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Earnings Call: Q1 2022

May 3, 2022

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this is the operator. Today's FMC Corporation conference call is scheduled to begin momentarily. If you should experience difficulties during today's call, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. If you would like to be placed in the Q&A queue, please press the star key, then one at any time. Your lines will be placed on music hold until the conference begins. Good morning and welcome to the Q1 2022 earnings call for FMC Corporation. This event is being recorded and all participants are in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's prepared remarks, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To be placed in the Q&A queue, please press the star key, then one at any time.

If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing these keys. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Zack Zaki, Director of Investor Relations for FMC Corporation. Please go ahead.

Zack Zaki
Director of Investor Relations, FMC Corporation

Thank you, sir, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to FMC Corporation's Q1 earnings call. Joining me today are Mark Douglas, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Andrew Sandifer, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Mark will review our Q1 performance as well as provide an outlook for the Q2 and implied H1 expectations. He will also provide an update to our full-year outlook and implied H2 expectations. Andrew will provide an overview of select financial results. Following the prepared remarks, we will take questions. Our earnings release and today's slide presentation are available on our website, and the prepared remarks from today's discussion will be made available after the call.

Let me remind you that today's presentation and discussion will include forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties concerning specific factors, including, but not limited to, these factors identified in earnings release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Information presented represents our best judgment based on today's understanding. Actual results may vary based upon these risks and uncertainties. Today's discussion and the supporting materials will include references to adjusted EPS, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted cash from operations, free cash flow and organic revenue growth, all of which are non-GAAP financial measures. Please note that as used in today's discussion, earnings means adjusted earnings and EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA. A reconciliation and definition of these terms, as well as other non-GAAP financial terms to which we may refer during today's conference call, are provided on our website.

With that, I will now turn the call over to Mark.

Mark Douglas
President and CEO, FMC Corporation

Thank you, Zack, and good morning, everyone. Before I move into details on our results, I'd like to take a moment to provide an update on FMC's position related to the war in Ukraine. In mid-April, we announced the decision to discontinue our operations in Russia and exit the country completely, making FMC the first crop input provider to exit Russia. We could not ignore increasing reports of potential war crimes, human rights abuses, and other atrocities committed in the Ukraine. Our values as a company do not allow FMC to operate and grow our business in Russia. Furthermore, as the war continued and new sanctions and counter-sanctions were levied, FMC's ability to conduct business in Russia had become unsustainable. A cross-functional team continues to navigate the extraordinary logistics and supply chain challenges in Ukraine and other parts of Eastern Europe.

FMC and our employees raised nearly $300,000 for charities supporting the Ukrainian people and families in need. Our hearts and thoughts remain with all Ukrainians, and especially our FMC colleagues and their families. Turning to FMC's performance in Q1. We delivered strong results driven by robust volumes and solid pricing actions across all regions. We grew our revenue by 16% organically, EBITDA by 16%, EPS by 23%, and importantly, expanded our EBITDA margins by approximately 60 basis points while confronting a variety of supply and cost challenges, as well as increasing currency headwinds. With disruptions impacting several agricultural inputs, we believe some of our Q1 sales were accelerated from Q2 as customers look to secure supply in advance.

Given this context, our guidance for Q2 combined with Q1 actuals implies 11% revenue growth and 8% EBITDA growth for the H1 of the year compared to the H1 of 2021, which is much more front-loaded than prior years. Latin America and North America contributed greatly to our success in the quarter, supported by elevated commodity prices, acreage increases, and historically low stock to use ratios for several crops. Sales from products launched in the past five years increased by more than 50% in the quarter compared to the same period last year, demonstrating the strength of our technology pipeline and product portfolio. The global plant health business also continued its growth trajectory, with biologicals growing 15% year- over- year. Last year, we announced our goal to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2035.

We recently achieved the first milestone towards that goal by submitting 2030 emissions reduction targets to the Science Based Targets initiative. These targets include 42% absolute reduction in direct emission from FMC's own sources and indirect emissions from purchased electricity, steam, heating, and cooling, also known as Scope 1 and 2, as well as a 25% absolute reduction in all indirect emissions that occur in the value chain, otherwise known as Scope 3 emissions. An incredible amount of rigor went into developing these targets with our sustainability team, conducting an exhaustive review of all factors contributing to FMC's greenhouse gas emissions and quantifying those emissions across the entire value chain. We will publish our eleventh annual sustainability report in the coming weeks, and we look forward to speaking more on this topic in upcoming calls.

Turning to slide three for our Q1 results, keeping in mind my earlier comment about shifts within the H1 , we reported $1.35 billion in Q1 revenue, which reflects a 13% increase on a reported basis and 16% organic growth. We had double-digit growth in all product categories, with fungicides showing the greatest growth year-over-year at 20%. Biologicals grew 15%, continuing the momentum of our plant health business. Regional growth was driven by strong volume gains in North America and Latin America, as well as high single-digit price increases in all four regions. FX was a headwind to top line growth in EMEA. Adjusted EBITDA was $355 million, an increase of 16% compared to the prior year period, and $30 million above the midpoint of our guidance range.

EBITDA margins were 26.3%, an increase of 60 basis points compared to the prior year period. Cost inflation continued to be a challenge and at a higher rate than anticipated. We moved price more aggressively in all regions to offset these increasing headwinds. We have also been actively managing our SG&A costs, some of which shifted from Q1 into Q2. FX was a headwind to EBITDA. Adjusted earnings of $1.88 per diluted share in the quarter, an increase of 23% versus Q1 2021, and $0.18 above the midpoint of our guidance range. The year-over-year increase was primarily driven by an increase in EBITDA, with the benefit from lower share counts and lower interest expenses, largely offset by higher minority interest and taxes. Moving now to slide four.

Q1 revenue increased by 13% versus prior year, driven by an 8% volume increase and an 8% pricing gain. Foreign currencies were a headwind of 3% in the quarter on the top line. In North America, strong commodity prices supported robust demand for inputs. Sales increased 30% year-over-year, with broad-based growth across all indications and for a variety of crops such as tree fruits, nuts, vines, corn, and soy. In the U.S., we grew with Rynaxypyr brands such as Vantacor and Altacor in fruits and vegetables. Xyway, our unique in-furrow fungicide, continues to gain significant momentum while providing season-long protection for corn from foliar diseases. Sales of biologicals almost doubled in the U.S., led by Ethos XB for corn and soybeans. Ethos XB is a unique combination of a synthetic insecticide for seedling insect protection with biological microorganisms that have fungicidal properties.

Our Canadian business had a record quarter, driven by low channel inventory of insecticides and strength in cereal herbicides. We also successfully launched Coragen MaX, which is the new higher concentration formulation of Rynaxypyr active, targeting pests on corn, dry beans, and several other crops. Over 30% of FMC's branded sales in North America this quarter came from products which were launched in the last five years. Moving now to Latin America. Sales increased 31% year-over-year, led by Brazil and Argentina, driven by volume and price increases as well as a 6% FX tailwind driven by the Brazilian real. Colombia, Peru, and Ecuador also grew double digits in the quarter. In Brazil, we grew our herbicide brands Aurora and Gamit on soy, corn, sugarcane, and coffee. We also grew our insecticide brands, Talisman, Hero, and Coragen on soy, corn, and cotton.

FMC continues to reap the benefits of a strategy to improve market access and increase penetration of our technologies in the Brazilian soybean market. Sales in EMEA grew 11% versus prior year, excluding currency headwinds. Results were driven by strong price increases across the region, as well as demand for Rynaxypyr-based brands, Coragen and Altacor for corn, and herbicide brands Express and Pointer for sunflowers. Registration losses and product rationalizations were largely offset by new product launches in the quarter. Over 10% of branded sales in the quarter came from products launched in the last 5 years. FX was a significant headwind in the quarter, resulting in flat year-over-year revenue growth. Sales in Asia were up 2% versus Q1 last year and up 5% organically.

The increase was driven by pricing actions and strong performance in Australia and ASEAN countries, offset mainly by a reduction in Indian rice acres. Approximately 15% of branded sales in the quarter came from products launched in the last five years. Turning now to the Q1 EBITDA on slide five. EBITDA was up 16% year-over-year, driven by pricing and volume gains, which were partially offset by cost and FX headwinds. Price was up $94 million in the quarter, with high single-digit increases implemented in all 4 regions. It is important to note that our pricing actions were taken to offset the sustained cost inflation we're experiencing across our supply chain. Raw material, energy, logistics, packaging, and labor costs remained elevated and contributed to the $62 million cost headwind in the quarter. FX was a $16 million headwind in the quarter with weakening European currencies.

Overall, EBITDA margins expanded 60 basis points in the quarter. Before I review FMC's full year 2022 and Q2 earnings outlook, let me share our view of the overall market conditions. We continue to expect the global crop protection market will be up low- to mid-single-digit % on a US dollar basis. Breaking this down by region, we expect Latin America, North America, and Asia to be up mid-single digits %, while EMEA is now expected to be down low single digit %. The war in Ukraine may further reduce market growth in the EMEA region. Commodity prices for many of the major crops remain elevated and stock-to-use ratios are near historical lows, creating a favorable backdrop for crop protection products. FX is projected to be a headwind for EMEA and Asia markets on a US dollar basis.

Turning to slide six and the review of FMC's full year 2022 and Q2 earnings outlook. Despite the volatile supply and geopolitical environment, we remain confident in our ability to deliver solid growth in 2022. FMC's full year revenue is forecasted to be in the range of $5.25 billion-$5.55 billion, representing an increase of 7% at the midpoint versus 2021, driven by volume and price growth in all regions, partially offset by currency headwinds. Full year adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $1.32 billion-$1.48 billion, representing 6% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. This will be achieved through pricing actions and strong volumes. However, rising costs and supply disruptions will continue to be significant headwinds to EBITDA.

2022 adjusted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $6.70-$8.00 per diluted share, representing an increase of 6% year-over-year at the midpoint. Consistent with past practice, we do not factor in any benefit from future share repurchases in our EPS guidance. Discontinuing our Russia business does not change our full-year earnings expectation at this time, and it will take some time for us to assess the full financial implications for our exit. For reference, however, our Russian operations made up approximately 1.5% of global sales in 2021. Guidance for Q2 takes into account the shift of some sales from Q2 into Q1 as customers across many countries placed orders in advance to secure supplies during these uncertain times.

Given the current industry dynamics, it is possible we will see the same phenomena occur with future orders moving into Q2. Q2 guidance implies sales growth of 9% at the midpoint, EBITDA growth of 1% at the midpoint, and EPS growth of 2% at the midpoint year-over-year. Turning to Slide seven on the updated range of 2022 EBITDA outcomes. The market backdrop is supportive, with FX limiting crop protection growth to low to mid-single digits. Pricing actions and strong market demand have offset quickly rising costs so far. However, volatility persists due to renewed COVID-related shutdowns in China, energy cost inflation in Europe, and ongoing disruption of global supply chains and logistics. FMC continues to deliver products to our customers in a timely manner despite these disruptions, but reliable supply is coming at an increased cost.

We do not expect to see any cost relief through the remainder of 2022. EMEA and Asia have experienced FX headwinds, only partially offset by the positive currency impact in Brazil. In addition, our decision to exit the Russian market and the impact of the war in Ukraine are new considerations. Turning to Slide eight on full year revenue and EBITDA drivers. Strong volume expansion and price increases across all regions will drive revenue growth. FX volatility is expected to be a negative factor on our full-year revenue outlook. In terms of crop mix, we expect roughly half our sales to come from specialty crops, such as fruit and vegetables, sugar, rice, and cotton. Almost 40% of our sales are expected to come from corn, soy, and cereals such as wheat. FMC's crop diversity is a long-term competitive advantage since we're not over-indexed to any single commodity.

Our EBITDA guidance reflects strong demand for our existing portfolio of new products as well as mid-single-digit price increases. These benefits to EBITDA are partially offset by substantial cost headwinds, as well as investments in SG&A and R&D. Moving to Slide nine on Q2 drivers. On the revenue line, volume growth is expected to continue along with price increases in all regions that will start to lap some of the increases taken last year. We are anticipating FX headwinds to continue, principally from European and Asian currencies. We also expect to see impacts from our decision to exit Russia beginning in the Q2 . For EBITDA, positive drivers include volume, especially for new products and pricing actions. The benefit from these drivers will be largely offset by elevated raw material, packaging, and logistics costs, as well as some SG&A costs that shifted from Q1 into Q2.

FX-related headwinds are also expected to persist, especially in EMEA. Turning to Slide 10, with the guidance for Q2 and the full year on record, we would like to also show the implied forecast for the two halves. Revenue forecast for the H1 of 2022 indicates 11% growth over the H1 of 2021. Implied revenue forecast for the H2 of 2022 indicates 4% growth over the prior year period. This is consistent with the stronger pricing actions and significant volume gains achieved in the H2 of last year, especially in the Q4 of 2021. EBITDA forecast for the H1 of 2022 indicates 8% growth over prior year period, driven by strong demand and pricing actions offset by cost and FX headwinds.

Our guidance also implies 4% year-over-year EBITDA growth in the H2 of the year. This results in a more front-weighted outlook for EBITDA growth compared to last year. I'll now turn the call over to Andrew.

Andrew Sandifer
EVP and CFO, FMC Corporation

Thanks, Mark. I'll start this morning with a review of some key income statement items. FX was a headwind to revenue growth in the Q1 , as expected, driven by weakness in European currencies, particularly the Turkish lira and euro. The Brazilian real was a tailwind in the quarter, offsetting modest weakness in several Asian currencies. We continue to anticipate FX headwinds for the remainder of 2022, as the US dollar is expected to appreciate against many currencies of importance to FMC. Interest expense for the Q1 was $29.9 million, down $2.5 million versus the prior year period, primarily due to the refinancing activity completed in the Q4 of last year.

For full year 2022, we now expect interest expense to be in the range of $125 million-$145 million, an increase of $10 million at the midpoint compared to our prior guidance, driven by more rapid increases in US interest rates than previously anticipated. Our effective tax rate on adjusted earnings for the Q1 was 14%, in line with our continued expectation for a full-year tax rate in the range of 13%-15%. Moving next to the balance sheet and liquidity. Gross debt at quarter end was $3.8 billion, up roughly $600 million from year-end. Gross debt to trailing twelve-month EBITDA was 2.7 times at the end of the Q1 , while net debt to EBITDA was 2.5 times.

Both metrics are slightly above our targeted full year average leverage levels, as expected, given the seasonal build of our working capital. We continue to expect to maintain full year average leverage in our targeted 2.4-2.5x gross or 2.3-2.4x net ranges. Moving on to cash flow in Slide 11. Q1 free cash flow of -$664 million was in line with our expectations for this point in the year and reflects the strong seasonality of our working capital. Adjusted cash from operations was down more than $300 million compared to the prior prior year, driven by higher working capital, partially offset by improvement in non-working capital items. Strong sales growth, higher application of customer prepayments, and lower payables were key drivers of increased cash consumption from working capital.

Capital additions and other investing activities of $55 million were up $16 million compared to the prior year as we continue to increase spending to catch up on deferred projects and to invest in our growth. Legacy and transformation spending was down primarily due to the absence of spend on our SAP program, which was completed last year. For full year 2022, we continue to forecast free cash flow of $515 million-$735 million. Adjusted cash from operations is flat to the prior year at the high end of our guidance range, limited by working capital growth. Capacity increases, especially to support our new products that are seeing rapid growth, will drive higher capital additions. We continue to expect legacy and transformation to be a tailwind, with somewhat lower legacy spending and minimal transformation expense expected in 2022.

With this guidance, we anticipate Free Cash Flow conversion from earnings of 67% at the midpoint. Our capital allocation priorities remain first, fully funding organic growth and pursuing inorganic growth through technology and market access M&A, then returning excess cash to shareholders through a growing dividend and share repurchases. We continue to anticipate strongly rewarding shareholders in 2022, with dividends of around $270 million and share repurchases of $500 million-$600 million. We paid dividends of $67 million during the quarter. Given our cash flow and leverage, we did not repurchase any shares in the Q1 . With that, I'll hand the call back to Mark.

Mark Douglas
President and CEO, FMC Corporation

Thank you, Andrew. Our Q1 performance, in combination with the guidance for Q2, reflects FMC's ability to mitigate cost increases through pricing actions and to fulfill robust demand under challenging supply conditions. Our new product introductions continue to gain momentum, with over 30% of expected full-year revenue growth coming from products introduced in the last five years. Our global plant health business continues its impressive growth trajectory led by biologicals. 2022 is proving to be one of the most challenging years, even considering all we've had to manage since 2019. Our continued success stems from our strong customer focus, the way FMC's cross-functional teams are overcoming headwinds, and finally, the strength of our robust technology and new product pipeline. All these attributes will serve us well through the remainder of the year. I'll now turn the call back to the operator for questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To be placed in the queue, please press the star key, then one on your touch-tone phone. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. Please limit yourself to one question only. If you have additional questions, you can rejoin the queue. To withdraw from the queue, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question today is from Vincent Andrews at Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead, Vincent.

Vincent Andrews
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Thank you very much. Mark and Andrew, just, you know, the 8% pricing in the quarter in all regions was extremely strong. It was almost twice what we've been anticipating, and I think it compares versus 4% in the Q4 . What did you do differently in this quarter, if anything, to get, you know, that strong pricing achievement so quickly? And if you could also comment whether there's any mix in that 8% number or just what mix would be in general.

Mark Douglas
President and CEO, FMC Corporation

Vincent, thank you. Mix for us resides in volume. What you're seeing in pricing is all actual pricing invoiced in the marketplace. Listen, I think we've been very clear as we went through the H2 of last year. We started moving price in North America, actually in Q2, and then raised in other regions as we went through the year. As you can see in our results as pricing continued to build. What we realized as we were going through Q4 was that costs were going to come in significantly higher than we had forecasted internally as we enter 2022. We made the decision that not only would we raise prices in markets that were active at that point, but also getting ready for other markets around the world.

What you saw was really a broad-based move by FMC across pretty much every country to really drive price in anticipation of costs. You could see that in the quarter. Pricing was higher than cost in the quarter. It's not going to look like that in every quarter as we go forward. If you will recall, we did say that we expected price to offset COGS impact of inflation and availability throughout the year. We still maintain that. What you should see from our results, though, is that our pricing is much higher than we anticipated because that impact of the supply disruptions and cost in general is still flowing through the business. We need that cost, make no mistake, and the commercial groups are very active in the marketplace. If we continue to see disruptions in costs, we will continue to move price.

I think that's something that's very important not only for FMC, but for the industry in general. Things are not getting better out there. When I think about what we're seeing, I don't think we've seen the full impact of COVID yet in China, all the lockdowns that we see. We're having supply disruptions in China, probably as bad as they've been in the past. What worries me more is logistics out of China, the amount of freight that is trapped in the major ports in China. Just the amount of freight, ships that are stuck outside China suggests that that wave is yet to come. We're getting ahead of the curve. I think that's the right thing to do. Pricing is the main tool.

Now, that's not to say we're not managing costs internally, and we alluded to that in the call. We did move SG&A lower through actions that we took. Some of that flowed into Q2 from our stock up. When you look at the H1 , it's a very strong H1 .

Vincent Andrews
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Thank you so much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Laurent Favre from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead, Laurent.

Laurent Favre
Managing Director, BNP Paribas

Good morning, and thanks for taking my question. Mark, it's really related to your market assessment. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about, I guess volumes including mix, so, really intensity of use. Are there reasons why you would not expect a higher intensity of use, more spraying? Also, can you talk maybe about the risk of down trading with farmers being so squeezed on all sorts of, input costs, including fertilizers? Thank you.

Mark Douglas
President and CEO, FMC Corporation

Yeah. Thanks, Laurent Favre. You know, when you look at the market today, we view the market obviously as a positive backdrop. Soft commodity prices are high. Stock to use ratios are very low, almost at 10-year lows in some cases. We know many of the regions that are entering the planting seasons now are going to plant as much as they possibly can. Allied to that is the fact that to get the most yield, you will want to use the best products. Now, one thing that is often misunderstood is pricing is not necessarily related to value. Generics sell on price. We sell on value. So the usage of our products enables greater productivity and yield gains than you can get with other types of products. That's proven to be true as we've gone through numerous cycles.

When I think back to 2008 and 2009 in this business, the ag business performed extremely well. Why? Because people want to get the highest yield they can, and they tend to use the best technologies to do that. We're seeing that with demand for our products. Think about the comments I made about, you know, we're gonna have $600 million of revenue this year from products introduced in the last five years. That tells you that the newer products are the best ones to use to get that yield. We don't see people reducing sprays at this point. We think applications will continue as normal. Remember, if you have insect pressure, you have a choice to make. You either remove the insects or you lose your crop.

That's very important when it comes to actual usage of products. Our backdrop is positive. We believe the markets will continue like this, certainly this year and probably into next year as well. We don't see anything on the horizon that will change that. From our perspective, it is making sure that we can get those high-quality, newer technologies to the marketplace, certainly in the right timeframe, given all the disruptions we're seeing.

Laurent Favre
Managing Director, BNP Paribas

Thank you. As a follow-up, on pricing, you mentioned that you're lacking some increases from last year in the quarter. Last year in Q2, I think your pricing at group level was flat as it was in Q1 last year. I was wondering, maybe could you talk about the specific areas, either geographically or in terms of product categories, where we should expect, this, I guess, slowdown on pricing into Q2?

Mark Douglas
President and CEO, FMC Corporation

Yeah. I mean, in the US, we started to raise prices last year in Q2, so it should be a little more muted as we go through Q2, and then certainly into Q3 and into Q4. Latin America is not really an impact in Q2, a small amount, but you'll see that much more in Q3, certainly in Q4. Really I would focus on North America in Q2 on price. Everywhere else will be catching up as we lap ourselves in Q3 and Q4.

Laurent Favre
Managing Director, BNP Paribas

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Spector from UBS. Josh, please go ahead.

Josh Spector
Director of Equity Research, UBS

Yeah, thanks for taking my question. Just on the comments about China and the logistics and supply risk, just wondering how you're thinking about the potential risk this time versus a couple years ago. You know, perhaps what's changed to maybe limit the volume impact on you, your side or, you know, mitigate some of the cost pressure.

Mark Douglas
President and CEO, FMC Corporation

Yeah. Thanks, Josh. Listen, the playbook is pretty similar for us, procurement and supply chain working hand in hand on basically on a daily basis to understand the flow of goods. You have to remember, you obviously read about the major lockdown in Shanghai, but I believe something like 330 million people are in lockdown all over the country, and that's changing day-to-day. We're navigating day-to-day movement of goods from one facility to another or movement of goods to ports and out of the country. That's not dissimilar to what we've been doing over the last 2-3 years in China. We are seeing more congestion at the ports given just the amount of lockdowns.

It's a case of not just manufacturing the products in China or getting the intermediates or fine chemicals, but then getting the products out of China. That's where we're keeping a very close eye on what is happening with logistics. We're using different ports than traditional ports that we would use. We are using more air freight to get products out in time. I don't think it's anything what I would call different to what we've managed over the last two or three years, but the intensity is certainly higher than it has been as we've gone through Q4 and into Q1.

Josh Spector
Director of Equity Research, UBS

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from P.J. Juvekar from Citi. PJ, please go ahead. Hi, PJ. Please, could you confirm your line's not muted? Unfortunately, we can't hear anything from your line, so we will have to move to the next question. The next question comes from Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets. Joel, please go ahead.

Joel Jackson
Managing Director of Equity Research, BMO Capital Markets

Hi. Good morning. Mark, I don't wanna put words in your mouth, but last quarter we talked about slide seven, which is your upside and downside scenarios. You know, would you think that you're leaning more to the upside or the downside? I think you said leaning more to the upside. What I see now on the upside is to get to the upside scenario of $1.4 billion, you need to have higher price increases than what you would have thought, you know, a few months ago. Can you maybe talk about that a little bit?

Mark Douglas
President and CEO, FMC Corporation

Yeah. Sure, Joel. Listen, I mean, we're anchored on $1.4 billion of EBITDA for a reason. It is the highest probability we see for the results for this year. You know, it is a range that we've put in place, and it's there deliberately. The world is not simple right now, and I think everybody knows that. Certainly, when we were together on the February call, you know, we had this view, and we haven't really changed it. In fact, if anything, the Ukraine war situation has probably got worse from that perspective. Plus the COVID-19 lockdowns in China are worse than they were before. You can see rationally why we kept the range wide. It doesn't mean to say that we're still not anchored on the $1.4 billion. We are. You're right.

If things were to move to the upper end of this range, we would have to see, you know, a better mix, even more pricing than we've got today, and costs perhaps mitigating themselves with less FX impact. That's a lower probability than where we are at $1.4 billion . Also equally is a lower probability of the $1.32 billion at the low end of the range. I mean, you'd have to believe that things would get so severe that we couldn't offset that via price or that the market demand weakens because of significant weather issues in the regions. I think the upper end is a low probability, but so is the low end. That's why we're anchored on that $1.4 billion at the middle. When you see what we put there around the market growth, the strong demand, they're all relevant.

We are getting the mid-single digit price increases. Costs are elevated. We see that, but we are mitigating that. FX is a headwind, but once again, we're mitigating that with volume, which we've said we always would do. You know, we're trying to manage those supply disruptions. The only new one there is Russia and Ukraine, and we're managing that. You can see why we still kept the range wide, but there is a lower probability at each end of that range and a much higher probability in the middle.

Joel Jackson
Managing Director of Equity Research, BMO Capital Markets

Okay. Secondly here, I look at your margin guidance, like, so you had a bit of margin expansion in Q1, then you're gonna be guiding to some pretty tough margin contraction in Q2, some of the lowest margins you've had in a long time. Then Q3 and Q4, you're guiding to maybe modest margin contraction. Can you sort of help bridge that a bit? Expansion in Q1 year-over-year, then pretty sizable contraction in Q2, then kinda modest contraction for the H2 of the year.

Andrew Sandifer
EVP and CFO, FMC Corporation

Yeah, Joel, it's Andrew. Let me take that one. Look, I think Mark commented earlier, we moved price very aggressively in Q1 because we see this continuing surge of cost inflation. You know, we did have a stronger comparison and a positive comparison between price and cost, overall cost, not just COGS, in the Q1 , that will not carry through the full year. I think you also have to remember that Q1 of 2021 was a relatively weak quarter for us. It was a down quarter in revenue, which, you know, given the fixed cost we have in SG&A and R&D, resulted in a weaker comparison for margin.

While we're certainly pleased to see a positive EBITDA margin comparison Q1 2022 versus Q1 2021, just given the magnitude of price movement to offset costs we're talking about, the mathematical dilution of margins is pretty substantial. You know, dollar for dollar if we're dollar for dollar offset cost increases with price increases, we're gonna have a reducing percentage margin. It's just math. And you see that effect get more and more pronounced as you get into the latter part of the year. Continued very high levels of cost increase but then offsetting that, very strong price increases. Unfortunately, that net-net is on a percentage margin diluted. The pattern you're seeing, not unexpected. We do expect to see tougher comparisons on the EBITDA margin percent in the H2 .

I do think it speaks well for the long-term future here, which is eventually costs will level off. I don't believe we're in a position to call a bend in the curve. As Mark's highlighted, there's certainly a number of uncertainties, particularly around logistics and ocean freight coming in and out of China at the moment, that don't suggest that we've reached the bend in that curve yet. There is a bend that will come. With the stickiness of pricing in our industry, that will be the opportunity to see percentage margins begin to expand and recover. For the rest of this year, I think that the formula is clear. We priced aggressively. We moved to offset COGS inflation.

We used volume mix to offset FX as well as any investments in our SG&A and R&D growth. Overall deliver what we believe to be a very strong full-year performance in very challenging times.

Joel Jackson
Managing Director of Equity Research, BMO Capital Markets

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Christopher Parkinson of Mizuho Securities. Please go ahead.

Christopher Parkinson
Managing Director, Mizuho Securities

Great. Thank you so much. Hey, when investors take the time to actually parse out the growth rates for the diamides and, you know, biologicals perhaps at a lower base, and then subtract, you know, just the annual registration losses, just what's your current assessment of the remainder of the portfolio, so kind of the other core products as well as some new launch products? You know, and what are you most excited about for 2024? And, you know, perhaps an alternative way of asking that is just how would you generally characterize

Your aggregate growth contributions from more environmentally CPC formulations, you know, versus the past few years. Thank you.

Mark Douglas
President and CEO, FMC Corporation

Yeah. Thanks, Chris. Look, the diamides are growing pretty much as we've said they would grow. They're in the high single digits%. We saw that in Q1, we'll see that through the rest of the year. You know, when you look at our overall growth rates for the year, you can see that the rest of the portfolio is also growing strongly. Plant health, we talk about a lot because the biologicals investment there is doing really, really well. I would say that when I think about, you know, an average of what, somewhere around 7% revenue growth, the rest of the portfolio is growing in that mid-single digits% plus, and the new products that we're introducing are growing much faster than that. We have about a 1.5% drag on the portfolio just because of registration losses.

It's been a little lower in the H1 of this year. It might be a little lower than that full year, maybe 1% range, but it's about the right place to be. You can see that the portfolio overall is performing very well. You know, I talked about the $600 million of revenue from the products in the last five years, but I think, you know, it's the growth rate of that that's occurring. It was $400 million last year. It's $600 million this year. That means we got $200 million of brand new growth. So that's what we should be focused on. That is coming from not only the big products that we launch, whether it's, you know, a fluindapyr fungicide or an Isoflex herbicide.

Those are the bigger products that are in the multi-hundred million dollars range when they reach their peak size. What often gets overlooked is the amount of work we do on brand new formulations that come to market every year. You know, last year, I think we had something like $170-$180 million of products introduced within the year. It's slightly less than that this year, but it's still substantial. Don't underestimate the value that that brings. Those products are new. They are coming to market at higher margins, so you're improving the mix. It's all three things for us. It's the core, it's the local formulations that we do in our research facilities around the world. It's the very large pipeline products that come through.

Obviously the diamides continue in that high, you know, high single-digit range.

Christopher Parkinson
Managing Director, Mizuho Securities

Got it. Just a very quick follow-up. You know, Mark, before everything that's happening with the war, the EU is actually evaluating, you know, a host of chemistries, and they're two of them that are, you know, in terms of environmentally, you know, we'll say friendliness or lack thereof. Two of them, one in particular is a direct competitor of the diamides portfolio. You know, how is your team assessing, you know, the potential opportunity, you know, for the diamides, you know, based on the potential for further regulatory actions? I mean, it seems like it's already benefited, has been benefiting you over the last several years and potentially will benefit you. What are your updated thoughts on that and how that could potentially further contribute to that portfolio's growth? Thank you.

Mark Douglas
President and CEO, FMC Corporation

Yeah, look, I mean, as we think further forward on the diamides, not only are we growing ourselves, our new partner sales are growing nicely as well, roughly at the same rate that we are internally to FMC. Obviously, we're taking new products into new markets with new registrations. Our partners are doing the same. We are taking market share in insecticides with the diamides. You know, when you look at some of the older chemistries, whether it be, you know, the neonicotinoids or whether it be the carbamates, and now some of the other chemistries also are coming under pressure. In fact, some of our own chemistry is coming under pressure. We're losing registrations of indoxacarb in Europe this year, which is a great molecule but doesn't fit the profile for the EU.

That churn is happening in the industry, and we are taking advantage of that. We expect that to continue. It is one of the growth drivers for the diamides as we look forward for the next 10 years. That will not slow down. In fact, you could argue the replacement of older technologies will accelerate as we go through time, especially in jurisdictions like Europe. It is a positive for us. We see it that way, and we have taken advantage of it and will continue to do so.

Christopher Parkinson
Managing Director, Mizuho Securities

Great. Thanks for the color.

Mark Douglas
President and CEO, FMC Corporation

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Tony Jones at Redburn. Tony, please go ahead.

Tony Jones
Analyst, Redburn

Thanks, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. You talked about cost inflation should be peaking and reversing at some point, but when we look at the industry in the past, we've seen some companies give back price. What's your expectation from an FMC perspective? Because the portfolio today is very different to the last time we're in a period of cost inflation. Any thoughts on that would be really helpful. Thank you.

Mark Douglas
President and CEO, FMC Corporation

Thanks, Tony. Yeah, I mean, listen, you heard me comment earlier about the fact that we sell value, and that's something that we have always done and will continue to do. When you look at some of the chemistries in this space, they are very commoditized and almost index-linked. You can think of some of the non-selective herbicides which move up very quickly and they move down very quickly. Our portfolio historically has never done that, and you could argue that with the portfolio as it is today, it is even less likely to move quickly. You know, it's taken us a while to get to this point. We didn't recover all the costs last year.

Our intent is when we come out of this cycle that our margins will have in fact improved because of all the efforts that we've put in place with regards to SAP, etc. Our plan over the long haul is to make sure that these prices are sticky by selling the value aspect of the portfolio. We don't have the non-selective herbicides, we don't have that large generic portfolio. We do not expect to have that large swing in price as we come through the other side of this.

Tony Jones
Analyst, Redburn

Thank you. That's really helpful. Just a really quick follow-up. Can you indicate the rough additional SG&A cost, in absolute terms moving from Q1 to Q2, just so we can make it accurate in the model? Thanks.

Mark Douglas
President and CEO, FMC Corporation

Andrew, do we have that absolute number? I don't think we do we?

Andrew Sandifer
EVP and CFO, FMC Corporation

We don't. I would say that I think our SG&A as a percentage of sales was probably a bit light in Q1 relative to what you should expect in Q2.

Tony Jones
Analyst, Redburn

Thank you. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Piken from Cleveland Research. Michael, please go ahead. Hi, Michael. We're unable to hear you. Can you please check your line's not on mute? Unfortunately, we can't hear anything from Michael's line, so we'll move on to the next question. The next question is from Arun Viswanathan from RBC Capital Markets. Arun, please go ahead. Arun, your line is now open for your question. Please proceed.

Arun Viswanathan
Senior Equity Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Now? I'm here. Hello?

Operator

Arun, yes, we can hear you.

Arun Viswanathan
Senior Equity Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Can you hear me?

Operator

Please go ahead.

Arun Viswanathan
Senior Equity Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay, great. So it looks like you're guiding to about 6% EBITDA growth at the midpoint in 2022. And you know, understandably, there's a lot of challenges that you guys have detailed on costs and so on, and uncertainty. When you look out into 2023 and 2024, do you expect to get back into kind of a 7%-9% EBITDA growth rate and potentially even at the upper end of that, just given you know, some of the replacement that has to go on for lost production out of Ukraine? How should we think about you know, kind of the new outlook for what FMC should be within the range that you provided in the past, back in your 2018 Investor Day?

Mark Douglas
President and CEO, FMC Corporation

Yeah. Thanks, Arun. Listen, next year is the last year of our five-year plan. We're tracking well on revenue right in the middle of the range. We are slightly below on EBITDA. As Andrew and I were discussing the other day, since 2018 through 2021, we've had over $600 million of cost and FX headwinds, and we're only just slightly below the lower end of the range. Look, I'm not gonna guide 2023. It is way too early to guide 2023, but there's no reason to believe that if the situation starts to normalize, that we wouldn't be in that 7%-9% range. We're obviously not gonna cover the gap that we've had over the last couple of years, so we will likely end up somewhere at the low end of that range at the end of the five-year plan.

Commendable results to say the least, given everything that we've had. Frankly, this year's cost and FX is higher than we've seen at any point of the last five years in terms of this plan. We're swimming against a very strong tide and right at the edge of our range. We do feel that the company has performed well since 2018 on both metrics. After 2023, we are going to be putting together a new long-range plan. Whatever timeline that takes, we will make that decision. We would expect to come out with a new long-range plan towards the end of 2023, where we will be public with where the company is going over what timeframe.

For now, we're just sticking with where we are and, obviously, that 7%-9% EBITDA range is what we'll be aiming for next year.

Arun Viswanathan
Senior Equity Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

If I could make a follow-up to that, is there any discrete items, whether it be the deals that you guys have signed, you know, for partnerships or maybe some fungicide M&A or anything like that you could point to that could help us understand and frame kind of the longer term, you know, growth possibility?

Mark Douglas
President and CEO, FMC Corporation

No, listen, I think from a portfolio perspective, I think you've got all the pieces of information that we've given out in terms of the pipeline growth, the diamides longer term view, the portfolio itself, the core portfolio. At this point in time, obviously we're always looking at M&A from a technology perspective. They tend to play out over the long haul. It wouldn't impact the near term, but we are looking at a number of items on the technology side of M&A. I don't think there's anything there that we have that you don't have in terms of trying to model where the future growth of the company is.

I think obviously as we go through this planning cycle, we'll have a much better view at the end of 2023 around where the company will be going over the next decade.

Arun Viswanathan
Senior Equity Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Thanks.

Operator

Our next question will come from Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs. Adam, please go ahead.

Adam Samuelson
VP of Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Yes, thanks. Good morning, everyone.

Mark Douglas
President and CEO, FMC Corporation

Good morning, Adam.

Adam Samuelson
VP of Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Morning. I guess some of this might be tricky because of where you are in the season, but I was just looking at your thoughts on channel inventories. It does seem like there was a good amount of pre-buying in a lot of different regions ahead of maybe an expectation of additional price increases, concerns around supply chain and just if you could take a tour around the world about where you think channel inventory sit as you're going into certainly the northern hemisphere growing season and in Brazil where you're more off-season, just how you think activity levels and restocking sits there.

Mark Douglas
President and CEO, FMC Corporation

Yeah, sure. Thank you. You know, generally speaking, we are not concerned about channel inventories. There are a couple of pockets in the world. One we alluded to, which is India, in Q4. Weather patterns were not great, and there is a reduction in rice acres in India. You saw some of the comments about strong growth in ASEAN and Australia are offset by India. We're taking the opportunity to reduce our channel inventories in India at the beginning of the year. We expect that to normalize pretty quickly as we go through the H1 here. Outside of that, Northern Hemisphere, I don't think we're carrying excess inventories as we're going into the channel into the seasons.

Recommendations from our group are that we expect normal pest pressures for the years going forward in Europe and in the U.S. here. We're not seeing anything that we would say is concerning at all. They seem pretty normal to us. In Latin America, for us, normal. Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Andean, we're where we should be at this point of the season. Demand has been very good for us. Our growth rates are in line with how we're penetrating the market. You'll recall on the call here, I just talked about the fact that we've been spending a lot of time and effort improving our market access into the soy complex in Brazil, and that's where our growth is coming from. Whether it be with insecticides or some of the newer herbicides that we have in place.

We're not worried about where our inventory levels are at all in Brazil or Argentina.

Adam Samuelson
VP of Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Just a quick follow-up on the decision to cease operations or sell in Russia that kind of applies to about $75 million of business there last year. Is that something? Is that all going away? I presume there's a tail to winding down activities, so it doesn't just fall to zero immediately. I guess the corollary question would be in Ukraine, what's the size of business in Ukraine and just what's the expectation on volumes there, just given a lot of the planting disruptions and logistical issues of getting product into the country?

Mark Douglas
President and CEO, FMC Corporation

Sure. I'll let Andrew comment on the actual numbers. We are working through what the financial impact will be, both from a P&L and a balance sheet impact. We do believe that we have opportunities to offset, maybe not all of that impact, but certainly the vast majority of it. We're working through that right now. I would say the Ukraine, we're expecting very low planted acres, especially obviously in the east. Our groups are active. Our salespeople are out. Growers are planting. It's just under very, very difficult conditions. Getting material into the country, we are doing that. It's once you're in country, it's working through distribution, et cetera. It's not, as you can imagine, particularly easy. I would expect acreage to be down significantly in the Ukraine.

We will obviously do everything we can to get material into that country and make sure that they can plant every acre they can. Andrew, do you just wanna comment on the rough impacts?

Andrew Sandifer
EVP and CFO, FMC Corporation

Sure. Just some dimensions for you on Russia and Ukraine. Between the two countries is about $100 million in revenue in 2021, about 70% in Russia, 30% Ukraine. Yeah, the Russian business we did operate in the Q1 . You know, what was built into our budgets for the remaining three quarters of the year was about $20 million-$25 million of EBITDA contribution from the Russian business. That's the headwind we've got to address with either redirecting the material no longer being sent to that market to other markets or finding other opportunities. That's certainly a part of our upside/downside discussion that Mark went through in his prepared comments about the guidance for this year. Regarding Ukraine, as Mark mentioned, we are operating.

We do not expect it to hit, you know, our initial expectations for the year, but the business is operating. We're continuing to ship, and we will continue to support Ukrainian farmers the best we can. I do think you should expect that we will take a restructuring charge in the Q2 , for the exit of the Russia business. We are not in a position right now, to finalize that number, given that we're still in the process of finalizing on the exact pieces of our exit there. There will be a largely non-cash restructuring charge in the Q2 , to reflect the exit of the Russia business.

Adam Samuelson
VP of Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

All right. That's all really helpful. I appreciate it. Thank you.

Andrew Sandifer
EVP and CFO, FMC Corporation

Mm-hmm. Thank you.

Operator

Our final question on the call today comes from Michael Sison from Wells Fargo. Michael, please go ahead.

Michael Sison
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Wells Fargo

Hey, guys. You sort of noted that you felt there could be growth in 2023 in terms of the ag markets. Any thoughts behind that and why you think, you know, markets could maybe extend the cycle for another year or so?

Mark Douglas
President and CEO, FMC Corporation

Yeah. I mean, listen, we've gone through a period of very low growth in the ag sector over the last 3-4 years. Take a step back and look at what is happening on soft commodity prices. What would you have to believe that would drive soft commodities lower right now? I mean, certainly the Russia-Ukraine situation is driving cereals. You've had weather impacts in Latin America last season in the south of Brazil, north of Argentina. We're watching weather very closely around the world. There is always a weather impact somewhere that disrupts the market. That's just a fact of life. You've got to believe that soft commodities right now are gonna stay elevated. And that being the case, that's generally a good backdrop for us as crop protection input providers.

We're looking at 2023 as. It is very early. We're only in the start of May, but we're looking at 2023 as an extension of 2022. That's how we're thinking of it right now. It should be a positive backdrop. We don't see any negatives out there that is gonna fundamentally shift this. 2023 should be a good year.

Michael Sison
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Wells Fargo

Got it. I think you're trying to reduce some of your manufacturing footprint in China. Have you made any meaningful progress?

Mark Douglas
President and CEO, FMC Corporation

Yeah. Mike, you know, when we've talked about this subject before, you know, I always allude back to the 2015 timeframe when we bought Cheminova. Prior to that, we were about 95%-90% dependent on China for pretty much all the raw materials, intermediates, fine and specialty chemicals. We've been working, and we've had a program to really ensure that we have a balanced supply chain and manufacturing footprint around the world, not only with the Cheminova acquisition, but with the DuPont acquisitions as well. Today, we're probably in that 43%-45% range dependent upon China. Our aim is to get that to sub-40% within the next year or so. We've done a very good job of setting up manufacturing with the assets, whether it be in India or Europe.

We've shifted some toll manufacturing into Europe and Mexico, as an example, to feed Brazil. We will continue to do that. It is something that frankly is never ending. I would like to get it into the 30% range. I don't know whether my manufacturing and procurement people would agree with that. I think if we could get a China dependency on 30%+ would be almost ideal for us, with a good balance between India and Europe and the U.S. being the rest. I think we'd be in great shape by then.

Michael Sison
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Wells Fargo

Got it. Thank you.

Mark Douglas
President and CEO, FMC Corporation

Thank you.

Zack Zaki
Director of Investor Relations, FMC Corporation

Okay, thank you very much. That is all the time that we have for the call today. Thank you, and have a good day.

Operator

This concludes the FMC Corporation conference call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

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