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Earnings Call: Q4 2022

May 4, 2022

Operator

Good afternoon and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Flex fiscal Q4 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Presently, all participants are in the listen-only mode. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Mr. David Rubin. You may begin, sir.

David Rubin
VP of Investor Relations, Flex

Thank you, Carl. Good afternoon, and welcome to Flex's Q4 fiscal 2022 Earnings Conference Call. With me today is our Chief Executive Officer, Revathi Advaithi, and our Chief Financial Officer, Paul Lundstrom. Both will give brief remarks followed by Q&A. This call is being webcast live and recorded. Slides for today's presentation, along with a copy of the earnings press release and summary financials, are available on the investor relations page at flex.com. As a reminder, today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are based on our current expectations, assumptions, and predictions. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. For full discussion of these risks and uncertainties, please see the cautionary statements in our presentation and press release of the Risk Factors section in our most recent filings with the SEC.

Note this information is subject to change, and we undertake no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. Unless otherwise specified, we will refer to non-GAAP metrics on this call. The full non-GAAP to GAAP reconciliations can be found in the appendix slide of today's presentation, as well as in the summary financials posted in investor relations website. As previously disclosed, the draft registration statement on Form S-1 relating to the proposed initial public offering of Nextracker's Class A common stock remains on file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The initial public offering and its timing are subject to market and other conditions and the SEC's review process. We made this announcement in accordance with Rule 135 under the Securities Act. Following SEC regulations, we will not make any further statements or answer any additional questions on the Nextracker filing at this time.

Now I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO. Revathi?

Revathi Advaithi
CEO, Flex

Thank you, David. Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today, we'll talk about our results for our fiscal Q4 and also our full year results, which was another outstanding year in the midst of lots of macro challenges. Paul will then take you through the detailed results. First, I'll start by saying I'm very proud of our team for delivering exceptional results for our customers and all our stakeholders. Their continued dedication helped us deliver strong performance this fiscal year. I also believe that in the midst of crisis is when true partnerships are built, and we have significantly strengthened our partnerships with our customers and suppliers as we navigated through the dynamic supply chain environment. While delivering record performance this year, we have kept our eyes focused on the longer-term direction of our company.

We laid this out for you in our most recent Investor Day, which sets the stage for our next phase of profitable growth. Now going to the next slide, let's look at some of our accomplishments. Q4 was up over 9% year-over-year and over 3% sequentially. As you all know, seasonally, this is usually our weakest quarter, with overall revenue typically down about 10% sequentially. Our ability to deliver revenue growth shows the continued strength and demand across the portfolio as well as the team's incredible execution while operating in this environment. A good example is in our automotive business. Despite some major industry disruptions, our automotive business grew both sequentially and year-over-year, while S&P Global auto production volumes declined.

Both industrial and CEC also had very strong quarters, all of which led to strong revenue and record adjusted EPS levels in the quarter. For the full year, revenue was up about 8% year-over-year, and we delivered record full year adjusted operating margins as well as a record EPS on both an adjusted and GAAP basis. Our industrial business was also very strong for the full year, with ramps in a number of key markets, including next-generation robotics, EV charging stations, and multiple ramps in renewables and power technologies. Remember, these ramps in renewables are in addition to our Nextracker business, which is now its own separate segment. As you will see, Nextracker also saw very strong revenue growth this year.

Lifestyle strength continued, driven partially by strong current demand, but more importantly, much of this is from winning new business as we solve increasingly complex challenges and provide customers with value-added services such as logistics and fulfillment and expanding our circular economy activities. I will also point out that we executed on our capital allocation strategy this year as we stepped up our investments in future growth. We increased CapEx by about 60%, with over 60% of that allocated specifically for funding anticipated organic growth. We also completed our Anord Mardix acquisition, expanding our presence in data center critical power, which creates cross-selling opportunities with our core data center business. In addition, we repurchased a record $686 million worth of stock. Now turning to slide four.

As we covered in our recent Investor Day, there are several macro and secular trends driving growth in outsourced manufacturing. At its core, these trends are about increasing complexity that many companies are finding more difficult, sometimes even impossible, to solve by themselves. This complexity is creating higher value growth opportunities for Flex because we have the right capabilities. We have the global footprint and the scale to solve these challenges for our customers. We have transformed into a more adaptable and resilient advanced manufacturer. In recognition of our progress, we are honored to have been recently recognized with three manufacturing leadership awards for outstanding leadership and achievements in the categories of enterprise integration and technology, operations excellence, and sustainability.

Our focus on strengthening our core capabilities in each of our six business units and delivering in key end markets continues to manifest in new wins that will drive growth in the years to come. At our investor day, we highlighted just three of these key end markets that we have doubled down on. They were the next generation mobility, the digital healthcare, and cloud expansion. Now, putting these three markets in perspective, next gen mobility, for example, is fueling our growth with new wins in support of EV and autonomy technology transitions. Our technological knowledge and domain expertise is leading to new opportunities and expanding collaborations. Of course, an exciting example of this is our recently announced partnership with NVIDIA's DRIVE program for Level 2+ to Level 5 autonomy. We also recently announced a major win with Enphase, a leading global energy technology company.

That's expanding on 15 years of partnership where we have been selected to support Enphase's European market expansion for micro-inverter solar solutions. In our health solutions group this year, we began several medical device ramps addressing multiple aspects of chronic care, and these wins will drive growth through the next few years. In our cloud business, we initiated multiple new ramps with a few of our hyperscale partners late in the year, which led to strong growth for CEC in Q4, but more importantly, will contribute to accelerating growth for fiscal 2023. Again, these are just a few examples from the diverse end markets we play in. We're in a strong position to capitalize on these long-term opportunities through our continued focus on manufacturing and supply chain technology and targeted growth markets.

We remain focused on the factors that will drive sustainable growth, margin improvement, and creating shareholder value. With that, I'll turn it over to Paul to take you through our financials. Paul?

Paul Lundstrom
CFO, Flex

Okay. Great. Thanks, Revathi, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll begin on slide six with a review of our Q4 results. Please note all remarks will be based on non-GAAP results unless stated otherwise. The GAAP reconciliations can be found in the appendix of this presentation. Our Q4 revenue came in at $6.9 billion, up 9% year-over-year. Operating income was $295 million, with earnings per share at $0.52 for the quarter, a year-over-year increase of 6%. Free cash flow was $252 million and up year-over-year. Just taking a step back and looking at our full year performance on slide seven. With focused execution throughout a very dynamic environment, we delivered full year revenue of $26 billion, up 8% year-over-year.

Operating income for the fiscal year 2022 totaled $1.169 billion. That was up 13% year-over-year, despite the challenges caused by component shortages and COVID flare-ups. For the full year, Flex achieved record EPS of $1.96, which was up 25% year-over-year. 2022 free cash flow was $593 million. Turning to our Q4 segment results on the next slide. Reliability revenue was $2.8 billion, an increase of 12% year-over-year, driven by improved execution against strong demand in auto and industrial, and with some tailwind also from Anord Mardix. Operating income was $140 million. Operating margin was 4.9%, with pressure from material shortages that created some inefficiencies in industrial.

In Agility, revenue is up $3.6 billion, up 4% year-over-year, driven by strong demand across Lifestyle and CEC, partially offset by planned declines in Consumer Devices. Operating income was $152 million, up about 12% year-over-year, with nice margin expansion, up almost 30 basis points to 4.2%. Finally, Nextracker revenue was $440 million, up 38% year-over-year due to continued strong demand. Adjusted operating income for Nextracker was $22 million, with pressure on margins from higher freight logistics costs. On slide nine, looking at performance for the full year. Reliability revenue was $10.6 billion, with operating margins up slightly at 5.1%. Within Reliability, automotive revenue is up 15%, primarily due to new program ramps reflective of the growing demand for our next-gen mobility portfolio.

Health Solutions was down slightly against a tough compare. Recall that in 2021, Health Solutions was up 25%, with record growth driven by critical care products that were instrumental at the height of the pandemic. Now that we've lapped that comp, we expect Health Solutions to be growing in the range that Randy outlined at our Investor Day. Lastly, Industrial had a strong year, with revenue up 17%, primarily from solid organic growth and with some tailwind from Anord Mardix. Just moving down the page here. Agility segment revenue came in at $14 billion, delivering a record 4.3% op margin. That was up 1 full point for the year. Within Agility, CEC was up roughly 3% with growth from new project ramps, but had some headwinds due to the continued component shortages.

Consumer devices revenue was down mid-single digits, caused largely by planned contract completions and is representative of our active program management. Finally, Lifestyle had record performance, with revenue increasing 14%, primarily due to outstanding execution, successful program ramps, and robust end market demand. Nextracker completed the year with revenue of $1.5 billion, a year-over-year improvement of about 22%, and ended the year with a 6.2% operating margin, driven by higher freight logistics costs. Overall, solid performance with all segments returning to revenue growth this year, and we have some great momentum as we head into the fiscal year 2023. On slide 10, cash flow. Net CapEx for the quarter totaled $108 million, and for the full year came in at $431 million. That was about 1.7% of revenue.

Free cash flow was $252 million for the quarter and $593 million for the full year. Free cash flow conversion for the year was 63%. In the quarter, we repurchased 6 million shares, totaling about $105 million. For the full fiscal year, we spent $686 million repurchasing 38 million shares, and that represented about 8% of the shares outstanding. We closed the quarter with inventory of $6.6 billion. Inventory turns were down to 4.1, indicative of the dynamic supply chain environment that's challenging the industry. Please turn to slide 11 for our segment outlook for the fiscal Q1 and our year-on-year growth expectations. Beginning with Reliability Solutions, we expect revenue to be up high single digits to mid-teens, with healthy demand across all three business units.

Automotive and Industrial will have multiple program ramps beginning this quarter as well. Turning to Agility Solutions, revenue is expected to be up low to high single digits year-over-year. As Revathi had mentioned, the significant macro trends driving robust cloud demand should fuel strong growth in CEC. We also expect positive demand trends to continue into the quarter for Lifestyle, offset by Consumer Devices, which is facing a tough prior year comp that includes a program that we wrapped up in Q2 of last year. On to slide 12 for our quarterly guidance. We expect revenue in the range of $6.6-$7 billion, with adjusted operating income between $285-$315 million. Interest and other expense is estimated to be between $40 million-$45 million, and the tax rate should be within that 13%-15% range.

We expect adjusted EPS between $0.44 and $0.50 a share based on approximately 471 million weighted average shares outstanding. On the following slide, we have our fiscal year 2023 guidance. We walked you through this at our Investor Day, so I won't spend a lot of time on it, but I'll remind you that we're expecting 8% year-over-year revenue growth at the midpoint of our guidance of $27.7 billion-$28.7 billion. Adjusted EPS is expected to be between $2.09 and $2.24 a share. That's about $2.16 at the midpoint. To wrap it up before we begin Q&A, closing out a tremendous fiscal year 2022, we remain focused on driving profitable growth as we execute on the high-value opportunities presented by long-term secular trends.

We've demonstrated that our strategic initiatives have established a solid foundation, and Flex is uniquely positioned within the industry to serve those growth markets. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to our operator to begin Q&A. Carl?

Operator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer portion of today's call. If you have questions, please press star one on your phone. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press the pound key. As a reminder, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. One moment please for the first question. Our first question comes from the line of Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Mark Delaney
VP and Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yes, good afternoon, and thank you very much for taking the questions. Looking at the fiscal 2023 outlook relative to what was discussed about a month ago at the Analyst Day, it looks like the revenue and the midpoint of DPS guidance are both slightly higher, and that's despite some of the continued challenges around COVID in particular in China. Hoping you can better understand what's driving the updated view on fiscal 2023.

Paul Lundstrom
CFO, Flex

Yeah, I'll start that, Mark. If Revathi wants to chime in here, she'll do that as well. Relative to the Analyst Day, we came in Q4 a little bit better than what we'd expected, and so we dropped some of that revenue through. You see the midpoint of our guidance did come up a little bit for the year. You know, at this point, we held EPS flat to what we had indicated at the Investor Day. I think we had said $2.16, really didn't give you a range. Right now, I would say $2.16 is still the midpoint. You know, pretty upbeat about you know, that high single digit top line growth that we had messaged and a pretty good EPS.

Mark Delaney
VP and Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay. [uncertain] My follow-up question, hoping to better understand some of the headwinds that are weighing on EBIT margins. You talked about some of the cost and logistics headwinds. Could you be a little bit more specific on how you expect those to trend over the course of fiscal 2023? Because I think you need to go from the lower 4% range at the midpoint of the fiscal Q1 guidance, you know, and see that improve over the course of the year in order to get the full year to the 4.7%-4.9%. Maybe talk a little bit about what you're seeing and then how you expect that to behave over the course of the year. Thank you.

Revathi Advaithi
CEO, Flex

Yeah, Mark, I'll start by saying that in the last, you know, few years, we have shown our ability to really continuously improve our margin dollars, our margin rates, you know. We've really, you know, shown well in the middle of all this ups and downs and all the macro challenges, that we've been really good at driving the right mix, the right kind of growth, and managing through all our inefficiencies that happen as a result of supply chain and pandemic and all that. I'd say fiscal 2022, again, very good margin improvement. Our fiscal 2023 guide right now still shows very good margin improvement. I'd say that'll move around a little bit in the quarters just because we continue to work through some of the supply chain inefficiencies, whether it's China shutdown or things like that.

You know, we have to ramp up and down as we see availability of critical products. You know, that will tend to happen, but we feel very good about kind of first is the mix of our bookings that converts to revenue that is improving our overall margin profile, and which really gives us confidence in our ability to guide where we are guiding right now for fiscal 2023. I'd say, yep, it'll move around a little bit in the quarters based on how much inefficiency happens, you know, with supply chain disruptions and things like that. You know, our history shows that we manage this extremely well, and we'll continue to feel strong about how we can deliver the rest of the year.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Matt Sheerin with Stifel. Please ask your question.

Matthew Sheerin
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Stifel

Yes, thank you and good afternoon. I'm just following up on the question regarding supply chain challenges and the component constraints. It seems like, you know, you over-delivered and a lot of your peers did too. Of course, you and your peers have built inventory over the last few quarters. Is that starting to benefit you, where you're putting materials in place for, you know, orders a month, two months out, and you're now helping fulfill that? Is that the strategy going forward with this inventory build?

Revathi Advaithi
CEO, Flex

Yeah, Matt, first is, you know, spot on, right? I mean, the idea always has this inventory builds up, we said before that it's all about kind of that golden screw mindset, where it's waiting for one component, and as that component clears up, we want to be able to meet the demand for our customers, right? That's what you're seeing us execute to with the revenue upside that we're seeing in these quarters, that as products comes in and we're able to free up the bill of materials and build the product, you know, we're able to execute really well.

I'd say the inventory buildup itself, I expect that it'll start balancing out, right, towards the end of the year, and you're gonna see that happen, and that's the right thing to do because my eventual focus will always be to get turns back to where we think we want it to be. This is a very unique situation with what's happening with the supply chain congestion, and so we're very committed to delivering the growth our customers want us to. That's why you see the inventory buildup. The strategy won't be to continue to keep inventory at an inflated level to meet that demand. The hope is that the supply chain congestion at some point starts to ease up, so you can get to the right level of turns to deliver the, you know, the growth that we're looking for.

Matthew Sheerin
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Stifel

Got it. Just regarding the inventory, are your customers paying you in advance? Are you seeing an increase in customer deposits?

Paul Lundstrom
CFO, Flex

Matt, I'll take that one. They are. You know, I wish it was a dollar-for-dollar offset, but if you look year-on-year at our working capital advances coming in from customers, you know, Q4 of 2022 versus Q4 2021, you know, we're up almost 3x. So that's, you know, I'd say, you know, close to $1 billion worth of help in terms of that offsets to inventory growth. So they are helping. I wish it was dollar for dollar, but it certainly has helped to mitigate the impact.

Matthew Sheerin
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Stifel

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Fox with Fox Advisors. Please ask your question.

Steven Fox
Founder and CEO, Fox Advisors

Hi, good afternoon. Couple questions. First off, the cash balance is up substantially going into the end of the year, approaching $3 billion. Can you sort of talk about what's behind that? You know, you guys, you know, your investors don't want you to hoard cash, what you're thinking about doing with it in the coming fiscal year, especially, with regard to the guidance, whether any usage of cash is factored in. I have a follow-up.

Paul Lundstrom
CFO, Flex

Yeah, sure.

Revathi Advaithi
CEO, Flex

Steven is all yours.

Paul Lundstrom
CFO, Flex

Okay. Sure. You know, I'll just maybe start with this. You know, on free cash flow, you know, you didn't hear us talk about the script, but I'll just kind of voice it over just so everyone is clear. $550 million is the free cash flow expectation for 2023 here. That will likely be more back-end loaded, as Revathi here had alluded to. I mean, I think we'll continue to see some pressure on inventory for the next couple of quarters. You know, I would expect that to start to abate. Probably more of a back-half loaded free cash year for us. In terms of the cash on the balance sheet itself, look, we've been operating in a very unusual environment over the last few years.

You got COVID, you got shortages, you got logistics constraints. Now you have war. I think we've all concluded with that backdrop, it's smart to have flexibility and to have some liquidity. That liquidity has been beneficial for us. You look at the intra-quarter working capital requirements, you know, the cash requirements from peak to trough, they're more significant than what they've been, you know, in the past couple of years. That peak to trough for us typically is, I don't know, 30% plus of our inventory level. You kind of do the back of the envelope math on it, that's a fairly high, you know, peak to trough use of cash throughout a quarter.

You know, inventory, you know, as you know, it's significantly higher than it was at that sort of pre-COVID level. You know, there's we need some balance sheet support. We need some balance sheet strength to support that. I'll say this, we like where we are. We're in a very strong financial position to manage through what is a very dynamic environment, as you know, because of the liquidity we have. You know, we don't wanna be in a position to pinch ourselves here should things soften up a little bit. We like where we are. You know, it's a high balance, you know, as I see it today, but I think it's appropriate given the dynamic environment and what we've been seeing with inventory.

Steven Fox
Founder and CEO, Fox Advisors

The guidance for the full year doesn't assume use of cash for anything outside of working capital and organic initiatives?

Paul Lundstrom
CFO, Flex

You are correct. We are assuming that share count is flat, and so, you know, the 2.16 EPS that we're guiding to here at the midpoint presumes that, you know, we take care of things like dilution from equity comp, but, you know, we have not baked in, you know, share count declines.

Steven Fox
Founder and CEO, Fox Advisors

Great. Then just as a follow-up on the, like, you pointed out, the auto, your auto sales are significantly outgrowing, you know, vehicle production right now. I'm just curious if we start to assume whatever normal production looks like maybe later in the year, hopefully, does that outflow sort of normalize also? Or should we think of the outflow that you're having right now as, you know, sustainable into subsequent quarters? If so, why or why not? Thanks.

Revathi Advaithi
CEO, Flex

You know, we've said in the Investor Day, we spent a lot of time talking about our focus on kinda, you know, the EV space and next-gen mobility. We feel very strongly, and we did a deep dive on it for the reason that we really feel strongly that we are outperforming the industry because our technology is very strong and we're really getting rewarded in terms of bookings for this next-gen mobility. Our reason for outperforming, I feel, is twofold. One is, you know, we're always able to perform well in terms of supply chain shortages and how we manage that. We have a strong relationship with our OEMs and suppliers, so that definitely helps.

I feel comfortable with our outperformance for the sector even moving forward just because of the thesis we laid out in the Investor Day, that this is a high focus area for us, lot of new wins. You saw the kinda estimated EAR number that Mike Thoeny laid out for this space. Our view is that we'll continue to outperform the IHS guidance for this space.

Steven Fox
Founder and CEO, Fox Advisors

Great. Thank you so much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ruplu Bhattacharya with Bank of America. Please ask your question.

Ruplu Bhattacharya
Director, Bank of America

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. Revathi, you took up the fiscal 2023 revenue guide by $400 million. Can you talk about which end markets are outperforming versus what you thought at the Analyst Day? This might be nitpicking, but I mean, you kept the EPS guidance at $2.16. You know, that $400 million probably translates to about $0.03 or $0.04 in EPS. Is there any further headwinds to margins than what you had thought at the Analyst Day? Or is it just you're being conservative on the EPS given the macro situation now?

Revathi Advaithi
CEO, Flex

Ruplu Bhattacharya, thanks for the question. I'd say the first thing in terms of overall lifting our revenue guide, you know, we really outperformed our Q4 number, as you saw, right? That, looking at that and our ability to just manage this whole shortage clearance and everything for the year, we felt like, you know, we had to take up revenue for FY 2023 right now, even though it's early in the year. You know, we feel really good about how we're clearing shortages and how we're managing demand, and so that was kind of the overall view. The sectors, I would say is accross the board and the reason I would say that's the case is because we have demand backlog in all of our six segments. It's not one or the other.

Because of that, I would say overall, all six segments are outperforming to what our original thesis for the year was. We feel quite comfortable that we will continue to see that over the next few quarters, that we'll be clearing shortages and improving our demand outlook, pretty well to the guidance we have given. I'd say in terms of EPS, Paul will jump into this. I'd say it's just a little early in the Q1 as we feel very comfortable about our margin guide. Let me be very clear about that. Our margin percent, we have shown our ability to deliver this. Will there be inefficiencies through quarters because of China shutdown or something else? Yeah, absolutely. That's gonna happen. We always come through in terms of how we manage the combination of kind of productivity and managing this efficiency.

Feel very comfortable about our adjusted operating margin guide of 4.8%. I think just a little too early to start changing our numbers for fiscal 2023. You know how we are in terms of how we guide Paul. I think we feel like it's Q1 , it's too early to do that. You know, we'll look through the year and see how it comes through, and then, you know, hopefully EPS will move up with the rest of the numbers. Paul, anything to add?

Paul Lundstrom
CFO, Flex

Yeah, just a couple minor things, Paul. I mean, for modeling purposes, you probably wanna model a little bit more interest cost. That's probably a couple cents of headwind and probably the higher end of that, you know, 13%-15% tax rate given what we know today. That's the sort of offset to incremental margin that you would expect from that $400 million more in revenue. It all kinda rinses out.

Ruplu Bhattacharya
Director, Bank of America

Yeah. No, that makes sense. Thanks for the details on that. Just on some of the investments you're going to make in fiscal 2023, I think you had said CapEx of 2%. Is that still the case? What areas are you going to be investing in organically? Any thoughts on M&A? I mean, do you think that's feasible in this environment? Any thoughts on the capital allocation? Thank you.

Revathi Advaithi
CEO, Flex

Yeah. I'd say let me start with overall CapEx. Yes, we're gonna have to continue to invest in the CapEx rate we committed to just because our organic growth is so strong, right? We're gonna have to invest in growth, to deliver the bookings we're seeing and then the commitments that we've given to our customers. Absolutely. I'd say in terms of the areas itself, you know, all our five segments, I'd say, outside of Consumer Devices will show strong year-over-year growth, and we'll need to have capital invested for those businesses. We always tend to see a little bit more in reliability just because of the capital intensity of that business.

We'll also be looking to add square footage in areas that we are running out of space, and it tends to be all the places where you see the whole reshoring regionalization trend, whether it's North America or parts of Europe or parts of Southeast Asia. We'll continue to look at adding that. We're also making some strong productivity investments. I talked about how we feel very good about our manufacturing technology excellence, and so continuing to invest in that to really drive the productivity investment so we can see that long-term 5% margin growth, margin percent that we talked about is important. I'd say we'll see a little bit of everywhere is kinda how we're thinking about investing for growth. Paul, you wanna take the-

Paul Lundstrom
CFO, Flex

Yeah. In terms of M&A, you know, we wanna leave the door open to that. You never know when opportunities arise at fair price. I would say on balance, priority for us is more stock buyback right now than M&A.

Ruplu Bhattacharya
Director, Bank of America

Okay. Thanks for all the details, and congrats on the strong execution.

Thanks. Thanks, Ruplu. Appreciate it.

Revathi Advaithi
CEO, Flex

Mm-hmm.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jim Suva with Citigroup. Please ask your question.

Jim Suva
Managing Director, Citigroup

Thank you. My question, as well as the follow-up, are kind of the same question. I'll kinda pose the same question to Revathi and Paul, with just kind of a different angle. That is now that we've had, you know, multiple years of trade wars, shipping costs, COVID outbreaks, component shortages, power outages, all these challenges, I'm wondering first, you know, for Revathi, do you think the just-in-time delivery model needs to be adjusted to permanently build in some buffer? Then kind of the same question to Paul of, is it worth your contracts of instead of just doing a straight cost plus model now, not knowing what the future shipping inbound steel costs, outgoing steel costs are, is it worth building in contracts that are different than in the past with like some type of indexing, or is that just too forward-looking? Thank you.

Revathi Advaithi
CEO, Flex

Okay. Thanks, Jim. I'd say let me start with the just-in-time delivery model. You know, I've spent my entire career in operations supply chain and at many other end markets outside of kind of what Flex is in. What I see with what is happening today, which is such a shift in globalization, moving to the regionalization, reshoring, manufacturing to the point of use is a huge trend, right? Then you combine that with the supply chain congestion that people are learning from, which all the things you talked about, whether it's, you know, trade or pandemic issues, then there's a view of, okay, should I have more buffer inventory to manage for all of that? Is a just-in-time delivery model dead, right?

I would say, Jim, my thesis on all of this, and we'll say time plays out in terms of how all this works, is that we'll land somewhere in the middle. I think customers, all of us including, will be a little bit more reticent to have very lean inventory models, right? That'll be important, particularly when you have products that have long supply chains. On products that are gonna have shorter supply chains because you're gonna reshore them or bring them closer to the point of use, there, the just-in-time models will have some justification to continue. It'll really depend on the product and the end market that you're in, and I'm very sure you're gonna end up with a blended model based on the complexity of the supply chain.

I wouldn't say all dead, but definitely in some cases, if there's long, complex supply chain, everybody's gonna be talking about that more and saying, "Let's build a different model than we had before." We look at that very, very closely in terms of our planning processes and what would provide the best value for us and customers, and how can you get the best level of, you know, delivery performance with kinda all this volatility built in. I would say my view is it's gonna end up somewhere in the middle, and it'll depend on the products, and the complexity of the supply chain. Paul, you want to jump in on the contract?

Paul Lundstrom
CFO, Flex

Yeah, happy to. I'm glad you asked the question, Jim, because it's helpful to maybe demystify this a little bit for investors. If you look at the model, you know, the contracting model in this industry, you know, like you said, it is largely cost plus. When you have episodes of, you know, higher than usual inflation or, you know, macro shocks in the system, a good example would be, you know, big shutdown in Malaysia, you know, in July of last year, June of last year, which basically shut the country down for a month, similar to what we're seeing here in Shanghai. You know, there's various mechanisms in our contracts today and contracts in the future to protect us from those headwinds.

Hard pegged costs, you know, very specific component inflation costs, specific expediting fees, those are fairly easy to contractually just pass right through. You know, it's you know, we unfortunately don't have the benefit of 15% OP margins to absorb all that. We just can't. That's the nature of the industry. Those costs, again, that you can hard peg, get passed back to the customers, and that protects the overall margin dollars for companies like Flex. The softer costs, you know, things that you'd mentioned, you know, COVID, the stops and starts, you know, inefficiency from under absorption, that's a little bit more difficult to hard peg.

You know, we work on ways to mitigate that, and you know, it's, I think so for the most part, we've got really good relationships with our customers and we find ways to work things out. That's kinda how it works. For the most part, you know, those incremental costs do get passed through directly as often as we can. Largely protected. You bring up another interesting point when it comes to inventory. You know, look, is the just-in-time model broken? Is there gonna be, you know, more inventory in the system going forward, particularly as we continue to see trends with things like regionalization? I don't know. That's a, it's a very interesting question because, you know, what we're seeing today with the support that we're getting from our customers in the form of working capital advances.

I think I had mentioned to Matt that, you know, we've got significant year-on-year growth in working capital advances. It's up almost 3x. That's an operating model difference. You know, I think our customers in the past haven't been asked to help share the burden of that inventory growth because I don't think we've been in a situation like this in a very long time. That's a potential shift in the operating model. What I would say is, you know, this is too lean a margin business to bear all of that inventory cost ourselves. You know, if something does happen structurally, you know, we'll need customer support, continued customer support on that. I would say that's no different than anyone else in the industry. Very good question.

Jim Suva
Managing Director, Citigroup

Thank you, Revathi Advaithi and Paul Lundstrom for the detail. That's greatly appreciated and congratulations.

Revathi Advaithi
CEO, Flex

Thank you, Jim.

Operator

Our next question comes from Paul Chung, with JP Morgan. Please ask your question.

Paul Chung
Senior Associate, JP Morgan

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Just wanna echo very nice execution here. First, just wanna talk about the redesign opportunities you mentioned, kinda driven by some of the legacy component constraints. Are you seeing opportunities where you can kinda capture higher margins here on key products doing, you know, expanding some of that design work? You know, is this dynamic kind of expanding across all your products, or are you seeing this more so in health solutions?

Revathi Advaithi
CEO, Flex

Yeah, Paul, I'll answer that. I'd say first is the redesign opportunity is across the board. I see that in Lifestyle, I see that in Health, I see that in Automotive, I see that in Industrial. The reason is because as our customers are understanding the kind of the platform effects of how their chip design is, the significance of that, they're really relying on Flex to provide them a new solution that longer term will provide them better resilience than where they are today, right? I would say the redesign opportunity for us is across the board, and we are being asked to do that every day, or we are providing that to customers all the time. I'm seeing that in small, medium-sized customers in Lifestyle or very large kind of Health solutions customers.

Everybody is asking about, "Hey, how do I do this differently, and how can you do this for me?" I'd say this is really good work because this is the kind of complexity that I talked about that now customers are relying on us to solve for them. It is, of course, you know, our job to make sure that these redesigns also work in a way that it's a win-win for our customers and for us, and longer term, it's better margin for all of us. Paul, I'd say this is definitely happening and happening across the board.

Paul Chung
Senior Associate, JP Morgan

Great. My follow-up on Consumer Devices, you know, where are customers going if they don't make, you know, the cut on your kind of profitability hurdles? You know, are you seeing some customers actually come back after shopping around? You know, is this in turn kind of improving the overall pricing environment in your view for the overall industry? Thank you.

Revathi Advaithi
CEO, Flex

Yes. Thanks, Paul. What I'd say is, I think in general, I would say, you know, the overall EMS industry has become disciplined, right? Let me start with that. I would say in my last three years, across the board, we have seen discipline emerge in this industry, in terms of, you know, how we look at projects or how we execute, so I think that you're seeing general discipline, and you're seeing that in the margin rates of the industry itself, right? Everybody has started improving in the last few years in terms of margin rates. I'd say for consumer devices itself, you know, there's enough people, and I'm not gonna name names of people who would, where these hurdle rates would be fine for them, right?

They are the ones who will win and take that business. It works for their business model where they have a different cost of capital, or they're fine with working with those margin rates. In some cases, we do have customers who come back to us, and you know, we work with the parameters that we have laid out and what Flex offers as a solution. That's a win-win for both of us, right? Because they saw something in Flex that works for them. You have seen in the last few years, we've become really good at managing the consumer device business to within the parameters of what we want to see. That's why overall margins improve for that business.

You know, it is contained in terms of the type of growth. The mix within that consumer device business is changing. We like the more mid-size customers for that. So I'd say, yeah, there's always people to take the business that we may not want. In some cases, customers come back, and we welcome that because that's a win-win for both of us.

Paul Chung
Senior Associate, JP Morgan

Okay, great. Thank you.

Paul Lundstrom
CFO, Flex

Thanks, Paul.

Operator

Our last question comes from the line of Melissa Fairbanks with Raymond James. You may ask your question.

Melissa Dailey Fairbanks
Equity Research Analyst, Raymond James

Hi, everyone. Thanks very much. Glad to make it in under the wire. I think you referenced some of the inefficiencies related to China shutdowns, you know, that have happened most recently. Just wondering if you could quantify the headwind this quarter or what's baked into the Q1 outlook, if anything?

Revathi Advaithi
CEO, Flex

Yeah, Melissa, I'll start. Paul can jump in. One is, I'd say I'm not sure I want to quantify like on a case-by-case basis, but we expect some of these inefficiencies to continue at least for the next quarter. You have seen that China is definitely not freed up. Particularly where this kind of impacts us in areas like our industrial business, which has got a lot of kinda lower volume, higher mix, right? So managing that mix with the shortages becomes really, really tough, and they have a lot of supply chain dependency on China in particular. I'd say we kinda expect these inefficiencies to continue through next quarter because China is not easing up anytime soon. You know, that's why we have a diverse portfolio.

We have a diverse portfolio, and you've seen it's played out well for us over the last few years, right? One segment, one business unit is down, the other is up. We are able to manage the mix through all of that. At the end of the day, right, highest EPS year that we've ever had, highest EPS quarter. Our guide for Q1 is still very strong. Full year, we have a very strong EPS guide. I'd say you'll see some, you know, pluses and minuses in inefficiencies, some more in the near term, but we expect that we're very good at managing them. We'll, you know, we'll see that margin rate continue to move up through the year.

Melissa Dailey Fairbanks
Equity Research Analyst, Raymond James

I'd say so. Very excellent execution in the face of all of these challenges. Then if I could, just one quick follow-up. The detail that you gave us for Nextracker is extremely helpful. It's obviously a question that we get asked about quite a bit. Just wondering if, you know, as that business starts to gain scale, does it become lumpier in nature as, you know, you get to larger scale deployments? Or for the near term, should we just kind of assume just kind of the steady state growth rate?

Paul Lundstrom
CFO, Flex

Yeah. I think steady state is more likely, Melissa. You know, Nextracker is a project business. As you see the scale of that business continue to grow, I think you get a bit of a portfolio effect. You know, yes, there will be large projects that ramp up and ramp down. You know, one, the nature of the accounting, which is percentage of completion accounting, sort of helps to smooth that a little bit. Also, again, back to portfolio theory, you know, I think you get such a large base that it becomes a little bit more immune to, you know, project-specific stops and starts.

Revathi Advaithi
CEO, Flex

Yeah, it's such a.

Paul Lundstrom
CFO, Flex

Or-

Revathi Advaithi
CEO, Flex

It's got so much backlog and so much growth in it, Melissa, that at this point, we're just expecting that growth to be more steady state. We think that just as you clear that pipeline and backlog, which is there for the next few years, it'll be steady state as we go through that.

Melissa Dailey Fairbanks
Equity Research Analyst, Raymond James

Perfect. Thanks very much. That's all for me tonight.

Paul Lundstrom
CFO, Flex

Thanks, Melissa.

Revathi Advaithi
CEO, Flex

Okay, great. Hey, thank you, everyone. I just wanna close by saying on behalf of my leadership team, wanna thank all our customers for your trust and partnership and our shareholders, of course, for your support. Most importantly, the Flex team for all their hard work and their achievements for this past fiscal year. Thank you, everyone, for joining us.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

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