Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us and welcome to Flutter Entertainment Q1 2026 earnings call. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. I will now hand the conference over to Paul Tymms, Group Director of Investor Relations. Paul, please go ahead.
Hi, everyone, welcome to Flutter's Q1 update call. With me today are Flutter's CEO, Peter Jackson, and CFO, Rob Coldrake. After this short intro, Peter will open with a summary of our operational progress, Rob will go through our Q1 financials and our updated guidance for 2026. We will open the lines for Q&A. Some of the information we are providing today, including our 2026 guidance, constitutes forward-looking statements that involve risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual outcomes or results to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. These factors are detailed in our earnings press release and our SEC filings. In addition, all forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement except as required by law. Also, in our remarks or responses to questions, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures.
Reconciliations are included in the results materials we have released today, available in the Investors section of our website. I will now hand you over to Peter.
Thank you, Paul. I'm pleased to share our Q1 results and update you on the progress made against the key strategic objectives we outlined in February. First, I wanted to address the management changes we've announced today. Amy Howe will be leaving the business. I'd like to thank Amy for her contribution to Flutter and FanDuel and recognize the impact she's had on the business since joining in 2021. We wish her every success for the future. Looking forward, the U.S. market and FanDuel's number 1 position within it represents one of the most significant growth opportunities in our industry, and it is essential that we have the right structure and leadership in place to fully capitalize on it. Dan Taylor's track record of driving growth and executing on complex strategies make him ideally suited for his expanded role.
Christian Genetski has proved to be an exceptional leader, has been instrumental in scaling the FanDuel business to market leadership. These changes will sharpen our focus on the U.S. sportsbook, strengthen the connection between our U.S. and international divisions, and fully leverage the group's expertise, capital, and strategic ambition. I'm confident this gives us the right structure for long-term success and strengthens our ability to deliver sustained long-term growth. Now turning to the results in the quarter. In the U.S., we saw encouraging signs in underlying growth in Q1. Overall AMPS were 1% behind last year and revenue grew 6%, with headline KPIs improving as the quarter progressed. As outlined in February, overall sportsbook performance was adversely impacted by NFL trends observed in Q4 by persistently high gross revenue margins negatively impacted customer activity, leaving us with a smaller player base as we enter 2026.
We outlined our sportsbook and generosity improvement plans to maintain our leadership position in these areas, and we're now executing against them. From a generosity perspective, we are focused on delivering a truly customer-first proposition. Examples include the launch of early win promotions during March Madness and opportunistic pairs to capture the social side of betting which aided engagement. Mets fans will know what I mean. In April, we began rolling out our sportsbook loyalty program, which has had a very positive response from the initial cohort of customers to gain access to the program. We also launched BetProtect+, an industry-first generosity mechanic allowing customers to insure their bets for the full game for a small fee. The initial response has been excellent, with adoption rates double our expectations and continuing to grow.
From a sportsbook perspective, product enhancements in the quarter include the expansion of our popular Pass the Leg feature to Super Bowl, more personalized and simplified NBA same game parlay building with Bettors Again and full-screen streaming for key sports. These changes are gaining traction with our customers. Underlying trends across our headline KPIs have been positive with AMPS, handle, and structural revenue margin all improving through the quarter. Looking ahead, we have a strong pipeline of improvements planned, and we expect these positive trends to continue into Q2. This includes significant expansion of our new loyalty program through Q2 and Q3 ahead of a full rollout for the NFL 2026/2027 season and new soccer product features ahead of the World Cup. In iGaming, FanDuel delivered another strong quarter of growth, sorry, with AMPS up 10%.
Expansion of our direct casino player base, coupled with improved frequency among higher value CAC, drove revenue growth of 19% year-over-year. This was driven by enhanced rewards delivered through our loyalty program, including daily reward boxes and the continued rollout of new and exclusive content. At the start of April, we migrated PokerStars customers to the FanDuel platform, unlocking improved products and cross-state liquidity for poker customers. Turning now to prediction markets. First, we continue to see limited cannibalization impacts on prediction market operators and our sportsbook growth. We believe this is attributable to the fundamental differences in product propositions between sportsbook and prediction market platforms, customer age profiles, and concentration of prediction market activity amongst entertainment first and low-value users. However, we continue to monitor the impacts of prediction market operators in the broader sports betting ecosystem.
Second, in terms of the opportunity, we continue to view prediction markets as an attractive incremental customer acquisition opportunity ahead of sports betting regulation in new states. The fast-moving and complex regulatory environment has at times made product delivery timescales challenging. We are prioritizing new product rollouts and focused on building the operational flexibility required to deliver our ambitions. In March and April, we widened our range of sports markets and early testing of our generosity capabilities, saw encouraging returns with strong app downloads through March Madness. We launched the FanDuel One app at the start of April, dynamically serving customers sports betting in sportsbook states or prediction markets in non-sportsbook states. This now allows us to leverage FanDuel's strong nationwide brand awareness, where just one app delivers access to an increasingly compelling sports experience.
While Q1 revenues were modest, reflecting the early stage of the journey, we are focused on delivering the improvements needed during 2026 to serve customers an exciting sports bet experience by Q4. The 2026-2027 NFL season launch will be a major milestone, with further improvements planned for the FIFA World Cup. We believe our world-class proprietary pricing capabilities can also unlock significant market-making opportunity. We began market-making services on a major third-party prediction market platform in April. Early indicators have been encouraging, we expect to launch the initial phase of our market-making platform in the coming months. Turning to our international segment. Our performance in Italy has been extremely strong. We are the clear number 1 operator online, outgrowing the market and our main competitors.
This performance is even more remarkable given the drag from our SNAI business, which while in growth during the quarter, had yet to benefit from the migration onto the SEA platform, which successfully completed at the end of April, transitioning around 2 million accounts. Sisal's market-first My Combo product saw excellent engagement, with multi-leg bets contributing half of pre-match soccer handle, with over 30% of bets carrying 5 or more legs. This drove a significant step up in parlay penetration and structural margin. In iGaming, Sisal benefited from the continued rollout of exclusive content. I'm very excited about the outlook for the rest of the year in Italy with Sisal's ongoing exceptional performance and the unlocking of Sisal's market-leading product for SNAI following the platform migration.
In the U.K.I., strong double-digit iGaming revenue growth was delivered across Paddy Power, Tombola, and Betfair, driven by new slots content and robust retention. Although Sky Bet's performance has been behind our expectations as customers adapted to the new user interface post-migration, momentum has improved with its highest customer acquisition volumes in five years in January and underlying sportsbook revenue returning to growth in March. Market competitiveness remains stable ahead of the U.K. iGaming tax increase to 40% on the first of April. We now expect less profitable operators to begin adjusting marketing and generosity strategies. As a leading U.K. operator, Flutter is well-placed to deliver material first-order mitigation as previously outlined and to benefit from second-order market share gains over time. In Brazil, performance remained encouraging, with Betnacional AMPS over 40% higher year-over-year.
We will soon integrate our proprietary pricing capabilities, unlocking a best-in-class parlay product and promotional improvements ahead of the FIFA World Cup in June. In APAC, we saw modest year-over-year growth in sportsbook AMPS and handle. Racing, excluding Greyhounds, while still declining year-over-year, was ahead of our expectations. We also welcome the advertising restrictions announced in April and believe Sportsbet is well-placed to build on its market-leading position. Overall, I'm pleased with how we've executed on our priorities across the group, and particularly in the U.S., where we've made significant progress embedding the improvements discussed at Q4. FanDuel Predicts is building momentum, and I'm excited about our market-making opportunity. Internationally, our SNAI and NSX integration is progressing well, and we are investing with conviction in Brazil.
We now have the right organizational structure in place to deliver against our strategic priorities, giving me confidence in the outlook for the year and our ability to deliver sustainable shareholder long-term value. Finally, I wanted to note our plans to review our London Stock Exchange listing as we consider streamlining the dual listing. We expect this review to conclude during Q2. We'll update on our findings at that time. I'll now hand you over to Robert.
Thanks, Peter, and good afternoon, everyone. Group delivered 17% revenue growth in Q1 2026, with adjusted EBITDA up 2%. This reflected contributions from our SNAI and Betnacional acquisitions and a positive year-over-year swing in sports results. Performance included 10% sportsbook revenue growth with excellent underlying momentum in SEA and the U.S. showing encouraging signs of improvement as Peter outlined. We also delivered continued strong iGaming performance across the U.S., SEA, and UKI, with total iGaming revenue growth of 28%. Net income of $209 million declined $126 million year-over-year, driven by $71 million increase in interest expense and a $122 million increase in depreciation and amortization. These were partially offset by an $88 million non-cash year-over-year benefit from the Fox option fair value adjustment.
Earnings per share and adjusted earnings per share declined to $1.23 and $1.22 respectively, reflecting the factors mentioned above and a $61 million year-over-year non-controlling interest benefit as we lapped the prior period. This included an expense reflecting Boyd's 5% ownership of FanDuel. Net cash provided by operating activities increased by $142 million or 76% year-over-year, primarily driven by positive year-over-year swinging player funds of $153 million from an outflow in the prior year related to a Sisal lottery payout to an inflow in the current quarter. This more than offset higher tax interest payments and a super PAC contribution in the period to support our U.S. advocacy initiatives. Capital expenditure was higher year-over-year due to lower prior year phasing in the quarter.
As a result, free cash flow, including financing CapEx and excluding player funds, declined by 46%. There is no change to our full year 2026 capital expenditure guidance. Our disciplined capital allocation policy provides the flexibility to respond effectively to evolving market conditions and emerging opportunities. We continue to prioritize organic investment in our core business and strategic investment, including emerging opportunities such as prediction markets, which we continue to view as an optionality-driven investment within a defined cost envelope. While deleveraging is now a priority, buybacks also remain an important part of our capital allocation policy. At our Q4 earnings in February, we communicated our plan to return $250 billion to shareholders commencing in H1. This tranche began in Q1 and remains ongoing. As of May 1, $190 million has been returned to shareholders.
Consistent with our flexible approach, we will continue to evaluate the buyback program as we progress through the year. From a leverage perspective, we ended Q1 with a leverage of 3.7 times. We expect leverage to decrease by the end of 2026, initially increasing through Q2 and Q3, reflecting the profitability profile of the business before reducing in Q4 and moving us towards our target ratio of 2 to 2.5 times over the medium term. We also continue to drive efficiencies across the business and have already embedded significant cost savings through our ongoing cost transformation programs. In international, we are on track to deliver the full $300 million run rate from our cost efficiency program by the year-end, with most major milestones already achieved.
We are now actively defining the next phase of cost transformation into 2027 and beyond with a clear emphasis on sustained cost discipline and operating leverage. In the U.S., we are equally focused on cost efficiency, with 2026 savings realized across initiatives including payment provider efficiencies, improved supplier rates, and overall process optimization. This includes the closure of our FanDuel TV racing network and FanDuel Picks product in 2026 in order to optimize costs and ensure investment is directed towards the highest return areas. Moving to our 2026 outlook, we are pleased with the trading momentum in April. Our full-year guidance is unchanged on an underlying basis, adjusting only for unfavorable Q1 sports results in the U.S. and international and launch costs in Arkansas not previously included.
Guidance also reflects the internal transfer of management of our PokerStars North America business from our international business to the U.S. Group revenue is now expected to be $18.3 billion at midpoint, with adjusted EBITDA of $2.865 billion for the year, representing 12% and 1% year-over-year growth respectively. Additional detail on guidance is available in today's release. To reiterate Peter's comments, I'm encouraged by the positive operational signals we are seeing which give me conviction in our full-year outlook. Peter and I are now happy to take your questions. I'll hand back to Samantha to manage the call.
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Please limit yourself to 2 questions. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Jordan Bender with Citizens. Jordan, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi, everyone. Good afternoon, and thanks for the question. I do want to start, I guess, the management changes over the last couple of months but including today. From, you know, from our perspective and, you know, just some of the questions we're getting, like, how should we be viewing kind of these changes in real time? Is this an effort to kind of get back to where we were maybe to start the NFL season with Christian and Dan? Or is this
Kind of a change in strategy on what you're trying to do, including maybe like willingness to spend on generosities. Then the second question, Robert, Peter, you know, 2Q EBITDA, about $104 million by my math. Can you maybe just help us with some of the inputs too? You know, you have a lot of moving pieces in the quarter, just kinda how we get to that number. Thank you.
Hi, Jordan. Afternoon. Look, I'll take the first question. I think Rob will probably pick up the Q2 EBITDA one. In terms of the management changes, now is the right time for us to put in place new leadership in the business. You know, I'm excited to see what Christian and Dan can do. Look, you know, we're getting onto the front foot as a business. The sportsbook improvement plan is working. We're starting to see some of those sequential benefits of it, you know, in the quarter. Look, I'm excited to see what we can do with our loyalty program as its app launches and rolls out through the course of the year. You know, I think we've been trading the business harder.
You know, I mentioned the stuff we've been doing with the New York Mets and, you know, some other things I think the team have been doing to get on the front foot, which is working. I'm pleased with the progress we're making with Bet Protect. Look, there's no change in our strategy or posture of the business.
Just picking up on your Q2 question, Jordan, in terms of where we are. There's no change in our expectations for Q2 from where we were previously. Actually, if you look at our trading at the moment, we're trading in line with our expectations. We've actually seen some slightly favorable sports results in recent weeks. I think, if you look at consensus, there's potentially some adjustments that need to be made to the phasing within that, where it's slightly too high in Q2 and too low later in the year. The main things to consider in the year-on-year bridge when thinking about Q2 would be the prior year included about $70 million from sports results.
We've also got some prediction market spend in the forecast for this year in Q2, which we expect to ramp up slightly from Q1. We've got some marketing around the World Cup, which will kick off in Q2, and that's in addition to the new states investment that we'll continue to lay down around Missouri and Arkansas. Just from an underlying perspective, clearly, as we've seen in Q1, we've got a slightly lower player base that we started the year off with, and that flows through from an underlying perspective. Ultimately, no change in Q2 from our previous expectations.
Thank you very much.
Your next question comes from the line of Barry Jonas with Truist. Barry, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Great. Thank you. Hey, guys. The prediction legal environment remains pretty active, I'd say. Curious to hear your expectations for how you think this plays out in the courts. Does that weigh into how you think about your investment spend going into next year and beyond? Thank you.
Barry, well, you're certainly right that there's a lot of noise around, you know, the legal positions concerning prediction markets. I think it's important that we remember, you know, a few things. I mean, first of all, I think, you know, the team have made good progress recently. I think, you know, launching the market-making capabilities, you know, the FanDuel One app which allows consumers wherever they are across America to access, you know, sports on FanDuel, I think is important progress. I think we demonstrated the strength of our brand with some of the, you know, the stuff we did around March Madness. You know, I'm excited about the incremental opportunity this presents for us.
Look, until we get, you know, through and understand ultimately what the Supreme Court say, I think we're gonna live with this uncertainty. You know, I think in the meantime, we're gonna continue to invest in the market-making. I think we're really pleased with the early indications we're seeing from that. I think it's a good opportunity for us to monetize this business. From the sort of core predictions product, look, you know, ultimately we want to acquire, you know, as many sports customers as we can ultimately onto our, you know, regulated OSB products, and that's what our real focus is. Our intention is to build a great sports experience for customers wherever they are in America, and that's what we're gonna do with the one app.
Got it. Just for a follow-up. You know, I think a lot's happened since your 2024 Analyst Day, and street numbers have certainly adjusted. I'm curious to get your thoughts at a high level if, you know, how you think about the path and timing about ultimately hitting those original targets. Thank you.
Yeah. Let me pick that 1 up, Barry. You know, ultimately, we still see a very compelling pathway to growth in the short to medium term. Obviously, from the targets that we set out at the Capital Markets Day in 2024, it's right to assume that things have moved out to the right slightly given some of the underlying changes in the business since that time. If you think about some of the key structural foundations that we set out at the investor day, we retain confidence on those. We retain confidence in our ability to be able to increase structural margin. We continue to see higher penetration. We continue to see a move into new states in terms of regulated OSB.
We said that would be 2% a year, we've broadly seen that since. We said one new iGaming state in the next 3 years. We're actually seeing some encouraging conversations and hopefully the mood music moving in the right direction there. You know, we're still feeling very confident about the longer term plans. We need to trade through the next couple of quarters and see where we're exiting 2026, we'll be able to give a bit more color at that point in time.
Perfect. Thank you.
Your next question comes from Jed Kelly with Oppenheimer. Jed, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hey, great. Thanks for taking my question. Just going back to the market making and as you're able to integrate that into your product, can you talk about does that just give you the ability to merchandise that product better, either through customer credits or other things you can do to drive engagement? Can you just talk about the importance of putting market making behind that?
Jed, you're right, you know, that market making is a exciting opportunity, and I think it's a great way that we can showcase the quality of our, you know, pricing capabilities, you know, that we have in the business more generally. So, you know, when we think about the opportunities principally around the Combos, and, you know, we're gonna be market making in as many, you know, on as many platforms as we can. I think it's a good opportunity for us to, you know, monetize our pricing expertise in doing so. I think the point you're raising is the extent to which, you know, if we're doing it on our own platform, it may allow us to, you know, change the dynamics from a customer perspective.
I think there are some interesting possibilities to that we're, you know, of course, we're considering.
Got it. Then just as a follow-up, just philosophically in the U.S., how do you guys kind of toggle, you know, maximizing for net win margin versus trying to drive maybe more players? Do you ever think about toggling down the net win margins maybe to get more players and maybe the net win margins in the U.S. for whatever reason might not be as high as other countries? Thanks.
The biggest driver of our net win margin is really the bet mix and the extent to which, you know, customers are, you know, building their Same Game Parlay products. Look, this is something that, you know, people want to do and, you know, that's, you know, we're simply, you know, meeting that customer need. You then have to, you know, look at the relationship of course between, you know, the, you know, structural gross win margins of generosity, and you've gotta get the balance right between them. As we know, if you, if you don't get the balance right, you can, you know, see customers quickly, become dissatisfied and not have that, you know, that good experience.
You know, we've got lots of experience of that around the world and, you know, I think we're well-placed here in the States, to deliver, you know, great experiences for our customers.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from Trey Bowers with Wells Fargo. Trey, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hey, guys. Thanks for the question. I just wanted to revert back to kind of the cadence in the U.S. You know, as I just run the math on the second half loading, it looks like Q2, the expectation is slightly down revenue and, you know, EBITDA down 75% year-over-year, but then the back half is 25% revenue growth and 100% EBITDA growth year-over-year. If you guys could just kinda dig in a little bit on another layer of kind of expectations, I don't know, around promotional activity or just some of the signposts we should look to that should help give confidence that that back half loading is, you know, doable at this point.
Yeah. Let me pick that up, Trey. First of all, I'd say that, you know, we set this out with our initial guidance with Q4 a couple of months ago, we said we anticipated sequential improvement as we moved through the year on the top line, that's something that we're starting to see already. I think the best way to look at this simplistically is to view the year in two halves in H1, broadly a continuation of the trends that we're seeing. As we said, we exited 2025 with a slightly smaller customer base, we're seeing handles slightly down year-on-year with some improvement in Q2 versus Q1. We've also had some slight amends to structural margin, impacted by the sports mix.
With the new launches in Arkansas that we talked about previously and also with Alberta in July and the World Cup, we'll also see a slightly higher generosity in the first half. For the year overall, we're anticipating a broadly similar generosity envelope. Into the second half of the year, we do lap a week of prior year NFL performance, and we are expecting handle and structural revenue margin to move to some modest growth year-on-year. We also expect to get some significant efficiency in our generosity as we lap the launch of Missouri last year, and we also get the benefits from the loyalty program that we've launched that we're already starting to see some green shoots from. You know, to put it all together, we feel very comfortable.
I think, you know, as I said in the answer to the previous question, we've not moved from where we previously were. Actually, we always said that we'd have some sequential improvement as we move through the year, and we're starting to see that at the start of Q2. We're quite comfortable with our position.
Just as a follow-up on the prediction market side, given you're up in the investment a little bit for the year, as we exit this year, what would you guys view as a success in terms of kind of user levels in the non-licensed states to prove out that the investment's playing out like you would like? Thanks.
Trey, you know, we're not sort of upping the level of investment. I think what I'd say around what we're doing with prediction markets is, you know, there's opportunity to monetize this sort of category through our market making capabilities, you know, particularly in Combos, and that's something you'll see us do. I think, you know, look, we are focused on delivery of the One App. It's in the market now, and that lets us, you know, utilize and leverage the FanDuel brand nationally, right? Wherever you are, you can open the FanDuel sports app up and access, you know, either regulated OSB if you're here like I am in Manhattan, or if you're in California, you'd access our FanDuel Predicts products.
Yeah, I think we, you know, we want to acquire as many customers as we can on that through that platform, and I think leverage the national marketing that we already have. Yeah, we know the FanDuel brand resonates very well. We're building out, improving the quality of our, you know, predicts experience for customers. You know, we know how to do this, and we will expand the catalog and deliver a much better experience for customers. That's what we're focused on delivering this year.
It's worth also building slightly on what Peter said to say that, you know, we will remain very disciplined in terms of our investment around prediction markets and, you know, we'll invest more if we see opportunities to do so. it'd be a great position to be in at the end of the year if we're getting real traction, and we really want to put our shoulder behind the wheel with this. you know, equally, we will follow the same rigorous framework that's driven our success in the sports book business and, you know, we will continue to monitor the returns and the caps to LTVs as we move through. certainly when the improved product is in place for the World Cup and then the start of the NFL season, we certainly see some exciting opportunities.
Appreciate the questions, guys. Thanks.
Your next question comes from Jeff Stantial of Stifel. Jeffrey, your line is open.
Can you-
Please go ahead.
Hi, can you hear me?
Yes, we can.
Yeah.
Okay, great. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks. Sorry about that. Yeah, 2 from us. First, Peter, you mentioned in the release some challenges shipping product for prediction markets just at the velocity you would have expected or consistent with sports given some regulatory constraints. Can you just talk about or clarify sort of where this bottleneck is most pronounced? Is this sort of a function of the JV partnership? Is this more the lack of guardrails that you're seeing from the CFTC? Just sort of what explains this restriction to product development pacing? Then second, just a clarifying question. The release does note revenues were about $90 million ahead of your guidance in Q1 if you exclude the $45 million of hold impact. Can you just clarify where does this $90 million come from?
Is this sort of core sports, core casinos, is Arkansas or prediction markets, and then the decision not to sort of flush this through to the guide? That's all. Thanks.
Okay. I'll pick up the Predicts product question first of all. I think we have made some, you know, good progress in the first quarter. You know, I referenced that. I think the fact that we are now live with our sort of unified or one app is important, and I think is a great step for us, and we've also launched the market-making capabilities. You know, I think, you know, we are working hard to improve the breadth of our sports coverage we have, particularly around sort of Combos. You know, there have been some, as I said in the release, some challenges around that.
I think it's principally around our ability to access the, you know, the range of sort of content on our, rather than a sort of product front-end issue. Look, I'm confident that, you know, our teams have the capability to deliver great user experience and products for our customers. If you look at the, you know, actually the Betfair Predicts product, which, you know, is live in the U.K., I think it's a fantastic example of what the teams can deliver. I'd say, look, you know, I know that there's a lot of work going on to make sure that we can expand the range of the product, particularly from a sort of Combo perspective onto our own platforms.
you know, we will make sure that we adapt as we need to in order to win in sports.
Picking up on your question around the underlying theme. There were a couple of factors that we certainly saw some strong NBA handle in the quarter, which helped us offset the impact of the slightly unfavorable sports results and the Arkansas launch. Thinking about the year as we set out our guidance a couple of months ago, we did say that, you know, we're taking a sensible and measured view to the guidance. It's early in the year. Encouragingly, we are seeing some early signs that our plans are gaining traction. Given it is early in the year, we're not going to be updating the guidance at this stage, aside from the technical factors mentioned in the release.
Thanks very much.
Our next question comes from the line of Bernie McTernan with Needham and Company. Bernie, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Great. Thanks for taking the questions. First, just wanted to follow up on the continuing theme on the second half ramp. Just maybe any building blocks you can give in terms of how you think you're going to get back to year-over-year handle growth in the second half of the year. Just by the response of the last question, it sounds like NBA is trending positively. Would it be possible to see if any sort of quarter-to-date trends on handle just so we can compare versus the 1Q results? Then I have a follow-up.
Yeah, as I mentioned, Bernie, we're pleased with the momentum that we're seeing at the moment. We're seeing some positive year-on-year handle trends in NBA. As we talked about many times before on this call, we're not obsessively looking at handle as the 1 metric and that's one of the factors and building blocks for the full year. We don't actually need to see a huge incremental improvement from where we are in the year-on-year handle variance for us to hit the targets that we set out and the guidance that we set out. We're also anticipating a small amount of structural margin expansion as we move into the 2nd half of the year, which should be helped by the mix of sports.
As I said, for the overall generosity envelope for the full year, we're expecting that to be broadly in line. I'd say in the short term we're seeing some encouraging trends, and it's absolutely in line with our expectations and the phasing that we'd internally set out when we look at our guidance.
Bernie, I think when I look at the, you know, the sports book improvement plan and, you know, the changes that we're, you know, delivering and the benefits we're seeing through things like loyalty already, you know, the perception data that I'm seeing, you know, clearly demonstrates the benefits we're getting in the very, you know, from the very early cohorts onto the program. Excited to see what happens when we, you know, when we roll that out for the full year. You know, the Bet Protect stuff I think is getting real traction. There's a lot of good things coming down the track, which I think, you know, we see the benefits of already.
You know, as we get to, you know, the back half of the year, I think, you know, we'll see those in full rollout, and we'll get the full benefit of them.
Thank you. Then just 1 financial question, just gross margin in the U.S. were almost 200 basis points lower year-over-year despite revenue growth. What was the major driver there? Any one-timers? Was this just launch impacting, you know, the promotional spending? Just any puts and takes you provide there would be helpful. Thank you.
Yeah. There's a couple of factors. I mean, one would be the tax increases that we've seen year on year from a state perspective. We have New Jersey, Illinois, Louisiana, a couple of others, which is, you know, approximately 220 basis points in total. That's probably the main moving part. Of course, when you look at this year on year, there's sports results impact to take into account. We're making great progress, as we've said before, on things like payment and fraud costs, and we've really got, you know, cost of sales in our crosshairs in terms of how we make more efficiencies as we move forward. The main movement margin-wise year on year will be down to the tax changes.
Got it. Thank you very much.
Your next question comes from the line of Ben Shelley with UBS. Ben, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon. Good evening, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I've just got two. One on U.S. promotions. I'd like to understand more about how U.S. online sports betting promotions in the quarter, you know, excluding state launches, how did they fare on a same state basis? With regards to prediction markets and CAC inflation, can you comment on whether you're seeing any inflationary impact on customer acquisition costs from prediction market related marketing spend? Thank you.
Hi, Ben. Why don't I pick up the question around the sort of prediction market inflation? I think, you know, from our perspective, we are not seeing any sort of, you know, any change in terms of the competitiveness we have in the market. We have reasonably long-term deals in place for a lot of our marketing deals with our partners. We're not subject to sort of the vagaries of, you know, short-term fluctuations from people trying to spend more money or not. You know, I think it's, you know, it remains a very competitive place, but it has been for some time. I think, you know, the nature of our national, you know, partners and deals that we have put us in a good place.
Yeah. When, when you look at the generosity year on year, you have to take in probably about 50 basis points from the new states. I think our focus at the moment is on how do we get the biggest bang for our buck from our generosity laydown across our customer base. As Peter outlined earlier, I think we've seen some really encouraging response so far from the changes that we've made, and the customer feedback has been incredibly positive from BetProtect+ and also the early days of the new loyalty scheme and sportsbook that we've launched. You know, we're really positive about that. We've, we've said previously that our generosity envelope for the full year, we anticipate being broadly in line with 2025. We've not changed our view on that.
Thank you, guys.
Your next question comes from the line of Brandt Montour with Barclays. Brandt, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hey, everybody. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one's on prediction markets. How do you think about the cadence of the spend on prediction markets 2Q, 3Q, 4Q, in light of the fact that I, you know, I assume that the one app is, you know, is not necessarily where you want it to eventually be in terms of the product level, but then also the sports calendar, you know, do you need to be there in a big way for World Cup? Do you wanna wait and save dry powder for NFL? How do you sort of balance that sports calendar as well against that?
Yeah, let me pick up on that, Brandt, in terms of how we're currently thinking about that. Starting off in Q1, that was really about testing and learning for us really in terms of, you know, generosity and marketing around our Predicts products and demonstrating our ability to be able to acquire customers and actually establish some presence in the category. We spent circa $40 million in Q1. As I said in my previous answer, it's pretty early days, actually we've always said consistently that we anticipate the majority of our spend on this to be in the second half of the year, our view has not changed. We will invest behind the FIFA World Cup, we expect to ramp our spend slightly from where we've been in Q1 in Q2.
We also, you know, retain the right to flex that, as I mentioned earlier, because we're going to closely be looking at the returns that we're getting on a CAC and LTV basis on the prediction customers that come into our ecosystem. You know, we really want to get behind the start of the NFL season in the second half of the year. You know, we need to make sure that we've got the right products in place to do that and, you know, we'll be looking at the prediction investment envelope alongside what we're doing in our core sportsbook as well. As we've always said of our capital allocation framework, we'll be investing where we see the best returns in the business.
We don't see the overall envelope changing from where we were previously at with predicts at this point in time. It's an evolving picture and, you know, as I said earlier, it would be great to be here at the end of the year saying we're actually spending more because, you know, it's really taking off behind NFL in the second half of the year.
Okay, great. Just a separate question on iGaming. That market in the U.S. slowed a little bit sequentially and one of your key competitors, you know, hinted at that being a tougher competitive environment, yet you guys outgrew the market and gained share. You know, how sustainable is that sort of performance that you saw and do you also think that the market's gotten any either less growthy or more competitive sequentially?
We were really pleased with the iGaming performance in Q1. You know, AMPS were up 10%, revenue was up 19%. You know, revenue growth from the direct casino customers was even higher. You know, to some extent, our performance was impacted by the fact we came into the year with a smaller, you know, sports business. I think, you know, the focus we've had on, you know, on our Rewards Club and, you know, this is the sort of second year we've had the program, the focus on our exclusive content, the relationships we have with our, you know, the key influencers has been, you know, really important for the business. I think the team are doing a great job executing.
As it relates to sort of market, you know, growth, the market can't keep growing at the same percentage rates, right? It becomes, you know, as the market grows, you inevitably see some slowdown. When I look at the market penetration levels, there's still a long way to go. You know, I think the team are executing well. We've got, you know, the leading position in iGaming and we're performing well.
Great. Thanks, everyone.
We now ask that each analyst limit themself to one question. Our next question comes from the line of Joe Stauff from Susquehanna. Joe, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Joe Stauff. I wanted to ask on your reinvestment in FanDuel OSB, is it fair to say that, you know, that largely started in March? Wondering if AMPS grew in April.
Did you have a second question, Joe, or you just taking one?
Yeah, sure. For the World Cup, Peter, you had mentioned another exchange that you could plug into. Will, will you be plugged into that, you know, more than the CME going into the World Cup?
Let me take the World Cup question and then follow up on your first question. You know, we wanna make sure that we have as compelling a sports offering for our customers as we can. You know, we, you know, have got a very exciting set of products that bring to our regulated OSB, leveraging the, you know, the Flutter edge and the global expertise we have in soccer. You know, we're excited about that and the opportunity to bring customers onto the platform. You know, I think from a predicts product, you know, we do have the right to connect up with other venues.
It's something we are focused on and, you know, the timing of it is tight, but we'll see where we can get to in terms of that for the World Cup.
Yeah. On your first question, Joe, from an AMPs and Geno perspective. As we've said, you know, we're laying down a number of new initiatives, which we're very pleased with some of the traction that we're getting. We are seeing sequential improvement in a number of our KPIs from Q1 into Q2. You know, we're not getting overly hung up on any one metric. Across the board we're seeing a lot of green up on the dashboard, which is helpful. We also have some noise. We said we'd see this around March Madness, where we had a very customer-friendly period in the prior year. You always get some noise around handle and AMPs as you move through that period.
Actually, we'd be taking the March Madness that we had this year over last year every day of the week. We're quite pleased with the way that that played through for us.
We're pleased with the momentum that we're now seeing in GT.
Thanks, guys.
Our next question comes from the line of Ed Young with Morgan Stanley. Ed, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Good evening. In your shared letter, Peter, you said that you've got a clear plan of improvement for the sportsbook, and you've laid out a lot of the product and kind of iterations that are coming. I wonder if you could sort of help us take a step back and give a bit more of the diagnosis of what you think has gone wrong within the business. Obviously, you've made some changes and it's, you know, good to see some decisiveness there. On a bigger picture level, you know, where has the business not been doing what it should have been doing? Are there any kind of, you know, beyond organizational changes, any kind of macro changes in terms of how FanDuel needs to approach the market in terms of, you know, competitive intensity or promotional intensity?
It doesn't sound like that's what you're saying, but you're also saying that, you know, Dan Taylor's coming in to sort of review and oversee the business. Please, your diagnosis, and perhaps could you share some of it with us today? Thanks.
Evening. Well, evening your time, Ed. I think we've been pretty clear around what the issues are for us from a sports perspective in the U.S. Look, I would describe, you know, the intentions of the team as being one where we just, you know, we're getting back to focus on the customer first approach. Yeah, we've, you know, we've seen that with the way in which we've been trading the business in the last, you know, in this last quarter where, you know, I mentioned in my opening remarks the stuff we've been doing around, you know, the Mets. I think, you know, there's been some good sort of justice refunds the team have been doing.
I think, yeah, it's engaging, and it gets you on the front foot from a sort of social perspective, and that's important to do, right? I think it's something which we do, you know, around the world. I think the Bet Protect product was important as we needed to deal, you know, with the issue of injuries, which was a, you know, has been a real, you know, challenge for us in the market. I think we've got a great solution in place. You know, as I mentioned, you know, we've seen, you know, the, you know, quite, you know, twice the sort of levels of engagement that we had expected, you know, with that product already. Look, there's certainly plenty of ways in which you can see us evolving it in time.
Clearly one way we can evolve it, you know, with the launch of the loyalty or reward program. You know, there may be tiers of it, for example, where we can give customers access to free Bet Protect. As said, the integration of all of the different aspects of the product is something which is gonna be really important for us to make sure that we're offering great value to our customers. There's, you know, this isn't about a sort of, you know, fundamental change in posture of margin and generosity or anything like that. You know, I think we, you know, we know what we need to do around loyalty. We know what we need to do around, you know, the injury stuff. We are getting better on the front foot from a trading perspective.
I think we, you know, we're making lots of progress there. I think the two other things I'd call out from a product perspective is, you know, we have, you know, superior structural gross win margins in comparison with everyone else in the market. That's something which doesn't happen by accident. I think it's as a result of the quality of our, and accuracy of our pricing, and that's something that's really important, and it's something that we intend to continue to invest behind and sustain. I think, you know, that, you know, that is a feature that you see from us in all of our markets. The other aspect I'd pick on is, there's a lot we're doing from a sort of core product sort of hygiene perspective, you know.
You know, it sounds like, you know, these are sort of simple things. You know, the iOS launch time is now less than 2 seconds. You know, we've got full screen streaming available for key sports. You know, we've upgraded some of our live betting. We've simplified Same Game Parlay buildings. You know, you can track 5 bets on the lock screen. There's lots of small enhancements like that we will continue to roll out and deliver. Actually the cadence of delivery of this stuff is all being improved with our sort of investment and focus in AI. The throughput we're seeing from a product perspective is stepping up material, and it's really exciting to see that translate into the product that customers are seeing, you know, in their hands on their phone.
You know, there's no change in strategy. I think we've got clarity. I think we're putting customers first, and we're getting back on the front foot, and we're starting to see the sequential benefits of that.
Okay. Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Estelle Weingrod with JP Morgan. Estelle, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi, good evening. Thanks for taking my question. I've got one on the U.K. Sports handle was a negative 5%. You mentioned in your remarks an improving momentum in March. Could you elaborate on the actions you are taking in the U.K., in that segment and are these improvement confirmed and sustained in April and May? Thank you.
Yeah, I mean, the biggest drag on performance in the U.K. is Sky Bet. It's an area where we're seeing now sequential improvements coming, you know, as time passes by since the migration.
We've seen a big step change if we look at revenues up 9% on a normalized basis in March, which is compared with flat for the Q1 period as a whole. Good sequential improvements in sports. I think from a gaming perspective, we're also making progress. If I look at the leading indicators, we've had the highest customer acquisition volumes for 5 years onto the brand. Sky Betting & Gaming has now got more than 1 million customers, which is the first time ever, and that happened in March. Actually, the iLers in Cryochek ranked the app second.
You know, there's been a big step up in how that's perceived from a customer perspective. It's, you know, number one for betting interface and aesthetics. There's been a strong, you know, lots of other metrics we could talk about. I think from my perspective, it just feels very similar to the experience we had post the Paddy Power migration, where there was a, you know, first year sort of reset, you know, we've obviously seen very strong performance from Paddy subsequently. We've now got great product for the Sky customers. We've addressed some of the issues that we've seen post-migration, I think we're starting to see some of the green shoots come through.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Ruddy with Davy. Paul, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good evening, guys. Just one follow-up on the U.S. generosity and customer acquisition journey. Just regarding paybacks on the state launches.
Paul, we've lost you. Sam, are you still there?
Yes. We will move on to the next question and reconnect Paul when we can.
Okay.
Our next question comes from Chad Beynon with Macquarie. Chad, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you very much. Just one from me. Given your previous success in acquiring brands, most of which had podium positions, given this the stock dislocation right now in our sector, whether it's B2C, B2B, sports data affiliate, what's your appetite to maybe do another deal at this time, given depressed valuations in the market? Thanks.
We have, you know, and, you know, done plenty of deals, as you say, Chad, I think we've been really pleased with the progress we're making with the integration in Brazil. You know, it's gonna be great to see the benefits of the pricing and promo capabilities go into that business, you know, ahead of the Soccer World Cup. You know, I think it's gonna be super exciting to see what SNAI do, you know, with all of the capabilities we'll give them access to now that the migrations happened successfully there. You know, there's a lot for us to go after across the business. You know, we are, you know, always open to sort of M&A if we think that the prices are right.
You know, I think, right now for us, you know, we are, you know, continuing to focus on those integrations and there's a, you know, there's a lot to do, you know, in the U.S. business. We also need to acknowledge our sort of leverage, and I think, you know, there's a, you know, a focus at the moment on deleveraging.
Thanks, Peter.
Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Sigdahl with Craig-Hallum. Ryan, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hey, good afternoon. This is Will on for Ryan. Just wanted to ask on sort of some of the portfolio optimization we've seen lately. You shuttered FanDuel Picks last month. FanDuel TV racing is shutting down. I think Betfair in Mexico has also ceased operations. Just curious if there's an increased focus on sort of portfolio and resource optimization and if there are any other products and/or markets that are being considered. Thanks.
Yeah. Hi, Will. I mean, this is a constant focus for us in terms of optimization and efficiencies and, you know, the decisions that we took around FanDuel TV and Picks were relatively easy for us in terms of where we want our focus to be in the U.S. with FanDuel at the moment. Actually, I think in particular with FanDuel TV, that delivers some good cost efficiency for us. I think with regards to the broader portfolio across the group, you know, we will continually review, as we sit here today, at the moment, the majority of our brands are performing extremely well for us. You know, that's not a problem that we have in the near term.
You know, we'll continue to focus on costs and where opportunities present themselves, we'll lean into that.
Great. Thanks, guys.
Your next question comes from the line of Shaun Kelley with Bank of America. Shaun, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi, good evening, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Peter and Rob, just maybe super high level, we noticed that there was an application for a direct FCM license recently. Just wondering if any of the management changes made allow for a bigger or slightly bigger rethink on strategy in your approach to vertical integration in prediction markets?
Rob, if we could just get a little color for the second half on sort of your thoughts around revenue contribution and what's baked into the guide directionally, obviously not solid numbers, but directionally for prediction markets in terms of contribution in the second half. Thanks.
Sure. I'll be very brief because you've asked two questions. You know, on the license application, yeah, I think in general, you know, I'd go back to what I was referring to earlier on the call. You know, we wanna make sure that we can adapt and, you know, do what we need to do in order to win. I mean, I think, you know, we're very much focused on ensuring that we can build a great sports solution for customers wherever they are. You know, we need to make sure we've got the right range of products available to them. We're connected to other venues at the moment, but of course, you know, we have made an application which provides us with further optionality.
You know, we've got to adapt and do what we need to do in order to win for our customers.
On the prediction market revenue contribution, we're not guiding in detail at this stage. I think that the best indication that you can take, Shaun, is what I mentioned earlier in the sense that we intend to step up the spend as we move through the year. We'll see some upticking in Q2, and then we'll intend to do more behind the NFL in Q3 and give more detail in time.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of John DeCree with CBRE. John, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Sure. Thank you. Thanks, Peter and Rob for taking all of our questions. Maybe an easy one. I think there was a comment about reduced cross-sell from sportsbook to iCasino in the U.S. Obviously good iGaming results kind of offset that. You know, we kind of assume that might just be the lower AMPS in the sports platform in the quarter, but curious if there was any change in behavior among cross-sell.
You answered the question, John. That's exactly the point. You know, we've seen very strong performance in the direct casino in a part of our business, as we always have. You know, you know, with a, you know, smaller phase coming into the year, you know, it impacted our, you know, this denominator effectively. You know, look, this is not a issue in terms of any change in behavior other than that.
We continue to be the top brand for awareness and preference on direct casino customers, so we'll continue to harness that.
Great. Thanks for clarifying. Appreciate it, guys.
Your next question comes from the line of Monique Pollard with Citi. Monique, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi. Afternoon, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. I just had a question on this market making capability in the U.S. around prediction markets. Obviously, you're trialing it, and then you're gonna be launching it later in the year. It feels to me like potentially that could be quite a material opportunity. Just trying to understand if you think it can be quite material over time and whether in that second half U.S. adjusted EBITDA guidance anything is baked in for that market making capability as it ramps up through the year.
Hi. Hi, Monique. I've spent time with the team who are doing this market making. It's great. I'm excited about it, you know. I mean, it's great we're making, you know, money, you know, today from, you know, offering this capability, particularly focused on Combos and leveraging the pricing expertise we have. It's small scale at the moment. We will launch our own sort of platform, you know, in the coming months, and I think we'll then be able to step up the, you know, the volumes that we're doing. Yeah. You know, the only bit that's factored into our guide at the moment is the investment. You know, look, we need to wait and see how successful we are, and then we can talk to you about the revenues that we're generating.
I think, you know, we're, you know, I think we've got the conviction around our ability to offer a very compelling service in this area, you know, leveraging the pricing expertise that we have.
Okay. Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Fishman with MoffettNathanson. Robert, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. Just curious, how does Kalshi and Polymarket striking partnerships with the major U.S. sports leagues impact how you plan to partner or approach the leagues going forward? Thank you.
I think from our business perspective, you know, we have relationships with lots of, you know, leagues and sports bodies and teams, you know, across the country. You know, we are the number 1, you know, place for people to go for, you know, for regulated online sports betting. I think we wanna be the premier destination for sports, whether that's through, you know, OSB or the prediction market route. I think, you know, our 1 app allows us to do that dynamically. You know, wherever you travel across America, you better access our product and capability. I think, you know, we can leverage our national sort of advertising as a consequence of that.
I think, you know, there'll be some interesting, you know, questions and conversations for us to have with, you know, those leagues and sporting bodies and other relationships we have. Okay. I think, we have no further questions now. I'd like to thank everybody for dialing in and asking us all the questions. Much appreciated. If you've got any follow-ups or other questions, please let us know afterwards. Thank you.
This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.