, and we can go back into areas and look at it a different way.
So we still think there's a lot of opportunity in the shale. We certainly think in our assets that we have, we're still in a good position, and we still have a lot of opportunity. We've gone back in and been able to really deliver some strong results, even areas we've been producing for long periods of time. You know, if you look at, you asked the question on how kind of we view where we stand, we have about 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent in, you know, opportunity. We, we view it as having plenty to go back in and look at, those resources, that 10+ billion of resources we think we have the ability to go in and spend more time on, go back in and look at.
We think that we can add value to things we already have in our portfolio that are part of our total portfolio, and then you have assets like Utica. We haven't even added that to the resource potential that I just mentioned, so there's still a lot of upside. We still think that there's still a lot of running room. We don't think it's mature in the sense that there's nothing else we can do further. We really believe it's about going in and being conscious of what we can do with the rock and, again, continue to drive value proposition out of it.
Return of capital. And, Ann, as CFO, you have an important role in sort of how you think about what the optimal capital structure is and what the optimal strategy is to return capital to shareholders. And what was really well received on the third quarter call was the view of not going to a significant net debt position, but at least getting to net debt zero. Talk about, and then using that excess headroom to return that cash in the form of a buyback. Had to come to that decision, you know, EOG, you modeled the heck out of it. So what, why was that the right conclusion?
Yeah. You know, starting with the capital structure, our announcement on the capital structure, really what we were aiming for is to make the balance sheet more efficient, for the size of our company, for the strength of our company, and you know, where we are in the cycle. It was a great opportunity to go in and look at how we wanted that to lay out, how we wanted it to look. You know, starting on the debt side, we chose to model, you know, target less than one time total debt to EBITDA at a $45 WTI. You know, you're right, we do a lot of modeling, and you know, as we lay that out, that lands on about a $5 to $6 billion debt level.
Another factor that came into play is we have some maturities coming up, for EOG. We have one coming up in the spring of this year and then one in 2020, early 2026. So it was another time for us to look at, you know, how do we wanna handle debt, what level of debt we wanna carry. And then, you know, leaning onto the cash side of the balance sheet, the way we looked at cash was, you know, what have we been running, what has been a good level for us to be using to run, kind of our normal operations. And, you know, we landed at about a $5 to $6 billion number, so that allows us to run those normal operations, but it also allows us to return value back to the shareholder, you know, in the form of our regular dividends.
And then also taking an opportunity, taking advantage of countercyclical opportunities. You know, if pipe becomes available at a good price for EOG, if some metrics out there that we can go do some bolt-on, you know, acreage acquisition, we would be nimble. I like the word nimble. We could be nimble and act on that. So really, what cash level do we need to feel comfortable that we can execute on that? And you put all this stuff together, and really now you're looking at a balance sheet that we really think benefits the shareholders because it's optimizing, you know, the balance sheet for the company, but it's allowing us to be put into position of having that pristine balance sheet.
We think that our balance sheet, even after adding additional debt, is still gonna be, you know, one of the best, if not the best in the peer group. So that's one of the things we look at. Then we turn around, and having that capital structure in place allows us to return, you know, more free cash flow to the shareholders. And we're able to return greater than 100% in the near term a free cash flow to our shareholders. And then finally, obviously with our regular dividend as well. And then on top of that, those countercyclical opportunities. So when they happen, we're nimble and we can jump on them and move on it. So we think we've really set up our balance sheet to be in the right position for the company at this stage of the evolution of the company.
And again, you know, it's an evolution of the balance sheet. It's just, you know, a change for us to get it better in line with where we are as a business, line us out better where we are as a business.
Yeah. On M&A, we talked a little bit about this yesterday when we caught up, but, EOG does have a different perspective than most other E&Ps, which is that you have, you wanna pursue much more of an organic exploration capability and to do it, do it yourself as opposed to buying other assets. What's the logic behind that and what's the risks with that strategy?
You know, we talk about all the time, we think there's where we have really set our mark, where we've been able to differentiate ourselves is being an organic exploration company. So in looking at that, when we're looking to M&A, I think there's this disconnect that we never go out and look at M&A. We absolutely look at M&A. When something comes to light or we're made aware of something, we're running our metrics, we're looking at it, trying to determine if it's good for EOG. But everything we do is based on that rate of return. So if when you look at an M&A, it has to immediately be able to come into the portfolio and compete against the other things that we have in our portfolio. And quite frankly, we haven't found that to be the right fit for EOG.
We think our expertise is in that organic exploration, taking the assets we have in place and really developing them, making them stronger. And again, just leaning into that because I think that's where we, we excel. So not all M&As are bad or all M&As are good. It's just really, I think for EOG, it's really about how we approach the business and the strategy and where we think we add the most value back. Now, you know, we look at bolt, bolt-on acreage, we look on those smaller acquisitions. EOG will still consider those, but again, we're leaning into where we have our expertise. You know, the downside you ask, where's the downside in not participating in those? We haven't really found those to shape up or come to fruition. You know, we get a lot of questions on, why aren't you more in the M&A market?
And it really is about them. The M&A transaction would have to immediately come into our portfolio, and we'd be willing to transfer capital from whatever we were doing into that M&A. And quite frankly, we just haven't come across one of those transactions yet. So the downside, we don't really think we're missing out on anything 'cause we think the quality of our assets are better than what we've seen and how we've modeled what an M&A transaction, you know.
Given your strength and DNA in exploration, let's end with that important topic. In 2025, you will have the option to drill the Beehive prospect in Australia, in shallow water. How are you thinking about the decision? How does the project fit into the broader diversified portfolio of EOG assets, and what are kind of the milestones that investors should be watching?
Okay. Great. Yeah, Beehive is Northwest Shelf of Australia, and we did announce in the third quarter we planned on drilling in 2025, and you know, we're looking right now at, again, the total portfolio. At any point in time, we're out there looking at what each of our plays brings to the value of the portfolio. So the good thing with Beehive is we do have the permit already in place, and we do have some flexibility when we drill that, the timing of it. Where does that fit in the timing with our other projects, and it's a little bit longer life cycle asset than some of the other EOG areas. So as a result, that allows us to kind of take our time with it.
You know, it's always about learning geology and understanding what's going on, but it's really about, again, how does Beehive fit in the overall EOG portfolio. The timing of drilling would definitely be incumbent on how it fits against all of the other assets in our portfolio for EOG.
Great. And, staying on exploration and early development, Dorado is an interesting asset. If you believe that we can meet 4% gas growth, demand growth to be met, there's definitely gonna be a role for South Texas in that equation. So how big can this, this asset be and what's the development plan?
You know, for Dorado, we've been running one rig in Dorado, and we expect to rig, to use one rig in 2025, so continue having just one rig running. And right now, the way we're approaching the asset is we're still trying to learn about it. You know, I talked about all that we wanna be efficient in our cost structures. We wanna be thoughtful in how we're approaching a basin. So we think we're well positioned with where we are. We think we're, you know, increasing our learnings about the basin. And we could, you know, you could easily ramp it up because those wells come on. They're so prolific that when they do come on, they bring a lot of production with them from day one. So you could see a ramp up in the Dorado.
But again, everything we do is based on value creation and where does it fit in the life cycle of the asset, and so just because we have a great gas asset down in Dorado doesn't mean we just automatically turn it on because it's a great asset. Rather, it's the returns we're gonna get from bringing that on, basing what the price structures are at, what we're gonna get in the markets for that gas, versus other items in our portfolio. Does that make sense right now, and where are we in the development life cycle of each of those assets, so again, as you look across our portfolio and we're determining where to spend our capital, we're looking across that entire portfolio and saying, where are they in their life cycle? Where should the capital allocation go?
There's no interest in us growing, you know, just to get bigger or just to increase production into a market that doesn't need it. It's really about watching the flow. You know, we talked about the supply and demand and what's the demand gonna look like over the next five years. Certainly that market's gonna grow. Having Dorado, we're gonna be well positioned to be active in that market. You know, in Dorado, we have, like I said, we set up the contract for the takeaway. We've set up, you know, the infrastructure. Everything is lining out for Dorado, but we're not just gonna pull the trigger because, you know, there's been an immediate change in the market. You know, the winds change overnight, and we're always watching, you know, what the demand market looks like. But we're well positioned in Dorado.
For now, our plan is to continue to study it, keep that one rig drilling, improve the cost efficiencies, and be ready to go when the time approaches.
We got fourth quarter call. Is it an important call for you guys? 'Cause you provide capital guides for 2025. You provide volume guides. Can you give us any breadcrumbs based on what you've said in the public domain about how you're thinking about volume and capital, as into the 2025 year?
Yeah, you're putting me on the spot. Yeah. Tough time to be talking in early January.
All right.
You know, really what we said, I'll just reiterate what I said before, is we're looking towards, we're in the final stages of developing that capital allocation, what the capital's gonna land at, what our capital allocation's gonna be across our basin. So we're in the final stages of doing that. But again, as I started out with, I think the activity levels that we saw in 2024, we were real pleased with. We thought that was a good fit for our organization, the size and the momentum. I'd expect similar activity levels as we enter 2025. Of course, we'll line out a little bit more of that capital allocation and how that shifts among the basins. We'll lay that out a little bit more clear as we come up to earnings.
I keep saying a few weeks, but it's about a month and a half from now, the end of February.
A few weeks. You take the lead.
At that point, we'll be able to really lay out how we're gonna execute on the value proposition for EOG, as we move into 2025. We think we're well laid out. We like the portfolio we have in place. We think there's a balance to it in that it's got oil and gas in it and that we really can shift and move to different basins, based on, you know, our capital allocation can be moved into those basins again, where we need it and more importantly, where they are in their life cycle and really laying out the basins thoughtfully so that we don't just jump into any type of manufacturing mode.
We don't like using the word manufacturing mode, but really develop it very thoughtfully and lay out our plans for each of those basins so that we execute them so that we can get the most value out of them. And then again, in turn, return value back to the shareholders. So, you know, you talked about earlier the capital structure and the share repurchases. We definitely leaned in more into the share repurchases. We think there has been a disconnect in our share price so the intrinsic value of EOG and our share price. And then quite frankly, in those inventory levels and what the financial markets are looking at. So there's been a disconnect there. So we've definitely leaned into repurchases as a way to return that value back to the shareholders. So, keep that in mind as we move into 2025 as well.
But again, we think we're well positioned. We set up our balance sheet. We have a great portfolio and we're excited to execute on our 2025 plan.
Great. That's a great place to leave it, and we'll listen to that fourth quarter call with a lot of enthusiasm and excitement, and thank you so much for being here. I wish you a wonderful 2025.
Thank you. Thank you for having me.
Starting it with us.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.