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Guidance

Jul 28, 2023

Werner Lanthaler
CEO, Evotec

Good morning, this is Werner speaking. I'm here together with our CFO, Laetitia. I'm here together with Volker, who is in charge of Investor Relations. Giving a business update during the summer is essential because we want to have a true and fair view of our business at every moment in time. After experiencing our cyberattack, we have collected all information now. With this, we are in a very good position to bring you up to speed with where we are in our business. We will, out of our criminal cyberattack, emerge stronger than ever before. If you go to page Number 2 on the presentation that we have uploaded, you see that we have started the year with exceptional progress.

2003 has shown us that it is possible to generate significant upfronts, significant milestones, out of our innovation-driven transactions that we have closed with Bristol Myers, that we have closed in the field of cell therapy with Janssen, that we have closed in the field of induced pluripotent stem cells with Sernova, and that we have closed in a huge technology partnership with Sandoz, where all together, we are collecting milestones, upfronts, and in the future, significant royalties. This is very important because this is a strong element driving Action Plan 2025, where milestones play an essential role to drive profitability. 2023 so far was an exceptional start when it comes to transactions, but it was also a year, or as we have called it here, a coin with two sides.

On the other side, if you go to page Number 3, you see that on April 6th, we were hit by a criminal cyberattack, where the criminal cyberattack caused us to go the maximum security step for our partners. With this, we decided to really contain all measures and to bring all measures in place to make the safest and best and most efficient Evotec ever for our partners. This does, of course, not come without cost, and that's the cost that you will see in the next couple of pages. What I can tell you now is that after an amazing reaction, and again, also on this situation, great thank you to our partners, but also great thank you to our internal team of how we handled this cyberattack.

We are now back at a situation where we have all processes switched on, while we are in the process to have full visibility, how processes will be switched on. This is especially true for our development business, where we are still in the final stages of switching on all GxP systems to bring back all production as it should be. From today's perspective, the cyberattack is behind us, and we are in full rebuild mode, which is, I think, important news for the next pages to follow. When it comes to the quantitative implication of this, let me bring you to page Number 4, and at this stage, hand over to Laetitia, who will bring you into the start of the year and also how we now assess the situation.

Laetitia Rouxel
CFO, Evotec

Thank you, Werner. Slide Number 4, we had an exceptionally strong start of the year. As just mentioned, revenues in Q1 2023 exceeded EUR 216 million, which implies a growth of 31% versus Q1 2022. A robust underlying base business, as well as the extended and the expanded collaborations with BMS in neurodegeneration and the targeted protein degradation, have contributed to this excellent performance. As the cyber hit us in the 1st week of Q2, on April 6th, the entire Q2 2023 was impacted by the deliberate shutdown. While the data available is sufficient to update on our model for this year, which now comes with wider ranges at this stage, it would be too early to provide an EBITDA figure at this stage.

All systems and the prioritization of forensic analysis before restarting the business led to a productivity of some 10% in April. The productivity improvements over the remainder of the quarter, as well as the signing of the technology partnership with Sandoz, resulted in revenues in the range of EUR 160 million-170 million for the Q2. The range we are providing today is related to the pending consolidation of local entities' results, as well as the review of our auditors. What can be said at this stage is that revenues have reached about EUR 375-385 million in the first 6 months of the year. Based on productivity levels seen over the course of Q2 and comparing results with internal forecasts, it's fair to assume that missed revenues amounted to approx EUR 70 million in the second quarter.

Moving to the outlook of the full- year, Page five. The Incremental business derived from new contracts with BMS and Sandoz led to advanced payments that were not initially planned in this order of magnitude. Our regular review of our economic situation, our order book, and our guidance resulted in an updated outlook for 2023. We now expect revenues to come in the range of EUR 750 million-EUR 790 million for the full- year. The range is due to the fact that we need to analyze what the impact of changing demand patterns will be eventually. Those figures have not been reviewed by our auditor, as previously mentioned. While we are confident that we catch up missed revenues based on the sales order book we have, which was a prudent approach of a widened range.

Main moving parts are recoverable revenues, as well as the underlying market dynamic and potential shift in demand. We will provide an update on August 29, while the release of H1 2023 results. Moving to Slide 6, April, already in April, to bounce back better and stronger, we started thinking of counterbalancing measures that are suitable to at least partially offset negative financial effects related to the cyber-attack by implementing, one, a Value Protection Plan for immediate and recurring savings. two, an optimized capital allocation of our resources. third, a strategic review. We started to continue investing in our four focus areas for technology leadership. This gives us a total saving identified of EUR 25 million in 2023. Turning now to the Page 7, to our outlook for adjusted EBITDA in 2023.

We have two buckets of cost, one related to the cyber-attack, one of cost to rebuild the business, for which we have a good but not a complete overview of cost, as still a few invoices are coming in. Our expectation is that the impact in 2023 will amount for EUR 25 million, which in essence, is a one-off impact. The second negative impact of missed revenues, again, it's a one-off, after deducting variable costs, will have an impact of EUR 55 million-EUR 60 million, which is resulting from a rather high ratio of fixed cost in our development business. On the positive side of the equation, we account for the positive effect of advance payments mentioned before in the bridge of revenues, exceeding the initial budget and a positive net effect related to our Value Protection program, cost savings, and efficiency program that we are committed to deliver.

Based on this cascade, we set our new adjusted EBITDA guidance at EUR 60 million-EUR 80 million, which has also to be seen in the context of a cumulative amount of more than EUR 90 million, one of cost, for which we do not adjust. We think that puts Evotec in a stronger position for starting the year 2024 in a much more robust setup, building the base for achieving our midterm goal as outlined in our Action Plan 2025. I hand over back to Werner.

Werner Lanthaler
CEO, Evotec

Thank you, Laetitia. If you go to page Number 8 of this presentation, you see the full picture of our new guidance reflected. When it comes to our revenue numbers, we have to correct down to EUR 750 million-EUR 790 million. When it comes to our unpartnered R&D, we are correcting down to EUR 60 million-EUR 70 million investment into technology leadership. When it comes to our adjusted EBITDA, we have to reflect the cyber-attack with adjusting down to EUR 60 million-EUR 80 million in adjusted EBITDA. We also took EUR 50 million out of our investment program, which used to be at EUR 250 million, because it's simply not possible to put all capacities online in the speed that we wanted to do this in 2023.

Nevertheless, we are going forward with about EUR 200 million of investments in CapEx, especially for building our Just - Evotec biologics manufacturing sites in Toulouse and in Redmond, in the United States. Many of you then often ask us the question: "How does this translate now into your long-term business? If you go to page Number 9, I think it is fair to say that our business, business is very well protected and long-term, absolutely validly positioned. With this, we are also confirming Action Plan 2025. Why do I say this? Because our exposure when it comes to market volatility, given our long-term transactions and given our upfront-bearing transactions, and given our milestone-bearing transactions with many of our partners, is different than for many short-term players in the industry.

With this, a long-term view on our business is possible, and with this, going above EUR 1 billion in sales is possible. Going to significantly higher EBITDAs, around EUR 300 million, is possible. Most importantly, building a co-owned pipeline with projects that are bearing royalties, with over 250 projects that are typically holding royalties of somewhere between 8% and 10%, is possible, and we are fully on our way to create the largest royalty pool in the industry. Translating this, as you see on page Number 10, into a bridge on especially our EBITDA, I think it's always important to highlight that on top of our today's business, which you have been seeing growing over the last decade, at every year above 10%, which this year, due to the cyber-attack, will not grow above 10%, but nevertheless will grow.

You will see that going back to a double-digit growth is absolutely valid into the future. You will also see that we have a clear operating leverage that we put into the business and a very strong plan for this. We are, of course, not shying away from efficiency measures that we have to do to create the best value protection for our business. On top of this, you will see incremental incomes from the deals I already mentioned at the beginning that are significant. Don't forget, there are up to EUR 5 billion in milestones only behind the transaction on targeted protein degradation. There are more than EUR 4 billion in milestones only behind the transaction in neurodegeneration. There is significant milestones also behind our transactions that we made with Lilly, that we made with Novo Nordisk and others.

That's why, of course, it's a variable bucket, but the bucket of milestones and upfront and licenses is a significant contributor to Action Plan 2025. On top of this, the capacity and the EBITDA contribution of Just - Evotec Biologics will kick in only after we have started the full production of our partnership programs in Just - Evotec Biologics and especially our J.PODs. With this, we are well on our way for Action Plan 2025, and we also, when it comes to page Number 11, want to highlight that our business is also, for this year, not closed. It's fully open for execution, and you will see strong results to come out of our four key areas. One of them being PanOmics, the second one being off-the-shelf induced pluripotent stem cells.

The third is a paradigm shift in biologics, Just - Evotec Biologics, and the fourth is our end-to-end shared R&D platform. With this, we wanted to give you an update on our cyber-attack and the impact of our business, and we are, of course, open for all questions that you might have. Thank you so much for following Evotec in the better days, but also sometimes in the not so good days, where we have to report impact on our business. Thank you so much. With this, we hand over to the operator and are more than happy to answer all questions.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question- and- answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press Star followed by one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press Star followed by two. If you're using speaker equipment today, please lift the handset before making your selections. Anyone who has a question may press Star followed by one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. The first question is from Michael Ryskin from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Michael Ryskin
Managing Director, Bank of America

Hey, thanks for taking the question. Appreciate all the color there. I have a couple quick ones. One, just going back to your commentary on the, you know, the updated guide. If I look at Slide 5, one of the components you do factor in there in the bridge is changing market dynamics in the second half. It seems like it's about a, you know, EUR 20 million headwind. Could you just expand on that a little bit? That seems like that's sort of unrelated to the cyber-attack. What's factoring into that? There's, you know, obviously a lot of chatter in the market in terms of what's going on in terms of demand from biopharma. Any additional color on that market dynamics point would be appreciated.

Werner Lanthaler
CEO, Evotec

What you should see is that especially the development business sees in our business, of course, an exposure to more transactional short-term business, where given especially biotech funding, we see still a lot of demand, but we see slower decision-making, and we see also here a market where I think it is fair to say that from a typical seller's market 2- 3 years ago, we have now come to a selective or more selective buyer's market. Only a small part of Evotec's business is, of course, also exposed to that part of the, the world. That's why, especially in the development business, we are also factoring in a little slowdown of the market environment. Of course, we see left and right what our partners at larger companies have reported, and we have also monitored that situation quite carefully.

Nevertheless, our discovery business, given our long-term contracts, is very robust, and we also see a very robust sales order book for 2023 in that part of the business, a very good outlook also for 2024. Nevertheless, biotech funding, I think, is one factor that goes to your question. Second is a situation where the COVID overhang, yeah, and also COVID spending is something that I think has normalized the market, quite significantly in some parts of the business. I think the long-term innovation trend that we are working on and that we are building is... in the long- term, not affected as much as the short- term, less technology-driven part of the business. Last comment, when we look at our Just - Evotec Biologics business, of course, we have also seen here market reports, and we have also discussed with our partners here.

At Just - Evotec Biologics, we are not competing for capacity in the market. We are representing a paradigm shift when it comes to more precise manufacturing of biologics and when it comes to higher cost-effective manufacturing of biologics. That's why this is a different category in the market than where you, from other partners, have seen very soft markets. I think our Sandoz endorsement of our platform is one testament to that. The Department of Defense is another testament to that. Overall, yes, markets are not easier these days, no doubt about it. Overall, we feel that we are representing a very strong segment in the market. I hope that gives you a broader color.

Michael Ryskin
Managing Director, Bank of America

Right. No, I, I appreciate that. Thanks. Follow-up, kind of related to that also, it goes to the phasing, or, you know, the cadence with the first half versus the second half. If you look at what you, you know, achieved in the first half, if you exclude the cyber-attack, would have been a very, very strong first half, as you said, I think 25%-30% growth in the first half. Even if you add back some of the missed one-off revenues in that catch-up, it's more of a mid-single- digit for the second half. It does seem like it went from what would have been a very back-half-ended loaded year to a big slowdown. I'm just wondering, is there, is there anything else that's that's not captured there?

Are you maybe factoring in some more conservatism on, you know, customers coming back after after you guys being offline for, for several months? Or just seems like one half would have exceeded the outlook so significantly, and yet, that's not showing up as you go through the rest of the year.

Werner Lanthaler
CEO, Evotec

Yeah. Very fair comment, but let me also again, point you into the direction of our very, very fixed cost-driven development business unit. Yeah. The development business unit has a lot of fixed costs. Switching that on after the cyber-attack and getting all the regulatory approvals is a process that really took a bit longer also, that we have initially factored in planning for partners to go into our development business is really only possible when you can give firm timelines to deliver their experiments in time. It's really this transactional business that is driving more than any other part of our business that softer output for the more executional business. That's the first factor that you really should see here.

The second factor that you should see, yes, there is a very strong underlying drug discovery and drug development business, which doesn't come from short-term transactions, but comes from long-term transactions. The last comment, we have not seen any partner not coming back at this stage. We have seen many partners who have, in their decision-making, been a bit slower or a bit more staggered. That's why factoring in full campaigns of drug discovery and drug development is probably a bit more on the, on the softer side at this stage. Also here, we are expecting biotech funding in the next quarters, not shortly, but in the next quarters to come back. We also see here quite good movement in many of the companies that we are working with.

That's why it might appear a bit slower in the second half, but that's then really only reflecting the development unit.

Michael Ryskin
Managing Director, Bank of America

Got it. No, I appreciate all that. All right, I'll get back in the queue. Thanks.

Werner Lanthaler
CEO, Evotec

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from James Quigley, from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

James Quigley
Executive Director of European Pharma and Biotech Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Morning. Thanks for taking my question. I've got a couple of fairly quickfire ones. Is there any insurance recovery for the cyber-attack that's already included in the guidance? Could this be an upside, and, and, and what could you potentially recover? In terms of, of the EUR 25 million cost savings you've identified for 2023, how much of this could be, could be recurring? To what extent, again, is this factored into, into the midterm targets? Could it be upside, or, or is it, is it, or is it now allowing you to get to the , to, EUR 300 million following any, any, any step back from the underlying market, as you, as you discussed in the last question?

Could you also quantify the proportion of the business that's exposed to, to the development side, and development contracts? Then a final one, which sites, will see or will be impacted by, by the reduced EUR 50 million investment? Appreciate there's been a lot of distraction from the cyber-attack, but, what's- have there been any other factors between the start of the year and now that has impacted your ability to, to invest, i.e., at the start of the year, EUR 250 million was possible, and now EUR 200 million is possible? Thank you.

Werner Lanthaler
CEO, Evotec

Thank you so much. I will take over the insurance questions. I will take over the development contracts and the site questions, and I'll then hand back to Laetitia for the EUR 25 million cost saving and the midterm target impact on, on recurring revenues there. We are unfortunately advised not to disclose any insurance numbers and any discussions with our insurance. Sorry for that answer. These are ongoing discussions, and therefore, we are advised not to comment further than what we have done to that. When it comes to our Development business, the total capacity available for Development business is somewhere in the range of EUR 150 million-EUR 200 million at this stage, with capacity that we are planning to even expand beyond that. That gives the total part of that business that is reflected here.

If you take a full quarter of basically not being able to deliver, then it shows you also the dimension of impact here. When it comes to our investment project, which sites are affected from that, we are, and I think that's important at this stage, very selective when it comes to capacity expansion at all sites, with the exception of everything that is capacity building for Just - Evotec Biologics. Here we go and continue to go full speed in ramping up Redmond, in ramping up Toulouse for Just - Evotec Biologics investment.

When it comes to sites where we are especially expanding capacity in chemistry or expanding capacity in our classical drug development and drug discovery offerings, we are not so keen to, at this stage, spend more than absolutely necessary. That would mainly affect our sites in Verona, that would affect our sites in Riom, that would affect our sites in Germany as well. Again, we are talking here about a slowdown of capacity expansion, not a stop or anything like that. With the same back to Laetitia.

Laetitia Rouxel
CFO, Evotec

Yes, thank you. Answering your question regarding the cost savings. We have implemented a Value Protection Plan for immediate impact this year, totaling for EUR 25 million. Part of this EUR 25 million already implemented is recurring, a part is not. That's why we are in parallel starting an efficiency program and restructuring program to make sure that we have embedded in the 2025 strategy planning, the recurring savings. We are really into fine-tuning all that for the for the mid-term efficiency program. We can't commit at this point of time on how much it concerns, but at least already EUR 25 million this year, recurring and non-recurring, and the objective is to get this already fully into the equation of 2025 for the years to come.

James Quigley
Executive Director of European Pharma and Biotech Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Great. Thank you. Can I just-

Werner Lanthaler
CEO, Evotec

That would represent a bit of upside to also illustrate that.

James Quigley
Executive Director of European Pharma and Biotech Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Got you. Thank you. Can I, can I just quickly clarify, 'cause with the EUR 150 million-EUR 200 million capacity, can you repeat what you said about how much the impacted or the impact it cracked up? I heard quarter, but I didn't hear how many quarters.

Werner Lanthaler
CEO, Evotec

No, one quarter. One quarter.

James Quigley
Executive Director of European Pharma and Biotech Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Thank you.

Werner Lanthaler
CEO, Evotec

Yeah.

Operator

The next question is from Lucy Codrington from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Lucy Codrington
Associate Equity Analyst, Jefferies

Hi there. Thanks for taking my questions, just a few left. Just on the shortfall, was most of that lost contract revenues, or did that also include any lost milestones? I think you've already answered this, your customer retention rate hasn't been affected. Just in terms of the EUR 70 million in lost revenues, some of those are potentially recoverable, is that right? These revised aims are worst case, or do you already include recoverable work in the revised aims? Thank you.

Werner Lanthaler
CEO, Evotec

I will hand back to Laetitia on the recoverable work then. If I may, on your first part of the question, of course, we have not been able to deliver our full milestone potential in Q2, given the fact that simply our platform hasn't been operating. Having said that, milestones are primarily driven by biological events and by biological data. Of course, there is a strong aim to catch up on potential milestones in Q3 and especially in Q4. The potential of milestones is clearly there. There is a catch-up effect that we want to achieve, especially for Q4, and I would, at this stage, categorize no milestones lost, but we have to achieve them. I think the bigger driver here is biology and not the capacity that is simply not available for a few months due to the cyber-attack.

With the same back to Laetitia.

Laetitia Rouxel
CFO, Evotec

To answer to your question regarding the recoverable part of our business just in Q2, indeed, there is part of it that it is recoverable, and that's exactly the reason why we have quite a wide range, let's say, into the revenue guidance we give at this point of time, because we need now to really see from a capacity perspective, internal capacity, but also how much of this Q2 impact we can recover. We expect, yes, to be able to recover, but how much is really something we would like to fine-tune and come back to you for the next communication with more details. That explained the broad range, you know, of the EUR 750-EUR 790, exactly for this part on the recoverable part that we need to fine-tune.

Werner Lanthaler
CEO, Evotec

Thank you.

Lucy Codrington
Associate Equity Analyst, Jefferies

Thank you.

Werner Lanthaler
CEO, Evotec

Any further questions?

Operator

The next question is from Falco Friedrichs, from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Falco Friedrichs
Director of Equity Research, Deutsche Bank

Hello, good morning, everyone. I just have two further clarification questions, right, because this is obviously the top of mind of investors on this biotech side. Can you share with us how much of your revenue is coming from this development unit? That's the first part. Within that, how much is truly exposed to this lower early-stage biotech environment? My second question, I think also very important to hear from everyone. You said this biotech environment, right, that could linger on for a few quarters. In light of that, what makes you confident that your 2025 targets shouldn't be affected at all by this? Thank you.

Werner Lanthaler
CEO, Evotec

Pleasure. When it comes to biotech, we probably really have to differentiate here a bit between virtual biotechs that are funded, don't have platforms on their side, or biotechs that have some platforms and are kind of hybrid working together with Evotec, or biotechs that are mid-sized to larger biotechs that are especially then working with us on high technology programs. It's, it's a, it's a broad market to define biotech. Having said that, it's the whole biotech segment that sees a slower funding environment than we have seen this in 2021, 2022. I think I don't educate you on anything new here. Where I would call the year 2021 as the exception and not the norm.

Our expectation long- term is that biotech funding goes back to the levels of 2019, 2018, with a modest growth that is technology driven there behind that. That's also factored into our long-term capacity planning. Long-term capacity planning at Evotec has not been built on the exceptional funding years of 2021. It's really more the long-term trends that we have seen for this segment, which given the overall market need, is still very healthy. Second part of your question is that Evotec is typically not working with highly cost-sensitive and tactical businesses in biotech, because most of them are outsourcing to China. Evotec is the high quality partner for high valid and high IP-driven data.

These are also biotech companies, where a lot of the funding rounds have happened in the years 2021, 2022, and these funds raised their money in 2019, 2020. There's a very robust underlying venture fund community, and also very strong companies. These are typically our partners, and they have long-term plans and not tactical work that they are giving to us. With this, we have a better view than some of the partners who are suffering here from only tactical work that goes to especially China, India, or other players. That's what makes us, on the overall market environment, quite confident. Because first, that's a limited community to our overall revenue exposure. I would categorize it somewhere between 25% and 40%.

The rest of our business is driven by very strong pharma partners who are very often even increasing their innovation targets at this stage, and with this, even increasing our exposure, the exposure to us. The third part of our business, don't forget, are mission-driven foundations, who are, from a funding environment perspective, at this stage, not affected at all. Our Development business, as already said, is somewhere between EUR 150 million and EUR 200 million of capacity that we can deliver there. If you take somewhere the midpoint of that, then you have a potential revenue target of that unit in our business. As already commented before, you can deduct one quarter of that for this year. I hope that gives you color, Falco.

Falco Friedrichs
Director of Equity Research, Deutsche Bank

Yes, yes, it does. Thank you, Werner.

Werner Lanthaler
CEO, Evotec

Pleasure.

Operator

For any further questions, please press Star and one. The next question is from Christian Ehmann from Warburg Research. Please go ahead.

Christian Ehmann
Equity Analyst, Warburg Research

Good morning, everyone. I have to ask again towards the CapEx payment or investment this year, should we just model the EUR 50 million, which you then don't invest this year for the next year? Speak just for to clarify it for me, please

Regarding your recurring revenue, your recurring customer rate, could you give us a little more detail on why this exactly, do you see the more refrained or more colder approach towards the starting new businesses? Is it because of your performance, or is it because of the biotech performance in general, of the general market performance? Just to clarify this, please, for me.

Werner Lanthaler
CEO, Evotec

Yeah.

Christian Ehmann
Equity Analyst, Warburg Research

The third one would be very, very plainly technical question. Pan, the PanOmics and PanHunter platforms were offline during all those time, I assume. Do you have, you have to refund some of your customers for this? Thank you very much.

Werner Lanthaler
CEO, Evotec

The third point is very clear no, because PanOmics and PanHunter is especially areas where it is simply amazing to see what Evotec people can do in taking a crisis, coming back stronger than ever before, and catching up really everything that was lost as, as work there, and therefore, not even getting close to any refunding situation for, for any partner. Again, thanks to the team here. On the CapEx question, I'll then hand over to Laetitia. On the recurring business question, this is absolutely not due to our performance.

I would say in contrast, we, we see certain areas of our business where we have more demand than we can fulfill at this stage, and other parts of our business, again, especially the Development business, where we simply cannot deliver because we haven't been able to bring all these capacities back online. That's happening as we speak, so therefore, the catch-up effect will happen here. That's also where you have, of course, partners in the last three months simply had to make their experiment happen, and there has been a certain switch to other partners. There, I'm pretty sure that, every partner, we will get them back.

Laetitia Rouxel
CFO, Evotec

Hearing your question on the CapEx element, we mentioned the slight decrease from EUR 250 million this year to EUR 200 million. Yes, it is a proactive approach, also from an internal perspective, as we have to fight first to get the business back. There is a timing delay in those investments. This year, we expect to have a lower CapEx investment. With all this VPP, Value Protection Plan program and efficiency program, our objective is to be back on full in line with the strategic plan for the year to come. We expect to keep the same CapEx investment in the years to come than was originally planned.

Werner Lanthaler
CEO, Evotec

Just to clarify again, if I may, full investments behind capacity, expansion, and build-up of Just - Evotec Biologics, no slowdown there. It's actually opposite here. We are even trying to increase because we see significant demand underlying our Sandoz transaction, underlying our Department of Defense transaction.

Laetitia Rouxel
CFO, Evotec

To further build, it's, it's part of the reallocation of our investments that we mentioned also, which we reinforce and go even further on on J.POD. While on some other areas, we, we slow down to catch up later on, as of the build, the, the year 2023 strengthens, and we have the, the right structure, then we'll go back with the same full force as planned.

Christian Ehmann
Equity Analyst, Warburg Research

Thank you.

Werner Lanthaler
CEO, Evotec

Tasha, any further questions?

Operator

The next question is from Joseph Hedden from Rx Securities. Please go ahead.

Joseph Hedden
Equity Analyst, Rx Securities

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. just on your 2025 targets, Slide 10, it's evident you've provided a little more detail on how we're getting to the EUR 300 million EBITDA in 2025, and milestones, upfronts, and licenses make up a fairly significant proportion of that. Just wondering, how you arrive at that kind of figure of EUR 70 million, with milestones. Are you thinking specific milestones from collaborations you have, or is it more a percentage of the total opportunities to get to that figure? How, how much, if anything, are you assuming some royalties in there? Thanks very much.

Werner Lanthaler
CEO, Evotec

Thanks for the question. Of course, there is a model behind this, where the way we have built this over the past is you take all transactions that are milestone-bearing, you give all milestones an assumed timeline and assumed achievement date, and then you take a certain attrition rate on milestones. That's why, again, having a EUR 5 billion targeted protein degradation model behind that, where we are running more than 20 early projects in oncology at this stage, delivering significant milestones, as you have already also seen them happening in the last 2 years. By these projects progressing to later stage of development, milestones even getting bigger. That's how the model works and how this is coming together as that number, where you, of course, also see an approximation of that number, where there's two insecurities.

One is biology, second is timing of how to achieve that. The overall potential to achieve such a dimension of milestones is already there by, again, stressing that there's more than, by far more than EUR 10 billion of milestones already in our contracts. Don't forget, we are achieving these milestones on the basis of long-term partners who are more than happy to build pipelines and who are not slowing down, like BMS, like Lilly, like Novo Nordisk, like Bayer and, and others. That's really what brings into this equation. The, the degree of royalties behind Action Plan 2025 is only absolutely minor. That's not what's driving that, because royalties would come from projects that are now in late stage, phase III, or approval stage, which we don't see, with the exception of smaller projects in, in China and Asia.

That will then kick in the years 2026, 2027, earliest.

Joseph Hedden
Equity Analyst, Rx Securities

Okay, that's great. Thanks a lot.

Werner Lanthaler
CEO, Evotec

Pleasure. Any further questions?

Operator

There are no further questions, sir.

Werner Lanthaler
CEO, Evotec

Let me, with this, first of all, thank you very much. Let me thank you for your interest. Let me also apologize that we had to give you a late night information and an early call. Nevertheless, let me thank you even more for your interest in, in dialing in at this stage. All the very best to you. We will come back to you with an even clearer update on August 29, when we report our first half of the year. Thank you, have a great day.

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