Thank you all for joining us at short notice today. I'm Peter Jackson, the CEO of Flutter, and joining me this afternoon is Jonathan, our group CFO. I'm delighted to be in a position to announce today that we've reached a deal with Fastball, the 37.2% shareholding in FanDuel to accelerate our buyout of their stake in the business. You will hopefully have seen the transaction presentation that we published on our investor relations website this afternoon. I'm going to spend the next few minutes just going through the first few slides of that presentation, which cover the headline details of the proposed transaction, our rationale for the accelerated buyout, and why we believe this is an excellent deal for Flutter shareholders. If we have time thereafter, we'll open the line up for some brief Q&A.
As you'll appreciate, it's quite a busy day for us, so we only have 30 minutes this afternoon. If we don't get to everyone's questions, our IR team will be on hand to answer any follow-up questions you may have. Let me start on slide four of the presentation and the key terms of the transaction. We've agreed to acquire Fastball's entire 37.2% holding in FanDuel Group for $4.175 billion, increasing Flutter's stake in FanDuel to 95%. Boyd, our market access partner, will continue to hold its 5% stake. Fastball will receive approximately $2.1 billion in cash, with the remainder received in Flutter shares. The Flutter shares will have lockup restrictions in place that unwind over three, six, and 12 months respectively.
The cash element of the transaction will be funded through a combination of Flutter debt and the proceeds of a placing that we have launched today, which will see us raise approximately GBP 1.1 billion. I'm told that the placing book is well covered at this point in time. The transaction is expected to complete later this month, subject to Flutter shareholder approval, given that this constitutes a related party transaction. We intend to offer our media partner, FOX, the option to purchase 18.5% of FanDuel at fair market value in July 2021, with substantially the same terms and valuation mechanism that the parties previously agreed would apply to the Fastball put call options. No assurances can be provided whether and on what terms any such transaction with FOX would take place.
As part of today's deal, Fastball is waiving its existing rights in relation to its future economic interests in FOX Bet. Turning to slide five and why we've decided to do this deal now. FanDuel is, by some distance, the market leader in what we consider to be the most exciting market opportunity in the global gaming sector today. By doing this deal now, we are increasing our exposure to that market at a time when the regulation of sports betting and online gaming is accelerating. The stake is being acquired at a significant discount to our own estimate of the intrinsic value of the business and at a 45% discount to the enterprise value of FanDuel's closest listed peer. Fastball were keen to avoid a situation where they could be left holding a material minority stake in an illiquid asset for an indefinite period.
This could have occurred under the mechanisms previously agreed. They were willing to trade at a discount to avoid that eventuality. In addition to the deal being struck at a compelling valuation, this early buyout also reduces the complexity of our U.S. business and gives us additional flexibility in how we manage the business going forward. Finally, by agreeing this transaction now, we've removed uncertainty for our shareholders and any concerns they may have had about our future buyout obligations. On slide six, we try to put the size of the U.S. opportunity into context for Flutter. Based on our current projections, we expect our online sportsbook to be available in 14 states and our online gaming products to be in four states by the end of 2021. This will mean they're available to 33% and 11% of the U.S. population respectively.
When those states alone reach maturity, we estimate that they will be worth over $9 billion in GGR. To put that into context for you, that is roughly the same size as the online markets of the U.K., Ireland, and Australia combined. In the U.K., Ireland, and Australia, we expect to generate over $1 billion in EBITDA in 2020, with a similar market share to that enjoyed by our U.S. business today. Ultimately, we believe many more states will move to regulate sports betting and gaming. We estimate that for each additional 5% of the population that has access to sports betting, we think it would add circa $850 million to the TAM, while every 5% in the gaming side would add approximately $1.3 billion to TAM.
That would imply that the U.S. market can ultimately be a multiple of our core markets in the future and a source of significant earnings for the group. In conclusion, our business today is the market leader in the U.S., with a material market share gap between it and its nearest competitor. FanDuel is of a scale that is unrivaled in the U.S. online market. Furthermore, with all that Flutter brings to FanDuel, we believe it to be the highest quality asset in the U.S. sector today. By acquiring the stake now and at the discount we've secured, we believe we have removed uncertainty for our shareholders and ideally positioned our group for the future opportunities that the U.S. market will bring. We are delighted to have delivered a transaction that we strongly believe to be in the best interest of our shareholders.
With that, I'll hand it over for questions to Nige.
Thank you. If you do have a question at this point, please key star then one on your telephone keypad. If the question has already been asked or you wish to withdraw, it's simply star two. Please just press star one now to ask your question. The first question then is from Michael Mitchell from Davy. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good afternoon, Peter. Good afternoon, Jonathan. Congratulations on the deal, first of all. Just one question, if I can, in the interest of your time. If I could ask around FOX. Clearly, they're participating in the placing as per the quote. They seem very supportive of what you've announced today. I guess the question is, I just wonder what it means for the future relationship between Flutter and FOX, and how the deal might provide some greater flexibility with respect to your U.S. operations going forward. Thank you.
Thank you, Michael. Look, FOX are obviously very important partners for us in the U.S. market. In fact, the first person I rang to bring over the wall and talk to about this deal was Lachlan Murdoch, to tell him. We're delighted that FOX are participating in our placing and very much appreciate their ongoing support. I think they see how this deal simplifies our overall operation in the U.S., which should provide us with additional flexibility in how we structure the business going forward. We look forward to talking to them more about how we might be able to optimize our operations to leverage the fantastic reach that FOX has. We needed to do one thing at once, and we've done this deal now, and now we can continue to build on our great asset with FOX in America.
Great. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question then is from Jinesh Baker from MG Investments. Please go ahead.
Hi, Peter, Jonathan. Thank you very much for the presentation, and congratulations on the deal. I just wanted to clarify, in terms of the financing for the transaction, I have obviously seen the share placement, and you'll be using some cash on balance sheet. Did I overhear you say there'll also be some debt issuance? Can you just clarify if there'll be any further debt issuance for this transaction?
No, there'll be none. It's using cash on balance sheet plus the equity for the cash component solely.
Okay. Thank you very much for the clarification.
Thank you. The next question is from Monique Pollard from Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi. Afternoon, everyone, and congrats on the deal again. I had one question just on the FOX Bet's 18.5% stake in FanDuel that they have that right to acquire in July 2021. Just wanted to understand the process for coming to a fair value for the 18.5% at that time. Will it be sort of external banks giving valuations to both of you and you coming to a conclusion?
Sure. The FMV exercise obviously was set up in the Fastball agreement, and we each appoint one bank. Each of them comes up with a value. If that's within 15%, we take the average of the two. If they're more than 15% across, we then jointly appoint a third bank, and it would then become the average of the closest two. It sort of is quite a standard process to make sure we don't have outlier valuations coming into the process.
Understood. This valuation that you've achieved for the 37.2% really has no bearing on what the 18.5% might be valued at in July next year.
Exactly.
Yeah. Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Just before we move to the next question, please may I ask that you just keep your questions to one per person due to time constraints. The next person is James Rowland Clark from Barclays. Please ask your question.
Hi. Good afternoon. Congratulations on the placing of the deal. Just obviously one question. Now that you've got more equity value of Flutter PLC tied up in the U.S. opportunity, how do you feel about investing in the U.S. opportunity? Does this change your approach at all? Clearly, the market looks at market share very closely. Are you looking to maybe up the market share gains or stick to your current more sensible investment approach?
James, we've always controlled the FanDuel business since we acquired it with our management team, with our technology. I think we've been pretty aggressive in the market since we started, when you think about what we originally did out in New Jersey and what we've just done more recently in Tennessee when we launched there on the 1st of November. We're determined to have a business of real scale. We are applying discipline around what we're doing in the market, and we're not going to change that posture. We're very ambitious. We want to build the leading business in the U.S. market, and this transaction is not going to change that. We were previously going to be funding all of FanDuel anyway. This just consolidates our ownership of it and removes some of the complexity that there was around the structure in the business.
Of course, allows us to buy at a material discount.
Great. Thank you.
Thank you. Just a reminder, if you do have a question, just simply key star then one on your telephone keypad now. The next question is from Joseph Stauff from Susquehanna. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning. I wanted to ask you just about FOX Bet. I understand all the transaction questions, but I wanted to understand your approach for the FOX Bet strategy in the U.S. OSB, online sports, doesn't seem to be catching other than iGaming. I was wondering if you can comment on that.
We're very pleased with the way that we've been able to build out our Super 6 franchise over the course of this football season. When I look at the millions of customers we've attracted through a combination of FOX Sports, FOX News, and FOX Entertainment, I think we've done a great job with integrations, and we're really pleased with the way that the whole FOX family has got behind that. We're very pleased with the progress we're making. Clearly, the FOX Bet product from a sports betting perspective is not as good as we would like it to be, and that does have an impact when you're putting customers down into the funnel. That's something that we will make sure we can address over time.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question then is from Ed Young from MS. Please go ahead.
Hello, thanks for taking my question. It was actually something tucked away on slide seven. You've mentioned that New Jersey is now expected to have a 2020 contribution of + $40 million. Could you just talk a little bit more color around the shape of how that might look going forward? Are there any other states that are going to get to contribution or near breakeven at this point? Obviously, New Jersey was the first to have the longstanding gaming business. I understand that, but just any more color around that would be very useful. Thank you.
Sure. Just dealing with that point, we were trying to demonstrate a couple of points here. Obviously, New Jersey was the first out of the traps in Q3, early Q4 2018. It's the first of the states where we've actually got a third football season happening, and we've continually talked to you guys, the investors, and everybody about the shape of the J-curve. What we were trying to do is give people a sort of proof point that actually what we thought was going to happen is happening. Actually, the $40 million is in New Jersey, in a state where we've also spent more marketing than we thought we were going to because the state is still growing faster than we thought it was going to be.
Actually, we're exiting into 2021 with an even bigger business than we would have thought at the start of the year. That's after probably some extra marketing spend. Look, all I can say on the other states is we're now in some states where we're sort of hitting the third NFL season, and we will find a way to be able to communicate how those sort of maturing states are performing versus new states and new state investments as we go forward. I think that the purpose of this wasn't to try and help you extrapolate. It was to try and help people understand that actually, when we get through this J-curve point, we get to a contribution positive point, and we were hoping that that would be seen as a sort of a clear demonstration of what we expected to happen. Yeah.
Ed, I just build on it. For me, the other point as well is, I think it illustrates that for some of the cynics out there wondering whether people are going to make money in the U.S. market, we want to be able to demonstrate to them that you can. Certainly that we can with the model that we're using. I think it also just reiterates the importance of scale. As Jonathan described, this is the contribution. The extent to which you can really leverage the risk and trading capabilities, tech and operations below that, clearly you get a sort of compounding effect the more states you're in.
Okay. Thanks, both.
Cheers, Ed.
Bye.
Thank you. The next question is from Gavin Kelleher from Goodbody. Please go ahead.
Hi, afternoon, guys. Just to follow up on Ed's question. Sorry. First of all, congratulations on the deal. Just following up from Ed's question on the positive contribution in New Jersey. I know it's very early days, but obviously New Jersey benefits from the iGaming cross-sell, and the iGaming business in general in New Jersey. Can you give us any sort of sense on how the contribution could differ between, let's say, dual product states like New Jersey, and single product sportsbook states elsewhere? I know it's very early days, but how different do you think that contribution could be at maturity?
Hi, Gavin. Look, apologies I couldn't make the fireside chat I had scheduled with you at two o'clock. I didn't realize we'd have to do it sort of live in front of all these other people.
No problem.
I hope everyone now realizes why I had to let you down. Look, clearly, the iGaming cross-sell is important in New Jersey. We've been achieving higher levels of cross-sell than we would have anticipated when we look at our businesses in Europe, and think about the way in which we've been able to successfully cross-sell iGaming to those franchises. We're really pleased with the way that that business in New Jersey is working for us. I think in states where iGaming isn't available, we'll have to make sure that we sort of construct products and stuff that really play to what customers are looking after. If I take something like our Same-Game Parlay product, we're one of the few operators that have that available in the market. More than half our actives are using that product now in the States.
I think that's a real sort of gamification product to sports betting, I think that you'll see us pushing those products hard in states where iGaming isn't allowed. We also hope, I think, that we'll see more states choosing to legislate and allow iGaming as a way of driving additional revenues over the coming months and years. At the end of the day, Gavin, the CAC LTV equation's still got to work, whether you've got cross-sell into iGaming or whether you've only got sports betting. You're still looking for the same returns. It's just the customer lifetime value may be on average lower in those states without it, and therefore you'd expect the CPAs to be commensurately lower as well.